Saga Communications (SGA) – Political A Big Swing Factor


Friday, August 09, 2024

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 27 markets, including 79 FM and 33 AM radio stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Active Rock, Adult Album Alternative, Adult Contemporary, Country, Classic Country, Classic Hits, Classic Rock, Contemporary Hits Radio, News/Talk, Oldies and Urban Contemporary. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Delivers on expectations. The company reported Q2 revenue of $28.7 million and adj. EBITDA of $4.4 million, both of which were in line with our estimates of $28.8 million and $4.6 million, respectively as illustrated in Figure #1 Q2 Results. Notably, the revenue estimate was achieved in spite of weaker than expected Political advertising. 

Pacings appear weak. Management indicated that Q3 revenues are pacing down mid single digits, which, we believe, may be conservative given that there is limited visibility on Political advertising. The weak revenue outlook reflects, however, lackluster core advertising which appears to be impacted by the current macroeconomic headwinds.  


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Release – Saga Communications, Inc. Announces Date and Time of 2nd Quarter 2024 Earnings Release and Conference Call

Research News and Market Data on SGA

Jul 15, 2024

PDF Version

GROSSE POINTE FARMS, Mich., July 15, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Saga Communications, Inc. (Nasdaq: SGA) announced today that it will release its 2nd Quarter 2024 results at 9:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday, August 8, 2024. The company will be holding a conference call on the same date at 11:00 a.m. EDT. The dial-in numbers are as follows:

Domestic and International Dial-in Number: (973) 528-0008
Conference Entry Code: 379213

The Company requests that all parties that have a question that they would like to submit to the Company to please email the inquiry by 10:00 a.m. EDT on August 8, 2024, to SagaIR@sagacom.com. The Company will discuss, during the limited period of the conference call, those inquiries it deems of general relevance and interest. Only inquiries made in compliance with the foregoing will be discussed during the call.

Saga’s earnings release will contain certain non-GAAP financial measures including station operating income, trailing 12-month consolidated EBITDA, and same station financial information. A reconciliation of all non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures will be provided in the earnings release.

Saga is a media company whose business is devoted to acquiring, developing, and operating broadcast properties with a growing focus on opportunities complimentary to our core radio business including digital, e-commerce and non-traditional revenue initiatives.  Saga owns or operates broadcast properties in 28 markets, including 82 FM and 32 AM radio stations and 79 metro signals. For additional information, contact us at (313) 886-7070 or visit our website at www.sagacom.com.

Contact:
Samuel D. Bush
(313) 886-7070

Saga Communications (SGA) – A Little More Revenue Could Fix It


Friday, May 10, 2024

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 27 markets, including 79 FM and 33 AM radio stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Active Rock, Adult Album Alternative, Adult Contemporary, Country, Classic Country, Classic Hits, Classic Rock, Contemporary Hits Radio, News/Talk, Oldies and Urban Contemporary. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $24.7 million, marginally beating our estimate of $24.3 million. Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was $0.2 million, which missed our estimate of $1.7 million. The “miss” was due to extra ordinary expenses including streaming costs, healthcare, wages, and bad debt. Some of these costs are not expected to continue into subsequent quarters.

2024 outlook. We view 2024 as a year of transition for the company, given its increased focus and investment in growing digital and national revenue. Notably, management highlighted that its online news service is expected to have 18 different websites operational by the end of June, and its acquisition of five radio stations located in Lafayette, Indiana is expected to close by June 1. 


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Saga Communications (SGA) – Regains Its Crown


Friday, March 08, 2024

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 27 markets, including 79 FM and 33 AM radio stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Active Rock, Adult Album Alternative, Adult Contemporary, Country, Classic Country, Classic Hits, Classic Rock, Contemporary Hits Radio, News/Talk, Oldies and Urban Contemporary. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Delivers good Q4 results. Total company revenues of $29.1 million was slightly better than our $28.5 million estimate. The Q4 revenue decline of a modest 3.3% was due to the absence of Political advertising. However, it was among the best in an industry which reflected revenue declines between 6% to 14% among its peers. Adj. EBITDA was $4.5 million versus our $4.0 million estimate. 

Announces special dividend. The company declared its first variable dividend of $0.60 per share to be paid on April 5, 2024 with a record date of March 18, 2024. The dividend will be funded by cash on the company’s balance sheet. This variable dividend is in addition to the regular quarterly dividend and a recent $2 per share special dividend. 


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Saga Communications (SGA) – Provides Fuel To Its Growth


Thursday, February 15, 2024

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 27 markets, including 79 FM and 33 AM radio stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Active Rock, Adult Album Alternative, Adult Contemporary, Country, Classic Country, Classic Hits, Classic Rock, Contemporary Hits Radio, News/Talk, Oldies and Urban Contemporary. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Buys attractive radio station group. Saga plans to purchase Lafayette, IN radio stations WKOA (FM), WKHY (FM), WASK (FM), WXXB (FM), WASK (AM) and W269DJ from Neuhoff Communications in a cash transaction for $5.3 million. The transaction is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to close in May. We view the transaction favorably. 

Attractive market. Lafayette is in line with the company’s target acquisition markets. The stations are located in a growing community with a broad-based economy including a large university (Purdue University), biotech and healthcare services, advanced manufacturing (Caterpillar large engines and Wabash), Aerospace (GE Aviation, SAAB, & Rolls Royce), and Automotive (Subaru) which is expanding.  


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Saga Communications (SGA) – Stands Apart From The Radio Pack


Friday, February 02, 2024

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 27 markets, including 79 FM and 33 AM radio stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Active Rock, Adult Album Alternative, Adult Contemporary, Country, Classic Country, Classic Hits, Classic Rock, Contemporary Hits Radio, News/Talk, Oldies and Urban Contemporary. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Highlights from recent NDR. This report provides highlights of a recent Non Deal Road Show to investors in South Florida on January 30th and 31st. Chris Forgy, CEO, and Sam Bush, CFO, reinforced our favorable investment premise for the company. 

A lot of headroom for growth. Management appeared sanguine about its revenue growth opportunities given its developing Digital businesses and focus on National, Non Traditional Revenue (Events), and e-commerce revenues. Digital revenue accounts for only 11% of its total revenue giving it a lot of headroom for growth, with some peers as much as 50% of revenue. 


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Saga Communications (SGA) – Compelling Total Return Potential

Friday, December 08, 2023

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 27 markets, including 79 FM and 33 AM radio stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Active Rock, Adult Album Alternative, Adult Contemporary, Country, Classic Country, Classic Hits, Classic Rock, Contemporary Hits Radio, News/Talk, Oldies and Urban Contemporary. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Announces a hefty special dividend. The company announced that it declared a special cash dividend of $2.00 per share to be paid on January 12, 2024 to shareholders on record December 20, 2023. The aggregate amount of the special dividend of $12.5 million will be paid from its sizable cash position. We believe that the announcement reflects the company’s confidence in its favorable fundamental outlook and significantly strong financial position.

Strong balance sheet. As of Sept. 30, the company had $31.2 million in cash and no long term debt. As such, the company has a strong balance sheet that will be maintained following the special dividend payment. This recent dividend announcement follows its Board’s review of the appropriate level of cash to be maintained on its balance sheet, which will reduce cash and short term investments to roughly $25 million. 

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Saga Communications, Inc. (SGA) – Delivering On Its Growth Strategy Initiatives


Friday, November 03, 2023

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 27 markets, including 79 FM and 33 AM radio stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Active Rock, Adult Album Alternative, Adult Contemporary, Country, Classic Country, Classic Hits, Classic Rock, Contemporary Hits Radio, News/Talk, Oldies and Urban Contemporary. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q3 results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $29 million, and adj. EBITDA of $5 million, both of which were in-line with our estimates of $28.9 million and $5 million, respectively. Notably, the company’s national advertising revenue was up 1% in the quarter, which is virtually unheard of among its peers. We believe that the company will have among the best Q3 results in the industry. 

Best in class. Management indicated that its Digital businesses grew a strong 34% in the quarter, likely to exceed the industry. Notably, the company’s national advertising revenue is up an impressive 6.9% year-to-date. In addition to the company’s industry leading digital revenue growth and resilient national advertising revenues, the company has a pristine balance sheet with no long term debt. 


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Saga Communications, Inc. (SGA) – The Prettiest One At The Dance


Wednesday, August 09, 2023

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations, television stations and state radio networks. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 26 markets, including 61 FM and 30 AM radio stations, 3 state radio networks, 2 farm radio networks, 5 television stations and 4 low power television stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio and television stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Classic Hits, Adult Contemporary, Active Rock, Oldies, News/Talk, Country and Classical. Saga’s television stations are affiliated with CBS and Fox in Joplin, MO; CBS in Greenville, MS; ABC, Fox, NBC, Telemundo and Univision in Victoria, TX. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on the NYSE Amex under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q2 results. Solid Q2 revenue of $29.2 million was 1.7% better than our estimate of $28.7 million. Adj. EBITDA in quarter was $5.8 million, beating our estimate of $5.2 million by 12%. While total revenue was down a modest 2.2% year over year, there were some strong greenshoots: National advertising increased 12%, Non-Traditional Revenue increased 10% and Digital revenue increased an impressive 17%. 

Favorable digital growth trajectory. The company’s digital segment had a strong performance and now comprises 9% of total company revenue. Notably, e-commerce was particularly strong, with revenue growth of over 100%. Additionally, the company is expanding its online newspaper, Clarksville Now, in two new markets. We believe the company’s favorable digital initiatives could accelerate digital revenue growth over the next several quarters. 


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Saga Communications, Inc. (SGA) – A New Saga Premiers


Tuesday, August 01, 2023

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations, television stations and state radio networks. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 26 markets, including 61 FM and 30 AM radio stations, 3 state radio networks, 2 farm radio networks, 5 television stations and 4 low power television stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio and television stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Classic Hits, Adult Contemporary, Active Rock, Oldies, News/Talk, Country and Classical. Saga’s television stations are affiliated with CBS and Fox in Joplin, MO; CBS in Greenville, MS; ABC, Fox, NBC, Telemundo and Univision in Victoria, TX. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on the NYSE Amex under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Non-deal Roadshow highlights. On July 27, Chris Forgy, CEO, and Sam Bush, CFO, hosted investor meetings in St. Louis.  We believe that the management team was sanguine about favorable revenue and cash flow growth prospects. This report highlights the company’s resilient local radio operations, strong balance sheet and emergent digital revenues.  

Strong local presence.  The company operates primarily in small and midsize markets outside the top 50. We believe its highly localized footprint provides more revenue stability relative to its nationally focused peers. Additionally, we believe its strong local relationships will assist in accelerating digital revenue growth. Notably, management highlighted its commitment to local audiences, given its ethos is grounded in localism.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Saga Communications, Inc. (SGA) – Starts A New Chapter


Wednesday, May 31, 2023

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations, television stations and state radio networks. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 26 markets, including 61 FM and 30 AM radio stations, 3 state radio networks, 2 farm radio networks, 5 television stations and 4 low power television stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio and television stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Classic Hits, Adult Contemporary, Active Rock, Oldies, News/Talk, Country and Classical. Saga’s television stations are affiliated with CBS and Fox in Joplin, MO; CBS in Greenville, MS; ABC, Fox, NBC, Telemundo and Univision in Victoria, TX. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on the NYSE Amex under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Initiating coverage. We are initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and establishing a $27 price target. Our favorable rating is based on a combination of above average revenue and cash flow growth opportunities and attractive stock valuation. 

Untapped growth opportunities. Over the past 15 years, the company outperformed its industry peer revenue and cash flow growth, at least until most recently as the industry moved to expand fast growing Digital revenue streams. We believe that the company’s Digital revenue opportunity is largely in front it, offering above average revenue and cash flow growth opportunities. 


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