Tag: TikTok

The End of TikTok in the US As We Know It?

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a historic move with far-reaching implications, President Joe Biden signed into law a bipartisan bill on Wednesday that gives Chinese company ByteDance one year to sell or spin off its wildly popular video app TikTok. Failure to comply would result in an outright ban of the app across the United States.

The new legislation marks a dramatic escalation in the ongoing tensions between Washington and Beijing over technology and national security. It thrusts TikTok into the center of a geopolitical tug-of-war that could reshape the internet landscape and social media as we know it.

“This is another front in the brewing US-China tech Cold War that started under the previous administration,” said Stephen Weymouth, a business professor at Georgetown University. “Congress is taking an increasingly aggressive regulatory stance that we haven’t seen before with tech companies.”

At the core of the issue are concerns from US officials that ByteDance, as a Chinese company, could be compelled to hand over TikTok’s data on American users or manipulate content on the influential platform at the behest of Beijing – allegations that TikTok has vehemently denied.

The new law sets the stage for a high-stakes game of brinksmanship between ByteDance and Washington over the next 12 months. The company now faces an agonizing decision: sell off TikTok’s US operations and bid farewell to one of the world’s most lucrative markets, or refuse to comply and risk getting booted out entirely.

“TikTok is going to fight tooth and nail. Banning or forcing a sale would be devastating for them and silence 170 million American voices,” a TikTok spokesperson warned after Biden’s signing. The company has signaled it plans to mount a vigorous legal challenge.

If ByteDance does opt to sell, finding an acceptable buyer could prove complicated. While some investors like former Trump official Steven Mnuchin have expressed interest, concerns remain over whether China would greenlight exporting TikTok’s prized algorithm that drives the addictive video feed.

Valued at potentially over $100 billion, any sale would rank among the largest tech deals ever and a huge windfall for ByteDance’s investors. But without the core technology, TikTok’s allure and price tag would plummet.

The implications extend far beyond just TikTok itself. A US ban could embolden others like India to follow suit and fracture the internet even further along geopolitical faultlines. It could also hasten a broader decoupling of technology supply chains away from China.

For the over 170 million American TikTok users and legions of influencers and businesses hosted on the app, it casts a pall of uncertainty. “Devastation” is how TikTok described the toll a potential ban could take.

In many respects, the TikTok fight has become a touchstone in the intensifying rivalry between the US and China for technological supremacy in the 21st century – with huge economic and security stakes.

“We hope TikTok can live on under new ownership outside China’s control,” said Senator Mark Warner, a key architect of the bill. “But one way or another, we cannot allow data security on Americans to be jeopardized by foreign adversary.”

With the clock now ticking for ByteDance, TikTok’s future in the US will be one of the biggest tech stories to watch over the coming year. Its fate could have far-reaching and lasting impacts on the internet we all use.

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TikTok Bill Sends Shockwaves Through Tech World

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The House of Representatives has fired a major salvo in the battle over TikTok, passing legislation that could lead to a nationwide ban of the wildly popular social media app. The bill, which passed with bipartisan support by a 352-65 vote, gives ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese parent company, a stark choice – divest its ownership of TikTok or see the app effectively prohibited from operating in the United States.

This dramatic escalation in Washington’s war on TikTok, driven by concerns over data privacy and the app’s perceived ties to the Chinese government, has sent shockwaves rippling through Silicon Valley and Wall Street. While the bill’s future remains uncertain as it heads to the Senate, the specter of losing access to one of the world’s largest markets has tech giants and investors on edge.

For the big tech behemoths like Apple and Google who control the app stores, a TikTok ban could be a double-edged sword. On one hand, removing TikTok opens up their platforms to competitors eager to fill the void. But it also sets a concerning precedent of the government dictating what apps can operate, potentially opening the door to bans on other apps down the line.

The fallout could be even more severe for ByteDance and TikTok. Analysts estimate that a forced sale of TikTok’s U.S. operations could fetch a staggering $60 billion or more given the app’s massive stateside user base and potential for future monetization. However, ByteDance may choose to remove TikTok from the U.S. entirely rather than divest it.

Such a development would be a seismic disruption not just for TikTok’s core business, but for the legions of creators, influencers, and businesses who have built audiences, brands, and revenue streams on the platform. Many are already working feverishly to diversify away from TikTok in anticipation of a potential ban.

The ripple effects could be felt across the tech sector and extend to adjacent industries like entertainment, advertising, and media that have been reshaped by the rise of TikTok and other social apps. Any mass exodus of users, creators and brands from TikTok would reshuffle the digital landscape in unpredictable ways.

On Wall Street, tech investors are scrambling to gauge the impact across portfolios. While some think established players like Meta could benefit from TikTok’s potential exit, others worry about the broader chilling effect on innovation from a precedent-setting ban of a consumer app over national security concerns.

Prominent Republican financier Keith Rabois summed up the stakes, declaring the TikTok bill an “IQ test” for lawmakers and vowing to withhold donations from those who oppose it. The tensions highlight how the issue has become a political lightning rod stretching beyond just the tech world.

As the bill moves to the Senate, the ultimate resolution remains unclear. TikTok has defiantly pushed back, framing the bill as a violation of free speech. The Biden administration has stopped short of endorsing an outright ban while reiterating data security concerns. And former President Trump, who tried to ban TikTok in 2020, expressed reservations about handing a competitive windfall to Facebook.

What is certain is that Congress has now made its opening gambit to bring the hammer down on TikTok and its Chinese ownership. The shock waves from that decision will continue reverberating across the tech industry and markets as they brace for the uncharted waters ahead.

Unexpected Adjustments Among Today’s Self-Directed Investors

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Focal Foto (Flickr)

How Decision-Making and Market Impact is Shifting for Retail Investors

Retail investors’ preferences change over time. This impacts sector strength and the overall direction of markets. Even the methods of interacting with exchanges change as newer products like trading apps, artificial intelligence, and exchange-traded products (ETP) become available.

The influence retail has is growing, and anecdotally shifting preferences happen more quickly. Within this category, there are self-directed investors with different knowledge bases and at different stages of their lives. As people move through different stages, their concerns, outlooks, and risk tolerances adjust. Nasdaq just published its second annual survey of retail investors to measure how their interests are changing and what impact that may have. The survey of 2,000 investors from Gen Z to Baby Boomers uncovered some surprising trends in decision-making, fears, comfort zones, and asset class preferences.

Generational Groupings

There were a number of commonalities exposed by the Nasdaq survey between the different generations. They all listed their greatest concerns to be inflation and recession, but while the youngest (Gen Z, born 1997 – 2012) found housing and real estate a deep concern, the oldest group (Baby Boomers, born 1946 – 1964) are more concerned about tax rate changes. The generations in the middle (Gen X born 1965 –1980) and (Millennials born 1981 – 1996) show a greater concern over interest rate changes.

The survey question sought to understand how much time investors in each generation spent researching buy and sell investment decisions. Of Gen Z, on average 48% spent less than an hour, while 3% of these younger adults evaluated the transaction for at least a month. The next age category, Millennials, spent a bit more time on diligence. Only 28% would buy or sell with less than an hour of thought put into the transaction. Of this group, 4% took a month or longer to decide. This trend toward more time researching research continued as the survey reveals the Gen X greater propensity to spend more time evaluating before a purchase. Only 15% would press the buy or sell button with less than an hour spent understanding the investment – 7% of Gen X investors say they take a month or longer.

A big difference between the youngest and the oldest, is that among the Gen Z investors, although almost half said they spend fewer than 60 minutes researching, 0% said they did not research at all. Of the Baby Boomers surveyed, 24% indicated they spend no time researching before they buy or sell. It’s unclear if this is because the older group is less tech savvy, hires a professional to do the research, or believes they have the knowledge to move without digging deeper.

Overlap in Generational Preferences

Data Sources: Nasdaq

Other Trends

Despite their top concerns listed as recession and inflation, 71% of Gen Z and 50% of Millennials say they are investing more aggressively. This is in stark difference to the 9% of Boomers and 20% of Gen X describing their strategies as more aggressive than the previous year.

The influence of Twitter, Facebook and even TikTok keeps expanding. 73% of Gen Z use TikTok as a source for investment information. This is an 18% increase from the prior year. Baby boomer TikTok investment use rose by 16% to its current 25%.

The investment themes from year-to-year show ESG and crypto interest sinking, while robotics and other autonomous technology is where the focus has increased most. Younger investors are more active in their investments than before, and more frequently conducting their own research ahead of transacting. Investors of all ages are more likely to consider alternative options than they had before, these could include options, cryptocurrencies, exchange traded products, etc.

Competition among brokerage platforms is as fierce as it is in any innovative, tech heavy industry. The availability of advanced technology and commission-free trading have made investing more accessible, especially for the younger investors.

Take Away

The second annual survey conducted by Nasdaq indicates that the retail investor growth and power we’ve experienced in recent years was not a fad, it is growing and becoming more sophisticated. They are more influential and should be understood as they are here to stay. This is expected to continue to disrupt and influence markets dramatically.

As retail trends take a higher position of importance in defining the day-to-day challenges of investing and mapping the markets’ future, these self-directed investors are finding more services to accommodate them. One source is the Channelchek platform where retail and institutional investors, of all ages can review research reports, absorb video discussions with management of interesting opportunities, expand understanding through daily articles, and, if relevant, attend a roadshow to meet a particular company’s management.  

Signup for Channelchek emails and full access here.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/retail-revival%3A-how-a-year-of-market-volatility-reshaped-investor-strategies

https://nd.nasdaq.com/GENZ

https://nd.nasdaq.com/Millennials

https://nd.nasdaq.com/GENX

https://nd.nasdaq.com/BabyBoomers

Real Risks to TikTok Users

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image: Congressional Hearings with Byte Dance (TikTok) CEO, C-SPAN (YouTube)

Should the US Ban TikTok? Can It? A Cybersecurity Expert Explains the Risks the App Poses

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew testified before the House Energy and Commerce Committee on March 23, 2023, amid a chorus of calls from members of Congress for the federal government to ban the Chinese-owned video social media app and reports that the Biden administration is pushing for the company’s sale.

The federal government, along with many state and foreign governments and some companies, has banned TikTok on work-provided phones. This type of ban can be effective for protecting data related to government work.

But a full ban of the app is another matter, which raises a number of questions: What data privacy risk does TikTok pose? What could the Chinese government do with data collected by the app? Is its content recommendation algorithm dangerous? And is it even possible to ban an app?

This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of, Doug Jacobson, Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Iowa State University.

Vacuuming Up Data

As a cybersecurity researcher, I’ve noted that every few years a new mobile app that becomes popular raises issues of security, privacy and data access.

Apps collect data for several reasons. Sometimes the data is used to improve the app for users. However, most apps collect data that the companies use in part to fund their operations. This revenue typically comes from targeting users with ads based on the data they collect. The questions this use of data raises are: Does the app need all this data? What does it do with the data? And how does it protect the data from others?

So what makes TikTok different from the likes of Pokemon-GO, Facebook or even your phone itself? TikTok’s privacy policy, which few people read, is a good place to start. Overall, the company is not particularly transparent about its practices. The document is too long to list here all the data it collects, which should be a warning.

There are a few items of interest in TikTok’s privacy policy besides the information you give them when you create an account – name, age, username, password, language, email, phone number, social media account information and profile image – that are concerning. This information includes location data, data from your clipboard, contact information, website tracking, plus all data you post and messages you send through the app. The company claims that current versions of the app do not collect GPS information from U.S. users. There has been speculation that TikTok is collecting other information, but that is hard to prove.

If most apps collect data, why is the U.S. government worried about TikTok? First, they worry about the Chinese government accessing data from its 150 million users in the U.S. There is also a concern about the algorithms used by TikTok to show content.

Data in the Chinese Government’s Hands

If the data does end up in the hands of the Chinese government, the question is how could it use the data to its benefit. The government could share it with other companies in China to help them profit, which is no different than U.S. companies sharing marketing data. The Chinese government is known for playing the long game, and data is power, so if it is collecting data, it could take years to learn how it benefits China.

One potential threat is the Chinese government using the data to spy on people, particularly people who have access to valuable information. The Justice Department is investigating TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, for using the app to monitor U.S. journalists. The Chinese government has an extensive history of hacking U.S. government agencies and corporations, and much of that hacking has been facilitated by social engineering – the practice of using data about people to trick them into revealing more information.

The second issue that the U.S. government has raised is algorithm bias or algorithm manipulation. TikTok and most social media apps have algorithms designed to learn a user’s interests and then try to adjust the content so the user will continue to use the app. TikTok has not shared its algorithm, so it’s not clear how the app chooses a user’s content.

The algorithm could be biased in a way that influences a population to believe certain things. There are numerous allegations that TiKTok’s algorithm is biased and can reinforce negative thoughts among younger users, and be used to affect public opinion. It could be that the algorithm’s manipulative behavior is unintentional, but there is concern that the Chinese government has been using or could use the algorithm to influence people.

Meet the Management Information

Can the Government Ban an App?

If the federal government comes to the conclusion that TikTok should be banned, is it even possible to ban it for all of its 150 million existing users? Any such ban would likely start with blocking the distribution of the app through Apple’s and Google’s app stores. This might keep many users off the platform, but there are other ways to download and install apps for people who are determined to use them.

A more drastic method would be to force Apple and Google to change their phones to prevent TikTok from running. While I’m not a lawyer, I think this effort would fail due to legal challenges, which include First Amendment concerns. The bottom line is that an absolute ban will be tough to enforce.

There are also questions about how effective a ban would be even if it were possible. By some estimates, the Chinese government has already collected personal information on at least 80% of the U.S. population via various means. So a ban might limit the damage going forward to some degree, but the Chinese government has already collected a significant amount of data. The Chinese government also has access – along with anyone else with money – to the large market for personal data, which fuels calls for stronger data privacy rules.

Are You at Risk?

So as an average user, should you worry? Again, it is unclear what data ByteDance is collecting and if it can harm an individual. I believe the most significant risks are to people in power, whether it is political power or within a company. Their data and information could be used to gain access to other data or potentially compromise the organizations they are associated with.

The aspect of TikTok I find most concerning is the algorithm that decides what videos users see and how it can affect vulnerable groups, particularly young people. Independent of a ban, families should have conversions about TikTok and other social media platforms and how they can be detrimental to mental health. These conversations should focus on how to determine if the app is leading you down an unhealthy path.