Cathie Wood’s leading ARK Innovation ETF is exhibiting increasing technical weakness that threatens to push shares lower. The fund, known for its disruptive growth stocks, is flashing multiple sell signals after a sharp slide from summer highs.
ARKK delivered incredible gains through much of the past two years as Wood’s pandemic picks like Zoom, Teladoc and Roku surged. But the ETF has stumbled hard since peaking in February 2021, giving back almost 75% of its value.
After showing some resiliency this year, ARKK is now facing its most ominous setup yet. The ETF hit a 52-week high in mid-July but has trended steadily lower since, carving out a series of lower highs and lower lows.
This price action forms a textbook downtrend, with each bounce failing at lower levels. ARKK just sank to its weakest point since May after rejecting its 200-day moving average as resistance.
Adding to the woes, the 50-day moving average has been bending lower in a negative slope. The ETF closed Tuesday a stark 11% below its 50-day line, a clear sell signal in technical analysis. ARKK is also nearing its 2021 low just above $35, presenting major support.
Bearish momentum is apparent across indicators. The relative strength line has plunged sharply since August, reflecting severe underperformance versus the S&P 500. The on-balance volume line is also heading decisively lower.
Plus, the Accumulation/Distribution Rating, which gauges institutional buying and selling activity, sits at a dismal D- for ARKK. The up/down volume ratio shows selling swamping buying to the tune of a 0.6 ratio over the past 50 days.
ARKK’s top components have crumbled in tandem. Major positions Tesla, Zoom, Roku, Coinbase and Block are all deeply in the red over the past month. The lone bright spot is Exact Sciences, maker of a colon cancer screening test, up over 30%.
But weak action in former stars like Tesla and Zoom is a big weight, compounding growing doubts over their long-term growth outlooks. ARKK’s 11% allocation to struggling Tesla looks increasingly problematic.
Of course, periods of underperformance are inevitable even among top growth managers. ARKK still shows a solid 21% gain in 2022 when many indexes remain negative. So this could prove just a dry spell for Wood’s strategy.
However, with the economy potentially rolling over, the prospects for unprofitable growth stocks look even more precarious. This environment may lead investors to shift focus towards more defensive small and micro caps as well as emerging growth names.
ARKK’s technically damaged chart highlights the perils of sticking with high-valuation names in a deteriorating macro climate. For now, it continues to exhibit a troubling technical breakdown as it retests the 2021 lows. Given the backdrop, its chart damage signals additional volatility is still ahead.
Cathie Wood forged a glowing reputation in 2020’s frenzied rebound but is undergoing a brutal reality check. With ARKK flashing multiple sell signals, the next leg lower could further test the resilience of Wood’s innovation approach.