Tag: Politics

Elections and the Stock Market: Navigating the 2024 US Presidential Race

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– The 2024 US election may increase market volatility
– Policy proposals could impact various economic sectors
– Long-term investment strategies remain crucial despite short-term political events

As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, investors are keenly watching how the political landscape might influence their portfolios. With election day set for November 5, 2024, understanding the potential impacts of this specific election cycle on the financial markets is crucial for informed decision-making.

The 2024 election is particularly significant as it follows a period of economic uncertainty, including high inflation and interest rates. Investors are closely monitoring how candidates’ policies might address these issues and shape the economic landscape moving forward.

Several key policy areas are under scrutiny. Proposals for corporate tax rates and capital gains taxes could significantly impact company profits and investor returns. Potential changes in regulatory frameworks, especially in sectors like technology, finance, and energy, may affect industry leaders and emerging companies alike. Government spending plans, including infrastructure initiatives, healthcare reforms, and climate policies, could influence various sectors of the economy. Additionally, stances on international trade, particularly regarding relationships with China and other major economic partners, may affect global markets and supply chains.

As we move closer to November, expect increased market volatility. The VIX index, often called the “fear gauge” of the market, typically rises during election years, and 2024 is likely to follow this pattern. However, it’s crucial to remember that while short-term fluctuations can be unsettling, they often have little bearing on long-term market trends.

Current polls and predictions should be taken with a grain of salt. The 2016 and 2020 elections demonstrated that unexpected outcomes are possible, and markets can react swiftly to surprises. Investors should be prepared for potential market movements in either direction as election day approaches and results unfold.

Specific sectors to watch in this election cycle include healthcare, energy, technology, and financial services. Healthcare proposals could significantly impact insurance companies, pharmaceutical firms, and hospital operators. Energy policies on fossil fuels, renewable energy, and climate change may cause shifts in the sector. In technology, discussions around data privacy, antitrust measures, and AI regulation could affect tech giants and emerging companies. Financial services may see changes due to potential shifts in banking regulations and monetary policy approaches.

For investors navigating this election season, several strategies are worth considering. Reviewing your asset allocation ensures your portfolio is well-diversified and aligned with your long-term goals, regardless of the election outcome. While staying informed is important, avoid overreacting to polls or predictions. If you’re concerned about volatility, focusing on defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples can provide more stability during uncertain times.

Market overreactions to political news can sometimes create buying opportunities for long-term investors. It’s also crucial to maintain a global perspective, remembering that many US companies derive significant revenue from overseas, potentially mitigating the impact of domestic policy changes.

As November 5 approaches, it’s natural to feel uncertainty about the markets. However, historical data shows that elections typically have a limited long-term impact on market performance. Regardless of the outcome, the fundamentals of sound investing remain the same: focus on your long-term goals, stay diversified, and avoid making emotional decisions based on short-term political events.

In conclusion, while the 2024 US presidential election will undoubtedly create some market waves, it’s crucial to maintain perspective. By staying informed, prepared, and focused on your long-term investment strategy, you can navigate this election season with confidence. Remember that beyond the election cycle, factors such as economic growth, corporate earnings, and technological advancements continue to be significant drivers of market performance in the long run.

Taming AI Sooner Rather than Later

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image: AI rendering of futuristic robot photobombing the VP and new AI Czar

Planning Ahead to Avoid an AI Pandora’s Box

Vice President Kamala Harris wasted no time as the newly appointed White House Artificial Intelligence (AI) Czar. She has already met with heads of companies involved in AI and explained that although Artificial intelligence technology has the potential to benefit humanity, the opportunities it allows also come with extreme risk. She is now tasked with spearheading the effort to preemptively prevent a Pandora’s box situation where, once allowed, the bad that results may overshadow the good.

The plan that the administration is devising, overseen by the Vice President, calls for putting in place protections as the technology grows.

On May 4, Harris met with corporate heads of companies leading in AI technology. They included OpenAI, Google and Microsoft. In a tweet from the President’s desk, he is shown thanking the corporate heads in advance for their cooperation. “What you’re doing has enormous potential and enormous danger,” Biden told the CEOs

Image: Twitter (@POTUS)

Amid recent warnings from AI experts that say tyrannical dictators could exploit the developing technology to push disinformation, the White House has allocated $140 million in funding for seven newly created AI research groups. President Biden has said the technology was “one of the most powerful” of our time, then added, “But in order to seize the opportunities it presents, we must first mitigate its risks.”

The full plan unveiled this week is to launch 25 research institutes across the US that will seek assurance from companies, including ChatGPT’s creator OpenAI, that they will ‘participate in a public evaluation.’

The reason for the concern and the actions taken is that many of the world’s best minds have been warning about the dangers of AI, specifically that it could be used against humanity. Serial tech entrepreneur Elon Musk fears AI technology will soon surpass human intelligence and have independent thinking. Put another way; the machines would no longer need to abide by human commands. At the worst currently imagined, they may develop the ability to steal nuclear codes, create pandemics and spark world wars.

Image: White House Press Release

After Harris met with tech executives Thursday to discuss reducing potential risks, she said in a statement, “As I shared today with CEOs of companies at the forefront of American AI innovation, the private sector has an ethical, moral, and legal responsibility to ensure the safety and security of their products.”

The sudden elevation of artificial intelligence as needing to be managed came as awareness grew as to just how remarkable and powerful the technology has the potential to become. This broad awareness came as OpenAI released a version of ChatGPT which already had the ability to mimic humanlike thinking and interaction.

Other considerations, and probably many not yet conceived, is that AI can generate humanlike writing and fake images; there are ethical and societal concerns. As an example, the fabricated image at the top of this article was created within three minutes by a new user of an AI program.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/04/statement-from-vice-president-harris-after-meeting-with-ceos-on-advancing-responsible-artificial-intelligence-innovation/

Is the Coming Political Gridlock Good for Specific Market Sectors?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Kelly Bell (Flickr)

A Return to Gridlock in Washington Could be Healthy for Stocks

Political gridlock has historically been associated with higher stock market prices. So, while staunch supporters of either political party did not become overjoyed by the Election Day outcome, those invested in stocks may wind up better off. With President Biden (D) in the Executive branch, and at least the House of Representatives in the legislative branch holding a Republican majority, a split government is assured. This is true no matter the final outcome of the Senate races. A split government, with its accompanying gridlock, has been accompanied by positive long-term stock market performance.

A Smoother Road

The battles in Washington may take on a more heated tone with a split government, for investors, the gridlock scenario eliminates a lot of uncertainty. In the inflationary period we are in, a government with less ability to institute spending plans, and a reduced ability to change tax rates in an effort to pay for spending, is far less of a concern to market participants – less change will be enacted.

For businesses, there is more visibility to plan, budget, and implement plans to build their business. A split government should lead toward fewer dramatic changes or government intervention that bolsters one technology or product over another. With a lower risk of playing field changing legislation, tax change, or regulations, businesses are more likely to spend and invest as the risk of change is lower.

Historically, stocks have tended to do better under a divided government when a Democrat is in the White House. The average one-year S&P 500 returns have been 13% in a Republican-held Congress under a Democratic president and 14% when the Congress is split. This compares with 10% when Democrats controlled the White House and Congress.

Under the current situation, less spending on Build Back Better initiatives and a lower likelihood of passage of more plans like The Inflation Reduction Act help reduce spending and stimulus, which may allow the Federal Reserve to end its tightening cycle sooner.

The increase in Republicans could bring more attention to several stock market areas, such as biotech and pharmaceuticals. Their increased presence lowers prospects for price controls on prescription drugs. Big tech stocks could benefit from less of a threat to regulate the industry.

Some Choppiness Ahead

In 2011 the credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating over the long gridlock battle that delayed increasing the Federal Debt ceiling. A possible downgrade, or “credit watch” category, could lead to an increase in rates, not just in U.S. government debt but all loans tied to these benchmark rates.

The enhanced power of Republicans could also slow infrastructure outlays, particularly the momentum in spending that has lifted so many alternative fuel stocks. Incentive plans and grants funded through borrowing and taxation have grown dramatically with both the executive and legislative branches under single-party control, those sectors that were expecting the pace to continue may find growth prospects slowing. Marijuana legalization on the Federal level may also be less of a priority now among lawmakers.

Stocks Post Mid-Terms Track Record

The S&P 500 has recorded a gain in each 12-month period after the mid-terms since World War Two. The markets have been clobbered with declining values since 2022 began; perhaps this is the turning point where the unfairly beaten-down sectors and companies begin to make up for lost ground.

Take Away

The election outcome wasn’t overly satisfying for either party but may lead to stronger stock market performance. Also, just getting past the mid-term elections without regard for the outcome has a stellar record of gains. If history is any indicator, a repeat of what the markets have experienced in the past, along with a slight shifting of those more positioned to take advantage of changes, should put investors in a positive mood as we approach year-end and enter 2023.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-steady-midterm-results-roll-2022-11-09/

https://m.economictimes.com/markets/stocks/news/investors-prepare-for-government-gridlock-as-republicans-seen-gaining-in-u-s-midterms/amp_articleshow/95393951.cms

https://www.fidelity.com/news/article/default/202211082056RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_L1N3242PI_1

How the Investment Playing Field Can Dramatically Change in November

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: The White House (Flickr)

The Mid-Term Elections are Just One of the SEC’s Concerns

The mid-term elections have the potential to alter the course of the markets. It’s easy to recognize how the possible outcomes can cause changes to the overall economy, including industry sectors, fuel prices, and perhaps even national debt levels. But, one area that is less obvious could also impact investors in a big way, regulation. As election day is now days away, many regulatory changes that have been in the works are quickly coming to a head, with the expectations there may be a change in priorities, power, and philosophy. The push to get things through in the coming days may still be undermined by the U.S. system. Here’s why.

The U.S. Government at Work

Federal regulators are in scramble-mode working to finalize proposed rules before what appears will be a change in the balance of power in the legislative branch. The possibility that there may be a Republican-controlled Congress or the expected idea that the democrats will lose control over one of the branches of Congress would soften their ability to institute their aggressive agendas. As the agencies refine their proposals, they also have to be mindful that it isn’t just the new Congress that will be evaluating new regulations. The Supreme Court has recently taken a heightened interest in agencies overstepping their charter, that interest is likely to continue.

It’s easy to see how Congress whose job it is to decide where money is spent, can dampen the agenda of the Department of Education (DOE), Internal Revenue Service (IRS), Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or Gary Gensler’s plans at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). But, the Supreme Court is also more than a casual observer and has shown how willing it is to make sure everyone stays in their defined lanes. 

Recent SEC Initiatives

The SEC has a three-part mission that includes protecting investors, maintaining fair, orderly, and efficient markets, and facilitating capital formation. Under Gary Gensler, it has been working overtime to impact the changing marketplaces. The initiatives are considered by some to be beyond the scope of the SEC’s lawful mission.

Gensler, who was appointed by President Biden, has been extremely active. The former Chairman of the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and MIT economics professor is proposing or finalizing dozens of regulations. Some are minor alterations to existing rules, but many are complete redesigns of how they are handled now. This redesign may make it past an unenthusiastic Congress, as they have more pressing priorities, but they may experience an aggressive halt from the country’s Judicial branch.

Recent Supreme Court Actions

In June of 2022, the Supreme Court decided W. Virginia v. EPA. The decision struck down an EPA regulation fighting climate change. The decision was made based on the grounds that the rule violated the “major questions doctrine.” The Court had never used that term before, but it seemed evident that the court might use the term and intent of the phrase should it be called on to review other federal agencies and commissions.

The Court has the authority and now recent precedent to unwind regulation that goes beyond the original intent of Congress when an agency was created or any subsequent legal grants of authority. The 6-3 ruling against the EPA explained the Clean Air Act, designed for new power plant emissions, did not extend to existing plants requiring them to shift to wind or solar. It’s a nod by the Court to keep bureaucracies from growing beyond the express original legal reason for being. 

The ruling also is relevant in that it looked at Congress’s unwillingness to legislate and legitimize the way that the agency chose to regulate. One Justice in a concurring opinion wrote the decision was in part based on whether the agency was “intruding” in a traditional area of state law. 

How it Could Impact Investors

Under the major questions doctrine, several SEC efforts may become far more difficult.

One high-profile SEC goal involves environmental initiatives. Climate change activists have supported the SEC’s proposal to require companies to increase their disclosure of anticipated climate risks. But it would be difficult for the SEC to weigh its mission against this initiative and easily demonstrate that anyone has a great impact on the other (orderly markets, investor protection, capital formation). If environmental initiatives are to be carried out, they will need to be enacted by the representatives elected to legislate on behalf of citizens.

It is easy to see how priorities focusing more on fiscal restraint rather than environmental awareness could alter the investors playing field with a power change in the Capital building.

The so-called greening of Wall Street is just one example of how the elections will impact the coming year’s winners and losers in the stock market. Consider the SEC’s proposed rules for swaps, which are financial instruments that some investors use to speculate on securities. The SEC’s suggested rule would require public disclosure within a day of these transactions to the public. The proposed rule can be considered an unprecedented intervention in this multi-trillion-dollar market. The argument is strengthened by the reality that Congress could have authorized disclosure in the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, but did not. The Supreme Court would be expected to rule on behalf of the laws as written.

Another SEC initiative also at risk is the proposed rule on “beneficial” ownership. Such a definition is important for a host of reporting obligations. The SEC is considering expanding what counts as ownership. But questions of ownership have long been a matter of state concern. Gorsuch may have something to say about the SEC’s effort to expand the definition. 

Another example is Kim Kardashian, who was ordered by the SEC to pay a fine for having touted a cryptocurrency on her Instagram account and the compensation she failed to disclose. The SEC has been in a battle with other financial overseers of the U.S. financial system to regulate and control digital currencies, which may or may not meet the definitions of a security or other language that legally created the commission.

Take Away

Regulatory agencies, including the SEC, are likely to have to contend with increased barriers with both the only branch of government that makes both laws and spends money and the branch that deciphers and enforces laws. Rather than argue if this is what should be, or if it slows down progress when wearing one’s investor hat,” investors may only want to consider what industries and what companies within those industries will be the winners and losers – then how does that fit into your overall portfolio strategy.

If you haven’t registered to receive equity research and thoughtful articles and videos from Channelchek, this is a good time to sign-up in preparation for the year-end and 2023. Click here for free registration.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek