Washington braces for its first potential government shutdown under House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s speakership as the fiscal year-end nears on September 30. The high-stakes funding clash represents an early test of McCarthy’s ability to lead a fractious Republican majority.
The face-off caps months of growing friction between McCarthy and the hardline House Freedom Caucus that helped install him as Speaker in January. To gain their votes, McCarthy pledged he would not advance spending bills without “majority of the majority” Republican backing.
That concession has now put McCarthy in a bind as the shutdown deadline approaches without a funding agreement in place. The Freedom Caucus is demanding McCarthy leverage the must-pass spending legislation to cut budgets and advance conservative policies, like defunding the FBI.
However, McCarthy knows Senate Democrats would never accept such ideological provisions. And a prolonged government shutdown could batter the fragile economy while eroding public faith in governance competence.
With only days remaining, McCarthy weighs risky options without easy solutions. Scheduling a vote on a stripped-down continuing resolution to temporarily extend current funding would break his promise to the Freedom Caucus.
Yet refusing to hold a vote risks blame for an unpopular shutdown. McCarthy also considers putting a Senate-passed funding bill to a House floor vote, prompting Freedom Caucus warnings that doing so would incite calls for his ouster.
The Speaker urgently needs to unify Republicans behind a way forward. But McCarthy must balance the Freedom Caucus’ demands against the consequences of failing to avert a shutdown.
Navigating these pressures will test McCarthy’s ability to govern a narrow 222-seat majority. It will also gauge whether he can effectively steer the party into the 2024 elections amid internal divisions.
With only 18% of Americans supporting shutdowns over policy disputes according to polls, McCarthy likely wants to avoid a disruptive funding lapse. A 2013 closure lasting 16 days is estimated to have shaved 0.2-0.6% from economic growth that quarter.
From furloughing 800,000 federal workers to suspending services, even a short shutdown could batter public trust in leadership. The military’s over 1.3 million active duty members would see pay disrupted. National Parks could close, impacting over 297 million annual visitors.
The high-risk brinkmanship highlights the difficulty McCarthy faces satisfying the party’s warring moderate and Freedom Caucus wings. Finding a solution that keeps government open while saving face with hardliners will prove a true test of McCarthy’s political dexterity.
Past shutdowns under divided government have tended to end once public pressure mounted on the blamed party. While Republicans control the House, most fault would land on them for manufacturing a crisis.
Yet McCarthy cannot disregard the Freedom Caucus, whose backing enabled his ascension to power. The days ahead will reveal whether McCarthy has the savvy to extricate the GOP from a crisis partly of its own making.
McCarthy’s handling of the funding impasse will set the tone for his entire speakership. At stake is nothing less than his ability to govern, deliver on promises, and prevent self-inflicted wounds entering 2024.
 |