Scorpio Bulkers (SALT) – Bolstering Liquidity Due to Near-term Market Weakness

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Scorpio Bulkers (SALT)

Bolstering Liquidity Due to Near-term Market Weakness

Scorpio Bulkers Inc is a shipping company based in Monaco. It owns and operates a fleet of modern mid to large-size dry bulk carriers which provide marine transportation for major bulks, which include iron ore, coal and grain and minor bulks which include bauxite, fertilizers and steel products internationally. In terms of its dead weight tonnage, its vessels are classified as Capesize, Kamsarmax and Ultramax, by the order of highest to lowest capacity, with Kamsarmax accounting for the highest revenue.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    1Q2020 results below expectations and a weak start to the year due to COVID-19 disruptions. Reported EBITDA was negative $100.1 million, but excluding non-cash items of $105.7 million, adjusted EBITDA was $5.6 million in 1Q2020, down sharply from $32.8 million in 1Q2019. Reported net losses of $124.7 million, or $18.12/diluted share, included mark-tomarket investment losses of $88.7 million and write-downs of $17.0 million on planned asset sales.

    Lowering 2020 EBITDA estimates to reflect 2Q2020 forward cover and the weaker than expected outlook. TCE rate weakness has lingered into the quarter due to the negative impact of the COVID-19 virus and several vessels have been repositioned away from weak markets. As a result, the 2Q2020 forward cover is muted with 64% of days booked at $7,149/day for Kamsarmaxes and 69% of days booked at $4,076/day for Ultramaxes. Given the slow start to the year and weaker forward cover, we are revising our 2020 EBITDA estimate to $23.2 million from $80.0 million, based on…



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Bolstering Liquidity Due to Near-term Market Weakness

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Scorpio Bulkers (SALT)

Bolstering Liquidity Due to Near-term Market Weakness

Scorpio Bulkers Inc is a shipping company based in Monaco. It owns and operates a fleet of modern mid to large-size dry bulk carriers which provide marine transportation for major bulks, which include iron ore, coal and grain and minor bulks which include bauxite, fertilizers and steel products internationally. In terms of its dead weight tonnage, its vessels are classified as Capesize, Kamsarmax and Ultramax, by the order of highest to lowest capacity, with Kamsarmax accounting for the highest revenue.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    1Q2020 results below expectations and a weak start to the year due to COVID-19 disruptions. Reported EBITDA was negative $100.1 million, but excluding non-cash items of $105.7 million, adjusted EBITDA was $5.6 million in 1Q2020, down sharply from $32.8 million in 1Q2019. Reported net losses of $124.7 million, or $18.12/diluted share, included mark-tomarket investment losses of $88.7 million and write-downs of $17.0 million on planned asset sales.

    Lowering 2020 EBITDA estimates to reflect 2Q2020 forward cover and the weaker than expected outlook. TCE rate weakness has lingered into the quarter due to the negative impact of the COVID-19 virus and several vessels have been repositioned away from weak markets. As a result, the 2Q2020 forward cover is muted with 64% of days booked at $7,149/day for Kamsarmaxes and 69% of days booked at $4,076/day for Ultramaxes. Given the slow start to the year and weaker forward cover, we are revising our 2020 EBITDA estimate to $23.2 million from $80.0 million, based on…



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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) – Solid Quarter, But Weakness Ahead Before 2H2020 Recovery

Monday, May 11, 2020

Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE)

Solid Quarter, But Weakness Ahead Before 2H2020 Recovery

Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. is a US-based drybulk owner-operator focused on the Supramax/Ultramax mid-size asset class, which ranges from 50,000 and 65,000 deadweight tons in size; these vessels are equipped with onboard cranes allowing for the self-loading and unloading of cargoes, a feature which distinguishes them from the larger classes of drybulk vessels and provides for greatly enhanced flexibility and versatility- both with respect to cargo diversity and port accessibility. The Company transports a broad range of major and minor bulk cargoes around the world, including coal, grain, ore, pet coke, cement, and fertilizer. Eagle operates out of three offices, Stamford (headquarters), Singapore, and Hamburg, and performs all aspects of vessel management in-house including: commercial, operational, technical, and strategic.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Adjusted 1Q2020 EBITDA of $18.8 million was higher than expected due to high 1Q2020 forward cover and hedging gains. Solid forward cover of 85% of 1Q2020 available days booked at $10,300/day helped offset the dry bulk market weakness, and hedging gains of $7.9 million helped push EBITDA above our estimate of $13.9 million. In addition, lower G&A expenses partially offset lower TCE revenue and higher opex.

    Adjusting 2020 estimates to reflect 1Q2020 operating results, lower forward cover and weaker dry bulk market fundamentals. 2Q2020 is off to a slow start and forward cover is lower at 67% of available 2Q2020 days booked at $8,110/day. We are lowering estimated 2020 EBITDA to $60.0 million from $80.0 million, as softer market fundamentals have extended into the quarter and…



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Solid Quarter, But Weakness Ahead Before 2H2020 Recovery

Monday, May 11, 2020

Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE)

Solid Quarter, But Weakness Ahead Before 2H2020 Recovery

Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. is a US-based drybulk owner-operator focused on the Supramax/Ultramax mid-size asset class, which ranges from 50,000 and 65,000 deadweight tons in size; these vessels are equipped with onboard cranes allowing for the self-loading and unloading of cargoes, a feature which distinguishes them from the larger classes of drybulk vessels and provides for greatly enhanced flexibility and versatility- both with respect to cargo diversity and port accessibility. The Company transports a broad range of major and minor bulk cargoes around the world, including coal, grain, ore, pet coke, cement, and fertilizer. Eagle operates out of three offices, Stamford (headquarters), Singapore, and Hamburg, and performs all aspects of vessel management in-house including: commercial, operational, technical, and strategic.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Adjusted 1Q2020 EBITDA of $18.8 million was higher than expected due to high 1Q2020 forward cover and hedging gains. Solid forward cover of 85% of 1Q2020 available days booked at $10,300/day helped offset the dry bulk market weakness, and hedging gains of $7.9 million helped push EBITDA above our estimate of $13.9 million. In addition, lower G&A expenses partially offset lower TCE revenue and higher opex.

    Adjusting 2020 estimates to reflect 1Q2020 operating results, lower forward cover and weaker dry bulk market fundamentals. 2Q2020 is off to a slow start and forward cover is lower at 67% of available 2Q2020 days booked at $8,110/day. We are lowering estimated 2020 EBITDA to $60.0 million from $80.0 million, as softer market fundamentals have extended into the quarter and…



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Genco Shipping & Trading Limited (GNK) – Solid Quarter, But Rough Sledding Ahead Before 2H2020 Recovery

Friday, May 8, 2020

Genco Shipping & Trading Limited (GNK)

Solid Quarter, But Rough Sledding Ahead Before 2H2020 Recovery

Genco Shipping & Trading Limited, incorporated on September 27, 2004, transports iron ore, coal, grain, steel products and other drybulk cargoes along shipping routes through the ownership and operation of drybulk carrier vessels. The Company is engaged in the ocean transportation of drybulk cargoes around the world through the ownership and operation of drybulk carrier vessels. As of December 31, 2016, its fleet consisted of 61 drybulk carriers, including 13 Capesize, six Panamax, four Ultramax, 21 Supramax, two Handymax and 15 Handysize drybulk carriers, with an aggregate carrying capacity of approximately 4,735,000 deadweight tons (dwt). Of the vessels in its fleet, 15 are on spot market-related time charters, and 27 are on fixed-rate time charter contracts. As of December 31, 2016, additionally, 19 of the vessels in its fleet were operating in vessel pools.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Adjusted 1Q2020 EBITDA of $17.9 million was below our estimate of $19.3 million, mainly due to lower than expected TCE rates of $9.8k/day, or ~$700 below our estimate. Operating results were partially insulated from weak market conditions due to the forward cover of 79% of 1Q2020 days booked at $10.9k/day, but the remainder of the quarter was weaker than expected. Scrubbers on Capes and lower downtime were positives versus last year.

    Lowering 2020 EBITDA estimate to $83.4 million from $108.2 million based on lower TCE rates of $10.7k/day due to dry bulk market weakness, tighter fuel spreads and a smaller fleet. Forward cover is not as attractive this quarter with 62% of 2Q2020 days booked at $6.8k/day, and EBITDA is likely to be much weaker in 2Q2020. Softer market fundamentals have extended into the quarter and…



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Solid Quarter, But Rough Sledding Ahead Before 2H2020 Recovery

Friday, May 8, 2020

Genco Shipping & Trading Limited (GNK)

Solid Quarter, But Rough Sledding Ahead Before 2H2020 Recovery

Genco Shipping & Trading Limited, incorporated on September 27, 2004, transports iron ore, coal, grain, steel products and other drybulk cargoes along shipping routes through the ownership and operation of drybulk carrier vessels. The Company is engaged in the ocean transportation of drybulk cargoes around the world through the ownership and operation of drybulk carrier vessels. As of December 31, 2016, its fleet consisted of 61 drybulk carriers, including 13 Capesize, six Panamax, four Ultramax, 21 Supramax, two Handymax and 15 Handysize drybulk carriers, with an aggregate carrying capacity of approximately 4,735,000 deadweight tons (dwt). Of the vessels in its fleet, 15 are on spot market-related time charters, and 27 are on fixed-rate time charter contracts. As of December 31, 2016, additionally, 19 of the vessels in its fleet were operating in vessel pools.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Adjusted 1Q2020 EBITDA of $17.9 million was below our estimate of $19.3 million, mainly due to lower than expected TCE rates of $9.8k/day, or ~$700 below our estimate. Operating results were partially insulated from weak market conditions due to the forward cover of 79% of 1Q2020 days booked at $10.9k/day, but the remainder of the quarter was weaker than expected. Scrubbers on Capes and lower downtime were positives versus last year.

    Lowering 2020 EBITDA estimate to $83.4 million from $108.2 million based on lower TCE rates of $10.7k/day due to dry bulk market weakness, tighter fuel spreads and a smaller fleet. Forward cover is not as attractive this quarter with 62% of 2Q2020 days booked at $6.8k/day, and EBITDA is likely to be much weaker in 2Q2020. Softer market fundamentals have extended into the quarter and…



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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – Exceptional quarter to start the year on a positive note.

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)

Exceptional quarter to start the year on a positive note.

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp is a provider of dredging services in the United States. The company only’s operating segments is Dredging. Dredging involves the enhancement or preservation of navigability of waterways or the protection of shorelines through the removal or replenishment of soil, sand or rock. Its projects portfolio includes Coastal Restoration, Coastal Protection, Port expansion, and others.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    High equipment utilization and strong project execution drove higher profitability. Record 1Q2020 operating results beat expectations across the board due to strong growth in
    revenue, gross profit and EBITDA.

    Increasing 2020 EBITDA estimate to $159 million from $140 million. 1Q2020 will be best quarter of year, but outlook remains positive. Similar to last year, 1Q2020 is likely to be the strongest quarter of the year. While revenue and gross margin are likely to moderate over the rest of the year due to planned fleet downtime, several factors are positive for…


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Exceptional quarter to start the year on a positive note.

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)

Exceptional quarter to start the year on a positive note.

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp is a provider of dredging services in the United States. The company only’s operating segments is Dredging. Dredging involves the enhancement or preservation of navigability of waterways or the protection of shorelines through the removal or replenishment of soil, sand or rock. Its projects portfolio includes Coastal Restoration, Coastal Protection, Port expansion, and others.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    High equipment utilization and strong project execution drove higher profitability. Record 1Q2020 operating results beat expectations across the board due to strong growth in
    revenue, gross profit and EBITDA.

    Increasing 2020 EBITDA estimate to $159 million from $140 million. 1Q2020 will be best quarter of year, but outlook remains positive. Similar to last year, 1Q2020 is likely to be the strongest quarter of the year. While revenue and gross margin are likely to moderate over the rest of the year due to planned fleet downtime, several factors are positive for…


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Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – A Strong Start to Year. Only Minor Disruptions So Far Despite COVID-19.

Friday, May 1, 2020

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

A Strong Start to Year. Only Minor Disruptions So Far Despite COVID-19.

Orion Group Holdings, based in Houston, Texas, is a specialty construction company within the Marine and Industrial Construction sectors, with operations focused in the continental United States and Caribbean. Revenue is split roughly 50/50 between a Marine Construction segment that provides marine facility, pipeline and structural construction services and a Commercial Concrete segment that provides turnkey concrete services in the light commercial and structural construction markets.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Another strong quarter driven by solid execution, especially in Marine business. 1Q2020 gross profit of $19.8 million and EBITDA of $12.2 million easily beat our estimates of $12.0 million and $6.2 million, respectively. Gross margin and EBITDA margin were ~400 basis points higher than expected mainly due to strong Marine execution and higher equipment utilization. Concrete also improved modestly. 1Q2020 backlog rebounded to $610 million from $572 million, with Marine up $22 million to $362 million and Concrete up $16 million to $247 million, a record. Bidding remains active in both segments.

    Increasing 2020 EBITDA estimate despite suspended guidance. Minor disruptions seen to date and bidding activity continues in both segments, but suspending guidance is the safe route, one similar to many other companies. There are increasing risks to existing projects, but work goes on and we expect EBITDA will move up more than…


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A Strong Start to Year. Only Minor Disruptions So Far Despite COVID-19.

Friday, May 1, 2020

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

A Strong Start to Year. Only Minor Disruptions So Far Despite COVID-19.

Orion Group Holdings, based in Houston, Texas, is a specialty construction company within the Marine and Industrial Construction sectors, with operations focused in the continental United States and Caribbean. Revenue is split roughly 50/50 between a Marine Construction segment that provides marine facility, pipeline and structural construction services and a Commercial Concrete segment that provides turnkey concrete services in the light commercial and structural construction markets.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Another strong quarter driven by solid execution, especially in Marine business. 1Q2020 gross profit of $19.8 million and EBITDA of $12.2 million easily beat our estimates of $12.0 million and $6.2 million, respectively. Gross margin and EBITDA margin were ~400 basis points higher than expected mainly due to strong Marine execution and higher equipment utilization. Concrete also improved modestly. 1Q2020 backlog rebounded to $610 million from $572 million, with Marine up $22 million to $362 million and Concrete up $16 million to $247 million, a record. Bidding remains active in both segments.

    Increasing 2020 EBITDA estimate despite suspended guidance. Minor disruptions seen to date and bidding activity continues in both segments, but suspending guidance is the safe route, one similar to many other companies. There are increasing risks to existing projects, but work goes on and we expect EBITDA will move up more than…


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Research – Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – A Strong Start to Year, But Suspending Guidance Due to COVID-19

Thursday, April 30, 2020

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

A Strong Start to Year, But Suspending Guidance Due to COVID-19

Orion Group Holdings, based in Houston, Texas, is a specialty construction company within the Marine and Industrial Construction sectors, with operations focused in the continental United States and Caribbean. Revenue is split roughly 50/50 between a Marine Construction segment that provides marine facility, pipeline and structural construction services and a Commercial Concrete segment that provides turnkey concrete services in the light commercial and structural construction markets.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Another strong quarter driven by solid execution. 1Q2020 gross profit of $19.8 million and EBITDA of $12.2 million easily beat our estimates of $12.0 million and $6.2 million, respectively. Gross margin of 11.6% and EBITDA margin of 7.3% were ~400 basis points higher than expected. Main driver was higher Marine profitability due to strong execution and higher equipment utilization. Concrete also improved modestly.

    Suspending 2020 EBITDA guidance due to uncertainty caused by COVID-19. Minor disruptions seen to date and bidding activity continues in both segments, but taking the safe route, similar to many other companies. Our revised estimate is…


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Research orion group holdings orn a strong start to year but suspending guidance due to covid 19

Thursday, April 30, 2020

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

A Strong Start to Year, But Suspending Guidance Due to COVID-19

Orion Group Holdings, based in Houston, Texas, is a specialty construction company within the Marine and Industrial Construction sectors, with operations focused in the continental United States and Caribbean. Revenue is split roughly 50/50 between a Marine Construction segment that provides marine facility, pipeline and structural construction services and a Commercial Concrete segment that provides turnkey concrete services in the light commercial and structural construction markets.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Another strong quarter driven by solid execution. 1Q2020 gross profit of $19.8 million and EBITDA of $12.2 million easily beat our estimates of $12.0 million and $6.2 million, respectively. Gross margin of 11.6% and EBITDA margin of 7.3% were ~400 basis points higher than expected. Main driver was higher Marine profitability due to strong execution and higher equipment utilization. Concrete also improved modestly.

    Suspending 2020 EBITDA guidance due to uncertainty caused by COVID-19. Minor disruptions seen to date and bidding activity continues in both segments, but taking the safe route, similar to many other companies. Our revised estimate is…


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Research – Pyxis Tankers Inc. (PXS) – Floating Storage Enhances Refined Product Tanker Outlook

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Pyxis Tankers Inc. (PXS)

Floating Storage Enhances Refined Product Tanker Outlook

Pyxis Tankers Inc is a United States-based international maritime transportation company which focuses on the product tanker sector. It owns a fleet which comprises of double hull product tankers employed under a mix of short- and medium-term time charters and spot charters. The fleet owned by the company includes Pyxis Epsilon, Pyxis Theta, Pyxis Malou, Pyxis Delta, Northsea Alpha, and Northsea Beta. Each of the vessels in the fleet is capable of transporting refined petroleum products, such as naphtha, gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene, diesel, fuel oil, and other liquid bulk items, such as vegetable oils and organic chemicals.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Floating storage demand is boosting near-term refined product tanker market outlook. Global crude oil and refined product demand has dropped sharply due to measures to curb the Coronavirus and onshore storage capacity is filling up. The net result is higher demand for floating storage. Initially, crude oil tankers were positively impacted, but traders/marketers are looking for refined product tankers for storage of refined products to take advantage of attractive market conditions. As a result, the near-term outlook for MRs has improved markedly and TCE rates are moving higher. While it is difficult to predict when floating storage demand moderates and inventory destocking will ramp up, the long-term fundamentals remain attractive due to a shift in refining capacity in the eastern hemisphere and a limited order book (at the lowest level since 2000).

    Maintaining 2020 EBITDA estimate, but positive surprises could materialize. Our 2020 EBITDA estimate remains at $6.9 million based on TCE rates of $13.5k/day and 1,589 operating days. Two one-year options recently expired so now all of the MRs are slated to reprice in 2Q2020; the Malou and Theta over the next month and the Epsilon in late June after a special survey. Operating leverage is high and each $1,000/day increase on the three MRs equates to EBITDA of $0.5 million over 2H2020. Due to Coronavirus related admin disruptions, 1Q2020 operating results could be pushed out into…


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