Research – ACCO Brands (ACCO) – Post 3Q19 Conference Call Notes

Thursday, October 31, 2019

ACCO Brands Corporation (ACCO)

Post 3Q19 Conference Call Notes

ACCO Brands Corporation designs, manufactures, sources, markets, and sells office products, academic supplies, and calendar products primarily in the United States, Canada, Northern Europe, Brazil, Australia, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: ACCO Brands North America, ACCO Brands EMEA, and ACCO Brands International. The company offers office products, such as stapling, binding and laminating equipment, and related consumable supplies, as well as shredders and whiteboards; and academic products, including notebooks, folders, decorative calendars, and stationery products. It also provides private label products, as well as business machine maintenance and repair services. The company offers its business, academic, and calendar product lines under the Artline, AT-A-GLANCE, Derwent, Esselte, Five Star, GBC, Hilroy, Leitz, Marbig, Mead, NOBO, Quartet, Rapid, Rexel, Swingline, Tilibra, Wilson Jones, and other brand names. In addition, it designs, sources, distributes, markets, and sells accessories for laptop and desktop computers, and tablets comprising security products; input devices, such as presenters, mice, and trackballs; ergonomic aids, including foot and wrist rests; docking stations; and other personal computers and tablet accessories under the Kensington, Microsaver, and ClickSafe brand names. The company sells its products to consumers and commercial end-users primarily through resellers, including traditional office supply resellers, wholesalers, mass merchandisers, and retailers, as well as directly to consumers through on-line and direct mail. ACCO Brands Corporation is headquartered in Lake Zurich, Illinois.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • North America a Surprising Engine.  With comp sales up 3.5% in the quarter, following an 8.9% 2Q19 comp increase, the North American business has been a surprising engine this year. If the North American business can continue to post positive comp sales increases, it will bode well for the Company’s future.
  • EMEA and International Still Lagging.  Both EMEA and International have posted somewhat disappointing results in the first three quarters of the year, with only one positive quarterly comp sales increase this year between both segments. We believe…


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*Analyst
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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Research – ACCO Brands (ACCO) – Record 3Q19 Cash Flow; But Top and Bottom Lines Weaker than Expected

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

ACCO Brands Corporation (ACCO)

Record 3Q19 Cash Flow; But Top and Bottom Lines Weaker than Expected

ACCO Brands Corporation designs, manufactures, sources, markets, and sells office products, academic supplies, and calendar products primarily in the United States, Canada, Northern Europe, Brazil, Australia, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: ACCO Brands North America, ACCO Brands EMEA, and ACCO Brands International. The company offers office products, such as stapling, binding and laminating equipment, and related consumable supplies, as well as shredders and whiteboards; and academic products, including notebooks, folders, decorative calendars, and stationery products. It also provides private label products, as well as business machine maintenance and repair services. The company offers its business, academic, and calendar product lines under the Artline, AT-A-GLANCE, Derwent, Esselte, Five Star, GBC, Hilroy, Leitz, Marbig, Mead, NOBO, Quartet, Rapid, Rexel, Swingline, Tilibra, Wilson Jones, and other brand names. In addition, it designs, sources, distributes, markets, and sells accessories for laptop and desktop computers, and tablets comprising security products; input devices, such as presenters, mice, and trackballs; ergonomic aids, including foot and wrist rests; docking stations; and other personal computers and tablet accessories under the Kensington, Microsaver, and ClickSafe brand names. The company sells its products to consumers and commercial end-users primarily through resellers, including traditional office supply resellers, wholesalers, mass merchandisers, and retailers, as well as directly to consumers through on-line and direct mail. ACCO Brands Corporation is headquartered in Lake Zurich, Illinois.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Record Cash Flows.   ACCO generated a record $190.8 million of CFFO and $183.4 million of free cash flow in the quarter. The performance sets the Company up to hit its full year FCF goal of $165-$175 million. ACCO repaid $174 million of seasonal borrowings during the quarter, used $16.0 million, net, for share repurchases, paid $5.9 million of dividends, and used $42 million of cash for the Foroni acquisition.
  • Top and Bottom Line Miss.  Revenue came in at $505.7 million, flat with last year, but below consensus $513 million and our $525 million estimate. EPS was $0.28, versus $0.34 in 3Q18, short of…


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This Company Sponored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Everything from A-to-Z: There are Consumer Cyclical Stocks for Everyone

Everything from A-to-Z: There are Consumer Cyclical Stocks for Everyone

The consumer cyclical sector includes a broad range of companies all the way from automotive to travel and leisure. Their stocks’ performance relies on the business cycle and the current economic state. When the economy is strong and consumers have a larger disposable income, spending in these industries increases and the performance reflects in the stock price. On the other hand, when the economy contracts and consumers have less disposable income, spending on entertainment and luxuries shrinks. Remember also that company performance depends on the niche that it fills; smallcap companies in this sector are affected by the same economic conditions and business cycles as largecaps. Regarding investing, many internal and external factors must be considered when selecting the right companies for your portfolio.

Can consumers positively impact the current economic outlook?

Can consumers positively impact the current economic outlook?

(Note: companies that could be impacted by the content of this article are listed at the base of the story (desktop version). This article uses third-party references to provide a bullish, bearish and balanced point of view; sources listed in the “Balanced” section) 

In the month of July, consumer retail purchases in the U.S. escalated even though larger scale purchases, like motor vehicles, declined. This positive trending data may shed a little light on the current market as fears of a global recession rise. Amazon Prime Day and other competitive sales may have been a contributing factor to this growth. This increased consumer spending shows faith in the economy, which is an encouraging sign that will hopefully continue.

Research – ACCO Brands (ACCO) – New $100 Million Share Repurchase Authorization Continues Capital Return Theme

Thursday, August 8, 2019

ACCO Brands (ACCO)

New $100 Million Share Repurchase Authorization Continues Capital Return Theme

ACCO Brands Corporation designs, manufactures, sources, markets, and sells office products, academic supplies, and calendar products primarily in the United States, Canada, Northern Europe, Brazil, Australia, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: ACCO Brands North America, ACCO Brands EMEA, and ACCO Brands International.

Joe Gomes, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Added Buyback Authorization. Yesterday, ACCO announced its Board had approved an authorization to repurchase up to an additional $100 million of common stock, increasing the combined authorization to $169.6 million, or roughly 18% of the outstanding market capitalization. The announcement continues a return of capital trend at ACCO.
  • Past Activity. Since the original October 2015 $100 million authorization and $100 million addition in February 2018, ACCO’s share repurchases have unfolded as follows…




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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Research – 1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS) – The Latest Acquisition Is The Berries

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS)

The Latest Acquisition Is The Berries

1-800 Flowers.com Inc is a United-States-based provider of gourmet food & gift baskets, consumer floral, and BloomNet wire service. Gourmet food & gift baskets and consumer floral jointly account for the majority of the company’s total revenue. The company provides a broad range of merchandise, including fresh flowers, premium, fruits, popcorn, specialty treats, cookies and baked gifts, premium chocolates, confectionery, gift baskets, premium English muffins, steaks and chops, and others.

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • A sweet deal. The company announced that it plans to purchase Shari’s Berries out of the FTD bankruptcy for $20.5 million. The deal is expected to close by the end of August 2019. We view the tuck-in acquisition favorably given the strong brand, its leadership position in the category, and as a complement to the company’s gourmet product offerings.
  • The price is right. Shari’s Berries is estimated to generate roughly $100 million in revenue, but has been largely unprofitable. In our view, the purchase price of $20.5 million is attractive given that the company will….



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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Research – ACCO Brands (ACCO) – What Will New Acquisition Mean?

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

ACCO Brands (ACCO)

What Will New Acquisition Mean?

ACCO Brands Corporation designs, manufactures, sources, markets, and sells office products, academic supplies, and calendar products primarily in the United States, Canada, Northern Europe, Brazil, Australia, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: ACCO Brands North America, ACCO Brands EMEA, and ACCO Brands International.

Joe Gomes, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Acquires Industria Grafica Foroni. Yesterday, ACCO announced the acquisition of Industria Grafica Foroni Ltda. (Foroni), a leading provider of notebooks and paper-based school and office products in Brazil. For nearly 100 years, Foroni has manufactured and marketed a broad portfolio of market-leading school and office supply products.
  • Deal Terms. ACCO paid $57 million in cash for the purchase. The deal was funded with cash and debt. The estimated full year incremental sales contribution to ACCO is…



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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Research – ACCO Brands (ACCO) – A Deeper Dive Into Record 2Q19 Results

Thursday, August 1, 2019

ACCO Brands (ACCO)

A Deeper Dive Into Record 2Q19 Results

ACCO Brands Corporation designs, manufactures, sources, markets, and sells office products, academic supplies, and calendar products primarily in the United States, Canada, Northern Europe, Brazil, Australia, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: ACCO Brands North America, ACCO Brands EMEA, and ACCO Brands International.

Joe Gomes, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Upbeat on North America. Management expects the North America segment to now be closer to flat y-o-y on a revenue basis, compared to a prior negative up to 2%. Combined with cost savings initiatives and pricing increases, North America should be the growth engine for the remainder of the year.
  • EMEA Should Rebound, International Mixed. The EMEA segment should show improvement from the challenged 2Q over the rest of the year, although…



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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Research – ACCO Brands (ACCO) – Record 2Q Results; What’s In-store for the Rest of the Year?

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

ACCO Brands (ACCO)

Record 2Q Results; What’s In-store for the Rest of the Year?

ACCO Brands Corporation designs, manufactures, sources, markets, and sells office products, academic supplies, and calendar products primarily in the United States, Canada, Northern Europe, Brazil, Australia, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: ACCO Brands North America, ACCO Brands EMEA, and ACCO Brands International.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Record 2Q19 Results. ACCO Brands reported record 2Q19 operating results with revenue up 4.0% to $518.7 million and adjusted EPS of $0.36 versus $0.32 last year. We were forecasting revenue of $495 million and adjusted EPS of $0.33. A surprisingly strong North American business led the top line improvement, while tight expense controls, pricing increases to offset inflation and tariffs, and a reduced share count benefited the bottom line.
  • Strong North America. Broad sales growth across all channels in North America drove an 8.9% growth in segment revenue. Pricing and, to a lesser extent…



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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Research – ACCO Brands (ACCO) – Raising price target

Friday, May 3, 2019

ACCO Brands Corporation (ACCO)

Can ACCO Brands Maintain the Momentum?

ACCO Brands Corporation designs, manufactures, sources, markets, and sells office products, academic supplies, and calendar products primarily in the United States, Canada, Northern Europe, Brazil, Australia, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: ACCO Brands North America, ACCO Brands EMEA, and ACCO Brands International. 

 

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

  • Solid 1Q19 Results. ACCO brands reported solid 1Q19 results, exceeding our estimates. Revenue came in at $393.9 million and adjusted EPS at $0.08. We were projecting $381.5 million and $0.06, respectively.
  • EMEA and North America Drove
    Results
    . EMEA posted a 3.5% comp sales increase and slightly higher operating income, excluding adverse foreign currency. Although North American comp sales fell 2.5%, the decline was significantly less than the sec… 




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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Research – 1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS) – Fiscal 3Q19 Update

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

1-800-Flowers.com, Inc  (FLWS)

Winning Doesn’t Get Boring.

1-800 Flowers.com Inc is a United-States-based provider of gourmet food & gift baskets, consumer floral, and BloomNet wire service. Gourmet food & gift baskets and consumer floral jointly account for the majority of the company’s total revenue. The company provides a broad range of merchandise, including fresh flowers, premium, fruits, popcorn, specialty treats, cookies and baked gifts, premium chocolates, confectionery, gift baskets, premium English muffins, steaks and chops, and others.

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Solid quarter. The fiscal third quarter revenues of $248.4 million
    beat our $242.0 million estimate, while adjusted EBITDA loss of $4.4 million
    came in lower than our loss estimate of a $5.8 million loss. For a third
    straight quarter, BloomNet was strong with 15.1% revenue growth and an
    impressive 12.3% increase in adjusted EBITDA.
  • Raised guidance.  Full fiscal year 2019 revenues and adjusted EBITDA were
    guided at the high end of the previously guidance range from $1232.6 million to
    $1244.1 million and $80.0 million to $82.0 million, respec…





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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

News – End of an Era: Sears Struggles to Survive

What Is in the Future for Sears and for Retailing?

(Note: all the sources listed in the “Balanced”
section) 

Last fall was a study in contrasts
in the retailing world. Amazon (AMZN) garnered a trillion-dollar market cap in
September and Sears filed for bankruptcy protection the following month. Many
observers tied the fortunes of each company to each other.

Amazon clearly has thrived. But,
Sears problems stemmed even before Amazon, in fact, over the past five decades.
The steady decline in brand loyalty in retailing and the advent of increased
competition in big box retailing, played more significant role despite the
common perception that Amazon was the Sears’ kryptonite. Amazon was only the
latest, and possibly last, competitive threat and problem for Sears.

As the top retailer from 1950 to
1990, Sears’ past success and size made it a significant target for smaller, startup
retailers. Sears did not adjust to the competitive factors that it faced with
Walmart and Home Depot. Other missteps include: the failed diversification efforts
into financial services (Coldwell Bankers and Dean Witter), the sale of the
Discover credit card franchise, the cancellation of its mail order catalog
business and lack of transition to the internet, and the use of debt leverage.
These mistakes limited the ability to right the ship and effectively respond to
changing consumer shopping habits. Furthermore, a hedge fund manager, Eddie
Lampert, with limited retailing experience, has been in control since 2005.

Walmart’s CEO Doug McMillon said on
CNBC when Sears was on the verge of bankruptcy last October, “You see the rise
and fall of Sears and others …it’s just a reminder that this can happen to us,
too.” McMillon stated that he keeps a chart of the top 10 retailers in the US
by decade to remind him. Sears was the leader through 1990, but steadily fell
to 10 by 2010 and off the list several years ago.

Over the past decade, a merger
with Kmart and high financial leverage have forced cost cutting moves and left
many stores in a state of disrepair. Lampert also focused almost exclusively on
e-commerce and allowed the stores to atrophy. Even though an e-commerce
strategy helped stabilize same store sales, it has proven difficult to thrive
with a shrink to grow mentality. The e-commerce strategy was forward thinking
and adopted many tools, like dynamic pricing, but Sears underappreciated the
negative impact on e-commerce of a smaller store footprint and poorly
maintained stores. Ironically, Amazon moved away from a pure e-commerce
strategy with the acquisition of Whole Foods Markets in mid-2017 and is rumored
to be contemplating buying some of the former Sears and Kmart stores to expand
its “bricks” presence.

Where does Sears go
from here? Mr. Lampert, the largest shareholder, was, as expected, the lone
bidder at an auction earlier this week. Subsequently, his bid was sweetened to
more than $5.2 billion from $4.4 billion. Mr. Lampert’s bid for Sears possibly keeps
it as a “going concern.” If approved by the Bankruptcy Court, the plan would
keep up to 425 store locations open and possibly save close to 25,000 jobs. The
bid avoids a Chapter 7 liquidation that would have resulted in the sales of
real estate, inventory, intellectual property and other assets to satisfy
creditors, including suppliers. Will the plan work? Time will tell, but it
might be too late for Sears to regain the brand loyalty required to survive in
the Amazon Era.