Month: June 2023

Why a Recent Housing Survey Returned Such Extreme Results

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Home Buying Versus Home Selling Conditions

The underlying dynamics of the housing market are not what one might expect. Especially with home prices still near its peak after mortgage rates more than doubled over the past year and a half. One of the unique nuances of today’s housing market is what some are calling the “golden handcuffs” that may apply to anyone who has a home with a mortgage of 3.5% or lower. These owners are slow to sell; this is keeping a supply of homes off the market. The lack of homes for sale is keeping prices up despite the higher cost of borrowing. As witnessed in a monthly survey conducted by Fannie Mae, the attitudes of adults in the U.S., as it relates to buying, or selling, are fairly extreme, with many of the survey responses hit all-time highs and lows in terms of expectations.

Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey

The National Housing Survey (NHS) is a monthly temperature check of attitudes among the general population related to home-owning, renting, household finances, and confidence in the economy. Each respondent is asked more than 100 questions; this makes the survey far more detailed than other measures of housing attitudes or expectations. Six of the questions are used to derive the Home Purchasing Sentiment Index (HPSI).

The overall economy typically benefits from housing turnover, as new buyers decorate and make a house, or condo, a home.

Below is the noteworthy response data from the six questions Fannie Mae uses for its index.

Home Purchase Sentiment Index  (HPSI)

Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased in May by 1.2 points to 65.6. The HPSI is down 2.6 points compared to the same time last year.

Below are the May statistics on some of the most relevant questions.

Good/Bad Time to Buy:

The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 23% to 19%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 77% to 80%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased by 7 percentage points month over month.

Good/Bad Time to Sell:

The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home increased from 62% to 65%, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell decreased from 38% to 34%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell increased 8 percentage points month over month.

Source: Fannie Mae NHS Data Release

Home Price Expectations:

The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months increased from 37% to 39%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down decreased from 32% to 28%. The share who think home prices will stay the same increased from 31% to 33%. As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up increased 6 percentage points month over month.

Mortgage Rate Expectations:

The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 22% to 19%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from 47% to 50%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same remained unchanged at 31%. As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months decreased five percentage points month over month.

Job Loss Concern:

The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from 79% to 77%, while the percentage who say they are concerned increased from 21% to 22%. As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job decreased three percentage points month over month.

Household Income:

The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased from 24% to 20%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from 11% to 12%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same increased from 64% to 67%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased five percentage points month over month.

Spring is typically a time when people look to buy homes. With summer less than two weeks away, many who might have purchased a new home opted to wait, or could not find what they were looking for. “As we near the end of the spring homebuying season, the latest HPSI results indicate that affordability hurdles, including high home prices and mortgage rates, remain top of mind for consumers, most of whom continue to tell us that it’s a bad time to buy a home but a good time to sell one,” said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist.

“Consumers also indicated that they don’t expect these affordability constraints to improve in the near future, with significant majorities thinking that both home prices and mortgage rates will either increase or remain the same over the next year. Notably, the same factors impacting affordability may also be affecting the perceived ease of getting a mortgage. This was particularly true among renters: 81% believe it would be difficult to get a mortgage today, matching a survey high,” according to Palim.

Take Away

Consumers don’t expect housing affordability to improve anytime soon. At the same time, and for related reasons, rents have increased. As with most markets, one would expect if the buyers step back, prices might come down in response. An odd dynamic at play now, though, is that many people that are in a home, are staying put because moving might mean saying goodbye to a mortgage rate near 3% and then having to secure one that is nearly five percentage points higher.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Biotech Companies to Benefit from AI Efficiencies and Analysis

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Enabling Better Drug Discovery Outcomes with Machine Learning

Can the long road to bring new medical treatments or therapies to market be shortened by introducing artificial intelligence? AI applied to the early stage of the discovery process, which often involves new insight into a disease or treatment mechanism, may soon provide researchers many more potential candidates or designs to evaluate. AI can also help in the sorting and evaluation of these candidates to improve the success rates of those that make it into the lab for further study.

Benefits AI Brings to Biotech Research

The cost of bringing a single drug to market in terms of time and money is substantial. Estimates are in the $2.8 billion range, and the average timeline for drug development exceeds a decade. On top of this, there is a low level of certainty of taking a promising molecule all the way to market. The success rate of translating preclinical research findings into effective clinical treatments is low; failure rates are estimated to be around 90%.

The refinement of digital sorting and calculating with advanced computational technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), have the potential to revolutionize pharmaceutical research and development (R&D). Despite it still being a young technology, AI-enabled applications and algorithms are already making an impact in drug discovery and development processes.

One of the significant benefits of ML in drug development is its ability to recognize patterns and unveil insights that might be missed by conventional data analysis or take substantially less time to recognize. AI, and ML technologies can help a biotech company do precursory evaluation, accelerate the design and testing of molecules, streamline the testing processes, and provide a faster understanding along the way if the molecule will perform as expected. With improved clinical success and reduced costs throughout the development pipeline, AI may be shot in the arm the industry needs.

Adoption of AI in Biotechnology

While any full-scale adoption of AI in the pharmaceutical industry is still evolving and finding its place, implementation and investment are growing. Top global pharmaceutical companies have increased their R&D investment in AI by nearly 25% over the past three years – this indicates a recognition of the perceived benefits.

The interest and investment in AI drug discovery is fueled by several factors. As touched on earlier, a more efficient and cost-effective drug development process would be of great benefit. AI can significantly reduce both time and cost. And the sooner more effective treatments are available, the better. Chronic diseases, such as cancer, autoimmune problems, neurological disorders, and cardiovascular diseases, creates an ongoing demand for improved drugs and therapies. AI’s ability to analyze vast amounts of data, identify patterns, and then learn from the information at an accelerated rate can allow researchers to shorten timelines to final conclusions.  

Even more exciting is the growing availability of large datasets thanks to the rise of big data. With an increase in the volume, variety and velocity of data, and the AI-assisted ability to make sense of it, outcomes are expected to be improved. These datasets, obtained from various sources like electronic medical records and genomic databases, allow successful AI applications in drug discovery. Technological advancements, especially in ML algorithms, have been contributing to the growth of AI in medicine. And they are growing more sophisticated, allowing for accurate pattern identification in complex biological systems. Collaborations between academia, industry, and government agencies have further accelerated growth sharing knowledge and resources.

Trends in AI and ML Biotechnology

While considered a young technological field, AI-enabled drug discovery is being shaped by a number of new trends and technologies. Modern AI algorithms are now capable of analyzing intricate biological systems and foretelling the effects of medications on human cells and tissues. By detecting probable adverse effects early on in the development phase, the predictive ability helps prevent failures in the later stages.

By generating candidates that fit certain requirements, generative models can accelerate the design of completely new medications. But other technology is also now available to assist. By offering scalable processing resources, cloud computing dramatically cuts down on both time and expense. By simulating the interaction of hundreds of chemicals with disease targets, virtual drug screening enables the fast screening of drugs.

A higher understanding of disease biology and the discovery of new therapeutic targets is being made possible by integrative techniques that incorporate many data sources not available a short while ago.

Constraints on AI-Assisted Biotech Research

While AI can speed up certain aspects of drug discovery, it cannot replace most traditional lab testing. Hands-on experimentation and data collection on living organisms are expected to always be necessary, many of these processes during the clinical trial stages cannot be sped up.

Regulatory bodies, like the FDA, are also cautious about embracing AI fully, raising concerns about transparency and accountability in decision-making processes.

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Take Away

The near future of artificial intelligence and machine learning assuming a larger role in enabling drug discovery and more efficient R&D looks bright. The technology offers real promise for more efficient and cost-effective drug development processes – this would address the need for new therapies for chronic diseases.

The time-consuming process of testing on real subjects is not expected to be replaced or overly streamlined by technology, but finding subjects and evaluating results can also benefit from the new technology.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://5058440.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/5058440/cold%20outreach%20use%20case%20images/Pathways%20for%20Successful%20AI%20Adoption%20in%20Drug%20Development%20-%20VeriSIM%20Life.pdf

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/life-sciences/our-insights/ai-in-biopharma-research-a-time-to-focus-and-scale

https://www.drugdiscoveryonline.com/doc/the-global-market-for-ai-in-drug-discovery-to-sextuple-by-0001

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/life-sciences/our-insights/we-can-invent-new-biology-molly-gibson-on-the-power-of-ai

https://www.fda.gov/patients/learn-about-drug-and-device-approvals/drug-development-process

The Week Ahead –  FOMC Meet, Quadruple Witching Hour, Consumer Inflation

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

This Week’s Events are Sure to Keep Investors on Their Toes

I wouldn’t want to be Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week. The June 13-14 FOMC meeting may be the first meeting of the Committee that sets monetary policy, since January 2022, when a tightening of monetary targets doesn’t occur. The decision will come down to the wire as very important inflation data won’t be released until the first day of the meeting on Tuesday. While most on the Committee have expressed seeing current inflation data as problematic, there usually is a delay between when the Fed first alters policy, and the impact it creates.


Whether the Fed again acts to slow the economy, or takes a breather, announced at 2:00 on Wednesday, Powell will face reporters having to explain the Fed’s action or inaction. With likely less personal conviction than at previous press briefings, his responses may be more general than usual.

Monday 6/12


• 2:00 PM ET, The Treasury Statement is the U.S. Treasury’s release of a monthly accounting of the surplus or deficit of the government. Changes in the budget balance reflect Federal policy on spending and taxation. Forecasters see a $205.0 billion deficit in May that would compare with a $66.2 billion deficit in May one year ago, and a surplus of $176.2 billion in April this year.

Tuesday 6/13


• The June FOMC Meeting begins day one of two.


• 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has been below the historical average of 98 for the past 16 months in a row. May’s consensus is for a decline to 88.4 versus 89.0 in April.


• 8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index this month could move markets significantly if there is a significant change in the data from the previous month. Core price increases in May are not expected to have slowed. They are expected to keep their pace of April’s 0.4 percent monthly increase. The core’s year-over-year rate is seen easing to 5.3 from 5.5 percent. Overall price increases are expected to halve to 0.2 percent on the month from 0.4 percent and 4.1 percent on the year from 4.9 percent.

Wednesday 6/14

• 8:30 PM ET, The Producer Price Index – Final Demand number is another important inflation index that the FOMC members may want to peak at before voting Wednesday on any policy shift. After rising 0.2 percent in April, producer prices in May are expected to fall 0.1 percent. The annual rate in May is seen at 1.6 percent versus April’s plus 2.3 percent. May’s ex-food ex-energy rate is seen up 0.2 percent on the month and up 2.9 percent on the year, matching April’s 0.2 percent monthly rise and just below the month’s 3.2 percent yearly rate.


• 10:30 AM ET, The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be providing its scheduled weekly information on petroleum inventories, whether produced in the US or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.


• 2:00 PM ET, The FOMC Announcement is when the world gets to learn what the Fed decision is on interest rates, and why.


• 2:30 PM ET, The FOMC Chair press briefing provides additional context to the just announced direction of the FOMC’s policy decision. The questions and answers with the media can shed far more light of the intentions of the Committee than the carefully worded statement released at 2PM.

Thursday 6/15


• 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims for the June 10 week are expected to ease back to 250,000 versus the prior week’s large 28,000 jobs jump to 261,000. This has been a very closely watched report. If as expected, it would indicate the Fed has room to tighten further if other data remain strong.


• 8:30 AM ET, May Retail Sales are expected to be unchanged, matching April’s 0.4 percent rise.


• 8:30 PM ET, The Philadelphia Fed (Philly Fed) manufacturing index has been in contraction for the last ten reports. At minus 10.4 in May, with June’s consensus is at minus 13.2.


• 9:15 PM ET, Industrial Production is expected to push 0.1 percent higher in May after April’s 0.5 percent increase that was boosted by manufacturing output which jumped a surprising 1.0 percent. Manufacturing in May is seen up 0.2 percent.


• 4:30 PM ET, The Fed’s Balance Sheet is a weekly report presenting a consolidated balance sheet for all 12 Reserve Banks that lists factors supplying reserves into the banking system and factors absorbing reserves from the system. This has ben getting more attention as it indicates if the fed is on track with its announced quantitative tightening and if any bank borrowing has dramatically increased.

Friday 6/16


• 10:00 AM ET, Consumer Sentiment will be the first indication for June. It fell by 4.3 points to 59.2 last month, it is expected to inch up and report 60.5.


• Quadruple Witching is a phrase used to refer to the expiration of four different derivative contracts: Stock index futures, Stock index options, Single-stock options, Single-stock futures. Quadruple witching happens four times a year, on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. It is a time of heightened volatility in the markets, as traders adjust their positions in anticipation of the expiration of these contracts.

What Else


The key factors that the Fed will consider when making its decision are the pace and trend of economic growth, the level of inflation, the strength of the labor market, and the risk of recession.
Additionally, the FOMC will have to determine if the moves to date will have a more substantial impact if allowed to have more time to have an impact.


While OPEC is cutting output and it seems like we are on a path of oil and natural gas prices again inching up, Alvopetro Energy (ALVOF), an enviable gas company, headquartered in Canada, operating in Brazil, will be conducting roadshows in New York and St. Louis. Learn more about attending here.
Paul Hoffman
Managing Editor, Channelchek

Lifeway Foods (LWAY) – Family Drama Part Two; With A Twist

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, June 09, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Family. The saga between Lifeway CEO Julie Smolyansky and her brother, Edward, and mother, Ludmila, continues, with each side claiming the other breached the Proxy settlement reached last July. While the legal battle continues to unfold, the most recent Court decisions determined, “… no basis in law or fact that remains as to the invalidity of Mr. Smolyansky’s nomination of an alternate slate of directors and such nomination is void ab initio and is not a valid solicitation,” according to the Company.

The Twist. In a twist, David Kanen of Kanen Wealth Management issued a letter sent to Julie Smolyansky and the Board of Directors. According to the letter, Mr. Kanen owns approximately 4.1% of the outstanding LWAY shares and intends to vote his shares in support of the recent slate nominated by Edward and Ludmila Smolyansky.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Eskay Mining Corp. (ESKYF) – Thoughts on the 2023 Drilling Program

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, June 09, 2023

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Location, location, location. Eskay Mining is focused on the exploration and development of precious metal volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) targets along the Eskay rift in a region of northwest British Columbia known as the Golden Triangle. The company’s Eskay precious metal rich VMS project encompasses 52,600 hectares, or 26 square kilometers, of highly prospective property within proximity to several world class gold deposits, including the adjacent past-producing Eskay Creek Mine, a high-grade gold-silver rich VMS deposit considered among the world’s most precious metal-rich volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits. 

2023 drill program. The 2023 drill program will focus on newly identified geophysical targets at Maroon Cliffs and Hexagon Mercury, along with additional work at Tarn Lake, TV and Cumberland. In total, we expect the program will entail roughly 6,000 to 7,000 meters of drilling.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

What is the Espionage Act? –  A Nuts and Bolts Description

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Understanding the US Espionage Act of 1917

This month marks the 106th anniversary of the Espionage Act. Enacted on June 15, 1917, just a couple of months after the United States entered WWI. While the Act is not specifically related to stocks and other investments, discussions of the Espionage Act may, at times, overtake the news and even distract market players or potentially drive market mood. So it is best to have an accurate understanding of the components. The Espionage Act is a federal law that criminalizes spying and other activities that could be harmful to US national security. The variations and intricacies involve spying for foreign governments, leaking classified information, obstructing selective service, and using the US Postal Service to promote interests counter to those of the USA.

The Espionage Act Sections

The Act has five main sections:

Section 792: This section prohibits gathering or transmitting defense information with the intent or reason to believe that the information may be used to the injury of the United States or to the advantage of any foreign nation.

Section 793: This section prohibits gathering or transmitting classified information with the intent or reason to believe that the information may be used to the injury of the United States or to the advantage of any foreign nation.

Section 794: This section prohibits delivering defense information to a foreign government or to a person who is not entitled to receive it.

Section 795: This section prohibits photographing or sketching defense installations without permission.

Section 798: This section prohibits disclosing classified information to unauthorized persons.

The Espionage Act Uses

The Espionage Act has been used to prosecute a wide range of offenses, including leaking information, recruiting spies, and creating disobedience among military ranks.  

Espionage: Espionage is the act of spying for a foreign government. Espionage can involve gathering or transmitting classified information, or it can involve recruiting or assisting spies.

Leaking Classified Information: Leaking classified information is the act of disclosing classified information to unauthorized persons. Leaking can be done intentionally or unintentionally.

Inciting insubordination in the military: Inciting insubordination in the military is the act or behavior of encouraging military personnel to disobey orders. This can be done by spreading rumors, making false statements, or even simply providing material support to those who are planning to disobey orders.

The Espionage Act is a powerful tool that can be used to protect national security. However, the law has also been criticized for its potential to infringe on First Amendment rights. The Espionage Act has been challenged in court on several occasions, the results have been mixed, but as it applies to first amendment rights during wartime, the courts typically sidewith the state.

Espionage is the practice of spying or using spies to obtain secret or confidential information from non-disclosed sources or divulging of the same without the permission of the holder of the information. – Oxford Dictionary

Additions and Amendments

Since 1917 the Act has seen additions and addendums. These include:

Sedition Act of 1918: The Sedition Act was passed as an amendment to the Espionage Act. It criminalized various forms of expression, including any spoken or written words that aimed to incite disloyalty or contempt towards the US government, the Constitution, or the flag. First Amendment challenges, during wartime have mostly failed. The Wilson administration made it against the act to use the US Post Office for any mailing that may violate te act – 74 newspapers had been denied mailing privileges

USA Patriot Act, 2001: Following the September 11 attacks, the USA PATRIOT Act expanded the scope of the Espionage Act by enhancing surveillance and investigative powers. It broadened the definition of “national defense” and allowed for more extensive monitoring of suspected espionage activities.

Take Away

The Espionage Act of 1917 prohibited obtaining information, recording pictures, or copying descriptions of any information relating to the national defense with intent or reason to believe that the information may be used for the injury of the United States or to the advantage of any foreign nation. Since 1917 there have been a couple of new amendments to the original law.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/1045/espionage-act-of-1917

https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/historic-document-library/detail/espionage-act-of-1917-and-sedition-act-of-1918-1917-1918

Shell Oil to Announce Scrapping Targets on Oil and Gas Output  

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Oil and Gas Will Remain Central to Shell

Shell has looked at its unimpressive returns on renewable energy and the booming profits in its oil and gas divisions and has decided to pivot from its previous course. In an effort to regain investor confidence, Shell’s (SHEL.L) CEO, Wael Sawan, is expected to make a formal announcement of the revised strategic direction of the oil company on June 14, according to an exclusive report in Reuters.

Shifting Gears

Shell’s CEO Sawan, who previously headed the company’s oil, gas, and renewables divisions, is expected in New York next week to formalize the details of his vision, it will include updates on capital allocation, shareholder payouts and “strategic choices we’re making,” according to Sawan.

What is known before the full announcement is that Shell expects it will keep company oil output steady or slightly higher into 2030. This would represent a change from an ongoing deemphasis on oil and gas production that Shell (and other large oil companies) had previously committed themselves to. Shell has been struggling with poor returns and is looking to regain investor confidence.

On June 14th, Sawan will reportedly make the announcement at an investor conference that they are scrapping a target to reduce oil output by 1% to 2% per year. The company is already near its goal for production cuts, which it attained through selling oil assets, including its U.S. shale business.

 Returns from oil and gas typically range between 10% to %20, while those for solar and wind projects tend to be between 5% to 8%.

About Shell’s New CEO

Sawan rose to the level of CEO in January. As the new head, with solid experience in both oil and gas, and the renewable division, vowed to improve Shell’s stock performance as it lagged other energy companies. He now plans to improve company performance by keeping oil and gas central to the company’s business at least through the end of the decade – Sawan says that efforts to shift to low-carbon businesses cannot come at the expense of profits.

Shell’s former CEO, Ben van Beurden introduced the carbon reduction targets and the energy transition strategy. Sawan’s more cautious approach to the energy transition is a reversal of his predecessor’s direction.

Sustainability and Profits

In recent months the company intentionally stalled several sustainability and renewable projects, including those involving offshore wind, hydrogen and biofuels, it pointed to weak returns. Shell is also exiting its European power retail businesses, which had been thought, only a few years ago, as key to its energy transition.

Oil Company Profitability

As with many of its competitors, Shell reported record profits last year, driven mainly by strong oil and gas prices. However, the company produced 20% fewer barrels-per-day over 2019 production. Output is now expected to be flat to up slightly into 2030. New projects would have to meet internal profitability thresholds, and also depend on the success of exploration.

The shift away from further cuts in oil and gas production at Shell is similar to a move by rival BP (BP.L) made earlier in 2023. At BP, CEO Bernard Looney exited further plans to cut oil and gas output by 40% (by 2030).

A true global company, Shell Oil, headquartered in Hague, Netherlands, is a leading supplier of refined petroleum products and remains one of the world’s largest producers of oil and natural gas.

Investor Focused

According to Reuters,  “a key concern for Sawan has been the significantly weaker performance of Shell’s shares since late 2021 compared with its U.S. rivals Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and Chevron (CVX.N), which both plan to grow fossil fuel output.” Shell’s formal announcement next week is expected to include no change in Shell’s target of becoming a net zero emitter by mid-century as part of the Powering Progress energy transition strategy it announced in 2021, which he has described as “still the right strategy.”

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

Reuters – hell Pivots Back to Oil

Shell Oil – Who We Are

FAU, Home of NobleCon19 Equity Conference, Hits New Highs

Posted on by cpatches

On the heels of the announcement that NobleCon19, Noble Capital Markets 19th Annual Emerging Growth Equity Conference, will be held at FAU, and the achievement of the Owls basketball team making it to the Final Four, Florida Atlantic University College of Business’ Executive Education program earned a prestigious global endorsement in the 2023 Financial Times rankings for open enrollment professional education programs.

FAU ranked No. 2 in the United States and was the only university in Florida and one of only seven in the U.S. to be honored. The rankings are considered the gold standard for executive education coursework across the globe.

“It’s clear that we are making a difference in the professional advancement of all our students,” said Daniel Gropper, Ph.D., dean of FAU’s College of Business. “I am very proud of our students, faculty and staff for making this possible.”

FAU also ranked No. 1 in the U.S. and No. 4 in the world for female participation and No. 17 globally for overall satisfaction. Financial Times establishes the rankings using student feedback, course design, faculty, teaching methods and facilities.

FAU’s high-quality offerings include the most diversified selection of more than 60 national and international certification and professional development programs, said Vegar Wiik, executive director of FAU Executive Education. He added that a new state-of-the-art building, the Schmidt Family Complex for Academic and Athletic Excellence, is equipped with the latest technology that allows FAU to offer top-notch programs and corporate training. “We are thrilled that this December the facility will transform into NobleCon19, with 100+ public company executive teams and the large audience expected to learn more about them,” Wiik said. “And with the early announcement that the 43rd President of the United States, George W. Bush will headline, the excitement continues to build.”

In addition to hosting NobleCon19, FAU’s Edu-Vantage Partner Program, which works with businesses, corporations and organizations to provide a high-quality educational strategy for fulfilling their employee education packages, established partnerships with JM Family Enterprises and NextEra Energy, parent company of Florida Power & Light, to offer full-time associates full tuition for both undergraduate and graduate degrees and certifications.

NobleCon19 is scheduled for December 3-5, 2023, at FAU College of Business, Executive Education in Boca Raton, Florida. Although institutional investors, licensed brokers and accredited investors will be in attendance, NobleCon19 is open to all individuals and organizations interested in learning more about these companies.  

To receive NobleCon agenda updates and registration opportunities, join Channelchek.com, Companies with market capitalization of $3 billion or less wishing to learn more about presenting at NobleCon19 can Inquire Here.

About Noble Capital Markets

Noble Capital Markets, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 as a full-service SEC / FINRA registered broker-dealer, dedicated exclusively to serving underfollowed emerging growth companies through investment banking, wealth management, trading & execution, and equity research activities. Over the past 39 years, Noble has raised billions of dollars for companies and published more than 45,000 equity research reports. For more information, visit www.noblecapitalmarkets.com or email contact@noblecapitalmarkets.com.

About Florida Atlantic University Florida Atlantic University, established in 1961, officially opened its doors in 1964 as the fifth public university in Florida. Today, the University serves more than 30,000 undergraduate and graduate students across six campuses located along the southeast Florida coast. In recent years, the University has doubled its research expenditures and outpaced its peers in student achievement rates. Through the coexistence of access and excellence, FAU embodies an innovative model where traditional achievement gaps vanish. FAU is designated a Hispanic-serving institution, ranked as a top public university by U.S. News & World Report and a High Research Activity institution by the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching. For more information, visit www.fau.edu.

Release – Comtech Announces Results for its Third Quarter of Fiscal 2023 and Updates Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2023 Financial Targets

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com

Research News and Market Data on CMTL

COMTECH – JUN 8, 2023 | 2 MIN READ

Q3 Consolidated Net Sales Up 1.9% sequentially to $136.3 Million

Cash Flows Provided by Operating Activities for the Quarter was $16.6 Million

MELVILLE, N.Y. –
June 8, 2023–Comtech (NASDAQ: CMTL) today announced its third quarter fiscal 2023 financial results and updated its fourth quarter fiscal 2023 financial targets in a letter to shareholders which is now posted to the Investor Relations section of Comtech’s website.

Investors are invited to access the third quarter fiscal 2023 shareholder letter at its web site at comtech.com/investors/. A copy of the letter will also be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission in a Form 8-K.

Comtech also intends to host a previously scheduled earnings conference call at 5:00PM ET today. Individuals can access the conference call by dialing (800) 267-6316 (domestic) or (203) 518-9783 (international) and using the conference I.D. of “Comtech.” A replay of the conference call will be available for two weeks by dialing (800) 839-2417 or (402) 220-7209. A live webcast of the call is also available at comtech.com/investors/.

About Comtech

Comtech Telecommunications Corp. is a leading global technology company providing terrestrial and wireless network solutions, next-generation 9-1-1 emergency services, satellite and space communications technologies, and cloud native capabilities to commercial and government customers around the world. Our unique culture of innovation and employee empowerment unleashes a relentless passion for customer success. With multiple facilities located in technology corridors throughout the United States and around the world, Comtech leverages our global presence, technology leadership, and decades of experience to create the world’s most innovative communications solutions.For more information, please visit www.comtech.com.

Certain information in this press release contains statements that are forward-looking in nature and involve certain significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from such forward-looking information. The Company’s Securities and Exchange Commission filings identify many such risks and uncertainties. Any forward- looking information in this press release is qualified in its entirety by the risks and uncertainties described in such Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

PCMTL

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230608005705/en/

Investor Relations

Robert Samuels

investors@comtech.com

Baudax Bio (BXRX) – More Positive Top-Line Results From Phase II BX1000 Trial

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, June 08, 2023

Baudax Bio is a pharmaceutical company focused on innovative products for acute care settings. ANJESO is the first and only 24-hour, intravenous (IV) COX-2 preferential non-steroidal anti-inflammatory (NSAID) for the management of moderate to severe pain. In addition to ANJESO, Baudax Bio has a pipeline of other innovative pharmaceutical assets including two novel neuromuscular blocking agents (NMBs) and a proprietary chemical reversal agent specific to these NMBs. For more information, please visit www.baudaxbio.com.

Gregory Aurand, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Healthcare Services & Medical Devices, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Deeper dive into the results.  The electomyography (EMG) detailed analysis confirmed the earlier top-line data released showing the highest dose of BX1000 was comparable to rocuronium (current standard). There was a clear dose response for BX1000 on maximum T1 suppression, with comparable results for the 1.5x ED95  dose of BX1000 and the 2x ED95 dose of rocuronium, strongly suggesting lower BX1000 dosing needed.

What is T1 suppression?  Train of Four (TOF) testing is a method of peripheral nerve stimulation, using electrodes placed along the nerve pathway. An electrical impulse will cause a contraction (twitch). With increased NMB dosing, the twitch response fades, with the fourth (T4) response lost first, then T3, then T2, and finally the first (T1). The number of twitches observed indicates the NMB level achieved, determining the minimum amount needed to achieve the desired effect, while reducing the likelihood of over-paralysis and prolonged muscle weakness. A T1 level of suppression (or one twitch) represents approximately 90% block, a level suitable for short term procedures including intubation. 


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Vera Bradley (VRA) – The Transformation Has Begun

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, June 08, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1QFY24 Revenue Light. Net revenue of $94.4 million was below our and consensus estimates of $99 million and $99.7 million, respectively. The revenue miss was driven by some traffic weakness at factory stores during March, although subsequent months have shown improvement. However, Pura Vida showed its first y-o-y sales improvement in five quarters, while Vera Bradley full line and e-comm produced solid results.

But Margins Improved. Gross margin expanded 150 basis points to 54.8% reflecting lower freight costs and inventory sell through while SG&A fell to 58.9% of revenue from 60.3% (both non-GAAP) last year reflecting strong cost control. GAAP EPS loss was $0.15, while adjusted EPS loss was $0.09, compared to EPS loss of $0.21 and $0.18, respectively, in 1QFY23, and our $0.19 EPS loss estimate.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

When Shorting a Stock Becomes Illegal

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Crossing the Line into Naked Short Selling

Shorting a stock by itself is not illegal and can even be thought of as helping the liquidity in the company’s shares as many more continuously change hands (volume). Brokers and institutional investors can also reap additional benefits. For all participating investors, it allows the opportunity for money to be made as long as the stock is moving up or down. However, among the legal shorts, there are illegal short positions being made. This has been the subject of controversy, Volkswagen in 2008, GameStop 2021, and AMC which has worked to end attempts of this kind of activity in its stock.

The Upside-Downside of Legal Short Selling

Selling a stock that you don’t own puts you, the seller at a greater risk than buying a stock. The reason is simple, stocks can theoretically go up by an infinite amount, however, they can only go down by their current value. If your shorts go up, you are losing value in your position. With this risk in mind, selling shares you don’t own, or a shorting strategy, certainly can work in your favor if your risk management short-circuits are in place and the stock’s value erodes.

A legal short position involves your broker borrowing shares on your behalf, perhaps from a large institutional holder, paying them a daily accrual rebate rate (interest) during the period that you hold the short position. The strategy is to buy them back at a lower price in the future than what you sold them at today.

Crossing the Line to Naked Short Selling

The word “naked” when it comes to most investments, suggests that you are without that which you are trading. If the same amount of shares has been borrowed on your behalf or by you as part of your short transaction, you are not naked in the position.

Naked shorting is the illegal practice of short selling shares that have not been affirmatively determined to exist. This can happen when there are so many market players thinking shares will decline in value that more shares are sold than obtainable to back up each trade.

Despite the SEC making this illegal after 2008 in response to some failing investment banks that had been sold beyond the number of shares in existence, naked shorting still goes on today.

One example still fresh in many self-directed investors’ minds is GameStop (GME) shares. In 2021, traders reportedly sold short around 140% of GME shares outstanding. This meant a substantial amount of shares of the company were sold that didn’t exist. What allowed these trades go through was something called ‘phantom’ sales, the tool of naked short selling.

Phantom Sales?

The term “phantom sales” sounds even more nefarious than “naked shorts.” What it means, is that the naked short sellers deposited digital IOUs into buyers’ accounts, promising that they will locate shares and make good delivery to the buyer as soon as possible. Unfortunately, it can become impossible when more shares are sold than exist. That creates a failure to deliver or simply “FTD” which is used in a hashtag that most that follow AMC Theatres (AMC) are familiar with.

When a stock gets oversold to the point of more shares sold than exist, it can be very bullish for the holders. This is because the short sellers desperately need to make good on their IOUs held by buyers.

If buying demand picks up in the stocks, the short positions are considered to be getting “squeezed” –  a “short squeeze” is taking place.

In the case of GME, communication made better through social media channels and stock message boards allowed individual investors to loosely coordinate and heighten the squeeze on short sellers, including large institutional hedge funds that may have had naked short positions.

Naked Shorts Banned

Imagine the problems and stress that occurs when trades don’t settle on time due to naked short-selling delivery failures.

The SEC banned the practice of naked short-selling in the United States in 2008 after the financial crisis. The ban applies to naked shorting only and not to other short-selling activities. Prior to the ban, in 2007 the regulator amended a 2005 rule called Regulation SHO. The amendment limits possibilities for naked shorting by removing loopholes that existed for some broker-dealers in 2007. Regulation SHO requires lists to be published that track stocks with unusually high trends in failing to deliver (FTD) shares.

These lists are available to investors and often used to determine where activity may become frantic.

A variant that is not banned, or in violation of SEC is rules is an FTD where the shares were located, but there is a legitimate failure to deliver. That is the short seller contacted a holder (usually through a broker) and they both agreed to terms of the short-seller borrowing authentic shares of the company.

Take Away

Short selling is a normal function of trading and not frowned upon by the regulators. However you have to be in touch with shares that are available for you to borrow at an agreed-upon interest rate. Otherwise you may find you are naked selling because you don’t own the shares, and can not make delivery.  

These rules apply to stocks that trade on a national exchange. For those stocks not listed on a major securities exchange, the SEC may require more disclosure from the transacting broker.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Gensler’s Predecessor Says SEC “Regulatory Whiplash” Bad for Investors

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image: Securities and Exchange Commission, March 2019 (Flickr)

Is this the Most Aggressive SEC Ever? Former Commission Head Thinks So

Gary Gensler was nominated head of the Securities and Exchange Commission just after SEC Chairman Jay Clayton stepped down on December 23, 2020. Cryptocurrency exchanges welcomed the incoming Chair’s appointment as “Gensler unites a pro-regulation history with a pro-crypto viewpoint, and could finally implement the regulatory clarity many in the industry have desired,” said an opinion piece published in Coinbase two months after. It has now been two years, and Chair Gensler’s predecessor, in his new role, shared his views and criticisms this week.

Former SEC chairman Jay Clayton, who is now working in the private sector, said he believes government regulators could do a much better job serving investors and the broader financial markets. The comments came during an address (June 7) in Orlando as he spoke at the BNY Mellon Pershing Insite 23 Conference. In his talk, Clayton highlighted big differences between the SEC under the Biden administration in comparison to the Trump presidency.

“I think it’s pretty clear we’re in a very highly business-skeptical and commercial-skeptical regulatory environment,” he said. “Any time you go to extremes, either way, you get more bad than good.”

Clayton, is now the nonexecutive chair at Apollo Global Management, a large alternative asset manager. He held the position of SEC chairman from May 2017 through December 2020. He believes the regulatory whiplash leaves anyone participating in the financial markets with more questions than answers.

“People don’t know what is really happening, how long it is going to last, and what they should do about it,” he said in reference to what has been described as the most aggressive SEC ever.

Clayton acknowledged that his business is with an alternative investment house, and that he might be accused of “talking his book” as a representative of a firm that manages private investments, but explained that he believes retail class investors are being locked out of suitable investments. He believes there should be a democratization of alternative investments, which has been an SEC focus. The accredited investor policies may not be best for the average person planning for the future.

“Capital formation these days largely comes from outside the public markets, yet the investing public is largely held outside those private markets,” he said. “All investors should have access to a portfolio that looks like a well-managed pension fund. With the help of a lot of the people in this room, I think we’re going to be able to do it,” he optimistically said addressing the large group from the wealth management industry.

He called on investment management firms to do their part to help regulators by making an effort to create products that are more broadly suited to the full universe of investors. Clayton took particular issue with the current accreditation rules. Saying the 40-year-old accredited investor rule doesn’t jive with today’s reality, an environment where individual investors are largely responsible for their own retirement income.

The former SEC head pointed out what he thought to be absurd, mentioning qualified retirement accounts (401k, 403b, IRAs) that give retail investors access to highly liquid mutual funds and perhaps ETFs, but not less liquid investments that would be better suited for long-term investing objectives.

“You’re paying for liquidity that you don’t need and can’t access,” Clayton said. “Pick a target-date fund, for example, why wouldn’t there be a sliver of privates or alternatives in there? If I’m a 401(k) investor, I should be able to get something that looks like a Calpers portfolio. Why wouldn’t you have a 10% slice of privates in your retirement portfolio when you’re 50 years old?” He said referring to the large institution managing the California teachers retirement portfolio.

Take Away

The former SEC head Jay Clayton believes that the sharp move from lowering  regulatoryinvestment  hurdles, to erecting the most aggressive in history under the current leadership of Gary Gensler, is bad for investors. He doesn’t argue strongly for either side, as much as he is against sudden changes and the impact it has on investors.

Clayton also supports alternative funds for the average retail investor, especially as it relates to long-term savings such as retirement accounts.

Insite23, the investor conference Jay Clayton was addressing in Orlando, FL, draws wealth management professionals from across the US. This coming December, the Channelchek-sponsored investor conference, NobleCon19 will be held in Boca Raton, Fl. This annual conference, in its 19th year, draws institutional and self-directed investors from beyond the US, who wish to attend presentations, breakout sessions, and panel discussions with CEOs, and even former government leaders. Those attending this year’s NobleCon will get to assess lesser-known investment opportunities along with the current investment climate. Attendees can look forward to two days filled with actionable opportunities explained by those with direct knowledge at the company’s helm.

For information on attending Nobecon19, sponsoring, or presenting, click here.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

State of Crypto: How SEC Chair Gary Gensler Could Differ From Predecessor Jay Clayton

Apollo Capital

Former SEC Chair Clayton makes case for democratizing alternative investments

BNY Mellon Insite