Tag: M2

U.S. Money Supply, Here’s Why it’s Critical for Inflation Forecasts

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Pictures of Money (Flickr)

M2 is Fuel for Inflation, How Much Money Must the Fed Drain to Achieve 2 Percent?

U.S. Money Supply, measured as M2, is an important consideration when forecasting inflation. A decline in immediately available cash in the economy has a downward effect on price levels. At the same time, less cash available to consumers also cools economic growth. With the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) interest rate decision coming the first week in May, the updated report this week (for March) will give investors a look see at how successful the Fed has been draining funds from the system while trying to maintain some growth.

M2 Shrinking

The Federal Reserve will update stock and bond markets Tuesday afternoon on the total amount of currency, coins, bank savings deposits, and money-market funds held in March. This broader measure, officially M2SL, referred to as M2, gained renewed focus after contracting for the first time ever in December 2022, then contracting even further in January and February. January’s 1.75% decline and February’s 2.4% drop to $21.1 trillion, are the steepest drops so far in M2.  

Image: M2 levels ramped up starting in 2020 in response to pandemic economic efforts

A fourth consecutive decline in M2 would provide more evidence that inflation can be expected to continue to come down and weigh into the FOMC decision when the Fed meets to adjust monetary policy at its May 2-3 meeting. While the chart above shows the recent declines are significant, it is still far higher than the trend line that was established decades ago. So while a decline of similar magnitude as the first two months would be welcome by inflation hawks, there is still a great deal more cash in the system than there was pre-pandemic. But it would be a huge positive and may cause the Fed to pause or slow draining money from the system.

Inflation

Consumer price inflation is well off its 8.6% average for all of 2022. Inflation since rose 5% in March 2023 (annual basis), decelerating from February’s 6% pace. While this slowdown in price increases is substantial, the Fed doesn’t want to declare “mission accomplished” until it is ranging near 2%. Its work is not yet finished.

How close is the Fed from finished is what investors will try to discern from M2. Highly regarded analysts and Fed watchers anticipate that there is a lag of about a year when the money supply shrinks. However, as indicated above, it has never come down on an annualized basis, and January and February were the largest declines to date. So even the best analysts have little history to point to.

Financial Sector

The data is for March, so it is the first look at M2 since the banking sector showed trouble early that month. A part of the difficulty banks are currently experiencing is that the reduction in cash has caused a need for them to liquidate U.S. Treasuries and other bonds to fund withdrawals. A further huge reduction in M2 could be shown to be challenging more banks as bonds and other interest rate-sensitive assets had lost considerable value as rates rose dramatically over the past year.

Using the most recent data, the Federal Reserve reported bank deposits were down 6% for the week ending April 12 versus a year ago. Deposits have been falling year-over-year since November, off slightly at $17.2 trillion compared to the highest-ever $18.2 trillion level seen in April last year.

Further declines in deposits should lead to fewer loans written, fewer loans slows economic growth. This in part, accounts for why there is a lag between when the Fed drains and when it has an impact on inflationary pressures.

Take Away

M2 is an important gauge of future inflation. Because of this, the release of data may cause economists to change their May FOMC meeting forecast. A large decline may cause the Fed to pause, if M2 resumed its path upward the Fed may become more hawkish. Efforts to help the banking system last month, may have reinflated money supply, this will be a very interesting report.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20230322.pdf

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL#

https://rationalreasoning.substack.com/p/on-the-feds-discontinuation-of-the

https://www.barrons.com/articles/fundamental-reason-interest-rates-will-come-down-444ab9c

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m2.asp#:~:text=M2%20is%20seen%20as%20a,even%20better%20predictor%20of%20inflation.

Record Decline in Money Supply, What this Means for the Economy

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: FrankieLeon (Flickr)

Money Supply Numbers Show the Fed is Making Headway

Money Supply, as reported by the Federal Reserve, fell by the largest amount ever recorded. This significant year-on-year drop shows the Fed’s tight monetary policy at work. However, despite the dramatic decline of cash available to consumers, the pace of increase that led up to the twelve-month period was even more dramatic. This indicates the Fed is not even close to finished draining liquidity from the economy, which serves to push up the cost of money (interest rates).

What is M2, how does it impact spending, and how much lower can the money supply go to reach “normal”? Let’s explore.

The M2 Report

Data for January, released on February 28th, showed a negative growth rate of 1.7% versus a year ago. This is both the biggest yearly decline and also the first time ever it has contracted in consecutive months. The monthly rate of change has been falling consistently since mid-2021. As indicated on the chart below, it follows a historic peak of 27% growth in February 2021.

Money Supply is a measure of household liquidity, it includes household cash on hand, savings and checking deposits, and money market mutual funds. The level had been growing slowly, keeping pace with low inflation until 2020. In response to pandemic-related economic risks, the economy was then flooded with cash by the Fed. Like any other oversupply, this oversupply causes money’s value to decline – a recipe for inflation.

Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve

The Fed’s Actions

For almost a year, the Fed has been draining liquidity from the US economy. This includes the well-publicized retargeting of overnight bank lending rates which are accomplished by contracting the aggregate amount of cash banks hold in reserves. Draining liquidity also includes quantitative tightening by the Fed, not repurchasing maturing securities.

The Fed’s tightening is having an impact on savings and cash available to households. Although the consumer is still spending, the decline in savings makes the spending pace unsustainable. Unrelated to M2, but as important, is that consumer borrowing is up, and this, too, can not stay on an upward trajectory forever. The Fed’s actions have a lag time, but it is becoming obvious that there will come a point when consumers will need to change their spending habits downward. This is how inflation is expected to be reeled in, but it isn’t certain whether it is being reeled in at a pace where the Fed can succeed at reaching the 2% inflation rate goal – particularly in light of the last inflation number actually being higher than the previous month.

Where We Are Now

Although M2 growth rates declined at a pace shattering all records, levels are still abnormally high. To put numbers on it, Money Supply remains 39% higher than it was before the Covid-19 pandemic, just three years ago. In other words, the amount of liquidity in the economy is still significant, and too much money chasing too few goods and services lead to rising prices.

The current M2 of $21.27 trillion is nearly $6 trillion higher than the pre-pandemic level. At this point, money in the economy has surpassed real gross domestic product levels, a momentous shift that first happened in 2020 when the Fed flooded the economy with cash as the pandemic hit.

All of this indicates the Fed is actually being patient despite the dramatic tightening over the past year. It also makes it clear that they are not done mopping up the Covid-19 monetary mess. And investors shouldn’t be surprised to see their resolve continue until balances are more in-line with moderate inflation rates.

Take Away

The still elevated M2, despite its record yearly decline, is feeding inflation. The Fed is making headway removing fuel to the inflation fire.

However, consumers that historically have continued to spend at near unchanged levels, even when their disposable income no longer supports it, do eventually adjust. When this adjustment occurs, economic activity will slow. That’s when the Fed will be on the path to winning its inflation fight. Then perhaps we may actually get a pivot in monetary policy.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek