IRVING, Texas–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Salem Media Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: SALM) announced today the promotion of Andy Massingill to the position of Senior Director of Digital Sales. Jon Latzer, Vice President/General Manager of Salem Surround said, “Over the past three years, Andy has led his team to unprecedented revenue heights. His leadership across the Western Region played a significant factor in Salem’s overall revenue growth. In addition to Andy’s leadership for the Western Region, Andy will work closely with Chris Gould, Senior Vice President National Programming and Ministry Relations and all our National Ministry partners to better leverage our digital assets, generating more time with our quality audience while delivering outstanding results,” Latzer said.
“The last three years have been an incredible journey with Salem and the Western Region. I’m proud of our work, the work we will continue to do, and the relationships established across the board. I am very excited to work with Chris and our National Ministry partners who are at the core fabric of what Salem stands for,” said Massingill.
ABOUT SALEM MEDIA GROUP:
Salem Media Group is America’s leading multimedia company specializing in Christian and conservative content, with media properties comprising radio, digital media and book and newsletter publishing. Each day Salem serves a loyal and dedicated audience of listeners and readers numbering in the millions nationally. With its unique programming focus, Salem provides compelling content, fresh commentary and relevant information from some of the most respected figures across the Christian and conservative media landscape. Learn more about Salem Media Group, Inc. at www.salemmedia.com, Facebook and Twitter.
Image: Lung-on-a-Chip, National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (Flickr)
Organ-On-A-Chip Models Allow Researchers to Conduct Studies Closer to Real-Life Conditions – and Possibly Grease the Drug Development Pipeline
Bringing a new drug to market costs billions of dollars and can take over a decade. These high monetary and time investments are both strong contributors to today’s skyrocketing health care costs and significant obstacles to delivering new therapies to patients. One big reason behind these barriers is the lab models researchers use to develop drugs in the first place.
Preclinical trials, or studies that test a drug’s efficacy and toxicity before it enters clinical trials in people, are mainly conducted on cell cultures and animals. Both are limited by their poor ability to mimic the conditions of the human body. Cell cultures in a petri dish are unable to replicate every aspect of tissue function, such as how cells interact in the body or the dynamics of living organs. And animals are not humans – even small genetic differences between species can be amplified to major physiological differences.
Fewer than 8% of successful animal studies for cancer therapies make it to human clinical trials. Because animal models often fail to predict drug effects in human clinical trials, these late-stage failures can significantly drive up both costs and patient health risks.
To address this translation problem, researchers have been developing a promising model that can more closely mimic the human body – organ-on-a-chip.
This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of Chengpeng Chen, Assistant Professor of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Maryland, Baltimore County
As an analytical chemist, I have been working to develop organ and tissue models that avoid the simplicity of common cell cultures and the discrepancies of animal models. I believe that, with further development, organs-on-chips can help researchers study diseases and test drugs in conditions that are closer to real life.
What are Organs-On-Chips?
In the late 1990s, researchers figured out a way to layer elastic polymers to control and examine fluids at a microscopic level. This launched the field of microfluidics, which for the biomedical sciences involves the use of devices that can mimic the dynamic flow of fluids in the body, such as blood.
Advances in microfluidics have provided researchers a platform to culture cells that function more closely to how they would in the human body, specifically with organs-on-chips. The “chip” refers to the microfluidic device that encases the cells. They’re commonly made using the same technology as computer chips.
Not only do organs-on-chips mimic blood flow in the body, these platforms have microchambers that allow researchers to integrate multiple types of cells to mimic the diverse range of cell types normally present in an organ. The fluid flow connects these multiple cell types, allowing researchers to study how they interact with each other.
This technology can overcome the limitations of both static cell cultures and animal studies in several ways. First, the presence of fluid flowing in the model allows it to mimic both what a cell experiences in the body, such as how it receives nutrients and removes wastes, and how a drug will move in the blood and interact with multiple types of cells. The ability to control fluid flow also enables researchers to fine-tune the optimal dosing for a particular drug.
The lung-on-a-chip model, for instance, is able to integrate both the mechanical and physical qualities of a living human lung. It’s able to mimic the dilation and contraction, or inhalation and exhalation, of the lung and simulate the interface between the lung and air. The ability to replicate these qualities allows researchers to better study lung impairment across different factors.
Bringing Organs-On-Chips to Scale
While organ-on-a-chip pushes the boundaries of early-stage pharmaceutical research, the technology has not been widely integrated into drug development pipelines. I believe that a core obstacle for wide adoption of such chips is its high complexity and low practicality.
Current organ-on-a-chip models are difficult for the average scientist to use. Also, because most models are single-use and allow only one input, which limits what researchers can study at a given time, they are both expensive and time- and labor-intensive to implement. The high investments required to use these models might dampen enthusiasm to adopt them. After all, researchers often use the least complex models available for preclinical studies to reduce time and cost.
This chip mimics the blood-brain barrier. The blue dye marks where brain cells would go, and the red dye marks the route of blood flow. Vanderbilt University/Flickr
Lowering the technical bar to make and use organs-on-chips is critical to allowing the entire research community to take full advantage of their benefits. But this does not necessarily require simplifying the models. My lab, for example, has designed various “plug-and-play” tissue chips that are standardized and modular, allowing researchers to readily assemble premade parts to run their experiments.
The advent of 3D printing has also significantly facilitated the development of organ-on-a-chip, allowing researchers to directly manufacture entire tissue and organ models on chips. 3D printing is ideal for fast prototyping and design-sharing between users and also makes it easy for mass production of standardized materials.
I believe that organs-on-chips hold the potential to enable breakthroughs in drug discovery and allow researchers to better understand how organs function in health and disease. Increasing this technology’s accessibility could help take the model out of development in the lab and let it make its mark on the biomedical industry.
If you predicted that oil prices would go up last year, you were correct. If you predicted they’d go down, you were also correct. I dare say that even with insight as to what was to come, many analysts would have had the timing completely reversed from what actually happened. Why? What caused the volatility? And most importantly, what can we learn from this to help us in 2023 and beyond? After all, in 2022, oil company Exxon increased in market value more than any other company in the S&P 500. It became the eighth largest with a 74.3% increase in share price, up from the 27th largest a year ago. In contrast, WTI Crude closed near its low for the year, the dynamics involved are certainly worth investor exploration.
Background
Twelve months ago, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was considered high at $75.99/bbl. WTI closed the year less than 6% higher at $80.47/bbl. But this is not indicative of the wild surprises in between. There are two events that had a major impact during those twelve months.
Russia’s late February invasion of its neighbor helped crude prices to shoot up above $120/bbl. Oil has only visited that level once before (2008). Very few could have expected this event, so the expectations leading up to the early months of 2022 were, at worst moderate price declines to moderate increases. Those expecting some price increases pointed to the ongoing supply shortfall related to the pandemic response. This is the period that surprised traders with oil on the way up. Then as it became evident the war would be prolonged and Europe and other regions would take steps to move away from Russia’s output, expectations were for further price increases. What was not anticipated was a massive release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves. Along with releases from reserves in other parts of the world, oil prices sank. But, fear of the European winter, lack of support from OPEC+, and anticipation of price caps on Russian oil creating a loss of supply had many talking about upward pressure by year-end. It has not materialized.
The Crude World Order (OPIC?)
What’s changed the expected results related to oil prices and even producer prices? First off, there was a level of unity never-before-experienced and organization among petroleum-importing countries among consuming nations. The pushback and, to some degree taking charge, by nations that are net consumers began in late Spring 2022 when 31 members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) decided to all release oil from reserves to quench demand and impact prices.
The Paris-based IEA promotes what it believes are beneficial energy situations for consumers. It had taken the lead on emergency measures before, but never with this much unity or on this scale. The amount of reserves sold into the oil market amounts to less than 1%, but it is estimated to have shaved $20 or more off per barrel oil prices in the spring and summer. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, hit its peak settlement value of $127.98 per barrel in March but had fallen below $100 by July. Recently it has been trading near $80.
Certainly, the drawdown on reserves which borrowed from the future will need to be replenished. Pulling from reserves is unsustainable and therefore limits bargaining power. Nations have pledged to return their reserves to a level deemed in line with national security (the U.S. has a 50-day reserve supply), but the timing is uncertain.
What is positive for consumers is the IEA has learned to stand firm and work together.
Why are Oil Company Stocks Outperformers?
Crude is roughly the same price now as it was at the beginning of last year. Yet, factors including conservation efforts and China Covid policies have caused limited demand growth. And despite favorable economics currently, energy companies have been slow to drill new wells. U.S. rig count, as reported by Baker Hughes, crept up to 779 rigs by the end of the year. This compares to a peak level of 1,600 in 2014.
So why, as mentioned earlier, are oil companies performing as tech companies did in 2021?
On the surface, one might think energy company stock prices would be weakening, but this isn’t the case there are other factors at play. Michael Heim, Senior Energy Analyst, at Noble Capital Markets, explains in his newly released Q4 2022 Energy Industry Report, “Operating cash flow has soared over the last two years, but capital expenditures have barely increased. The result has been a large increase in dividend payments, share repurchases, and debt reduction.” Heim’s report further explains that while capital expenditures lagged well behind, it is inaccurate to conclude that oil production has not increased. The Noble Capital Markets analyst explains, “…current production levels are above that during peak drilling periods in 2014. The implication is that drilling has become more productive. While drilling advances such as the use of horizontal drill and fracking in shale deposits may be old hat, it is worth noting that drillers have been refining drilling techniques for individual drilling locations.” Drillers are improving techniques, improving efficiencies and maximizing production per dollar spent. Heim also attributes some of the efficiencies to well recompletions, which he explains are less expensive to put in service.
The S&P index that tracks the Energy sector gained 53.8% last year. If you had had a crystal ball that told you about the events that would transpire, such as the European war, and oil returning to its starting place, it’s a rare investor that would expect the drillers/producers to increase over 50%. While all situations have their own circumstances, understanding why price action happened can provide greater preparedness to face the markets each year.
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Image: Michael Burry on the Set of “The Big Short” (Twitter, @michaeljburry)
Washington’s Economic Playbook According to Michael Burry
One benefit to Elon Musk purchasing Twitter and ridding the platform of many of the auto posts on well-followed accounts is that the well-followed Michael Burry is no longer deleting his tweets the same day as posted. Burry, who began the new year tweeting with a very clear economic roadmap, said less than a month ago that he trusts Elon. As far as the hedge fund manager’s 2023 economic roadmap, his expectations show that he is critical of all those in Washington that have a hand on the economic steering wheel and continue to resist oversteering.
Source: Twitter (@michaeljburry)
While it can be frustrating for someone like Burry or any investor to forecast missteps by those that most impact the economy, especially if the official entities continue to repeat their behaviors, there is some consolation in the idea that patient investors can use these repeated actions to enhance their account’s performance.
Burry’s New Year’s Message
In 50 words, Dr. Burry, the investor made famous by Christian Bale’s portrayal of him in the 2015 movie The Big Short, said that he expects that inflation for this part of the interest rate, or market cycle, has already passed its high. In fact, he expects that it will be unmistakable, as the year progresses, that the US has fallen into a recession. A recession that can’t be denied or redefined because it will be that deep.
With this economic weakness, the hedge fund manager expects that we will not only see lower CPI readings but by the second half of this year, inflation may even turn negative – deflationary readings.
Burry then goes on to say that this will cause stimulus from both the fed and fiscal policy. This stimulus will be overdone if keeping inflation at bay is the goal. He expects we will have an inflationary period that may outdo the one we are coming off., Burry tweeted. “Fed will cut and government will stimulate. And we will have another inflation spike.”
Source: Twitter (@michaeljburry)
Take Away
If you ask ten experts what will happen over the next 12 months, you will get ten or more conflicting projections. The Scion Asset Management CIO is often correct on what will eventually occur but just as often as he is right, he is far off on the timing. The scenarios that seem obvious to him have in the past played out a lot slower in the economy and marketplace.
His first tweet in 2023 said that he expects more of the same from the folks in Washington, including the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury. The fed is now pushing hard on the economic brake pedal, which will could cause activity to reach recessionary levels. He expects that this will be followed by a panic move to the gas pedal that will create shortages, increased demand, and consumer price increases.
If he is correct, this means different things to investors with different time horizons. But it appears that Burry expects the tightening cycle to end soon.
Offsetting portfolio capital gains by taking losses is permitted by the IRS. Within the tax guidelines, this generally occurs during the last month of the year as individuals and financial advisors strive to minimize money owed to the IRS. The stocks sold, naturally, are underperformers. This activity has a tendency to set the stage for a late December rally or a January rebound. This is especially true of the sectors or asset classes that were most sold. This is because portfolio managers often wish to keep a similar allocation, which translates to them then waiting 30 days or more before buying something that may be viewed as substantially similar.
With the major indexes like the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Small Cap S&P 600 all down double digits this year, there are stocks that are doing far worse than index averages – just as there are stocks doing far better. Of course, if you own an ETF, you have to treat it like it is one stock and cannot offset a good underlying individual company sold with an underperforming company. In this way, holders of individual company shares can benefit more because they will have more options. And may even find it easier to qualify for the additional $3,000 tax benefit the IRS allows.
What happens after the 30-day period? Some investors try to get in, or back in, early with the notion that the most beaten-down stocks from 30 days earlier, could quickly bounce back hard for a time. This would all begin to occur following what could be perceived as the tax loss selling dip, (aged 30 days). The so-called Santa Rally is somewhat attributed to this, but that rally has not occurred during December 2022. The chart above shows a very weak December. So the buying may be postponed until early next year.
Without substantial buying this December, the first month or two of 2023 may bring buying as investors replace holdings for allocation purposes, plus any additional purchases used to bring the beaten-down sectors’ portfolio weightings up to whatever fits the investors’ strategy.
DoubleLine founder Jeffrey Gundlach told CNBC on Wednesday that risk assets will likely rally in January once retail investors finish tax-loss selling. Strategists at Evercore wrote on Nov. 30 that they were “buyers of stocks whose 2022 tax loss selling pressure will soon abate.”
Take Away
The main drivers of market moves next year are likely economic concerns such as inflation, recession, and monetary policy. But the potential for the most beaten down sectors this year, those that underperformed in December, may represent opportunity. The opportunity may not be long-lived, but for those involved in the markets, it is worth understanding why it may be occurring.
As the Bear Market Melts Down, Where Will the Grass Be Greenest?
Bear Markets and snowmen have one thing in common; they don’t last forever.
The entry point into an investment can have a huge impact on performance. Exits tend to be more critical when the stock has shown that it is not performing as planned. While this kind of exit may result in a loss, it allows the investor to preserve capital, liquid assets they can deploy if another good entry presents itself. The major stock market indices for 2022 are down 20% and more. Has this sell-off provided for performance-producing entry points in some stocks? Let’s look where we are as the countdown to 2023 has already begun.
About this Bear Market
Bear markets end – they always have. Pinpointing an exact bottom is not possible, so trying to be the first in for that great entry point may include a few false starts and some unhoped-for exits. The current slide in the stock market started around January 1, 2022. This was because some doubted whether inflation was transient at the time; by March, most understood the Fed was concerned that price increases were pervasive.
Fed Chair Powell, along with many Fed Presidents, began speaking hawkishly to not unduly surprise and unsettle markets as the central bank unwound the liquidity used in response to the novel coronavirus. What followed was unprecedented. Overnight lending rates went from an effective 0.08% to an effective 4.33% during the course of the year. This is more than 52 times the base lending rate at the start of the year. With these increases, no wonder the bear market continued.
Where Are We Now?
Expectations of overnight rate hikes in 2023 are for another 0.50%-0.75% increase leaving the target at, or just north of, 5%. This increase in the cost of money is small (.17 times) compared to the massive (52 times) rocking the markets in 2022.
So rate hikes are expected to be much lower as a percentage of current rates next year. And after the last FOMC meeting, markets have seemingly repriced lower with this expectation. If all goes as it is thought it will, the market is already priced for the worst. This is a bullish sign.
Put another way; most believe that with Fed funds beginning 2022 around zero, we’re likely much closer to the end of the Fed Funds tightening than to the beginning.
Inflation (CPI) for December won’t be reported until January 12, 2023. The latest CPI numbers show YoY up 7.1% in November, a slowing from 7.7% in October, which tapered from 8.2% the month before. The November reading of 7.1% taken by itself is a long way away from the Fed’s 2% target. But the trend in the CPI and PCE deflator also suggest the Fed is likely to monitor previous hikes to see if they will have the desired impact.
The Fed Has Been Transparent
The Fed lowered rates in line with what they promised during the pandemic. Then after some transient talk, they raised rates as they expressed they would in 2022. Following the December FOMC meeting, they suggested they were not at the end, but the voting members’ expectations for where they will settle is an average of 5.40%. The forward-looking stock market, if they believe the Fed will again do as promised, should recognize this is a much lower increase. It is perhaps near the time to begin to build on positions. This could be the entry point many investors have been waiting for.
Small Cap Phenomenon
The chart below shows how much small cap stocks outperformed during the 12- months following the pandemic plunge. While small cap outperformance has been experienced during the past century of stocks’ post-sell-off periods, one only has to look back to the pandemic plunge to remember that it was small-caps (depicted below as IWM) that had been beaten down the most and by far outran the other major indices for the next year from the low of 2021.
Could this small cap phenomenon occur again after markets reach the bottom? Data demonstrates that small cap stocks tend to lead following a period of economic dislocation. One reason is US small caps have more of their business within the states and as a bonus, do well with a rising dollar. Current conditions suggest exploring smaller stocks. They have outperformed large caps following nearly every bear market of the last century. And today, the dollar has risen above its six-month high and is trending higher. While past movement comparisons don’t always include all the crosscurrents of the future, a strong argument could be made that a turnaround is near and small caps may again be the leaders by a wide margin.
Some Disclosure
Channelchek, the investment information platform you’re now reding has small cap stocks as its primary focus. The deep platform provides data on over 6000 stocks, with quality research updated regularly on many of them. Channelchek also provides videos and articles that may inspire informed stock selection. Stock selection, rather than just plowing investment dollars into an indexed ETF, may be preferable as indexed ETFs include sectors and stocks that may not be worthy of your portfolio.
Diversification across asset classes, sectors, and market capitalizations is considered prudent for long-term portfolios; individual allocations can be built on depending on where we are in the business and interest rate cycle. This includes an allocation to small cap equities, which perhaps should be expanded if the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle. It could always be reduced later if the economy is deep into a growth cycle.
Take Away
Although we do not have a crystal ball to know exactly when the best entry point in any company stock is, if a century’s worth of data is any guide, the period following the end of a market downturn has been a good time to increase exposure to the small cap sector.
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According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose 9.1% from June 2021 to June 2022, the highest rate since 1981. That figure is an average of price increases for bananas, electricity, haircuts, and more than 200 other categories of goods and services. But households in different age groups spend money differently, so inflation rates vary by age, too. The diagrams below show average spending for households at different ages, in the categories that make up the inflation index.
Young households spend more of their budgets on gasoline, where prices rose 60% in the last year. Gasoline has been the largest single-category driver of inflation since March 2021, accounting for nearly 25% of inflation by itself. Gas has had an outsized impact considering that the category is 4.8% of Consumer Price Index spending. (Gasoline prices began falling in mid-June.)
Taking an average of all categories, as the inflation index does, shows that inflation is currently highest for younger households. It is about 2 percentage points higher for households headed by 21-year-olds as it is for octogenarians who live at home. That has not been true for most of the last 40 years. Inflation rates calculated in this way were higher for older households as recently as early 2021, when medical care costs were rising faster than gasoline prices.
These estimates are imperfect. The Bureau of Labor Statistics notes in its estimate of inflation for elderly households that different age groups may buy different items within each category or buy them from different types of stores. They may also live in locations with costs of living so dissimilar that national changes in prices are not relevant. Over the past 12 months, inflation was 6.7% in the New York City metropolitan area and 12.3 in the Phoenix metropolitan area, due in part to different housing markets.
The above was adapted from USAFacts and is the intellectual property of USAFacts protected by copyrights and similar rights. USAFacts grants a license to use this Original Content under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 (or higher) International Public License (the “CC BY-SA 4.0 License”).
Nuclear Fusion’s Potential to Be a Highly Disruptive Breakthrough with Investment Opportunities
Scientists at the Energy Department’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in California announced the first-ever demonstration of fusion “ignition.” This means that more energy was generated from fusion than was needed to operate the high-powered lasers that triggered the reaction. More than 2 megajoules (MJ) of laser light were directed onto a tiny gold-plated capsule, resulting in the production of a little over 3 MJ of energy, the equivalent of three sticks of dynamite.
This important milestone is the culmination of decades’ worth of research and lots of trial and error, and it makes good on the hope that humanity will one day enjoy 100% clean and plentiful energy.
This article was republished with permission from Frank Talk, a CEO Blog by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors (GROW). Find more of Frank’s articles here – Originally published December 19, 2022.
Unlike conventional nuclear fission, which produces highly radioactive waste and carries the risk of nuclear proliferation, nuclear fusion has no emissions or risk of cataclysmic disaster. That should please activists who support renewable, non-carbon-emitting energy sources such as wind and solar and yet oppose nuclear power.
75th Anniversary of Another Great American Invention, The Transistor
I think it’s only fitting that this breakthrough occurred not just in the U.S., the most innovative country on earth, but also on the 75th anniversary of the invention of the transistor.
Like fusion energy, the transistor’s importance can’t be overstated. Invented in December 1947 in New Jersey’s storied Bell Labs—also the birthplace of the photovoltaic cell, fiber optic cable, communications satellite, UNIX operating system and C programming language—the transistor made the 20th century possible. Everything we use and enjoy today, from our iPhones to our Teslas, wouldn’t exist without the seminal American invention.
In 2021, the electric vehicle maker unveiled its proprietary application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) for artificial intelligence (AI) training. The ASIC chip, believe it or not, boasts an unbelievable 50 billion transistors.
Private Investment in Fusion Technology Has Been Increasing
Getting your electricity from a commercial fusion reactor is still years if not decades away, but that hasn’t stopped money from flowing into the sector. This year, private investment is estimated to top $1 billion, following the record $2.6 billion that went into fusion research in 2021, according to BloombergNEF.
Private Sector Investment in Nuclear Fusion May Top $1 Billion in 2022
At the moment, there aren’t any publicly traded fusion companies. However, Bloomberg has a Global Nuclear Theme Peers index that tracks listed companies with exposure to the industry, estimated by Bloomberg to one day achieve a jaw-dropping $40 trillion valuation. Some of the more recognizable names include Rolls-Royce, Toshiba, Hitachi and General Electric.
For the five-year period, the index of 64 “nuclear” stocks has advanced approximately 100%, compared to the MSCI World Index, up 38% over the same period.
The number of private firms involved in R&D continues to grow, raising the possibility that some will tap public markets in the coming years.
Among the largest is Commonwealth Fusion Systems, or CFS, which spun out of MIT’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center in 2018. The company raised $1.8 billion in December 2021, on top of the $250 million it had raised previously. Its investors include Bill Gates and Google, along with oil companies, venture capital firms and sovereign wealth funds. CFS claims to have the fastest, lowest cost solution to commercial fusion energy and is in the process of building a prototype that is set to demonstrate net energy gain by 2025.
Another major player is TAE Technologies. Located in California, the company has raised a total of $1.2 billion as of December 2022, from investors such as the late Paul Allen, Goldman Sachs, Google and the family office of Charles Schwab. TAE says it is developing a fusion reactor, scheduled to be unveiled in the early 2030s, that will generate electricity from a proton-boron reaction at an incredible temperature of 1 billion degrees.
Other contenders in the field include Washington State-based Helion Energy, Canada’s General Fusion and the United Kingdom’s Tokamak Energy. In February 2022, Tokamak broke a longstanding record by generating 59 MJ of energy, the highest sustained energy pulse ever.
As an investor, I would keep an eye on this space!
Solar Accounted For 45% Of All New Energy Capacity Growth In The U.S.
In the meantime, energy investors with an eye on the future still have renewable energy stocks to consider.
2022 has been a challenging year for the industry, with much of it facing supply constraints. According to Wood Mackenzie, total new solar installations in the U.S. were 18.6 gigawatts (GW), a 23% decrease from 2021.
Even so, solar accounted for 45% of all new electricity-generation capacity added this year through the end of the third quarter. That’s greater than any other energy source. Wind was in second place, representing a quarter of all new energy power, followed by natural gas at 21% and coal at 10%, its best year since 2013.
WoodMac expresses optimism in the next two years. Solar projects that were delayed this year due to supply issues may finally come online in 2023, and by 2024, the real effects of President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) should be felt. The U.K.-based research firm forecasts 21% average annual growth from 2023 through 2027, so now may be an opportune time to start participating.
One of our favorite plays right now is Canadian Solar, up more than 11% for the year. On Thursday of this week, the Ontario-based company announced that it would begin mass-producing high efficiency solar modules in the first quarter of 2023. Canadian Solar shares were up more than 1% last week, despite experiencing two down days on this week’s news of continued rate hikes into 2023.
US Global Investors Disclaimer
All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.
The BI Global Nuclear Theme Peers is an index not for use as a financial benchmark that tracks 64 companies exposed to nuclear energy research and production. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index which includes developed world markets and does not include emerging markets.
Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (09/30/22): Tesla Inc., Canadian Solar Inc.
How to Play and Win the Gift-Stealing Game Bad Santa, According to a Mathematician
Christmas comes but once a year – as do Christmas party games. With such little practice it’s hard to get good at any of them.
Let me help. I’m going to share with you some expert tips, tested through mathematical modelling, on how to win one of the most popular games: Bad Santa – also known as Dirty Santa, White Elephant, Grab Bag, Yankee Swap, Thieving Secret Santa, or simply “that present-stealing game”.
This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of Joel Gilmore, Associate Professor, Griffith University.
This isn’t advice on being a bad sport. It’s about being a good Bad Santa – which is the name of the game. You might even come away with a good gift and bragging rights.
How Bad Santa Works
Bad Santa is a variation of the classic Kris Kringle (or Secret Santa) game, in which each guest receives an anonymous gift bought by another guest. Part of the fun (for others) is the unwrapping of silly and useless gifts, which is done one by one.
Bad Santa spices things up. All the gifts are pooled. Guests take turns to choose one to unwrap. Or they can choose to “steal” a gift already opened by someone else. The person losing their gift then gets the same choice: open a wrapped present or steal someone else’s.
It’s a good alternative to buying a gift for everyone, and a great way to ruin friendships.
The order of players is usually determined by drawing numbers from a hat. This is important, because you’ve probably already noted the disadvantage of going first and the benefit of going last. The right rules can mitigate this. There are at least a dozen different versions of this game published online, and some are much less fair than others.
How I Tested Bad Santa
The best way to test Bad Santa rule variations and playing strategies would be to observe games in real life – say, by attending 1,000 Christmas parties (funding bodies please call me).
I did the next best thing, deploying the same type of computer modelling (known as agent-based modelling) used to understand everything from bidding in electricity markets to how the human immune system works.
In my model there are 16 virtual guests and 16 gifts. Each has different present preferences, rating opened gifts on a scale of 1 to 10. They will steal a gift they rate better than a 5. To make it interesting, three gifts are rated highly by everyone and there are three no one really wants – probably a novelty mug or something.
Image Credit Jernej Furman (Flickr)
After simulating 50,000 games with different rules, I’ve found a set of rules that seems the most fair, no matter what number you draw from the hat.
Choosing the Fairest Rules
The following graph shows the results for four different game variations.
The higher the line, the greater the overall satisfaction. The flatter the lines, the fairer the result. (If gifts were chosen randomly with no stealing, every player’s average satisfaction score would be 5).
The most unfair result comes from the “dark blue rules”, which stipulate that any gift can only be stolen once in any round. This mean if you’re the last person, you’ve got the biggest choice and get to keep what you steal. If you go first, you’re bound to lose out.
Fairest and Best Bad Santa Rules
The most fair outcomes come from the “red rules”:
A gift can be stolen multiple times each turn. This keeps presents moving between guests, which adds to the fun.
Once a person holds the same gift three times it becomes “locked”, and can no longer be stolen. This evens the game out a lot. Later players still see more gifts, but earlier players have more chance to lock the gift they want. It also ensures games don’t go on for hours.
After the last player’s turn, there is one more round of stealing, starting with the very first player. This also gives them a chance to steal at least once – and a slight advantage. But overall, these rules provide the most even outcomes.
Like most games, the rules are’t perfect. But the maths shows they are better than the alternatives. If you want to test other scenarios using my model, you can download my source code here.
On your turn you can either steal an open gift or open a new one If you’re stolen from, you can steal from someone else or open a gift. If you hold a gift three times, it is locked. First person gets a final steal.
Three Tips on Game Strategy
The right rules help level the playing field. They don’t eliminate the need for strategic thinking to maximise your chance to get a gift you want.
As in real life, seemingly fair rules can be manipulated.
One thing you could do is team up with other players to manipulate the “three holds and locked” rule. To do this, you’ll need at least two co-conspirators.
Say your friends Donner and Blitzen have their preferred gifts, and now it’s your turn. You steal Blitzen’s gift. Blitzen in turn steals Donner’s, who steals yours, and so on. Donner and Blitzen end up holding their chosen gifts a second time, then a third. You helped them out, and then can choose another gift.
Image Credit:Steve Jurvetson (Flickr)
In competitive markets this type of co-operation is usually know as collusion – and it’s illegal. In sport, it would simply be called cheating. So I’m not saying you should do this; I am merely explaining how the strategy works. If you do this and end up on the naughty list, don’t blame me.
I haven’t yet tested rules variations in my model to see how this collusion can best be eliminated or minimised. Maybe by next Christmas. (Or maybe not – for me, cheating through maths is half the fun of the game.)
So let me leave you with two perfectly legitimate strategies.
First, and most obviously, you must steal gifts!
My modelling quantifies how necessary this is. I simulated a game in which four guests will never steal a gift. Those guests are 75% less satisfied with their final gifts than the players who do steal. They’re also much less fun at parties.
What Consumers are Expecting Now and Through Mid-2023
The markets just got a solid sign that it may be a prosperous new year. The Consumer Confidence Index is one of the better leading indicators of future economic activity and the number came out well above expectations. This report shows consumer attitudes, buying intentions, vacation plans, and expectations for inflation, stock values, and interest rates are now, overall, very positive. These attitudes should play out in spending, and that spending should eventually show up in company earnings.
How Good Was the Report?
After back-to-back monthly declines in the index, which stood at 101.4 in November (1985=100), the December post came out at 108.3. This is an eight-month high, and stands in contrast to economists expected decline to 101.2. The break down shows fewer concerns over inflation and more optimism about the economy, job conditions, and even inflation.
Refining the Reports Components
Overall confidence was shown in the two separate underlying measures, including the Present Situation Index, which is derived from a survey of consumers’ thoughts of current business and labor market conditions. This increased to 147.2 from 138.3 last month. The Expectations Index is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, this subset of data improved to 82.4 from 76.7. As a note, 82.4 is a vast improvement, but economists generally associate 80 with a possible recession.
Present Situation – Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions improved in December.
19.0% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” up from 17.8%.
20.1% said business conditions were “bad,” down from 23.6%.
47.8% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” up from 45.2%.
12.0% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 13.7%.
Expectations Index (Six Months forward) – Consumers’ Assessment of future business conditions improved in December.
20.4% of consumers expect business conditions to improve, up from 19.8%.
20.3% expect business conditions to worsen, down from 21.0%.
19.5% of consumers expect more jobs to be available, up from 18.5%.
18.3% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 21.2%.
16.7% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, down slightly from 17.1%.
13.3% expect their incomes will decrease, down from 15.8%.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey® had a data cutoff date of December 15. This makes the forward-looking attitudes fresh, and useable.
The one question that many investors are asking themselves after the worst equity markets in 15 years is if it is time to deploy some capital into the beaten-down market. The confidence numbers suggest that individuals are more likely to open up their wallets now than they have been in two quarters. This could bolster earnings later next year.
If the worst is behind us, this could be reflected at some point in the next six months in companies that are supported by consumer spending (based on these numbers) and not business spending.
Owners of electric vehicles (EVs) are accustomed to plugging into charging stations at home and at work and filling up their batteries with electricity from the power grid. But someday soon, when these drivers plug in, their cars will also have the capacity to reverse the flow and send electrons back to the grid. As the number of EVs climbs, the fleet’s batteries could serve as a cost-effective, large-scale energy source, with potentially dramatic impacts on the energy transition, according to a new paper published by an MIT team in the journal Energy Advances.
“At scale, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) can boost renewable energy growth, displacing the need for stationary energy storage and decreasing reliance on firm [always-on] generators, such as natural gas, that are traditionally used to balance wind and solar intermittency,” says Jim Owens, lead author and a doctoral student in the MIT Department of Chemical Engineering. Additional authors include Emre Gençer, a principal research scientist at the MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI), and Ian Miller, a research specialist for MITEI at the time of the study.
The group’s work is the first comprehensive, systems-based analysis of future power systems, drawing on a novel mix of computational models integrating such factors as carbon emission goals, variable renewable energy (VRE) generation, and costs of building energy storage, production, and transmission infrastructure.
“We explored not just how EVs could provide service back to the grid — thinking of these vehicles almost like energy storage on wheels — but also the value of V2G applications to the entire energy system and if EVs could reduce the cost of decarbonizing the power system,” says Gençer. “The results were surprising; I personally didn’t believe we’d have so much potential here.”
Displacing New Infrastructure
As the United States and other nations pursue stringent goals to limit carbon emissions, electrification of transportation has taken off, with the rate of EV adoption rapidly accelerating. (Some projections show EVs supplanting internal combustion vehicles over the next 30 years.) With the rise of emission-free driving, though, there will be increased demand for energy. “The challenge is ensuring both that there’s enough electricity to charge the vehicles and that this electricity is coming from renewable sources,” says Gençer.
But solar and wind energy is intermittent. Without adequate backup for these sources, such as stationary energy storage facilities using lithium-ion batteries, for instance, or large-scale, natural gas- or hydrogen-fueled power plants, achieving clean energy goals will prove elusive. More vexing, costs for building the necessary new energy infrastructure runs to the hundreds of billions.
This is precisely where V2G can play a critical, and welcome, role, the researchers reported. In their case study of a theoretical New England power system meeting strict carbon constraints, for instance, the team found that participation from just 13.9 percent of the region’s 8 million light-duty (passenger) EVs displaced 14.7 gigawatts of stationary energy storage. This added up to $700 million in savings — the anticipated costs of building new storage capacity.
Their paper also described the role EV batteries could play at times of peak demand, such as hot summer days. “V2G technology has the ability to inject electricity back into the system to cover these episodes, so we don’t need to install or invest in additional natural gas turbines,” says Owens. “The way that EVs and V2G can influence the future of our power systems is one of the most exciting and novel aspects of our study.”
Modeling Power
To investigate the impacts of V2G on their hypothetical New England power system, the researchers integrated their EV travel and V2G service models with two of MITEI’s existing modeling tools: the Sustainable Energy System Analysis Modeling Environment (SESAME) to project vehicle fleet and electricity demand growth, and GenX, which models the investment and operation costs of electricity generation, storage, and transmission systems. They incorporated such inputs as different EV participation rates, costs of generation for conventional and renewable power suppliers, charging infrastructure upgrades, travel demand for vehicles, changes in electricity demand, and EV battery costs.
Their analysis found benefits from V2G applications in power systems (in terms of displacing energy storage and firm generation) at all levels of carbon emission restrictions, including one with no emissions caps at all. However, their models suggest that V2G delivers the greatest value to the power system when carbon constraints are most aggressive — at 10 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour load. Total system savings from V2G ranged from $183 million to $1,326 million, reflecting EV participation rates between 5 percent and 80 percent.
“Our study has begun to uncover the inherent value V2G has for a future power system, demonstrating that there is a lot of money we can save that would otherwise be spent on storage and firm generation,” says Owens.
Harnessing V2G
For scientists seeking ways to decarbonize the economy, the vision of millions of EVs parked in garages or in office spaces and plugged into the grid for 90 percent of their operating lives proves an irresistible provocation. “There is all this storage sitting right there, a huge available capacity that will only grow, and it is wasted unless we take full advantage of it,” says Gençer.
This is not a distant prospect. Startup companies are currently testing software that would allow two-way communication between EVs and grid operators or other entities. With the right algorithms, EVs would charge from and dispatch energy to the grid according to profiles tailored to each car owner’s needs, never depleting the battery and endangering a commute.
“We don’t assume all vehicles will be available to send energy back to the grid at the same time, at 6 p.m. for instance, when most commuters return home in the early evening,” says Gençer. He believes that the vastly varied schedules of EV drivers will make enough battery power available to cover spikes in electricity use over an average 24-hour period. And there are other potential sources of battery power down the road, such as electric school buses that are employed only for short stints during the day and then sit idle.
The MIT team acknowledges the challenges of V2G consumer buy-in. While EV owners relish a clean, green drive, they may not be as enthusiastic handing over access to their car’s battery to a utility or an aggregator working with power system operators. Policies and incentives would help.
“Since you’re providing a service to the grid, much as solar panel users do, you could be paid for your participation, and paid at a premium when electricity prices are very high,” says Gençer.
“People may not be willing to participate ’round the clock, but if we have blackout scenarios like in Texas last year, or hot-day congestion on transmission lines, maybe we can turn on these vehicles for 24 to 48 hours, sending energy back to the system,” adds Owens. “If there’s a power outage and people wave a bunch of money at you, you might be willing to talk.”
“Basically, I think this comes back to all of us being in this together, right?” says Gençer. “As you contribute to society by giving this service to the grid, you will get the full benefit of reducing system costs, and also help to decarbonize the system faster and to a greater extent.”
Actionable Insights
Owens, who is building his dissertation on V2G research, is now investigating the potential impact of heavy-duty electric vehicles in decarbonizing the power system. “The last-mile delivery trucks of companies like Amazon and FedEx are likely to be the earliest adopters of EVs,” Owen says. “They are appealing because they have regularly scheduled routes during the day and go back to the depot at night, which makes them very useful for providing electricity and balancing services in the power system.”
Owens is committed to “providing insights that are actionable by system planners, operators, and to a certain extent, investors,” he says. His work might come into play in determining what kind of charging infrastructure should be built, and where.
“Our analysis is really timely because the EV market has not yet been developed,” says Gençer. “This means we can share our insights with vehicle manufacturers and system operators — potentially influencing them to invest in V2G technologies, avoiding the costs of building utility-scale storage, and enabling the transition to a cleaner future. It’s a huge win, within our grasp.”
The research for this study was funded by MITEI’s Future Energy Systems Center.
Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Equity Analysts* (*But Were Afraid to Ask)
Determining the potential of a company stock involves more time and perhaps more understanding than the average self-directed investor can provide. Fortunately, there are investment analysts that specialize in equities and spend their days staying current on the industry, individual companies, and the risks associated with the overall market. The investment world is becoming more transparent as the work of these well-educated professionals has become more accessible to DIY investors.
Just what is it that equity analysts do, and how do individual and professional investors benefit from their work?
The Value of Equity Analysts
Equity analysts have a deep understanding of company financials. This begins with formal education, as most true analysts have an accounting background that may include an MBA and, in many cases, the highly esteemed Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation.
In addition to being able to read and pull data for analysis from financials, they understand the industries they cover. This is important because external trends up or down in input prices or competition will impact the whole sector, including the companies they cover. A macro view of what is impacting the industry is foundational to understanding a company within the industry.
For individual investment opportunities, the analysts’ focus is on the equity portion of the capital structure, but understanding debt levels and factors that could impact debt financing is critical to building an overall financial picture. Comparing the financial structure to company goals and initiatives provides information on how realistic they may or may not be based on internal factors.
Using data from the past and present, an analyst will build a model tailored to the specific company. These models are usually detailed spreadsheets with many interconnections between the various categories. The models generally include industry growth trends, the company’s own numbers (past, current, and projected scenarios), and then what-if scenarios. Financial models are a tool used to estimate the valuation of the company, how it changes under various scenarios, and then compare the business to its peers.
Shocking a forecast for different risks is important to assess the overall risk to the forecast.
The main risks impact different industries differently. For example, a healthcare company may be more or less immune to inflation, a mining operation could benefit from it, and a hospitality-based business could be hurt by it. Analysts assess the potential impacts of known risks and weigh them into their evaluation.
Primary Risks
The primary risks impacting any industry could be thought of as Business Risks, the challenges of a particular company’s circumstances. This could include the ability to hire talent, legal changes that could be impactful, natural resource availability, etc.
Market Risk or systemic risk is the idea that a sinking stock market will weigh on all stocks. While an analyst may choose top performers if the price target assigned was from an evaluation under average market growth of X%, an actual experience of negative Y% is a risk to the forecast.
Sovereign Risk has become a much bigger concern as trading partners like Russia, and China has shown us that politics and business policies can greatly impact U.S. trading partners. This risk tends to be greater among large international companies.
Foreign Exchange Risk. An analyst will review the impact of conversion back to the native currency and profit impacts. They may even project whether customers could be lost if the U.S. dollar becomes too costly.
Inflation Risk, what might the impact be on the company under various possible scenarios? A company with a large inventory may actually go through a beneficial period while prices are rising.
Interest Rate Risk is the real threat of inflation because it typically raises the cost of money. If the company is a large borrower and will be rolling maturing debt at new interest rate levels, the analyst will determine how this impacts operating costs and profit going forward.
Liquidity Risk. If a company’s stock is not well followed and trades sporadically, selling shares to raise capital may be severely hindered and, therefore, negatively impact the company’s ability to finance its business plan. What is interesting to note here is that analyst coverage of a company by itself has been shown to improve a stock’s liquidity. This is because more information about companies, even if not positive, helps investors understand the company, its risks, and its value.
Equity analysts benefit investors (retail and institutional) that are looking for information and an evaluation from a professional to weigh against their own evaluation. But they also benefit issuers as their stock may get less attention if there is minimal quality information available.
Direct Access to Management
Analysts essentially have a hotline to the covered company’s CEO and CFO to ask questions and get details of any change within the company or outside change that may impact results. Most investors don’t have this, so relying on analysts takes on even more importance.
Nuances Known to Analysts
The best reason to check the thoughts and forecasts of a seasoned analyst as part of your own due diligence is that every company has so many moving parts. A good analyst will be aware of what a DIY investor won’t know about the company. For example, the veteran analysts that provide research to Channelchek. On an ongoing basis, they have their finger on the pulse of the companies they cover.
There’s an opportunity you will want to take advantage of on Wednesday, December 15. You will meet online the Wall Street Analysts who are behind the research published on Channelchek. During this no-cost meeting, the veteran analysts have been asked to uncover what they are looking at, especially as it relates to companies they are bullish on.
This could be a great kickoff to organizing your portfolio for 2023 as these analysts cover the less talked about and perhaps the most overlooked stocks – stocks with great potential and “nuance” that you may have missed.
How Do Floating Wind Turbines Work? Five Companies Just Won the First US Leases for Building them off California’s Coast
Northern California has some of the strongest offshore winds in the U.S., with immense potential to produce clean energy. But it also has a problem. Its continental shelf drops off quickly, making building traditional wind turbines directly on the seafloor costly if not impossible.
Once water gets more than about 200 feet deep – roughly the height of an 18-story building – these “monopile” structures are pretty much out of the question.
A solution has emerged that’s being tested in several locations around the world: wind turbines that float.
In California, where drought has put pressure on the hydropower supply, the state is moving forward on a plan to develop the nation’s first floating offshore wind farms. On Dec. 7, 2022, the federal government auctioned off five lease areas about 20 miles off the California coast to companies with plans to develop floating wind farms. The bids were lower than recent leases off the Atlantic coast, where wind farms can be anchored to the seafloor, but still significant, together exceeding US$757 million.
So, how do floating wind farms work?
Three Main Ways to Float a Turbine
A floating wind turbine works just like other wind turbines – wind pushes on the blades, causing the rotor to turn, which drives a generator that creates electricity. But instead of having its tower embedded directly into the ground or the seafloor, a floating wind turbine sits on a platform with mooring lines, such as chains or ropes, that connect to anchors in the seabed below.
These mooring lines hold the turbine in place against the wind and keep it connected to the cable that sends its electricity back to shore.
Most of the stability is provided by the floating platform itself. The trick is to design the platform so the turbine doesn’t tip too far in strong winds or storms.
Three of the common types of floating wind turbine platform. Josh Bauer/NREL
There are three main types of platforms:
A spar buoy platform is a long hollow cylinder that extends downward from the turbine tower. It floats vertically in deep water, weighted with ballast in the bottom of the cylinder to lower its center of gravity. It’s then anchored in place, but with slack lines that allow it to move with the water to avoid damage. Spar buoys have been used by the oil and gas industry for years for offshore operations.
Semisubmersible platforms have large floating hulls that spread out from the tower, also anchored to prevent drifting. Designers have been experimenting with multiple turbines on some of these hulls.
Tension leg platforms have smaller platforms with taut lines running straight to the floor below. These are lighter but more vulnerable to earthquakes or tsunamis because they rely more on the mooring lines and anchors for stability.
Each platform must support the weight of the turbine and remain stable while the turbine operates. It can do this in part because the hollow platform, often made of large steel or concrete structures, provides buoyancy to support the turbine. Since some can be fully assembled in port and towed out for installation, they might be far cheaper than fixed-bottom structures, which require specialty vessels for installation on site.
The University of Maine has been experimenting with a small floating wind turbine, about one-eighth scale, on a semisubmersible platform with RWE, one of the winning bidders.
Floating platforms can support wind turbines that can produce 10 megawatts or more of power – that’s similar in size to other offshore wind turbines and several times larger than the capacity of a typical onshore wind turbine you might see in a field.
Why Do We Need Floating Turbines?
Some of the strongest wind resources are away from shore in locations with hundreds of feet of water below, such as off the U.S. West Coast, the Great Lakes, the Mediterranean Sea and the coast of Japan.
Some of the strongest offshore wind power potential in the U.S. is in areas where the water is too deep for fixed turbines, including off the West Coast. NREL
The U.S. lease areas auctioned off in early December cover about 583 square miles in two regions – one off central California’s Morro Bay and the other near the Oregon state line. The water off California gets deep quickly, so any wind farm that is even a few miles from shore will require floating turbines.
Once built, wind farms in those five areas could provide about 4.6 gigawatts of clean electricity, enough to power 1.5 million homes, according to government estimates. The winning companies suggested they could produce even more power.
But getting actual wind turbines on the water will take time. The winners of the lease auction will undergo a Justice Department anti-trust review and then a long planning, permitting and environmental review process that typically takes several years.
The first five federal lease areas for Pacific coast offshore wind energy development. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management
Globally, several full-scale demonstration projects with floating wind turbines are already operating in Europe and Asia. The Hywind Scotland project became the first commercial-scale offshore floating wind farm in 2017, with five 6-megawatt turbines supported by spar buoys designed by the Norwegian energy company Equinor.
Equinor Wind US had one of the winning bids off Central California. Another winning bidder was RWE Offshore Wind Holdings. RWE operates wind farms in Europe and has three floating wind turbine demonstration projects. The other companies involved – Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, Invenergy and Ocean Winds – have Atlantic Coast leases or existing offshore wind farms.
While floating offshore wind farms are becoming a commercial technology, there are still technical challenges that need to be solved. The platform motion may cause higher forces on the blades and tower, and more complicated and unsteady aerodynamics. Also, as water depths get very deep, the cost of the mooring lines, anchors and electrical cabling may become very high, so cheaper but still reliable technologies will be needed.
But we can expect to see more offshore turbines supported by floating structures in the near future.
This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of, Matthew Lackner, Professor of Mechanical Engineering, UMass Amherst.
