Tag: Weekly

The Market Hurdles Before the Holiday

The FOMC minutes on Wednesday detailing the debate at the Federal Reserve’s May 2-3 meeting could be an eye-opener for investors. Expectations for many had been that the Fed would pause tightening. The Fed has publicly insisted that the interest rate moves are data dependent and there isn’t a scheduled plan extending through the rest of the year. If the minutes suggest pausing, markets shouldn’t react severely, if instead, the minutes suggest the Fed is panicking at the pace of the economy and persistence of inflation, the stock market may itself pause the recent bullish moves. Inflation data in the form of the PCE report Friday is not expected to show much improvement.

Friday is one of the bigger days for economic reports as Consumer Sentiment is released in the morning. On Friday afternoon, SIFMA recommends an early close before the Memorial Day weekend.

Monday 5/22

• 8:30 AM ET, James Bullard will be speaking. Bullard is the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Bullard is an FOMC member and has been very vocal in his support for higher interest rates.
• 10:50 AM ET, Thoms Barkin will be speaking. Barkin is the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. He is a member of the FOMC Committee.
• 11:05 AM ET, Mary Daly will be speaking. Daly is the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. She is a member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Tuesday 5/23

• 9:00 AM ET, Lorie Logan, CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas will be speaking. She represents her district on the FOMC.
• 9:45 AM ET, The Purchasing Managers Report (PMI) has been signaling higher output for the last three releases. A number above 50 indicates an increase; the consensus for May is 52.6 versus April’s 55.9.
• 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales, after a decent jump to a 683,000 annualized rate in March, new home sales in April are expected to have declined to 670,000.
• 1:00 PM ET, Money Supply numbers will be released. M2 is expected to have declined by 257.3 billion to a level of $20,818 billion.

Wednesday 5/24

• 10:30 AM ET, The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be providing its scheduled weekly information on petr
• oleum inventories, whether produced in the US or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.
• 2:00 PM ET, The Minutes of the FOMC meeting held on May2-3 will be released. The minutes detail the issues, discussions, and positions among policymakers; the Federal Open Market Committee issues minutes of its latest meeting three weeks after the meeting.

Thursday 5/25

• 8:30 AM ET, Jobless claims for the week May 20, are expected to rise 6,000 to 248,000 following a 22,000 swing lower to 242,000 in the prior week.
• 8:30 AM ET, Corporate Profits are pulled from the national income and product accounts (NIPA) and are presented in different forms.
• 10:00 AM ET, Pending Home Sales data from April are expected to have risen 1.1%.
• 10:30 AM ET, Susan Collins is the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

Friday 5/26

• 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders are expected to have fallen 1.1% in April following March’s 3.2% rise. Ex-transportation orders are seen down 0.1 percent.

• 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays. Personal Income is expected to have increased 0.4% in April with consumption expenditures also expected to increase 0.4%. These would compare with March’s 0.3 percent for income and no change for consumption.

• 8:30 AM ET, Retail Inventories are expected to have risen by .73%.

• 8:30 AM ET, Wholesale Inventories are expected to have been flat in April risen by.

• 8:30 AM ET, International Trade numbers are expected to show the US goods deficit is expected to widen marginally to $85.6 billion in May after narrowing by $6.5 billion in April to $85.5 billion.

• 10:00 AM ET, Consumer Sentiment is expected to end May at 58.0, nearly 6 points below April but shigher by .30% from May’s mid-month 57.7 flash.International Trade numbers are expected to show the US goods deficit is expected to widen marginally to $85.6 billion in May after narrowing by $6.5 billion in April to $85.5 billion.

• 2:00 PM ET, SIFMA Recommends an Early Market Close on May 26  (2PM) and a Full Market Close on May 29 in the US in Observance of the Memorial Day Holiday. 

What Else

Investment roadshows on company’s you own or have an interest in can lead to insights you’d never get anyplace else.

A stock that has the distinction of being Michael Burry’s longest held position (a long position) is a company named GEO Group (GEO).

On May 23^rd and May 24^th you may be able to attend a roadshow in South Florida presented by Senior Management of Geo Group.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources:

https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us

What Else

Investment roadshows on company’s you own or have an interest in can lead to insights you’d never get anyplace else.

A stock that has the distinction of being Michael Burry’s longest held position (a long position) is a company named GEO Group (GEO).

On May 23^rd and May 24^th you may be able to attend a roadshow in South Florida presented by Senior Management of Geo Group.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources:

https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us

The Market Will Experience a Barrage of Appearances by Fed Officials

This will be another week of various regional Fed Presidents speaking and setting expectations of potential adjustments to monetary policy; this includes Jerome Powell and Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke. Retail and consumer health could come into sharper focus during the week as major retailers report earnings and April retail sales are reported early in the week. The initial results for the Russell Reconstitution of its main indexes will be released after the close of trading on Friday. Also, late week, Fed Chair Jay Powell will make an appearance on a panel with Ben Bernanke.

Monday 5/15

• 8:30 AM ET, The Empire State Manufacturing Index for May is expected to fall back to negative territory at minus 2.0 after April’s 35-point surge into positive ground at 10.8. This monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State is seldom market moving, but combined with other reports helps draw a picture of economic health within the region and more broadly.
• 8:45 AM ET, Ralph Bostic, the CEO of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, will be speaking.
• 9:15 AM ET, Neel Nashkari, the President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, will be speaking.
• 12:30 PM ET, Thomas Barkin, the President of the Richmond Federal Reserve, will be speaking.

Tuesday 5/16

• 8:15 AM ET, Loretta Mester, CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, will be speaking.
• 8:30 AM ET, April Retail Sales are expected to rise 0.7 percent versus March’s 1.0 percent decline that, much of the earlier decline was led by declines in car sales and gasoline.
• 8:55 AM ET, Raphael Bostic will be speaking. Bostic is the CEO of the Atlanta Fed.

• 9:15 AM ET, Industrial Production is expected to be unchanged in April after March’s 0.4 percent increase that was boosted by utilities output. Manufacturing output is seen as up 0.1 percent after falling 0.5 percent in March.
• 10:00 AM ET, Business Inventories in March are expected to remain unchanged following a 0.2 percent build in February.
• 10:00 AM ET, the Housing Market Index has not been experiencing the steep declines witnessed last year. After April’s previously reported 1-point gain to 45, May’s consensus is no change at 45.
• 12:15 PM ET, John Williams, the President of the New York Federal Reserve, will be speaking.
• 3:15 PM ET, Lorrie Logan is the President of the Federal Reserve Dallas, she will be speaking.
• 7:00 PM ET, Raphael Bostic, will be speaking. Bostic is the CEO of the Atlanta Fed.

Wednesday 5/17

• 7:30 AM ET, Mortgage Applications, compiled by the Mortgage Bankers’ Association will be released. compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.
• 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts and Permits during  March edged lower to a 1.420 million annualized rate; April is expected to slip further to 1.405 million. Permits, at 1.413 million in March and, though lower than expected, very near the starts rate, is expected to rise to 1.430 million.
• 10:30 AM ET, The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.

Thursday 5/18

• 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims Jobless claims for weekly period ended May 13 are expected to fall back to 255,000 after rising a steep 22,000 to 264,000 in the prior week.
• 10:00 AM ET, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index has been in contraction the last nine reports and very deeply so in April at minus 31.3. May’s contraction is seen at minus 20.0.
• 9:05 AM ET, Lorrie Logan, President of the Dallas Fed is scheduled to speak.
• 10:00 AM, Ecommerce Retail Sales, are sales of goods and services where an order is placed by the buyer or where price and terms of sale are negotiated over the Internet, an extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network, or other online system.
• 10:00 AM, The Index of Leading Economic indicators, had plunged 1.2 percent in March, it is expected to fall a further 0.6 percent in April. This index has been in sharp decline and has long been signaling a pending recession.
• 10:30 AM, The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on natural gas stocks in underground storage for the U.S. and five regions of the country. The level of inventories helps determine prices for natural gas products.

Friday 5/19

• 8:30 PM ET, Import/Export Prices. Import Prices, an inflation harbinger is expected to rise 0.3 percent for April, this would end nine straight declines. Export prices are expected to rise 0.2 percent.
• 8:45 AM, John Williams, the President of the New York Federal Reserve, will be speaking.
• 10:00 PM ET, Consumer Sentiment looking at the first indication for May, which in April fell 1.5 points to 63.5, is expected to fall another half point to 63.0.
• 10:00 AM ET, Quarterly Services is expected is focuses on information and technology-related service industries. These include information; professional, scientific and technical services; administrative & support services; and waste management and remediation services. These sectors correspond to three NAICS sectors (51, 54, and 56). The Quarterly Services Survey produces estimates of total operating revenue and the percentage of revenue by class of customer.
• 11:00 AM, ET, Fed Chair Powell, is joined on a panel titled “Perspectives on Monetary Policy” by former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke.
• 4:00 PM ET, The FTSE Russell Index reports the first list of stocks leading to the Russell’s Reconstitution in 2023.

What Else

Investment roadshows are like getting a front-row seat to information direct from management’s mouth. The most useful investor information often comes from the unplanned responses to questions during the roadshow – either asked by you, or other interested investors.

Noble Capital Markets has an expanding and interesting calendar of roadshows during the week and month. Some are in cities that are paid less attention to than the major financial centers. This week CoCrystal (COCP) will be presenting at roadshows in Miami, and Boca Raton, FL. For more details, and a complete list of roadshows and cities, Click here.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm

https://www.econoday.com/

https://www.channelchek.com/news-channel/noble_on_the_road___noble_capital_markets_in_person_roadshow_series

The FOMC Meeting is the Big Story this Week, But First Republic Will Steal Headlines

In a week full of economic releases, the markets will be most obsessed with two events.

First, the FOMC meeting on May 2-3 is expected to result in the Fed raising the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points. Market watchers will be looking for signs the FOMC will pause. This could be conveyed in the wording of the statement from the Fed at 2pm on May 3, or during the press conference, Fed Chair Powell is expected to hold at 2:30 on the same day.

Second, inflation information will also keep some investors on edge. A few vocal Fed governors continue to signal that they believe that wage growth and other non-housing inflation warrants continued vigilance. This makes the April Employment Report of particular concern. It is not expected to change the story about a strong labor market. There may be a few more signs of the imbalances in labor supply and demand resolving, but many businesses are still hiring, and relatively few are laying off workers.

Monday 5/1

•             9:45 AM ET, Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for April is expected to come in at 50.4, unchanged from the mid-month flash to indicate marginal economic expansion relative to March.

 •            10:00 AM, The ISM Manufacturing Index has been contracting during the last five months. April’s consensus is for slight growth of 46.8 versus March’s 46.3.

Tuesday 5/2

•             9:00 AM ET, The monetary policy-setting arm of the Federal Reserve will begin a two-day meeting that will end with an announcement of any adjustments to policy.

•             10:00 AM ET, Construction Spending for March is expected to have increased at a barely detectable .1% after falling .1% the previous month.

•             9:00 AM ET, Factory Orders is an important leading indicator of economic activity. The consensus forecast for March is a solid increase of 1.2%. This follows a decline the previous month of .7%.

Wednesday 5/3

•             10:00 AM ET, Institute for Supply Management (ISM) surveys non-manufacturing (or services) firms’ purchasing and supply executives. The services report measures business activity for the overall economy; above 50 indicates growth, while below 50 indicates contraction. The number for April is expected to be above 50 at 52%.

•             2:00 PM, the Fed statement following the FOMC meeting will be released.

•             2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jay Powell will answer questions on economic policy in a post FOMC meeting press conference.  

Thursday 5/4

•             8:30 AM ET, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 29 is expected to be higher at 240,000 than the prior week, where it stood at 230,000 individuals claiming unemployment.

Friday 5/5

•             8:30 PM ET, the U.S. Employment Report is chocked full of data that could cause a late-week shift in inflation expectations. The survey provides estimates for nonfarm payrolls, average weekly hours worked, and average hourly and weekly earnings. For April compared to March the economy is expected to have added 180,000 new jobs versus 236,000have an unemployment rate of 3.6% versus 3.5%, hourly wages are forecast to have a second month of increases averaging .3%, and an average year-over-year hourly wage increase equalling 4.2%.

What Else

There is more concern being created in the banking sector as the FDIC is said to be preparing to take First Republic Bank into receivership until they find a suitor. The bidding process among large banks is likely to be headline news before and after.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us

A New Quarter Begins Following Market Strength

Welcome to a holiday-shortened trading week. Yes the U.S. stock market will be closed on Friday. In terms of economic numbers and reports it should be very quiet as we begin the second quarter of 2023. These “quiet” weeks, when the market is not sure where to focus, have proven themselves to be volatile surprises as focus is on unexpected events instead. Last week the major indices resumed its march higher. All closed in the green for the week. Market participants are looking for follow-through to confirm whether we’ve entered a new bull market.

Monday 4/03

• 9:45 AM ET, The final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March is expected to come in at 49.3. This would be unchanged from the mid-month flash to indicate a slight economic contraction.
• 10:00 AM ET, Construction Spending is expected to have experienced a flat month for February as the forecast is expected to show unchanged following January’s 0.1% decline.
• 10:00 AM ET, The ISM manufacturing index has been below 50, indicating a contraction for the last four months. March’s consensus estimate is 47.5 versus February’s 47.7.

Tuesday 4/04

• 10:00 AM ET, Factory Orders, a leading indicator, are expected to fall 0.4 percent in February versus January’s 1.6 percent decline. Durable goods orders for February, which have already been released and are one of two major components of this report.
• 10:00 AM ET, JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) have been strong at 10.82 million in January. Forecasters see February openings falling to a still high 10.4 million.
• 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for February are expected to rise to a 4.17 million annualized rate after January’s lower-than-expected 4.0 million rate.

Wednesday 4/05

• 10:00 AM ET, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is expected to slow after a 55.1 read in February, to a still positive (above 50) 54.4 level in March.

Thursday 4/06

• 7:30 AM ET, The Challenger Job Cuts Report counts and categorizes announcements of corporate layoffs based on mass layoff data from state Departments of Labor. The prior reading was 77,770.
• 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims for the week ended April 1 week are expected to come in at 201,000 versus 198,000 in the prior week. 
• 10:00 AM ET, James Bullard, the St. Louis Fed President will be making public comments.

Friday 4/07

• There are many stories of a market crash on Good Friday, are they true? Learn why the stock market is closed on the Friday before traditional Easter. Here is the link for why the markets are closed.

*The bond markets and the rest of the banking system follow a different schedule and are open.

• 8:30 AM ET, Employment, A 240,000 rise is expected for nonfarm payroll growth in March. This compares to 311,000 in February. Average hourly earnings in March are expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month for a year-over-year rate of 4.3 percent; these would compare with 0.2 and 4.6 percent in February. March’s unemployment rate is expected to hold unchanged at 3.6 percent.
• 2:00 PM ET, The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Industry Association (SIFMA) is recommending an early close for those operating under their purview. The U.S. stock market is closed.

What Else

OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, is due to hold a virtual meeting of its ministerial monitoring panel, which includes Russia and Saudi Arabia, on Monday. OPEC+ is likely to cut oil output at a meeting scheduled for Monday. Oil has recovered to above $80 a barrel for Brent crude after falling to near $70 on March 20.

Media companies are attracting more interest. Investors in Florida this week with an interest in this sector are welcome to see if there is a seat available to them at one of three different roadshow events with Beasley Broadcast Group. Information is available at this link.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://us.econoday.com/

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65157555

Much of the Noise this Week Could Be from Outside of US Markets?

The U.S. does not get a great deal of economic data to react to this week. But that usually means the focus shifts, and market participants grasp onto signs they may otherwise ignore. There are many inflation reports during the week. They are from outside of the U.S. economy until Friday morning. Global inflation, not just trading partners could impact other nations. This is because if one region raises its benchmark interest rate, others either follow or risk weakening its own native currency.

March German inflation will come late in the week, starting with Germany’s CPI on Thursday. This will be followed by France’s CPI on Friday, then the full Eurozone later Friday. February PCE data from the U.S. will also be posted on Friday. Australia will be posting its February CPI on Wednesday. Most reports are expected to show declines, with the reservation that much of the reduced increases are derived from lower fuel costs. This would suggest that economic forces raising prices are still largely at work.

Monday 3/27

•             No pertinent Economic numbers are to be released

Tuesday 3/28

•             10:00 AM ET, Consumer Confidence, after two months of market surprising declines, the consumer confidence index is not expected to perk up in March, the consensus is instead a further decline in confidence to a consensus 101.0 versus February’s 102.9.

•             10:00 AM ET, Michael Barr, the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve will give Testimony before the Michael Barr, the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve will give Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. Watch here.

•             1:00 PM ET, Money Supply, since some banks have experienced difficulties with lower deposits, is becoming closely watch report once more. The prior month, money supply read 30.9 billion. The measure has two main components, M1 and M2. M1 is included in M2. M1, the more narrowly defined measure, consists of the most liquid forms of money, namely currency and checkable deposits. The non-M1 components of M2 are primarily household holdings of savings deposits, small time deposits, and retail money market mutual funds.

Wednesday 3/29

•             10:00 AM ET, Michael Barr will testify before the U.S. House Financial Services CommitteeThe Energy Information Administration (EIA) Petroleum Status Report,  provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.

•             10:00 AM ET, Pending Home Sales during February are expected to rise 1.0 percent on top of January’s 8.1 percent elevation.

Thursday 3/30

•             8:30 AM ET, GDP’s third estimate for 4Q 2022 is expected to remain at 2.7 percent growth in the quarter’s second estimate. Personal consumption expenditures, at 1.4 percent growth in the second estimate, is also expected to remain unchanged.

•             4:30 PM ET, The Fed’s Balance Sheet has received more attention since the beginning of quantitative tightening (Q.T.). The last report  should an increase as a result of the new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP).

Friday 3/31

•             8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays is expected to have risen 0.3 percent in February with consumption expenditures expected to have increased 0.2 percent. In January there was a rise of 0.6 percent for income and 1.8 percent surge for consumption. Inflation readings for February are expected at monthly increases of 0.4 percent both overall and for the core (versus 0.6 percent increases for both in January) for annual rates of 5.1 and 4.7 percent (versus January’s respective rates of 5.4 and 4.7 percent).

•             10:00 AM ET, Consumer Sentiment in late March is expected to be unchanged from the mid-month flash of 63.4.

What Else

We congratulate all the NCAA basketball teams that made the final four teams competing in the NCAA championships. This includes the Florida Atlantic University basketball team that has made the final four for the first time. While we wish all teams well, the large investor conference sponsored by Channelchek, NobleCon19, will be held at the elaborate College of Business Executive Education at FAU. So this adds to all of our interest at Channelchek. These final March Madness games start on Saturday, April 1^st, and while we officially don’t have a consensus read on the final outcome, we hope for excellent play from all. Learn more about the NobleCon19 conference on the FAU campus by clicking here.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230319a.htm

https://us.econoday.com/articles.aspx?cust=us&year=2023&lid=0

What Will the First Week of Spring 2023 Bring Investors?

The week started out with Swiss authorities having persuaded UBS Group AG (UBSG.S) on Sunday to buy Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN.S). UBS will pay 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.23 billion) for 167-year-old Credit Suisse and assume up to $5.4 billion in losses in a deal backed by a massive Swiss guarantee. It is expected to close on the deal this year.

The main focus of investors this week is still expected to be the two-day FOMC meeting and rate decision on Wednesday. While the need to dampen inflation hasn’t changed, weakness in the banking system, in part brought on by weaker asset prices which occurs naturally with higher rates, may cause the Fed to adjust its approach.

Monday 3/20

• No Economic numbers are to be released
• 5:24 PM ET, Spring 2023 begins.

Tuesday 3/21

• 9:00 AM ET, The first day of a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins.
• 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for February are expected to rise to a 4.17 million annualized rate after January’s lower-than-expected 4.0 million rate.isting home sales in

Wednesday 3/22

• 10:30 AM ET, The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Petroleum Status Report,  provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.
• 2:00 PM ET, FOMC statement released. It has been a year since the Fed began its tightening post FOMC meetings and is expected to raise rates again. However, the statement after the meeting should yield clues as to the impact, if any, weakness in banks has on the path forward for the Fed.
• 2:30 PM ET, Federal Reserve Chair J. Powell will hold a press conference to discuss the Fed’s decision.

Thursday 3/23

• 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims Jobless for the week of March 18 are expected to come in at 195,000 versus 192,000 in the prior week.
• 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales are expected to fall to 645,000 after surging to a 670,000 annualized rate in January.
• 4:30 PM ET, The Federal Reserves Balance Sheet now includes the new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) announced last Sunday.

Friday 3/24

• 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders are expected to post a 1.5% rise in February boosted by an easy comparison against January’s 4.5% decline which was impacted by lower aircraft orders.
• 9:30 AM ET, The ST. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard is expected to give a public address. Bullard has been an outspoken hawk among Fed regional Presidents.

What Else

The markets are focused on the Fed announcement Wednesday, and holding its collective breath to see if there will be more bank closures and forced sales, or if there are only a few banks impacted by weak balance sheets.

On Tuesday there will be a live online event that is part of the Take Away series by Noble Capital Markets. This event will feature select mining companies from the PDAC mining conference held earlier this month. Learn more about the no cost event here.

For institutional or individual investors in New York or South Florida, there may be the opportunity to listen to the management of some interesting companies (no cost). Entravision (EVC) will be presenting in New York on March 23, and management of Maple Gold Mines (MGMLF) is making themselves available to meet investors on March 25 in Miami. Get more information here on attending. 

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230319a.htm

https://us.econoday.com/articles.aspx?cust=us&year=2023&lid=0

Reasons Investors Should Beware the Ides of March

The FDIC, no doubt, was working overtime this weekend trying to find a suitor for Silicon Valley Bank. The bank’s demise makes it the second-largest bank in US history to have not managed its risks well enough to survive. Investors, depositors, and other interested parties have been awakened and are now checking their own likelihood of overexposure to banks. Some of this exposure could be through investments in companies that had uninsured deposits at SVB.

One risk that may be impacting investors’ psyche now is recollections of 2008 and viewing last Friday’s bank closure as the canary (or Lehman Bros.) in the coal mine. Whether this is a singular incident or just the beginning of escalating problems remains to be seen. But investors tend to always look back on the most recent similar event then think “here we go again.” Important economic numbers aside, such as CPI on Tuesday, or Residential Construction on Thursday, the loudest news will be centered on SVB and whether the Fed will now pivot.

The Fed and regional Presidents have been in a blackout period since Saturday; this is normal leading up to an FOMC meeting (March 21-22). However, this blackout period has been partially breached with a joint statement between Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen, who incidentally was his predecessor. Keep an eye on Channelchek news postings for more information on this statement.   

Monday 3/13

• No Economic numbers are to be released

Tuesday 3/14

• 6:00 AM ET, The Small Business Optimism index has been below the historical average of 98 for 13 months in a row. The small business optimism index comes a monthly survey that is by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). The index is a composite of 10 seasonally adjusted components based on the following questions: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect the economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.
• 8:30 AM ET, Consumer Price Index (CPI), investors now lay awake waiting for inflation reports. For February, core prices are expected to hold steady at an elevated 0.4 percent monthly gain, with overall prices also expected to rise 0.4 percent after January’s 0.5 percent rise. Annual rates, which in January were 6.4 percent overall and 5.6 percent for the core, are expected at 6.0 and 5.5 percent.

Wednesday 3/15

• 8:30 AM ET, Producer Price Index (PPI), this measure of wholesale inflation ought to be the second most market-impacting number of the week. After rising a sharper-than-expected 0.7 percent in January, producer prices in February are expected to slow to a monthly 0.3 percent. The annual rate in February is seen at 5.4 percent versus January’s 6.0 percent. February’s ex-food ex-energy rate is seen at 0.4 percent on the month and 5.2 percent on the year versus January’s 0.5 and 5.4 percent, both of which were also sharper than expected.
• 10:00 AM ET, The Housing Market Index jumped 4 points in January and another 7 points in February but further improvement, given a sharp rise in mortgage rates, is not expected for March where the consensus is a 1 point decline to 41.
• 10:00 AM ET, Business Inventories in January are expected to remain unchanged following 0.3 percent builds in both December and November. Rising inventories can be an indication of business optimism that sales will be growing in the coming months. By looking at the ratio of inventories to sales, investors can see whether production demands will expand or contract in the near future. On the other hand, if unintended inventory accumulation occurs then production will probably need to slow while current inventories are worked down. This is why business inventory data is a forward indicator.
• 10:00 AM ET, Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations is was previously 2.9%. The percentage provides a monthly measure of year-ahead inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty from the perspective of firms. John Williams the President of the New York Fed will be speaking.

Thursday 3/16

• 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts in February is expected to come in flat at 1.315 million. Permits that were 1.339 million in January, are also seen flat at 1.340 million.
• 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims for the March 11 week are expected to come in at 205,000 versus 211,000 in the prior week.

Friday 3/17

• 10:00 AM ET, Consumer Sentiment is expected to repeat at a depressed 67.0.  
• 10:00 AM ET, the Index Leading Economic Indicators is expected to fall a further 0.2 percent in February. This index has been in severe decline though contraction did slow in January to minus 0.3 percent. It seldom moves markets as most of the components that make it up are already known.

What Else

The clock change ought to cause some traders to be more tired than normal. However, all will be looking to see the FDIC’s plans for SVB.

The markets have been a stock pickers market since January 2022. The consensus is that the stock indices will be weak after a strong January and bonds, according to the Fed itself, face strong monetary policy headwinds. Yet, inflation is high and therefore so are the detrimental erosive effects of price increases. So remaining in cash is like accepting a buying power loss.

For institutional or individual investors in New York or South Florida, there may be the opportunity to listen to the management of some interesting companies (no cost). The company that Michael Burry recently owned, GEO Group ($GEO) will be holding a luncheon roadshow in NYC on March 14. This is an interesting company with political policy headwinds and extreme historical positives. Get more information here on attending.  Another interesting opportunity for investors to meet and question management of a company that doesn’t necessarily wilt with economic weakness is the breakfast (Boca Raton, FL) or lunch (Miami, FL) meetings with 1(800) FLOWERS ($FLWS). Register to see if there are still open seats here.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Powell’s Testimony, then Beige Book Ought to Give More Information  

While this will be a quiet week for economic data, and earnings season is now past its peak, the probabilities are high that it will be a week of dramatic volatility. The reason is that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will spend two days answering questions from elected officials that are members of Congress. There are typically a lot of pointed questions from members of the House and Senate as well as grandstanding politicians that want their constituents to see them fighting. In 2023’s case, the Fed intentionally weakens the US economy. Links to watch the live broadcasts of both the Senate and the House Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress are provided below.

Monday 3/6

• 10:00 AM ET, Factory orders are expected to have fallen 1.8 percent in January versus December’s 1.8 percent rise. Evidence of this turnaround can be seen in Durable Goods Orders for January, which had already been released and is one of two major components of this report. Durable Goods fell 4.5 percent in the month.

Tuesday 3/7

• 10:00 AM ET, Day one of Fed Chair Jerome Poll’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress will be with the US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. A link to stream the intense exchange that usually occurs can be found here.
• 3:00 PM ET, Consumer Credit is expected to increase $26.4 billion in January versus a smaller-than-expected increase of $11.6 billion in December. This report has a long lag from the measuring period, this makes it paid attention to less than other reports. However it is of increasing importance now that investors are wondering how long consumers can continue at a high rate despite tighter money.

Wednesday 3/8

• 8:30 PM ET, International Trade is expected to show a deficit of $69.0 billion during January for total goods and services trade. This would compare with a $67.4 billion deficit in December. A stronger dollar makes US goods less attractive overseas, and goods and services billed in a currency that is weakening in relationship to the US dollar become more attractive domestically when paid for in stronger dollars.  
• 10:00 AM ET, the Jolts or job openings report is expected to decline. It has been strong and rose to 11.0 million in December, however January’s expectation move down to 10.6 million.
• 2:00 PM ET, The Beige Book is a discussion of what is going on economically in each of the Federal Reserve districts. It is made available roughly two weeks before the FOMC meetings. This report on economic conditions is used for discussion at FOMC meetings which is back to beingthe single most influential events during the year impacting markets.
• 10:00 AM ET, Day two of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress will be with the U.S. House Financial Services Committee. A link to stream the intense exchange that usually occurs can be found here.

Thursday 3/9

• 8:30 AM ET, Jobless claims are a weekly release, but they always have the ability to impact investor thinking. For the week that ended March 4 week they are expected to come in at 196,000 versus 190,000 during the prior week.
• 4:30 PM ET, The Fed’s balance sheet is a weekly report presenting a balance sheet for all Reserve Bank districts that lists factors supplying reserves into the banking system and factors absorbing reserves from the system. The report is officially named Factors Affecting Reserve Balances. The Fed has been reducing its balance sheet by letting a specific amount of securities owned mature without being reinvested. Investong by the Fed adds money to the marketplace which is stimulative.

Friday 3/10

• 8:30 AM ET, the consensus for the Employment Sitation is a 215,000 rise for nonfarm payroll growth in February. This compares to 517,000 in January which. January was the ninth straight month and eleventh of the last twelve that payroll growth exceeded consensus of economists.

What Else

As far as what is scheduled, nothing can impact the market greater than the Federal Reserve Chair testifying before Congress both Tuesday and Wednesday. It would be surprising if they all like what he has to say. Stocks continue to be very sensitive; the US 10-year Treasury Note has been a key to the stock markets tone recently.  

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources:

https://www.econoday.com/

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm

Will the Markets Regain Traction this Week?

The markets are mostly up on the year, with stocks around 5.5% higher, bonds and the $ U.S. dollar near 1%, and bitcoin near 46.5% above the December 31^st level. Last week there was concern that the positive start most asset classes had at the beginning of the year is going to give a sizeable portion back, perhaps all and then some. This concern was heightened by a measure that shows that inflation’s decline may be tacking higher. There are no inflation reports scheduled in the upcoming week to worry about, and few Fed President addresses to be concerned with.

Monday 2/27

• 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders are expected to have dropped off by 4% in January. They had surged in December primarily because of aircraft orders. When transportation is removed to reveal the core Durable Goods reading, it is expected to be flat with no change from the prior month’s volume of orders.
• 10:00 AM ET, The National Association of Realtors is expected to report that Pending Home Sales rose 1% in January from the prior month. This level increase would be at a slower pace than the 2.5% increase in the prior period.
• 10:30 AM ET, The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey is expected to have declined for the ninth consecutive month. The consensus among economists is down 9.0 versus down 8.4.

Tuesday 2/28

• 8:30 AM ET, International Trade in Goods is expected to widen as economists expect exports to have fallen off. The expectation of a $91 billion trade deficit for the U.S. in January is $1.3 billion wider than December’s measurements.
• 9:45 PM ET, The Institute for Supply Management uses a survey to create a composite of business conditions in the Chicago area. The leading indicator is expected to come in at 45 for February, which would be an uptick from January’s 44.3.
• 10:00 AM ET, Consumer Confidence has been falling; the report released on Tuesday is expected to show a rise of 1.3 points to 108.4.
• 1:00 PM ET, Money Supply (M1 and M2) are measures of liquidity, it includes household savings, savings and checking deposits, and money market mutual funds. Over the past few years, money supply measures weren’t getting much attention. As households are dealing with rising prices, it may be interesting for investors to see if amounts immediately available to households are declining at a pace that may begin to hamper spending and economic growth.

Wednesday 3/01

• 10:00 PM ET, The ISM Manufacturing Index surveys business nationally to get the pulse on expected business levels. The forward-looking indicator is expected to have improved to 47.9 versus 47.4 the prior month.

Thursday 3/02

• 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims have been a nail-biter number recently, often well off of expectations. For the week ending February 25th, claims are supposed to show an increase in claims to 200,000.

Friday 3/03

• 10:00 AM ET, ISM Services Index had a strong January at 55.2, it is expected to trail off some and have a February reading of 54.5.
• 12:00 PM, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic has been rattling markets with his ongoing and perhaps heightened hawkish rhetoric. FOMC member Bostic is not a voting member, but his words have the power to move markets.
• 4:15 PM, Thomas Barkin is the Richmond Federal Reserve President. He is scheduled to speak after the market closes. If the Fed is looking to adjust expectations before its late March meeting, FOMC member Barkin may be one that carries that message.

What Else

Earnings reports will continue with some of the most watched being Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Zoom (Z.M.) on Monday. Retailer Target (TGT) reports on Tuesday, Salesforce (CRM), and NIO (NIO) on Wednesday , and Anheiser Busch (BUD) on Thursday.

The U.S. Supreme Court will begin hearing two cases on student loan debt forgiveness beginning on Tuesday. Expect some non-market-moving discourse on this subject during the week.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek