| Key Points: – US stocks rise as inflation data meets forecasts, supporting a potential December Fed rate cut. – Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows annual inflation at 2.6% with core inflation at 3.3%, aligning with expectations. – FedWatch tool indicates 80% likelihood of a rate cut in December, reinforcing investor confidence. |
US stocks gained in Wednesday afternoon trading as the latest consumer inflation report aligned with expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose by approximately 0.4%, recovering from previous session losses, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) saw increases of about 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) also continued its bullish trend, climbing 5% to over $92,000 per coin as investors maintained optimism in the digital asset market.
The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported a 2.6% year-over-year increase, with core inflation — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — rising by 3.3%. Both monthly and annual inflation rates met analyst forecasts, with core inflation edging up 0.3% month-over-month. These figures suggest that inflation may be stabilizing, a welcome development for the Fed as it considers a rate cut to support economic growth.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari commented on the importance of inflation data for upcoming Fed policy decisions. He stated that while the numbers are in line with expectations, any unexpected rise in inflation could influence the Fed’s approach. The latest CME FedWatch tool data indicates an 80% chance of a December rate cut, as traders expect the Fed to act cautiously in light of recent economic and inflation trends.
Looking at broader market factors, post-election economic optimism has slowed somewhat as investors consider the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s policy promises on inflation and growth. Concerns over rising borrowing costs due to increased Treasury yields have tempered market enthusiasm, adding some caution to the economic outlook. However, the inflation data provides a clearer backdrop for the Fed, likely keeping it on a path toward reducing rates next month, which could help offset higher yields and bolster economic activity.
Investors continue to keep a close eye on inflation as well as any signals from the Fed. With the markets increasingly expecting rate cuts, the stability of inflation numbers may provide confidence for both consumers and businesses as they plan for 2024. Meanwhile, the growing strength of assets like bitcoin reflects a broader trend of investor confidence across diverse sectors.
As the year winds down, the stock market will closely monitor any changes in inflation, economic data, and Fed commentary, which will likely guide trading activity into 2024.