Tag: Russell

Russell Reconstitution 2024: The Ultimate Guide to This Year’s Index Shake-Up

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The annual Russell reconstitution is one of the biggest events in the investing world, shaping the composition of the widely followed Russell indexes, including the influential Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes. This comprehensive process ensures these indexes accurately represent various U.S. market segments by reflecting changes in company market capitalizations and characteristics.

What is the Russell Reconstitution?
The Russell reconstitution is an annual rebalancing process where all Russell equity indexes undergo a complete overhaul. During reconstitution, the index provider FTSE Russell rebuilds the Russell indexes from the ground up based on new data on eligible stocks’ market caps, trading volumes, and other criteria.

This vital event maintains the integrity of Russell indexes as accurate benchmarks by updating their holdings to reflect the current landscape of the U.S. stock market. Reconstitution allows companies that have grown or shrunk in value to be properly represented in the appropriate Russell indexes.

The Importance of the Russell 3000 Index
A major focus of the reconstitution is the Russell 3000 Index, considered one of the leading benchmarks for the overall U.S. equity market. This index aims to capture 98% of U.S. stocks by market cap.

On May 24, 2024, FTSE Russell published its annual reconstitution updates, revealing notable new additions to the Russell 3000 like Ocugen, Eledon Pharmaceuticals, NN Inc., and Bitcoin Depot. Such changes highlight how reconstitution allows the index to evolve with the market.

The Closely Watched Russell 2000 Index
Another keenly watched Russell index is the small-cap Russell 2000, which tracks the smallest 2,000 companies in the Russell 3000 by market cap. This index is considered a leading benchmark for small-cap U.S. stocks.

During reconstitution, companies can move in or out of the Russell 2000 based on changes to their market capitalization or investment style exposures like value vs growth. This rebalancing ensures the Russell 2000 precisely represents today’s small-cap universe.

IPO Additions Throughout the Year
In addition to the annual reset, FTSE Russell regularly adds eligible IPO stocks to its indexes on a quarterly basis. This allows newly public companies to quickly enter major benchmarks like the Russell 3000 instead of waiting for reconstitution.

Russell’s IPO treatment distinguishes between fully underwritten IPOs and partial or “best efforts” public offerings when determining appropriate share weights and eligibility.

Rebalancing Drives Major Trading Activity
Russell reconstitution is a major trading event, as index funds and ETFs tracking Russell benchmarks must rebalance their portfolios to match updated index constituents and weightings.

Estimates suggest hundreds of billions in assets follow the Russell benchmarks, meaning their reconstitution announcements can trigger massive shifts in demand for newly added or removed stocks.

Following Russell’s Transparent Methodology
FTSE Russell’s reconstitution process follows an objective, rules-based methodology spelled out in publicly available documentation. Key eligibility factors include:

  • Trading on eligible U.S. stock exchanges
  • Meeting minimum price, market cap, and liquidity thresholds
  • Sufficient public share float and voting rights
  • Eligible corporate structures like public operating companies

Staying on top of Russell’s transparent reconstitution rules allows investors to understand how index changes may impact their portfolios and positions.

The Russell Reconstitution’s Continuing Impact
As indexes like the Russell 3000 continue gaining prominence as core portfolio benchmarks, Russell reconstitution’s influence grows. The 2024 event reinforces the Russell indexes’ role in definitively capturing U.S. market performance by surgery evolving index holdings to match current realities.

Whether reallocating client assets, developing new index funds, or simply understanding market composition changes, the 2024 Russell reconstitution guide will prove essential reading for investors. Follow this yearly event closely, as it shapes the benchmarks driving U.S. equity allocations for years to come.

Upcoming 2024 Russell Reconstitution Schedule

Friday, May 31st, June 7th, 14th, and 21st – Preliminary membership lists (reflecting any updates) posted to the FTSE Russell website after 6PM US eastern time.

Monday, June 10th – “Lock-down” period begins with the updates to reconstitution membership considered to be final.

Friday, June 28th – Russell Reconstitution is final after the close of the US equity markets.

Monday, July 1st – Equity markets open with the newly reconstituted Russell US Indexes.

Capitalizing on Less Certainty

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

The Market Averages Suggest this Move

Different investment timelines call for different investments.

Have you ever looked at a chart of a company you were interested in, let’s say year-to-date, and thought, wow, this company has just dipped to where it could be expected to start to bring in buyers and go up? Then you look at a five-year chart, and the same stock has been trending down for years, and is actually close to where, from a longer-term perspective, a technical analyst would view it as more likely to weaken. Based on time perspective, both expectations can coincide with each other. This is why it is important to understand your own investment time frame before pulling the trigger on a stock.

The big question that needs to be answered first is, are you expecting the trade to work out in minutes, weeks, or years? Often this is based on any future needs of your invested capital.

If a trader is trying to make incremental income, they may use a five-minute chart. An investor looking to gain by holding weeks or months may use a one or three-year chart. Longer-term investors, those that are looking to put to bed what they hope will be the next Apple or Tesla in terms of performance, may look at charts using 20 years, or the “Max” time period.

Those that are longer-term investors can be less cautious about the exact timing on most investments, or less concerned about deciding if this is the ideal timing. This is especially relevant today in light of recession talk, rate increases, global risk, and other possible disruptions.

In fact, last year’s downward market direction was a wake up call for a lot of less seasoned investors, coming off so many so many positive years before. And this years retracement back up, is a good reminder that over time, markets have always broken new highs.

As mentioned above, when times are less certain, the investor that is looking to hold for an extended period, is the investor less likely to question their decision; many actually average into a position based on calendar buys, not price targets.

Having the long view, or deciding uncertain markets has dictated a longer view, would likely steer the investor to include smaller companies. Smaller companies have had the best long-term performance. It’s a category that may be more volatile but over time, has served investors better.

Over the past few years, small cap stocks have participated far less in the upward trend. That is less than larger companies (on average) and far less than they have versus their own historical average relative to large caps.

Source: Koyfin

The chart above compares performance since the beginning of the decade of the Russell 2000 Large Cap performance (blue) to the Russell 2000 Small Cap index (gold). One thing that is evident immediately is the small cap stocks outperformed large caps long term by a large margin over time. The second is the trend is up. If you’d like, add a third which is there has been a significant dip in value (last year’s bear market).

“From our perspective, the uncertain present offers a highly opportune time to invest in small caps for the long run.” —Francis Gannon, Co-CIO Gannon Investment Partners (June 13. 2023)

Long term investors looking at this scenario could easily make a case for getting involved knowing that small caps historically overperform large caps. So if an investor is looking to maximize return, large caps may not have the highest probabilities. The above graph makes both points clear.

Source: Koyfin  

This second chart begins only five year ago. If one was to look at it by itself, the trendline over the years is upward, with gains in both large cap and small cap . But the large caps have a steeper upward pace. On the other hand, small caps are noticeably flat since the beginning of 2022.

Source: Koyfin  

The last chart is just since the beginning of this month. Small cap stocks seem to finally have caught their tailwind, going up by more on most up days, and coming down by less on down days. Time will tell if this is a trend that will continue.

The small cap stock index won’t catch the large caps over night. If it happens, it will be months or years before investors that have been in small caps catch and pass those that have been in large cap stocks. Those investing now will outperform those that got in earlier. Of course, long-term investors are cautioned to also be diversified across many industries and of even market cap sectors.

Perhaps rebalancing the allocation after so many periods of small cap underperformance is a strategy that fits all the basic tenets that have been true of long-term investing.

They are:

Over time the stock market goes up and breaks new records.

Diversified portfolios spread risk and are less volatile.

Rebalance so allocations in sectors that have done well are not now undermining your asset mix.

Take Away

One can look at the same stock, over different time periods and see completely different trends. Those investing longer term, providing the company or industry isn’t in a decades long tailspin, reduce the risk of loss by letting time iron out the ups and downs.

Small cap stocks over time have outperformed larger companies. Assuming this hasn’t changed, when the volatility is “ironed out” small caps have a lot of catching up to do before they pass. This argues that they will return even greater comparative performance than if they were already ahead in recent years.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

Why the Time Looks Right for Small Caps —Royce (royceinvest.com)

Why Small Cap Stocks Started to Attract Mega Cap Investors

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Small Cap Companies Making June 2023 a Whole New Race

June is shaping up to be the month when small-cap stocks are the stocks to watch. This investment news is based on the huge lead they have taken since the opening bell on Friday June 2nd. The Russell 2000 index tracks U.S. small-cap stocks. While the index is up less than 3% in 2023, and the S&P 500 is up nearly 12%, and Nasdaq is up almost 27%, historically, the average return over time is expected to be greater for small-caps. In order for the averages to come back in line with historical norms, the large-cap stocks either have to begin trending down, the small-caps upward, or maybe a little of both. There is new reason to believe that now is the time that small-caps are finally getting back into the race.

The Russell Small-Cap Index, which is made up of the lowest 2,000 companies in terms of market cap of the broader Russell 3000, was up 3.6% on Friday, June 2nd; it gave up 1.1% on the following Monday, then rallied on Tuesday, June 6th by 2.8%. Meanwhile, the other indexes stalled. Friday’s gains were its largest one-day increase in six months, and Tuesday represents its biggest gain since early March.

Both large-cap indexes attribute their gains to the high-flying mega-cap tech stocks. Much of the non-tech portions of these indexes are not contributing to the year’s great performance. Some analysts are beginning to express concern that Nasdaq valuations are stretched. In contrast, price/earnings ratios on many small-cap stocks are below historical norms.

What’s more, is the earnings per share (EPS) is beginning to be revised upward, “small caps are finally starting to participate in the EPS revisions recovery,” said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a research note Monday. “The rate of upward EPS estimate revisions has moved up to 50% for the Russell 2000,” she said, adding that more than half the sectors in the index are “now in positive revisions territory for both EPS and revenues.”

Source: Koyfin


Calvarisa highlighted these sectors: utilities, consumer staples, healthcare, industrials, communications services, information technology, and TIMT (technology, internet, media and telecommunications), saying they have both positive EPS and revenue revisions among the small-caps.

Another interesting reason for the promise of small-caps stealing the show in June, according to the RBC research, small-cap stocks usually bottom three to six months before EPS forecasts start rising again.

The introduction of artificial intelligence (AI), from primarily small market cap companies and how the new technology can help with online research and creative inspiration, has placed investors in megacap stocks like Google and Microsoft on notice. They now know that a younger superior technology may disrupt a large part of these tech giants’ business. Not dissimilar to what they had done as small companies a few decades earlier.

Take Away

June is always an exciting month for companies with small market cap as the Russell 3000 index reconstitution also reshapes the small-cap Russell 2000 during June. Many self-directed investors try to front-run the institutions that are required to own or eliminate stocks from their portfolios. Price movements can be large.

The excitement is being compounded by the fear creeping in among large-cap investors, EPS revisions, and of course the reversion to mean average performance of large-cap stocks, to small-caps.  

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230606265/small-cap-stocks-are-surging-tuesday-as-broader-us-market-sleeps-heres-why

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230605260/small-cap-stocks-lag-in-2023-but-heres-where-theyre-finally-starting-to-see-positive-earnings-revisions

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/06/02/small-caps-are-benefitting-from-the-value-trade-catchup-says-rbcs-lori-calvasina.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

https://app.koyfin.com/share/09d4d3eaad

What Happens to Your Stock Holding When it is Added to a Major Index?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Index Inclusion or Deletion Can Send Shockwaves Through Stocks

With the massive amount of assets in mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that are geared to return the same performance as a major index, there’s been a lot of investor focus on the addition and subtraction of stocks from indexes, especially the widely followed, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell, and Dow Industrials. This is because many institutional investors attempt to mirror the performance of these indexes by buying the same stocks. Some funds are even required by their charter or offering prospectus to hold the same stocks. This produces “unnatural” price movements in companies as they are moved in or out of an index. Self-directed investors, not beholden to a set of investing rules, may find opportunities by recognizing, then positioning themselves before institutions are required to buy or sell a company name.

Rebalancing of the most followed indices is a reality for individual investors, so it’s good to understand the timing and dynamics, and valuing a stock based on what stock index it may be in.

Dynamics

When a stock is added to a broad index, millions or billions of investment dollars flow into that stock, typically driving its price higher. And the reverse is also true; when a stock is removed from an index, it’s often sold by fund managers, which decreases demand and causes its price to weaken. There are conflicting studies that in some cases, indicate the added strength by inclusion is short-lived, and others that indicate that the stock begins to trade with an emphasis on whether or not money is flowing into the index it is included in, or out. All studies agree that there is typically an initial change in the stock’s valuation.    

       

Timing

When a stock is added to a major index, as will happen with the Russell 3000, Russell 2000, and Russell 1000 on June 27,  it has historically had positive effects on its trading demand, this has impacted its price. As the Russell will reshuffle, or in their jargon “reconstitute” its indexes this month (June) let’s use the Russell 2000, which captures the performance of approximately 2,000 small-cap stocks in the United States. Here are the potential impacts of a stock being added to the index:

Price impact is what concerns investors most. The announcement of a stocks addition to an index can lead to a price impact. This is because investors who track the index may need to purchase the stock to align their portfolios with the index composition. The increased demand can push the stock’s price higher.

It could also lead to investor recognition or Increased Visibility. Inclusion in a major index can come with increased visibility and recognition for a company. This can attract the attention of investors, including index funds, mutual funds, and other institutional investors who track or invest in the index. As a result, the stock may experience increased trading volume and better liquidity.

Institutional buying may increase. Index funds and other institutional investors that track the Russell 2000 (or other indices) may need to purchase the stock to replicate the index’s performance. This can lead to increased buying pressure from these large investors, potentially driving the stock’s price higher.

A nod by an index can bring overall positive sentiment. Being added to a major index can create a positive sentiment around a stock, signaling that the company is growing and gaining prominence. This positive sentiment may attract additional investors who believe the stock’s inclusion in the index validates its prospects, potentially leading to further price appreciation.

Trading Activity usually escalates with inclusion. Inclusion in the Russell 2000 can result in increased trading activity as the stock becomes part of a widely tracked benchmark. More market participants are likely to trade the stock, increasing its overall trading volume.

When Are the Other (Non-Russell) Indexes Rebalanced?

While the FTSE Russell has a strict and easily understood set of rules and guidelines that make it easy to understand, the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq also rebalance under their own timeline.

The S&P 500 is reviewed and rebalanced on a quarterly basis. During these reviews, S&P Dow Jones Indices assess the constituents of the index and consider changes based on the selection criteria and market developments. They don’t follow hard and strict rules.

The Nasdaq 100 is a market-capitalization-weighted index that includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market. The index is maintained by Nasdaq, and its rebalancing process involves an annual evaluation to determne eligibility, and potential rebalancing.

The annual evaluation involves Nasdaq reviewing the composition of the Nasdaq 100, this typically occurs in December. During this evaluation, companies are assessed based on their market capitalization, liquidity, and other factors. The top 100 eligible companies by market capitalization become or remain constituents of the index. They must be traded n the Nasdaq exchange.

Eligibility for companies is determined by their meeting certain criteria to allow inclusion in the Nasdaq 100. These include being listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market, having a minimum average daily trading volume, and meeting liquidity requirements.

If rebalancing is necessary, Nasdaq conducts this during an annual rebalancing in December. Companies that no longer meet the eligibility criteria may be removed, and new companies that meet the criteria may be added. The weightings of the index constituents may also be adjusted based on their market caps.

The Dow 30, also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), is a price-weighted index that represents the performance of 30 large, publicly traded companies in the United States. The index is maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices, and its rebalancing process is different from market-capitalization-weighted indices like the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100. It includes price weighting and selective changes.

Price-weighted for the Dow 30 index is based on the stock prices of its constituents rather than their market capitalizations. The impact investors should be aware of is that higher-priced stocks have a larger impact on the index’s movements.

Selective changes is best defined knowing the Dow 30 does not undergo regular rebalancing like other indices. Instead, changes in the index composition are infrequent and typically occur when a constituent company experiences a significant corporate action, such as a merger, acquisition, or bankruptcy. When such changes occur, the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices makes a decision to replace the affected company with another suitable candidate.

It’s important to note that the impact of being added to an index can vary depending on factors such as the stock’s size, liquidity, and investor sentiment. Additionally, market conditions and investor behavior can influence the stock’s performance. Therefore, while inclusion in a major index can have positive effects, it doesn’t guarantee a specific outcome for the stock’s price. And being removed from an index may only create potential.

Take Away

There is activity surrounding stocks as they are added or deleted from a major market index. Investors should be aware of when the index is being reconstituted or altered, so they may either benefit, stand clear, or be sure that they are not in harms way. The Russell indexes will be reconstituted at the close of the last Friday of this month (June).

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

https://www.ftserussell.com/