Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and $5 price target. SelectQuote (NYSE: SLQT) is an insurance distribution and healthcare services organization, which is positioned to benefit from a growing population of Medicare beneficiaries. In our view, the company’s unique combination of health insurance distribution and home-direct pharmacy services represents an opportunity to drive high value per customer in a cost efficient manner. Our favorable rating reflects a strong revenue growth outlook with improving cash flow generation.
Synergistic business model. The company’s health insurance distribution (primarily Medicare Advantage policies) and home-direct pharmacy businesses largely share a target customer base. This allows the company to economize on customer acquisition costs for its two largest segments. Taken together, the two business segments generated a revenue/customer acquisition cost (CAC) multiple of 4.2x over the trailing 12 months (as of December 31, 2023).
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Second Quarter of Fiscal Year 2024 – Consolidated Earnings Highlights
Revenue of $405.4 million
Net income of $19.4 million
Adjusted EBITDA* of $67.4 million
Raising Fiscal Year 2024 Guidance Ranges:
Revenue expected in a range of $1.23 billion to $1.3 billion vs prior range of $1.05 billion to $1.2 billion
Net loss expected in a range of $45 million to $22 million vs prior range of $50 million to $22 million
Adjusted EBITDA* expected in a range of $90 million to $105 million vs prior range of $80 million to $105 million
Second Quarter of Fiscal Year 2024 – Segment Highlights
Senior
Revenue of $247.5 million
Adjusted EBITDA* of $78.7 million
Approved Medicare Advantage policies of 234,576
Healthcare Services
Revenue of $111.7 million
Adjusted EBITDA* of $3.0 million
Over 62,000 SelectRx members
Life
Revenue of $37.4 million
Adjusted EBITDA* of $4.6 million
Auto & Home
Revenue of $10.5 million
Adjusted EBITDA* of $4.7 million
OVERLAND PARK, Kan.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– SelectQuote, Inc. (NYSE: SLQT) reported consolidated revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024 of $405.4 million, compared to consolidated revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2023 of $319.2 million. Consolidated net income for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024 was $19.4 million, compared to consolidated net income for the second quarter of fiscal year 2023 of $22.5 million. Finally, consolidated Adjusted EBITDA* for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024 was $67.4 million, compared to consolidated Adjusted EBITDA* for the second quarter of fiscal year 2023 of $63.6 million.
Chief Executive Officer Tim Danker stated, “The second quarter marked SelectQuote’s eighth consecutive quarter of performance ahead of expectations, and we remain confident that our strategy to prioritize predictable and cash efficient growth will continue to generate value for both our customers and shareholders. We are also pleased with our progress on operating cash flow and now anticipate that SelectQuote will approach positive free cash flow in fiscal 2024.”
“SelectQuote drove strong results throughout the annual enrollment period for Medicare Advantage where our Senior business grew revenues by double digits, and our second quarter Adjusted EBITDA margin of 32% remains attractive. These strong Senior operating results were a function of higher tenured agent productivity and solid policyholder persistency, which we expect to benefit SelectQuote in the open enrollment period as well.”
“Additionally, Healthcare Services, and our SelectRx business specifically, drove substantial growth in excess of our original forecast. As of the end of the second quarter, SelectRx members have surpassed 62,000, which is in excess of our original expectation for the full year. More importantly, the business was again Adjusted EBITDA profitable.”
Mr. Danker continued, “We are pleased to increase our fiscal year 2024 outlook based on the strength of both businesses year-to-date.”
Segment Results
We currently report on four segments: 1) Senior, 2) Healthcare Services, 3) Life, and 4) Auto & Home. The performance measures of the segments include total revenue, Adjusted EBITDA,* and Adjusted EBITDA Margin.* Costs of revenue, cost of goods sold-pharmacy revenue, marketing and advertising, selling, general, and administrative, and technical development operating expenses that are directly attributable to a segment are reported within the applicable segment. Indirect costs of revenue, marketing and advertising, selling, general, and administrative, and technical development operating expenses are allocated to each segment based on varying metrics such as headcount. Adjusted EBITDA is calculated as total revenue for the applicable segment less direct and allocated costs of revenue, cost of goods sold, marketing and advertising, technical development, and selling, general, and administrative operating costs and expenses, excluding depreciation and amortization expense; gain or loss on disposal of property, equipment, and software; share-based compensation expense; and non-recurring expenses such as severance payments and transaction costs.
Combined Senior and Healthcare Services – Consumer Per Unit Economics
The opportunity to leverage our existing database and distribution model to improve access to healthcare services for our consumers has created a need for us to review our key metrics related to our per unit economics. As we think about the revenue and expenses for Healthcare Services, we note that they are derived from the marketing acquisition costs associated with the sale of an MA or MS policy, some of which costs are allocated directly to Healthcare Services, and therefore determined that our per unit economics measure should include components from both Senior and Healthcare Services. See details of revenue and expense items included in the calculation below.
Combined Senior and Healthcare Services consumer per unit economics represents total MA and MS commissions; other product commissions; other revenues, including revenues from Healthcare Services; and operating expenses associated with Senior and Healthcare Services, each shown per number of approved MA and MS policies over a given time period. Management assesses the business on a per-unit basis to help ensure that the revenue opportunity associated with a successful policy sale is attractive relative to the marketing acquisition cost. Because not all acquired leads result in a successful policy sale, all per-policy metrics are based on approved policies, which is the measure that triggers revenue recognition.
The MA and MS commission per MA/MS policy represents the LTV for policies sold in the period. Other commission per MA/MS policy represents the LTV for other products sold in the period, including DVH prescription drug plan, and other products, which management views as additional commission revenue on our agents’ core function of MA/MS policy sales. Pharmacy revenue per MA/MS policy represents revenue from SelectRx, and other revenue per MA/MS policy represents revenue from Population Health, production bonuses, marketing development funds, lead generation revenue, and adjustments from the Company’s reassessment of its cohorts’ transaction prices. Total operating expenses per MA/MS policy represents all of the operating expenses within Senior and Healthcare Services. The revenue to customer acquisition cost (“CAC”) multiple represents total revenue as a multiple of total marketing acquisition costs, which represents the direct costs of acquiring leads. These costs are included in marketing and advertising expense within the total operating expenses per MA/MS policy.
The following table shows combined Senior and Healthcare Services consumer per unit economics for the periods presented. Based on the seasonality of Senior and the fluctuations between quarters, we believe that the most relevant view of per unit economics is on a rolling 12-month basis. All per MA/MS policy metrics below are based on the sum of approved MA/MS policies, as both products have similar commission profiles.
Total revenue per MA/MS policy increased 37% for the twelve months ended December 31, 2023, compared to the twelve months ended December 31, 2022, primarily due to the increase in pharmacy revenue. Total operating expenses per MA/MS policy increased 23% for the twelve months ended December 31, 2023, compared to the twelve months ended December 31, 2022, driven by a 100% increase in operating expenses related to SelectRx due to the growth of the business, offset by a 3% decrease in other operating expenses driven by a decrease in marketing and advertising costs for the second half of fiscal year 2023 compared to the second half of fiscal year 2022.
*See “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” below.
Earnings Conference Call
SelectQuote, Inc. will host a conference call with the investment community today, Wednesday, February 7, 2024, beginning at 8:30 a.m. ET. To register for this conference call, please use this link: https://www.netroadshow.com/events/login?show=3bad4d79&confId=59966. After registering, a confirmation will be sent via email, including dial-in details and unique conference call codes for entry. Registration is open through the live call, but to ensure you are connected for the full call we suggest registering at least 10 minutes before the start of the call. The event will also be webcasted live via our investor relations website https://ir.selectquote.com/investor-home/default.aspx.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
This release includes certain non-GAAP financial measures intended to supplement, not substitute for, comparable GAAP measures. To supplement our financial statements presented in accordance with GAAP and to provide investors with additional information regarding our GAAP financial results, we have presented in this release Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin, which are non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP financial measures are not based on any standardized methodology prescribed by GAAP and are not necessarily comparable to similarly titled measures presented by other companies. We define Adjusted EBITDA as income (loss) before interest expense, income tax expense (benefit), depreciation and amortization, and certain add-backs for non-cash or non-recurring expenses, including restructuring and share-based compensation expenses. The most directly comparable GAAP measure is net income (loss). We define Adjusted EBITDA Margin as Adjusted EBITDA divided by revenue. The most directly comparable GAAP measure is net income margin. We monitor and have presented in this release Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin because they are key measures used by our management and Board of Directors to understand and evaluate our operating performance, to establish budgets and to develop operational goals for managing our business. In particular, we believe that excluding the impact of these expenses in calculating Adjusted EBITDA can provide a useful measure for period-to-period comparisons of our core operating performance.
We believe that these non-GAAP financial measures help identify underlying trends in our business that could otherwise be masked by the effect of the expenses that we exclude in the calculations of these non-GAAP financial measures. Accordingly, we believe these financial measures provide useful information to investors and others in understanding and evaluating our operating results, enhancing the overall understanding of our past performance and future prospects. Reconciliations of the differences between the non-GAAP financial measures included herein and their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are set forth below beginning on page 12.
Forward Looking Statements
This release contains forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements reflect our current views with respect to, among other things, future events and our financial performance. These statements are often, but not always, made through the use of words or phrases such as “may,” “should,” “could,” “predict,” “potential,” “believe,” “will likely result,” “expect,” “continue,” “will,” “anticipate,” “seek,” “estimate,” “intend,” “plan,” “projection,” “would” and “outlook,” or the negative version of those words or other comparable words or phrases of a future or forward-looking nature. These forward-looking statements are not historical facts, and are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about our industry, management’s beliefs and certain assumptions made by management, many of which, by their nature, are inherently uncertain and beyond our control. Accordingly, we caution you that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, assumptions and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable as of the date made, actual results may prove to be materially different from the results expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements.
There are or will be important factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those indicated in these forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, the following: the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and any other public health events, our reliance on a limited number of insurance carrier partners and any potential termination of those relationships or failure to develop new relationships; existing and future laws and regulations affecting the health insurance market; changes in health insurance products offered by our insurance carrier partners and the health insurance market generally; insurance carriers offering products and services directly to consumers; changes to commissions paid by insurance carriers and underwriting practices; competition with brokers, including exclusively online brokers and carriers who opt to sell policies directly to consumers; competition from government-run health insurance exchanges; developments in the U.S. health insurance system; our dependence on revenue from carriers in our senior segment and downturns in the senior health as well as life, automotive and home insurance industries; our ability to develop new offerings and penetrate new vertical markets; risks from third-party products; failure to enroll individuals during the Medicare annual enrollment period; our ability to attract, integrate and retain qualified personnel; our dependence on lead providers and ability to compete for leads; failure to obtain and/or convert sales leads to actual sales of insurance policies; access to data from consumers and insurance carriers; accuracy of information provided from and to consumers during the insurance shopping process; cost-effective advertisement through internet search engines; ability to contact consumers and market products by telephone; global economic conditions, including inflation; disruption to operations as a result of future acquisitions; significant estimates and assumptions in the preparation of our financial statements; impairment of goodwill; potential litigation and other legal proceedings or inquiries; our existing and future indebtedness; our ability to maintain compliance with our debt covenants and meet our scheduled repayment obligations under out debt arrangement; our ability to access to additional capital on acceptable terms; failure to protect our intellectual property and our brand; fluctuations in our financial results caused by seasonality; accuracy and timeliness of commissions reports from insurance carriers; timing of insurance carriers’ approval and payment practices; factors that impact our estimate of the constrained lifetime value of commissions per policyholder; changes in accounting rules, tax legislation and other legislation; disruptions or failures of our technological infrastructure and platform; failure to maintain relationships with third-party service providers; cybersecurity breaches or other attacks involving our systems or those of our insurance carrier partners or third-party service providers; our ability to protect consumer information and other data; failure to market and sell Medicare plans effectively or in compliance with laws; and other factors related to our pharmacy business, including manufacturing or supply chain disruptions, access to and demand for prescription drugs, and regulatory changes or other industry developments that may affect our pharmacy operations. For a further discussion of these and other risk factors that could impact our future results and performance, see the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent periodic reports filed by us with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and, except as otherwise required by law, we do not undertake any obligation to publicly update or review any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.
About SelectQuote:
Founded in 1985, SelectQuote (NYSE: SLQT) provides solutions that help consumers protect their most valuable assets: their families, health, and property. The company pioneered the model of providing unbiased comparisons from multiple, highly-rated insurance companies allowing consumers to choose the policy and terms that best meet their unique needs. Two foundational pillars underpin SelectQuote’s success: a strong force of highly-trained and skilled agents who provide a consultative needs analysis for every consumer, and proprietary technology that sources and routes high-quality leads.
With an ecosystem offering high touchpoints for consumers across insurance, medicare, pharmacy, and value-based care, the company now has four core business lines: SelectQuote Senior, SelectQuote Healthcare Services, SelectQuote Life, and SelectQuote Auto and Home. SelectQuote Senior serves the needs of a demographic that sees around 10,000 people turn 65 each day with a range of Medicare Advantage and Medicare Supplement plans. SelectQuote Healthcare Services is comprised of the SelectRx Pharmacy, a Patient-Centered Pharmacy Home™ (PCPH) accredited pharmacy, and Population Health which proactively connects consumers with a wide breadth of healthcare services supporting their needs.
OVERLAND PARK, Kan.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– SelectQuote, Inc. (NYSE: SLQT), a leading distributor of Medicare insurance policies and owner of an emerging Healthcare Services platform, announced today that it will release its fiscal second quarter 2024 financial results prior to market open on Wednesday, February 7, 2024. Chief Executive Officer, Tim Danker, and Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Clement, will host a conference call on the day of the release (February 7, 2024) at 8:30 am ET to discuss the results.
After registering, a confirmation will be sent via email, including dial in details and unique conference call codes for entry. Registration is open through the live call, but to ensure you are connected for the full call we suggest registering a day in advance or at minimum 10 minutes before the start of the call. The event will also be webcasted live via our investor relations website https://ir.selectquote.com/investor-home/default.aspx or via this link.
About SelectQuote:
Founded in 1985, SelectQuote (NYSE: SLQT) provides solutions that help consumers protect their most valuable assets: their families, health, and property. The company pioneered the model of providing unbiased comparisons from multiple, highly-rated insurance companies allowing consumers to choose the policy and terms that best meet their unique needs. Two foundational pillars underpin SelectQuote’s success: a strong force of highly-trained and skilled agents who provide a consultative needs analysis for every consumer, and proprietary technology that sources and routes high-quality leads.
With an ecosystem offering high touchpoints for consumers across insurance, medicare, pharmacy, and value-based care, the company now has four core business lines: SelectQuote Senior, SelectQuote Healthcare Services, SelectQuote Life, and SelectQuote Auto and Home. SelectQuote Senior serves the needs of a demographic that sees around 10,000 people turn 65 each day with a range of Medicare Advantage and Medicare Supplement plans. SelectQuote Healthcare Services is comprised of the SelectRx Pharmacy, a Patient-Centered Pharmacy Home™ (PCPH) accredited pharmacy, and Population Health which proactively connects consumers with a wide breadth of healthcare services supporting their needs.
