Category: Politics

Here’s why this time is different.

(Note: companies that could be impacted by the content of this article are listed at the base of the story (desktop version). This article uses third-party references to provide a bullish, bearish and balanced point of view; sources listed in the “Balanced” section)

Oil
prices jumped as much as 4% on June 13 following attacks on two tankers near
the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. 
The source of the attack was not known. 
However, the timing and objects of the attacks (Japanese ships of
interest attacked shortly after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had met with Iran
officials) seems to point to Iran or Iranian rebels in Yemen as the likely
source.  The incident is one in a long
history of sabotage activity in the area and threats to shut down the shipping
channel.  Previous incidents eventually
faded into memory with oil prices returning to pre-existing levels.  This time may be different.

Is Trump’s Tough Talk on Mexico Tariffs Just a Publicity Stunt?

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On May 30, President Trump threatened the imposition of tariffs on Mexican imports to the United States.  President Trump announced that a 5% tariff could take effect June 10.  The tariff would increase to 10% on July 1 and increase by 5% each month until it reaches 25% on October 1, 2019.  Trump, increasingly frustrated with migrants from Central America reaching the U.S. border, wants Mexico to do more to enforce its southern border.  Given the economic stakes for both countries, it is likely that an agreement may be reached between the United States and Mexico before tariffs are imposed.  What are the pros and cons of implementing tariffs on imports from Mexico? 

Did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Reduce People’s Federal Taxes?

(Note: companies that could be impacted by the content of
this article are listed at the base of the story (desktop version). This
article uses third-party references to provide a bullish, bearish and balanced
point of view; sources listed in the “Balanced” section) 

The stories are commonplace in the news and on social media: the taxpayer who either received less of a refund in 2019 compared to what they received in 2018 or, even worse, went from receiving a refund in 2018 to having to write a check for taxes owed in 2019. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the most sweeping update to the U.S. tax code in more than 30 years. For individuals, the TCJA reduced federal income tax rates, increased the standard deduction, doubled the child care tax credit, repealed the personal and dependent exemptions, and capped the deductions for state and local taxes, among many other reforms. But, according to SurveyMonkey, only 40% of Americans believed they saw savings, and only 20% were sure they had. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll in March found just 17% of Americans believing they would pay less in taxes.

70% Rate: The Taxwoman Cometh

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In an interview on 60
Minutes, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez asserted that it’s worth considering a 70% top marginal tax rate on incomes over $10 million to help pay for new federal programs like the “Green New Deal.”  According to Representative Ocasio-Cortez, “People are going to have to start paying their fair share in taxes. As you climb this income ladder, you should be contributing more.” As one would expect, her controversial comments immediately ignited a firestorm of a debate.

Do the costs of fighting climate change outweigh the benefits?

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story and all the sources listed in the “Balanced” section)

The Green New Deal (GND) is a congressional resolution proposed by Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Democratic Senator Edward Markey.  It calls for a cut in greenhouse-gas emissions to net zero over 10 years while at the same time guaranteeing family-sustaining jobs, high-quality health care, and affordable housing.  It is supported by several prominent Democratic senators and presidential candidates such as Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, and Elizabeth Warren.  While the resolution is unlikely to pass and is legally unbinding, it does raise questions about the trade-offs between protecting the environment and supporting economic growth.

The Legalization of Sports Gambling: A Winning Bet?

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are at base of the story and all the sources listed in the “Balanced”
section)

On Monday, May 14, 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court made a monumental ruling to legalize sports gambling outside the state of Nevada, lifting the 25-year-old federal law. The rationale for this decision was to bring a multibillion-dollar industry into the forefront, allowing states to record tax revenues and encourage tourism. The decision is intended to protect consumers by increasing transparency between all parties involved. As of February 13, 2019, full-scale legalized sports betting is allowed in eight states, with bills pending in two additional states.

The American Gaming Association (AGA) estimates $150 billion is illegally wagered in the United States annually. This Supreme Court ruling presents an economic opportunity for corporations and entrepreneurs to compete for a share of this market. Assuming at least 40 states legalize sports betting, the AGA estimates the industry can generate $8 billion in local tax revenue, create thousands of new jobs, and add between $14-$20 billion to the national GDP.

The
success of the gambling enterprise is founded on the simple principle that
there will be more losers than winners. So, who will be the winners? And, who
will be the losers?

Trump versus Obama: an economic review of the Presidents’ first two years.

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companies are at base of the story and all the sources listed in the
“Balanced” section)

The first half of President Trump’s first term of office is over.  And whether or not the administration did a good job in office probably depends on one’s political persuasion.  But what do the facts say?  As you might expect, some data points favor the Trump administration and some favor the Obama administration.  This article is not meant to be a commentary on performance but simply a scorecard of key economic indicators during each president’s time in office.  Here’s a look at the two presidential economies at the midpoint of their first term.

Building the Big Beautiful Wall

(Note: all the sources
listed in the “Balanced” section)

Shortly after the presidential election, construction companies began a fierce competition to win the contract to build Trump’s “big, beautiful wall” that was promised during his presidential campaign. Out of the many competitors there were only six contractors who were selected to present prototypes to the Border Patrol for testing. Now, as the border wall controversy has forced our government into a partial shutdown these wall construction contractors wait powerlessly as the contract of a lifetime hangs in the balance.