The Week Ahead –  FOMC Minutes and Thin Markets Could Mean Fireworks

This Week’s Focus Will be Defining More Precisely What the Fed’s Bias Is

A holiday-shortened week, coupled with the expected lighter trading volume, has the potential to create a situation where markets or individual stocks overreact to news, then stock prices settle back closer to the starting point after a short period. This is a bigger than normal risk on Wednesday, the first regular trading day of the week, as the Federal Reserve releases the FOMC minutes from the  June 13-14 meeting.

Monday 7/03

•             * Abbreviated trading session US markets. NYSE 1 PM close, US bond market 2 PM close.  

•             9:45 AM ET, The final Manufacturing PMI for June is expected to come in at 46.3, unchanged from the mid-month advanced read. This is below 50 and indicates significant contraction.

•             10:00 AM ET, The ISM Manufacturing Index has contracted for the last seven months. June’s consensus is 47.3 which would be a slight increase from May’s 46.9.

•             10:00 AM ET, Construction Spending for May is expected to continue to rise by 0.5 percent. This follows a strong 1.2 percent in April.

Tuesday 7/04

•             * Independence Day USA. Markets and government offices closed.

Wednesday 7/05

•             10:00 AM ET, Factory Orders are expected to rise 0.9 percent in May versus April’s 0.4 percent gain. Factory Orders are a favorite leading indicator of many economists when determining if the activity is likely to pick up or slow.

•             2:00 PM ET, FOMC Minutes from the most recent meeting when the Fed left rates unchanged will be poured over by Fed watchers and market participants to evaluate any bias beyond what is already known.

•             4:00 PM ET,  New York Federal Reserve president John C. Williams is the President will be speaking. Williams serves on the Federal Open Market Committee; his addresses reflect the Fed’s Twelfth District’s perspective on monetary policy.

Thursday 7/06

•             7:30 AM ET, Challenger Job Cut Report was 80,089 in May. The monthly report counts and categorizes announcements of corporate layoffs based on mass layoff data from state labor departments.

•             8:45 AM ET, Lorie Logan is the President of the Dallas Federal Reserve, she will be giving an address pre-market opening.  

•             9:45 AM ET, The PMI Composite Final is expected to confirm advanced reads of the purchasing managers survey.

•             10:00 AM ET, JOLTS, the report on job openings is expected to read 9.9 million for May. The PMI Composite Final is expected to confirm advanced reads of the purchasing managers survey. April’s 10.103 million was much higher than expected and pointed to strong resilience in labor demand.

•             11:00 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status Report (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the US, whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.

Friday 7/07

•             8:30 AM ET, Employment is expected to have risen 213,000 for nonfarm payroll in June versus 339,000 in May, which was much higher than expected. Average hourly earnings in June are expected to rise 0.3 percent for the month with a year-over-year rate of 4.2 percent; these would represent very little change. June’s unemployment rate is expected to hold unchanged at 3.7 percent.

•             11:00 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status Report (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the US, whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.

What Else

This is a popular vacation week among professional traders and investment managers. Any direction that may seem to take shape may not have legs as the month progresses.

Happy Independence Day to the United States; may it have many more.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.econoday.com/

The “Pilgrims” of Today

Image Credit: AJ Groomes (Pexels)

Entrepreneurial Courage and Perseverance Define the Pilgrims

Originally Published November 27, 2019 (Channelchek)

This week, across the U.S., families and friends, young and old, will gather to celebrate the “most American” of holidays, Thanksgiving. The gatherings will most surely include traditional foods of the holiday while families enjoy their own tradition of sharing and gratitude. Thoughts may also drift to almost 400 years ago when in 1621 a determined group of 102 Pilgrims persevered to achieve a mission they believed in – an accomplishment that has had a positive impact for centuries. They met challenges from the very beginning during their two-month-long voyage on the Mayflower, and they struggled as the first Winter took the lives of half the population of settlers. These resolute individuals share many of the same characteristics as today’s newer business owners who are making sacrifices in their own lives, for a better tomorrow for themselves and their descendants. 

Dictionary.com has four definitions for the word “entrepreneur,” the first reads: “a person who organizes and manages any enterprise, especially a business, usually with considerable initiative and risk.” It’s not a stretch to call the original settlers of Plymouth Massachusetts entrepreneurs.   Their grit, ingenuity, initiative, and even willingness to learn and rely on others more experienced in their environment, was certainly entrepreneurial.

The Mayflower colonists did not go by the moniker “Pilgrims,” that tag came 200 years after their landing at Plymouth Rock. Instead they referred to themselves as the “Saints”  to indicate their purity and feelings of being special or chosen. This feeling must have been a strong driver as they risked so much in a way that is extreme by any standard in modern America.

Today’s Pilgrims

The risk-takers today, at least those looking to sacrifice more than others for the dream of a better tomorrow, whether for themselves and their families or for the world at large, are the business entrepreneurs. Especially in fields that are “uncharted territory.” Some examples are companies relying on developing technology, scientific breakthroughs, or mineral exploration. As with most “firsts”, there are always unknowns, long lead times before any profit, and a shortage of capital. These are among the reasons building a business today, particularly in a groundbreaking field with unproven outcome, is a path taken by very few. Those that do, and then survive and thrive, have embraced being nimble, building alliances, persistence, belief in themselves, and asking for help when needed.

“All great and honorable actions are accompanied by great difficulties, and both must be enterprised and overcome with answerable courage.” – William Bradford, Second Governor, Plymouth Colony

Flexibility

The Pilgrims initially went to Holland, where they expected to be welcomed by people of different religions.  Their main reason for having left England was to worship without constraints. The Pilgrims made their home at first in Holland, but the more secular life they found there was not going to lead to a future that matched their vision. They wanted to build their own colony where they would attract others who believed as they did – even if it meant starting with close to nothing.  As entrepreneurs, they didn’t accept an undesirable outcome; they pivoted, changed their plans and redirected their effort, deciding to establish themselves and their future near Virginia’s Hudson River. While traveling, storms pushed them into Massachusetts, where they decided to rethink their plan once again. They then revised their plan and decided to find an area close to where they landed that would be suitable for farming.

To begin the two-month trip across the Atlantic, the Pilgrims borrowed money that, at the time, was an astronomical amount. The loan from, English capitalists looking to profit off the venture was for 1700 pounds. At the time, the average Englishman earned a tenth of a pound per day. As colonists, they first worked collectively to pay back this loan. They later divided acreage to work individually at farming their own land.

Alliances

After the first brutal Winter, the Pilgrims, who raised money in a business arrangement to finance their journey, again opened themselves up to being helped. This time by native Americans. They learned how to best plant corn, where to fish, and how to trap beaver and other furs.  This helped lead the pilgrims to an abundance just one year later and a profit in their second year. Their debt was fully paid off in 23 years.

There are now over 10 million living Americans who are descendants of the Mayflower passengers. The undeniable traits of the entrepreneurs we now call Pilgrims have impacted the world. Entrepreneurs of today share the same traits and skills of those that came before; intention toward a dream, plan, persevere, adjust, negotiate, orchestrate help, and implement. The impact of entrepreneurs continues to shape the world and continue to have a positive impact on the future with their efforts.

Giving Thanks

Ideas have the ability to change the world. Those ideas  that improve lives and positively impact the world are on the list of things we can be thankful for.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Halloween Investment Strategy Recent Results

Image Credit: Pixabay (Pexels)

Is the Halloween Investment Strategy a Trick or a Treat?

What Is the Halloween Strategy? Is it statistically reliable? What have the results been?

The directive, “Always remember to buy in November,” has a few different names; the Halloween effect, the Halloween indicator, are among the more common. It answers the question, If I sell in May and walk away, when do I come back? This is because the “Halloween Strategy” and the “Sell in May” strategies are related — they are different ways of suggesting the same action. The results should be identical.

What Is It?

The Halloween strategy is over a century old. Buying when October ends is essentially a market-timing strategy based on the thought that the overall stock market performs better between Oct. 31st (Halloween) and May 1st than it performs from May through the end of October. The directive suggests first that market timing yields better results than buy and hold. Secondly, it says the probability of better results compared to buying and holding is increased, over this period. Those who subscribe to this approach recommend not investing at all during the summer months.

Evidence suggests this strategy does perform well over time, but despite many theories, there is no clear or agreed-upon reason. A famous study was done by Sven Bouman (AEGON Asset Mgmt.) and Ben Jacobsen (Erasmus University Rotterdam) and published in the American Economic Review December 2002. The study documents the existence of a strong seasonal effect in stock returns based on the Halloween indicator. They found the “inherited wisdom” to be true globally and useful in 36 of the 37 developed and emerging markets they studied. They reported the Sell in May effect tends to be particularly strong in European countries and is robust over time. Their sample evidence shows that in the UK the effect has been noticeable since 1694. They also reported, “While we have examined a number of possible explanations, none of these appears to explain the puzzle convincingly.”

Is it Reliable?

I didn’t go back as far as 1694 the way Sven and Ben did. And I didn’t collect data from emerging and developed markets around the globe. More pertinent to Channelchek readers is whether this strategy used on the U.S. markets has been worthwhile.

Data Source: Koyfin

The above chart is a compilation of average results for two six-month periods, May through October and November through April. It also looks at two different indexes, the largest stocks in the S&P 500 (blue shades) index and small-cap stocks of the Russell 2000 (orange shades).

What was discovered is that during the period, investors in either of these indexes would have had positive earnings during either “season.” So it supports “buy and hold” wisdom or, at least, staying invested. During the Halloween through May period, the smallcap Russell returned 8.60%, while during the other six months, performance was a weaker 2.92%. The S&P 500 maintained consistent averages in the low 5% area for either period.

What Have the Results Been?

Since the turn of the century, investors would have fared better if they bought stocks represented in the small-cap average after Halloween, then moved to S&P 500 stocks in May. Below are the results of the 21 periods. The highest returns of either index occurred during the latest Halloween to May cycle. It was the small-cap index that measured a 45.76% gain. The index also measured the second-highest gain during the Sell in May 2004 measurement period. The Sell in May small-cap index also can claim the two lowest performance numbers.

Data Source: Koyfin

Take-Away

The Halloween strategy says that investors should be fully invested in stocks from November through April, and out of stocks from May through October. Variations of this strategy and its accompanying axioms have been around for over a century. Looking at the last 21 years, a deviation that would have paid off would have been moving to small-caps after Halloween.

Both “seasons,” for both measured indexes had positive average earnings. So the notion of staying fully invested is supported using recent data.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek