Haynes International (HAYN) – Lowering Near-Term Estimates; Outlook Remains Favorable


Monday, September 25, 2023

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updating estimates. We have lowered our fiscal year 2023 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $81.2 million and $3.25 per share from $82.0 million and $3.30 per share. Our estimates reflect lower gross margins during the September quarter due to the negative impact of raw material fluctuations, primarily for nickel and cobalt. We have reduced our 2024 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $104.3 million and $4.50 per share from $106.8 million and $4.65. Our revised 2024 estimates reflect seasonality and more conservative sales volume growth assumptions albeit at modestly higher margins. The first quarter of each fiscal year is typically Haynes’ lowest revenue and earnings quarter due in part to holidays and planned maintenance.

Strong order backlog. Orders during the June quarter resulted in a record backlog of $468.1 million and represented a 4.8% increase compared to the prior quarter and a 38.4% increase on a year-over-year basis. Backlog pounds increased 3.2% during the third quarter to approximately 14.6 million pounds and increased 20.7% compared to the prior year period driven by strong demand in the aerospace and industrial gas turbine markets. In our view, the strong order book is indicative of the company’s strong competitive position and favorable outlook.


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