Cigna has reportedly withdrawn from a significant merger with Humana, citing failed negotiations on pricing as the primary reason, according to insider sources. The deal, if successful, would have propelled the combined entity’s value beyond $140 billion, positioning it as a major player in the insurance sector. The potential mega-deal would have undoubtedly faced scrutiny from regulators, especially in light of regulatory blocks on similar consolidations in the health insurance sector six years ago. Cigna, undeterred by the merger setback, has announced plans to repurchase $10 billion worth of shares, a move deemed by management as a value-enhancing use of capital given their belief that Cigna shares are currently undervalued.
Connecticut-based Cigna, whose shares rose 12.1% to $290.07 in premarket trading on Monday, is down approximately 22% this year, experiencing a 10% decline since late November when reports of the deal talks with Humana surfaced. The company remains open to the prospect of a future merger with Humana, asserting confidence in the deal’s regulatory feasibility despite the Biden administration’s stringent stance on mergers.
Both Cigna and Humana are significant players in the health insurance sector, each with distinct operations. Cigna, a global health service company, has a diversified portfolio covering insurance, pharmacy benefits, behavioral health, and related services. The company’s strategic decision to explore the sale of its Medicare Advantage business, which caters to government health insurance for individuals aged 65 and older, indicates ongoing efforts to refine its business focus.
On the other hand, Humana, a prominent health and well-being company, specializes in health insurance and wellness solutions. The potential merger with Cigna would have endowed the combined entity with increased scale, positioning it as a formidable competitor against larger U.S. health insurance players such as UnitedHealth Group and CVS Health.
As Cigna navigates the aftermath of the abandoned merger, the company’s shift towards share buybacks and potential bolt-on acquisitions aligning with its strategies reflects a strategic realignment. The health insurance landscape remains dynamic, and Cigna’s future moves, including a possible revisiting of a Humana combination, will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of both companies in this ever-evolving sector.
Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management Extend a $5.8 Billion Lifeline to Struggling Macy’s Inc.
In a bold move to rescue the iconic retailer, Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management have proposed a buyout offer of $5.8 billion for Macy’s Inc. This strategic move comes at a time when Macy’s has faced a challenging year, with slumping sales and increasing competition from online retailers.
The buyout offer values Macy’s at $21 per share, a significant premium compared to its recent close at just over $17 per share. Macy’s shares closed at a little over $17 on Friday, representing a 17% decline since the beginning of the year. However, the market responded positively to the news, with a 15% increase in premarket trading on Monday.
Despite the retailer’s efforts to revitalize its brick-and-mortar stores, Macy’s sales have seen a 7% year-over-year decline in the third quarter. The struggle against online competitors and changing consumer preferences has made Macy’s an attractive acquisition target for Arkhouse and Brigade.
Arkhouse, primarily focused on real estate investment, and Brigade Capital, an asset management firm, have expressed their willingness to consider a higher bid after conducting due diligence on Macy’s. This signals their confidence in the potential for a successful turnaround.
Macy’s, with 722 store locations across 43 states, Washington, DC, Puerto Rico, and Guam, has faced challenges for decades. The rise of online giants like Amazon and the dominance of big-box retailers such as Walmart and Target have eroded Macy’s market share. The company’s annual profit and sales forecast was revised in June after a slowdown in customer demand, prompting a candid acknowledgment from Macy’s CEO Jeff Gennette.
“The US consumer, particularly at Macy’s, pulled back more than we anticipated,” Gennette stated on an earnings call. Customers “reallocated” spending to food, essentials, and services, he added.
This acquisition bid follows a similar trend in the retail sector, as evidenced by Kohl’s facing takeover offers in 2022. The challenging economic landscape, marked by volatile interest rates and high inflation, has affected retailers across the board. While online spending proved robust during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, uncertainties remain about the strength of the holiday season, especially after several retailers issued cautious fourth-quarter outlooks.
As Macy’s evaluates the proposal, the retail landscape awaits the potential transformation that Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management could bring to this iconic brand.
Defense Metals Corp. is a mineral exploration and development company focused on the acquisition, exploration and development of mineral deposits containing metals and elements commonly used in the electric power market, defense industry, national security sector and in the production of green energy technologies, such as, rare earths magnets used in wind turbines and in permanent magnet motors for electric vehicles. Defense Metals owns 100% of the Wicheeda Rare Earth Element Property located near Prince George, British Columbia, Canada. Defense Metals Corp. trades in Canada under the symbol “DEFN” on the TSX Venture Exchange, in the United States, under “DFMTF” on the OTCQB and in Germany on the Frankfurt Exchange under “35D”.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Phase II drilling program. Defense Metals completed Phase II open pit diamond core and sonic infrastructure geotechnical drilling. The program consisted of six diamond drill holes totaling 1,182 meters within the Wicheeda rare earth element (REE) deposit pit shell, inclusive of four open pit geochemical drill holes totaling 920 meters, and two near-mine exploration holes totaling 262 meters. Nine sonic overburden drill holes, and 14 test pits designed to help characterize the soil subsurface and bedrock foundations of future waste rock storage, contact water pond, crusher, processing plant, and tailings storage facility locations were also completed. A final Phase 3 drilling program will entail 10 sonic overburden drill holes and three test pits.
Successful outcomes. South and west pit wall drill holes WI23-81 and WI23-82 intersected significant widths of visibly REE mineralized dolomite carbonatite. Hole WI23-82 drilled into the west pit wall of the Wicheeda Deposit tested a new ground radiometric anomaly. Assay results are pending.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures
More Funding? In testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Appropriations, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas expounded on the Biden Administration’s $8.7 billion supplemental funding request for DHS to cover projected shortfalls, enhance enforcement, and hire additional personnel.
More Beds. One of the key items was increased surge capacity of up to 46,500 ICE detention beds. Recall, the current budgeted amount is 34,000 beds, although the most recent ICE report indicates nearly 37,000 beds were being used as of October 3rd and press reports indicate the current number is closer to 40,000. Additional funding for transportation and the Alternatives to Detention (ATD) program also was requested.
Surge Continues. In October 240,988 people were encountered at the Southwest border, up from 231,529 a year ago and down only modestly from the 269,735 encountered in September. For all of fiscal 2023, there were 2,475,669 border encounters. We would note, in his testimony, Secretary Mayorkas stated that since May 12th, or approximately 6 months, 336,000 individuals have been removed or returned, a fraction of the nearly 1.3 million encounters since then, not to mention the historic numbers prior. And, recall, encounters only represent a portion of total border crossings.
What Does It Mean for CXW and GEO. Assuming the funding is passed, it will have a positive impact on CoreCivic (CXW) and The GEO Group (GEO), at least in the short-term. With CXW and GEO receiving roughly one-third each of new detainees any increase in the overall number of detainees should positively impact operating results, especially given that as of the end of the third quarter, both companies had the majority of their respective ICE facilities at or above the guaranteed minimum level. If the increased number of beds is sticky, it is possible ICE will seek additional facility capacity, potentially enabling CXW and/or GEO to restart a currently idled facility. Finally, any increase in the use of the ISAP program will benefit GEO.
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Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis. Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.” FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87
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BOCA RATON, Fla., Nov. 09, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — via InvestorWire — Noble Capital Markets, Inc. (“Noble”) today announces that Seeking Alpha (https://seekingalpha.com/), the world’s leading investing community, will be a prominent sponsor at NobleCon19 (NobleCon19.com), Noble’s 19th Annual Emerging Growth Equity Conference, to be held at Florida Atlantic University, College of Business, Executive Education, Dec. 3-5, 2023, in Boca Raton, Florida. NobleCon19 will feature 200 public company executives, corporate presentations, breakouts, 1×1 meetings with qualified attendees, provocative panels, and a keynote fireside chat featuring the 43rd President of the United States, George W. Bush, moderated by Noble’s Director of Research, Michael Kupinski.
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“We are thrilled to have Seeking Alpha on board as a sponsor for NobleCon19,” said Nico P. Pronk, CEO of Noble Capital Markets, the host of NobleCon19. “Their research and analysis tools and resources for the investment community align perfectly with the objectives of our conference. We believe their involvement will enhance the overall event, providing attendees with valuable perspectives and knowledge.”
During the conference, Seeking Alpha representatives will be available at their booth, which will also be the official NobleCon19 coffee station, to interact with attendees, demonstrate their platform’s capabilities, and discuss the latest trends in investment research. Attendees are encouraged to visit the Seeking Alpha booth to learn more about their innovative solutions and how they can benefit individual investors, financial professionals and institutions alike.
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The recent sharp sell-off in the bond market has sent shockwaves through financial markets, impacting investors and consumers alike. This sell-off is characterized by rising yields on U.S. government bonds, particularly the 10-year Treasury note. As we delve into the implications of this development, it’s crucial to consider the historical context and the ripple effects on stock markets, investors, and consumers.
Rising Yields and Interest Rates:
Yields on government bonds, especially the 10-year Treasury note, play a pivotal role in shaping interest rates across the financial spectrum. Mortgage rates, credit card rates, and other forms of debt are closely tied to these yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, widely viewed as one of the safest investments globally, recently surged above 5%, a level not seen since 2007.
Drivers of the Sell-Off:
Several factors have fueled this bond market sell-off. Stronger-than-expected economic data has boosted the outlook for the U.S. economy. The government’s deteriorating financial condition, coupled with concerns over mounting debt levels, have also contributed to the sell-off. In 2022, the bond market faced its worst year on record, with the Federal Reserve aggressively raising interest rates to combat high inflation.
Inverse Relationship: Bond Prices and Yields:
The inverse relationship between bond prices and yields is a cornerstone of the bond market. When yields rise, bond prices fall. This dynamic has been particularly pronounced in recent weeks, pushing yields higher.
The Fed’s Role and Economic Implications:
The Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank, has played a pivotal role in the bond market. During the pandemic, it acquired trillions of dollars’ worth of fixed-income securities to support the economy. However, since 2021, the Fed has been gradually reducing the size of its portfolio. Over the past 18 months, the Fed has hiked benchmark interest rates by over 500 basis points.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently indicated that the central bank will approach its monetary-tightening measures carefully. The Fed’s priority is to tame inflation, which may require maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period, further influencing the bond market.
Growing Debt and Downgrades:
Wall Street’s concerns are further compounded by the United States’ escalating debt levels. Fitch Ratings recently downgraded the country’s bond rating from AAA to AA+. The U.S. budget deficit has surged in the latest fiscal year, with the outstanding debt reaching a staggering $33.64 trillion. Notably, the debt has increased by $640 billion in just the past five weeks.
Impact on Stock Markets and Investors:
The bond market’s turbulence can have a pronounced impact on stock markets. The rise in bond yields can make fixed-income investments more attractive, potentially diverting capital from stocks. This shift in investor sentiment has been a factor in the recent decline in U.S. stock markets in the latter half of 2023.
Consumer Implications:
Consumers are not immune to the repercussions of a bond market sell-off. Rising yields tend to result in higher borrowing costs, impacting mortgage rates, credit card rates, and other forms of consumer debt. Consumers may also experience the indirect effects of a less accommodative monetary policy, which can influence overall economic conditions.
In summary, the bond market’s recent sell-off, with surging yields and growing debt concerns, has multifaceted implications. It underscores the intricate interplay between bond markets, stock markets, investors, and consumers. As the Federal Reserve continues to navigate the path of monetary tightening, the financial landscape remains fluid, and stakeholders must adapt to these evolving dynamics.
AMN Healthcare (NYSE: AMN), a prominent player in total talent solutions for healthcare organizations across the United States, has announced its plans to acquire MSDR, marking a significant move in the healthcare staffing sector. The definitive agreement, with a purchase price of $300 million, encompasses two healthcare staffing companies, Medical Search International (MSI) and DRW Healthcare Staffing (DRW), both of which specialize in locum tenens and advanced practices.
Meet the Companies:
MSI, established in 2002, is renowned for its services in placing high-quality healthcare professionals specializing in psychiatry, anesthesia, radiology, and surgery, serving healthcare systems throughout the United States. DRW, founded in 2011, boasts expertise in psychiatry, anesthesia, and surgery placements, making it a valued leader in the locum tenens industry. Notably, Chris Wang, the Chief Executive Officer and Managing Partner of DRW, will continue to contribute as the President of MSDR.
Growth Prospects and Financials:
This strategic acquisition positions AMN Healthcare for substantial revenue growth within the locum tenens sector. In 2022, MSDR generated $104 million in revenue, and the annualized revenue for 2023 stands at approximately $155 million. AMN anticipates the deal to be modestly accretive to adjusted earnings per share (EPS) within the first 12 months of integration.
The acquisition is slated to close in the fourth quarter of 2023, contingent on regulatory approvals and closing conditions. It will be treated as an asset purchase, creating a step-up in the tax basis for the intangible assets acquired.
Expanding Solutions and Expertise:
With the integration of MSDR, AMN Healthcare’s extensive portfolio of solutions is set to expand significantly. Clients will gain access to a larger and more diverse candidate pool, including healthcare professionals specializing in some of the most sought-after and in-demand services.
Moreover, the acquisition brings the wealth of expertise and knowledge of the MSDR team in recruitment, placement, and operations, coupled with candidate matching technology tailored for locum tenens. This move underscores AMN Healthcare’s commitment to delivering high-quality, tailored workforce solutions.
Commentary from Leadership:
AMN Healthcare President and Chief Executive Officer Cary Grace expressed enthusiasm about the acquisition, stating, “We are very excited to welcome the MSDR team into the AMN Healthcare family and expand the workforce solutions available to our clients across the country.” The move signifies a strategic growth opportunity that positions AMN Healthcare as a stronger and more comprehensive player in the healthcare staffing industry, ultimately benefitting both healthcare organizations and the dedicated professionals they serve.
Explore more healthcare and biotechnology stocks covered by Noble Senior Analysts Gregory Aurand and Robert LeBoyer
In a recent rally, Bitcoin briefly surpassed the $35,000 mark, marking a significant milestone not seen since May 2022. This resurgence has breathed new life into the world’s foremost cryptocurrency and left many wondering if Bitcoin is poised for a remarkable comeback.
A Rally of Remarkable Proportions:
The year 2023 has unfolded with tremendous vigor for Bitcoin enthusiasts. The cryptocurrency has ascended over 100% since the year’s inception, igniting optimism among investors and speculators alike. This remarkable rally could, in part, be attributed to a phenomenon known as a “short squeeze.” In essence, some investors who had bet against Bitcoin found themselves in a precarious position, compelled to buy Bitcoin to cover their short positions, thus driving its price higher.
Short Liquidations and Regulatory Hopes:
A staggering $167 million in short liquidations, predominantly on offshore exchanges, serves as evidence of the short squeeze’s impact. However, the Bitcoin market’s dynamics extend beyond short-term speculation. The recent decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) not to appeal a ruling in Grayscale’s lawsuit has sparked optimism in the cryptocurrency community. The hope is that this decision could pave the way for the approval of a Bitcoin-related exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the coming months. Momentum has been building as firms vying for a Bitcoin ETF updated their filings, and prominent investors such as Ark’s Cathie Wood and Galaxy’s Mike Novogratz have highlighted a shift in the SEC’s tone. The regulatory body appears to be engaging more positively with the cryptocurrency industry, increasing the odds of a Bitcoin ETF receiving the green light.
The Significance of a Bitcoin ETF:
A Bitcoin ETF would represent a pivotal development for both seasoned and novice investors. It would provide a structured and regulated way for individuals to gain exposure to Bitcoin’s price movements without the need to directly own the cryptocurrency. Such an ETF could bridge the gap between traditional financial markets and the digital asset realm, further legitimizing Bitcoin as a viable investment.
Bitcoin’s Checkered History:
To understand the significance of this potential resurgence, it’s crucial to reflect on Bitcoin’s journey. Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has weathered numerous storms, experiencing extreme volatility and wild price swings. It reached its all-time high of nearly $65,000 in April 2021 before experiencing a sharp decline.
Regulatory Scrutiny and Industry Challenges:
Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency industry have faced increasing regulatory scrutiny in recent years. The high-profile FTX bankruptcy case and Terraform’s legal troubles, where they are charged with defrauding investors, serve as stark reminders of the challenges the industry faces. Furthermore, the SEC has been actively cracking down on cryptocurrency companies. Firms like Coinbase and Ripple are currently embroiled in legal battles with the SEC, accused of violating securities laws. These legal skirmishes, along with others in the crypto space, have underscored the pressing need for regulatory clarity in the United States. As the industry navigates these challenges, the question that looms is whether Bitcoin is indeed primed for a resurgence. The recent rally, the prospects of a Bitcoin ETF, and the evolving regulatory landscape all point to a cryptocurrency with the potential for a triumphant return, promising exciting times ahead for Bitcoin enthusiasts and investors.
The United Auto Workers (UAW) strike against General Motors (GM) has escalated, now including a full-size SUV plant in Texas. The latest developments unfolded just hours after GM reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street’s expectations, underscoring the high-stakes nature of the ongoing labor dispute.
Approximately 5,000 workers at GM’s Arlington Assembly plant, responsible for producing full-size Cadillac, GMC, and Chevrolet SUVs, have joined the strike action, amplifying the economic impact of the labor unrest.
GM’s Earnings Report and Ongoing Strike Impact:
General Motors’ robust third-quarter performance showcased adjusted earnings per share of $2.28, surpassing the estimated $1.88. Revenue also exceeded expectations, with GM reporting $44.13 billion against the anticipated $43.68 billion.
However, the labor strike, which commenced on September 15 and has intensified since then, has cast a shadow over GM’s otherwise impressive financial results. The strikes have proven costly, with GM estimating a loss of around $200 million per week due to disrupted production.
The volatility caused by the ongoing strikes has prompted GM to withdraw its previously announced earnings guidance for the year. Furthermore, the company has adjusted its near-term targets for electric vehicles (EVs), citing slower-than-expected demand for electric vehicles.
UAW’s Stance and Worker Impact:
UAW President Shawn Fain has been steadfast in the union’s demands during the labor dispute, emphasizing the principle of equitable compensation for GM workers. In a statement, Fain noted, “Another record quarter, another record year. As we’ve said for months: record profits equal record contracts. It’s time GM workers, and the whole working class, get their fair share.”
With over 45,000 UAW members at Detroit automakers currently on strike, which constitutes roughly 31% of union members covered by expired contracts, the strike has already left a considerable impact. Additionally, around 7,000 workers, approximately 5% of the workforce, have been laid off due to the ripple effects of the strikes, according to the affected companies.
It’s worth noting that this recent escalation of the strike was initially planned earlier in the month, but GM proposed a last-minute inclusion of workers at the company’s joint-venture battery cell plants in the master agreement, leading to a temporary pause in strike activities. However, recent developments suggest that progress in negotiations may have stalled, reigniting tensions between the UAW and GM.
The ongoing UAW strike against General Motors, coupled with GM’s impressive earnings report and its subsequent decision to withdraw guidance due to the labor unrest, highlights the delicate balance between corporate success and labor demands in the auto industry. As negotiations continue, the stakes remain high for both the automaker and its dedicated workforce.
In a significant move that underscores the ongoing transformation within the energy sector, Chevron (NYSE: CVX) has recently announced its acquisition of Hess (NASDAQ: HES) in a monumental $53 billion all-stock deal. This mega-merger comes on the heels of Exxon Mobil’s $60 billion bid for Pioneer Natural Resources, marking the second colossal consolidation among major U.S. oil players this month.
The strategic significance of this merger revolves around the ambitions of both Chevron and Exxon to unlock the untapped potential of Guyana’s burgeoning oil industry. Guyana, once an inconspicuous player in the oil sector, has rapidly ascended the ranks to become one of Latin America’s foremost oil producers, second only to industry giants Brazil and Mexico, thanks to substantial oil discoveries in recent years.
This high-stakes deal positions Chevron in direct competition with its formidable rival, Exxon, in the race to capitalize on Guyana’s newfound prominence. Chevron’s offer, consisting of 1.025 of its shares for each share of Hess or $171 per share, represents a premium of approximately 4.9% to the stock’s most recent closing price. The total value of the transaction, encompassing debt, amounts to a staggering $60 billion.
Upon the successful completion of this transaction, John Hess, CEO of Hess Corp, is set to join Chevron’s board of directors, cementing the collaborative vision of the two energy giants. Chevron has also expressed its commitment to fortify its share repurchase program, intending to bolster it by an additional $2.5 billion, reaching the upper limit of its annual $20 billion range. This decision underscores Chevron’s confidence in future energy prices and its robust cash generation.
Notably, this merger serves as a testament to Chevron’s unwavering dedication to fossil fuels. In a climate where global energy dynamics are evolving rapidly, Chevron’s move underscores a resolute belief in the enduring strength of oil demand. Large energy producers continue to employ acquisitions as a strategy to replenish their reserves after years of underinvestment, further highlighting the industry’s drive to secure its future in a dynamically shifting landscape.
This merger between Chevron and Hess not only signals the industry’s determination to harness the full potential of Guyana’s oil reserves but also represents a pivotal moment in the evolution of the energy sector, as established players seek new avenues for growth and consolidation in a rapidly changing world. The deal is expected to close around the first half of 2024, setting the stage for a new chapter in the energy industry’s ongoing narrative.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has once again crossed the 5% threshold. This benchmark yield has far-reaching implications for both the financial markets and the general public, serving as a barometer of economic conditions and influencing investment decisions, interest rates, and the cost of borrowing for governments, businesses, and individuals.
The 10-year Treasury yield is a crucial indicator of the economy’s health and the state of the financial markets. It reflects the interest rate that the U.S. government pays on its debt with a 10-year maturity, which is considered a relatively safe investment. As such, it provides a reference point for other interest rates in the financial system.
Impact on Investors:
Fixed-Income Investments: The 10-year Treasury yield directly impacts the pricing and performance of bonds and other fixed-income investments. When the yield rises, the value of existing bonds tends to decrease, which can lead to capital losses for bondholders.
Stock Market: Higher Treasury yields can put pressure on stock prices. As bond yields increase, investors may shift from equities to bonds in search of better returns with lower risk. This shift can lead to stock market volatility and corrections.
Cost of Capital: Rising Treasury yields can increase the cost of capital for businesses. This may result in higher borrowing costs for companies, which can impact their profitability and, subsequently, their stock prices.
Impact on the General Public:
Mortgage Rates: Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield. When yields rise, mortgage rates tend to follow suit. As a result, homebuyers may face higher borrowing costs, potentially limiting their ability to purchase homes or leading to higher monthly payments for existing homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages.
Consumer Loans: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note also influences interest rates for various consumer loans, including auto loans and personal loans. When yields rise, the cost of borrowing for individuals increases, affecting their spending capacity.
Inflation Expectations: An increase in the 10-year Treasury yield can signal rising inflation expectations. In response, consumers may anticipate higher prices for goods and services, which can impact their spending and savings decisions.
Retirement and Savings: For retirees and savers, rising Treasury yields can be a mixed bag. While it can translate into higher returns on savings accounts and CDs, it can also result in increased volatility in investment portfolios, which may be a concern for those relying on their investments for income.
Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook:
A sustained rise in the 10-year Treasury yield is often seen as an indication of a strengthening economy. However, if the yield surges too quickly, it can raise concerns about the pace of economic growth and the potential for the Federal Reserve to implement tighter monetary policy to combat inflation.
In conclusion, the 10-year Treasury yield is not just a number on a financial ticker; it’s a critical metric that touches the lives of investors, borrowers, and everyday consumers. Its movements provide valuable insights into the state of the economy and financial markets, making it a figure closely watched by experts and the public alike.
INVO Bioscience (NASDAQ: INVO) and NAYA Biosciences have unveiled a definitive merger agreement. The primary objective of this union is to establish a robust, publicly traded life science conglomerate with a shared mission: to enhance patient access to life-altering treatments in the fields of oncology, fertility, and regenerative medicine.
The newly formed entity, to be known as “NAYA Biosciences,” will bring together the unique strengths and capabilities of both organizations, representing a significant leap forward in the healthcare landscape. NAYA Biosciences intends to chart a course that includes expanding revenue streams in the fertility sector, forging revenue-generating pharmaceutical partnerships for therapeutic initiatives, and strategically acquiring complementary technologies and companies.
Merger Details and Leadership Transition:
Under the terms of the agreement, INVO will acquire NAYA Biosciences in an all-stock transaction. Shareholders of NAYA Biosciences will receive 7.3333 shares of INVO for each share of NAYA Biosciences at the time of closing. This arrangement equates to approximately 18,150,000 shares of INVO. Dr. Daniel Teper, the current Chairman & CEO of NAYA Biosciences, will assume the position of Chairman & CEO of the combined company.
The merger is contingent on several closing conditions, including shareholder approval, an estimated $5 million or more (at NAYA’s discretion) in interim private financing in INVO at a premium relative to INVO’s market price at the time of financing (“Interim PIPE”), and a private offering by the combined company at a target price of $5.00 per share.
Valuation and Ownership Structure:
The merger values INVO at $12,373,780 and NAYA at $90,750,000. Subject to the successful execution of the Interim PIPE, post-transaction and prior to the private offering, INVO and NAYA shareholders will have ownership stakes of approximately 12% and 88%, respectively, in the combined company. This carefully structured deal is a testament to the alignment of interests and strategic vision.
A New Era for NAYA Biosciences:
Upon completion of the merger, NAYA Biosciences aims to operate as a NASDAQ-listed consortium comprising agile, disruptive, high-growth companies dedicated to expanding patient access to transformative treatments in three core areas:
NAYA Oncology: Focused on pioneering solutions in the field of oncology, NAYA Oncology aims to revolutionize cancer treatments.
NAYA Fertility: Committed to advancing fertility care, NAYA Fertility seeks to make assisted reproductive technology (ART) more accessible and inclusive for people worldwide.
NAYA Regenerative Medicine: This division is at the forefront of regenerative medicine, with a mission to develop breakthrough treatments that can transform lives.
NAYA Biosciences brings together a unique set of capabilities, including expertise in biology, cell and gene therapy, and artificial intelligence (AI). This expertise, combined with INVO’s established network of fertility clinics (INVO Centers) and the innovative INVOcell® medical device for intravaginal culture, sets the stage for accelerated clinical development and the commercialization of groundbreaking treatments.
About NAYA Biosciences:
NAYA Biosciences is poised to become a leader in the life sciences arena, fostering a cluster of high-growth companies dedicated to advancing oncology, fertility, and regenerative medicine. Leveraging its proficiency in biology, cell and gene therapy, and AI, NAYA Biosciences is on a mission to redefine the landscape of healthcare.
About INVO Bioscience:
INVO Bioscience is a healthcare services fertility company committed to broadening access to assisted reproductive technology (ART) worldwide. The company’s strategy centers on the establishment of dedicated “INVO Centers” offering the INVOcell® and intravaginal culture procedure, acquisition of U.S.-based profitable in vitro fertilization (IVF) clinics, and the distribution of its proprietary technology into existing fertility clinics. INVOcell® represents a pioneering approach to fertilization and early embryo development within the woman’s body, offering a promising alternative to traditional IVF and intrauterine insemination (IUI) treatments.
The merger between INVO Bioscience and NAYA Biosciences represents a major milestone in the life sciences industry, poised to drive innovation and bring transformative treatments to patients worldwide.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures
Overview: A new small-cap cycle?Small cap stocks have underperformed the large cap stocks for the past several years. Notably, there is a sizable valuation disparity between the two classes, one of the largest in over 20 years. Some of the small cap stocks we follow trade at a modest 2 times Enterprise Value to EBITDA, compared with large cap valuations as high as 13 to 15 times. Are we on a cusp of a small cap cycle?
Digital Media & Technology:Stocks Outperform – But Don’t Get Too Excited. Each of Noble’s Internet and Digital Media Indices, which are market cap weighted, outperformed the S&P 500 in the third quarter, but the double-digit gains from the previous quarter moderated significantly. Despite these relatively positive results, the prevailing theme within each sector was that the largest cap stocks performed the best, while smaller cap stocks across a variety of sectors struggled.
Television Broadcasting:Advertising Stabilizing?As we look toward the third quarter, local advertising appears to be weakening as the economy appears to be slowing. But, national appears to be improving. In addition, while it was assumed that Political would increase in the fourth quarter due to the run-off of the Republican presidential candidates, we believe that President Biden has recently stepped-up advertising in the third quarter, particularly in Hispanic communities.
Radio Broadcasting:Shoring up balance sheets.As many radio companies face a challenged revenue environment and at the same time invested in faster growth digital revenue, some companies have been caught carrying a substantial amount of debt. In this report, we highlight one company that was able to shore up its balance sheet through asset sales.
Publishing:Stocks outperform. It may be hard to imagine for some investors, but the Publishing stocks outperformed in both the latest quarter and for the trailing 12 months the S&P 500! But, there is still a wide valuation gap between most of Publishers and the shares of The New York Times, with the NYT shares at 15 times cash flow and the rest near 5.
Overview
The case for small caps
Small cap investors have gone through a rough period. For the past several years, investors have anticipated an economic downturn. With these concerns, investors turned toward “safe haven” large cap stocks, which typically have the ability to weather the economic headwinds and have enough trading volume should investors need to exit the position. Since 2018, small cap stocks have underperformed the general stock market, with annualized returns of just 3.7% as measured by the S&P 600 Small Cap Index versus the general market of 10.2% as measured by the S&P 500 Index. Another small cap index, the Russell 2000, increased a more modest 2.9% annually over the comparable period. The S&P 500 is larger cap, with the minimum market cap of $14.6 billion. The S&P 600 is smaller cap, a range of $850 million to $3.7 billion, with the Russell 2000 median market cap $950 million. Some of the even smaller cap stocks, those between $100 million to $850 million, have significantly underperformed the S&P 600. This is the first time that small caps underperformed a bullish period for all stocks since the 1940s. Notably, there is a sizable valuation disparity between the two classes, large and small cap, one of the largest in over 20 years.
Some of the small cap stocks we follow trade at a modest 2 times Enterprise Value to EBITDA, compared with large cap valuations as high as 13 to 15 times. By another measure, small cap stocks may be the only class trading below historic 25 year average to the median Enterprise Value to EBIT. Why the large valuation disparity? We believe that there is higher risk in the small cap stocks, especially given that some companies may not be cash flow positive, have capital needs, or have limited share float. But, investors seem to have thrown the baby out with the bathwater. While those small cap stocks are on the more speculative end of the scale, many small cap stocks are growing revenues and cash flow, have capable balance sheets, and/or are cash flow positive. For attractive emerging growth companies, the trading activity will resolve itself over time. Some market strategists suggest that small cap stocks trade at the most undervalued in the market, as much as a 30% to 40% discount to fair value.
Are we on a cusp of a small cap cycle? Some fund managers think so. Such a cycle could last 10 years or longer. In this report, we highlight a few of our small cap favorites in the Media sector, those include companies that have attractive growth characteristics, some with or without an improving economy, capable balance sheets, and limited capital needs. Our current favorites based on growth opportunity and stock valuation include: Direct Digital (DRCT), Entravision (EVC), E.W. Scripps (SSP), Gray Television (GTN), and Townsquare Media (TSQ).
After increasing by 8% in the second quarter of 2023, the S&P 500 was unable to hold onto those gains in the third quarter. The S&P Index decreased by 3.6% in the third quarter, a decline which we attribute to the market revising its interest rate expectations to one in which rates would remain “higher for longer”. Large cap stocks that weighed on the broad market index included tech stocks such as Apple (AAPL: -12%), Microsoft (MSFT: -7%) and Tesla (TSLA: -4%). Despite this small step backwards, the S&P 500 Index increased by 20% through the first nine months of the year.
Each of Noble’s Internet and Digital Media Indices, which are market cap weighted, outperformed the S&P 500 in the third quarter, but the double-digit gains from the previous quarter (2Q 2023) moderated significantly. Digital Media 3-Month Performance Sectors that outperformed the S&P 500’s 4% decrease include Noble’s Digital Media Index (+6%), Social Media Index (+4%), Gaming Index (+3%), Ad Tech Index (+1%) and MarTech Index (-3%). Despite these relatively positive results, the prevailing theme within each sector was that the largest cap stocks performed the best while smaller cap stocks across a variety of sectors struggled.
Figure #1 Digital Media 3-Month Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Perhaps more importantly, each of Noble’s Internet and Digital Media Indices have outperformed the S&P 500 over the latest twelve months as illustrated in Figure #2 Digital Versus S&P 500 LTM. The S&P 500 Index has increased by 20% over the last year (through 9/30/2023), which trailed the performance of the each of Noble’s Internet and Digital Media Indices, as shown in Figure #3 Digital Media LTM Performance.
Figure #2 Digital Versus S&P 500 LTM
Figure #3 Digital Media LTM Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Alphabet Powers Digital Media Index Higher Despite Broader-Based Sector Weakness
The best performing index during the quarter was the Noble’s Digital Media Index, but the sector’s “strong” performance is deceiving. Shares of Alphabet (a.k.a. Google: GOOGL) increased by 9% during the quarter, and the company size relative to its peers helps explain the vast majority of the sector’s performance. Google’s market cap is 8x larger than its next largest “peer” in Netflix, and it is 160 times that of the average market cap of its Digital Media peers. Google beat expectations across all metrics (revenue, EBITDA, free cash flow) and guided to improved profitability as it streamlines workflows. The company is also increasingly perceived as a beneficiary of AI. While Alphabet shares performed well, they mask the fact that shares of only 2 of the sector’s 12 stocks were up during the third quarter. The other Digital Media stock that performed well in the quarter was FUBO (FUBO), whose shares increased by 29% in 3Q 2023. Of the 10 other digital content providers in the sector, 7 of them posted double-digit stock price declines in the third quarter.
Large Cap Meta Powers the Social Media Index Higher
Shares in Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) rose for the third straight quarter. Shares increased by 5% and were up 150% through the first nine months of the year. Meta shares increased by 8% at the start of the third quarter due to excitement around the launch of Threads, Meta’s answer to Twitter. Over 100 million people signed up for Threads within the first five days of its rollout and positions the company well for continued revenue growth once it begins to monetize this new opportunity.
As with the Digital Media Index, the Social Media Index masked underlying weakness across several smaller cap stocks. Of the 6 stocks in the Social Media Index, only Meta shares increased during the quarter. Several social media companies performed poorly during the quarter including Spark Networks (LOVL.Y: -59%), which filed to delist its shares, Nextdoor Holdings (KIND: -44%), which has struggled to reach profitability, and Snap (SNAP: -25%), which guided to revenue declines in 3Q 2023.
“No Love” For Small Cap Stocks
As was the case in the Digital Media and Social Media sectors, the same trends held true in the other sectors: in general, large cap stocks outperformed small cap stocks. For example, Noble’s Video Gaming Index increased by 3% in the third quarter, driven by Activision Blizzard (ATVI: +11%), and to a lesser extent SciPlay Corp (SCP: +16%). However, 7 other stocks in the video gaming sector posted stock price declines in the third quarter. Larger cap names such as EA Sports (EA: -7%) and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO: -5%) posted mid-single digit stock price declines while every small cap video gaming stock posted double digit declines.
Noble’s Ad Tech Index increased by 1% during the quarter driven by shares of AppLovin (APP: +55%), and Taboola (TBLA: +22%). However, just 7 of the sector’s 20 stocks were up for the quarter, and 10 stocks in the sector posted double digit declines. One of our favorites is an attractive growth, small cap company, Direct Digital. The DRCT shares declined 20% in the quarter, in spite of posting favorable Q2 revenue that beat expectations and raising full year revenue estimates. Direct Digital leads our list of favorites in the digital Ad Tech companies. As Figure #4 Ad Tech Comparables indicate, Direct Digital is among the cheapest in the industry trading at 4.7 Enterprise Value to our 2024 adj. EBITDA estimate, well below larger cap peers trading at multiples of 12, 13, or even much higher. Finally, Noble’s MarTech Index decreased by 3% (the only index that declined during the quarter), with the sector’s largest companies, Adobe (ADBE: +4%) and Shopify (SHOP: -16%) posting mixed results. Outside of these mega-cap stocks, the theme of underlying weakness prevailed: only 5 of the 20 stocks in the sector posted stock price increases, while one was flat and the other 14 were down. Eleven of the 20 stocks in the MarTech sector posted double digit stock price declines. One of our favorites in the sector, Harte Hanks performed well in the quarter up 18.8%. This was a welcomed bounce from the steep decline in the shares over the past 12 months, down 44%. The company stumbled on quarterly expectations. We believe that the sell-off was over done, providing a compelling opportunity for investors. As Figure #5 MarTech Comparables illustrates, the HHS shares trade at 3.8 times Enterprise Value to our 2024 adj. EBITDA estimate, a fraction of the multiples of many of its larger cap peers. We view the HHS shares as among our favorites in the sector.
Figure #4 Ad Tech Comparables
Source: Company filings & Eikon
Figure #5 MarTech Comparables
Source: Noble estimates & Company filings
Traditional Media
Virtually all traditional media stocks underperformed the general market in the past quarter and trailing 12 months, as illustrated in Figure #6 Traditional Media LTM Performance, save the Publishing group. In the latest quarter, Publishing stocks outperformed the general market, up 3.0% versus down 3.6% for the general market as measured by the S&P 500 Index. The average Publishing stock is up 6.9% over the past 12 months, with some of the larger cap publishing stocks up significantly more, over 20%. More details on the Publishing performance is in the Publishing section of this report. In the last quarter, the Radio stocks were the worse performing group, down on average 10.2%, As illustrated in Figure #7 Traditional Media 3-Month Performance. In addition, the Radio stocks were the worst performing group in the third quarter as well, down and average of 12.7% for the quarter.
Figure #6 Traditional Media LTM Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Figure #7 Traditional Media 3-Month Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Television Broadcasting
Have the TV stocks discounted too much?
We believe that the economic headwinds of rising interest rates and inflation have begun to hit local advertising. Local advertising had been relatively stable, favorably influenced by a resurgence of Auto advertising. Notably, local advertising fared much better than national advertising, which was down in the absence of Political advertising. As we look toward the fourth quarter, local advertising appears to be weakening. But, notably, national advertising appears to be doing much better, driven by an early influx of Political advertising. While it was assumed that Political would increase in the fourth quarter due to the run-off of the Republican presidential candidates, especially in early primary States, we believe that President Biden has recently stepped-up advertising, particularly to the Hispanic community. We have noticed Biden advertising even in Florida! So, what does this mean for media fundamentals?
It is difficult to predict where Political dollars will be spent and not all Political dollars will be spent evenly, geographically or by stations in a particular market. Furthermore, Political dollars may be pulled back in a market should a particular candidate pull ahead in the polls. Political dollars were anticipated to be spent in early primary States, specifically for the Republican candidates. But, the Biden money is a surprise. Biden appears to be spending early and in areas to solidify a key voting block, Hispanics. Of course, the Biden campaign may broaden its spending to other voting blocks as well. In our view, 2024 will be a banner year for Political advertising given the large amount of Political fundraising by the candidates and by Political Action Committees. The prospect of weak local advertising, however, may cast a pall over the current expected strong revenue growth in 2024. Many analysts, including myself, expected that economic prospects would improve in 2024, which would have provided a favorable tailwind for a significant improvement in total TV advertising in 2024. Certainly, it is likely that the Fed may lower interest rates in 2024, potentially providing a boost to local advertising prospects, but that improvement may come late in the year. But, overall, in spite of the weakening Local advertising environment, given the improving National advertising trends, overall TV advertising appears to have stabilized.
For now, we are cautiously optimistic about 2024, with the caveat that revenue growth may be somewhat tempered given the current weak local advertising trends. Nonetheless, we believe that we are nearing the trough for this economic cycle. Some companies, like E.W. Scripps, are in a favorable cycle for Retransmission renewals. Retransmission revenues now account for a hefty 50% of Scripps’ total broadcast revenue. In Scripps’ case, 75% of its subscribers are under renewal, which it recently announced was completed. As such, the company reaffirmed guidance that Retransmission revenue will increase 15% in 2024 and lead to a substantial increase in net Retransmission revenue. We remain constructive on TV stocks, as high margin Political advertising should boost balance sheets and improve stock valuations.
In the latest quarter, TV stocks underperformed the general market. As Figure #7 Traditional Media 3-Month Performanceillustrates, the Noble TV Index decreased 13.2%, underperforming the 3.6% decline in the general market as measured by the S&P 500. The poor performance of the latest quarter adversely affected the trailing 12 month performance, bringing the Noble TV Index to a 17.6% decline for the trailing 12 months. Individual stocks performed more poorly, with only the shares of Fox Corporation registering a modest gain for the trailing 12 months of 2.7%. The Noble TV Index is market cap weighted, and, as such, Fox with a $15 billion market cap, carried the index. Outside of the relatively strong performance of this large cap stock, all of the TV stocks were down and down big, between 18% to 59% over the past 12 months.
We believe that investors have shied away from cyclicals, smaller cap stocks, and from companies with higher debt levels. This accounts for the poor performance of Gray Television and E.W. Scripps, both of which have elevated debt leverage given recent acquisitions. Both were among the poorest performers for the latest quarter and for the trailing 12 months. The GTN shares were down 12% in the third quarter and 38% for the last 12 months; the SSP shares down 40% and 58%, respectively.
We believe that the sell-off has been overdone, especially as the industry is expected to cycle toward an improved fundamental environment in 2024. As Figure #8 TV Industry Comparables indicate, the Broadcast TV stocks trade at a modest 5.3 times Enterprise Value to our 2024 adj. EBITDA estimates, well below historic 20 year average trading multiples of 8 to 12 times. We believe that the depressed valuations largely discount the prospect of an economic downturn and do not reflect the revenue and cash flow upside as we cycle into a Political year. Given the steep valuation discount to historic levels, we believe that the stocks are 15% to 20% below levels where the stocks normally would be given a favorable Political cycle. Our favorites in the TV space include: Entravision (EVC), one of the beneficiaries of the influx of Political advertising to Hispanics; E.W. Scripps (SSP), a play on Political, with the favorable fundamental tailwind of strong Retransmission revenue growth; and, Gray Television (GTN), one of the leading Political advertising plays.
Figure #8 TV Industry Comparables
Source: Noble estimates & Eikon
Radio Broadcasting
Shoring up balance sheets.
The Radio industry has struggled in the first half as National advertising weakened throughout the year. On average National advertising was down roughly20% or more for many Radio broadcasters. Local held up relatively well, although down in the range of 3% to 5%. Fortunately, for many broadcasters, a push into Digital, which grew in the first half, helped to stabilize total company revenues. As we look to the fourth quarter, we believe that Local advertising is weakening, expected to be down in the range of 5% to 7%, or more in some of the larger markets. But, for some, National advertising is improving, driven by Political advertising. But, Political is not evenly spread. As such, we anticipate that there will be a cautious outlook for many in the industry for the second half of the year.
For some in the industry, the challenged revenue environment has put a strain on managing cash flows to maintain hefty debt loads. We believe that debt leverage is among the top concern for investors. Many of the poorest performing stocks in the quarter and for the trailing 12 months carry some of the highest debt leverage in the industry. The Noble Radio Index decreased a significant 13.7% in the latest quarter compared with a 3.7% decline for the general market. But, a look at the individual stock performance tells a more disappointing story. The shares of Salem Media declined 38% in the latest quarter, bringing 12 month performance to a 44% decline. The shares of iHeart Media decline 49% for the year.
Notably, Salem Media assuaged much of its liquidity concerns with recent asset sales. Such sales will bring in roughly $30 million, allowing it to fully pay off its $22 million revolver and have some flexibility with remaining cash on its balance sheet. We do not believe that investors have fully credited the significance of the recent asset sales.
One bright spot in the group has been the shares of Townsquare Media. While the TSQ shares gave back a significant 27% in the third quarter, the shares are still up 20% over the past 12 months, among one of the best performance in the industry. We believe that the company’s initiation of a substantial dividend resonated with investors.
While the industry faces fundamental headwinds given the current economic challenges, we believe that most companies have made a shift toward faster growth, digital business models. In addition, we believe that Radio will see a lift from Political advertising in 2024, although not to the extent that the TV industry will see. Nonetheless, we look for an improving advertising scenario in 2024. As such, we are constructive on the industry. One of our current favorites leads the industry in its Digital transition, Townsquare Media. As Figure #9 Radio Industry Comparables indicates, the TSQ shares are among the cheapest in the industry, trading at 5.1 times EV to our 2024 adj. EBITDA estimate, well below the average of 7.1 times for the industry. In addition, we like Saga Communications, one of the cheapest stocks in the industry, trading near 4 times EV to 2024 adj. EBITDA.
Figure #9 Radio Industry Comparables
Source: Noble estimates & Eikon
Publishing
Further cost cutting will cut deep.
Publishers are not likely to be spared from the weakening local advertising business. But, publishers have a play book on areas to cut expenses to manage cash flows. Certainly, we believe that its Digital businesses should help offset some of the anticipated revenue declines on its print legacy business. We believe that publishers are eliminating print days. Such a move likely will indicate further pressure on print revenues, but would not proportionately decrease cash flow. Some print days have very little advertising and/or advertisers may shift some spending to other print days. Lee Enterprises indicated in its last call that it will go down to 3 print days in 44 of its smaller markets. We believe that the move has been a success. While revenues may have decreased slightly more than expected given the current weak advertising environment, we believe that cost savings have been more than anticipated.
While many publishers would like to have a long runway for its cash flowing print business, such possible moves would necessarily increase the digital transition. Notably, with just some stabilization of revenues on the print side, many publishers have the potential to show total company revenue growth given benefit from digital revenue. With the prospect of strategies that may cut print days and the current weak local advertising environment, we believe that total revenue growth may be pushed out to 2025.
Many of the Publishing stocks were written off long ago. But, surprisingly, the Publishing stocks have been among the best stock performers in the latest quarter and for the trailing 12 months. The Noble Publishing Index increased a solid 36% in the trailing 12 months, outperforming the general market (as measured by the S&P 500) of 19% in the comparable time frame. In the third quarter, Publishing stocks increased 3.5%, outperforming the S&P 500, which declined 3.7%. All of the publishers increased, with the exception of Lee Enterprises. The Lee shares increased substantially a year earlier on takeover rumors. Since then the shares have come back down to earth, while the rest of the industry moved higher. The stronger performers in the industry, however, were the larger cap companies, such as News Corp and The New York Times. In the latest quarter, the shares of The New York Times increased roughly 5% and the shares are up 27% for the trailing 12 months. The shares of Gannett increased a solid 9% in the latest quarter, as well.
As Figure #10 Publishing Industry Comparables illustrate, there is a disparity among some of the larger, more diversified companies, like The New York Times and News Corporation. The NYT shares trade at a hefty 15.7 times EV to 2024 adj. EBITDA estimates, well above much of the pack currently trading in the 5 multiple range. We believe that this valuation gap should narrow, especially as many of the companies, like Lee and Gannett, have a burgeoning Digital business. While the industry faces secular challenges of its Print business and there are economic headwinds in the very near term, we believe that companies like Lee Enterprises have the ability to manage cash flows and grow its Digital businesses. Given the compelling stock valuation disparity, the shares of Lee Enterprises lead our list of favorites in the sector.
Figure #10 Publishing Industry Comparables
Source: Noble estimates & Eikon
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Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis. Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.” FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87
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