Haynes International (HAYN) – Lowering Fiscal Year 2024 Estimates; Rating Remains Outperform


Wednesday, January 10, 2024

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updating estimates. We have lowered our first quarter, second quarter and full year fiscal 2024 earnings per share estimates to $0.70, $1.04, and $4.25 from $0.83, $1.16, and $4.50, respectively. Our full year EBITDA estimate has been reduced to $96.1 million from $100.3 million. The revisions are due mostly to a negative first quarter impact from fluctuations in raw materials prices which we think could extend beyond the first quarter. While the first quarter is typically the company’s weakest, the company made some operational upgrades which may also have impacted efficiency and the mix of products sold during the quarter. Our third and fourth quarter fiscal year 2024 estimates are unchanged.

Impact of falling commodity prices. Raw material price fluctuations can impact Haynes’ results due to its product portfolio being solely high-end nickel and cobalt-based alloys. Production of these alloys generate a significant amount of scrap which is recycled but puts the commodity price risk associated with the scrap on the company and has an impact when market prices change. During the first quarter of fiscal 2024, nickel and cobalt futures prices fell 11.2% and 13.0%, respectively. Following the company’s fourth quarter 2023 earnings release on November 16 through the end of the quarter, nickel and cobalt future prices declined 3.6% and 13.1%, respectively, and have continued to weaken into January. As a reference point, Haynes’ fiscal year ends on September 30.


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Haynes International (HAYN) – Updating Estimates; Outlook Remains Favorable


Monday, November 20, 2023

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023 financial results. Haynes reported fourth-quarter net income of $13.1 million or $1.02 per share compared to $16.3 million or $1.30 per share during the prior year period. Fiscal year 2023 net income was $42.0 million or $3.26 per share compared to $45.1 million or $3.57 per share during the prior period. We had forecast fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023 net income of $12.4 million and $41.1 million, respectively, or $0.97 per share and $3.22 per share. Compared to the prior year periods, fourth quarter and fiscal year net revenues increased by 11.7% and 20.3%, respectively, to $160.6 million and $590.0 million. On a year-over-year basis, the product average selling price during the fourth quarter and fiscal year increased 11.5% and 14.9%, respectively. Fiscal year 2023 adjusted EBITDA increased to $79.0 million compared to $77.4 million in fiscal year 2022.

Updating estimates. While our 2024 EPS estimate remains $4.50, we have made some quarterly adjustments. Revenue and earnings in the first quarter of fiscal 2024 are expected to be higher compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2023, but lower than the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023. First quarter results are generally lower due to holidays and planned equipment maintenance. Additionally, management expects commodity price fluctuations to have a greater negative impact in the first quarter of fiscal 2024 than in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023. We project fiscal 2024 EBITDA of $100.3 million compared to our $104.3 million estimate.


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Haynes International (HAYN) – Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Surpass Our Expectations


Friday, November 17, 2023

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023 financial results. Haynes International reported fourth quarter net income of $13.1 million or $1.02 per share compared to $16.3 million or $1.30 per share during the prior year period. Fiscal year 2023 net income was $42.0 million or $3.26 per share compared to $45.1 million or $3.57 per share during the prior period. We had forecast fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023 net income of $12.4 million and $41.1 million, respectively, or $0.97 per share and $3.22 per share. Compared to the prior year periods, fourth quarter and fiscal year net revenues increased by 11.7% and 20.3%, respectively, to $160.6 million and $590.0 million. On a year-over year basis, the product average selling price during the fourth quarter and fiscal year increased 11.5% and 14.9%, respectively. Fiscal year 2023 adjusted EBITDA increased to $79.0 million compared to $77.4 million in fiscal year 2022.

Strong order backlog. Compared to the September 2022 quarter, the company’s order backlog increased 23.2% to $460.4 million although it declined by $7.7 million compared to the prior quarter. Haynes added production headcount and invested in inventory to increase shipping levels and net revenue. The strong order backlog has been driven by strength in aerospace and industrial gas turbine demand.


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Haynes International (HAYN) – Refining 2023 Estimates


Friday, November 10, 2023

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updating estimates. We have trimmed our fiscal year 2023 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $80.6 million and $3.22 from $81.2 million and $3.25 per share. Our estimates reflect lower gross margins during the September quarter due to the negative impact of raw material fluctuations. Our September EBITDA and EPS estimates were lowered to $23.2 million and $0.97 from $23.7 million and $1.00. We are making no changes to our 2024 estimates and expect Haynes to provide guidance for fiscal 2024 when it reports results for fiscal year 2023. We still expect the September quarter will be Haynes’ strongest of the fiscal year in terms of volumes shipped, net revenues, and earnings.

Strong order backlog. Orders during the June quarter resulted in a record backlog of $468.1 million and represented a 4.8% increase compared to the prior quarter and a 38.4% increase on a year-over-year basis. Backlog pounds increased 3.2% during the third quarter to approximately 14.6 million pounds and increased 20.7% compared to the prior year period driven by strong demand in the aerospace and industrial gas turbine markets. In our view, the strong order book is indicative of the company’s strong competitive position and favorable outlook.


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Haynes International (HAYN) – Lowering Near-Term Estimates; Outlook Remains Favorable


Monday, September 25, 2023

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updating estimates. We have lowered our fiscal year 2023 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $81.2 million and $3.25 per share from $82.0 million and $3.30 per share. Our estimates reflect lower gross margins during the September quarter due to the negative impact of raw material fluctuations, primarily for nickel and cobalt. We have reduced our 2024 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $104.3 million and $4.50 per share from $106.8 million and $4.65. Our revised 2024 estimates reflect seasonality and more conservative sales volume growth assumptions albeit at modestly higher margins. The first quarter of each fiscal year is typically Haynes’ lowest revenue and earnings quarter due in part to holidays and planned maintenance.

Strong order backlog. Orders during the June quarter resulted in a record backlog of $468.1 million and represented a 4.8% increase compared to the prior quarter and a 38.4% increase on a year-over-year basis. Backlog pounds increased 3.2% during the third quarter to approximately 14.6 million pounds and increased 20.7% compared to the prior year period driven by strong demand in the aerospace and industrial gas turbine markets. In our view, the strong order book is indicative of the company’s strong competitive position and favorable outlook.


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Haynes International (HAYN) – Third Quarter Earnings Were Modestly Above Our Expectations; Outlook Remains Favorable


Monday, August 07, 2023

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Third quarter financial results.  Haynes International reported third quarter fiscal 2023 net income of $8.8 million, or $0.68 per share compared to $15.6 million, or $1.24 per share, during the prior year period and $12.3 million, or $0.96 per share, during the prior quarter. We had forecast net income of $8.5 million or $0.67 per share. Revenues of $143.9 million increased 10.6% on a year-over-year basis but declined 5.8% compared to the prior quarter. A cybersecurity incident negatively impacted net revenues by an estimated $18 to $20 million. Lower production compressed gross margin and earnings were also impacted by costs associated with the investigation and restoration efforts. In total, the company estimates the impact of the event to be $0.40 to $0.45 per diluted share. Earnings were also negatively impacted by raw material fluctuations, primarily for cobalt, which resulted in a $0.09 per share impact.

Updating estimates. Management expects shipments, net revenues, and earnings during the fourth quarter to be the highest of the fiscal year. Anticipating a negative fourth quarter impact from fluctuations in raw materials prices, we have adjusted our 2023 EBITDA, net income, and EPS estimates to $82.0 million, $42.1 million, and $3.30 from $82.6, $43.2 million, and $3.40, respectively. We forecast 2024 EBITDA, net income, and EPS of $106.8 million, $59.1 million, and $4.65.


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Haynes International (HAYN) – Third Quarter Earnings Were Modestly Above Our Expectations


Friday, August 04, 2023

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Third quarter financial results. Haynes International reported third quarter fiscal 2023 net income of $8.8 million or $0.68 per share compared to $15.6 million or $1.24 per share during the prior year period and $12.3 million or $0.96 per share during the prior quarter. We had forecast net income of $8.5 million or $0.67 per share. Revenues of $143.9 million increased 10.6% on a year-over-year basis but declined 5.8% compared to the prior quarter. A June cybersecurity incident negatively impacted net revenues by an estimated $18 to $20 million and earnings per share by $0.40 to $0.45. Earnings were also negatively impacted by raw material fluctuations, primarily for cobalt, which resulted in a $0.09 per share impact. The prior year period benefited from a raw material tailwind of $0.25 per diluted share.

Growing order backlog. Orders during the quarter resulted in a record backlog of $468.1 million as of June 30th and represented a 4.8% increase compared to the prior quarter and a 38.4% increase on a year-over-year basis. Backlog pounds increased 3.2% during the third quarter to approximately 14.6 million pounds and increased 20.7% compared to the prior year period driven by strong demand in the aerospace and industrial gas turbine markets.


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Haynes International (HAYN) – Lowering Near-Term Estimates; Outlook Remains Favorable


Friday, July 21, 2023

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Network outage disrupts shipments. Beginning on June 10th, Haynes experienced a cyber-driven network outage that negatively impacted the company’s operations and caused delays in product shipments. By June 21st, the company’s manufacturing operations were restored along with substantially all administrative, sales, financial, and customer service functions.

Third quarter company guidance. Haynes estimates that net revenues for the quarter were impacted by approximately $18 million to $20 million resulting in third quarter net sales of $142 million to $145 million. Lower production compressed gross margin and earnings were also impacted by costs associated with the investigation and restoration efforts. In total, Haynes estimates the full earnings impact to be in the range of $0.40 to $0.45 per share. Additionally, the negative impact from raw material fluctuations, primarily for cobalt, is estimated to have a negative earnings impact of $0.09 per share. The company estimates third quarter earnings per share will be in the range of $0.65 to $0.70.


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Haynes International (HAYN) – Lowering Estimates to Reflect Near-Term Impact of a Cyberattack


Tuesday, June 27, 2023

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Cyberattack disrupts shipments. On June 10th, Haynes experienced a cyber-driven network outage. By June 21st, the company’s manufacturing operations were restored along with administrative, sales, financial, and customer service functions. While Haynes has not quantified the full financial impact, the event caused some delay in product shipments.

Updating estimates. We have lowered our June quarter adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates to $22.8 million and $0.97 per share from $26.5 million and $1.19 per share. Our full year fiscal 2023 EBITDA and EPS estimates have been lowered to $89.6 million and $3.82 per share from $93.3 million and $4.04 per share. Our estimates assume 10 days of lost shipments. While these will likely be made up in future quarters, it may take some time for shipments to normalize given that the company has been operating at high capacity driven by a strong order book. We have not adjusted our fourth quarter fiscal year 2023 or fiscal year 2024 estimates.


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Haynes International (HAYN) – Favorable Outlook Driven by Growing Demand and Margin Strength


Tuesday, May 09, 2023

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Second quarter financial results. Second quarter net income increased 45.6% to $12.3 million, or $0.96 per share (EPS), compared to the prior year period and rose 59.6% compared to the first quarter of fiscal year 2023. Revenues of $152.8 million increased 30.5% on a year-over-year basis and grew 15.2% compared to the prior quarter. The estimated impact from raw material volatility during the quarter resulted in a $1.7 million headwind that compressed gross margin by 1.1% to 20.2%. Adjusted EBITDA increased 38.4% to $22.4 million compared to $16.2 million during the prior year period and rose 37.0% compared to $16.4 million during the prior quarter.

Updating estimates. Management expects earnings in the third quarter to be higher than the second quarter and continues to expect fiscal 2023 earnings to be 15% to 20% higher than during fiscal year 2022. To err on the side of conservatism, we have trimmed our fiscal 2023 EBITDA, net income and EPS estimates to $93.3 million, $51.4 million, and $4.04, respectively, from $94.3 million, $53.1 million, and $4.18. Our revised net income estimate represents 15.1% growth year-over-year compared to 18.9% previously. Our 2024 EBITDA, net income, and EPS estimates are $106.8 million, $60.8 million, and $4.80, respectively.


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Haynes International (HAYN) – Favorable Outlook Driven by a Strong Order Backlog


Friday, May 05, 2023

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Second quarter financial results. Second quarter net income increased 45.6% to $12.3 million, or $0.96 per share (EPS), compared to the prior year period and rose 59.6% compared to the first quarter of fiscal year 2023. We had forecast net income of $12.9 million or $1.02 per share. Revenues of $152.8 million increased 30.5% on a year-over-year basis and grew 15.2% compared to the prior quarter. The estimated impact from raw material volatility during the quarter resulted in a $1.7 million headwind that compressed gross margin by 1.1% to 20.2%. Gross profit of $30.9 million was modestly higher than our estimate of $30.1 million although SG&A and interest expenses were also greater than our projections.

Growing order backlog. Orders during the quarter resulted in a record backlog of $446.7 million as of March 31 and represented a 9.4% increase compared to the prior quarter and a 59.2% increase on a year-over-year basis. Backlog pounds increased 3.9% during the second quarter to approximately 14.1 million pounds and increased 33.1% compared to the prior year period driven by strong demand in the aerospace and industrial gas turbine markets.


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Haynes International (HAYN) – Uniquely Positioned to Benefit from Growing Demand for High-Performance Alloys


Thursday, February 16, 2023

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating. Haynes International, Inc., headquartered in Kokomo, Indiana, is one of the world’s largest developers, producers, and distributors of advanced high-performance nickel- and cobalt-based alloys. Haynes’ products, which are sold primarily to companies in the aerospace, chemical processing, and industrial gas turbine industries, consist of high-temperature resistant alloy (HTA) and corrosion-resistant alloy (CRA) products.

Track record of innovation. Founded in 1912, Haynes has a track record of pioneering many well-known nickel- and cobalt-based super alloys. In fiscal 2022, 59% of the company’s revenues were from alloys the company invented. Haynes currently has 20 published U.S. patents and applications. Approximately 27% of its product margin dollars were from proprietary alloys that no one else produces due to Haynes’ patent protection and/or processing technology and expertise. Since 2003, Haynes’ technical programs have yielded nine new proprietary alloys.


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