President Trump on Friday put the likelihood of a trade agreement with the European Union at “50-50,” casting a shadow over negotiations that had shown signs of momentum in recent weeks. With an August 1 deadline looming, both sides had expressed optimism that a deal could be reached, but Trump’s remarks suggest growing skepticism — or a last-minute negotiating tactic. The European Commission’s president is set to meet Trump this weekend at his golf course in Scotland in what may be a final push to secure an agreement.
Simultaneously, complications are surfacing in a newly announced trade deal with Japan. Just days after Trump unveiled the $550 billion Japanese investment and a baseline 15% tariff on Japanese imports, reports indicate that Tokyo and Washington are already at odds over how profits will be shared. Japan is seeking a structure tied to its sizable capital contribution, while U.S. negotiators insist on retaining as much as 90% of profits, citing regulatory, tax, and infrastructure advantages offered to foreign investors. The discord raises questions about whether this marquee deal can remain intact — or if it’s the first crack in what could become a patchwork of volatile trade relationships.
Trump’s comments come as the administration prepares to issue formal letters to over 200 nations, outlining revised tariff schedules that will reportedly range from 15% to 50% depending on the nature of each bilateral relationship. The President indicated that more punitive tariffs are likely for nations that have either resisted new trade talks or failed to reach favorable terms, singling out Canada as a continued source of frustration. He suggested a 35% tariff could be imposed on Canadian imports not protected under the USMCA agreement, reigniting tensions with one of America’s largest trading partners.
Elsewhere, new details emerged about recent U.S. deals with the Philippines and Indonesia. Both countries will see their exports to the U.S. hit with a 19% tariff, adding to the growing list of nations now operating under a Trump-era trade framework defined by high tariffs and deal-by-deal arrangements. Meanwhile, China remains in the mix, with Trump noting that the two sides now have the “confines of a deal” in place ahead of upcoming talks. Whether those talks produce meaningful outcomes or simply delay further escalation remains to be seen.
Taken together, this flurry of trade activity signals a significant reshaping of global commerce under Trump’s second term. With tariffs now functioning not only as economic tools but also as political levers, the landscape for investors is shifting rapidly. Industries tied to global supply chains — particularly those reliant on imports — could face tighter margins, delayed deliveries, and strategic realignment. On the flip side, the push for domestic manufacturing and reshoring may boost middle-market industrials, infrastructure firms, and logistics providers.
While the tone of Trump’s trade doctrine remains combative, the opportunities for agile investors are growing clearer. As countries jockey for favorable terms and multinationals rethink their sourcing strategies, small and mid-cap companies operating domestically could be among the biggest beneficiaries. Whether these deals hold or fall apart, one thing is certain: the age of blanket trade agreements is giving way to a more fragmented, transactional world economy — and that’s a game middle-market investors should be watching closely.