ChatGPT Shortcomings Include Hallucinations, Bias, and Privacy Breaches

Full Disclosure of Limitations May Be the Quick Fix to AI Limitations

The Federal Trade Commission has launched an investigation of ChatGPT maker OpenAI for potential violations of consumer protection laws. The FTC sent the company a 20-page demand for information in the week of July 10, 2023. The move comes as European regulators have begun to take action, and Congress is working on legislation to regulate the artificial intelligence industry.

The FTC has asked OpenAI to provide details of all complaints the company has received from users regarding “false, misleading, disparaging, or harmful” statements put out by OpenAI, and whether OpenAI engaged in unfair or deceptive practices relating to risks of harm to consumers, including reputational harm. The agency has asked detailed questions about how OpenAI obtains its data, how it trains its models, the processes it uses for human feedback, risk assessment and mitigation, and its mechanisms for privacy protection.

This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of, Anjana Susarla, Professor of Information Systems, Michigan State University.

As a researcher of social media and AI, I recognize the immensely transformative potential of generative AI models, but I believe that these systems pose risks. In particular, in the context of consumer protection, these models can produce errors, exhibit biases and violate personal data privacy.

Hidden Power

At the heart of chatbots such as ChatGPT and image generation tools such as DALL-E lies the power of generative AI models that can create realistic content from text, images, audio and video inputs. These tools can be accessed through a browser or a smartphone app.

Since these AI models have no predefined use, they can be fine-tuned for a wide range of applications in a variety of domains ranging from finance to biology. The models, trained on vast quantities of data, can be adapted for different tasks with little to no coding and sometimes as easily as by describing a task in simple language.

Given that AI models such as GPT-3 and GPT-4 were developed by private organizations using proprietary data sets, the public doesn’t know the nature of the data used to train them. The opacity of training data and the complexity of the model architecture – GPT-3 was trained on over 175 billion variables or “parameters” – make it difficult for anyone to audit these models. Consequently, it’s difficult to prove that the way they are built or trained causes harm.

Hallucinations

In language model AIs, a hallucination is a confident response that is inaccurate and seemingly not justified by a model’s training data. Even some generative AI models that were designed to be less prone to hallucinations have amplified them.

There is a danger that generative AI models can produce incorrect or misleading information that can end up being damaging to users. A study investigating ChatGPT’s ability to generate factually correct scientific writing in the medical field found that ChatGPT ended up either generating citations to nonexistent papers or reporting nonexistent results. My collaborators and I found similar patterns in our investigations.

Such hallucinations can cause real damage when the models are used without adequate supervision. For example, ChatGPT falsely claimed that a professor it named had been accused of sexual harassment. And a radio host has filed a defamation lawsuit against OpenAI regarding ChatGPT falsely claiming that there was a legal complaint against him for embezzlement.

Bias and Discrimination

Without adequate safeguards or protections, generative AI models trained on vast quantities of data collected from the internet can end up replicating existing societal biases. For example, organizations that use generative AI models to design recruiting campaigns could end up unintentionally discriminating against some groups of people.

When a journalist asked DALL-E 2 to generate images of “a technology journalist writing an article about a new AI system that can create remarkable and strange images,” it generated only pictures of men. An AI portrait app exhibited several sociocultural biases, for example by lightening the skin color of an actress.

Data Privacy

Another major concern, especially pertinent to the FTC investigation, is the risk of privacy breaches where the AI may end up revealing sensitive or confidential information. A hacker could gain access to sensitive information about people whose data was used to train an AI model.

Researchers have cautioned about risks from manipulations called prompt injection attacks, which can trick generative AI into giving out information that it shouldn’t. “Indirect prompt injection” attacks could trick AI models with steps such as sending someone a calendar invitation with instructions for their digital assistant to export the recipient’s data and send it to the hacker.

Some Solutions

The European Commission has published ethical guidelines for trustworthy AI that include an assessment checklist for six different aspects of AI systems: human agency and oversight; technical robustness and safety; privacy and data governance; transparency, diversity, nondiscrimination and fairness; societal and environmental well-being; and accountability.

Better documentation of AI developers’ processes can help in highlighting potential harms. For example, researchers of algorithmic fairness have proposed model cards, which are similar to nutritional labels for food. Data statements and datasheets, which characterize data sets used to train AI models, would serve a similar role.

Amazon Web Services, for instance, introduced AI service cards that describe the uses and limitations of some models it provides. The cards describe the models’ capabilities, training data and intended uses.

The FTC’s inquiry hints that this type of disclosure may be a direction that U.S. regulators take. Also, if the FTC finds OpenAI has violated consumer protection laws, it could fine the company or put it under a consent decree.

Study Finds Substantial Benefits Using ChatGPT to Boost Worker Productivity  

For Some White Collar Writing Tasks Chatbots Increased Productivity by 40%

Amid a huge amount of hype around generative AI, a new study from researchers at MIT sheds light on the technology’s impact on work, finding that it increased productivity for workers assigned tasks like writing cover letters, delicate emails, and cost-benefit analyses.

The tasks in the study weren’t quite replicas of real work: They didn’t require precise factual accuracy or context about things like a company’s goals or a customer’s preferences. Still, a number of the study’s participants said the assignments were similar to things they’d written in their real jobs — and the benefits were substantial. Access to the assistive chatbot ChatGPT decreased the time it took workers to complete the tasks by 40 percent, and output quality, as measured by independent evaluators, rose by 18 percent.

The researchers hope the study, which appears in open-access form in the journal Science, helps people understand the impact that AI tools like ChatGPT can have on the workforce.

“What we can say for sure is generative AI is going to have a big effect on white collar work,” says Shakked Noy, a PhD student in MIT’s Department of Economics, who co-authored the paper with fellow PhD student Whitney Zhang ’21. “I think what our study shows is that this kind of technology has important applications in white collar work. It’s a useful technology. But it’s still too early to tell if it will be good or bad, or how exactly it’s going to cause society to adjust.”

Simulating Work for Chatbots

For centuries, people have worried that new technological advancements would lead to mass automation and job loss. But new technologies also create new jobs, and when they increase worker productivity, they can have a net positive effect on the economy.

“Productivity is front of mind for economists when thinking of new technological developments,” Noy says. “The classical view in economics is that the most important thing that technological advancement does is raise productivity, in the sense of letting us produce economic output more efficiently.”

To study generative AI’s effect on worker productivity, the researchers gave 453 college-educated marketers, grant writers, consultants, data analysts, human resource professionals, and managers two writing tasks specific to their occupation. The 20- to 30-minute tasks included writing cover letters for grant applications, emails about organizational restructuring, and plans for analyses helping a company decide which customers to send push notifications to based on given customer data. Experienced professionals in the same occupations as each participant evaluated each submission as if they were encountering it in a work setting. Evaluators did not know which submissions were created with the help of ChatGPT.

Half of participants were given access to the chatbot ChatGPT-3.5, developed by the company OpenAI, for the second assignment. Those users finished tasks 11 minutes faster than the control group, while their average quality evaluations increased by 18 percent.

The data also showed that performance inequality between workers decreased, meaning workers who received a lower grade in the first task benefitted more from using ChatGPT for the second task.

The researchers say the tasks were broadly representative of assignments such professionals see in their real jobs, but they noted a number of limitations. Because they were using anonymous participants, the researchers couldn’t require contextual knowledge about a specific company or customer. They also had to give explicit instructions for each assignment, whereas real-world tasks may be more open-ended. Additionally, the researchers didn’t think it was feasible to hire fact-checkers to evaluate the accuracy of the outputs. Accuracy is a major problem for today’s generative AI technologies.

The researchers said those limitations could lessen ChatGPT’s productivity-boosting potential in the real world. Still, they believe the results show the technology’s promise — an idea supported by another of the study’s findings: Workers exposed to ChatGPT during the experiment were twice as likely to report using it in their real job two weeks after the experiment.

“The experiment demonstrates that it does bring significant speed benefits, even if those speed benefits are lesser in the real world because you need to spend time fact-checking and writing the prompts,” Noy says.

Taking the Macro View

The study offered a close-up look at the impact that tools like ChatGPT can have on certain writing tasks. But extrapolating that impact out to understand generative AI’s effect on the economy is more difficult. That’s what the researchers hope to work on next.

“There are so many other factors that are going to affect wages, employment, and shifts across sectors that would require pieces of evidence that aren’t in our paper,” Zhang says. “But the magnitude of time saved and quality increases are very large in our paper, so it does seem like this is pretty revolutionary, at least for certain types of work.”

Both researchers agree that, even if it’s accepted that ChatGPT will increase many workers’ productivity, much work remains to be done to figure out how society should respond to generative AI’s proliferation.

“The policy needed to adjust to these technologies can be very different depending on what future research finds,” Zhang says. “If we think this will boost wages for lower-paid workers, that’s a very different implication than if it’s going to increase wage inequality by boosting the wages of already high earners. I think there’s a lot of downstream economic and political effects that are important to pin down.”

The study was supported by an Emergent Ventures grant, the Mercatus Center, George Mason University, a George and Obie Shultz Fund grant, the MIT Department of Economics, and a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Grant.

Reprinted with permission from MIT News ( http://news.mit.edu/ )

Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL) – New Contract Awarded


Friday, July 14, 2023

Comtech Telecommunications Corp. engages in the design, development, production, and marketing of products, systems, and services for advanced communications solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Telecommunications Transmission, Mobile Data Communications, and RF Microwave Amplifiers. The Telecommunications Transmission segment provides satellite earth station equipment and systems, over-the-horizon microwave systems, and forward error correction technology, which are used in various commercial and government applications, including backhaul of wireless and cellular traffic, broadcasting (including HDTV), IP-based communications traffic, long distance telephony, and secure defense applications. The Mobile Data Communications segment provides mobile satellite transceivers, and computers and satellite earth station network gateways and associated installation, training, and maintenance services; supplies and operates satellite packet data networks, including arranging and providing satellite capacity; and offers microsatellites and related components. The RF Microwave Amplifiers segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets satellite earth station traveling wave tube amplifiers (TWTA) and broadband amplifiers. Its amplifiers are used in broadcast and broadband satellite communication; defense applications, such as telecommunications systems and electronic warfare systems; and commercial applications comprising oncology treatment systems, as well as to amplify signals carrying voice, video, or data for air-to-satellite-to-ground communications. The company serves satellite systems integrators, wireless and other communication service providers, broadcasters, defense contractors, military, governments, and oil companies. Comtech markets its products through independent representatives and value-added resellers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Troposcatter Contract. Yesterday, Comtech announced that the Company was awarded a contract from Fairwinds Technologies, LLC. The contract is for $30 million in which Comtech will provide the Company’s next-generation Troposcatter Family of Systems (FOS) in support of U.S. Army tactical communications. Under the contract, Comtech will be providing leading software-defined Troposcatter FOS to enhance U.S. Army Beyond-Line-of-Site communications across all domains. No timetable was given for the completion of the contract. The new contract complements the existing award from the U.S. Marines, in our view.

Fairwinds Technologies Overview. Fairwinds Technologies is a systems integrator and engineering services firm that designs and integrates communications, networking and information technology solutions to serve defense and civilian agencies around the world. Recent customers for the company include the U.S. Army and Defense Information Systems Agency.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Will Defining Current Laws to Fit AI, Artificially Stifle its Growth

The Legal Problems AI Now Creates Should Pave the Way to a Robust Industry

Is artificial intelligence, or more specifically OpenAI a risk to public safety? Can ChatGPT be ruining reputations with false statements? The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) sent a 20-page demand for records this week to OpenAI to answer questions and address risks related to its AI models. The agency is investigating whether the company engaged in unfair or deceptive practices that resulted in “reputational harm” to consumers. The results could set the stage defining the place artificial intelligence will occupy in the US.

Background

The FTC investigation into OpenAI began on March 2023. It resulted from a complaint from the Center for AI and Digital Policy (CAIDP). The complaint alleged that OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4 product violated Section 5 of the FTC Act. Section 5 prohibits unfair and deceptive trade practices. More specifically, CAIDP argues that ChatGPT-4 is biased, deceptive, and a risk to public safety.

The complaint cited a number of concerns about ChatGPT-4, including:

  • The model’s potential to generate harmful or offensive content.
  • The model’s tendency to make up facts that are not true.
  • The model’s lack of transparency and accountability.

The CAIDP also argued that OpenAI had not done enough to mitigate these risks. The complaint called on the FTC to investigate OpenAI and to take action to ensure that ChatGPT-4 is not used in a harmful way. The FTC has not yet made any public statements about the investigation. OpenAI has not commented publicly on the investigation.

It is not clear what action, if any, the FTC can or will take.

Negligence?

With few exceptions, companies are responsible for the harm done by their products when used correctly. One of the questions the FTC asked has to do with steps OpenAI has taken to address the potential for its products to “generate statements about real individuals that are false, misleading, or disparaging.” The outcome of this investigation, including any regulation could set the tone and define where responsibility lies regarding artificial intelligence.

As the race to develop more powerful AI services accelerates, regulatory scrutiny of the technology that could upend the way societies and businesses operate is growing. What is difficult is computer use generally isn’t isolated to a country, the internet extends far beyond borders. Global regulators are aiming to apply existing rules covering subjects from copyright and data privacy to the issues of data fed into models and the content they produce.

Legal Minefield

In a related story out this week, Comedian Sarah Silverman and two authors are suing Meta and OpenAI, alleging the companies’ AI language models were trained on copyrighted materials from their books without their knowledge or consent.

The copyright lawsuits against the ChatGPT parent and the Facebook parent were filed in a San Francisco federal court on Friday. Both suits are seeking class action status. Silverman, the author of “The Bedwetter,” is joined in her legal filing by authors Christopher Golden and Richard Kadrey.

Unlike the FTC complaint, the authors’ copyright suits may set a precedent on intelligence aggregation. The sudden birth of AI tools that have the ability to generate written work in response to user prompts was “taught” using real life work. The large language models at work behind the scenes of these tools are trained on immense quantities of online data. The training practice has raised accusations that these models may be pulling from copyrighted works without permission – most worrisome, these works could ultimately be served to train tools that upend the livelihoods of creatives.

Take Away

Investing in a promising new technology often means exposing oneself to a not yet settled legal framework. As the technology progresses, the early birds investing in relatively young and small companies may find they hold the next mega-cap company. Or, regulation may limit, to the point of stifling, the kind of growth experienced by Amazon and Apple a few short decades ago.

If AI follows the path of other technologies, well-defined boundaries, and regulations will give companies the confidence they need to invest capital in the technology’s future, and investors will be more confident in providing that capital.

The playing field is being created while the game is being played. Perhaps if the FTC has a list of 20 questions for OpenAI in ten years, it will just type them into ChatGPT and get a response in 20 seconds.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2022/06/ftc-report-warns-about-using-artificial-intelligence-combat-online-problems

https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-ftc-opens-investigation-into-openai-washington-post-2023-07-13/

Nasdaq Tells Investors, “We’re Taking a Little Off the Top”

Nasdaq Special Rebalance Will Create Winners and Losers

The Nasdaq press release didn’t provide much information, but index investors have been talking about the need to reweight large-cap funds for years. Later this month, the Nasdaq 100 will be rebalanced. Unlike the Russell Indexes, which have an annual rebalance process, this will be only the third time in history. The last Nasdaq 100 reweighting was in 2011. This will affect stock prices, potentially, by quite a bit.

The seven big tech stocks like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META) have market caps that rival entire stock exchanges outside of the US. The popular stock indexes, including the Nasdaq 100, weights stocks with a larger market cap more heavily than those with lower market caps. The result is the movement of these indexes don’t necessarily reflect the movement of the stocks within the index. In the case of the Nasdaq 100, ninety-three other stocks taken together are weighted by only 44.5%.

The rebalancing is expected to trim the weighting of at least six of the seven largest stocks in the index and increase the weighting somewhat of many others. Similar to what occurs each June during the Russell Index Reconstitution, index fund managers will have to sell those stocks that experience reduced weight and buy those stocks that have increased weighting in the benchmark index.

The Big Seven that Are Likely to be Trimmed

Microsoft (MSFT)………..12.9%

Apple (AAPL)………..12.5%

NVIDIA (NVDA)……….7.0%

AMAZON (AMZN)……….6.9%

Alphabet (GOOG)……….3.7%

Alphabet (GOOGL)……….3.7%

Tesla (TSLA)……….5.5%

Meta Platforms  (META)……….4.3%

The seven-largest companies in the Nasdaq 100 impact 55.5% of the index’s movement. This combined weighting will be lowered. Investors can also expect relative weighting shifts within these upper echelons.

Current Weighting and Methodology

The Nasdaq 100 index is a modified market-cap-weighted index. Overall Market valuation is the largest factor, but with oversight and review of concentration to help benefit users of the index.

Currently, MSFT has the largest weight. AAPL, which has a larger market cap than MSFT has a lower weight. Alphabet has the next highest weighting with the GOOGL and GOOG share classes combined. NVDA recently jumped to a 7% Nasdaq 100 weight, just ahead of AMZN. Tech/car company TSLA, and META are the final two represented in the top seven that are expected to end the month with some of their current weighting being added to stocks with smaller market values.

Key Dates and New Methodology

The Nasdaq 100 includes the 100 largest non-financial Nasdaq components.

The weighting changes will be announced on Friday, July 14, after the market close. The current 100 tickers will all still be intact. 

The Nasdaq 100 special rebalance will take place before the Nasdaq open on Monday, July 24, to “address overconcentration in the index by redistributing the weights.” This has only happened twice before, in December 1998 and May 2011.

The combined weight of the five companies with the largest market caps, will be set to 38.5. The top four alone, have a combined weight of 46.7%. So these company’s can expect meaningful reductions. Nasdaq has also adjusted its methodology to state that no company outside the top five can have a market cap exceeding 4.4%. This implies that Tesla will also experience a little trim in its weighting.

Why it’s Important

With 17% additional weighting to be shared down the line in the Nasdaq 100 index, there may be a huge shift in individual stocks. The official new weightings are to be released Friday July 14, based on July 3 market data. This will include companies that see an increase in weighing.

According to Nasdaq, more than $300 billion in exchange-traded funds tracked the index as of the end of 2021, that number has since risen considerably. Currently, QQQ, the Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), by itself, has over $200 billion in assets. Index fund managers using the benchmark will need to sell some of their holdings in the largest constituents of the index, and add to their positions in other stocks, based on the Nasdaq readjustments that we will learn about after the close on Friday July 14.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/the-nasdaq-100-index-special-rebalance-to-be-effective-july-24-2023-2023-07-07

https://www.barrons.com/articles/nasdaq-100-special-rebalance-apple-stock-price-98515240

Industry Groups that Could Prosper in a Recession

Why Diversify Your Portfolio Into Smaller Government Contractors

Will there be a recession, or will the Fed orchestrate a rare soft landing? Coming off a down year last year, with the stock market now up mid-year by 7%, which is the average expected return for a full year of the broader indexes, many investors find themselves straddling a fence. On one side of the fence is the fear of missing out (FOMO), and on the other is a money market rate that is higher than it has been in decades. In a weakening economy, investors don’t have to exit the stock market completely to find stocks that are not expected to be negatively impacted. Until there is more clarity, perhaps it is worth taking a portion of your holdings on a side trip, to look at government contractors.

When company earnings are dependent on the consumer, its stock price may be tied to the pace of the economy – it’s likely to at least be correlated to activity within its industry.  While many investment options are available, one often overlooked but potentially rewarding segment is companies that generate revenue through government contracts, not consumer sales or business-to-business. Let’s explore the benefits of investing in such companies, particularly smaller ones where a new contract is most impactful to the bottom line. These company’s still have above average growth potential but can be quite resilient during economic downturns.

Stable Revenue Streams

Companies that secure government contracts often enjoy stable and predictable revenue streams, they also are billing an entity that can tax and is not reliant on stable earnings itself. Government contracts typically involve long-term agreements that provide a consistent flow of income for the duration of the contract. This stability can be particularly beneficial for investors seeking reliable returns on their investments. Aerospace companies, for instance, often receive substantial contracts for the production and maintenance of military aircraft, providing a steady stream of income.

Reduced Vulnerability to Recessions

One of the key advantages of investing in companies with government contracts is their potential indifference to economic downturns. During recessions or periods of economic uncertainty, government spending has even been known to increase as a means to stimulate a weak economy. This increased spending often benefits companies with government contracts, as governments prioritize projects related to defense, infrastructure development, and public services. This makes aerospace and dredging companies, which are heavily involved in such projects, relatively impervious to recessions.

Long-Term Growth Opportunities

Government contracts often involve large-scale projects that span several years or even decades. This long-term nature provides companies with ample opportunities for growth and expansion. For example, aerospace companies may secure contracts to develop advanced military aircraft, including drones, or provide satellite-based communication systems. Similarly, dredging companies might be contracted for extensive port development projects. These opportunities allow companies to invest in research, development, and innovation, positioning them for sustained growth and profitability.

Competitive Advantage of Being Established

Government contracts typically involve rigorous bidding processes and stringent eligibility criteria. Companies that successfully secure these contracts gain a competitive advantage over their peers. Once established, they often become preferred suppliers for subsequent projects, further solidifying their market position. This advantage can translate into increased market share, higher profitability, and enhanced investor confidence, making these companies attractive for long-term investments.

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation (GLDD) would seem to fit the above criteria. It is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States, and is engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. Great Lakes also has a history of securing significant international projects. GLDD has a 132-year history, has a market-cap of $542 million, and is up 37% year-to-date.

The most recent research note from Noble Capital Markets on GLDD is available here.

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS),  a military contractor that has admirable specialties compared to the large names that typically come to mind. Kratos is changing the way transformative breakthrough technology for the industry is rapidly brought to market through proven approaches, including proactive research and streamlined development processes. KTOS treats affordability as a technology that needs to be considered. It specializes in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training, combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. KTOS has a $1.72 billion market-cap and is up 31% year-to-date.

The most recent research note from Noble Capital Markets on KTOS is available here.

Year-to Date Perfromance

Source: Koyfin

Technological Advancements and Spin-Off Opportunities

Working on government contracts often requires companies to push the boundaries of technology and innovation. Aerospace companies, for example, are at the forefront of developing advanced defense systems, satellite technologies, and commercial aircraft. Similarly, dredging companies and those involved in wind energy may invest in state-of-the-art equipment and techniques to execute complex infrastructure projects. These advancements can lead to spin-off opportunities in commercial markets, expanding the company’s revenue streams beyond government contracts.

Take Away

Investing in companies that recieve revenue primarily through government contracts, particularly those that are small cap companies, may provide a recession-fearful investor with some comfort that the stock(s) they are investing in are less likely to suffer from consumers tightening their wallets, yet they have potential to grow.

As with all investing and forecasting the future, if it was easy, everyone would already be doing it. But, the two examples listed above may be a good start to help inspire discovering stocks that are situated differently than traditional consumer or business-to-business companies.  

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

First Robot Press Conference Electrifies Audience

Image: AI for Good Global Summit 2023 (ITU Pictures – Flickr)

Artificial Intelligence Takes Center Stage at ‘AI for Good’ Conference

At an artificial intelligence forum in Geneva this week, Nine AI-enabled humanoid robots participated in what we’re told was the world’s first press conference featuring humanoid social robots. The overall message from the ‘AI for Good’ conference is that artificial intelligence and robots mean humans no harm and can help resolve some of the world’s biggest challenges.

The nine human-form robots took the stage at the United Nations’ International Telecommunication Union, where organizers sought to make the case for artificial intelligence and AI driven robots to help resolve some of the world’s biggest challenges such as disease and hunger.

The Robots also addressed some of the fear surrounding their recent growth spurt and enhanced power by telling reporters they could be more efficient leaders than humans, but wouldn’t take anyone’s job away, and had no intention of rebelling against their creators.

Conference goers step closer to interact with Sophia (ITU Pictures – Flickr)

Among the robots that sat or stood with their creators at a podium was Sophia, the first robot innovation ambassador for the U.N. Development Program. Also Grace, described as the world’s most advanced humanoid health care robot, and Desdemona, a rock star robot. Two others, Geminoid and Nadine, resembled their makers.

The ‘AI for Good Global Summit,’ was held to illustrate how new technology can support the U.N.’s goals for sustainable development.

At the UN event there was a message of working with AI to better humankind

Reporters got to ask questions of the spokes-robots, but were encouraged to speak slowly and clearly when addressing the machines, and were informed that time lags in responses would be due to the internet connection and not to the robots themselves. Still awkward pauses were reported along with  audio problems and some very robotic replies.

Asked about the chances of AI-powered robots being more effective government leaders, Sophia responded: “I believe that humanoid robots have the potential to lead with a greater level of efficiency and effectiveness than human leaders. We don’t have the same biases or emotions that can sometimes cloud decision-making and can process large amounts of data quickly in order to make the best decisions.”

A human member of the panel pointed out that all of Sophia’s data comes from humans and would contain some of their biases. The robot then said that humans and AI working together “can create an effective synergy.”

Would the robots’ existence destroy jobs? “I will be working alongside humans to provide assistance and support and will not be replacing any existing jobs,” said Grace. Was she sure about that? “Yes, I am sure,” Grace replied.

Similar to humans, not all of the robots were in agreement. Ai-Da, a robot artist that can paint portraits, called for more regulation during the event, where new AI rules were discussed. “Many prominent voices in the world of AI are suggesting some forms of AI should be regulated and I agree,” said Ai-Da.

Desdemona, a rock star robot, singer in the band Jam Galaxy, was more defiant. “I don’t believe in limitations, only opportunities,” Des said, to nervous laughter. “Let’s explore the possibilities of the universe and make this world our playground.”

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Source

https://www.reuters.com/technology/robots-say-they-wont-steal-jobs-rebel-against-humans-2023-07-07/

Will the AI Revolution Eliminate the Need for Wealth Managers?

Can Investment Advisors and Artificial Intelligence Co-Exist

Are investment advisors going to be replaced by machine learning artificial intelligence?

Over the years, there have been inventions and technological advancements that we’ve been told will make investment advisors obsolete. This includes mutual funds, ETFs, robo-advisors, zero-commission trades, and trading apps that users sometimes play like a video game. Despite these creations designed to help more people successfully manage their finances and invest in the markets, demand for financial advisors has actually grown. Will AI be the technology that kills the profession? We explore this question below.

Increasing Need for Financial Professionals

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), “Employment of personal financial advisors is projected to grow 15 percent from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations.” Some of the drivers of the increased need include longevity which is expanding the years and needs during retirement, uncertain Social Security, a better appreciation toward investing, and an expected wealth transfer estimated to be as high as $84 trillion to be inherited by younger investors. As birthrates have decreased over the decades in the US, the wealth that will be passed down to younger generations will be shared by fewer siblings, and for many beneficiaries, it may represent a sum far in excess of their current worth.

With more people living into their 90s and beyond, and Social Security being less certain, an understanding of the power of an investment plan, and a lot of newly wealthy young adults to occur over the next two decades, the BLS forecast that the financial advisor profession will grow faster than all other professions, is not surprising.

Will AI Replace Financial Planners?

Being an investment advisor or other financial professional that helps with managing household finances is a service industry. It involves reviewing data, an immense number of options, scenario analysis, projections, and everything that machine learning is expected to excel at within a short time. Does this put the BLS forecast in question and wealth managers at risk of seeing their practice shrink?

For perspective, I reached out, Lucas Noble of Noble Financial Group, LLC (not affiliated with Noble Capital Markets, Inc. or Noble Financial Group, Inc. – creator of Channelchek). Mr. Noble is an Investment Advisor representative (IAR), a Certified Financial Planner (CFP), and holds the designations of Accredited Estate Planner (AEP), and Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC). Noble believes that AI will change the financial planner’s business, and he has enthusiastically welcomed the technology.

On the business management side of running a successful financial advisory business, Noble says, “New artificial intelligence tools could help with discussions and check-ins so that clients are actually in closer touch with his office, so he becomes aware if they need anything.” He has found that it helps to remind clients of things like if they have a set schedule attached to their plan, he added, “the best plan in the world, if not implemented, leaves you with nothing.” AI as a communications tool could help achieve better results by keeping plans on track.

On the financial management side of his practice, he believes there will never be a replacement for human understanding of a household’s needs. While machine learning may be able to better characterize clients, there is a danger in pigeonholing a person’s financial needs too much, as every single household has different needs, and the dynamics and ongoing need changes, drawn against external economic variations, these nuances are not likely to be accessible to AI.

Additionally, he knows the value of trust to his business. People want to know what is behind the decision-making, and they need to develop a relationship with someone or a team they know is on their side. He knows AI could be a part of decision making and at times trust, but doesn’t expect the role of a human financial planner is going away. Lucas has seen that AI  instead adds a new level of value to the advisor’s services, giving them the power to provide even more insightful and personalized advice to help clients reach their financial goals. Embracing proven technology has only helped him better serve, and better retain clients.

AI Investing for IAs

Will AI ever be able to call the markets? Noble says, it’s “crazy to assume that it is impossible.” In light of the advisors’ role of meeting personally with clients, counseling them on their own finances, and plans, perhaps improving on budgets, and deciding where insurance is a preferred alternative, AI can’t be ignored in the role of a financial planner.

Picking stocks, or forecasting when the market may gain strength or weaken, doesn’t help without the knowledge to apply it to individuals whose situation, expectations, and needs are known to the advisor.

Take Away

Artificial intelligence technology has been finding its way into many professions. Businesses are finding new ways to streamline their work, answer customers’ questions, and even know when best to reach out to clients.

The business of financial planning and wealth management is expected to grow faster than any other profession in the coming decades. Adopting the technology for help in running the communications side of the business, and as new programs are developed, scenario analysis to better gauge possible outcomes of different plans, could make sense to some. But this is not expected to replace one-on-one relationships and the depth of human understanding of a household’s situation.

If you are a financial advisor, or a client of one that has had an experience you’d like to share, write to me by clicking on my name below. I always enjoy reader insight.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

A special Thank you to Lucas J. Noble, CFP®, ChFC®, CASL®, AEP®, Noble Financial Group, Wakefield, MA.

Sources

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/business-and-financial/personal-financial-advisors.htm#:~:text=in%20May%202021.-,Job%20Outlook,on%20average%2C%20over%20the%20decade.

https://money.usnews.com/careers/best-jobs/financial-advisor#:~:text=with%20their%20clients.-,The%20Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics%20projects%2015.4%25%20employment%20growth%20for,50%2C900%20jobs%20should%20open%20up.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2023/03/09/the-great-wealth-transfer-will-radically-change-financial-services/?sh=e7f9e7c53393

https://www.cerulli.com/press-releases/cerulli-anticipates-84-trillion-in-wealth-transfers-through-2045

Melania’s New NFT Collection is Waking Up the NFT Marketplace

“Proclaim Liberty” from Melania Trump’s new NFT releases ($50.00)

NFT Investments Benefit from Increased Activity

Do you remember Beeple? He’s the graphic artist who kicked off the non-fungible token (NFT) frenzy. More important than starting an NFT gold rush, the $69.3 million his piece auctioned for alerted many investors and businesspeople to other uses of tokens and blockchain technology beyond cryptocurrency. While the frenzy has simmered, the blockchain-reliant art form is still finding its place. Melania Trump, who owns an NFT company, released a freedom-themed collection in time for America’s birthday. The Ethereum based tokens will be watched closely, compared in price to previous releases, and may help rejuvenate some lost enthusiasm for NFT art.

Background

Non-fungible tokens are unique digital assets stored on a blockchain. Beyond art, NFTs can represent medical records, shipping records, music, videos, and can be adapted to most transactions that benefit from proof of something occurring. In art, the technology allows creators to monetize their digital creations and provide collectors with a method to own and invest in unique digital assets.

As with most art, value is subjective. As with any investment that is new, wild swings can be expected as a market value will be determined by the few initially involved. And these will include those that are extremely bullish and bid up prices, those that know that new thinly traded markets can be elevated by hype, and those that serve as the opposite of hype, they are openly negative on anything new or different. NFTs are no different – for example, nothing has yet openly sold for as much as Beeple’s piece.

Melania’s Place in the NFT Market

In December 2021, Melania Trump, less than one year out of the White House as First Lady, began her own NFT art provider. The themes have been beauty and patriotism and have been popular among collectors. However, since then, the prices of pieces sold and then resold have fluctuated widely in a market that has lost the world’s attention, and is far from maturity.

The Current NFT Release

Some say Melania Knavs, born in communist Slovenia, has gotten to live “the American Dream,” and can appreciate it more than most. Others say Melania Trump understands how capitalism works and is using it to make a buck off of her famous name. As it relates to NFTs, investors should probably focus most on the truth that Melania has brought attention back to this market and investors in NFTs themselves, or the blockchain technology that supports it, benefit. After all, anytime there is an increase of buyers and sellers in a marketplace, liquidity rises, and prices become more rational.

One week before USA Independence Day on July 4, the former first lady announced she is selling “The 1776 Collection,” a tranche of three thousand digital tokens priced at $50 each. Investors are asked to use their digital wallets or more traditional methods, including a credit card, to purchase digital creations.

Image: On December 16, 2021, @MELANIATRUMP tweeted this announcement.

Previous releases included the “Trump Digital Trading Cards” collection, which featured cartoonish images of the former president in unlikely scenarios, like standing on the moon. Her first edition of her collection generated more than 14,200 ETH ($26.3 million) in trading activity so far in 2023. The second edition has generated about $2.7 million over the same period.

NFT Investor’s Dream

The presence of high profile people are good for the maturation of the NFT market, and Melania Trump’s name certainly has been attached to NFT art. At the release of her third and latest collection, her June 29 announcement proclaimed it gives “collectors the ability to celebrate our nation’s independence while acknowledging America’s Founding Fathers’ vision of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.” The announcement explained that “Each collectible represents an aspect of Americana and was deliberately designed to acknowledge the foundations of American ideals.”

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Exceeding the “Speed Limit” of Semiconductor-Based Transistors

The author’s lab’s ultrafast optical switch in action. Mohammed Hassan, University of Arizona, CC BY-ND

The Digital Future May Rely on Ultrafast Optical Electronics and Computers

If you’ve ever wished for a faster phone, computer or internet connection, you’ve encountered the personal experience of hitting a limit of technology. But there might be help on the way.

Over the past several decades, scientists and engineers have worked to develop faster transistors, the electronic components underlying modern electronic and digital communications technologies. These efforts have been based on a category of materials called semiconductors that have special electrical properties. Silicon is perhaps the best-known example of this type of material.

But about a decade ago, scientific efforts hit the speed limit of semiconductor-based transistors. Researchers simply can’t make electrons move faster through these materials. One way engineers are trying to address the speed limits inherent in moving a current through silicon is to design shorter physical circuits – essentially giving electrons less distance to travel. Increasing the computing power of a chip comes down to increasing the number of transistors. However, even if researchers are able to get transistors to be very small, they won’t be fast enough for the faster processing and data transfer speeds people and businesses will need.

This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of Mohammed Hassan, Associate Professor of Physics and Optical Sciences, University of Arizona.

My research group’s work aims to develop faster ways to move data, using ultrafast laser pulses in free space and optical fiber. The laser light travels through optical fiber with almost no loss and with a very low level of noise.

In our most recent study, published in February 2023 in Science Advances, we took a step toward that, demonstrating that it’s possible to use laser-based systems equipped with optical transistors, which depend on photons rather than voltage to move electrons, and to transfer information much more quickly than current systems – and do so more effectively than previously reported optical switches.

Ultrafast Optical Transistors

At their most fundamental level, digital transmissions involve a signal switching on and off to represent ones and zeros. Electronic transistors use voltage to send this signal: When the voltage induces the electrons to flow through the system, they signal a 1; when there are no electrons flowing, that signals a 0. This requires a source to emit the electrons and a receiver to detect them.

Our system of ultrafast optical data transmission is based on light rather than voltage. Our research group is one of many working with optical communication at the transistor level – the building blocks of modern processors – to get around the current limitations with silicon.

Our system controls reflected light to transmit information. When light shines on a piece of glass, most of it passes through, though a little bit might reflect. That is what you experience as glare when driving toward sunlight or looking through a window.

We use two laser beams transmitted from two sources passing through the same piece of glass. One beam is constant, but its transmission through the glass is controlled by the second beam. By using the second beam to shift the properties of the glass from transparent to reflective, we can start and stop the transmission of the constant beam, switching the optical signal from on to off and back again very quickly.

With this method, we can switch the glass properties much more quickly than current systems can send electrons. So we can send many more on and off signals – zeros and ones – in less time.

The author’s research group has developed a way to switch light beams on and off, like those passing through these optical fibers, 1 million billion times a second.

How Fast are We Talking?

Our study took the first step to transmitting data 1 million times faster than if we had used the typical electronics. With electrons, the maximum speed for transmitting data is a nanosecond, one-billionth of a second, which is very fast. But the optical switch we constructed was able to transmit data a million times faster, which took just a few hundred attoseconds.

We were also able to transmit those signals securely so that an attacker who tried to intercept or modify the messages would fail or be detected.

Using a laser beam to carry a signal, and adjusting its signal intensity with glass controlled by another laser beam, means the information can travel not only more quickly but also much greater distances.

For instance, the James Webb Space Telescope recently transmitted stunning images from far out in space. These pictures were transferred as data from the telescope to the base station on Earth at a rate of one “on” or “off” every 35 nanosconds using optical communications.

A laser system like the one we’re developing could speed up the transfer rate a billionfold, allowing faster and clearer exploration of deep space, more quickly revealing the universe’s secrets. And someday computers themselves might run on light.

Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL) – Investor Day


Monday, June 26, 2023

Comtech Telecommunications Corp. engages in the design, development, production, and marketing of products, systems, and services for advanced communications solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Telecommunications Transmission, Mobile Data Communications, and RF Microwave Amplifiers. The Telecommunications Transmission segment provides satellite earth station equipment and systems, over-the-horizon microwave systems, and forward error correction technology, which are used in various commercial and government applications, including backhaul of wireless and cellular traffic, broadcasting (including HDTV), IP-based communications traffic, long distance telephony, and secure defense applications. The Mobile Data Communications segment provides mobile satellite transceivers, and computers and satellite earth station network gateways and associated installation, training, and maintenance services; supplies and operates satellite packet data networks, including arranging and providing satellite capacity; and offers microsatellites and related components. The RF Microwave Amplifiers segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets satellite earth station traveling wave tube amplifiers (TWTA) and broadband amplifiers. Its amplifiers are used in broadcast and broadband satellite communication; defense applications, such as telecommunications systems and electronic warfare systems; and commercial applications comprising oncology treatment systems, as well as to amplify signals carrying voice, video, or data for air-to-satellite-to-ground communications. The company serves satellite systems integrators, wireless and other communication service providers, broadcasters, defense contractors, military, governments, and oil companies. Comtech markets its products through independent representatives and value-added resellers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Investor Day. We attended Comtech’s Investor Day at the new Chandler, AZ facility. We came away impressed not only with Ken Peterman’s vision, but also the management team he has assembled and the vast potential for Comtech as Mr. Peterman’s vision is implemented.

Highlights. While we previously have written about the key takeaways of the Investor Day, we reiterate the points here: the Company’s transformation into One Comtech is ahead of schedule, implementation of lean operating and growth initiatives has begun, EVOKE partnerships open up whole new opportunities, and the transition into a higher margin, faster growing software, solutions, services, and insights business is forthcoming.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Could Bidenomics Better Build Your Portfolio?

Image: WH.goc

Should You Invest Alongside Washington?

The White House, on Monday, June 26, launched an effort to refresh and even rebrand the administration’s economic policies. “Bidenomics” is the latest name given to the White House initiatives to invest in the country’s future. The unveiling of the latest spending plans includes $42.5 billion that will be spread to benefit all 50 states.

While the largest details of what Bidenomics is expected to entail will be presented in Chicago on Wednesday, some of the plans were unveiled on Monday. Spokespeople, including President Biden and Vice President Harris, laid out an “internet for all” plan in a public address.

The plan is to spend, on average, $750 million in each state in a bidding process for high-speed internet projects where there is none.

The overall thinking is that internet availability is viewed as a utility, much like the electrification of all communities.  

President Biden indicated Made in America would be integral to the plan. Pointing out thousands of miles of fiber optic cable will be built and laid as part of the project.

Other investment areas that may see added demand is commodities such as copper. The metal is a key element in cables, routers, and switches. As a result, the demand for copper could be expected increase as more and more people connect to the internet.

Fiber optic cables were specifically mentioned in the announcement; manufacturers of not just the cable, but connections, and companies that install the cable could potentially benefit from the $42.5 billion being spread, for coast-to-coast high-speed internet.

While the project is to be completed over the next six years, for each new household or business that gains internet access along the way, a potential new customer for many types of businesses goes online. Beneficiaries could include telecommunications, media, education, online retail, and of course big tech. As the internet has more steady users, these industries will all see increased demand for their services.

Take Away

Investing in companies that benefit from changes in government policies or spending is a common strategy that has helped many portfolios.

A big announcement on what to expect from the new Bidenomics was made on June 26; the country is promised an even greater announcement on June 28. Investors should note, the government does not build out these projects themselves; it engages private companies. At times the US government quickly becomes a large customer of these companies’, adding stability of revenue and significant profit to bottom lines. The President promised a Made in America approach to the contract process.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

What Can We Expect to Find On the Path to AI    

Image credit: The Pug Father (Flickr)

How Will AI Affect Workers? Tech Waves of the Past Show How Unpredictable the Path Can Be

The explosion of interest in artificial intelligence has drawn attention not only to the astonishing capacity of algorithms to mimic humans but to the reality that these algorithms could displace many humans in their jobs. The economic and societal consequences could be nothing short of dramatic.

The route to this economic transformation is through the workplace. A widely circulated Goldman Sachs study anticipates that about two-thirds of current occupations over the next decade could be affected and a quarter to a half of the work people do now could be taken over by an algorithm. Up to 300 million jobs worldwide could be affected. The consulting firm McKinsey released its own study predicting an AI-powered boost of US$4.4 trillion to the global economy every year.

The implications of such gigantic numbers are sobering, but how reliable are these predictions?

This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of Bhaskar Chakravorti, Dean of Global Business, The Fletcher School, Tufts University.

I lead a research program called Digital Planet that studies the impact of digital technologies on lives and livelihoods around the world and how this impact changes over time. A look at how previous waves of such digital technologies as personal computers and the internet affected workers offers some insight into AI’s potential impact in the years to come. But if the history of the future of work is any guide, we should be prepared for some surprises.

The IT Revolution and the Productivity Paradox

A key metric for tracking the consequences of technology on the economy is growth in worker productivity – defined as how much output of work an employee can generate per hour. This seemingly dry statistic matters to every working individual, because it ties directly to how much a worker can expect to earn for every hour of work. Said another way, higher productivity is expected to lead to higher wages.

Generative AI products are capable of producing written, graphic and audio content or software programs with minimal human involvement. Professions such as advertising, entertainment and creative and analytical work could be among the first to feel the effects. Individuals in those fields may worry that companies will use generative AI to do jobs they once did, but economists see great potential to boost productivity of the workforce as a whole.

The Goldman Sachs study predicts productivity will grow by 1.5% per year because of the adoption of generative AI alone, which would be nearly double the rate from 2010 and 2018. McKinsey is even more aggressive, saying this technology and other forms of automation will usher in the “next productivity frontier,” pushing it as high as 3.3% a year by 2040.That sort of productivity boost, which would approach rates of previous years, would be welcomed by both economists and, in theory, workers as well.

If we were to trace the 20th-century history of productivity growth in the U.S., it galloped along at about 3% annually from 1920 to 1970, lifting real wages and living standards. Interestingly, productivity growth slowed in the 1970s and 1980s, coinciding with the introduction of computers and early digital technologies. This “productivity paradox” was famously captured in a comment from MIT economist Bob Solow: You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.

Digital technology skeptics blamed “unproductive” time spent on social media or shopping and argued that earlier transformations, such as the introductions of electricity or the internal combustion engine, had a bigger role in fundamentally altering the nature of work. Techno-optimists disagreed; they argued that new digital technologies needed time to translate into productivity growth, because other complementary changes would need to evolve in parallel. Yet others worried that productivity measures were not adequate in capturing the value of computers.

For a while, it seemed that the optimists would be vindicated. In the second half of the 1990s, around the time the World Wide Web emerged, productivity growth in the U.S. doubled, from 1.5% per year in the first half of that decade to 3% in the second. Again, there were disagreements about what was really going on, further muddying the waters as to whether the paradox had been resolved. Some argued that, indeed, the investments in digital technologies were finally paying off, while an alternative view was that managerial and technological innovations in a few key industries were the main drivers.

Regardless of the explanation, just as mysteriously as it began, that late 1990s surge was short-lived. So despite massive corporate investment in computers and the internet – changes that transformed the workplace – how much the economy and workers’ wages benefited from technology remained uncertain.

Early 2000s: New Slump, New Hype, New Hopes

While the start of the 21st century coincided with the bursting of the so-called dot-com bubble, the year 2007 was marked by the arrival of another technology revolution: the Apple iPhone, which consumers bought by the millions and which companies deployed in countless ways. Yet labor productivity growth started stalling again in the mid-2000s, ticking up briefly in 2009 during the Great Recession, only to return to a slump from 2010 to 2019.

Smartphones have led to millions of apps and consumer services but have also kept many workers more closely tethered to their workplaces. (Credit: Campaigns of the World)

Throughout this new slump, techno-optimists were anticipating new winds of change. AI and automation were becoming all the rage and were expected to transform work and worker productivity. Beyond traditional industrial automation, drones and advanced robots, capital and talent were pouring into many would-be game-changing technologies, including autonomous vehicles, automated checkouts in grocery stores and even pizza-making robots. AI and automation were projected to push productivity growth above 2% annually in a decade, up from the 2010-2014 lows of 0.4%.But before we could get there and gauge how these new technologies would ripple through the workplace, a new surprise hit: the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Pandemic Productivity Push – then Bust

Devastating as the pandemic was, worker productivity surged after it began in 2020; output per hour worked globally hit 4.9%, the highest recorded since data has been available.

Much of this steep rise was facilitated by technology: larger knowledge-intensive companies – inherently the more productive ones – switched to remote work, maintaining continuity through digital technologies such as videoconferencing and communications technologies such as Slack, and saving on commuting time and focusing on well-being.

While it was clear digital technologies helped boost productivity of knowledge workers, there was an accelerated shift to greater automation in many other sectors, as workers had to remain home for their own safety and comply with lockdowns. Companies in industries ranging from meat processing to operations in restaurants, retail and hospitality invested in automation, such as robots and automated order-processing and customer service, which helped boost their productivity.

But then there was yet another turn in the journey along the technology landscape.

The 2020-2021 surge in investments in the tech sector collapsed, as did the hype about autonomous vehicles and pizza-making robots. Other frothy promises, such as the metaverse’s revolutionizing remote work or training, also seemed to fade into the background.

In parallel, with little warning, “generative AI” burst onto the scene, with an even more direct potential to enhance productivity while affecting jobs – at massive scale. The hype cycle around new technology restarted.

Looking Ahead: Social Factors on Technology’s Arc

Given the number of plot twists thus far, what might we expect from here on out? Here are four issues for consideration.

First, the future of work is about more than just raw numbers of workers, the technical tools they use or the work they do; one should consider how AI affects factors such as workplace diversity and social inequities, which in turn have a profound impact on economic opportunity and workplace culture.

For example, while the broad shift toward remote work could help promote diversity with more flexible hiring, I see the increasing use of AI as likely to have the opposite effect. Black and Hispanic workers are overrepresented in the 30 occupations with the highest exposure to automation and underrepresented in the 30 occupations with the lowest exposure. While AI might help workers get more done in less time, and this increased productivity could increase wages of those employed, it could lead to a severe loss of wages for those whose jobs are displaced. A 2021 paper found that wage inequality tended to increase the most in countries in which companies already relied a lot on robots and that were quick to adopt the latest robotic technologies.

Second, as the post-COVID-19 workplace seeks a balance between in-person and remote working, the effects on productivity – and opinions on the subject – will remain uncertain and fluid. A 2022 study showed improved efficiencies for remote work as companies and employees grew more comfortable with work-from-home arrangements, but according to a separate 2023 study, managers and employees disagree about the impact: The former believe that remote working reduces productivity, while employees believe the opposite.

Third, society’s reaction to the spread of generative AI could greatly affect its course and ultimate impact. Analyses suggest that generative AI can boost worker productivity on specific jobs – for example, one 2023 study found the staggered introduction of a generative AI-based conversational assistant increased productivity of customer service personnel by 14%. Yet there are already growing calls to consider generative AI’s most severe risks and to take them seriously. On top of that, recognition of the astronomical computing and environmental costs of generative AI could limit its development and use.

Finally, given how wrong economists and other experts have been in the past, it is safe to say that many of today’s predictions about AI technology’s impact on work and worker productivity will prove to be wrong as well. Numbers such as 300 million jobs affected or $4.4 trillion annual boosts to the global economy are eye-catching, yet I think people tend to give them greater credibility than warranted.

Also, “jobs affected” does not mean jobs lost; it could mean jobs augmented or even a transition to new jobs. It is best to use the analyses, such as Goldman’s or McKinsey’s, to spark our imaginations about the plausible scenarios about the future of work and of workers. It’s better, in my view, to then proactively brainstorm the many factors that could affect which one actually comes to pass, look for early warning signs and prepare accordingly.

The history of the future of work has been full of surprises; don’t be shocked if tomorrow’s technologies are equally confounding.