JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest bank, reported a 15% decline in fourth quarter 2023 earnings on Friday, weighed down by a massive $2.9 billion fee related to the government takeover of failed regional banks last year.
The bank posted profits of $9.31 billion, or $3.04 per share, for the final three months of 2023. This compared to earnings of $10.9 billion, or $3.33 per share, in the same period a year earlier. Excluding the regional banking crisis fee and other one-time items, JPMorgan said it earned $3.97 per share in the fourth quarter.
Total revenue for the quarter rose 12% to $39.94 billion, slightly above analyst forecasts. The jump was driven by the bank’s acquisition of First Republic Bank in late 2023, higher net interest income, and increased investment banking fees.
“The U.S. economy continues to be resilient, with consumers still spending, and markets currently expect a soft landing,” said JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon in a statement. “These significant and somewhat unprecedented forces cause us to remain cautious.”
Dimon cited high inflation, rising interest rates, out-of-control government spending, supply chain disruptions, the war in Ukraine, and tensions in the Middle East as potential threats to the economic outlook.
For the full year 2023, JPMorgan posted record profits of nearly $50 billion, including $4.1 billion from its acquisition of First Republic. The deal instantly gave JPMorgan a leading position in serving wealthy clients in California and other coastal markets.
Smaller Competitors Squeezed
While JPMorgan has deftly navigated the rising rate environment, smaller regional banks have struggled as the Federal Reserve hiked rates aggressively to combat inflation. Many were caught holding lower-yielding assets funded by higher-cost deposits. This squeezed net interest margins.
The regional banking crisis came to a head in early 2023 as a wave of defaults and bank seizures overwhelmed the FDIC insurance fund. JPMorgan and other large banks were handed the bill, with the FDIC levying $18 billion in special fees on the industry to recapitalize the fund.
Specifically, JPMorgan paid a $2.9 billion fee in the fourth quarter related to the FDIC assessments. This was a major factor in the bank’s profit decline compared to a year ago.
JPMorgan Cautious Despite Solid Year
Despite posting record full-year earnings, Dimon and JPMorgan management struck a cautious tone in their earnings release. While U.S. consumers remain resilient for now, risks are mounting.
Inflation could prove stickier than anticipated, forcing the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. The war in Ukraine shows no signs of resolution. Middle East conflicts continue to elevate oil prices. And the U.S. government is racking up huge deficits, with no political will to cut spending.
For banks, this backdrop could pressure lending activity, loan performance, and capital levels. Mortgage rates are already above 7%, denting the housing market. Credit card delinquencies are edging higher. Corporate debt looks vulnerable as businesses face slower growth and input cost pressures.
All of this warrants a cautious stance until more clarity emerges later this year.
With JPMorgan having reported solid results for 2023, investors are now focused on the bank’s outlook for 2024 amid an expected shift in the interest rate environment.
On Friday’s earnings call, analysts will be listening closely to hear JPMorgan’s projections and commentary around key items that could impact performance this year:
- Net interest income guidance for 2024. As the Fed cuts rates, net interest margins may compress. But higher loan volumes could offset this.
- Expectations for credit costs and loan losses. While credit metrics are healthy now, a weaker economy could strain consumers and corporate borrowers.
- Thoughts on impending hikes to capital requirements. Banks are hoping to reduce the impact of new rules on capital buffers.
- M&A landscape. Does JPMorgan see opportunities for deals amid lower valuations?
- Plans for excess capital deployment. Investors want to hear about potential increases in buybacks, dividends, and other uses.
JPMorgan entered 2024 with strong capital levels, putting it in position to boost shareholder returns even with new regulations. Investors will be listening to hear how management plans to leverage JPMorgan’s financial strength in the year ahead.
The bank’s 2024 outlook will be critical in determining whether its stock can build on last year’s big gains. JPMorgan was the top performing Dow stock in 2023, and investors are betting it can continue to drive profits in a more subdued rate environment.
