Tag: Thermal Coal

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Increasing Longer-Term Oil and Gas Royalty Volume Expectations; Price Target Increased

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, November 27, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Adjusting estimates. While our 2024 and 2025 estimates are unchanged, we have increased our 2026 through 2030 EBITDA and EPU estimates to reflect higher year-over-year growth in oil and gas royalty volumes of 12.5% compared to our previous estimate of 2.0% which we think is too conservative based on the partnership’s record. Our commodity price deck is unchanged. We have assumed an average of $75 million per year in oil and gas reserve acquisitions in 2026 through 2030. Based on our higher forward estimates and a modest 100-basis point reduction in our discount rate to 9.5%, we have increased our price target to $33 per share from $28.

Hail to the incoming chief. We expect industries associated with the fossil fuels to benefit from the upcoming change in U.S. Presidential administrations. It is our belief that the Trump Administration may seek to roll back the EPA’s carbon emissions rule which could extend the life of existing coal-fired power plants. Moreover, we think the business climate could improve based on a move toward market-based energy policies and a reduction in regulatory burden.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Aurania Resources (AUIAF) – Increasing Financial Flexibility Ahead of the 2025 Exploration Program

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, November 26, 2024

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Private placement financing. Aurania intends to raise up to C$4.0 million in a private placement of up to ~8.9 million units at a price of C$0.45 per unit to fund exploration programs in France and Ecuador. Each unit will consist of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant may be used to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.75 for a period of 24 months following the closing of the offering. The private placement is expected to close in December and is contingent on the receipt of necessary approvals, including by the TSX Venture Exchange.

Concessions in Ecuador. Aurania reached an agreement with Ecuadorian authorities regarding the payment of its 2024 concession fees for its 42 mineral exploration concessions in Ecuador. Aurania has made a partial payment with the balance to be paid within the following six months, including interest associated with the outstanding amount. The concessions remain in good standing.


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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Third Quarter Results Negatively Impacted by Operational Challenges

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, October 29, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Third quarter financial results. Alliance reported third quarter EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $170.7 million and $0.66, respectively, compared to $227.6 million and $1.18 during the prior year period. We had forecast adjusted EBITDA of $220.5 million and $0.82, respectively. Revenue declined 3.6% to $613.6 million because of lower coal sales prices which declined 2.1% due in part to lower export pricing in Appalachia. Operating expenses increased 13.5% due to a longwall move and challenging mining conditions at all three Appalachia operations that reduced recoveries and increased costs. The partnership also experienced a $2.3 million loss related to its equity investment in Francis Energy.

Adjusting estimates. We have lowered our 2024 EBITDA and EPU estimates to $760.1 million and $3.25, respectively, from $813.6 million and $3.60. Our estimates reflect lower coal sales and higher segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton. Additionally, we have modestly lowered our 2025 EBITDA and EPU estimates to $831.7 million and $3.40, respectively, from $835.2 million and $3.43. 


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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – ARLP To Report Third Quarter Financial Results on October 28

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, October 17, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Crude oil and natural gas prices. Because ARLP has hedge-free exposure to commodity prices within its oil and gas royalty business, we revised our model to reflect updated commodity prices. We have revised our 2024 average crude oil and natural gas price estimates to $75.97 per barrel and $2.37 per Mcf, respectively, from $77.66 and $2.32. Our average 2025 crude oil and natural gas price estimates were lowered to $68.41 per barrel and $3.17 per Mcf from $71.39 and $3.22. 

Updating estimates. We have trimmed our 2024 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $813.6 million and $3.60, respectively, from $816.1 million and $3.61. Our 2025 EBITDA and EPS estimates were lowered to $835.2 million and $3.43, respectively, from $841.0 million and $3.47. Beyond hedge-free exposure to crude oil and natural gas, ARLP’s ownership of bitcoin may also influence results. As of June 30, Alliance owned 452 bitcoins. On June 30, the price of a bitcoin closed at $62,678.29 compared to $63,329.50 on September 30. The bitcoin price closed at $67,640.84 on October 16. While there is a futures market, we generally do not try to predict the price of bitcoin or how many coins the partnership may sell during any given quarter.


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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – ARLP Updates 2024 Guidance; Revising Estimates

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, July 31, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Second quarter financial results. Alliance reported second quarter EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $177.7 million and $0.77, respectively, compared to $249.2 million and $1.30 during the prior year period. We had forecast EBITDA and EPU of $196.9 million and $0.86. Revenue declined 7.6% to $593.4 million due to lower coal sales volumes, which declined 11.8% due to transportation delays that were partially offset by higher coal sales price realizations which increased 3.8% to $65.30 per ton. Alliance experienced a $3.7 million, or $0.03 per unit, decrease in the fair value of the partnership’s digital assets. Roughly 500,000 tons of coal sales were deferred and are expected to be made up during the remainder of the year.

Updated 2024 corporate guidance. Management updated its 2024 guidance which calls for lower coal sales volumes and higher oil and gas royalty volumes. The lower coal sales guidance is based on uncertainty associated with coal export sales. While the guidance for coal sales volume was lowered, sales price realization expectations were increased at the midpoint of guidance.


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Aurania Resources (AUIAF) – Take-Aways from the Annual General Meeting

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, June 17, 2024

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Annual shareholder meeting. Shareholders approved all resolutions at the company’s annual meeting on June 13. These included approving the financial statements for the year-ended December 31, 2023, the report of the auditors, the appointment of auditors, election of directors, and the company’s incentive stock option plan for the upcoming year.

Corporate update. Dr. Keith Barron, CEO and Director, provided a corporate update highlighting key priorities in 2024 and 2025. These include: 1) exploration at the Lost Cities project in Ecuador, 2) advancing the company’s application for an exploration license in the Brittany Peninsula of northwestern France, 3) advancing joint venture and strategic partnership discussions, and 4) expanding community access agreements and community projects in Ecuador. At least one major mining company has been active in Aurania’s data room and in discussions with the company.


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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Revising Estimates Following Successful Note Offering

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, June 14, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Senior notes offering. Alliance recently completed a $400 million private offering of 8.625% senior unsecured notes due in 2029. A portion of the net proceeds will fund the redemption of its outstanding 7.5% senior notes due in 2025. Alliance delivered a notice of redemption for all outstanding 2025 notes. The redemption price for the 2025 notes is 100% of the principal amount plus accrued and unpaid interest to the redemption date, which is expected to be June 28. As of March 31, senior notes outstanding were $284.6 million.

Second quarter coal shipments. The partnership’s April 2024 coal sales volumes declined 15% to ~2.4 million tons versus ~2.9 million tons during the prior year month. In Appalachia, coal sales volumes decreased 48.2% compared to April 2023 due to the loss of 10 shipping days as a result of high-water events that impacted loading at the Tunnel Ridge complex, along with deferred shipments due to the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse. In the Illinois Basin, coal sales volume remained relatively consistent with April 2023. Lower volumes at River View due to slowing barge traffic were almost entirely offset by higher volumes at Gibson South due to spot export sales. Volumes deferred at River View and Tunnel Ridge amounted to 420,000 tons and 77,000 tons, respectively, and are expected to be shipped throughout the balance of 2024.


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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – An Interesting Turn of Events

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, May 20, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Location, location. Alliance is the largest coal producer in the eastern U.S. with operations in the Illinois Basin and Appalachia. The partnership produces a diverse range of thermal coals with high heat content and benefits from access to both domestic and export markets. With demand for electricity expected to grow, Alliance is well-positioned to increase its market share despite efforts to curb coal-fired generation and coal’s declining share of the electricity generation market. Closure dates for coal-fired power plants are being delayed due to growing energy demand and reliability concerns.

Trouble brewing in the Powder River Basin (PRB)? Last week the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) proposed ending federal coal leasing in the Powder River Basin. The PRB includes Wyoming and Montana and accounted for 44% of the coal produced in the United States in 2022. The Bureau expects coal production in Wyoming to continue through 2041 under existing leases. While we expect the ruling to be challenged, it underscores the uncertainty and challenges facing coal mining operations on federally leased lands. The BLM manages public land in the western United States. In our view, coal could turn into an increasingly scarce resource in the United States which could be supportive of pricing.


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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Strong Start to 2024; Outlook Remains Favorable

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, May 01, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

First quarter financial results. Alliance reported first quarter EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $235.0 million and $1.21, respectively, compared to $270.9 million and $1.45 during the prior year period. We had forecast EBITDA and EPU of $209.7 million and $0.97. Coal sales price realizations were above the high end of the partnership’s annual guidance range, while the oil & gas royalty segment experienced record volumes. Additionally, operating expenses were lower than expected and the company benefited from an $11.9 million mark-to-market change in the value of digital assets.

Updating estimates. We have increased our 2024 EBITDA and EPU estimates to $871.3 million and $4.14 from $841.1 million and $3.90, respectively. We think our forward estimates could be conservative based on the potential for higher average coal sales price realizations and stronger than expected performance from the partnership’s oil and gas royalty segment.


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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Lowering Near-Term Estimates to Reflect More Conservative Pricing and Cost Assumptions

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, April 11, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updating estimates. We have lowered our 2024 EBITDA and EPU estimates to $841.1 million and $3.90 from $846.9 million and $3.98, respectively. Among our revisions, we have lowered our coal price assumptions, increased our expense estimates, and made minor changes in our unit count. Our estimates remain within the partnership’s guidance ranges and are summarized within this report.

New officer appointment. Mr. Steven Schnitzer recently joined the general partner of ARLP as Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary. Mr. Schnitzer was involved in the 1996 leveraged buy-out of MAPCO Coal, now Alliance Resource Partners, and regularly represented the partnership until 2014 when he left private practice. His experience working with companies in the natural resources and energy transition fields will be helpful as Alliance pursues growth opportunities within and outside its traditional businesses. Most recently, Mr. Schnitzer served as Chief Legal Officer and Secretary of a commercial and industrial solar generation and battery storage developer.


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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Lowering 2024 Estimates; Rating Remains an Outperform

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, February 23, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updating our financial model. We have lowered our 2024 EBITDA and EPU estimates to $846.9 million and $3.98 from $935.9 million and $4.64, respectively. Our revisions are due mostly to changes in and our treatment of coal royalty revenue and equity method investment income. In our model, coal royalty revenues are included in other revenues. Because equity method investment income fluctuates, we decided not to include it in our forward estimates for the time being. Lastly, we updated our oil and gas price deck which reflects modestly lower forward gas prices.

A strong growth track record. In 1999, the partnership went public in an initial public offering. In 2000, ARLP generated revenue of $363.5 million, EBITDA of $71.3 million and net income of $15.6 million or $0.98 per unit. In 2023, the partnership generated revenue of $2.6 billion, EBITDA of $933.1 million and net income of $636.2 million or $4.81 per unit. While ARLP’s coal sales increased from 15.0 million tons to 34.4 million tons in the intervening years, ARLP’s revenue streams have also become more diversified.


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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Moving Past a Challenging Fourth Quarter; ARLP Provides its 2024 Outlook

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, January 30, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results. Alliance reported fourth-quarter EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $185.4 million and $0.88, respectively, compared to $296.9 million and $1.63 during the prior year period. We had forecast EBITDA and EPU of $226.6 million and $1.02. On a full year basis, Alliance generated EBITDA and EPU of $933.1 million and $4.81, respectively, compared to our estimates of $969.9 million and $4.95. Fourth quarter results were negatively impacted by lower Appalachia coal volumes due to reduced recoveries, fewer operating units at MC Mining, and challenging conditions that delayed development of a new longwall district at Alliance’s Mettiki operation. Operating expenses increased $20.4 million due to outside coal purchases and accounted for a portion of the variance to our earnings estimate.

Management guidance for 2024. Total coal sales are expected to be in the range of 34.0 million to 35.8 million tons, while the coal sales price per ton is expected to be in the range of $61.75 to $63.75. Segmented adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold is expected to be $41.00 to $43.00. The company has committed and priced over 90% of 2024 expected coal sales volumes, or 32.5 million tons of which 4.1 million tons will be sold in the export market.


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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – The Strategy Supporting ARLP’s Strategic Investments Becomes More Apparent

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, January 17, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Collaboration with Infinitum. Infinitum, a leader in sustainable air-core motors, and Matrix Design Group, a wholly owned subsidiary of Alliance Resource Partners, L.P., announced an agreement to jointly develop and distribute high-efficiency motors and advanced motor controllers designed for the mining industry. Matrix will integrate Infinitum’s smaller and lighter motor technology into ARLP’s mining subsidiary equipment to validate performance in various production environments. In addition to supporting installations at ARLP operations, Matrix plans to offer the products globally to third-party mining customers.

Updating estimates. We have trimmed our fourth quarter and full year 2023 EPS estimates to $1.02 and $4.95 from $1.03 and $4.96, respectively. Our full year 2023 EBITDA estimate is $969.9 million compared to our previous estimate of $975.2 million. We have also trimmed our 2024 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $972.8 million and $4.95, respectively, from $998.1 million and $5.05. The revisions reflect lower oil and gas price assumptions relative to our previous estimates. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.