Tag: Weekly

The Week Ahead – Housing, Manufacturing, and Fed District Reporting

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Could This Week’s Economic Data Impact November’s FOMC Meeting?

There are three economic releases investors will focus on this coming week. These will provide information on housing, manufacturing, and how the economy in each Federal Reserve District is doing (Fed’s Beige Book).

Moving out a little further on the calendar, expectations for another 75 basis point rate hike at the November 1-2 FOMC meeting are widely held. The confidence in the Fed move, even though two weeks away, can be attributed to higher-than-expected inflation reports last week and the constant pounding of the drum by Fed policymakers, saying that taming inflation will remain the FOMC’s priority.

What’s on Tap for investors:

Monday 10/17

  • 8:30 AM Empire State Manufacturing Index, will be reported. Expectations are for manufacturing to have shrank -2.5%. The Empire Manufacturing Survey gives a detailed look at how busy New York state’s manufacturing sector has been and where things are headed. Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. Some of the Empire State Survey sub-indexes also provide insight into commodity prices and inflation. The bond market can be sensitive to the inflation ramifications of this report. The stock market pays attention because it is the first clue on the U.S. manufacturing sector, ahead of the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey.
  • 8:45 Noble Capital Markets’ Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, provides indepth report on current state and outlook of the Digital Media segment of the Media and Entertainment sector.

Tuesday 10/18

  • 10:00 AM Housing Market Index will be released. Expectations are for the number to be 44, down from 46 the prior month. The housing market index has consistently been lower than expectations, including September’s 46, which was an 8-year low. N.Y. Fed 5-year inflation expectations for one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations had posted steep declines in August, from 6.2 percent and 3.2 percent in July to 5.7 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. Investors will be watching to see if the declining expectations continue. The housing market index is a monthly composite that tracks home builder assessments of present and future sales as well as buyer traffic. The index is a weighted average of separate diffusion indexes: present sales of new homes, sales of new homes expected in the next six months, and traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.

  • 9:45 AM Industrial Production has three components that could impact thoughts on the economic trend. Industrial Production as a whole is expected to have risen 0.1% versus down -0.2% in the prior period. Manufacturing output is expected to have risen by 0.2%, and Capacity Utilization is expected to be unchanged at 80%.

Industrial production and capacity utilization indicate not only trends in the manufacturing sector but also whether resource utilization is strained enough to forebode inflation. Also, industrial production is an important measure of current output for the economy and helps to define turning points in the business cycle (start of recession and start of recovery).

  • Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL) with Noble Capital Markets in NYC in-person roadshow for investors. Interested parties can find out more at this link.

Wednesday 10/19

  • 7:00 AM Mortgage Applications. The composite index is expected to show a decline of -2.0% for the month. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.
  • 8:30 AM Housing Starts and Permits. The consensus for starts is 1.475 million (annualized), and Permits are expected to come in at 1.550 million (annualized). Housing starts to measure the initial construction of single-family and multi-family units on a monthly basis. Data on permits provide indications of future construction. A housing start is registered at the start of the construction of a new building intended primarily as a residential building.
  • 2:00 PM, the Beige Book will be released. This report is produced roughly two weeks before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. In it, each of the 12 Fed districts compiles anecdotal evidence on economic conditions from their districts. It is widely used in discussions at the FOMC monetary policy meetings where rate decisions are made.
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products, this has been a big focus for investors because of its implications for prices.

Thursday 10/20

  • 8:30 AM Jobless Claims for the week ending 10/15. Claims are expected to be 235 thousand. Jobless claims allow a weekly look at the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more they have jobs, and that sheds light for investors on the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing.
  • 8:30 AM Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. This index has been bouncing back and forth between contraction and expansion. It’s the former that’s expected for October, where the consensus is minus 5.0.
  • 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales. The consensus is for sales to have been 4.695 million (annualized). The previous number was 4.8 million. The pace has declined every month since January.
  • 10:00 AM Leading Indicators. The consensus is for a decline of -0.3%. The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components, including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims. It attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.
  • Engine Gaming Media (GAME) with Noble Capital Markets in St. Louis in person roadshow for investors. Interested parties can find out more at this link.
  • 10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Report. This is a weekly report and has gotten much more attention since the war in Ukraine and gas pipeline issues that impact much of Europe. The abundance or lack of energy impacts prices not just for the consumer, but also manufacturers. This report has the ability to move markets as a result.
  • 4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet. The Fed’s balance sheet is a weekly report presenting a consolidated balance sheet for all 12 Reserve Banks that lists factors supplying reserves into the banking system and factors absorbing reserves from the system. This report will allow investors to see how far along the Federal Reserve has gotten on its quantitative tightening program.

Friday 10/21

  • 1:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count. The expectation is for 985 in North America and 769 in the U.S. It’s all about potential supply; the count tracks weekly changes in the number of active operating oil & gas rigs. Rigs that are not active are not counted.

What Else

This week the Biden administration has plans to take new steps to lower gasoline prices. This includes potentially releasing more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and imposing limits on exports of energy products. The initiative comes a week after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed to cut oil production by up to 2 million barrels per day.

Corporate earnings season starts to heat up with widely watched names that can set the market tone. Those to watch out for include: Monday – Bank of America, Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, IBM, Netflix, United Airlines, American Airlines, Procter & Gamble, and Tesla. Investors can also expect a key GDP release from China and a vital inflation reading from the U.K.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-for-the-markets-next-week-4584772

https://www.econoday.com/

The Week Ahead – FOMC Minutes and CPI Late Week

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Potential for a Change in Sentiment if Suprised by this Week’s FOMC Minutes, Jobs, and Inflation

When the world’s trading partners move interest rates in concert with each other, their actions are much smoother, this is because currency flows, which influence exchange rates, are less inclined to reprice dramatically. The U.S. has been comparatively aggressive in raising rates. This is part of why the Bank of England (BOE) shoring up its bond market, and the Japanese hawkish hesitancy has created disruptions and a historically strong U.S. dollar.

This week begins with Columbus Day; the bond markets are closed, and so are the banks. Stock market participants shouldn’t expect guidance from interest rate moves related to bond trading. The futures market will be active; moves from Interest rate futures from tickers such as ZB=F can be helpful while bonds are silent.  

Monday 10/10

  • 1:30 PM ET Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard discusses restoring price stability at the National Association of Business Economics (NABE). Attend via Zoom.
  • Columbus Day, the potential for thin trading and big price swings.

Tuesday 10/11

  • NY Fed 5-year inflation expectations for one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations had posted steep declines in August, from 6.2 percent and 3.2 percent in July to 5.7 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. Investors will be watching to see if the declining expectations continue.
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (NFIB), is a monthly survey that asks small businesses if they have plans to increase employment, plans to expand capital spending, increase inventories, expect economic improvement, expect higher retail sales, is now a good time to expand, current job openings, and earnings trends in their business. Health in small businesses can be an indicator of overall economic health and stock market strength. This report is released at 6 am last month, the index was 91.8, and the consensus is 91.5.
  • The Labor Department’s JOLTS has, in recent years, been referred to as the “Quits” report. The report tracks monthly changes in job openings and contains rates of hiring and quitting. The word JOLTS stands for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

Wednesday 10/12

  • The Producer Price Index (PPI) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is an inflation gauge that measures the average change over time in the prices received by U.S. producers of goods and services. The prices are typically considered input costs for final products and can impact CPI, it may also impact company costs of production and, therefore, profits. The trend has been lower, YOY PPI has been running at 8,7%, the consensus is for 8.4%.
  • The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) creates a statistic from several mortgage loan indexes. The Mortgage Applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. It’s considered a leading indicator and is especially important for single-family home sales and housing construction. Both are considered foundational in a strong economy. L
  • ast week, the Purchase Index was -12.6%.
  • 10 Year Treasury Note Auction is held in the middle of each month and settles on or around the 15th (depending on weekends). The yield is a benchmark for 30-year mortgages and has recently been noted by investment markets because it has been trading at a yield lower than shorter maturities; this inversion of the yield curve has some market players suggesting a recession is expected in the future. Any surprises at the auction will reverberate through the stock market.
  • FOMC minutes (September meeting) – We’d all love to be a fly on the wall at the Fed’s meetings. The minutes detail the issues debated and the consensus among policymakers. This, of course, has ramifications if the contents of the minutes demonstrate an above-average hawkish or dovish change in tone. The Federal Open Market Committee issues minutes of its latest meeting three weeks after the meeting.

Thursday 10/13

  • US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the inflation indicator most widely broadcast. With inflation being a primary focus, this will be the big number coming out this week. The number represents a basket of goods considered typical for an urban consumer and is taken as the change in the cost of that basket of goods. A percentage is derived from the change. CPI is also reported with food and energy removed as it is considered that other non-economic factors influence these prices. The August report indicated CPI rose 0.6% for the month and 8.3% YOY. Expectations are for a slowing to 0.4% for September and a YOY rate of 8.1%.
  • U.S. Jobless Claims, which represent the prior weeks of employment are expected to have increased to 225,000 from 219,000. From jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight or how loose the job market is. If wage inflation takes hold, interest rates will likely rise, and bond and stock prices will fall.  Remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.

Friday 10/14

  • U.S. retail sales have been lackluster, neither rising nor falling. As we head toward Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales levels, the market will be taking more and more interest in how strong the consumer is. Expectations for September are a rise of 0.2 percent overall, down 0.1 percent when excluding vehicles and up 0.4 when also excluding gasoline. The number is released at 8:30 am.
  • Business inventories are expressed in dollar value held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The level of inventories in relation to sales is an important indicator of the near-term direction of production activity. Rising inventories can be an indication of business optimism that sales will be growing in the coming months. However, if unintended inventory accumulation occurs, then production will probably have to slow while those inventories. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase after only increasing 0.6% for August.
  • U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count tracks weekly changes in the number of active operating oil & gas rigs. Rigs that are not active are not counted. Components in the data are the United States and Canada, with a separate count for the Gulf of Mexico (which is a subset of the U.S. total). A significant increase or decrease could have ramifications on energy costs in North America. The rig count for the prior period in North America was 977, with 762 of those being from the U.S.

What Else

It is a light week for economic releases and Fed governor addresses, but late week could see a dramatic change in market sentiment as the Fed Minutes, CI, and even employment has the potential to impact thinking.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm

http://global-premium.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=global-premium

https://www.channelchek.com/news-channel/noble_on_the_road___noble_capital_markets_in_person_roadshow_series

What To Watch Out For October 3rd – October 7th, 2022

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com

Monitoring the Week Ahead – Week Ending October 8th

Today is the first trading week of the new quarter and the first in October. It’s the start of what many hope will be a market turnaround and a strong positive close to the year.

Taking the new month and new quarter one day at a time, below are events scheduled this week that could prove important to our Channelchek subscribers. US data and events will be heavy most days this week, opening with the ISM Manufacturing Survey Monday and ending with monthly Employment on Friday. A variety of Fed Governors will be talking on a number of critical subjects, those talks most likely to move markets are listed.

All times are Eastern Time.

Monday 10/3

  • Noble Capital Markets in Chicago, interview E.W. Scripps (attend live)
  • 9 am Raphael Bostick, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, President/CEO, Discusses technology and Disruption. Follow
  • US Construction Spending 10 am –  This reports the dollar value of new construction activity on residential, non-residential, and public projects. Construction spending fell 0.4 percent in July, marking the sixth straight lower-than-expected result. August’s consensus is a 0.1 percent decline.
  • ISM Manufacturing Index 10 am –  The survey gathers information from managers about the general direction (tracked in volumes) of production, new orders, order backlogs, inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, and imports. It was 52.8 in each of the last two reports, this shows the ISM manufacturing index has stabilized at a level of modest growth. September’s consensus is 52.4.
  • TD Ameritrade’s Investor Movement Index 12:30 – The Investor Movement Index, (IMX), is a behavior-based index created by TD Ameritrade designed to shed insight into Main Street sentiment. The IMX strives to measure what investors are actually doing and how they are positioned in the markets. The index is a snapshot, but when compared to previous periods may be helpful to uncover trends or changes in focus.

Tuesday 10/4

  • Noble Capital Markets in Chicago, interview E.W. Scripps in Milwaukee (attend live)
  • Factory orders are a leading indicator. It is the dollar amount of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. Factory orders are seen gaining 0.2 percent in August, which would follow a 1.0 percent decline in July. Durable goods orders, which have already been released and are one of two major components of this report, fell 0.2 percent in the month.
  • The Labor Department’s JOLTS has in recent years been referred to as the “Quits” report. The report tracks monthly changes in job openings and contains rates on hiring and quitting. The word JOLTS stands for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

Wednesday 10/4

  • OPEC meeting. OPEC meetings and the announcements post meeting with changes to production quotas, raising or lowering the global supply of crude oil can have a dramatic impact on energy prices, which currently have been feeding into inflation and business costs. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and associate members meet monthly.
  • U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 7 am. This is a gauge of both the demand for housing and economic momentum. Families and individuals are usually feeling comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. The changes in housing provide data that has a significant multiplier effect acting on the economy as other purchases follow. The indicated change in economic activity impacts many industries and investment markets.
  • U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services at 8:30. Trade numbers are available by export, import, and trade balance for six principal end-use commodity categories. The numbers will be for August and are expected to show a deficit of $68.0 billion for total goods and services trade which would compare with a $70.6 billion deficit in July. Advance data on the goods side of August’s report showed a nearly $3 billion narrowing in the deficit.
  • The U.S. PMI Composite (Final) or Purchasing Managers Index released at 9:45 am is based on a monthly survey collected from over 400 U.S. companies. The companies provide a leading indicator of what is occurring in the private sector economy.  At 49.2, the first indicator for September showed improvement from August’s 43.7. No change at 49.2 is the expectation for the final.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Petroleum report 10:30 am. This report provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products. The report is comprehensive and viewed by people in the industry at all levels.

Thursday 10/6

  • The Challenger Job-Cut Report at 7:30 am provides insight into where layoffs are occurring. There is industry and state-level detail, which makes it more insightful than a weekly jobless claims reports.
  • The Jobless Claims report is released each Thursday at 8:30. Jobless claims for the October 1 week are expected to come in at 203,000 versus 193,000 in the prior week, which was much lower than expected.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas report 10:30 am. This report provides weekly information on natural gas inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. With winter approaching in the northern hemisphere, unresolved natural gas distribution issues in Europe have heightened the attention paid to this report.

Friday 10/7

  • U.S. Employment situation at 8:30 am is possibly the most closely followed of all economic indicators. It establishes the official unemployment rate. the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey, which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines, and the household survey, which interviews 60,000 households. August was the fifth straight month, and in seven of the last eight, payroll growth exceeded expectations. One widely followed estimate is that nonfarm payrolls rose 250,000 in September.
  • U.S. Wholesale Inventories at 10 am. Wholesale trade measures the dollar value of sales made and inventories held by merchant wholesalers. It is a component of business sales and inventories
  • Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, 1 pm address at Peterson Institute for International Economics. Watch
  • U.S. Consumer Credit, released at 3 pm is expected to show an increase to $25.0 billion in August versus a $23.8 billion increase in July.

What Else

The U.S. markets have been taking good news as bad and bad news as good when it relates to the economy. The reasons are fear that if the economy shows too much strength, the Fed will continue its aggressive fight to tame it, possibly overshooting.

A quarterly report Metal & Mining Q3 was released Monday by Noble Capital Markets. Check back with Channelchek this week for other quarter-end industry reports, including energy expected on Tuesday.

When investing and trading, always be aware of your surroundings and what may be lurking in the next influential speech, event, or report. Wishing you all a profitable week.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm

https://www.channelchek.com/news-channel/noble_on_the_road___noble_capital_markets_in_person_roadshow_series

http://global-premium.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=global-premium

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar