Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

Haynes International (HAYN) – Tempering Expectations for the Remainder of FY 2024 and FY 2025

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, August 05, 2024

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Third quarter financial results. Haynes reported third-quarter fiscal 2024 net income of $8.1 million or $0.63 per share compared to $8.8 million or $0.68 per share during the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA was $17.1 million compared to $18.7 million during the prior year period and declined as a percentage of net revenues. Third-quarter results were negatively impacted by raw material headwinds and lower mill production volumes due to fewer orders and company initiatives to reduce inventory.

Updating estimates. We have lowered our 2024 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $68.5 million and $2.52, respectively, from $77.3 million and $3.00. The revisions reflect third quarter financial results and management expectations that fourth quarter revenue and earnings will be like the third quarter due to the unfavorable impact of lower production volumes. Our 2025 EBITDA and EPS estimates were lowered to $90.5 million and $3.82, respectively, from $99.5 million and $4.15 to reflect lower revenue and margin expectations in 2025, particularly during the first half of the year.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Cumulus Media (CMLS) – Green Shoots Wither Amidst Economic Uncertainty

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, August 05, 2024

Cumulus Media (NASDAQ: CMLS) is an audio-first media company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. Cumulus Media engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 406 owned-and-operated radio stations across 86 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, CNN, the AP, the Academy of Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across more than 9,500 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through the Cumulus Podcast Network, its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. Cumulus Media provides advertisers with personal connections, local impact and national reach through broadcast and on-demand digital, mobile, social, and voice-activated platforms, as well as integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, full-service audio solutions, industry-leading research and insights, and live event experiences. Cumulus Media is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees. For more information visit www.cumulusmedia.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Mixed Q2 results. The company reported revenue of $204.8 million, slightly lighter than our expectations of $206.2M. Due to cost cuts, adj. EBITDA was $25.2 million, finishing ahead of our estimates by $2.1M. Digital revenues advanced 5%, but was slower than the 7% in the first quarter. 

Lackluster pacing outlook. Management indicated that third quarter revenue pacing is disappointingly down low single digits, in spite of the anticipated influx of Political advertising. We believe that spot advertising is down mid single digits, with Network likely to be down double digits, similar to the second quarter. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

ACCO Brands (ACCO) – 2Q 2024: A Closer Look

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, August 05, 2024

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Segment results. Americas revenue totaled $292.3 million in Q2, a decrease of 13.1% from the prior year period. Comparable sales were down 12.7%. International revenue was $146.0 million in Q2, a decrease of 7.1% from the prior period. Comparable sales decreased 5.1%. While revenue was modestly below our estimates, largely due to soft demand for business and consumer office products and a shift from lower margin products, we believe the Company’s outlook is favorable.

Cost reduction efforts. The company made significant progress towards its cost reduction target of $60 million in annualized savings, with $10 million in cost reductions realized so far this year, and $20 million of savings expected for full year 2024. Notably, the Company reduced inventory levels by 17% from the prior year with its technology enabled SKU rationalization.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Haynes International (HAYN) – Third Quarter Negatively Impacted by Lower Production and Raw Material Headwinds

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, August 02, 2024

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Third quarter financial results. Haynes reported third-quarter fiscal 2024 net income of $8.1 million or $0.63 per share compared to $8.8 million or $0.68 per share during the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA was $17.1 million compared to $18.7 million during the prior year period and declined as a percentage of net revenues. Third-quarter results were negatively impacted by raw material headwinds and lower mill production volumes due to fewer orders and company initiatives to reduce inventory. Strong operating cash flow of $52.5 million supported reducing the balance of the company’s credit facility by $24.2 million during the first nine months of fiscal 2024.

Merger Update. With respect to Haynes’ proposed merger with North American Stainless, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Acerinox S.A., required approvals in the United States have been obtained. Following favorable decisions by European countries reviewing the transaction from a foreign direct investment (FDI) perspective, the company expects to obtain remaining required clearances from the U.K. and Austria in time for a fourth calendar quarter 2024 transaction close.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

FreightCar America (RAIL) – Multi-Year Tank Car Conversion Contract Provides a Solid Path Toward Tank Car Production

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, August 02, 2024

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Expansion into tank car conversions. FreightCar America has entered into a multi-year contract to convert over 1,000 existing DOT-111 tank cars to DOT-117R (retrofit) tank cars over a two-year period. In addition to further diversifying its product offerings, the expansion into tank car conversions provides a solid path toward M-1002 tank car facility certification by the Association of American Railroads and the production of DOT-117 tank cars. 

Ensuring the safe transportation of flammable liquids. The completed tank cars will receive new exterior tank jackets, thermal protection, full height head shields, top fittings protection and upgraded bottom outlet valves. As part of a federally mandated program, all tank cars transporting Class 3 flammable liquids, such as refined products, crude oil and ethanol, are required to meet DOT-117 or equivalent specifications by May 1, 2029.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) – A Strategic Sale

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, August 02, 2024

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Cab Structures. Yesterday, after the market close, Commercial Vehicle Group (CVG) announced the sale of its Kings Mountain, NC Cab Structures business. This is another step in the Company’s strategic plan to lessen the impact of the highly cyclical Class 8 truck business.

Details. Net proceeds of the transaction are expected to be $40 million, with closure in the second half of 2024. We expect the majority of the net proceeds to be used for debt paydown and other general corporate purposes. CVG did not release unit financial performance, but we do expect management to update its full-year 2024 outlook to reflect the impact of the business unit divesture during its 2Q24 earnings conference call on August 6th.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

ACCO Brands (ACCO) – Reports 2Q24 Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, August 02, 2024

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2Q24 Results. Reported results continue to be impacted by soft demand for ACCO products. In addition, the previously disclosed exit of certain lower margin business, primarily in the back-to-school categories, and a one-time impairment charge related to goodwill and intangible assets negatively impacted reported results.

Details. Revenue of $438.3 million was down 11.2% on a reported basis y-o-y, with comp sales off 10.2%, reflecting softer global business and consumer demand, although computer accessories saw growth. We had projected revenue of $455 million, in-line with consensus. Reported operating loss was $111.2 million reflecting $165.2 million of non-cash impairment charges. Adjusted operating income was $64.6 million, down from $66.2 million in 2Q23. GAAP net loss was $125.2 million, or $1.29/sh, with adjusted net income of $36.6 million, or $0.37/sh. In 2Q23, ACCO reported net income of $26.4 million, or $0.27/sh, and adjusted net income of $36.5 million, or $0.38/sh.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF) – Tack On Another Approval

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, August 01, 2024

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Another State. MustGrow announced the Company has received the Idaho State Department of Agriculture approval for TerraSante, allowing the product to commence sales in the state. The state follows the existing Organic OMRI Listed certifications in Oregon and Washington. Idaho now joins the list of states to authorize product sales, including the aforementioned Oregon and Washington and California.

Market Size. Idaho provided approximately $1.3 billion in crop production from potatoes in 2023, an increase from $1.2 billion in 2022, as potatoes are the state’s top crop. Other commodities the state provides includes barley, alfalfa hay, peppermint oil, and food trout. Overall, the state’s crop production was $3.3 billion in 2021.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

GeoVax Labs (GOVX) – Gedeptin Phase 2 Head and Neck Trial Design Announced

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, August 01, 2024

GeoVax Labs, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing novel therapies and vaccines for solid tumor cancers and many of the world’s most threatening infectious diseases. The company’s lead program in oncology is a novel oncolytic solid tumor gene-directed therapy, Gedeptin®, presently in a multicenter Phase 1/2 clinical trial for advanced head and neck cancers. GeoVax’s lead infectious disease candidate is GEO-CM04S1, a next-generation COVID-19 vaccine targeting high-risk immunocompromised patient populations. Currently in three Phase 2 clinical trials, GEO-CM04S1 is being evaluated as a primary vaccine for immunocompromised patients such as those suffering from hematologic cancers and other patient populations for whom the current authorized COVID-19 vaccines are insufficient, and as a booster vaccine in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). In addition, GEO-CM04S1 is in a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating the vaccine as a more robust, durable COVID-19 booster among healthy patients who previously received the mRNA vaccines. GeoVax has a leadership team who have driven significant value creation across multiple life science companies over the past several decades.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Gedeptin Will Be Tested As A Neoadjuvent. GeoVax announced the design of the Phase 2 trial testing Gedeptin in head and neck cancer. As planned, a Clinical Advisory Panel completed its data review from the clinical trials and made its design recommendation. The trial will test Gedeptin in combination with an immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) before surgery in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients after first recurrence. The trial is expected to start in 1H25.

Trial Will Use A Single Cycle Of Gedeptin Before Surgery. The trial will enroll patients with HNSCC after first relapse. Patients will be treated with a single cycle of Gedeptin/fludarabine and a checkpoint inhibitor, followed by surgery. This adds Gedeptin’s intracellular activation of a chemotherapy agent to kill cancer cells with the immune response of the checkpoint inhibitor. The planned enrollment is 36 patients with a primary endpoint of pathological response rate.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

FAT Brands (FAT) – Overview of 2Q24 Operating Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, August 01, 2024

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Note: FAT Brands has entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement with Noble Capital Markets relating to the potential sale of up to $10.335 million of Class A common stock and/or 8.25% Series B Cumulative Preferred stock. As a result, this report will just focus on a review of FAT Brands’ second quarter operating results.

2Q24 Results. FAT’s 2Q24 results were very similar to 1Q24 results. While we had hoped for some sequential improvement, given the overall industry challenges seen so far this reporting season, relatively flat results are not too bad. Revenue totaled $152 million, flat sequentially and up 42.4% y-o-y. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $15.7 million versus $23.1 million last year, with the decline reflecting lower employee retention credits this quarter. FAT reported a net loss of $41.3 million, or $2.43 per share, compared to a loss of $8.7 million, or a loss of $0.53/sh in 2Q23.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

DLH Holdings (DLHC) – A Look into the Third Quarter

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, August 01, 2024

DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

3Q Results. Revenue was reported at $100.7 million, below our estimate of $103 million and down from the prior year of $102.2 million. Net income was $1.1 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, compared to $1.7 million, or $0.12 last year. EBITDA was roughly $10.0 million versus $11.4 million in the prior year, or a margin of 10.0% and 11.1%, respectfully, in range of management’s expectations.

Delays. The GRSi acquisition continues to experience anticipated runoff of DLH’s small business set-aside awards, as these contracts transitioned towards small businesses impacting overall revenue. The government evaluation process also has resulted in delays for new business revenue for the Company in fiscal 2024. However, with the budgets passed earlier in the year for various government departments, including the VA and HHS, we expect DLH to be awarded new contracts sooner rather than later.


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Codere Online (CDRO) – Casino Games A Key Driver

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, August 01, 2024

Codere Online refers, collectively, to Codere Online Luxembourg, S.A. and its subsidiaries. Codere Online launched in 2014 as part of the renowned casino operator Codere Group. Codere Online offers online sports betting and online casino through its state-of-the art website and mobile application. Codere currently operates in its core markets of Spain, Italy, Mexico, Colombia, Panama and the City of Buenos Aires (Argentina). Codere Online’s online business is complemented by Codere Group’s physical presence throughout Latin America, forming the foundation of the leading omnichannel gaming and casino presence in the region.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Adj. EBITDA positive. Q2 overachieved expectations with revenue growth a strong 39% to €54.4 million (vs our €47.6 million estimate) and with positive adj. EBITDA of €1.3 million (vs. our flat estimate). The results benefited from a favorable sports calendar, as well as strong customer growth for its casino games. Casino revenue accounted for 59% of total company revenue, up from 56% in Q1. 

Spain and Mexico deliver strong revenue performance. The company exhibited favorable operating momentum in its latest Q2 quarter. Net gaming revenue increased a solid 39% to €54.4 million, nicely above our estimate of €47.6 million. The quarterly revenue represented a sequential quarterly revenue improvement from the first quarter at €53.0 million and an acceleration in revenue growth from 34% in Q1. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

SKYX Platforms (SKYX) – Coming to Home Depot

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Collaboration with Home Depot. Yesterday, the company announced a collaboration with Home Depot, the industry leader in the home improvement market. The announcement marks the first time the company’s products will be available at a big box retailer. In addition, all of the company’s current product offerings will be available on the Home Depot website. 

Step forward for professional sales channel. In addition to serving retail consumers, Home Depot is a leading supplier for professional contractors. As such, we believe the inclusion of SKYX products at Home Depot could accelerate the adoption of the smart ceiling receptacle and SkyPlug products by commercial contractors.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.