Thursday, April 02, 2026
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Updating 1Q 2026 estimates. We have lowered our 1Q and FY 2026 EPU estimates to $(0.02) and $2.20, respectively, from $0.61 and $2.60. We have marked-to-market ARLP’s holding of bitcoins, which amounted to 592 bitcoins as of year-end 2025. The price of bitcoin closed at $87,508.83 on December 31, 2025, compared to $68,233.31 on March 31. We anticipate that the value of digital assets in Q1 2026 could decrease by approximately $11.4 million if all bitcoins were held through the end of the first quarter. Because it would represent a non-cash unrealized loss, it has no impact on our adjusted EBITDA estimate. Moreover, our EPU estimate reflects a non-cash impairment charge of $43 million related to a decision to cease longwall production at the Mettiki Mining complex, although it has no impact on our adjusted EBITDA estimate.
FY 2026 estimates. We have also adjusted the cadence of coal sales throughout the year, with lower volumes in the first quarter, along with higher segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton. While we have lowered our FY 2026 EPU estimates, our adjusted EBITDA estimate declined only modestly to $708.3 million from $708.4 million due, in part, because our estimates reflect greater tonnage in the second half of the year when adjusted EBITDA expense per ton is lower, and margins are stronger. Quarterly coal sales volume is expected to be lowest in the first quarter, increase modestly in the second, and peak in the back half as longwall move disruptions abate.
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