Tuesday, January 5, 2021
Energy Industry Report
Energy 2020-4Q Review and Outlook
Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to end of report for Analyst Certification & Disclosures
- Oil prices rose sharply beginning in November but are still well below levels at the start of the year. Oil prices continued to rebound from the sharp drop seen in the first quarter as investor enthusiasm about a Coronavirus vaccine pushed prices higher. WTI oil prices began the quarter in the mid thirties and finished the quarter near $47.50/BBL. Near-month oil futures prices are locked in a narrow range near current spot prices. Prices are still well below beginning-of-the-year prices near $60 per barrel.
- Natural gas prices had risen but have fallen in recent weeks due to warm weather. Natural Gas prices also rose during the quarter although they have slipped in recent weeks. Recent weakness reflects significantly warmer-than-normal weather. Population-weighted heating degree days were 21% warmer than the 10-year trailing average in the month of November and similar to historical averages in December. As a result of warm weather, natural gas in storage ended the year at all-time high levels for this time of year and 2.6% above the trailing five-year average.
- Energy stocks climbed 27% in the quarter mirroring the performance of oil prices. Energy stocks, as measured by the XLE Energy Index, rose alongside oil prices climbing 27% during the quarter. The rise began in November when oil prices rose. Even with the strong performance in the fourth quarter, however, the energy index was down 38% in 2020. This compares to a 14% rise in the overall market.
- The near-term outlook for energy stocks has improved but we still have long-term concerns. The rebound in oil prices came faster than expected. We have been adjusting our models to reflect higher prices but are maintaining our long-term oil price forecast of $50 per barrel and $2.50 per mcf. Our near-term outlook for energy stocks has improved. We expect companies to report favorable results for the next few quarters unless rising production pushes energy prices lower. Longer-term, we have concern that oil demand will be constrained by power generation competition from renewable energy and decreased demand for gasoline and diesel due to a growth in electric vehicles. At the same time, supply pressure from an increasingly active OPEC and continued drilling productivity will mean lower energy prices.
Oil Prices
Oil prices continued to rebound from the sharp drop seen in the first quarter as investor enthusiasm about a Coronavirus vaccine pushed prices higher. WTI prices began the quarter in the mid thirties and finished the quarter near $47.50/BBL. Near-month oil futures prices are locked in a narrow range near current spot prices. Prices are still well below beginning-of-the-year prices near $60 per barrel. Interestingly, drilling had not resumed by the end of the year. Baker Hughes reported 351 active rigs in the United States as of December 31, less than half the number from a year ago. Consequently, domestic production has not changed. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that domestic oil production rose a modest 2.7% between September and November (the last month available) and attributes the increase largely to hurricane-disrupted wells coming back online. We would expect to see production expand in upcoming months with increased drilling.
Natural Gas Prices
Natural Gas prices also rose during the quarter although they have slipped in recent weeks. Recent weakness reflects significantly warmer-than-normal weather. Population-weighted heating degree days were 21% warmer than the 10-year trailing average in the month of November and similar to historical averages in December. As a result of warm weather, natural gas in storage ended the year at all-time high levels for this time of year and 2.6% above the trailing five-year average. Natural gas futures prices show prices rising modestly as the futures curve extends into the spring.
Energy Stocks
Energy stocks, as measured by the XLE Energy Index, rose alongside oil prices climbing 27% during the quarter. The chart below shows that the strength in energy stocks began in November, the exact time that oil prices began to rise. The performance in the quarter far outpaced the overall market. Even with the strong performance in the fourth quarter, however, the energy index was down 38% in 2020. This compares to a 14% rise in the overall market.
Outlook
The rebound in oil prices came faster than expected. We have been adjusting our models to reflect higher prices but are maintaining our long-term oil price forecast of $50 per barrel and $2.50 per mcf. Energy companies should start reporting positive cash flow at these prices and increasing drilling budgets. That said, marginal wells will most likely not be drilled, and production growth will be difficult unless we see prices rise back to a level near $60/bbl. and $3.00/mcf. Companies must continue to work to lower costs to adjust to current prices by finetuning drilling techniques.
Our near-term outlook for energy stocks has improved. We expect companies to report favorable results for the next few quarters unless rising production pushes energy prices lower. Longer-term, we have concern that oil demand will be constrained by power generation competition from renewable energy and decreased demand for gasoline and diesel due to a growth in electric vehicles. At the same time, supply pressure from an increasingly active OPEC and continued drilling productivity will mean lower energy prices. We recommend investors stay focused on energy companies with solid balance sheets, low operating costs and protected prices.
GENERAL DISCLAIMERS
All statements or opinions contained herein that include the words “we”, “us”, or “our” are solely the responsibility of Noble Capital Markets, Inc. (“Noble”) and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with the company mentioned in this report. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. All information provided herein is based on public and non-public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio. The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on its own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision.
This publication is intended for information purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to buy/sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any security mentioned in this report, nor shall there be any sale of the security herein in any state or domicile in which said offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or domicile. This publication and all information, comments, statements or opinions contained or expressed herein are applicable only as of the date of this publication and subject to change without prior notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Noble accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Noble. This report is not to be relied upon as a substitute for the exercising of independent judgement. Noble may have published, and may in the future publish, other research reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information provided in this report. Noble is under no obligation to bring to the attention of any recipient of this report, any past or future reports. Investors should only consider this report as single factor in making an investment decision.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or discussed to another party, without the written consent of Noble Capital Markets, Inc. (“Noble”). Noble seeks to update its research as appropriate, but may be unable to do so based upon various regulatory constraints. Research reports are not published at regular intervals; publication times and dates are based upon the analyst’s judgement. Noble professionals including traders, salespeople and investment bankers may provide written or oral market commentary, or discuss trading strategies to Noble clients and the Noble proprietary trading desk that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report.
The majority of companies that Noble follows are emerging growth companies. Securities in these companies involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Noble research reports may not be suitable for some investors and as such, investors must take extra care and make their own determination of the appropriateness of an investment based upon risk tolerance, investment objectives and financial status.
Company Specific Disclosures
The following disclosures relate to relationships between Noble and the company (the “Company”) covered by the Noble Research Division and referred to in this research report.
Noble is not a market maker in any of the companies mentioned in this report. Noble intends to seek compensation for investment banking services and noninvestment banking services (securities and non-securities related) with any or all of the companies mentioned in this report within the next 3 months.
ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE
Senior Equity Analyst focusing on energy and utility stocks. 24 years of experience as an analyst. Chartered Financial Analyst©. MBA from Washington University in St. Louis and BA in Economics from Carleton College in Minnesota. Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst four times. Named Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst” three times. FINRA licenses 7, 63, 86, 87.
WARNING
This report is intended to provide general securities advice, and does not purport to make any recommendation that any securities transaction is appropriate for any recipient particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Prior to making any investment decision, recipients should assess, or seek advice from their advisors, on whether any relevant part of this report is appropriate to their individual circumstances. If a recipient was referred to by an investment advisor, that advisor may receive a benefit in respect of transactions effected on the recipients behalf, details of which will be available on request in regard to a transaction that involves a personalized securities recommendation. Additional risks associated with the security mentioned in this report that might impede achievement of the target can be found in its initial report issued by . This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose unless authorized by.
RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION
Independence Of View
All views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers.
Receipt of Compensation
No part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or views expressed in the public appearance and/or research report.
Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest
Neither I nor anybody in my household has a financial interest in the securities of the subject company or any other company mentioned in this report.
| NOBLE RATINGS DEFINITIONS | % OF SECURITIES COVERED | % IB CLIENTS |
| Outperform: potential return is >15% above the current price | 78% | 34% |
| Market Perform: potential return is -15% to 15% of the current price | 5% | 1% |
| Underperform: potential return is >15% below the current price | 0% | 0% |
NOTE: On August 20, 2018, Noble Capital Markets, Inc. changed the terminology of its ratings (as shown above) from “Buy” to “Outperform”, from “Hold” to “Market Perform” and from “Sell” to “Underperform.” The percentage relationships, as compared to current price (definitions), have remained the same.
Additional information is available upon request. Any recipient of this report that wishes further information regarding the subject company or the disclosure information mentioned herein, should contact Noble Capital Markets, Inc. by mail or phone.
Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
225 NE Mizner Blvd. Suite 150
Boca Raton, FL 33432
561-994-1191
Noble Capital Markets, Inc. is a FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) registered broker/dealer.
Noble Capital Markets, Inc. is an MSRB (Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board) registered broker/dealer.
Member – SIPC (Securities Investor Protection Corporation)
Report ID: 11924