Wednesday, February 08, 2023
Alvopetro Energy Ltd.’s vision is to become a leading independent upstream and midstream operator in Brazil. Our strategy is to unlock the on-shore natural gas potential in the state of Bahia in Brazil, building off the development of our Caburé natural gas field and our strategic midstream infrastructure.
Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Production running ahead of our modeling. January sales volumes averaged 2,754 boepd ahead of our 2023-1Q quarterly estimate of 2,710 boepd. This represents a 1% increase over 2022-4Q volumes and a 10% increase over 2022-1Q volumes. The year-over-year increase reflects an increase in processing volumes last summer to 3,000 boepd. Alvopetro will be bringing two new wells to production in the next few months which could further increase sales.
Prices rise again under semi-annual price redetermination. Realized natural gas prices will increase to an expected level of $12.40/mcf (includes price redetermination and various adjustments). Redeterminations are based on a variety of factors including oil prices, gas prices, and exchange rates subject to price adjustment floors and ceilings that rise each period. New prices reflect a 3.6% increase from the previous determination. As we have discussed in the past, current redeterminations would be as high as $15/mcf absent a ceiling and will most likely continue to rise each period even if energy prices decline.
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