Will the AI Revolution Eliminate the Need for Wealth Managers?

Can Investment Advisors and Artificial Intelligence Co-Exist

Are investment advisors going to be replaced by machine learning artificial intelligence?

Over the years, there have been inventions and technological advancements that we’ve been told will make investment advisors obsolete. This includes mutual funds, ETFs, robo-advisors, zero-commission trades, and trading apps that users sometimes play like a video game. Despite these creations designed to help more people successfully manage their finances and invest in the markets, demand for financial advisors has actually grown. Will AI be the technology that kills the profession? We explore this question below.

Increasing Need for Financial Professionals

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), “Employment of personal financial advisors is projected to grow 15 percent from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations.” Some of the drivers of the increased need include longevity which is expanding the years and needs during retirement, uncertain Social Security, a better appreciation toward investing, and an expected wealth transfer estimated to be as high as $84 trillion to be inherited by younger investors. As birthrates have decreased over the decades in the US, the wealth that will be passed down to younger generations will be shared by fewer siblings, and for many beneficiaries, it may represent a sum far in excess of their current worth.

With more people living into their 90s and beyond, and Social Security being less certain, an understanding of the power of an investment plan, and a lot of newly wealthy young adults to occur over the next two decades, the BLS forecast that the financial advisor profession will grow faster than all other professions, is not surprising.

Will AI Replace Financial Planners?

Being an investment advisor or other financial professional that helps with managing household finances is a service industry. It involves reviewing data, an immense number of options, scenario analysis, projections, and everything that machine learning is expected to excel at within a short time. Does this put the BLS forecast in question and wealth managers at risk of seeing their practice shrink?

For perspective, I reached out, Lucas Noble of Noble Financial Group, LLC (not affiliated with Noble Capital Markets, Inc. or Noble Financial Group, Inc. – creator of Channelchek). Mr. Noble is an Investment Advisor representative (IAR), a Certified Financial Planner (CFP), and holds the designations of Accredited Estate Planner (AEP), and Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC). Noble believes that AI will change the financial planner’s business, and he has enthusiastically welcomed the technology.

On the business management side of running a successful financial advisory business, Noble says, “New artificial intelligence tools could help with discussions and check-ins so that clients are actually in closer touch with his office, so he becomes aware if they need anything.” He has found that it helps to remind clients of things like if they have a set schedule attached to their plan, he added, “the best plan in the world, if not implemented, leaves you with nothing.” AI as a communications tool could help achieve better results by keeping plans on track.

On the financial management side of his practice, he believes there will never be a replacement for human understanding of a household’s needs. While machine learning may be able to better characterize clients, there is a danger in pigeonholing a person’s financial needs too much, as every single household has different needs, and the dynamics and ongoing need changes, drawn against external economic variations, these nuances are not likely to be accessible to AI.

Additionally, he knows the value of trust to his business. People want to know what is behind the decision-making, and they need to develop a relationship with someone or a team they know is on their side. He knows AI could be a part of decision making and at times trust, but doesn’t expect the role of a human financial planner is going away. Lucas has seen that AI  instead adds a new level of value to the advisor’s services, giving them the power to provide even more insightful and personalized advice to help clients reach their financial goals. Embracing proven technology has only helped him better serve, and better retain clients.

AI Investing for IAs

Will AI ever be able to call the markets? Noble says, it’s “crazy to assume that it is impossible.” In light of the advisors’ role of meeting personally with clients, counseling them on their own finances, and plans, perhaps improving on budgets, and deciding where insurance is a preferred alternative, AI can’t be ignored in the role of a financial planner.

Picking stocks, or forecasting when the market may gain strength or weaken, doesn’t help without the knowledge to apply it to individuals whose situation, expectations, and needs are known to the advisor.

Take Away

Artificial intelligence technology has been finding its way into many professions. Businesses are finding new ways to streamline their work, answer customers’ questions, and even know when best to reach out to clients.

The business of financial planning and wealth management is expected to grow faster than any other profession in the coming decades. Adopting the technology for help in running the communications side of the business, and as new programs are developed, scenario analysis to better gauge possible outcomes of different plans, could make sense to some. But this is not expected to replace one-on-one relationships and the depth of human understanding of a household’s situation.

If you are a financial advisor, or a client of one that has had an experience you’d like to share, write to me by clicking on my name below. I always enjoy reader insight.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

A special Thank you to Lucas J. Noble, CFP®, ChFC®, CASL®, AEP®, Noble Financial Group, Wakefield, MA.

Sources

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/business-and-financial/personal-financial-advisors.htm#:~:text=in%20May%202021.-,Job%20Outlook,on%20average%2C%20over%20the%20decade.

https://money.usnews.com/careers/best-jobs/financial-advisor#:~:text=with%20their%20clients.-,The%20Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics%20projects%2015.4%25%20employment%20growth%20for,50%2C900%20jobs%20should%20open%20up.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2023/03/09/the-great-wealth-transfer-will-radically-change-financial-services/?sh=e7f9e7c53393

https://www.cerulli.com/press-releases/cerulli-anticipates-84-trillion-in-wealth-transfers-through-2045

The Coming Market Hiccups, What’s Your Strategy?

Image Credit: Mateusz Dach(Pexels)

Planning for a Changing Market Environment is Not Without Risks

There are two upcoming events, one scheduled and one not. They each have the potential and perhaps are even likely, to jolt or shift financial markets for a period longer than the ordinary disruptions traders and investors experience over the course of any month. These two items are the U.S. elections, which are approaching quickly, and a resolution of the Russia and Ukraine war.

Mid-Terms

On the U.S. side of the Atlantic, the mid-term election is thought of as a referendum on the person in the Oval Office and their party. The democrats who are in power in both legislative branches and also hold the executive branch are likely to lose the House and perhaps the Senate. The gridlock that would unfold if this occurs would include many government spending plans that have helped drive some investment sectors since January 2021. However, the party currently controlling both are viewed by many market participants as not “Wall Street-friendly,” so this could also weigh into market direction. And just as critical for investors, it would have the ability to shift which sectors are winners and which investments one may wish to lighten up in.

European War

In Europe, the war means a lot of things to those that live there. Focusing only from a global investor standpoint, one’s mind first turns to the energy sector. If the outcome is one where Russia largely has its way and annexes a large portion of Ukraine, how long would it take for normalcy to resume? And what would that look like? If, instead, Putin, who is leading the charge, loses power or his resolve, what would this mean for stocks, commodity prices, and overall investor mood? Should investors pre-think all scenarios and have a plan for each?

What Investment Experts Say

Channelchek spoke to a couple of highly respected, highly credentialed money managers and investment experts and asked about pre-planning.

Eric Lutton, CFA is Chief Investment Officer, at Sound Income Strategies. Eric doesn’t expect Putin to be removed, but cautions that if he is, depending on what follows, it may not automatically be good for markets. He said, “If Putin was “pushed” out of power,  a highly unlikely scenario, but if it were to happen, it would mean more unknowns for the market, which would probably be taken as another negative.” Lutton, who has spent a great deal of time in Russia and Northern Europe, explains,  “A vacuum of power in Russia would not be a good thing and could escalate the current situation.” Eric believes if a leader chosen by the West was installed, “inflation would fall, and the Fed could ease up on the rate increases.” Lutton does not think that is a scenario we will see any time soon.

The Sound Income Strategies CIO thinks the media overplays any real risk of Putin dropping a nuclear device so close to Russia on land it seeks to annex. But he did entertain the thought, as I pressured him for hypothetical scenario analysis and investment planning thoughts. “As for investors, if a bomb falls, either Putin or a false flag operation, you’d want to be in 100% cash! No place would be safe other than perhaps a handful of industrial defense or war contractors,” Said Eric Lutton.

As it relates to the November 8th mid-term elections, Eric Lutton isn’t expecting a huge “red wave” win. He points to the notion that there are people that would avoid voting red even if it was clear that the policies would better serve the populace.   Eric does, however expect Republicans to gain a majority in the House and Senate. Even if they only gain a majority in one branch, Lutton says, “I do think there will be a slight pop in the market, but short-lived as the main factors will be the Fed, inflation, supply chain and ongoing conflict in Ukraine.”

Robert Johnson, PhD, CFA, CAIA, is the CEO and Chair at Economic Index Associates. He apologetically offered conventional wisdom, suggesting that it could be a mistake for investors to, “…concern themselves with broad market moves or the crisis du jour.” Johnson, instead, recommends more tried and true portfolio implementation. This includes suggesting the creation of an Investment Policy Statement (IPS). Dr. Johnson explains that clearly defining, in advance, and in accordance with one’s time horizon and other specifics, such as liquidity needs and tax situation, will define the ground rules necessary during temporary hiccups in the market.

As it relates to a personal investment policy statement, the Chair of Economic Index Associates says it is best to develop a policy statement in calm, less volatile markets. He says’ “The whole point of an IPS is to guide you through changing market conditions. It should not be changed as a result of market fluctuations.” He did allow for individual changes in circumstances,” It only needs to be revised when your individual circumstances change — perhaps a divorce or other unanticipated life change.”

As added testimony to what Dr. Johnson knew was less than groundbreaking thoughts on the subject of the two future events and what to do in each, he offered, “ I had a former co-worker who, in the run-up to the 2016 election, was convinced that Hillary Clinton was going to win and the stock market was going to crash. So, immediately prior to the election, he sold out of stocks and went to cash. Stocks surged the day following Trump’s victory, and my co-worker bought back into the market — at a higher price.”

Take-Away

Market hiccups are often short-lived.

While it is prudent to keep your eyes open and know what risks and potential rewards may be, it may also be smart to keep investing within specific boundaries. Those boundaries are best defined when volatility and predictability are average. Within the boundaries, there can be room to lighten up or overweight, but not in ways that pull the investor substantially out of line with their original goal while using the predefined arsenal of stocks, bonds, or other financial products.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

Eric Lutton, CFA

Robert Johnson, CFA

Does BNY Mellon’s Crypto Plans Have Hamilton Rolling Over in His Grave?

Image Credit: Todd Martin (Flickr)

The United States Oldest Bank Embraces Safekeeping Cryptocurrency Alongside Other Assets

The nation’s oldest bank, founded in 1784, began taking deposits of cryptocurrency today. BNY Mellon, with roots in the Bank of New York and Alexander Hamilton, is now the first large U.S. bank to custody client’s bitcoin and ether.

The bank will store the keys required to access and transfer crypto and provide the same bookkeeping services on digital currencies it offers for stocks, bonds, commodities, and other assets. BNY Mellon is one of the largest and most trusted in the business of traditional safekeeping; they now have made history by adding this additional service for investment managers to clear, service and safe keep digital assets.

As America’s oldest bank, BNY Mellon has a 238-year legacy on which to build. As a company it provided the first loan to the U.S. to fund the Revolutionary War and has weathered as many different financial eras as the country that it has helped build. Back in February 2021, BNY Mellon formed its enterprise Digital Assets Unit to develop services for digital asset technology. The goal was to launch the industry’s first multi-asset platform that provides safekeeping for digital and traditional assets.

“Touching more than 20% of the world’s investable assets, BNY Mellon has the scale to reimagine financial markets through blockchain technology and digital assets,” said Robin Vince, Chief Executive Officer and President at BNY Mellon. “We are excited to help drive the financial industry forward as we begin the next chapter in our innovation journey.”

Image Credit: Mark Holler (Flickr)

BNY Mellon recognizes the significant institutional demand for a resilient, scalable financial infrastructure designed to accommodate digital assets alongside traditional ones. The bank had previously surveyed money managers that use their safekeeping services and found almost all institutional investors (91%) are interested in investing in tokenized products. Additionally, 41% of institutional investors hold cryptocurrency in their portfolios today, with an additional 15% planning to hold digital assets in their portfolios within the next two to five years. Safekeeping them all under one system will benefit clients.

BNY Mellon has been working closely with market-leading fintech firms. The firm tapped digital asset technology specialists Fireblocks and Chainalysis to integrate their technology in order to meet the present and future security and compliance needs of clients across the digital asset space.

 BNY Mellon is a global investment company helping its clients manage and service their financial assets throughout the investment lifecycle. Clients include institutions, corporations, and individual investors. It delivers investment management, wealth management, and investment services in 35 countries. As of June 30, 2022, BNY Mellon had $43.0 trillion in assets under custody and/or administration and $1.9 trillion in assets under management. BNY BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK).

“As the world’s largest custodian, BNY Mellon is the natural provider to create a safe and secure Digital Asset Custody Platform for institutional clients,” said Caroline Butler, CEO of Custody Services at BNY Mellon. “We will continue to innovate, embrace new technology and work closely with clients to address their evolving needs.”

“With Digital Asset Custody, we continue our journey of trust and innovation into the evolving digital assets space, while embracing leading technology and collaborating with fintechs,” said Roman Regelman, CEO of Securities Services & Digital at BNY Mellon.

Take Away

The world is changing, and even the oldest bank in the U.S. is getting on board with the changes. The addition of BNY Mellon as a holder of cryptocurrency keys is a big nod to the crypto management industry. Portfolio managers of all sizes are now able to provide statements with a wider variety of asset classes held. Does this mean the newcomers that now transact and hold cryptocurrency will either be bought or lose potential large customers? That remains to be seen.

 Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.bnymellon.com/us/en/about-us/newsroom/press-release/bny-mellon-launches-new-digital-asset-custody-platform-130305.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/crypto-could-threaten-financial-system-federal-risk-panel-warns-11664826496?mod=article_inline

https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-oldest-bank-bny-mellon-will-hold-that-crypto-now-11665460354?mod=djemalertNEWS