Saga Communications, Inc. (SGA) – A New Saga Premiers


Tuesday, August 01, 2023

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations, television stations and state radio networks. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 26 markets, including 61 FM and 30 AM radio stations, 3 state radio networks, 2 farm radio networks, 5 television stations and 4 low power television stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio and television stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Classic Hits, Adult Contemporary, Active Rock, Oldies, News/Talk, Country and Classical. Saga’s television stations are affiliated with CBS and Fox in Joplin, MO; CBS in Greenville, MS; ABC, Fox, NBC, Telemundo and Univision in Victoria, TX. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on the NYSE Amex under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Non-deal Roadshow highlights. On July 27, Chris Forgy, CEO, and Sam Bush, CFO, hosted investor meetings in St. Louis.  We believe that the management team was sanguine about favorable revenue and cash flow growth prospects. This report highlights the company’s resilient local radio operations, strong balance sheet and emergent digital revenues.  

Strong local presence.  The company operates primarily in small and midsize markets outside the top 50. We believe its highly localized footprint provides more revenue stability relative to its nationally focused peers. Additionally, we believe its strong local relationships will assist in accelerating digital revenue growth. Notably, management highlighted its commitment to local audiences, given its ethos is grounded in localism.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Cumulus Media (CMLS) – Some Hopeful Signs Total Revenues Are Stabilizing


Monday, July 31, 2023

Cumulus Media (NASDAQ: CMLS) is an audio-first media company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. Cumulus Media engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 406 owned-and-operated radio stations across 86 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, CNN, the AP, the Academy of Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across more than 9,500 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through the Cumulus Podcast Network, its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. Cumulus Media provides advertisers with personal connections, local impact and national reach through broadcast and on-demand digital, mobile, social, and voice-activated platforms, as well as integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, full-service audio solutions, industry-leading research and insights, and live event experiences. Cumulus Media is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees. For more information visit www.cumulusmedia.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q2 operating results. The company reported quarterly revenue of $210.1 million, in line with our estimate of $208.3 million.  While National/Network advertising remains weak, Local advertising has some greenshoots particularly with Digital Marketing Services revenue. Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was $28.7 million, beating our estimate of $21.8 million by an impressive 32%, excluding a $2 million nonrecurring benefit. The adj. EBITDA surprise was attributed to aggressive cost cutting efforts. 

Positive DMS outlook. Digital Marketing Services performed strongly, with revenue up 21% in the latest quarter. Management believes there is significant untapped growth potential in local DMSand is tripling its salesforce. Management anticipates an increase of 3x to 4x its current revenue run rate of $40 million in the next few years. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Cumulus Media (CMLS) – Steps Up To The Plate Again


Monday, May 15, 2023

Cumulus Media (NASDAQ: CMLS) is an audio-first media company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. Cumulus Media engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 406 owned-and-operated radio stations across 86 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, CNN, the AP, the Academy of Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across more than 9,500 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through the Cumulus Podcast Network, its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. Cumulus Media provides advertisers with personal connections, local impact and national reach through broadcast and on-demand digital, mobile, social, and voice-activated platforms, as well as integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, full-service audio solutions, industry-leading research and insights, and live event experiences. Cumulus Media is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees. For more information visit www.cumulusmedia.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Announces tender offer. On May 12, the company announced that it commenced a modified Dutch auction tender offer to purchase up to $10 million of shares of its Class A common stock. The offer is being made under the company’s previously announced $50 million share repurchase program. The offer begins on May 12, and will expire on June 9, 2023 at 12:00 A.M EST. 

Terms of the Offer. The offer allows shareholders to decide how many shares they are willing to sell at a given price. The price range in the offer is $3.25 to $2.85 per share, and is not conditioned on any minimum amount of shares being tendered. All shares purchased in the offer will be purchased at the same price regardless of tendered price. Additionally, the company reserves the right to change the per share purchase price, and offer an additional 2% of its outstanding Class A common shares without amending or extending the offer. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Salem Media Group (SALM) – Looking Beyond The Investment Year


Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Salem Media Group is America’s leading multimedia company specializing in Christian and conservative content, with media properties comprising radio, digital media and book and newsletter publishing. Each day Salem serves a loyal and dedicated audience of listeners and readers numbering in the millions nationally. With its unique programming focus, Salem provides compelling content, fresh commentary and relevant information from some of the most respected figures across the Christian and conservative media landscape.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

In-line Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $63.5 million, beating our estimate of $62 million by 2.4%.  Revenue in the quarter was driven by slightly better than expected broadcast and publishing revenues. Adj. EBITDA of $1.4 million was largely in line with our estimate of $1.7 million. 

Sizeable cost reductions. The company eliminated $5 million in annualized costs in the first quarter. The savings were included in management issued guidance for Q2 and full year 2023, and are expected to have an equal impact in each quarter moving forward. We believe that the company is managing cash flow while investing in its Digital businesses and into Salem News. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Gray Television (GTN) – Compelling Total Return Potential


Tuesday, May 09, 2023

Gray Television is a multimedia company headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. We are the nation’s largest owner of top-rated local television stations and digital assets in the United States. Our television stations serve 113 television markets that collectively reach approximately 36 percent of US television households. This portfolio includes 80 markets with the top-rated television station and 100 markets with the first and/or second highest rated television station. We also own video program companies Raycom Sports, Tupelo Honey, PowerNation Studios and Third Rail Studios.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q1 results. The company reported quarterly revenue of $801 million, 2.9% better than our estimate of $778.5 million, and adj. EBITDA of $162 million, which was in line with our estimate. Results are illustrated in Figure #1 Q1 Results. While all business segments reported stronger than expected revenues, political revenues of $8 million was the biggest surprise versus our estimate of $2 million. 

Favorable advertising momentum. In spite of the macroeconomic headwinds core advertising is pacing ahead of last year. We believe that a good portion of its positive advertising momentum is coming from revenue synergies. In addition, Auto advertising appears to be rebounding, pacing up double-digits. Looking ahead, the company is also likely to benefit from annual Net Retransmission revenue growth, when it renews 58% of its MVPD contracts later this year. Moreover, management expects Net Retransmission revenue growth to accelerate in 2024. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Gray Television (GTN) – Core Advertising Is Outpacing Its Peers


Monday, May 08, 2023

Gray Television is a multimedia company headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. We are the nation’s largest owner of top-rated local television stations and digital assets in the United States. Our television stations serve 113 television markets that collectively reach approximately 36 percent of US television households. This portfolio includes 80 markets with the top-rated television station and 100 markets with the first and/or second highest rated television station. We also own video program companies Raycom Sports, Tupelo Honey, PowerNation Studios and Third Rail Studios.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q1 results. The company reported quarterly revenue of  $801 million, 2.9% better than our estimate of $778.5 million, and adj. EBITDA of $162 million, which was in line with our estimate. Results are illustrated in Figure #1 Q1 Results. While all business segments reported stronger than expected revenues, political revenues of $8 million was the biggest surprise versus our estimate of $2 million. 

Favorable momentum. In spite of the macroeconomic headwinds, Q2 core advertising pacing is up a surprising 4%. We believe that a good portion of its positive advertising momentum is coming from revenue synergies. In addition, Auto advertising appears to be rebounding, pacing up double-digits. Looking ahead, the company is also likely to benefit from annual Net Retransmission revenue growth, when it renews the majority of its MVPD contracts later this year. Moreover, management expects Net Retransmission revenue growth to accelerate in 2024.  


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

E.W. Scripps (SSP) – Strong Retransmission Revenue Growth Offsets Some Headwinds


Monday, May 08, 2023

The E.W. Scripps Company (NASDAQ: SSP) is a diversified media company focused on creating a better-informed world. As one of the nation’s largest local TV broadcasters, Scripps serves communities with quality, objective local journalism and operates a portfolio of 61 stations in 41 markets. The Scripps Networks reach nearly every American through the national news outlets Court TV and Newsy and popular entertainment brands ION, Bounce, Defy TV, Grit, ION Mystery, Laff and TrueReal. Scripps is the nation’s largest holder of broadcast spectrum. Scripps runs an award-winning investigative reporting newsroom in Washington, D.C., and is the longtime steward of the Scripps National Spelling Bee. Founded in 1878, Scripps has held for decades to the motto, “Give light and the people will find their own way.”

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q1 results. The company reported quarterly revenue of $527.8 million, in-line with our estimate of $531.5 million. Adj. EBITDA of $75.9 million in the quarter was 6% lower than our estimate of $80.8 million, attributed to lower than expected stock based compensation. 

Favorable retransmission renewal. The company renewed 26% of its pay TV households in Q1, with a total of 75% of pay TV households up for renewal this year. As such, we expect strong Retrans revenue growth of 14% which should offset some of the headwinds from weak National and Direct Response advertising. Retransmission revenue is expected to be 50% of TV revenue and 30% of ttotal company revenue in 2023.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Cumulus Media (CMLS) – Still Looking For The Advertising Trough


Friday, April 28, 2023

Cumulus Media (NASDAQ: CMLS) is an audio-first media company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. Cumulus Media engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 406 owned-and-operated radio stations across 86 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, CNN, the AP, the Academy of Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across more than 9,500 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through the Cumulus Podcast Network, its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. Cumulus Media provides advertisers with personal connections, local impact and national reach through broadcast and on-demand digital, mobile, social, and voice-activated platforms, as well as integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, full-service audio solutions, industry-leading research and insights, and live event experiences. Cumulus Media is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees. For more information visit www.cumulusmedia.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Meets Q1 expectations. The company reported Q1 revenue of $205.7 million, in line with our previously lowered estimate of $206.4 million. National advertising revenues remained weak in the quarter, largely attributed to persistent macro economic headwinds. Adj. EBITDA of $10.3 million beat our estimate, which we believe was the lowest on the Street, a result of the company’s cost cutting initiatives and healthy growth of digital revenues.

Weak Q2 pacings. Q2 revenues are expected to be impacted by weakening Local advertising, down 4% in Q1 and pacing down 7% in Q2, in addition to double digit declines in National. A bright spot is digital marketing services (DMS), pacing up double digits in Q2. Total company revenue pacings are down low double digits for Q2.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Beasley Broadcast Group (BBGI) – Delivers A Solid Quarter


Thursday, April 27, 2023

Beasley Broadcast Group, Inc. owns and operates 61 stations (47 FM and 14 AM) in 15 large- and mid-size markets in the United States. Approximately 20 million consumers listen to the Company’s radio stations weekly over-the-air, online and on smartphones and tablets, and millions regularly engage with the Company’s brands and personalities through digital platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, text messaging, digital and web applications and email. The Overwatch League’s Houston Outlaws esports team is a wholly owned subsidiary. The Company also owns BeasleyXP, a national esports content hub, and AXLR-R8, a Rocket League Championship Series team, in its esports portfolio. For more information, please visit www.bbgi.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q1 results. The company reported revenue of $57.8 million and adj. EBITDA of $2.8 million, beating our upwardly revised estimates by 1.8% and 6.3%, respectively. The better than expected results were driven by strong digital revenue of $10 million, an increase of 27% from the prior year period, and $4.3 million in sports betting advertising. 

Robust digital growth. From Q1 2019 to Q1 2023, the company grew digital revenue at a CAGR of 30% and now Digital represents 17% of total company revenue. Given the anticipated strong digital revenue growth, management appears to be on target for Digital to be 20% to 30% of total revenue for full year 2023, and 40% in 2024. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Channelchek Takeaway Series – NAB Show

Takeaways from the National Association of Broadcasters’ NAB Show

All videos now live on demand!

The Takeaway Series is available exclusively to Channelchek members. It’s totally free to join the community, just click the join button at the top of the page, or the Register button below. For best results, log in to your Channelchek account above before viewing the videos.

Noble Capital Markets Senior Research Analyst Michael Kupinski provides his takeaways from the 2023 NAB Show.

Watch the Video

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Beasley Broadcast Group (BBGI)

CEO Caroline Beasley
CFO Marie Tedesco

Watch the Video

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Cumulus Media (CMLS)

EVP, Strategy & Development Collin Jones

Watch the Video

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E.W. Scripps (SSP)

CEO Adam Symson
CFO Jason Combs

Watch the Video

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Entravision (EVC)

Interim CEO Chris Young

Watch the Video

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Salem Media Group (SALM)

CEO David Santrella

Watch the Video

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Streann Media

CEO Giovanni Punzo

Watch the Video

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Super Hi-Fi

CEO Zack Zalon

Watch the Video

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Television Bureau of Advertising

CEO Steve Lanxano

Watch the Video

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Townsquare Media (TSQ)

CEO Bill Wilson

Watch the Video

Salem Media Group (SALM) – A Year Of Investing


Thursday, March 09, 2023

Salem Media Group is America’s leading multimedia company specializing in Christian and conservative content, with media properties comprising radio, digital media and book and newsletter publishing. Each day Salem serves a loyal and dedicated audience of listeners and readers numbering in the millions nationally. With its unique programming focus, Salem provides compelling content, fresh commentary and relevant information from some of the most respected figures across the Christian and conservative media landscape.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q4 beats expectations. The company reported revenue of $68.8 million, beating our estimate of $66.6 million by 3.3%. Adj. EBITDA of $7.3 million exceeded our estimate of $6 million by 21.3%. The favorable surprise in operating results was attributed to stronger than expected, high margin, political revenue of $2.1 million.

Favorable refinancing.  The company is issuing $44.7 million new 7.125% notes that mature in 2028 to replace its 6.75% notes due in 2024. The agreement would allow the company to access $4 million to pay down its revolver. The agreement is expected to close by the end of the month.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Gray Television (GTN) – Not Anticipating The R Word


Monday, February 27, 2023

Gray Television is a multimedia company headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. We are the nation’s largest owner of top-rated local television stations and digital assets in the United States. Our television stations serve 113 television markets that collectively reach approximately 36 percent of US television households. This portfolio includes 80 markets with the top-rated television station and 100 markets with the first and/or second highest rated television station. We also own video program companies Raycom Sports, Tupelo Honey, PowerNation Studios and Third Rail Studios.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q4. The company capped off a record Political revenue year with solid Q4 results. Revenue of $1.072 billion and Adj. EBITDA of $465 million compared favorably to our revenue forecast of $1.017 billion and our adj. EBITDA forecast of $397 million.

What recession? Management appears sanquine about the economic outlook for 2023 and its fundamentals. The company should benefit from favorable Retrans revenue growth from rate step-ups and contract renewals. Notably, 22% of the company’s MVPD contracts are up for renewal in Q1. Moreover, the company’s presence in small to medium sized markets means its advertising revenue is predominantly local, which has been less affected by the macroeconomic headwinds so far.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

E.W. Scripps (SSP) – Lowering Estimates On Weak National, Direct Response Ad Outlook


Monday, February 27, 2023

The E.W. Scripps Company (NASDAQ: SSP) is a diversified media company focused on creating a better-informed world. As one of the nation’s largest local TV broadcasters, Scripps serves communities with quality, objective local journalism and operates a portfolio of 61 stations in 41 markets. The Scripps Networks reach nearly every American through the national news outlets Court TV and Newsy and popular entertainment brands ION, Bounce, Defy TV, Grit, ION Mystery, Laff and TrueReal. Scripps is the nation’s largest holder of broadcast spectrum. Scripps runs an award-winning investigative reporting newsroom in Washington, D.C., and is the longtime steward of the Scripps National Spelling Bee. Founded in 1878, Scripps has held for decades to the motto, “Give light and the people will find their own way.”

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Slight miss in Q4. Q4 revenue of $680.9 million was in line with our estimate of $684 million. Adj. EBITDA of $208.2 million was 2.7% below our estimate of $214 million. Notably, Core advertising was down 11% in the quarter, which was primarily attributed to political advertising displacement.

Distribution revenue to bolster results. Management expects distribution revenue to grow in the low-teens percentage range for full year 2023 attributed to 75% of its subscribers to be renewed this year.


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This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.