Salem Media Group (SALM) – Its Back Is Against The Wall, But…


Wednesday, August 09, 2023

Salem Media Group is America’s leading multimedia company specializing in Christian and conservative content, with media properties comprising radio, digital media and book and newsletter publishing. Each day Salem serves a loyal and dedicated audience of listeners and readers numbering in the millions nationally. With its unique programming focus, Salem provides compelling content, fresh commentary and relevant information from some of the most respected figures across the Christian and conservative media landscape.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Soft Q2 results. Revenues of $65.8 million were better than our $64.2 million estimate, driven by improved Digital Media and Publishing revenue. Adj. EBITDA of $2.7 million was below our $3.8 million estimate, reflecting higher than expected expenses as the company continues heightened investments to ramp its digital businesses. 

Lowering full year 2023 adj. EBITDA estimate. Flowing through the Q2 results and our Q3 and Q4 revisions, we are largely maintaining our full year 2023 revenue estimate at $261.6 million and lowering our full year 2023 adj. EBITDA estimate from $18.5 million to $16.1 million. We are maintaining our full year 2024 adj. EBITDA estimate of $26.9 million at this time, which conservatively anticipates an influx of roughly $6.8 million in high margin Political advertising. 


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Saga Communications, Inc. (SGA) – The Prettiest One At The Dance


Wednesday, August 09, 2023

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations, television stations and state radio networks. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 26 markets, including 61 FM and 30 AM radio stations, 3 state radio networks, 2 farm radio networks, 5 television stations and 4 low power television stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio and television stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Classic Hits, Adult Contemporary, Active Rock, Oldies, News/Talk, Country and Classical. Saga’s television stations are affiliated with CBS and Fox in Joplin, MO; CBS in Greenville, MS; ABC, Fox, NBC, Telemundo and Univision in Victoria, TX. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on the NYSE Amex under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q2 results. Solid Q2 revenue of $29.2 million was 1.7% better than our estimate of $28.7 million. Adj. EBITDA in quarter was $5.8 million, beating our estimate of $5.2 million by 12%. While total revenue was down a modest 2.2% year over year, there were some strong greenshoots: National advertising increased 12%, Non-Traditional Revenue increased 10% and Digital revenue increased an impressive 17%. 

Favorable digital growth trajectory. The company’s digital segment had a strong performance and now comprises 9% of total company revenue. Notably, e-commerce was particularly strong, with revenue growth of over 100%. Additionally, the company is expanding its online newspaper, Clarksville Now, in two new markets. We believe the company’s favorable digital initiatives could accelerate digital revenue growth over the next several quarters. 


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Gray Television (GTN) – Leading The Industry


Tuesday, August 08, 2023

Gray Television is a multimedia company headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. We are the nation’s largest owner of top-rated local television stations and digital assets in the United States. Our television stations serve 113 television markets that collectively reach approximately 36 percent of US television households. This portfolio includes 80 markets with the top-rated television station and 100 markets with the first and/or second highest rated television station. We also own video program companies Raycom Sports, Tupelo Honey, PowerNation Studios and Third Rail Studios.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q2 results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $813 million, better than our estimate of $802 million; adj. EBITDA in the quarter was $225 million, beating our estimate of $187 million by 20%. Notably, Local and National core advertising revenues performed strongly, increasing in the low single-digits from the prior year period. 

Positive momentum. In our view, the company’s Local and National core advertising growth was impressive, with many industry peers reporting declines. Notably, management highlighted that National and Local advertising are pacing up in Q3 as well. We believe the company has favorable operating momentum, given its resilient advertising revenues and expected influx of political revenue later this year and in 2024.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Gray Television (GTN) – Core Advertising Outshines The Industry


Monday, August 07, 2023

Gray Television is a multimedia company headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. We are the nation’s largest owner of top-rated local television stations and digital assets in the United States. Our television stations serve 113 television markets that collectively reach approximately 36 percent of US television households. This portfolio includes 80 markets with the top-rated television station and 100 markets with the first and/or second highest rated television station. We also own video program companies Raycom Sports, Tupelo Honey, PowerNation Studios and Third Rail Studios.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q2 results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $813 million, a tad better than our estimate of $802 million; adj. EBITDA in the quarter was $225 million, beating our estimate of $187 million by 20%. Q2 results are Illustrated in Figure #1 Results. Notably, Local and National core advertising revenues performed strongly, increasing in the low single-digits from the prior year period. Additionally, Political revenue in the quarter was a strong $12 million, beating our estimate of $6 million by 100%.

Positive momentum.  In our view, the company’s Local and National advertising growth was impressive, with many industry peers reporting declines. Notably, management highlighted that National and Local advertising are pacing up in Q3 as well. We believe the company has favorable operating momentum, given its resilient advertising revenues and expected influx of political revenue later this year and in 2024.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

E.W. Scripps (SSP) – A Temporary Hurdle


Monday, August 07, 2023

The E.W. Scripps Company (NASDAQ: SSP) is a diversified media company focused on creating a better-informed world. As one of the nation’s largest local TV broadcasters, Scripps serves communities with quality, objective local journalism and operates a portfolio of 61 stations in 41 markets. The Scripps Networks reach nearly every American through the national news outlets Court TV and Newsy and popular entertainment brands ION, Bounce, Defy TV, Grit, ION Mystery, Laff and TrueReal. Scripps is the nation’s largest holder of broadcast spectrum. Scripps runs an award-winning investigative reporting newsroom in Washington, D.C., and is the longtime steward of the Scripps National Spelling Bee. Founded in 1878, Scripps has held for decades to the motto, “Give light and the people will find their own way.”

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Beats expectations. The company reported a solid second quarter, beating both our revenue and adj. EBITDA estimates. Total company revenues decreased a modest 2.0% to $582.8 million, versus our $572.5 million estimate. Combined with the revenue improvement and the lower expenses, adj. EBITDA of $120.9 million was well above our $90 million estimate. 

Is the worst behind us? The upside revenue variance was due to stronger than expected National Media revenues, $231.2 million versus our $217.0 million estimate. The latest results marked a sequential quarterly improvement from a Q1 decline of 9.5% to a more modest 3.2% decline in Q2. While Q3 guidance is not as hopeful, management indicated that scatter prices are improving for its Network business. 


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Beasley Broadcast Group (BBGI) – Digital Revenues Carry The Quarter


Friday, August 04, 2023

Beasley Broadcast Group, Inc. owns and operates 61 stations (47 FM and 14 AM) in 15 large- and mid-size markets in the United States. Approximately 20 million consumers listen to the Company’s radio stations weekly over-the-air, online and on smartphones and tablets, and millions regularly engage with the Company’s brands and personalities through digital platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, text messaging, digital and web applications and email. The Overwatch League’s Houston Outlaws esports team is a wholly owned subsidiary. The Company also owns BeasleyXP, a national esports content hub, and AXLR-R8, a Rocket League Championship Series team, in its esports portfolio. For more information, please visit www.bbgi.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q2 results. The company reported revenue of $63.5 million, in-line with our estimate of $63.7 million. Adj. EBITDA of $7.7 million, beat our estimate of $6.5 million by 18.2%. Notably, the quarter was driven by strong digital revenue growth of 14.8% and cash flow was supported by meaningful cost reductions and permanently reduced headcount. 

Strong digital growth. The bulk of digital revenue growth in the quarter came from high margin content creation on the company’s owned and operated platforms. Importantly, Q2 digital accounted for 19.4% of total revenue, only slightly below management’s target of 20% to 30% for full year 2023.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Saga Communications, Inc. (SGA) – A New Saga Premiers


Tuesday, August 01, 2023

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations, television stations and state radio networks. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 26 markets, including 61 FM and 30 AM radio stations, 3 state radio networks, 2 farm radio networks, 5 television stations and 4 low power television stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio and television stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Classic Hits, Adult Contemporary, Active Rock, Oldies, News/Talk, Country and Classical. Saga’s television stations are affiliated with CBS and Fox in Joplin, MO; CBS in Greenville, MS; ABC, Fox, NBC, Telemundo and Univision in Victoria, TX. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on the NYSE Amex under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Non-deal Roadshow highlights. On July 27, Chris Forgy, CEO, and Sam Bush, CFO, hosted investor meetings in St. Louis.  We believe that the management team was sanguine about favorable revenue and cash flow growth prospects. This report highlights the company’s resilient local radio operations, strong balance sheet and emergent digital revenues.  

Strong local presence.  The company operates primarily in small and midsize markets outside the top 50. We believe its highly localized footprint provides more revenue stability relative to its nationally focused peers. Additionally, we believe its strong local relationships will assist in accelerating digital revenue growth. Notably, management highlighted its commitment to local audiences, given its ethos is grounded in localism.


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Cumulus Media (CMLS) – Some Hopeful Signs Total Revenues Are Stabilizing


Monday, July 31, 2023

Cumulus Media (NASDAQ: CMLS) is an audio-first media company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. Cumulus Media engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 406 owned-and-operated radio stations across 86 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, CNN, the AP, the Academy of Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across more than 9,500 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through the Cumulus Podcast Network, its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. Cumulus Media provides advertisers with personal connections, local impact and national reach through broadcast and on-demand digital, mobile, social, and voice-activated platforms, as well as integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, full-service audio solutions, industry-leading research and insights, and live event experiences. Cumulus Media is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees. For more information visit www.cumulusmedia.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q2 operating results. The company reported quarterly revenue of $210.1 million, in line with our estimate of $208.3 million.  While National/Network advertising remains weak, Local advertising has some greenshoots particularly with Digital Marketing Services revenue. Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was $28.7 million, beating our estimate of $21.8 million by an impressive 32%, excluding a $2 million nonrecurring benefit. The adj. EBITDA surprise was attributed to aggressive cost cutting efforts. 

Positive DMS outlook. Digital Marketing Services performed strongly, with revenue up 21% in the latest quarter. Management believes there is significant untapped growth potential in local DMSand is tripling its salesforce. Management anticipates an increase of 3x to 4x its current revenue run rate of $40 million in the next few years. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Cumulus Media (CMLS) – Steps Up To The Plate Again


Monday, May 15, 2023

Cumulus Media (NASDAQ: CMLS) is an audio-first media company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. Cumulus Media engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 406 owned-and-operated radio stations across 86 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, CNN, the AP, the Academy of Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across more than 9,500 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through the Cumulus Podcast Network, its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. Cumulus Media provides advertisers with personal connections, local impact and national reach through broadcast and on-demand digital, mobile, social, and voice-activated platforms, as well as integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, full-service audio solutions, industry-leading research and insights, and live event experiences. Cumulus Media is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees. For more information visit www.cumulusmedia.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Announces tender offer. On May 12, the company announced that it commenced a modified Dutch auction tender offer to purchase up to $10 million of shares of its Class A common stock. The offer is being made under the company’s previously announced $50 million share repurchase program. The offer begins on May 12, and will expire on June 9, 2023 at 12:00 A.M EST. 

Terms of the Offer. The offer allows shareholders to decide how many shares they are willing to sell at a given price. The price range in the offer is $3.25 to $2.85 per share, and is not conditioned on any minimum amount of shares being tendered. All shares purchased in the offer will be purchased at the same price regardless of tendered price. Additionally, the company reserves the right to change the per share purchase price, and offer an additional 2% of its outstanding Class A common shares without amending or extending the offer. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Salem Media Group (SALM) – Looking Beyond The Investment Year


Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Salem Media Group is America’s leading multimedia company specializing in Christian and conservative content, with media properties comprising radio, digital media and book and newsletter publishing. Each day Salem serves a loyal and dedicated audience of listeners and readers numbering in the millions nationally. With its unique programming focus, Salem provides compelling content, fresh commentary and relevant information from some of the most respected figures across the Christian and conservative media landscape.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

In-line Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $63.5 million, beating our estimate of $62 million by 2.4%.  Revenue in the quarter was driven by slightly better than expected broadcast and publishing revenues. Adj. EBITDA of $1.4 million was largely in line with our estimate of $1.7 million. 

Sizeable cost reductions. The company eliminated $5 million in annualized costs in the first quarter. The savings were included in management issued guidance for Q2 and full year 2023, and are expected to have an equal impact in each quarter moving forward. We believe that the company is managing cash flow while investing in its Digital businesses and into Salem News. 


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Gray Television (GTN) – Compelling Total Return Potential


Tuesday, May 09, 2023

Gray Television is a multimedia company headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. We are the nation’s largest owner of top-rated local television stations and digital assets in the United States. Our television stations serve 113 television markets that collectively reach approximately 36 percent of US television households. This portfolio includes 80 markets with the top-rated television station and 100 markets with the first and/or second highest rated television station. We also own video program companies Raycom Sports, Tupelo Honey, PowerNation Studios and Third Rail Studios.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q1 results. The company reported quarterly revenue of $801 million, 2.9% better than our estimate of $778.5 million, and adj. EBITDA of $162 million, which was in line with our estimate. Results are illustrated in Figure #1 Q1 Results. While all business segments reported stronger than expected revenues, political revenues of $8 million was the biggest surprise versus our estimate of $2 million. 

Favorable advertising momentum. In spite of the macroeconomic headwinds core advertising is pacing ahead of last year. We believe that a good portion of its positive advertising momentum is coming from revenue synergies. In addition, Auto advertising appears to be rebounding, pacing up double-digits. Looking ahead, the company is also likely to benefit from annual Net Retransmission revenue growth, when it renews 58% of its MVPD contracts later this year. Moreover, management expects Net Retransmission revenue growth to accelerate in 2024. 


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Gray Television (GTN) – Core Advertising Is Outpacing Its Peers


Monday, May 08, 2023

Gray Television is a multimedia company headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. We are the nation’s largest owner of top-rated local television stations and digital assets in the United States. Our television stations serve 113 television markets that collectively reach approximately 36 percent of US television households. This portfolio includes 80 markets with the top-rated television station and 100 markets with the first and/or second highest rated television station. We also own video program companies Raycom Sports, Tupelo Honey, PowerNation Studios and Third Rail Studios.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q1 results. The company reported quarterly revenue of  $801 million, 2.9% better than our estimate of $778.5 million, and adj. EBITDA of $162 million, which was in line with our estimate. Results are illustrated in Figure #1 Q1 Results. While all business segments reported stronger than expected revenues, political revenues of $8 million was the biggest surprise versus our estimate of $2 million. 

Favorable momentum. In spite of the macroeconomic headwinds, Q2 core advertising pacing is up a surprising 4%. We believe that a good portion of its positive advertising momentum is coming from revenue synergies. In addition, Auto advertising appears to be rebounding, pacing up double-digits. Looking ahead, the company is also likely to benefit from annual Net Retransmission revenue growth, when it renews the majority of its MVPD contracts later this year. Moreover, management expects Net Retransmission revenue growth to accelerate in 2024.  


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

E.W. Scripps (SSP) – Strong Retransmission Revenue Growth Offsets Some Headwinds


Monday, May 08, 2023

The E.W. Scripps Company (NASDAQ: SSP) is a diversified media company focused on creating a better-informed world. As one of the nation’s largest local TV broadcasters, Scripps serves communities with quality, objective local journalism and operates a portfolio of 61 stations in 41 markets. The Scripps Networks reach nearly every American through the national news outlets Court TV and Newsy and popular entertainment brands ION, Bounce, Defy TV, Grit, ION Mystery, Laff and TrueReal. Scripps is the nation’s largest holder of broadcast spectrum. Scripps runs an award-winning investigative reporting newsroom in Washington, D.C., and is the longtime steward of the Scripps National Spelling Bee. Founded in 1878, Scripps has held for decades to the motto, “Give light and the people will find their own way.”

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q1 results. The company reported quarterly revenue of $527.8 million, in-line with our estimate of $531.5 million. Adj. EBITDA of $75.9 million in the quarter was 6% lower than our estimate of $80.8 million, attributed to lower than expected stock based compensation. 

Favorable retransmission renewal. The company renewed 26% of its pay TV households in Q1, with a total of 75% of pay TV households up for renewal this year. As such, we expect strong Retrans revenue growth of 14% which should offset some of the headwinds from weak National and Direct Response advertising. Retransmission revenue is expected to be 50% of TV revenue and 30% of ttotal company revenue in 2023.


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