Bitcoin Becoming a More Entrenched Asset, But What Kind?

Almost No One Uses Bitcoin as Currency, New Data Proves. It’s Actually More Like Gambling

In recent weeks the asset status of Bitcoin has gained additional legitimacy as an asset but has done little to bolster any claim that it is a medium of exchange for goods and services. Does this matter? A Senior Lecturer on Economics and Society shares his thoughts on the present and future of Bitcoin and how that compares with its promise. – Paul Hoffman, Managing Editor, Channelchek

Bitcoin boosters like to claim Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies, are becoming mainstream. There’s a good reason to want people to believe this.

The only way the average punter will profit from crypto is to sell it for more than they bought it. So it’s important to talk up the prospects to build a “fear of missing out”.

There are loose claims that a large proportion of the population – generally in the range of 10% to 20% – now hold crypto. Sometimes these numbers are based on counting crypto wallets, or on surveying wealthy people.

But the hard data on Bitcoin use shows it is rarely bought for the purpose it ostensibly exists: to buy things.

Little Use for Payments

The whole point of Bitcoin, as its creator “Satoshi Nakamoto” stated in the opening sentence of the 2008 white paper outlining the concept, was that:

A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.

The latest data demolishing this idea comes from Australia’s central bank.

Every three years the Reserve Bank of Australia surveys a representative sample of 1,000 adults about how they pay for things. As the following graph shows, cryptocurrency is making almost no impression as a payments instrument, being used by no more than 2% of adults.

Payment Methods Being Used by Australians

Reserve Bank calculations of Australians’ awareness vs use of different payment methods, based on Ipsos data.

By contrast more recent innovations, such as “buy now, pay later” services and PayID, are being used by around a third of consumers.

These findings confirm 2022 data from the US Federal Reserve, showing just 2% of the adult US population made a payment using a cryptocurrrency, and Sweden’s Riksbank, showing less than 1% of Swedes made payments using crypto.

The Problem of Price Volatility

One reason for this, and why prices for goods and services are virtually never expressed in crypto, is that most fluctuate wildly in value. A shop or cafe with price labels or a blackboard list of their prices set in Bitcoin could be having to change them every hour.

The following graph from the Bank of International Settlements shows changes in the exchange rate of ten major cryptocurrencies against the US dollar, compared with the Euro and Japan’s Yen, over the past five years. Such volatility negates cryptocurrency’s value as a currency.

Cryptocurrency’s Volatile Ways

90-day rolling standard deviation of daily returns for major cryptocurrencies compared with the Euro and Yen. The Crypto Multiplier, BIS Working Papers, No. 1104CC BY

There have been attempts to solve this problem with so-called “stablecoins”. These promise to maintain steady value (usually against the US dollar).

But the spectacular collapse of one of these ventures, Terra, once one of the largest cryptocurrencies, showed the vulnerability of their mechanisms. Even a company with the enormous resources of Facebook owner Meta has given up on its stablecoin venture, Libra/Diem.

This helps explain the failed experiments with making Bitcoin legal tender in the two countries that have tried it: El Salvador and the Central African Republic. The Central African Republic has already revoked Bitcoin’s status. In El Salvador only a fifth of firms accept Bitcoin, despite the law saying they must, and only 5% of sales are paid in it.

Storing Value, Hedging Against Inflation

If Bitcoin’s isn’t used for payments, what use does it have?

The major attraction – one endorsed by mainstream financial publications – is as a store of value, particularly in times of inflation, because Bitcoin has a hard cap on the number of coins that will ever be “mined”.

As Forbes writers argued a few weeks ago:

In terms of quantity, there are only 21 million Bitcoins released as specified by the ASCII computer file. Therefore, because of an increase in demand, the value will rise which might keep up with the market and prevent inflation in the long run.

The only problem with this argument is recent history. Over the course of 2022 the purchasing power of major currencies (US, the euro and the pound) dropped by about 7-10%. The purchasing power of a Bitcoin dropped by about 65%.

Speculation or Gambling?

Bitcoin’s price has always been volatile, and always will be. If its price were to stabilize somehow, those holding it as a speculative punt would soon sell it, which would drive down the price.

But most people buying Bitcoin essentially as a speculative token, hoping its price will go up, are likely to be disappointed. A BIS study has found the majority of Bitcoin buyers globally between August 2015 and December 2022 have made losses.

The “market value” of all cryptocurrencies peaked at US$3 trillion in November 2021. It is now about US$1 trillion.

Bitcoins’s highest price in 2021 was about US$60,000; in 2022 US$40,000 and so far in 2023 only US$30,000. Google searches show that public interest in Bitcoin also peaked in 2021. In the US, the proportion of adults with internet access holding cryptocurrencies fell from 11% in 2021 to 8% in 2022.

UK government research published in 2022 found that 52% of British crypto holders owned it as a “fun investment”, which sounds like a euphemism for gambling. Another 8% explicitly said it was for gambling.

The UK parliament’s Treasury Committee, a group of MPs who examine economics and financial issues, has strongly recommended regulating cryptocurrency as form of gambling rather than as a financial product. They argue that continuing to treat “unbacked crypto assets as a financial service will create a ‘halo’ effect that leads consumers to believe that this activity is safer than it is, or protected when it is not”.

Whatever the merits of this proposal, the UK committtee’s underlying point is solid. Buying crypto does have more in common with gambling than investing. Proceed at your own risk, and and don’t “invest” what you can’t afford to lose.

This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of, John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra.

About the Bitcoin to $1 Million by Summer 2023 Wager

Image Credit: Fortune Brainstorm TECH (Flickr)

Are Balaji Srinivasan and Cathie Wood Right About the Future Value of Bitcoin?

The former Chief Technology Officer (CTO) of Coinbase, is either extremely bullish on Bitcoin, or has other reasons for his tweet that had set off a huge price jump in the cryptocurrency. Balaji Srinivasan is a very influential investor, especially in the tech space. He confirmed last Friday, belief in a bet he made in March that within 90 days, bitcoin would reach $1 million in value per token. At stake in the bet is $2 million. For crypto investors trying to understand the strong conviction going into the wager, they may first need to understand the person behind the tweet.

Who is Balaji Srinivasan

The Indian-born, U.S. raised, tech entrepreneur, investor, and academic has a Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering and an MS in Chemical Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Srinivasan co-founded a number of startups, including Earn.com which is blockchain payments platform, and the genomics company Counsyl. He has worked as a General Partner at a prominent Silicon Valley venture capital firm, and as the Chief Technology Officer at the crypto exchange, Coinbase. 

Srinivasan has a large following as a commentator on the subject of technology and its social and political implications. Popular topics of his numerous articles and talks include the future of technology, the rise of decentralized systems, and the potential impact of emerging technologies on society. The tech guru has lectured at Stanford University and has served as an advisor to the FDA and the World Economic Forum.

Twitter: @balajis

What is Behind this Forecast?

In an ARK Invest podcast last Friday (April 6), Srinivasan explained bitcoin has good momentum and that he still believes it will reach $ 1 million within a three-month time horizon. He cited the concerns over the regional banking crisis that he believes will destabilize the dollar and cause the Fed to dump more dollars into the system. Fear and inflation in the coming months is the driver. Cathie Wood agreed with the direction and potential for bitcoin to hit $1 million, but her reasons were a bit different. She believes fear will be one driver, but reiterated her call for deflation. “We are very positive about Bitcoin as well. But your forecast was in the context of hyperinflation associated with fiat currencies. Our optimism is more of a function of fears of deflation and counter-party risk. Both of those should accrue to Bitcoin’s benefit,” Wood explained in her company’s podcast.

The bet and the likelihood that bitcoin-will-hit-$1-million-by-summer prediction seems on the surface to be highly improbable. It would take immense capital flows into the cryptocurrency and there is doubt the exchanges would be able to handle the migration of assets. Also, the question of what would prompt the run from traditional currency to cause a skyrocketing bitcoin, has still not been satisfactorily defined.

The one-hour and 17-minute podcast available at the link below under “Sources” is nonetheless thought provoking. These are two well-regarded tech analysts, standing behind something that sounds outlandish.

Another possible explanation for his outward conviction is that this isn’t a risky bet for Balaji. He’s presumed to own a considerable amount of bitcoin. The tick up on news of his bet (bitcoin is up near 25% since his tweet) could more than offset a $2 million loss on the wager. The timing of the value increase in BTC makes it appear that any loss could be self-funded by the attention it may have given the cryptocurrency.

Take Away

Bitcoin is higher than it had been when tech guru Balaji Srinivasan placed his public wager. However, at $28,500 it would still have to rise by $971,500. over the next few months. Supporting the idea that bitcoin is going up substantially, are two tech and disruption gurus whose thoughts are worth considering alongside your own observations.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://ark-invest.com/podcasts/

https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2023/04/01/balaji-srinivasans-1m-bitcoin-bet-could-be-right-but-i-hope-hes-wrong/

TAAL Distributed Information Technologies (TAALF) – A Take Private Proposal


Thursday, November 03, 2022

TAAL Distributed Information Technologies Inc. delivers value-added blockchain services, providing professional-grade, highly scalable blockchain infrastructure and transactional platforms to support businesses building solutions and applications upon the BitcoinSV platform, and developing, operating, and managing distributed computing systems for enterprise users.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Going Private. Yesterday, TAAL announced it had entered into an agreement with its largest shareholder, Calvin Ayre, for Mr. Ayre to take the Company private at a price of CAD$1.07/sh (about US$0.78/sh at the current exchange rate). The price represents about a 39.9% premium to the 10-day volume weighted average price. At first glance, the proposed price appears to be slightly below the average EV/S multiple of the crypto mining peer group, using our financial model, which has not been updated to include 3Q22 results as they have yet to be released.

Details. The transaction has unanimous approval by a Special Committee of independent directors and the full Board. A special shareholders meeting is scheduled for late December 2022. The transaction requires approval by two thirds of the votes cast by shareholders, excluding Mr. Ayre. Closing is expected shortly following the Special Meeting.


Get the Full Report

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Planned Changes for a Greener Blockchain Leaves Uncertainties

Image Credit: Edwin Chewin (Flickr)

The Ethereum Merge Could Kick Off a Transformation in Crypto’s Battered Reputation

Cryptocurrencies might still be a very long way from their highs of 2021, but some of the major ones have staged some decent recoveries in the past couple of months. Notably ether (ETH), the second largest cryptocurrency after bitcoin, is trading at almost $US1,700 (£1,463) at the time of writing, having dropped as low as $US876 in mid-June.

Ether, which was created by Canadian/Russian programmer Vitalik Buterin, is the cryptocurrency used for transactions on Ethereum, the leading platform on which developers can applications using blockchain technology.

Blockchains are online ledgers that run without been controlled by any single company. Much of these applications revolve around smart contracts, which are automated contracts that remove the need for intermediaries such as lawyers and are seen as having huge potential for the future.

Ether Price ($US)

Source: Trading View

One of the main catalysts for ether’s rebound has been the Ethereum merge, a huge project to change the way the underlying blockchain operates. Where transactions on Ethereum are currently validated using an energy-intensive system known as proof-of-work (PoW), in which lots of very powerful computers compete to solve complex mathematical puzzles, from around September 15 it will shift to a new system known as proof of stake (PoS).

PoS basically means that transactions on the blockchain will be validated not by all these computations but by a network of investors whose commitment is demonstrated by the fact that they own at least 32 ether (yours for about $US54,000).

The idea is that this gives them an economic incentive to enhance the security of the network, and are therefore very unlikely to try and sabotage it. Whereas bitcoin transactions all depend on PoW, lots of newer cryptocurrencies use PoS, including Ethereum rivals such as Solana and Cardano.

Going Green

When the Ethereum merge takes place, power consumption on the blockchain will be reduced by 99%. Since it is currently the most used blockchain in terms of transactions, this will save a huge amount of electricity each year, corresponding to Chile’s power consumption.

As a result of the merge, some analysts expect ether to overtake bitcoin as the leading crypto in terms of the total value of all the coins (in crypto circles this is referred to as the “flippening”). Ether is currently worth just over US$204 billion, while bitcoin is worth US$396 billion.

Bitcoin vs Ether

Bitcoin = yellow, Ether = blue. Trading View

Until now, cryptocurrencies and bitcoin in particular have suffered from a bad reputation. Bitcoin was initially conceived with the egalitarian goal of allowing investors access to a financial system with no need for banks and with money that isn’t controlled by countries. It has been championed for its ability to enable billions of people without bank accounts to transact online, and to facilitate things like microfinance and ultra-cheap cross-border trading.

Yet bitcoin has come to be associated with environmental degradation and criminal activities. The mainstream media has endlessly linked the leading cryptocurrency – and by extension the whole space – with money laundering, online drug dealing, Ponzi schemes and exchange hacking.

Netflix documentaries have further reinforced this negative public image. Recent scandals in the crypto world, such as the fall of Ethereum rival Luna and the bankruptcy of Celsius and other crypto lenders, have not helped either.

One major consequence has been that major financial institutions like investment banks and pension funds have been cautious of ploughing money into this space, despite the leap forward in technology that blockchains represent.

But if the most widely adopted crypto platform successfully shifts to PoW in the coming days, many believe that this will overcome the biggest institutional objection and see much more money flowing into the space (there are already early signs, such as Fidelity’s new crypto fund for retail investors). This is likely to accelerate the global regulatory framework that would minimise undesirable activities.

By closing down the environmental objections to crypto, other advantages to ether are likely to come to the fore. The merge will offer a return to investors in the form of rewards in exchange for locking up their money for a period of time (“staking”).

Although you need to stake 32 ether to become one of the network’s validators, numerous companies have set up systems to enable smaller investors to pool their money so that they can participate. For example, Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, offers investors 6% annual percentage yield for pooled staking on ether.

Staking will therefore create a win-win situation with guaranteed returns and a very liquid system that makes it easy for people to move their money in and out of ether. This will further enhance the appeal of ether and PoS cryptos in general.

This could help to accentuate other positives around crypto, another of which is humanitarian donations. When Russia invaded Ukraine, for instance, the Ukrainian government called for donations in bitcoin and ether to support its efforts against invaders. This quickly attracted substantial amounts of money.

Tonga was similarly successful with a campaign after its volcanic eruption earlier this year. By being able to cross borders easily and cheaply, cryptocurrencies are the ideal vehicle for international donations.

Lingering Uncertainties

All that said, it is uncertain how the Ethereum blockchain will function after the merge in terms of transaction speeds and costs. One major problem with Ethereum in the past has been that transactions have been ludicrously expensive, sometimes running to thousands of US dollars at peak times in 2021.

The developers of the Ethereum Foundation do not expect the merge to make a big difference in these respects (currently “gas” fees are averaging between $US1 and $US4 per transaction depending on which platform you are using). Much more important is likely to be another shift in ethereum’s journey to “Ethereum 2.0” known as sharding, which is due to happen in 2023.

We will also have to wait and see how smooth the merge is. Synchronisation and update bugs could see problems such as validators disconnected from the blockchain. Negative stories like these could see investors staying away for fear of instability. But on the whole, while the merge will not be a miraculous event, it could help improve the image of cryptocurrencies and attract institutional and retail investors. At a time when sustainable investing is increasingly high priority, the ether merge and its attractive returns have the potential to put ether at the top of the list.

This article was republished  with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of Jean-Philippe Serbera, Senior Lecturer in Banking And Financial Markets, Sheffield Hallam University.