| Key Points: – Retail fund inflows into Novo Nordisk surged 32-fold to $15.6 million after weaker-than-expected drug trial results caused a 27% stock drop. – The weight-loss drug market, led by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, is projected to surpass $150 billion in revenue over the next decade. – Retail investors view the sell-off as a buying opportunity, showcasing confidence in Novo’s long-term potential despite short-term setbacks. |
Retail investors have flocked to Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) following the release of underwhelming results for its experimental weight-loss drug, CagriSema. U.S. retail fund inflows into the Danish pharmaceutical giant surged by an unprecedented 32-fold on Friday, reaching $15.6 million from just $0.49 million the day before, according to Vanda Research.
The spike in retail activity was triggered by a 27% drop in Novo’s share price, erasing over $100 billion in market value. The data revealed that CagriSema helped patients achieve a 22.7% weight reduction, falling short of the anticipated 25%. Despite the disappointing results, retail investors saw the sharp decline as a rare buying opportunity for one of the most prominent players in the burgeoning weight-loss drug market.
Shares of Novo Nordisk closed at $81.50 on Friday, marking their lowest level since August 2023 and dipping below the S&P 500 performance for the first time in two years. Marco Iachini, senior vice president of research at Vanda, commented, “Retail investors love to buy dips, especially in popular stocks, and do so until that doesn’t work anymore.”
The weight-loss drug market, projected to surpass $150 billion in revenue within the next decade, has been dominated by Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. Despite Novo’s dip, its rival Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) has consistently outpaced Novo in retail flows during the latter half of 2024.
Retail purchases of Eli Lilly peaked in August, when its weight-loss drug sales exceeded $1 billion for the quarter, prompting a $3 billion forecast increase. Analysts believe this demonstrates the robust retail appetite for weight-loss-related stocks, even as their activity in these companies lags behind tech giants like Nvidia and Tesla.
The retail influx into Novo on Friday likely provided institutional investors with an exit strategy amid the sell-off. Vanda data shows retail fund inflows for Novo previously reached a high of $23.5 million in March 2024, following positive data from its amycretin drug.
Sel Hardy, vice president of equity research at CFRA, highlighted the growing retail interest in healthcare stocks like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, driven by their prominence in the GLP-1 drug market. “With their GLP-1 product in the market and Eli Lilly being a lot in the news, a lot of retail investors know about Lilly,” Hardy said.
For investors eyeing future entry points, Hardy noted that recent sell-offs in healthcare stocks, such as Lilly’s dips in October and November, have historically presented attractive opportunities.
Despite Novo Nordisk’s sharp drop, the company remains a leader in the weight-loss sector, and Friday’s retail activity underscores continued investor confidence in its long-term potential. The healthcare sector’s prominence in the weight-loss market ensures that stocks like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly will remain key focal points for retail investors seeking opportunities in a rapidly expanding industry.