The ODP Corporation (ODP) – An Overreaction To A Difficult Quarter


Thursday, August 08, 2024

Office Depot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies a range of office products and services. It offers merchandise, such as general office supplies, computer supplies, business machines and related supplies, and office furniture through its chain of office supply stores under the Office Depot, Foray, Ativa, Break Escapes, Worklife, and Christopher Lowell brand names. The company also provides graphic design, printing, reproduction, mailing, shipping, and other services through design, print, and ship centers. It has operations throughout North America, Europe, Asia, and Central America. The company also sells its products and services through direct mail catalogs, contract sales force, Internet sites, and retail stores, through a mix of company-owned operations, joint ventures, licensing and franchise agreements, alliances, and other arrangements. As of December 31, 2008, Office Depot operated 1,267 North American retail division office supply stores and 162 international division retail stores, as well as participated under licensing and merchandise arrangements in 98 stores. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2Q24 Results. The Company reported lackluster operating results that were largely driven by a challenging macroeconomic environment. Revenue of $1.72 billion, adj. EBITDA of $57 million, and net income of negative $4 million, or negative $0.12 per share, all experienced y-o-y decreases. Notably, ODP shares were down roughly 35% at market close, which, in our opinion was an overreaction, spurred on by recessionary concerns.

Veyer gains traction. During the earnings call management highlighted that Veyer received a verbal agreement from a large e-commerce company that has the potential to nearly double the segment’s top line. Notably, the agreement pertains to warehousing and the company’s well established supply chain. Importantly, we view the contract as a significant development that has the ability to favorably alter the Company’s trajectory.


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V2X (VVX) – Set Up For 2H24 Growth


Wednesday, August 07, 2024

For more than 70 years, Vectrus has provided critical mission support for our customers’ toughest operational challenges. As a high-performing organization with exceptional talent, deep domain knowledge, a history of long-term customer relationships, and groundbreaking technical expertise, we deliver innovative, mission-matched solutions for our military and government customers worldwide. Whether it’s base operations support, supply chain and logistics, IT mission support, engineering and digital integration, security, or maintenance, repair and overhaul, our customers count on us for on-target solutions that increase efficiency, reduce costs, improve readiness, and strengthen national security. Vectrus is headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colo., and includes about 8,100 employees spanning 205 locations in 28 countries. In 2021, Vectrus generated sales of $1.8 billion. For more information, visit the company’s website at www.vectrus.com or connect with Vectrus on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2Q24 Results. Record revenue of $1.07 billion, up 9.7% from $977.9 million in 2Q23. We had estimated $1.02 billion. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $72.3 million, or a 6.7% margin, compared to $77.8 million and 8.0% last year, driven by contract mix. V2X reported a GAAP net loss of $6.5 million, or a loss of $0.21/sh, versus net income of $1.8 million, or $0.06/sh, in 2Q23. Adjusted EPS was $0.83 versus $1.10. We had estimated adjusted EPS at $0.87.

Revenue Drivers. Revenue growth in the quarter was achieved through continued expansion of existing business in the Pacific and Middle East regions, as well as new programs. Revenue growth in both areas grew by 29% year-over-year. Notably, in the quarter V2X had over $500 million of on contract growth.


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Information Services Group (III) – In a More Stable Environment


Wednesday, August 07, 2024

ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For additional information, visit www.ISG-One.com

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Improved Metrics. Although performance decreased from the prior year, the Company improved sequentially. Stable revenue and lower costs led to higher a gross margin of 39.5% compared to 36.1% in the first quarter. The increased margin led to profitability in the quarter compared to a net loss last quarter. These improvements show ISG’s efficiency in the continued down environment while the Company prepares for clients to resuming spending, in our view.

Geographies. Although the regions are down from the prior year, most of ISG’s geographies are showing stability. Both the Americas and Europe are experiencing stability in their pipelines even as the uncertain macro environment continues. We would note management believes spending will resume more quickly in the Americas segment, primarily the U.S., with a return to spending as soon as the fourth quarter.


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GeoVax Labs (GOVX) – GeoVax Highlights Trial Progress In 2Q24 Report


Wednesday, August 07, 2024

GeoVax Labs, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing novel therapies and vaccines for solid tumor cancers and many of the world’s most threatening infectious diseases. The company’s lead program in oncology is a novel oncolytic solid tumor gene-directed therapy, Gedeptin®, presently in a multicenter Phase 1/2 clinical trial for advanced head and neck cancers. GeoVax’s lead infectious disease candidate is GEO-CM04S1, a next-generation COVID-19 vaccine targeting high-risk immunocompromised patient populations. Currently in three Phase 2 clinical trials, GEO-CM04S1 is being evaluated as a primary vaccine for immunocompromised patients such as those suffering from hematologic cancers and other patient populations for whom the current authorized COVID-19 vaccines are insufficient, and as a booster vaccine in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). In addition, GEO-CM04S1 is in a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating the vaccine as a more robust, durable COVID-19 booster among healthy patients who previously received the mRNA vaccines. GeoVax has a leadership team who have driven significant value creation across multiple life science companies over the past several decades.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

GeoVax Made Significant Advances In 2Q24. GeoVax reported a 2Q24 loss of $5.1 million or $(1.99) per share. The company reviewed the progress made during the quarter, including the DARPA grant for the Phase 2 CM04S1 trial, two CM04S1 trials in immunocompromised cancer patients, and announcement of the Phase 2 Gedeptin trial design.

Financial Results Reflect First Grant Revenues. During 2Q, GeoVax recognized $0.3 million in revenues from work related to the Phase 2 CM04S1 trial. Revenue is recognized as the work is completed on a cost-reimbursement basis, with billings recorded as receivables. The company had $1.6 million in cash on June 30 and plans to raise capital in the near future.


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Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) – Q2 Results: A Closer Look


Wednesday, August 07, 2024

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Electrical Systems. To our surprise, the segment had a difficult quarter, revenue decreased $13.5 million, or 21.2%. The decrease was largely attributed to a slow down in the construction and agriculture industries, and new contract wins taking longer to ramp up and at lower than expected volumes. In our view, the company is well positioned to capitalize on the industry rebound, anticipated to take place in 2025 & 2026.

Vehicle Solutions. The segment experienced a decrease of $11.8 million, or 7.7%, from the prior year period, which was primarily driven by softer demand and reorganization. Notably, the company anticipated a more drastic decline in the business and closed a plant, shifting manufacturing to three other existing facilities, which should improve cost structure over the long-term.


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Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF) – Bringing the Final Step In-House


Wednesday, August 07, 2024

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Lithium carbonate production at the pilot plant. Century Lithium successfully added a lithium carbonate stage at the company’s lithium extraction facility which is part of the company’s Angel Island Mine project. Recall that Century recently changed the name of its Clayton Valley Lithium project to Angel Island Mine to distinguish it from other projects. Previously, concentrated lithium solutions from the pilot plant were treated by Saltworks Inc. at their facility in Richmond, British Columbia to produce samples of battery grade lithium carbonate.

Following through on the feasibility study. Adding the lithium carbonate stage at the pilot plant satisfies one of the recommendations contained in the recently published feasibility study. Being able to produce battery grade lithium on site further demonstrates the commercial viability of the project and will also help the company to better optimize the process from the direct lithium extraction (DLE) phase through to production of the final product. Century successfully treated 200 liters of concentrated lithium solution and produced 20 kilograms of high-grade lithium carbonate on site.


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Bit Digital (BTBT) – July Production Released


Wednesday, August 07, 2024

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

AI and Staking. Bit Digital had 256 servers generating revenue during the quarter and earned an estimated $4.3 million of revenue during the month. The staking side had approximately 17,184 ETH actively staked, flat with last month, and earned a blended APY of approximately 3.3% on its staked ETH in the month of July, slightly down from last month’s 3.5%.

Mining Side. The Company produced 60.5 BTC in the month, a slight 1.9% decrease from the previous month. The active hash rate was roughly 2.46 EH/s, a decline from 2.57 EH/s in June. With the active goal of 6.0 EH/s at the end of 2024, we anticipate a ramp up in the hash rate during the last few months of the year.


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Information Services Group (III) – A Look at the Second Quarter


Tuesday, August 06, 2024

ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For additional information, visit www.ISG-One.com

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2Q Results. Reported revenues totaled $64.3 million, slightly below our estimate of $65 million. Clients are continuing to delay projects, as these are being pushed further. Net income was better than expected at $2.0 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, compared to $2.3 million or $0.05 last year. We estimated a net loss of $0.2 million or breakeven EPS.

Silver Lining. The continued headwind of client decision making has offered a light at the end of the tunnel for management. An increase in contract value through ISG Tango, now exceeding $4 billion from $2.6 billion in the previous quarter, offers a sign that clients are allocating more towards projects in our view. The increase in overall contract value showcases management’s belief in increasing business spending as the year progresses.


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Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) – First Look at 2Q24


Tuesday, August 06, 2024

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Still Challenging. 2Q24 revenue declined 12.3% y-o-y to $229.9 million due to softening global customer demand. We had projected $237.5 million. Operating income was $0.8 million and adjusted operating income totaled $5.7 million, down 65.9% y-o-y. CVGI reported a net loss of $1.6 million, or $0.05/sh, and adjusted net income of $2.1 million, or EPS of $0.06. We had forecast adjusted EPS of $0.21. Adjusted EBITDA of $10 million was down 51.9% y-o-y and short of our $16 million estimate.

Drivers. Second quarter results were challenged due to multiple factors. In particular, continued softening in the construction and agricultural end markets and reduced volumes in new business win launches, impacting the key growth segment in Electrical Systems. CVG also experienced operational inefficiencies in the Vehicle Solutions segment resulting from a new product launch with a major customer across multiple sites, as well as activities to prepare the Cab Structures business for sale.


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Haynes International (HAYN) – Tempering Expectations for the Remainder of FY 2024 and FY 2025


Monday, August 05, 2024

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Third quarter financial results. Haynes reported third-quarter fiscal 2024 net income of $8.1 million or $0.63 per share compared to $8.8 million or $0.68 per share during the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA was $17.1 million compared to $18.7 million during the prior year period and declined as a percentage of net revenues. Third-quarter results were negatively impacted by raw material headwinds and lower mill production volumes due to fewer orders and company initiatives to reduce inventory.

Updating estimates. We have lowered our 2024 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $68.5 million and $2.52, respectively, from $77.3 million and $3.00. The revisions reflect third quarter financial results and management expectations that fourth quarter revenue and earnings will be like the third quarter due to the unfavorable impact of lower production volumes. Our 2025 EBITDA and EPS estimates were lowered to $90.5 million and $3.82, respectively, from $99.5 million and $4.15 to reflect lower revenue and margin expectations in 2025, particularly during the first half of the year.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Cumulus Media (CMLS) – Green Shoots Wither Amidst Economic Uncertainty


Monday, August 05, 2024

Cumulus Media (NASDAQ: CMLS) is an audio-first media company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. Cumulus Media engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 406 owned-and-operated radio stations across 86 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, CNN, the AP, the Academy of Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across more than 9,500 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through the Cumulus Podcast Network, its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. Cumulus Media provides advertisers with personal connections, local impact and national reach through broadcast and on-demand digital, mobile, social, and voice-activated platforms, as well as integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, full-service audio solutions, industry-leading research and insights, and live event experiences. Cumulus Media is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees. For more information visit www.cumulusmedia.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Mixed Q2 results. The company reported revenue of $204.8 million, slightly lighter than our expectations of $206.2M. Due to cost cuts, adj. EBITDA was $25.2 million, finishing ahead of our estimates by $2.1M. Digital revenues advanced 5%, but was slower than the 7% in the first quarter. 

Lackluster pacing outlook. Management indicated that third quarter revenue pacing is disappointingly down low single digits, in spite of the anticipated influx of Political advertising. We believe that spot advertising is down mid single digits, with Network likely to be down double digits, similar to the second quarter. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

ACCO Brands (ACCO) – 2Q 2024: A Closer Look


Monday, August 05, 2024

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Segment results. Americas revenue totaled $292.3 million in Q2, a decrease of 13.1% from the prior year period. Comparable sales were down 12.7%. International revenue was $146.0 million in Q2, a decrease of 7.1% from the prior period. Comparable sales decreased 5.1%. While revenue was modestly below our estimates, largely due to soft demand for business and consumer office products and a shift from lower margin products, we believe the Company’s outlook is favorable.

Cost reduction efforts. The company made significant progress towards its cost reduction target of $60 million in annualized savings, with $10 million in cost reductions realized so far this year, and $20 million of savings expected for full year 2024. Notably, the Company reduced inventory levels by 17% from the prior year with its technology enabled SKU rationalization.


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Haynes International (HAYN) – Third Quarter Negatively Impacted by Lower Production and Raw Material Headwinds


Friday, August 02, 2024

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Third quarter financial results. Haynes reported third-quarter fiscal 2024 net income of $8.1 million or $0.63 per share compared to $8.8 million or $0.68 per share during the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA was $17.1 million compared to $18.7 million during the prior year period and declined as a percentage of net revenues. Third-quarter results were negatively impacted by raw material headwinds and lower mill production volumes due to fewer orders and company initiatives to reduce inventory. Strong operating cash flow of $52.5 million supported reducing the balance of the company’s credit facility by $24.2 million during the first nine months of fiscal 2024.

Merger Update. With respect to Haynes’ proposed merger with North American Stainless, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Acerinox S.A., required approvals in the United States have been obtained. Following favorable decisions by European countries reviewing the transaction from a foreign direct investment (FDI) perspective, the company expects to obtain remaining required clearances from the U.K. and Austria in time for a fourth calendar quarter 2024 transaction close.


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