It Seems Likely that Grandma and Grandpa are Getting a Much Smaller Raise Next Year
In 2023, Social Security recipients received the highest COLA in more than 40 years, 8.7%. At the same time, the entire U.S., including those retired, was impacted by the highest annual inflation in over 40 years. The result is the increased pay impacted recipients differently. Those with a higher percentage of variable costs or expenses, especially where inflation was worst, such as rent, travel, or fuel did not benefit as much, if at all. Those with a greater percentage of fixed costs may have found themselves with more money at the end of each month.
Consumers in the U.S., including Social Security recipients, have not had their purchasing power eroded as much during the first seven months of 2023, as they experienced in 2022. Social Security cost of living adjustments (COLA) are based on a formula that will cause the increase paid next year to rise almost by a third of what it rose at the beginning of 2023.
While not yet official, the new forecast comes after the release of July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), and is largely based on little change over the next 45 days.
How is a COLA Calculated?
Ignore for a moment the inflation rate percentages you see in the news headlines. The 12-month CPI is calculated by using the set cost of a basket of goods during the month, divided into the cost of the same basket a year earlier. SSA COLA is calculated by the average price of the basket July, August, and September, and dividing it by the average of these months a year earlier. The CPI used in this case is not the CPI-U (all urban consumers) typically reported in the news, but instead, CPI-W (Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers). CPI-W is calculated on a monthly basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The most recent release was August 10, 2023.
COLA increases are rounded to the nearest tenth. The adjusted benefit payments are effective as of the first month of the new year.
What to Expect
Social Security recipients could see a 3% bump up next year, based on July’s CPI data, and the current stagnation in the level of inflation. A 3% COLA would raise an average monthly benefit of $1,789 by $53.70 and the maximum benefit by $136.65 per month.
Retired Americans who find Social Security a nice addition to 401(k) or 403(B) investment returns or ample pensions may find themselves with a few extra dollars to take road trips or treat themselves to dining out, or gifts for grandchildren. But investors looking for industries that may benefit from the fatter checks older Americans will receive may find that there is little difference in spending for the majority.
In its recent survey of retirees, the Senior Citizens League found that more than 66% of those that completed its survey have postponed dental care, including major services such as bridges, dentures, and implants. Another 43% said they have delayed optical exams or getting prescription eyeglasses. Almost one-third of survey participants said they have postponed getting medical care or filling prescriptions due to deductibles, out-of-pocket costs, and unexpected bills.
Persistent high prices aren’t the only challenge. Findings from the survey suggest more than one in five Social Security beneficiaries (23%) report they paid tax on a portion of their benefits for the first time this past tax season.
Take Away
When economic numbers are released, they are of interest to a expansive variety of economic stakeholders. This includes investors determining how new statistics will impact corporate earnings, economists deciding how it could impact the Fed’s next move, equity analysts reviewing their industry and companies in the sector, the young couple looking to furnish a new home, and those past their working years that are in general more vulnerable.
The CPI number from July and those that will be reported for August and September will have a noticeable impact on the high percentage of elderly in the U.S. come January 2024.
Managing Editor, Channelchek
Sources
https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-security-payment-increase-cola-2024-retirement-a3fce38e
https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/colafacts2022.pdf
https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-security-payment-increase-cola-2024-retirement-a3fce38e