A New Quarter Begins Following Market Strength
Welcome to a holiday-shortened trading week. Yes the U.S. stock market will be closed on Friday. In terms of economic numbers and reports it should be very quiet as we begin the second quarter of 2023. These “quiet” weeks, when the market is not sure where to focus, have proven themselves to be volatile surprises as focus is on unexpected events instead. Last week the major indices resumed its march higher. All closed in the green for the week. Market participants are looking for follow-through to confirm whether we’ve entered a new bull market.
Monday 4/03
- 9:45 AM ET, The final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March is expected to come in at 49.3. This would be unchanged from the mid-month flash to indicate a slight economic contraction.
- 10:00 AM ET, Construction Spending is expected to have experienced a flat month for February as the forecast is expected to show unchanged following January’s 0.1% decline.
- 10:00 AM ET, The ISM manufacturing index has been below 50, indicating a contraction for the last four months. March’s consensus estimate is 47.5 versus February’s 47.7.
Tuesday 4/04
- 10:00 AM ET, Factory Orders, a leading indicator, are expected to fall 0.4 percent in February versus January’s 1.6 percent decline. Durable goods orders for February, which have already been released and are one of two major components of this report.
- 10:00 AM ET, JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) have been strong at 10.82 million in January. Forecasters see February openings falling to a still high 10.4 million.
- 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for February are expected to rise to a 4.17 million annualized rate after January’s lower-than-expected 4.0 million rate.
Wednesday 4/05
- 10:00 AM ET, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is expected to slow after a 55.1 read in February, to a still positive (above 50) 54.4 level in March.
Thursday 4/06
- 7:30 AM ET, The Challenger Job Cuts Report counts and categorizes announcements of corporate layoffs based on mass layoff data from state Departments of Labor. The prior reading was 77,770.
- 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims for the week ended April 1 week are expected to come in at 201,000 versus 198,000 in the prior week.
- 10:00 AM ET, James Bullard, the St. Louis Fed President will be making public comments.
Friday 4/07
- There are many stories of a market crash on Good Friday, are they true? Learn why the stock market is closed on the Friday before traditional Easter. Here is the link for why the markets are closed.
*The bond markets and the rest of the banking system follow a different schedule and are open.
- 8:30 AM ET, Employment, A 240,000 rise is expected for nonfarm payroll growth in March. This compares to 311,000 in February. Average hourly earnings in March are expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month for a year-over-year rate of 4.3 percent; these would compare with 0.2 and 4.6 percent in February. March’s unemployment rate is expected to hold unchanged at 3.6 percent.
- 2:00 PM ET, The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Industry Association (SIFMA) is recommending an early close for those operating under their purview. The U.S. stock market is closed.
What Else
OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, is due to hold a virtual meeting of its ministerial monitoring panel, which includes Russia and Saudi Arabia, on Monday. OPEC+ is likely to cut oil output at a meeting scheduled for Monday. Oil has recovered to above $80 a barrel for Brent crude after falling to near $70 on March 20.
Media companies are attracting more interest. Investors in Florida this week with an interest in this sector are welcome to see if there is a seat available to them at one of three different roadshow events with Beasley Broadcast Group. Information is available at this link.
Managing Editor, Channelchek
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