The United Auto Workers (UAW) union is barreling towards a confrontation with Detroit automakers as contracts for 145,000 members expire Thursday night. With little progress made in negotiations so far, the UAW is planning targeted strikes to bring production to a halt.
The contracts cover union workers at Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, which operates the Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Ram brands. If new four-year agreements are not reached by the 11:59 pm deadline, the UAW will initiate selective walkouts aimed at crippling operations.
According to UAW President Shawn Fain, the union will announce which unspecified facilities will strike at 10 pm Thursday absent any last-minute deals. He confirmed the UAW does not plan to continue bargaining on Friday if it moves forward with work stoppages.
Experts say the UAW could paralyze North American auto output quickly by striking only one or two key plants per automaker. For example, halting production at a couple engine and transmission factories could idle up to three-quarters of assembly lines in less than a week.
This targeted approach allows the UAW to conserve its $825 million strike fund, which would drain rapidly if all 145,000 members walked out simultaneously. Members on strike receive $500 weekly from the fund.
Fain has demanded an immediate 20% raise in the first year of new contracts, plus 5% hikes in each subsequent year of the 4-year deal. But automakers have proposed more modest increases in the range of 17-20% over the life of the contract.
The UAW is also seeking to limit the use of temporary workers, who receive lower pay and fewer benefits compared to permanent employees. This has emerged as a major sticking point, especially with Stellantis.
All automakers stated they aim to reach agreements before midnight to avert walkouts. There remains a small chance of an eleventh-hour deal, though Fain insisted the deadline is firm and the UAW is prepared to strike.
The union could opt to reach separate contracts with one or two automakers while targeting the other(s) for strikes. Stellantis is seen as most prone to a walkout due its greater temporary workforce and past corruption scandals tying executives to union leaders.
Ford has not had a national strike since 1976, giving it leverage in negotiations. A short-term extension past Thursday is possible if talks are progressing, but Fain has repeatedly said 11:59 pm is the “deadline, not a reference point.”
Industry experts predict almost certain strikes at some Stellantis facilities. Potential targets include transmission plants in Indiana and Michigan. Shutting down a couple engine or transmission factories per automaker could rapidly idle assembly lines across North America.
In the event of a walkout, Fain instructed members not on strike to remain working under the expired contract rather than an extension. This could allow non-striking workers to collect state unemployment benefits and ease pressure on the UAW strike fund.
With the auto industry struggling with shortages and high inflation, a prolonged strike could have devastating consequences. But workers want a fair share of record profits, amid union concerns temporary employees erode hard-fought gains.
If negotiators walk away prior to midnight as talks deteriorate, last-ditch deals become unlikely. The two sides remain far apart on critical issues with hours left before contracts lapse. Against this backdrop, targeted strikes at U.S. auto plants seem imminent.