Ayala Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a clinical-stage oncology company focused on developing and commercializing small molecule therapeutics for patients suffering from rare and aggressive cancers, primarily in genetically defined patient populations. Ayala’s approach is focused on predicating, identifying and addressing tumorigenic drivers of cancer through a combination of its bioinformatics platform and next-generation sequencing to deliver targeted therapies to underserved patient populations. The company has two product candidates under development, AL101 and AL102, targeting the aberrant activation of the Notch pathway with gamma secretase inhibitors to treat a variety of tumors including Adenoid Cystic Carcinoma, Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC), T-cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (T-ALL), Desmoid Tumors and Multiple Myeloma (MM) (in collaboration with Novartis). AL101, has received Fast Track Designation and Orphan Drug Designation from the U.S. FDA and is currently in a Phase 2 clinical trial for patients with ACC (ACCURACY) bearing Notch activating mutations. AL102 is currently in a Pivotal Phase 2/3 clinical trials for patients with desmoid tumors (RINGSIDE) and is being evaluated in a Phase 1 clinical trial in combination with Novartis’ BMCA targeting agent, WVT078, in Patients with relapsed/refractory Multiple Myeloma. For more information, visit www.ayalapharma.com.
Robert LeBoyer, Vice President, Research Analyst, Life Sciences , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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KOL Event Reviewed AL102 and Desmoid Tumors. Ayala held a KOL webcast to discus AL102, its gamma secretase inhibitor, the current treatments for desmoid tumors, and AL102 clinical development. After reviewing the RINGSIDE Phase 2/3 Part A dose-finding data, we continue to believe AL102 has potential to succeed in the placebo-controlled Part B portion. We continue to rate the stock Market Perform due to the time required for the study and capital requirements.
Clinical Review. The presentations began with a clinical review of desmoid tumors, the mechanism of action for AL102, and the AL102 clinical studies. The RINGSIDE Phase 2/3 trial was designed in two parts, with Part A testing three regimens with different doses and administration schedules. Safety and tumor volume were evaluated at 16 weeks, and data used to select one dose for Part B. The results of Part A were announced in September 2022, with patients moving to an open label extension phase.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Both Stockholders and Those in Prison May Quickly Benefit
The government process moves painfully slow. Some things that are presumed to be just, right, and even best still take years to become the law of the land. As investors, we can be perfectly correct as to the eventual outcome, but the future may not come fast enough. It is taking many years for cannabis or marijuana laws to settle where most presume the eventual outcome will be. That’s a long time to be holding a stock, hopeful but with little real legislative news to propel it higher. The day may finally be approaching for U.S. pot stocks. President Biden announced on Thursday that he is taking quick steps to review federal marijuana laws and recognize related prison sentences.
The U.S. president announced on October 6 that he is initiating an administrative review of federal marijuana scheduling, and he also said that he would be granting mass pardons for people who have committed federal cannabis possession offenses. He asked that state governors do the same for state-level convictions.
The pronouncements are both on the Whitehouse.gov website under Briefing Room and on Twitter @POTUS.
Biden has laid very low on legalization since taking office. Although he campaigned on marijuana decriminalization, rescheduling, and expungements for low-level cannabis convictions, he has not held these as a priority. Mid-term elections are a month away, and the president may be knocking things off his “To-Do” list after two years in office.
The White House estimates that about 6,500 people with federal cannabis convictions could be eligible for relief under the new order, and thousands of others whose local offenses have them incarcerated could also benefit.
The scheduling review—which would be conducted by the Justice Department and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)—could fundamentally reshape U.S. marijuana policy at the federal level. Advocates had been pressuring the president to use his executive authority to initiate a path forward.
It’s not clear how long the review might take, but Biden stressed that he wants the agencies to process it “expeditiously.” It’s reasonable to expect that the review could result in a recommendation to move marijuana from the strictest classification of Schedule I under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA) to a lower schedule or no schedule at all.
A White House official has reminded us that while the POTUS is asking for an expeditious review process, it’s still going to “take some time because it must be based on a careful consideration of all of the available evidence, including scientific and medical information that’s available.”
“This is meant to proceed swiftly. But, you know, this has to be a serious and considerate review of the available evidence,” they said. “So he’s not setting an artificial timeline, but he is saying this needs to be expeditious.”
Source: Whitehouse.gov (October 6, 2022)
This action is a clear about-face for the long-time politician. During his tenure in the Senate, Joe Biden served as chairman of the Judiciary Committee that helped shape drug policy during a period of intense scaremongering and increased criminalization. At the time, he was among the most prominent drug warriors serving in Congress.
Take Away
President Joe Biden has dropped what essentially amounts to a drug policy October surprise just before the midterm elections. The review comes at a time when a number of legislative efforts in both branches of Congress have failed to move forward.
While the pronouncement and order do not finalize federal laws related to banking or interstate commerce tied to cannabis products, it does signal an effort to move far more quickly. A number of publicly traded U.S. cannabis-related companies jumped after the news, including Tilray (TLRY), Schwazze (SHWZ), and Curaleaf (CURLF).
Schwazze (OTCQX:SHWZ, NEO:SHWZ) is building a premier vertically integrated regional cannabis company with assets in Colorado and New Mexico and will continue to take its operating system to other states where it can develop a differentiated regional leadership position. Schwazze is the parent company of a portfolio of leading cannabis businesses and brands spanning seed to sale. The Company is committed to unlocking the full potential of the cannabis plant to improve the human condition. Schwazze is anchored by a high-performance culture that combines customer-centric thinking and data science to test, measure, and drive decisions and outcomes. The Company’s leadership team has deep expertise in retailing, wholesaling, and building consumer brands at Fortune 500 companies as well as in the cannabis sector. Schwazze is passionate about making a difference in our communities, promoting diversity and inclusion, and doing our part to incorporate climate-conscious best practices.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
More New Mexico Coverage. Management for Schwazze announced the opening of two stores on Sept. 28 and Oct. 4 of 2022 in New Mexico, specifically in Ruidoso and Clovis respectively. The openings are part of management’s goal of expansion in the New Mexico state.
Ruidoso Dispensary. The Ruidoso store is located on 360 Sudderth Drive and officially opened its doors on September 24th. The overall population for Ruidoso is at 7,879 according to a 2020 census, and has a median household income of $43,847, according to Data USA. The town is home to a nearby ski resort called Ski Apache and has an annual number of tourists of 1.9 million, according to the town’s website. We expect the dispensary to tap into the tourist revenue stream Ruidoso currently receives.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Comtech Telecommunications Corp. engages in the design, development, production, and marketing of products, systems, and services for advanced communications solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Telecommunications Transmission, Mobile Data Communications, and RF Microwave Amplifiers. The Telecommunications Transmission segment provides satellite earth station equipment and systems, over-the-horizon microwave systems, and forward error correction technology, which are used in various commercial and government applications, including backhaul of wireless and cellular traffic, broadcasting (including HDTV), IP-based communications traffic, long distance telephony, and secure defense applications. The Mobile Data Communications segment provides mobile satellite transceivers, and computers and satellite earth station network gateways and associated installation, training, and maintenance services; supplies and operates satellite packet data networks, including arranging and providing satellite capacity; and offers microsatellites and related components. The RF Microwave Amplifiers segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets satellite earth station traveling wave tube amplifiers (TWTA) and broadband amplifiers. Its amplifiers are used in broadcast and broadband satellite communication; defense applications, such as telecommunications systems and electronic warfare systems; and commercial applications comprising oncology treatment systems, as well as to amplify signals carrying voice, video, or data for air-to-satellite-to-ground communications. The company serves satellite systems integrators, wireless and other communication service providers, broadcasters, defense contractors, military, governments, and oil companies. Comtech markets its products through independent representatives and value-added resellers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Turn the Page. With the appointment of Ken Peterman as CEO and President, Comtech is entering a new chapter, in our view. With a track record of building and creating sustainable, profitable growth, we believe Mr. Peterman will be able to capitalize on the high-growth opportunity set in front of Comtech.
Convergence. A key theme from Mr. Peterman is the belief of a coming “convergence” between the satellite and space communications and terrestrial and wireless communications, or Comtech’s two core markets. With an unsurpassed skill set across both of these areas, we believe Comtech is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this coming convergence.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Gregory Aurand, Senior Research Analyst, Healthcare Services & Medical Devices, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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FQ2 2023 reported for period ending July 31, 2022. As a clinical stage company, ChitogenX reported no revenues in the quarter. Expenses, both G&A and R&D, were lower than our quarter expectations, offset by higher share-based compensation expense. R&D expenses were reduced by a $500,000 (all figures in C$) grant received in May 2022 to advance the meniscus repair indication. The result was a net loss of $1.363 million vs. expected $1.59 million. Loss per share was $0.03 vs. expected loss of $0.03.
ChitogenX is pushing well beyond orthopedics. The rebranding recently instituted was more than a simple name change. The Company is leveraging its chitosan biopolymer technology expertise to attack a much larger global regenerative medicine market, including areas like oncology, neurology, and cardiology. Regenerative medicines have an inherent inability to stick to repair sites and ChitogenX seeks to resolve the problem with their ChitogenX Biopolymer. We expect the Company to establish partnerships, license the technology, or seek grants in these additional markets.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
PDS Biotech is a clinical-stage immunotherapy company developing a growing pipeline of molecularly targeted cancer and infectious disease immunotherapies based on the Company’s proprietary Versamune® and Infectimune™ T-cell activating technology platforms. Our Versamune®-based products have demonstrated the potential to overcome the limitations of current immunotherapy by inducing in vivo, large quantities of high-quality, highly potent polyfunctional tumor specific CD4+ helper and CD8+ killer T-cells. PDS Biotech has developed multiple therapies, based on combinations of Versamune® and disease-specific antigens, designed to train the immune system to better recognize diseased cells and effectively attack and destroy them. The Company’s pipeline products address various cancers including HPV16-associated cancers (anal, cervical, head and neck, penile, vaginal, vulvar) and breast, colon, lung, prostate and ovarian cancers.
Robert LeBoyer, Vice President, Research Analyst, Life Sciences , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
PDS Biotech Announces FDA Meeting Results. PDS Biotech announced the outcome of an End-of-Phase 2 meeting with the FDA to determine the clinical development pathway for PDS0101. In the meeting, data from the interim analysis of the VERSATILE-002 trial testing PDS0101 in HPV-positive head-and-neck cancer was evaluated and regulatory guidance provided. Although the trial is still ongoing, the efficacy and safety data will allow moving into a Phase 3 pivotal study ahead of schedule during 2023.
VERSATILE-002 Showed Strong Response Rates. The VERSATILE-002 Phase 2 trial was designed to test PDS0101 in HPV-positive cancer of the head and neck in combination with the checkpoint inhibitor pembrolizumab (Keytruda, from Merck). As discussed in our Research Note reviewing the data at the ASCO conference last May 31, the tumor response rate (shrinkage of 30% or more) was 41.2% (7 out of 17 patients). This compares with published data showing 19% response rate for checkpoint inhibitors alone. Progression-free survival (PFS) at nine months was 55.2% and overall survival (OS) was 87.2%.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures
Energy stocks, as measured by the XLE Energy Index, were essentially flat during the third quarter rising 0.1%. The performance was impressive given overall market weakness. The S&P Composite Index declined 5.0% during the quarter. What makes the performance even more impressive is the fact that spot oil prices declined 25% during the quarter. We believe energy stocks remain an attractive investment and are an important part of a diversified investment portfolio.
WTI prices peaked at $120 per barrel in the first week of June. Since then, prices have declined in response to signs of a global economic slowdown. Near month oil future contracts are now below $80 per barrel. We believe recent weakness largely reflects demand concerns and foreign currency changes but is not a condition of oversupply. The domestic rig count remains at less than half peak levels. What’s more, rig count has leveled off in recent months in response to the decline in oil prices.
Production has risen to 90% of peak, but it has been done by harvesting the low-hanging fruit. When oil prices began falling early in 2020, there was an increase in Drilled Uncompleted (DUC) wells. When prices rose, drillers focused on completing DUCs. With the number of DUCs having fallen in half, future supply increases will be more difficult. If demand does not decrease in reaction to a slowing economy, domestic production may be hard pressed to meet demand. If worries about a recession are overblown and demand increases, there’s a good chance oil prices will be back at a price of $120 or even higher.
Energy industry fundamentals remain strong. The recent drop in oil prices does not concern us as long-term prices are still above the levels assumed in our financial and valuation models. Energy company cash flow generation is high, and companies are facing the envious position of trying to decide what to do with the cash. Debt levels have been pared down and managements are reluctant to initiate/raise dividends in case the industry goes into a down cycle forcing them to reverse course. Share repurchase remains a viable option especially if energy stocks continue to be weak alongside the overall market.
Energy Stocks
Energy stocks, as measured by the XLE Energy Index, were essentially flat during the third quarter rising 0.1%. The performance was impressive given overall market weakness. The S&P Composite Index declined 5.0% during the quarter. What makes the performance even more impressive is the fact that spot oil prices declined 25% during the quarter. We believe energy stocks remain an attractive investment and are an important part of a diversified investment portfolio.
Oil Prices
Oil prices rose steadily over a two-year period beginning the spring of 2020. WTI prices peaked at $120 per barrel in the first week of June. Since then, prices have declined in response to signs of a global economic slowdown as governments raise interest rates to fight inflation. Near month oil future contracts are now below $80 per barrel.
Figure #1
We believe recent weakness largely reflects demand concerns and foreign currency changes but is not a condition of oversupply. Historically, oil prices are lower when the dollar is stronger. This is because most oil suppliers, including international suppliers, demand payments in dollars.
The domestic rig count remains at less than half peak levels. According to Baker Hughes, there were 764 active rigs as of September 23, 2022, as compared to 1600 in 2015. What’s more, rig count has leveled off in recent months in response to the decline in oil prices.
Figure #2
Rig count is one way to forecast future supply. While only half the peak number of rigs are active, that does not mean that production is half of peak levels. In fact, as the chart below shows, domestic daily production surpassed 2015 peak rig production levels in 2018. Production declined sharply when oil prices fell in 2020 but have recovered to a point where production has reached 90% of peak production. The increased production demonstrates an improved productivity per well as drillers better tailor drilling techniques to individual formations.
Figure #3
But before we chalk up increased production to improved technology, let’s look at one more chart. The chart below shows the number of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells against active rigs. The chart shows that the number of uncompleted wells has declined sharply the last two years as the active rig count has grown. When oil prices began falling early in 2020, drillers continued drilling but often did not complete the wells. This led to a large increase in the number of DUC wells. When prices started rising in the summer of 2020, drilling returned. However, drilling was largely focused on completing or reworking wells.
Figure #4
The implication of a declining DUC count is that the industry is running out of low hanging fruit. Future drilling will need to focus on wells that are likely to have a lower production rate per rig than what we have witnessed recently. Declining production could exasperate already low inventory levels (see chart below). Thus, if demand does not decrease in reaction to a slowing economy, domestic production may be hard pressed to meet demand. If worries about a recession are overblown and demand increases, there’s a good chance oil prices will be back at a price of $120 or even higher.
Figure #5
Natural Gas Prices
Natural gas prices tend to track oil prices but with a few distinctions. Natural gas demand and supply is less global than oil. Imports (and now exports) of liquefied natural gas represent a small portion of domestic supply and demand. Secondly, natural gas is used primarily for space heating. That means demand is more seasonal. It also means demand can be affected by weather conditions. On the other hand, natural gas demand is less affected by general economic conditions than oil. As the chart below shows, natural gas prices do not seem to be affected by recession concerns as compared to oil prices.—-
Figure #6
Source: Natural Gas Intelligence
Summer is usually a quiet time for natural gas prices. Wells are producing more gas than is demanded, and gas is put in inventory. As is the case with oil, inventory levels are running below historical averages as we approach the point of withdrawing from inventory. This bodes well for natural gas prices remaining at current historical high levels and perhaps even rising higher.———- page break ———-
Figure #7
Outlook
Energy industry fundamentals remain strong. The recent drop in oil prices does not concern us as long-term prices are still above the levels assumed in our financial and valuation models. Energy company cash flow generation is high, and companies are facing the envious position of trying to decide what to do with the cash. Debt levels have been pared down and managements are reluctant to initiate/raise dividends in case the industry goes into a down cycle forcing them to reverse course. Share repurchase remains a viable option especially if energy stocks continue to be weak alongside the overall market.
We also believe the case for smaller cap energy stocks is strong. Major oil companies are facing increasing pressure to focus on renewable energy. While the majors are increasing drilling, they are doing so in a controlled manner as they also invest in green energy. Smaller cap energy companies are less tethered and often able to acquire and exploit properties being ignored by the majors. If our belief that a world-wide recession is already factored into energy prices is correct, small cap energy companies will be in the best position to take advantage of any price increase.
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ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE
Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis. Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.” FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87
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RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION
Independence Of View All views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers.
Receipt of Compensation No part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or views expressed in the public appearance and/or research report.
Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest Neither I nor anybody in my household has a financial interest in the securities of the subject company or any other company mentioned in this report.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Lowering 4Q Projections. We are taking a more conservative view of the fourth quarter given the impact of Ian on Florida. Orion has a number of projects in the area and we expect to see a push back given the need for more humanitarian efforts. We are now forecasting revenue of $165 million for the quarter, down from a prior $168 million estimate, adjusted EBITDA of $8.55 million, down from $10.55 million, and breakeven EPS, down from a prior $0.03 EPS estimate. For the full year, we are now at revenue of $709.5 million and adjusted EBITDA of $28.1 million.
But More Future Work? The devastation wrought by Ian is undeniable, not just in Florida but also in the Carolinas. This unfortunate event, however, could create substantial future work for Orion. While it is way too early yet to determine, typically such storms end up being a net positive in terms of new work.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
FFO, NFFO, and AFFO Projections. We modestly adjusted our projections for Funds From Operations, Normalized Funds From Operations, and Adjusted Funds From Operations. Our prior estimates reflected a larger estimate for depreciation and amortization and other than we are now using. We are now projecting third quarter FFO at $0.31 per share, versus a prior $0.36, NFFO of $0.31 versus $0.37, and AFFO of $0.31 versus a prior $0.32.
No Change in Business Outlook. We are not currently expecting any major change in the business environment and our projections for revenue and EPS remain unchanged. ICE ADP has risen from below 20,000 in the spring to nearly 26,000 in September, while Southwest Border encounters exceeded 200,000/mth since March and likely will be up over 32% from the full fiscal year 2021.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
The Fundamental Reasons the Strength in Precious Metals May Continue
What’s happening with precious metals? Silver has been outshining gold the past few days as the rally in both precious metals (PM) has grabbed the attention of investors and perhaps caught those that were short silver off guard. Why are the metals rising, can the strength last, and what is the longer-term outlook for PM?
Silver reached a six-week high in the first week of October, and gold is at its highest level in three weeks. As financial markets are becoming more uncertain, the two metals are showing they never really lost their safe-haven status. The concerns have just not been high enough for many to rotate out of the investments they were in. The move to what has always been viewed as the highest level of safe, gold and silver. This rotation follows months of movement to $ U.S. dollar-denominated securities. The heightened level of safety was inspired by the media being focused on a potential financial crisis in Europe and discussions of Russia unleashing a nuclear weapon in Putin’s attempt to annex Ukraine.
Silver, Gold and Copper performance since September 1. Source: Koyfin
As if the words “nuclear bomb” aren’t enough to send some investors taking a larger allocation in safe-haven assets, there are rumors circulating that the global investment bank Credit Suisse may be in serious financial trouble. For many market participants, the rumblings about an investment bank having problems are reminiscent of 2007, the rumors of Bear Stearns, and the market troubles that followed. Revisiting the activity of the precious metals market that followed in 2008, silver outperformed copper, which outperformed gold.
As silver and gold rise, many speculators that were comfortable with short positions are finding themselves forced with the decision to decide to purchase to close out their short positions. Active hedge funds and other money managers will often play precious metals against the U.S. dollar. With the dollar at a 20-year high, the sentiment around metals was negative. If this is the beginning of a longer rotation into PM, the rotation could build into a strong short squeeze. Short covering serves to strengthen prices.
Other Fundamentals
Prior to Monday’s 7% increase in the price of silver and the 3% increase in gold, both with strong follow-up on Tuesday, some analysts were becoming more positive on the metals and miners category. In his quarterly Metals & Mining Review and Outlook, released on Channelchek pre-market Monday, Mark Reichmann, Sr. Research Analyst, wrote, “While higher rates and a strong U.S. dollar pose significant headwinds for gold, an inflection point may be reached as investors seek to preserve value amid deteriorating economic conditions, increasing geopolitical uncertainty, and market volatility.”
Reichmann seems to be long-term positive on metals, thinking gold and silver may turn first; he wrote, “Precious metals prices may strengthen in advance of industrial metals. Therefore, investors may desire to lean into precious metals mining names to benefit from a positive shift in investor sentiment.” He continued, “While it may take longer for industrial metals to recover, an eventual return to economic growth could result in strong prices due to potential supply and demand imbalances.”
For a complete list and the most current research reports of producers of precious and industrial metals companies covered by Mark Reichmann, visit his analyst webpage here.
Take Away
The move earlier this year toward U.S. dollar denominated assets, to capture higher yields and low sovereign risk has been an ongoing investment trend since at least March. With the newly recognized potential of additional turmoil entering the market psyche, including Russia and whether they would use the bomb, and whether the recent about-face for England’s monetary policy indicates deep trouble beneath the financial world’s surface has created further allocations to precious metals.
The suddenness of the move may have caught some large investors who have been bearish on silver and gold to make unexpected decisions on short positions they had been carrying. This short-squeeze is likely contributing to the strength of both gold and silver as it plays out.
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States. In addition, Great Lakes is fully engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. The Company has a long history of performing significant international projects. The Company employs experienced civil, ocean and mechanical engineering staff in its estimating, production and project management functions. In its over 131-year history, the Company has never failed to complete a marine project. Great Lakes owns and operates the largest and most diverse fleet in the U.S. dredging industry, comprised of approximately 200 specialized vessels. Great Lakes has a disciplined training program for engineers that ensures experienced-based performance as they advance through Company operations. The Company’s Incident-and Injury-Free® (IIF®) safety management program is integrated into all aspects of the Company’s culture. The Company’s commitment to the IIF® culture promotes a work environment where employee safety is paramount.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
More Awards. In the last week of the Federal government’s fiscal year, Great Lakes was the recipient of additional work. The Department of Defense contract awards reports four additional significant wins totaling a cumulative $109.8 million of potential new business.
Sole Awards. The Company received a $26.6 million award for dredging with work to be performed in Savannah, Georgia; Brunswick, Georgia; Wilmington, North Carolina; Morehead City, North Carolina; and Charleston, South Carolina; a $12.195 million contract for dredging with work to be performed in Irvington, Alabama; and a $21.531 million award for beach re-nourishment in Cape May, New Jersey.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures
Mining companies outperform broader market. During the third quarter, mining companies (as measured by the XME) declined 2.1% compared to a loss of 5.3% for the S&P 500 index. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) and Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) ETFs were down 11.9% and 7.9%, respectively. Gold, silver, copper, zinc, and lead futures prices fell 6.8%, 6.2%, 8.5%, 8.8%, and 0.4%, respectively. The commodity price declines reflect expected impacts of Federal Reserve monetary policy on interest rates, U.S. dollar strength, and the economic environment.
Outlook for precious metals. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 7.1% during the third quarter, while the yield on a 10-year treasury note increased from 3.0% to 3.8% as of September 30. While higher rates and a strong U.S. dollar pose significant headwinds for gold, an inflection point may be reached as investors seek to preserve value amid deteriorating economic conditions, increasing geopolitical uncertainty, and market volatility. While down 7.9% year-to-date through September 30, the price of gold has remained relatively resilient this year despite challenging headwinds. Not being able to benefit from strengthening gold prices, investors have focused more on silver’s industrial applications which make it more sensitive to economic expectations.
Industrial metals demand expected to remain challenged. The decline in industrial metals prices reflect concerns about economic growth in the U.S. and abroad. While the long-term investment case for owning industrial metals mining companies remains favorable, industrial metals prices may remain challenged into 2023.
Putting it all together. Precious metals prices may strengthen in advance of industrial metals. Therefore, investors may desire to lean into precious metals mining names to benefit from a positive shift in investor sentiment. While it may take longer for industrial metals to recover, an eventual return to economic growth could result in strong prices due to potential supply and demand imbalances.
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ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE
Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis. Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.” FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87
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Bassett Furniture Industries, Incorporated manufactures, markets, and retails home furnishings in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Wholesale, Retail, and Logistical Services. It is involved in the design, manufacture, sourcing, sale, and distribution of furniture products to a network of company-owned and licensee-owned Bassett Home Furnishings (BHF) retail stores, as well as independent furniture retailers; and wood and upholstery operations. As of September 16, 2017, the company operated a network of 91 company-and licensee-owned stores. It also provides shipping, delivery, and warehousing services to customers in the furniture industry. In addition, the company owns and leases retail store properties. It also distributes its products through other multi-line furniture stores, Bassett galleries or design centers, specialty stores, and mass merchants. Bassett Furniture Industries was founded in 1902 and is based in Bassett, Virginia.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
3Q22 Results. Revenue for the fiscal third quarter ended August 27, 2022 was $118 million, up 12.5% over the prior year period. Wholesale revenue rose 8.3% to $79 million, while Retail revenue rose 21.0% to $70.9 million. Excluding a $4.6 million one-time gain, operating income was $6.1 million, up 22.1%. Bassett reported net income from continuing operations of $7.8 million, or $0.84 per share, compared to net income from continuing operations of $3.4 million, or $0.35 per share, in the prior year. We had forecast revenue of $120 million and EPS from continuing operations of $0.65.
Retail the Star. Once again, Bassett’s retail network was the quarter’s star performer, with “best ever” third quarter deliveries of $70.9 million and $4.5 million of operating profit. Segment operating profits in the first nine months exceed any full year performance to date.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
