Reports fourth-quarter GAAP revenues of $74 million,an all-time quarterly high, exceeding guidance and including a negative FX impact of $3.2 million
Reports fourth-quarter net income of $4 million, GAAP EPS of $0.09 and adjusted EPS of $0.13, all fourth-quarter records
Reports record fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $11 million, exceeding guidance
Achieves record full-year results: GAAP revenues of $286 million, up 8% in constant currency; operating income of $29 million, up 17%; net income of $20 million, up 27%; adjusted net income of $27 million, up 18%, GAAP EPS of $0.39, up 30%; adjusted EPS of $0.53, up 20%; adjusted EBITDA of $43 million, up 11%
Declares first-quarter dividend of $0.04 per share, payable March 31, 2023, to shareholders of record as of March 20, 2023
As previously announced, amends credit agreement to include more favorable terms, an extended maturity date, elimination of $4.3 million of mandatory annual principal payments, and conversion to an all-revolving credit facility with $140 million of borrowing capacity
Sets first-quarter guidance: revenues between $73 million and $75 million and adjusted EBITDA between $10 million and $11 million
STAMFORD, Conn.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Information Services Group (ISG) (Nasdaq: III), a leading global technology research and advisory firm, today announced record financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2022.
“ISG delivered our best quarterly and full-year performance in our 17-year history—on every key financial metric,” said Michael P. Connors, chairman and CEO. “Fourth-quarter revenue and profitability reached record highs, led by double-digit operating growth in the Americas and Europe as client demand for efficiency and optimization escalates. Our suite of client solutions in digital transformation, cost optimization, research, workplace and governance services, supported by our successful ISG NEXT operating model, is a winning combination.”
Some clients, especially those in industries and geographies facing the toughest market conditions, are turning to ISG to help them optimize their IT and operating environments, Connors said. “Clients trust ISG for our unmatched combination of data, insights, expertise, tools and solutions to help streamline their technology and operating environments, reinvest in continuous transformation and get the most out of the collaboration between people and technology,” he said.
Fourth-Quarter 2022 Results
Reported revenues for the fourth quarter were a record $74.2 million, up 7 percent from $69.6 million in the prior year, and up 11 percent in constant currency. Currency translation negatively impacted reported revenues by $3.2 million versus the prior year. Reported revenues were $43.6 million in the Americas, up 12 percent; $23.9 million in Europe, up 1 percent on a reported basis and up 12 percent in constant currency; and $6.7 million in Asia Pacific, down 4 percent on a reported basis and up 5 percent in constant currency, all versus the prior year.
ISG reported fourth-quarter operating income of $7.2 million, flat versus the prior year. Reported fourth-quarter net income was a record $4.3 million, up 20 percent, compared with net income of $3.6 million in the prior year. Fully diluted earnings per share was a record $0.09, compared with $0.07 per fully diluted share in the prior year. Net income margin (calculated by dividing net income by reported revenues) increased to 5.8 percent, from 5.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Adjusted net income (a non-GAAP measure defined below under “Non-GAAP Financial Measures”) for the fourth quarter was $6.5 million, or a record $0.13 per share on a fully diluted basis, compared with adjusted net income of $5.1 million, or $0.10 per share on a fully diluted basis, in the prior year’s fourth quarter.
Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA (a non-GAAP measure defined below under “Non-GAAP Financial Measures”) was a record $11.1 million, up 9 percent from the prior-year fourth quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin (a non-GAAP measure calculated by dividing adjusted EBITDA by reported revenues) was 15 percent, up 33 basis points from the prior year.
Full-Year 2022 Results
Reported revenues for the full-year were a record $286.3 million, up 3 percent versus the prior-year, and up 8 percent in constant currency. Currency translation negatively impacted reported revenues by $12.7 million versus 2021. Reported revenues were $166.7 million in the Americas, up 4 percent; $89.9 million in Europe, flat on a reported basis and up 12 percent in constant currency; and $29.7 million in Asia Pacific, up 8 percent on a reported basis and up 16 percent in constant currency, all versus the prior year.
ISG reported record full-year operating income of $29.5 million, up 17 percent from $25.3 million in the prior year. The firm also reported record net income and fully diluted earnings per share of $19.7 million and $0.39, respectively, versus net income of $15.5 million and earnings per share of $0.30 in the prior year. Net income margin (calculated by dividing net income by reported revenues) increased to 6.9 percent, from 5.6 percent in the same period last year.
Adjusted net income (a non-GAAP measure defined below under “Non-GAAP Financial Measures”) for the full year was a record $26.9 million, or $0.53 per share on a fully diluted basis, compared with adjusted net income of $22.9 million, or $0.44 per share on a fully diluted basis, in the prior year.
Full-year adjusted EBITDA (a non-GAAP measure defined below under “Non-GAAP Financial Measures”) reached a record $43.3 million, up 11 percent from the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margin (a non-GAAP measure calculated by dividing adjusted EBITDA by reported revenues) was a record 15 percent, up more than 110 basis points from the prior year.
Other Financial and Operating Highlights
ISG generated $6.6 million of cash from operations in the fourth quarter, compared with $2.5 million in the prior year, and $11.1 million for the full year. The firm’s cash balance totaled $30.6 million at December 31, 2022, up from $19.7 million at September 30, 2022.
During the fourth quarter, ISG paid dividends of $2.0 million, paid down $1.1 million of debt and drew down $9.0 million on its revolving credit agreement with the funds used for the acquisition of Change 4 Growth and for general operating purposes. As of December 31, 2022, ISG had $79.2 million in debt outstanding, compared with $74.5 million at the end of the fourth quarter last year. The firm’s gross-debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA ratio (a non-GAAP measure calculated by dividing outstanding debt by adjusted EBITDA) was 1.8 times, a record low for year end.
“Our strong operating results allowed us to return $23.6 million of capital to our shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases in 2022,” Connors said. “It also allowed us to amend our existing credit agreement, converting it to an all-revolver facility, with more favorable terms and an extended maturity date.”
Amended Credit Agreement
As previously announced, on February 22, 2023, ISG successfully amended the credit agreement that the firm originally entered into on March 10, 2020. The amended agreement provides $140 million of borrowing capacity at more favorable terms, converts the previous term and revolving loan into an all-revolving credit facility, eliminates $4.3 million of mandatory annual principal payments under the previous agreement, and extends the maturity date of the previous agreement by three years, to February 2028.
2023 First-Quarter Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Guidance
“For the first quarter, ISG is targeting revenues of between $73 million and $75 million – including 200 basis points of FX headwinds – and adjusted EBITDA of between $10 million and $11 million. We will continue to monitor the macroeconomic environment, including the impact of FX, inflation and other factors, and adjust our business plans accordingly.”
Quarterly Dividend
The ISG Board of Directors declared a first-quarter dividend of $0.04 per share, payable on March 31, 2023, to shareholders of record as of March 20, 2023.
Conference Call
ISG has scheduled a call for 9 a.m., U.S. Eastern Time, Friday, March 10, 2023, to discuss the company’s fourth-quarter results. The call can be accessed by dialing +1 833-470-1428; or, for international callers, by dialing +1 929-526-1599. The access code is 356636. A recording of the conference call will be accessible on ISG’s website (www.isg-one.com) for approximately four weeks following the call.
Forward-Looking Statements
This communication contains “forward-looking statements” which represent the current expectations and beliefs of management of ISG concerning future events and their potential effects. Statements contained herein including words such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “contemplate,” “plan,” “estimate,” “target,” “expect,” “intend,” “will,” “continue,” “should,” “may,” and other similar expressions, are “forward-looking statements” under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Those risks relate to inherent business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies relating to the businesses of ISG and its subsidiaries including without limitation: (1) failure to secure new engagements or loss of important clients; (2) ability to hire and retain enough qualified employees to support operations; (3) ability to maintain or increase billing and utilization rates; (4) management of growth; (5) success of expansion internationally; (6) competition; (7) ability to move the product mix into higher margin businesses; (8) general political and social conditions such as war, political unrest and terrorism; (9) healthcare and benefit cost management; (10) ability to protect ISG and its subsidiaries’ intellectual property or data and the intellectual property or data of others; (11) currency fluctuations and exchange rate adjustments; (12) ability to successfully consummate or integrate strategic acquisitions; (13) outbreaks of diseases, including coronavirus, or similar public health threats or fear of such an event; and (14) engagements may be terminated, delayed or reduced in scope by clients. Certain of these and other applicable risks, cautionary statements and factors that could cause actual results to differ from ISG’s forward-looking statements are included in ISG’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. ISG undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
ISG reports all financial information required in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). In this release, ISG has presented both GAAP financial results as well as non-GAAP information for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2022, and December 31, 2021. ISG believes that evaluating its ongoing operating results will be enhanced if it discloses certain non-GAAP information. These non-GAAP financial measures exclude non-cash and certain other special charges that many investors believe may obscure the user’s overall understanding of ISG’s current financial performance and the Company’s prospects for the future. ISG believes that these non-GAAP measures provide useful information to investors because they improve the comparability of the financial results between periods and provide for greater transparency of key measures used to evaluate the Company’s performance.
ISG provides adjusted EBITDA (defined as net income plus interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, foreign currency transaction gains/losses, non-cash stock compensation, interest accretion associated with contingent consideration, acquisition-related costs, and severance, integration and other expense), adjusted net income (defined as net income plus amortization of intangible assets, non-cash stock compensation, foreign currency transaction gains/losses, interest accretion associated with contingent consideration, acquisition-related costs, and severance, integration and other expense, on a tax-adjusted basis), adjusted net income per diluted share, adjusted EBITDA margin, gross-debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA ratio and selected financial data on a constant currency basis which are non-GAAP measures that the Company believes provide useful information to both management and investors by excluding certain expenses and financial implications of foreign currency translations, which management believes are not indicative of ISG’s core operations. These non-GAAP measures are used by ISG to evaluate the Company’s business strategies and management’s performance.
We evaluate our results of operations on both an as reported and a constant currency basis. The constant currency presentation, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, excludes the impact of year-over-year fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates. We believe providing constant currency information provides valuable supplemental information regarding our results of operations, thereby facilitating period-to-period comparisons of our business performance and is consistent with how management evaluates the Company’s performance. We calculate constant currency percentages by converting our current and prior-periods local currency financial results using the same point in time exchange rates and then compare the adjusted current and prior period results. This calculation may differ from similarly titled measures used by others and, accordingly, the constant currency presentation is not meant to be a substitution for recorded amounts presented in conformity with GAAP, nor should such amounts be considered in isolation.
Management believes this information facilitates comparison of underlying results over time. Non-GAAP financial measures, when presented, are reconciled to the most closely applicable GAAP measure. Non-GAAP measures are provided as additional information and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of the forward-looking non-GAAP estimates contained herein to the corresponding GAAP measures is not being provided, due to the unreasonable efforts required to prepare it.
About ISG
ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 900 clients, including more than 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs 1,600 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For more information, visit www.isg-one.com.
ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For additional information, visit www.ISG-One.com
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
4Q22 Results. ISG reported record fourth quarter revenue of $74.2 million, up from $69.6 million in the year ago period. FX negatively impacted revenue by $3.2 million. We had estimated $71 million. Fourth quarter net income was $4.3 million, GAAP EPS was $0.09, and adjusted EPS was $0.13. Adjusted EBITDA was $11.1 million, a 9% increase year-over-year. We forecasted net income of $4.45 million, EPS of $0.09, adjusted EPS of $0.13, and adjusted EBITDA of $10.6 million.
Segment Results. Reported revenues were $43.6 million in the Americas, up 12%; $23.9 million in Europe, up 1% on a reported basis and up 12% in constant currency; and $6.7 million in Asia Pacific, down 4% on a reported basis and up 5% in constant currency, all versus the prior year.
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Blackboxstocks, Inc. is a financial technology and social media hybrid platform offering real-time proprietary analytics and news for stock and options traders of all levels. Our web-based software employs “predictive technology” enhanced by artificial intelligence to find volatility and unusual market activity that may result in the rapid change in the price of a stock or option. Blackbox continuously scans the NASDAQ, New York Stock Exchange, CBOE, and all other options markets, analyzing over 10,000 stocks and up to 1,500,000 options contracts multiple times per second. We provide our users with a fully interactive social media platform that is integrated into our dashboard, enabling our users to exchange information and ideas quickly and efficiently through a common network. We recently introduced a live audio/video feature that allows our members to broadcast on their own channels to share trade strategies and market insight within the Blackbox community. Blackbox is a SaaS company with a growing base of users that spans 42 countries; current subscription fees are $99.97 per month or $959.00 annually. For more information, go to: www.blackboxstocks.com .
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
New Partnership. On Friday, Blackboxstocks announced a partnership with Boosted.ai to enhance artificial intelligence within the Blackbox platform. The platform will be leveraging the partnership to provide actionable alerts for both day trading and long term investment strategies. The partnership will provide Blackboxstocks’ retail investors with sophisticated investment tools and strategies that were previously only available to institutional investors. We view the partnership as beneficial to the Blackbox platform for both new and existing users, along with being an additive to potential marketing to garner new users.
Who Is Boosted.ai? Boosted.ai helps institutional investors energize their equity portfolios with artificial intelligence. Through its point-and-click AI software – Boosted Insights – Boosted.ai assists asset managers in finding opportunities for their funds. Boosted Insights uses machine learning to empower fund managers to augment their investment process to source new ideas, manage risk, and create alpha.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Blackboxstocks, Inc. is a financial technology and social media hybrid platform offering real-time proprietary analytics and news for stock and options traders of all levels. Our web-based software employs “predictive technology” enhanced by artificial intelligence to find volatility and unusual market activity that may result in the rapid change in the price of a stock or option. Blackbox continuously scans the NASDAQ, New York Stock Exchange, CBOE, and all other options markets, analyzing over 10,000 stocks and up to 1,500,000 options contracts multiple times per second. We provide our users with a fully interactive social media platform that is integrated into our dashboard, enabling our users to exchange information and ideas quickly and efficiently through a common network. We recently introduced a live audio/video feature that allows our members to broadcast on their own channels to share trade strategies and market insight within the Blackbox community. Blackbox is a SaaS company with a growing base of users that spans 42 countries; current subscription fees are $99.97 per month or $959.00 annually. For more information, go to: www.blackboxstocks.com .
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
CEO Form 4. On February 27th, the SEC released a Form 4 filing by CEO Gust Kepler that reported Mr. Kepler’s purchase of 1,130,002 BLBX shares on February 23rd at a price of $3 per share. The purchased increased Mr. Kepler’s direct common stock holding to 3,462,070 shares. According to the Company, this was a private transaction not conducted on an exchange. Mr. Kepler also owned 3,269,998 Series A Preferred shares as of December 27, 2022 that can be converted into common shares.
Investor Reaction. On Monday, BLBX shares rose 47% to close at $0.81 on 16.8 million shares traded. Normal average daily volume is 554,000 shares and the last time BLBX shares traded consistently in the $3 level was back in 2021, excluding a one-time spike in the share price in April 2022.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Firm improves financial flexibility, eliminates mandatory annual principal payments under new all-revolver facility with more favorable terms, extended maturity date
STAMFORD, Conn.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Information Services Group (ISG) (Nasdaq: III), a leading global technology research and advisory firm, today announced it has successfully amended its $140 million credit facility at more favorable terms, to improve the firm’s financial flexibility.
The new credit agreement amends the previous agreement entered into on March 10, 2020. Key updates include:
Converting the previous term and revolving loan into an all-revolving credit facility
Eliminating $4.3 million of mandatory annual principal payments due in 2023 and 2024
Extending the maturity date of the previous agreement by three years, to February 2028
“Our amended credit facility greatly enhances our financial flexibility and offers further validation of our robust business performance that enabled these enhancements,” said Michael P. Connors, chairman and CEO of ISG. “We thank our lenders for their partnership and confidence in our ability to deliver long-term sustainable growth and value for our shareholders.”
BofA Securities Inc. was the Sole Lead Arranger and Sole Bookrunner on the transaction.
Additional details about the amended credit agreement can be found in the Form 8-K ISG filed today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, a link to which can be found on ISG’s website.
Forward-Looking Statements
This communication contains “forward-looking statements” which represent the current expectations and beliefs of management of ISG concerning future events and their potential effects. Statements contained herein including words such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “contemplate,” “plan,” “estimate,” “target,” “expect,” “intend,” “will,” “continue,” “should,” “may,” and other similar expressions, are “forward-looking statements” under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Those risks relate to inherent business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies relating to the businesses of ISG and its subsidiaries including without limitation: (1) failure to secure new engagements or loss of important clients; (2) ability to hire and retain enough qualified employees to support operations; (3) ability to maintain or increase billing and utilization rates; (4) management of growth; (5) success of expansion internationally; (6) competition; (7) ability to move the product mix into higher margin businesses; (8) general political and social conditions such as war, political unrest and terrorism; (9) healthcare and benefit cost management; (10) ability to protect ISG and its subsidiaries’ intellectual property or data and the intellectual property or data of others; (11) currency fluctuations and exchange rate adjustments; (12) ability to successfully consummate or integrate strategic acquisitions; (13) outbreaks of diseases, including coronavirus, or similar public health threats or fear of such an event; and (14) engagements may be terminated, delayed or reduced in scope by clients. Certain of these and other applicable risks, cautionary statements and factors that could cause actual results to differ from ISG’s forward-looking statements are included in ISG’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. ISG undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances.
About ISG
ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 800 clients, including 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For more information, visit www.isg-one.com.
Comtech Telecommunications Corp. engages in the design, development, production, and marketing of products, systems, and services for advanced communications solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Telecommunications Transmission, Mobile Data Communications, and RF Microwave Amplifiers. The Telecommunications Transmission segment provides satellite earth station equipment and systems, over-the-horizon microwave systems, and forward error correction technology, which are used in various commercial and government applications, including backhaul of wireless and cellular traffic, broadcasting (including HDTV), IP-based communications traffic, long distance telephony, and secure defense applications. The Mobile Data Communications segment provides mobile satellite transceivers, and computers and satellite earth station network gateways and associated installation, training, and maintenance services; supplies and operates satellite packet data networks, including arranging and providing satellite capacity; and offers microsatellites and related components. The RF Microwave Amplifiers segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets satellite earth station traveling wave tube amplifiers (TWTA) and broadband amplifiers. Its amplifiers are used in broadcast and broadband satellite communication; defense applications, such as telecommunications systems and electronic warfare systems; and commercial applications comprising oncology treatment systems, as well as to amplify signals carrying voice, video, or data for air-to-satellite-to-ground communications. The company serves satellite systems integrators, wireless and other communication service providers, broadcasters, defense contractors, military, governments, and oil companies. Comtech markets its products through independent representatives and value-added resellers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Investor Meetings. We hosted Comtech CEO Ken Peterman and CFO Michael Bondi for a series of investor meetings in South Florida last week. In the meetings, CEO Peterman outlined the current progress made and future opportunities under his strategy to right the ship and grow from there.
The Present. Management spent time reviewing the actions already taken in regard to implementing the ONE Comtech vision. We expect the initial benefits of bringing the Company under one roof, including cost savings, more efficient use of capital, and the capture of additional business, will begin to flow into operating results in a noticeable way during the second half of fiscal 2023.
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One Stop Systems, Inc. (OSS) designs and manufactures innovative AI Transportable edge computing modules and systems, including ruggedized servers, compute accelerators, expansion systems, flash storage arrays, and Ion Accelerator™ SAN, NAS, and data recording software for AI workflows. These products are used for AI data set capture, training, and large-scale inference in the defense, oil and gas, mining, autonomous vehicles, and rugged entertainment applications. OSS utilizes the power of PCI Express, the latest GPU accelerators and NVMe storage to build award-winning systems, including many industry firsts, for industrial OEMs and government customers. The company enables AI on the Fly® by bringing AI datacenter performance to ‘the edge,’ especially on mobile platforms, and by addressing the entire AI workflow, from high-speed data acquisition to deep learning, training, and inference. OSS products are available directly or through global distributors. For more information, go to www.onestopsystems.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Getting More Work. Yesterday, One Stop Systems announced the Company has received a $1.3 million contract from the U.S. Army to develop vehicle visualization systems. OSS will be working closely with the Army to deliver prototypes later in 2023. The announcement comes on the heels of the $3 million order last month, and further signifies the Company’s capabilities in military applications.
Details. The contract from the U.S. Army is for the design, development, and prototypes for a ruggedized compute visualization system. Using OSS PCIe Gen 4 switched fabric technology and NVIDIA Jetson AGX Orin system-on-modules, the system will be used to support 360-degree visualization for U.S. Army ground vehicles.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
One Stop Systems, Inc. (OSS) designs and manufactures innovative AI Transportable edge computing modules and systems, including ruggedized servers, compute accelerators, expansion systems, flash storage arrays, and Ion Accelerator™ SAN, NAS, and data recording software for AI workflows. These products are used for AI data set capture, training, and large-scale inference in the defense, oil and gas, mining, autonomous vehicles, and rugged entertainment applications. OSS utilizes the power of PCI Express, the latest GPU accelerators and NVMe storage to build award-winning systems, including many industry firsts, for industrial OEMs and government customers. The company enables AI on the Fly® by bringing AI datacenter performance to ‘the edge,’ especially on mobile platforms, and by addressing the entire AI workflow, from high-speed data acquisition to deep learning, training, and inference. OSS products are available directly or through global distributors. For more information, go to www.onestopsystems.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Passing the Torch. In an unexpected move, yesterday the CEO of One Stop Systems, David Raun, announced he is stepping down from the position effective upon the appointment of his successor. We had spoken with Mr. Raun earlier this week about the 2023 vision and he came across as extremely enthusiastic with OSS’s opportunity set, especially related to the defense industry. The company has yet to identify a successor but has retained a search firm to help the Company find a suitable replacement. Notably, Mr. Raun will continue to serve as a member of the company’s Board of Directors.
Defense Experience Valued. Mr. Raun’s decision to step aside appears related to a desire to bring in a CEO with a background in the defense industry, as the near term opportunity set for OSS is in this space. As mentioned in the release, Mr. Raun stated, “I feel it’s time to bring in new leadership with deep experience and high-level contacts in the defense sector to scale the opportunities and growth.”
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ: NEGG), founded in 2001 and based in the City of Industry, Calif., near Los Angeles, is a leading global online retailer for PC hardware, consumer electronics, gaming peripherals, home appliances, automotive and lifestyle technology. Newegg also serves businesses’ e-commerce needs with marketing, supply chain and technical solutions in a single platform. For more information, please visit Newegg.com.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating. We believe Newegg has a platform that is positioned to benefit from a fast-growing e-commerce vertical, namely, electronics. The company’s platforms serve both B2B and B2C customers on an international scale, reaching more than 20 countries. Moreover, the company has additional growth opportunities through expansion into other e-commerce verticals.
Growing e-commerce market. The global retail e-commerce market is expected to grow at 13.5% CAGR from 2019-2026. Notably, the North American technology e-commerce market, Newegg’s area of focus, is expected to grow even faster, at 25% CAGR over the same period.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
One Stop Systems, Inc. (OSS) designs and manufactures innovative AI Transportable edge computing modules and systems, including ruggedized servers, compute accelerators, expansion systems, flash storage arrays, and Ion Accelerator™ SAN, NAS, and data recording software for AI workflows. These products are used for AI data set capture, training, and large-scale inference in the defense, oil and gas, mining, autonomous vehicles, and rugged entertainment applications. OSS utilizes the power of PCI Express, the latest GPU accelerators and NVMe storage to build award-winning systems, including many industry firsts, for industrial OEMs and government customers. The company enables AI on the Fly® by bringing AI datacenter performance to ‘the edge,’ especially on mobile platforms, and by addressing the entire AI workflow, from high-speed data acquisition to deep learning, training, and inference. OSS products are available directly or through global distributors. For more information, go to www.onestopsystems.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
New Contract. One Stop Systems announced a new $3 million order from a prime military contractor. OSS commenced shipments in the fourth quarter of 2022, with the remaining units to be delivered in the first half of 2023. We view the announcement as further validation of OSS’s capabilities for military applications.
Details. Using its 4UV compute accelerator systems, OSS is upgrading a radar simulation system operated by the DoD Missile Defense Agency. The systems are being deployed in edge mobile radar systems and datacenters where they will be used for lab and field artificial intelligence training.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Overview:Will It Be A Happy New Year? The full impact of the recent increase in interest rates likely have not been fully reflected in the economy. But, many media stocks seem to anticipate that the industry is in a downturn now. Notably, some stocks have recently performed better and the current fundamentals are not falling off of a cliff.
Digital Media: Coming Off Of Its Sugar High?While Google now plans to phase out cookies in the second half of 2024, it is likely that the plan will affect 2023 as marketers and publishers prepare for the deprecation of cookies.
Television Broadcasting: A Watershed Year For Streaming. Streaming has now eclipsed both broadcast TV and cable TV in terms of viewing based on Nielsen data. Recently, Netflix launched a new pricing plan on November 3 which offers a basic tier, with advertising, at a low price point of $6.99. What does this mean for the TV industry?
Radio Broadcasting:Digital Is Bolstering Performance. It has been a bloodbath for Radio stocks, but the fundamentals appear better than the stock performance might suggest. Radio broadcasters with significant digital businesses are anticipated to report favorable pacings in Q1.
Publishing: You Are Golden If You Have Digital. The trouble with the largest newspaper company, Gannett, has created a pall over the group as it struggles to cut expenses. But, companies with substantial digital operations have performed well. We highlight one of our current favorites Lee Enterprises (LEE).
Overview
Will It Be A Happy New Year?
2022 was one of the worse for media stock performance in recent memory, with stocks across traditional and digital media sectors down over 40% or more. Media stocks underperformed the general market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, which was down a more moderate 19.4% on a comparable basis for the full year 2022. It is typical for media stocks to underperform in a late-stage economic cycle or in the midst of an economic downturn. But, the significant stock declines are stunning. Macro-economic issues including inflation, rising interest rates, and the prospect of a looming economic downturn, all contributed to the poor performance.
The question is “will 2023 be better?” We believe so. There has been recent signs of life. The S&P 500 increased by 7% during the fourth quarter of 2022, marking the first time the Index had increased since fourth quarter of 2021. Notably, the Noble Publishing and Noble MarTech Indices outperformed the general market in the latest quarter. But, the full impact of the recent interest rate increase likely have not been reflected in the economy. Many media stocks seem to anticipate an economic downturn, but current fundamentals do not appear to be in a freefall and may be better than expected. If the economy further deteriorates from the recent or future rate hikes, it appears now that it may adversely affect the second half of 2023. Advertising pacings appear to be holding up well so far in the first half 2023. Notably, media stocks may begin to anticipate an improving economic outlook and overlook the weak fundamental environment in the second half.
Conventional thought anticipates that increasing concerns over an economic recession may prompt mortgage rates to trend lower in 2023. Furthermore, it is possible that the Fed may lower interest rates if inflation moderates, although the Fed is not currently anticipating rate decreases in 2023. Nonetheless, this paints a favorable picture for media stocks in 2023. Traditionally, the best time to buy media stocks is in the midst of an economic downturn. In addition, these consumer cyclical stocks tend to be among the first movers in an early-stage economic cycle and tend to perform well in a moderating interest rate environment. As mentioned earlier, the stocks may currently be oversold given the prospect that the current fundamental
environment is better anticipated.
What is the risk to this favorable outlook? We believe that the resurging Chinese economy may be disruptive. Within the last month, the China’s economy has been reopened from Covid lockdowns, which may put pressure on global energy prices. Such a prospect may make our fight on inflation more stubborn to combat, potentially throwing off our favorable outlook for moderating interest rates. In our view, we are closer to the light at the end of the tunnel than we were last year. Given the prospect that these stocks tend to outperform the market in an early stage economic recovery, we believe it is time for investors to accumulate positions in the media sectors. In this quarterly, we highlight some of our favorite plays in the Digital, Media & Technology space.
Digital Media & Technology
A Year To Forget
While there were signs of life in the fourth quarter of 2022 for the Internet and Digital Media sectors, 2022 was a year most investors in these sectors would like to forget. As Figure #1 LTM Internet & Digital Technology Performance illustrates, every one of these sectors substantially underperformed the S&P 500 last year. The S&P 500 Index finished the year down 19% which was substantially better than Noble’s Digital Media Index (-41%), MarTech Index (-52%), Social Media Index (-63%), and Ad Tech Index (-63%). Rather than focus on the stocks that significantly underperformed their respective Indices (and there are many), we would rather focus on the three stocks that finished 2022 up for the year.
The shares of one of our favorites, Harte Hanks (HHS)increased by 53% in 2022. The company continued its multi-year turnaround from a highly levered and unprofitable business (in 2019), to a double digit EBITDA margin business with a debt-free balance sheet. Furthermore, we believe that many of the company’s business lines have recession resilient qualities. The other stocks that performed well are Tencent (TME), whichincreased by 21%in 2022. Shares declined earlier in the year as China’s economy slowed as it maintained its Zero Covid-19 lockdowns, but surged in the fourth quarter as it appeared that the company would enjoy an increase in demand as China begins easing Covid restrictions. Finally, the shares of Perion Networks (PERI) increased by 5% in 2022 as Perion consistently beat expectation and raised its guidance throughout 2022. In the first week of 2023, the company once again pre-announced better than expected results for the fourth quarter, and shares are already up 14% since the start of the new year.
As Figure #2 Q4 Internet & Digital Technology Performancehighlights, there has been signs of life in Noble’s MarTech Index which increased 6%, roughly in-line with the market. In Noble’s MarTech Index, 11 of the 22 stocks in the index posted gains, led by Yext (YEXT; +46%), Shopify (SHOP; +29%), LiveRamp (RAMP; +29%) and Adobe (ADBE; +22%). This marks significant improvement from last quarter when only 4 of the sectors’ stocks finished the quarter in positive territory. MarTech stocks have suffered from a market reset to revenue multiples that began when the Fed began raising rates. MarTech share price declines in the first, second and third quarters of 2022 were mostly driven by multiple compression as investors rotated out of high-flying tech sectors where companies had chased growth at all costs (at the expense of profitability). Only 7 of the MarTech companies in the Index posted positive EBITDA in the latest quarter. Laggards during the fourth quarter were Noble’s Digital Media Index (-5%), Social Media Index (-7%) and Ad Tech Index (-20%).
Coming Off Of A Sugar High?
One of the largest issues affecting the Digital Media industry in 2023 will be the phase out of the use of third-party cookies. Cookies were used to track a user visits on internet sites and that data was used to model behavior. The industry has moved away from the use of cookies as governments and consumers have raised concerns over privacy issues and as consumers wanted more control over how their data is used. Governments have taken a more active role in protecting consumer privacy. California, Colorado, Connecticut, Utah, and Virginia have passed privacy laws. It is likely that there will be a federal privacy law at some point.
How will this affect the industry? We believe that there has been plenty of time to “work around” this issue. The implementation of the phase out of cookies has been delayed several times, originally announced by Google in 2020. Google now plans to phased out cookies in the second half of 2024, if it is not delayed again. As marketers and publishers prepare for the deprecation of cookies, digital advertising likely will be begin to affect 2023.
Digital Advertising Outlook for 2023
Last October eMarketer revised lower its 2023 U.S. digital advertising forecast by $5.5 billion, from $284.1 billion to $278.6 billion. While this sounds like a substantial drop in percentage terms, the 2023 guidance was lowered from 14% growth to 12% growth. Most of the global ad agencies expect digital to continue to grow by double digits driven with dollars migrating to such digital ad channels as retail media and connected TV. Both sectors continue to demonstrate impressive growth.
Retail Media – A retail media network is a retailer-owned advertising service that allows marketers to purchase advertising space across all digital assets owned by a retail business, using the retailer’s first-party data to connect with shoppers throughout the buying journey. eMarketer forecasts that retail media ad spending grew by 31% last year to $41 billion and will grow to $61 billion over the next two years, by which time it will equate to 20% of digital advertising. The leaders in retail media are Amazon, Walmart and Instacart.
Through a retail media network, partners (advertisers) get direct access to a retailer’s customers. The benefit to the partners/advertisers is that they get access to first party data. Retailers own and store this data and allow advertisers to access them through their retail media programs. The first party data is valuable because it is collected at the point of sale allowing brands to get better insights into purchase behavior. Traditional retailers are beginning to follow suit. Traditional retailers with the largest digital audiences (per comScore) are Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowes, CVS, Walgreens, Costco and Kohls.
On January 10th, Microsoft announced that it intended to create the industry’s most complete omnichannel retail media technology stack supported by its Promote IQ platform, a company Microsoft acquired in 2019. We expect companies that serve the retail media sector from an Ad Tech or Mar Tech standpoint are poised to benefit from secular trends in this sector.
Connected TV (CTV) – Last July, Nielsen announced that for the first time U.S. streaming TV viewership was larger than cable TV viewing. In July 2022, eMarketer forecast that CTV advertising would reach $18.9 billion in 2022. However, in October 2022, eMarketer raised its forecast for CTV advertising by $2.3 billion to $21.2 billion in 2022. In October, the forecaster also raised its 2023 CTV advertising forecast by $3 billion to $26.9 billion, up from $23.9 billion in the July 2022 forecast. The big increase is due primarily to Netflix and Disney+ announcing they were launching ad supported tiers to their streaming offerings. Ad Tech or Mar Tech companies that serve this market are also poised to benefit from secular viewing trends and the advertising dollars that are migrating to these platforms, discussed later in this report.
The ability to target specific audiences and measure specific outcomes tied to the ads that viewers watched, has made CTV a force to be reckoned with, particularly for those advertisers that are never quite sure which advertising mediums provide the highest returns. Historically, TV was a mass medium used by large brands that wanted massive reach. CTV has opened the door to a wider variety of advertisers that are looking to reach more targeted, even niche, audiences. According to MNTN, a connected TV performance marketing platform, many CTV advertisers are first-time TV advertisers. With new FAST (Free Ad-Supported Streaming TV) channels coming online every month, there is no shortage of supply coming to market. This is just one reason why eMarketer predicts CTV advertising to grow by $10+ billion over the next two years and reach nearly $32 billion in advertising revenue in 2024.
As we look toward 2023, our current favorites include Harte Hanks (HHS) and Direct Digital (DRCT). In terms of Harte Hanks, we believe that the company has recession resilient qualities and that the company’s balance sheet is in a sound position. Furthermore, given the recent rising interest rate environment, the company’s unfunded pension liabilities have dramatically improved. The company may have the opportunity to further mitigate its pension liabilities in 2023. Figure #3 Marketing Tech Comparables highlights, the shares of HHS are trading well below its peers. We believe that there is meaningful upside potential in the shares as it closes the valuation gap with its peers.
While the deprecation of cookies has created a pall over the sector, we believe that Direct Digital has worked with its Publishers to mitigate this issue. In addition, the company is a relatively small player in a very large marketplace. As such, we believe that the company has the ability to attractively grow in 2023. In our view, the shares appear to be oversold given the continuation of favorable advertising trends. Figure #4 Advertising Tech Comparables illustrates that the DRCT shares trade below the average valuation in its Advertising Marketing peer set. In our view, the valuation should be higher than the averages given that the company has leading industry revenue growth. Closing this valuation gap offers compelling stock appreciation potential.
Figure #1 LTM Internet & Digital Technology Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Figure #2 Q4 Internet & Digital Technology Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Marketing Technology
Figure #3 Marketing Tech Comparables
Source: Eikon, Company filings and Noble estimates
Figure #4 Advertising Tech Comparables
Source: Eikon, Company filings and Noble estimates
Traditional Media
Another Quarter Of Moderating Stock Performance
Traditional media stocks underperformed the general market in 2022, with the Radio sector the hardest hit. As Figure #5 LTM Traditional Media Performance Chart illustrates, the Noble Radio Index declined 63.8% versus 19.4% for the general market, as measured by the S&P 500, in a comparable time period. Television and Publishing stocks were down 23.2% and 25.4%, respectively, more in line with the general market returns. But, there were notable company stock performance disparities within each sector, highlighted later in this report. Larger market capitalized companies performed better, which skewed the market cap weighted Indices.
The traditional media stocks seemed to have stabilized from the rapid declines earlier in the year. Possible signs of life in the traditional media sector as well? As Figure #6 Q4 Traditional Media Performance highlights, the Publishing sector once again outperformed the general market in the quarter. The Noble Television Index declined 3.2%, but this decline moderated from the 10.1% decline in the third quarter. The Radio industry still has not yet stabilized, with the Noble Radio Index down 15.4% in the latest quarter.
Figure #5 LTM Traditional Media Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Figure #6 Q4 Traditional Media Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Television Broadcast
Will Netflix suck the air out of the room?
Netflix launched a new pricing plan on November 3 which offers a basic tier, with advertising, at a low price point of $6.99. This compares with its previous tiers of $9.99 and $19.99 for advertising free streaming. While reports indicate that the advertising platform is off to a slow start, we believe that the Netflix move could be disruptive to the Broadcast Television Network business as its lower price basic service gains traction. It is likely that there will be some cannibalization from its higher pricing tier, but we believe that the move will broaden its subscriber base. While Netflix has not considered offering live sports on its streaming platform given the cost of sports rights, we believe that the potential success of its subscription/advertising tier may provide a platform to upend that decision. There is a strong tailwind for viewership trends on streaming platforms, which now exceed that of broadcast television viewing. A decision to enter sports will be a big deal and disruptive to Network broadcasting.
Streaming viewership not only eclipsed television viewing in July 2022, but also that of cable viewing, 34.8% versus 34.4%. In addition, based on the latest Nielsen data from November 2022, streaming now accounts for 38.2% of total viewing with Broadcast at 25.7% and cable at 31.8%. Figure #7 Viewership illustrates the November viewership data. While TV viewership increased 7.8% in November, largely due to sports content, streaming usage year over year was up more than 41%.
Figure #7 Viewership
Source: Nielsen Media Insights
Scripps Plans To Expand Sports
The declining cable subscriptions and cable viewership, especially on regional sports networks, led E.W. Scripps to launch a new Scripps Sports division. This division plans to seek broadcast rights from teams and leagues and bring that programming to broadcast television. The company plans to obtain rights either in local TV markets where it can partner with the the teams or on a national basis, utilizing its distribution on its Ion Network. It is important to note that ION is unique from other networks. Ion’s distribution is nearly 100% of the US television market given that it has local licenses and local towers in every market, it is fully distributed on cable and satellite, and is offered over the air. As such, we believe that Scripps offers a unique proposition to sports teams interested in building its audiences.
Will ATSC 3.0 Stream The Tide?
Furthermore, the broadcast industry appears to be more aggressively ramping its own streaming capabilities with the rollout of its new broadcast standard, ATSC 3.0. ATSC 3.0 is built on the same Internet Protocol as other streaming platforms, and, as such, broadcast programming and internet content can be accessible in the car, on mobile devices, as well as in the home. Importantly, the new standard can handle signal shifting, like if you were moving in a car, and the signal is more robust so you may be able to pick up more stations in a local market. While there are many opportunities for the new standard, services and offerings are still being developed. But, it offers promising opportunities for broadcasters to compete with streaming services in the future. We expect that the industry will make more announcements about this promising technology at future events, including the upcoming NAB Show, April 16-19 in Las Vegas, NV.
Are We In A Recession?
In our view, the current fundamentals may be better than the stocks project. Advertising seems to be holding up, post political advertising. As Figure #8 TV Q3 YoY Revenue Growth highlights, most companies in the industry reported strong Q3 revenue growth, influenced by a large influx of Political advertising. Figure #9 TV Q3 EBITDA Margins illustrates that the largest broadcasters, particularly Nexstar, has the largest EBITDA margins. Notably, the two stocks with the highest revenue growth in the quarter, Entravision and E.W. Scripps, performed the best in the fourth quarter, discussed later.
Notably, Local advertising appears to be fairing better than National advertising. Based on our estimates, core local advertising is expected to be down in the range of 5% to 8%, with core National down as much as the double digits. We believe that some large advertising categories like Auto, Retail and Home Improvement will show improving trends. The first quarter 2023 appears to be consistent with the fourth quarter. Smaller market TV likely will perform at the lower end of the range, while larger market TV will be at the higher end (greater core revenue decline). Broadcast Network is another story, which we believe is weak. Network has potential heightened competition. Figure #8 TV Q3 YoY Revenue Growth
Source: Eikon and Company filings
Figure #9 TV Q3 EBITDA Margins
Source: Eikon and Company filings
As mentioned earlier, the Noble Television Broadcast Index declined 3.2% in the latest quarter, underperforming the general market’s 7.2% advance. Importantly, the 3.2% decline in valuations was a moderation from the 10.1% decline in the third quarter. There were variances in the performance and some notable performers including two of our favorites: E.W. Scripps, which increased 5.8% and Entravision, which increase 5.3%. Both of these companies were among the strongest revenue performers in the third quarter. Among the poor performers was Gray Television, down a significant 33.7% and Sinclair Broadcasting, down 24.0%. With the TV stocks down a significant 23.2% for the year, have the stocks already assumed that the industry is in an economic downturn? We believe that the stock may be oversold based on the prospect that advertising is currently holding up in the first quarter.
Is There Room For Upside?
As Figure # 10 TV Industry Comparables highlight, most TV stocks are trading in a tight range of each other. The biggest variance in stock valuations is our current favorite Entravision, trading at 5.9 times EV to our 2023 EBITDA estimate, well below that of its industry peers which trade on average at 7.7 times. We believe that Entravision, which has migrated to become a leading Digital Media company which contributes roughly 80% of its total company revenues, should trade at a premium to its broadcast peers, rather than at a discount. Investors appear to be somewhat confused by the company’s relatively low EBITDA margins, which is a function of how revenues are accounted for in its Digital Media Division. We would also note that its financial profile is among the best in the industry, with a large cash position and modest net debt position of $86 million. As such, EVC leads our favorites in this sector.
Figure #10 TV Industry Comparables
Source: Eikon, Company filings and Nobles estimates
Radio Broadcast
Digital Is Bolstering Performance
The radio industry index was the worst performing index in the traditional media segment, declining 15.4% in the quarter and 63.8% for the year. The radio industry is feeling the pressure that recessionary concerns place on the demand for advertising. In addition to increased competition for audiences from digital music providers and shifting advertising dollars from radio to a more targeted advertising medium, digital media.
Figure #11 Radio Industry Q3 YoY Revenue Growth chart illustrates the year over year change in revenue for the third quarter. Urban One and Townsquare Media top their peers with revenue growth of 8.9% and 8.4%, respectively. A common theme with companies at the top of the list are diversified revenue streams. Salem Media and Beasley Broadcast Group are in the middle of the pack and are both taking steps to further diversify revenue. Salem has diversified into content creation and digital media and Beasley is continuing to pursue digital agency model. The median Q3 revenue growth rate was 1.5%, and the average revenue growth was -1%. The Average growth rate of -1% is skewed due to the poor performance of Medico holdings. In previous quarters Medico benefited from Covid-19 vaccine advertising campaigns and ticket sales for an annual outdoor live event that took place in Q3 of 2021. Without Covid vaccine advertising and Medico’s concert being held in Q2 2022 instead of Q3 resulted in revenue declining 33.6% on a year over year basis.
Industry adj. EBITDA margins were healthy, as Figure #12 Radio Industry Q3 EBITDA margins illustrates, Urban one, Townsquare Media and Iheart Media top the list with adj. EBITDA margins of 30.6%, 25.6% and 25.5%, respectively.
After the 2022 calendar year ended, Moody’s downgraded Cumulus Media’s Corporate Family Rating to B3 from B2. Moody’s believes Cumulus Media will face a further decline in advertising demand as the economy weakens. Moody’s could upgrade its rating if leverage decreases to 5x as a result of positive performance and could downgrade its rating if leverage ratio increases to 7x as a result of poor performance. It should be noted that Cumulus has a large cash position of $118 million and could access an additional $100 million through an asset backed loan.
However, there are several companies in the Radio industry with improving leverage profiles. Moreover, we believe that radio companies are diversifying traditional revenue streams with digital revenue. In our view, companies that achieved a greater degree of digital transformation and are better shielded from macroeconomic headwinds. Figure #13 Radio Industry Comparables highlights, Townsquare Media, Cumulus Media, and Salem Media are among the cheapest in the group. For those companies with substantial digital media businesses that are growing rapidly, like Townsquare Media and Beasley, we believe that advertising pacings in the first quarter are likely to be positive. On the low end pacings are expected to be flat to plus 3% and may even be stronger, up 8% or more in the second quarter (although this is too early to bank). In our view, advertising for these companies do not appear to be falling off of a cliff as the stocks seem to project. As such, we believe that the Radio sector appears to be in an oversold position and should have some upside prospects in 2023. Our favorites include TSQ, SALM, BBGI, and CMLS.
Figure #11 Radio Industry Q3 YoY Revenue Growth
Source: Eikon and Company filings
Figure #12 Radio Industry Q3 EBITDA Margins
Source: Eikon and Company filings
Figure #13 Radio Industry Comparables
Source: Eikon, Company filings and Nobles estimates
Publishing
Illustrated above in Figure #6 Q4 Traditional Media Performance, the Publishing stocks had a pretty good quarter, up 17.9% as measured by the Noble Publishing Index versus the general market as measured by the S&P 500 Index up 7.1%. But the largest stocks in the index, New York Times and News Corp, were the only stocks that were up in the sector. Given that the Noble Publishing Index is market cap weighted, it was the reason that the Index was up in the quarter. Importantly, one of our favorites, Lee Enterprises was down a very modest 2.3% in the quarter. Again, the relatively favorable performance of the index was primarily due to its largest constituents, News Corp. and The New York Times, which rebounded from -29.7% and -39.1%, respectively in Q2, to -3% and +3%, respectively, in Q3 and then up 16.8% and 16.3%, respectively, in Q4.
We believe that Gannett, the nation’s largest newspaper company, continues to create a pall over the publishing group as it continues to struggle to manage cash flows with its heavy debt burden. In August, the company announced a round of lay offs of 400 employees and then announced another 200 in December. We believe that the company is trying to shore up its cash flow amidst a weak fundamental environment. Not surprisingly, the GCI shares were among the worse performers in the sector in the latest quarter, down 30%. To a large extent, the stock performance in the latest quarter reflected the various company results in Q3.
As Figure #14 Publishing Industry Q3 YoY Revenue Performance chart illustrates, Q3 publishing revenue declined on average 1.1%, which excludes the strong revenue growth of the Daily Journal. The company benefited from its Journal Technologies consulting fees which bolstered revenues in its fiscal Q4 results. In addition, during the year, the company sold marketable securities for roughly $80.6 million, realizing net gains of $14.2 million. As such, we have backed out the extraordinary results of the Daily Journal from our industry averages. Notably, Gannett had the weakest revenue performance in the latest quarter, down 10%.
The notable exceptions to the overall weak industry revenue performance was The New York Times, up 7.5% in Q3 revenues, which reflected a moderation in revenue growth from the prior quarter of an increase of 11.5%. News Corp, declined 1%, which was well below the 7.3% gain in the prior quarter. Importantly, Lee Enterprises fiscal quarter revenue was down a modest 0.2%, a sequential improvement from the modest 0.7% decrease in the prior fiscal quarter. We believe that Lee’s digital strategy continues to gain traction and that the company is very close to an inflection point toward revenue growth. We continue to note that Lee’s digital subscriptions currently lead the industry. The company has exceeded all of its peers in terms of digital subscription growth in the past 11 consecutive quarters. Furthermore, over 50% of its advertising is derived from digital. Currently, roughly 30% of the company total revenues are derived from Digital, still short of the 55% at The New York Times, but closing the gap.
Not only is Lee performing well on the Digital revenue front, it has industry leading margins. As Figure #15 Publishing Industry Q3 EBITDA Margins illustrates, Lee’s Q3 EBITDA margins were industry leading at 16.7%, again, excluding the extraordinary results at the Daily Journal which benefited from marketable securities trading. We believe that Lee’s margins are notable given that it demonstrates that the company is managing its margins in spite of the investments in its Digital Media businesses. Its margins place it on pare with its Digital Media focused peers, such as the New York Times.
As Figure #16 Publishing Industry Comparables chart illustrates, the LEE shares trade at an average industry multiple of 5.7 times Enterprise Value to our 2023 adj. EBITDA estimate. Notably, the company is closing the gap with its Digital Media revenue contribution to that of New York Times. The New York Times carries a significantly higher stock valuation, currently trading at an estimated 15.8 times EV to 2023 adj. EBITDA. We believe that the valuation gap with the New York Times should close. As such, we view the LEE shares as among our favorites in the industry.
Figure #14 Publishing Industry Q3 YoY Revenue Growth
Source: Eikon and Company filings
Figure #15 Publishing Industry Q3 EBITDA Margins
Source: Eikon and Company filings
Figure #16 Publishing Industry Comparables
Source: Eikon, Company filings and Nobles estimates.
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ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE
Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis. Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.” FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87
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RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION
Independence Of View All views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers.
Receipt of Compensation No part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or views expressed in the public appearance and/or research report.
Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest Neither I nor anybody in my household has a financial interest in the securities of the subject company or any other company mentioned in this report.
TAAL Distributed Information Technologies Inc. delivers value-added blockchain services, providing professional-grade, highly scalable blockchain infrastructure and transactional platforms to support businesses building solutions and applications upon the BitcoinSV platform, and developing, operating, and managing distributed computing systems for enterprise users.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Terminating Research Coverage. As expected, TAAL announced the completion of the previously announced plan to take the Company private. Calvin Ayre has acquired all of the remaining TAALF common shares and now owns 100%. The transaction was approved by the Ontario Superior Court of Justice on December 21st. TAALF common shares will be de-listed from the Canadian Securities Exchange no later than the close of business on December 23, 2022. As a result, we are terminating research coverage of TAAL Distributed Information Technologies. Effective upon termination of coverage, investors should no longer rely on any of our prior research, financial estimates, or ratings for the Company.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Voyager Digital Ltd.’s (TSX: VOYG) (OTCQX: VYGVF) (FRA: UCD2) US subsidiary, Voyager Digital, LLC, is a fast-growing cryptocurrency platform in the United States founded in 2018 to bring choice, transparency, and cost-efficiency to the marketplace. Voyager offers a secure way to trade over 100 different crypto assets using its easy-to-use mobile application. Through its subsidiary Coinify ApS, Voyager provides crypto payment solutions for both consumers and merchants around the globe. To learn more about the company, please visit https://www.investvoyager.com.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Going for Binance. Yesterday, Voyager announced that the Company selected Binance.US as the highest and best bid for the Company’s assets. The decision came after a review of strategic options with the core objective of maximizing value returned to customers and creditors. Previously, the best bid was from FTX US, but due to its current bankruptcy, FTX was not able to proceed with the bid.
Additional Details. The bid from Binance.US was for $1.022 billion comprised of the fair market value of Voyager’s cryptocurrency portfolio at a to-be-determined date in the future, which at current market prices is estimated to be $1.002 billion, plus additional consideration equal to $20 million of incremental value. The previous winning bid, FTX US, was for $1.422 billion. A $10 million good faith deposit will be made by Binance.US and will reimburse Voyager for certain expenses up to $15 million.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
