Personal Finance Archives - Page 4 of 5

Does it Make Sense to Invest New IRA Deposits in a Confusing Market?

Posted on March 31, 2023March 31, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

With New Money Deposited Into Their IRA Accounts, Savers Are Faced With an Age-Old Question

With days until the IRS is expecting our tax filings, IRA season is in full swing. With this comes contributions to IRA accounts and individual investment decisions. This year economic uncertainty is a regular topic of conversation; the question has come up in both personal and professional conversations whether or not this money should be invested immediately or wait for a clearer sign of economic and market direction. I asked three financial professionals, each of whose opinion I respect. Did I get three different answers? You be the judge.

Robert R. Johnson, PhD, CFA, CAIA, is the former deputy CEO of the CFA Institute and was President of the College of Financial Services. Currently Dr. Johnson is a Professor of Finance, Heider College of Business at Creighton University. His credentials also include co-author of The Tools and Techniques of Investment Planning, Strategic Value Investing, Investment Banking for Dummies, and others. Overall, his response argues for not shying away from what traditionally has been better-performing investments over time.

He highlighted that investing for as long as possible should involve not waiting until a week before the tax date and making a maximum deposit. If your money is sitting in cash rather than invested, there is a cash performance drag as cash including money markets, more often than not, is a worse performer than equities.

The finance professor pointed out the statistical truth that holding significant amounts of cash ensures that one will suffer significant opportunity losses. Johnson says, “when it comes to building wealth, one can either sleep well or eat well.” He explains, “investing conservatively allows one to sleep well, as there isn’t much volatility. But, it doesn’t allow you to eat well in the long run because your account won’t grow much.”

He backs this up with data compiled by Ibbotson Associates data on large capitalization stocks (think S&P 500), which returned 10.1% compounded annually from 1926-2022. Johnson points out that during the same years, government bonds returned 5.2% annually and T-bills returned 3.2% annually. He explained, “to put it in perspective, $1.00 in invested in the S&P 500 at the start of 1926 would have grown to $11,307.59 (with all dividends reinvested).” He then compared, “that same dollar invested in T-bills would have grown to $21.23.”

What to invest in is certainly an important decision, Dr. Johnson explained, “The surest way to build wealth over long time horizons is to invest in a diversified portfolio of common stocks. Someone with a long time horizon should not have exposure to money market instruments, yet many investors do because they fear the volatility of the stock market.”

Dennie Ceelen, CFP has been part of the Noble Capital Markets Private Client Group in Boca Raton, FL since 2002. He provides wealth management services to NOBLE Clients. He’s also a committee member of The Society of Financial Service Professionals.

When asked if one should invest or wait, he apologetically answered, “it depends.”

Mr. Ceelen explains that when it comes to investments, one size does not fit all. A nineteen-year-old with little or no table income and only an extra $1,000 to put away may be better off investing in education or a car to get them to work. This idea of no IRA deposit at all could even be true of a couple saving to buy their first home. If putting the maximum away for retirement, 40 years away, prevents the purchase of a home in the next year or two, it may not make sense to fund an IRA at all for them this tax year.

For those that are regularly funding an IRA he said, “if your timeline is 30-years until you retire, invest immediately.” Ceelen explained, the general rule of thumb is that the markets over time will go up, the market will be higher in 30 years,” is the expectation based on past experience.

While talking about those with far less than 30-years until retirement, he pulled out a simple spreadsheet that shows that markets don’t always go up. A screenshot of this spreadsheet of major index performance from the close of business the last day of 2021 until March 29, 2023 is provided below.

*After 15-months of market downturn, history suggests the losses are temporary*

Dennie Ceelen used the spreadsheet to show why he said “it depends.” He said, “if you are retiring in the next two years, make the contribution, take advantage of the tax break but let it sit in cash, or take advantage of the high rates on money markets/short term CD’s.”

“There is no reason to partake in this volatile market if you are that close to retirement,” he cautioned for those close to retirement. Making decisions like this is why many hire financial professionals.

David M. Wright, CLU, ChFC, president and owner of Wright Financial Group, with offices in Ohio and Florida is a 36-year veteran in the financial services industry. He hosts a local radio show called Retirement Income Source with David Wright, and is a frequent guest on TD Ameritrade Insights. One of Mr. Wright’s focuses is on providing workable retirement solutions for those in or close to retirement. His upcoming book, Bonfire of the Sanities: Reset Your Retirement Portfolio for Today’s Financial Lunacy, will be available later this year.

“How you invest your IRA for the 2022-23 tax season has been and always will be a function of your time horizon and propensity for risk,” Wright was quick to point out.

Wright’s explanation as to whether the timing is right also included what he believes would be the more suitable investment. He offered, “for individuals who are more than 10-15 years away from needing to access their cash, choosing high quality, dividend-paying companies with good cash flow are probably the best bet right now, given the economic tightening that will certainly impact more highly leveraged companies that have to refinance their debt in the future.” He cautioned that those in the age category above, “growth stocks, in particular those that pay very small dividends will probably be the most impacted by the Federal Reserve’s mandate to fight inflation by raising rates.”

For those even closer to retirement, five to ten years, he said that a dollar-cost averaging strategy to more slowly enter the market is more prudent, “you are systematically buying into the market without worrying about the purchase price of the investment itself,” Wright said.

“For those individuals that are within five years or less of retirement, pushing the pause button and purchasing short duration treasuries probably makes the most sense right now due to the higher yields offered courtesy of the Federal Reserve – with 3 month yields 4.8% at the moment,” David Wright explained for those with less time before needing the account for living expenses.

Wright added one more note of advice for the current tax season, “with the mixed signals of financial news from bank failures to reducing inflation, it probably makes sense to be more cautious right now until the financial storms subside.”

Take Away

There are many right ways to do anything. Multiply that by the different stages of life, and then there are many more. If you are making a last-minute 2022 tax year IRA deposit, hopefully, there are words of wisdom among these three professionals that have been useful.

Overall it seems time in the market is expected to outperform time out of the market, with the caveat, over the short term, anything can happen.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

The Original Driver of Inflation has Sailed

Posted on March 7, 2023March 7, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

The Supply Chain Part of Inflation Can be Declared Dead, Now What?

New data shows the supply chain is no longer putting meaningful pressure on inflation — will rising prices finally sail off and stay there?

Historically, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) is now on the low side. In fact, for the monthly period ending February 28, it’s below its 25-year average. What’s more, is this is the first time the GSCPI has released a below-average reading of supply chain pressure since August of 2019.

This is significant as the supply-chain issues related to the pandemic, would seem to be transitory and are now no longer the issue. From March 2020 until this more recent report, consumers with easier money available, including stimulus checks, drove demand higher for goods. The suddenness of the onslaught of demand for goods caught the modern world’s “just-in-time” inventory management systems off guard. To make that situation much worse, lockdown policies slowed global production, and shipping and transport became entrenched in gridlock due to undermanned loading docks all under some level of new pandemic processes designed for health and safety.

Inflation climbed as the price of shipping was bid up substantially, and shortages of products on shelves caused retailers to lessen demand by hiking prices. Some products, particularly new and used cars, experienced sharp price increases as supply chain-related shortages on automotive components such as computer chips and other parts became difficult to obtain.

Will Inflation Finally Recede?

An 18-month-long period of rampant inflation in goods, including vehicles, electronics, food, and sporting goods, (including bicycles for both indoor and outdoor use became unavailable) began to decompress starting in early 2022. The supply chains had slowly worked through the main causes.

Around this same period in 2022, inflation pressures began to build in services. As price hikes for goods lessened or backtracked, the cost for services, including wages, shot up. This is still fueling inflation today.

Often, the fear or expectation of rising prices drives inflation and vice versa. This may be the reason Fed Chairman Powell used the description “transitory” long past the period that it was obvious that inflation was likely persistent. If the Chair of the US Central Bank had suggested back then that we had a long-term problem, the worst of it may have arrived faster and been worse. Conversely, now that higher-than-target inflation is here, it makes sense for Powell to speak more hawkishly, this helps alter expectations of ongoing high rates of inflation.

With inflation primarily coming from services, the medicine for reducing the demand for human services is lessen demand, or even more difficult, increase the labor force. This is a bitter pill for the economy and creates an issue with the Federal Reserve which has two mandates, one to keep inflation modest and the other to maximize employment.

Take Away

The GSCPI is an indicator that the goods-based part of the economy has normalized. Inflation is still raging in services, which are barely tied to services. The hope is that the Fed can reduce the demand for higher and higher wages or perhaps bring more capable workers into the workforce. Another part of this plan may have nothing to do with tightening credit conditions. Talking publicly about being resolved to squash inflation also has an impact on expectations which will reduce the prices charged for service.

The initial battle, the one that kicked off the price hikes (supply chain), has ended, now we have to see how the rest of the Fed’s fight against inflation, both in policy and psychologically, plays out.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.house.mi.gov/hfa/PDF/RevenueForecast/NewYorkFed_Global_Supply_Chain_Pressure_Index_Jan2023.pdf

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/overview

Choosing Investments While Government Spending Levels Grow

Posted on February 17, 2023February 17, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

The US Budget Office Just Laid Out its Ten-Year Forecast – What Investors Should Know

The US National Debt Clock app might be useful for those that suffer from low blood pressure. I’m being facetious – the app and website provide a visual of the current estimated overall national debt. It breaks out what each citizen’s theoretical share is, and then divides it up in dozens f other categories. The clock is an estimate of real-time. For a future projection, the better place to turn is the just-released forecast from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The CBO’s website can be insightful and idea-provoking for investors as it includes a 10-year forecast for government spending, which is broken down by industry type.

Source: USdebtclock.org (February 17, 2023)

Direction of Overall US Debt

The US is on track to accumulate more than $19 trillion in additional debt over the next decade, according to a CBO document released on February 15.

This new expectation is $3 trillion more than previously forecast. Coming at a time when there is headbutting and chest pounding going on in Washington surrounding the debt ceiling (US Treasury borrowing cap), the significantly larger 10-year budget may additionally stress the governments ability to pay its bills. Phillip Swagel, a director at the CBO expressed his concern saying, “The warning is that the fiscal trajectory is unsustainable.”

The federal government is expected to collect $65 trillion in revenue over the next ten years. More than half is expected to come from individual income taxes, and another third comes from payroll taxes. Individually, we can’t change what may be higher taxes, or a weakened government financial situation, which, separate from the Federal Reserve, puts upward pressure on interest rate levels.

Drilling down deeper into where the funding is expected to flow from, individual income taxes are planned to remain level through 2025, then ramp up at a pace quicker than payroll taxes and corporate taxes.

But the country will spend much more than what it collects. Rising interest payments, large federal stimulus bills, and the growing costs of Social Security and Medicare benefits for retiring baby boomers are some of the government’s largest spending items.

Source: CBO (Data excludes offsetting receipts)

Of the Federal agencies budgeted to spend the highest amount, health and human services top the list. Small percentage increases are a lot in actual dollar amounts when trillions are involved. Social Security is the agency consuming the second most amount, followed by the Treasury, which is experiencing growing interest expenses.

Looking at a broader swath of areas that should benefit as a result of government budget expansion, we see in the graph above the top three areas already mentioned, followed by at least a trillion spent over ten years in defense, veterans affairs, agriculture, transportation, personnel, education, and homeland security.

For Investors to Think About

Short-term investors tend to ignore some approaching realities while overly focusing on others. Long-term, investors may find that the cost and expansion of public debt will eventually have the US responsible to pay more in interest over the next decade. By 2033, the net interest on public debt is expected to make up 14% of the federal government’s total spending.

There was another period in US history when net interest made up such a large slice of Federal spending, this was in the mid-to-late 1980s. Eventually, Congress did pay some attention to deficit reduction; it took years to taper the growth. The resurgence of the expanding debt trend in recent years has been explosive.

Interest rates on bonds could have built upward pressure as more debt would need to be issued to refinance at higher rates and pay for additional spending. A greater supply of debt without a growing supply of buyers is a recipe for higher bond yields. Are higher yields attractive? In bond markets, the value of a fixed bond goes down when rates rise. Floating rate bonds tend to approximate par throughout their life, but the Treasury and Wall Street have not been quick to issue these in the face of rising coupon rates.

Stock market investors may find value in investing in companies that receive 25% or more of their revenue from government contracts, particularly those agencies on the chart above that are budgeted to grow by billions or trillions. This could include smaller companies where the impact is greater. Within this category are aerospace contractors like Kratos (KTOS), communications companies like Comtech (CMTL), or transportation-related spending that could benefit dredging from companies like Great Lakes Dredge and Dock (GLDD).

The smaller companies mentioned may benefit from the massive budget growth. But they are not alone, Channelchek is a great source of data and discovery of many companies doing great things that are destined to become even greater. Be sure to sign-up for all the free resources available to investors by going here.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.cbo.gov/

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58848

https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data#11

https://www.cbo.gov/data/estimate-presidents-budget-proposals

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

The Most Recent Michael Burry Holdings Have Been Reported

Posted on February 14, 2023February 15, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Scion’s Michael Burry Owns Online Retailers, Tech Firms, a Mortgage Servicer, and a Detention Provider

GEO Group (GEO), the publicly held prison company organized as a REIT, again tops Michael Burry’s public market holdings as of the end of last year. This is one of nine holdings; a few are on-again, off-again favorites of the revered hedge fund manager. If there is one theme in his positions, it is that of select online retail merchants. While the overall size of the positions as of quarter-end is known, these positions may not represent all investments, just those that are public and reportable to the SEC on form 13F. Burry famous for his portrayal in the movie “The Big Short” was not short any publicly traded securities as 2022 drew to a close.

Below are the nine holdings, in size order, copied directy from the 13F-HR filing. GEO, Alibaba, and JD.com are familiar to followers of Dr. Burry’s holdings as this is not the first time they have appeared in his portfolio.

Geo Group (GEO) runs private detention systems. As shown below, at the end of the second quarter of 2022, it represented 100% of Scion Asset Management’s public market positions. The current holding is roughly half the dollar amount of what it was three months prior.

Black Knight (BKI) is making its first appearance in the Scion portfolio. The mid-cap company provides mortgage and loan servicing products.

Coherent Corporation (COHR) has not been in the hedge fund manager’s portfolio prior to the last quarter. The small-cap technology company is involved in communications networks for aerospace, automotive, life sciences, and various other electronics and systems.

Alibaba (BABA) is often described as the “Chinese Amazon.com”. The only other time Scion held this well-known online retailer was during the second quarter of 2019.

JD.com (JD) is China’s largest online retailer and largest internet company by revenue. Burry owned shares once before during the first quarter of 2019.

Wolverine Worldwide (WWW) makes active footwear and apparel. Brands include Sperry, Saucony, and Hush Puppies. The small-cap company has not been in the Scion portfolio previously.

MGM Resorts (MGM) is a mid-cap company that owns and manages hotels and casinos worldwide. This is the first time Michael Burry has owned this name.

Qurante (QRTEA), formerly Liberty Interactive Corporation, is yet another direct marketer through the internet and video. The small-cap company is headquartered in Colorado.

Skywest Inc. (SKYW) is Burry’s smallest holding but still represents 4.4%. The airline has scheduled flights, including international, and also leases equipment for non-commercial flights. This is the first time the small-cap company has made an appearance in the Scion portfolio.

Take Away

Four times each year the SEC requires asset managers above a certain size to make a public filling of its portfolio.

Scion Asset Management is not exempt, but may, in addition to transacting in public securities, be creating positions in assets that are not required to be reported here. The reputation of Michael Burry has at times caused a lot of interest around less followed stocks.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Why NFL Players and Other Pros Need an Elite Money Management Team

Posted on February 9, 2023February 9, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Managing Money Is as Important as Making It: The Sad Case of Athletes Going Broke

Lacking a solid team is a recipe for organizational failure, and those intending to excel in business—or any other sector—must invest in management. Considering that many professional athletes encounter bankruptcy shortly after retiring, they are a demographic that could greatly benefit from quality financial management teams. Elite athletes earn millions of dollars during a short time, but few succeed at multiplying their earnings to create wealth. An investigation by the Global Financial Literacy Center found that 16 percent of National Football League (NFL) players declare bankruptcy within twelve years of retirement. Quite startling is that some athletes report bankruptcy as early as two years after retirement.

The results of the study also showed that NFL stars were just as likely to experience bankruptcy as other NFL players. Bankruptcy figures are equally daunting for basketball players. Research reveals that National Basketball Association (NBA) players who file for bankruptcy do so within 7.3 years after retirement, and 6.1 percent of all NBA players go bankrupt within fifteen years of exiting their profession. The emotional trauma of bankruptcy can lead to distress. Research indicates that 78 percent of NFL players experience financial distress two years after retirement.

Inept management of finances is the easiest strategy for losing wealth. Professional athletes can avert financial calamities by investing in a better management team. There is a stark difference between managing a junior athlete and managing a superstar who earns millions of dollars yearly. A professional who manages a junior athlete could be an excellent manager for a player at that stage, but the transition to elite status requires people with greater expertise.

In business, a manager should possess the relevant skills. They don’t have to be your friend. Elite athletes need elite managers to help them navigate stratospheric wealth. If a manager doesn’t have expertise in managing successful athletes or businesses, then he is unfit to manage an elite athlete. Athletes who succeed at expanding their empires are reluctant to rely on the services of amateurs.

Magic Johnson credits his success to investing in capable people rather than to the “wisdom” of family members and old friends. Pablo S. Torre paints Johnson as a serious businessman in a piece highlighting the failures of professional athletes:

Johnson started out by admitting he knew nothing about business and sought counsel from . . . men such as Hollywood agent Michael Ovitzand and Peter Guber. Now, Johnson says, he gets calls from star players “every day” . . . and cuts them short if they propose relying on family and friends.

Johnson’s strategy is even more relevant in light of the recent financial scandal involving the disappearance of over twelve million dollars held by sprinting legend Usain Bolt in Jamaican investment firm Stock and Securities Limited (SSL). Venting to reporters, Bolt’s attorney Linton Gordon argues that the Financial Services Commission (FSC) should be held liable for the mishap because the agency lapsed in providing proper oversight:

They should bear responsibility to some extent, if not entirely, because all along they kept quiet and did not alert the public, including Mr. Bolt, to the fact that the company was not operating in a way compliant with the law. It’s 10 years now they say they have been red flagging this company. Had he known that he would have withdrawn his money and he would not have lodged anymore.

Blaming the regulator is easy, but the debacle reveals deficits in Bolt’s management team. Usain Bolt did not need to know that SSL was deemed unsound years ago because his management team should have furnished him with that information. Some years ago, I was at an event where fellow investors argued that SSL was irredeemable. Bolt’s managers were out of the loop. Moreover, Jamaica is known for institutional weakness and fraud, so it’s a bit weird that a man of Bolt’s stature would have so much money stored in a Jamaican institution to begin with.

Some say that the FSC must be accountable for the misappropriation of Bolt’s money, but the FSC penned a report that Bolt’s managers would have seen if they were doing research. Moreover, in a country where agencies are frequently compromised by politics, there is a possibility that the FSC did not suspend the operations of SSL because it was constrained by rogue actors. Bolt’s managers should have shown some insight by recommending that the superstar limit his Jamaican investments and by soliciting the services of leading wealth management firms like UBS Wealth Management or Baird.

The case study of Usain Bolt demonstrates that even athletes with good managers should never hesitate to upgrade when their employees are not equipped for bigger challenges. Money is hard to make, but with a bad manager, it’s easy to lose. Therefore, athletes interested in keeping their money must invest in the right team or face the consequences.

About the Author:

Lipton Matthews is a researcher, business analyst, and contributor to Merion West, The Federalist, American Thinker, Intellectual Takeout, mises.org, and Imaginative Conservative. He may be contacted at lo_matthews@yahoo.com

Wage Inflation, Labor Shortages, and Who Stopped Working

Posted on February 9, 2023February 9, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Is the Mismatch in Workers and Open Jobs Proving to Be Transitory?

Inflation has been the most bearish word for the stock and bond markets over the past year or more. Shortly after many of the supply chain issues cleared up, and the cargo ships were no longer stacked up outside of major ports, attracting scarce workers with higher pay became a growing cause of inflationary pressure. At the end of November 2022, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that “job openings exceed available workers by about 4 million.” That number has now grown to 4.7 million after the continued strengthening of the market for qualified labor.

This mismatch, depicted in the Fed Data below, between available positions and workers to fill them, developed a more inflationary trend. The graph depicts the mismatch of labor supply and demand and the extent that it has worsened.

When the civilian labor force is greater than employment plus job openings, the economy has an immediate capacity to fill open positions. Currently, the employment level plus job openings are at 170.5 million, while the total labor force is at 165.8 million. Thus the 4.7 million quoted earlier. There are a whopping 4.7 million more jobs available compared to people available to fill them.

The civilian labor force, the amount of people working or looking for a job, is shown below in red; the current employment level plus the number of job openings is shown in blue.

Labor Participation Hesitancy

The pandemic has been emphasized as a cause of this not-very-transitory labor shortage, but the trends in labor demand and labor supply in the graph above indicate that demand was already outpacing supply as the US entered 2018. This was two years before the novel coronavirus hit US shores. Back then the mismatch was about one million workers fewer than jobs available before the economic disruption.

As the US began to move toward business-as-usual, news and market analysts offered many explanations for the labor shortage. These included childcare problems, health concerns, minimum wage pushback, and even a wave of new retirees.

The visual below shows the change experienced in the labor force participation rate (LFPR) for specific age groups: 20 to 24 years old, 25 to 54 years old, and 55+ years old. By subtracting the most recent LFPR from that of January 2020 we get the percentage-point change in labor force participation relative to the month just before the pandemic began impacting businesses.

When the pandemic hit, the sharpest decline in the LFPR was for workers between the ages of 20 and 24. Their LFPR decreased from 73% to 64.4% in 4 months before increasing again. However, at the end of 2022, the LFPR for 20- to 24-year-olds still hadn’t fully recovered and remained 1.7 percentage points below its January 2020 value.

This overall pattern is similar but less extreme for the other age groups. Although no age group fully recovered by the end of 2022, the 25-54 group was closest, at 0.7 percentage points below its January 2002 level. There’s been speculation older workers retired early (and permanently) during the pandemic, and the 55+ group remained 1.4 percentage points below its January 2020 level as of December 2022, with no sign of further recovery.

Take Away

The mechanisms that cause inflation are widely understood. If there is a shortage of goods because of the supply chain, sellers can ask more for the product. If the cost of producing goods or providing services increase, perhaps because of the cost of labor, the seller may try to pass those higher costs along. On the demand-pull side, if there is an abundance of currency, this increases demand for goods and services and is also inflationary.

While the Fed has been waging a fight against rising prices by removing liquidity and ratcheting up the cost of money (interest rates), the number of open jobs compared to the number of workers available to fill them has widened.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20221130a.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/searchresults/?st=unemployment%20rate&isTst=1

Are Naked Shorts Depressing Your Investment Portfolio?

Posted on January 23, 2023January 23, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Image Replicated from Twitter (1/23/2023)

Small-Cap Companies are Punching Back on Naked Shorts in Growing Numbers

The hashtag #NakedShorts has been trending on Twitter for over a week. To save Channelchek readers any embarrassment that may occur from Googling this term, especially at work, below are specifics on this market jargon. Also included below are specifics on why this has been trending and how it may impact self-directed retail traders and even small publicly traded companies that have the potential to be impacted by an illegal practice that apparently is not uncommon.

What are Naked Shorts?

Naked short selling of stocks is the illegal practice of short-selling shares that have not been allocated and verified to exist. Most shorting of stock occurs only after the trader borrows the security or determines that it can be borrowed before they sell it short (without owning). So naked shorting refers to short pressure on a stock that may actually be larger than the tradable shares in the market. This can place downward pressure on shares as they are sold, at times in excess of their existence.

Despite being made illegal after the 2008–09 financial crisis, naked shorting continues in practice because of loopholes in rules and discrepancies between physical and electronic trading systems.

Small Caps Revenge

Empowered by the activities of Gamestop (GME) and others, a growing number of small-cap companies are devising plans to go after naked short sellers. This could help their companies trade at a fairer value rather than be artificially depressed by illegal trading practices.

Companies involved in heightening integrity in the markets for their stock are companies like Verb Technology Co. Inc. (VERB), a provider of interactive video-based sales apps with operations in Newport, California, and Lehi, Utah. Verb said this week it was joining education company Genius Group Ltd. (GNS), e-scooter and e-bike maker Helbiz (HLBZ), and Creatd Inc. (CRTD) designed for creators in coming up with measures to ensure “greater integrity in the capital markets” as Verb Chief Executive Rory J. Cutai said in a statement.

The move gained impetus last week as Genius Group said it had appointed a former F.B.I. director to lead a task force investigating alleged illegal trading in its stock, first disclosed a few weeks ago. Genius CEO believes there has been a measurable cost to the company. “We want this to stop,” he said. “They’re taking value away from our shareholders. They’re predators. They’re doing something illegal, and we want it to stop, whether that means getting regulators to enforce existing regulations or put new ones in place,” he said.

Legality of Naked Short Selling

In regular (legal) short trading, an investor borrows shares from someone else and pays an interest rate or “rebate rate.” They then sell them in anticipation of the stock price falling. The trade is a winner if the price falls and the seller buys them back at a lower price (netting out rebate rate) to close out the open short sale.

In naked short selling, investors don’t borrow the stock. They skip right to selling unowned with a promise to deliver them at a later date. If that promise is not fulfilled, it’s a failure to deliver.

Recently, companies such as AMC have paid a special dividend to determine, and frankly hurt, those short sellers that have not abided by the rules by first borrowing the security it sold.

Image: Elon Musk has been very vocal, Tesla is a company that hedge fund managers have routinely shorted (Twitter)

What Some Companies are Doing

Last week Helbiz said it was going to punch back at naked short positions. Creatd CEO Jeremy Frommer, meanwhile, is behind Ceobloc, a website that aims to end the practice of naked short selling. “Illegal naked short selling is the biggest risk to the health of today’s public markets” is how the site introduces its mission.

Genius just set guidance for 2023, saying it expects revenue of $48 million to $52 million, up 37% from its 2022 pro forma guidance. Last Thursday, the stock rose a record 290% in volume of about 270 million shares traded. That crushed the daily average of about 634,000. The CEO says this is another indicator of wrongdoing, given that the company’s float is just 10.9 million shares. “Clearly, that’s far more shares than we created,” the founder, Roger Hamilton points out.

Take Away

It is unclear what the task force of the small-cap companies intends to do. Companies like AMC Theaters (AMC) waged war by declaring a dividend that was a different class of stock. Shareholders would have to verify their ownership of a registered share in order to receive the dividend. This went a long way to verify what is in the float that is legitimate and that which is not.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/small-cap-companies-are-going-after-naked-short-sellers-in-growing-numbers-its-the-biggest-risk-to-the-health-of-todays-public-markets-11674480805?mod=newsviewer_click

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nakedshorting.asp

New Tax Benefits Investors are Being Granted

Posted on January 20, 2023January 20, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

The IRS (Actually Congress) Makes it Less Taxing to Invest

As we enter the new tax season, there is something important investors of all ages, incomes, and investment styles may have missed. Buried in the CONSOLIDATED APPROPRIATIONS ACT, which is the $1.7 trillion legislation passed just before the holidays, is a section called the SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022. If you missed it, and don’t wish to wade through the 4,100 pages of legislation, I’ve summarized seven key features below.

I’m not a tax attorney, CPA, or IRS employee, so although my reading comprehension is decent, use the below as a starting point, then get advice from professionals or sources, including IRS.gov, you’ve come to rely upon.

Investor Benefits

It’s not a stretch to expect that SECURE 2.0 will affect most Americans’ tax-advantaged investing accounts — and most likely in a beneficial way. The bill, which builds on a retirement act passed in 2019, includes changes to 401(k)s and 403(b)s. Additionally, it now includes emergency needs provisions, ROTH changes, new rules for saving and withdrawing from retirement plans, and a 529 plan change that will be welcome for those trapped balances.

The vast majority of SECURE 2.0’s new rules begin this year, but some are not implemented until 2024 or even later.

Seven Key Areas to Help Taxpayers

#1 Automatic Enrollment and Plan Portability (Starts 2025)

This requires businesses adopting new 401(k) and 403(b) plans to automatically enroll eligible employees, starting at a contribution rate of at least 3%, beginning in 2025. It also permits retirement plan service providers to offer plan sponsors automatic portability services, transferring an employee’s retirement accounts to a new plan if they change jobs. This could benefit those that would be confused by the myriad of investments in a brokerage IRA as compared to a prepackaged 401(k) eligible retirement plan at the new employer.

#2 – Emergency Savings (Starts 2024)

Defined contribution retirement plans would be able to add an emergency savings account in the form of a designated Roth account eligible to accept participant contributions for non-highly compensated employees starting in 2024. Contributions would be limited to $2,500 annually (or lower, as set by the employer), and the first four withdrawals in a year would be tax and penalty-free. Depending on plan rules, contributions may be eligible for an employer match. In addition to giving participants penalty-free access to funds, an emergency savings fund could encourage plan participants to save for short-term and unexpected expenses.

#3 – Student Loan Debt (Starts 2024)

Employers will be able to “match” employee student loan payments beginning in 2024 with matching payments to a retirement account. This aids workers with increased retirement savings while they are paying off educational loans.

#4 – 529 Plans Rolled to Roth (Begins 2023)

After 15 years of aging, 529 plan assets can be rolled over to a Roth IRA for the beneficiary over five years. This is subject to the annual Roth contribution maximum with a lifetime cap of $35,000. The rollover is treated as a contribution towards the annual Roth IRA contribution limit.

#5 – Distributions Required by Law (Begins 2023)

When you’ve built up your IRA, 401(k), or 403(b) or other tax-advantaged money, you can’t shelter it from taxes forever. In the past, the IRS required you to pull an amount out, based on their calculation, each year upon reaching 72 years of age. This money is then fully taxable if it was sheltered from taxes when it was placed in the account. The Act now gives us an extra year to allow our investments to grow before beginning withdrawals. Starting in 2023, the age at which owners of retirement accounts must start taking required minimum distributions (RMDs) increased to 73.

The SECURE 2.0 Act then increases the age at which RMDs must start to 75 starting in 2033.

There had been a steep penalty for failure to withdraw your RMD. It has been dropped from 50% of the amount not taken to 25%. By any measure, 25% is still a severe penalty, but it is better than having forgetfulness cost you 50% of your money. Better yet, the penalty will be reduced to 10% for IRA owners if the account holder withdraws the RMD amount previously not taken and submits a corrected tax return in a timely manner. The rationale is that self-managed IRAs are more likely to be missed than assets in 401(k) plans.

Additionally, Roth accounts in employer retirement plans will be exempt from the RMD requirements starting in 2024.

#6 – Increased Catch-Up Contributions (Begins 2025)

Starting the first day of 2025, individuals ages 60 through 63 years old will be able to make catch-up contributions of up to $10,000 annually to a workplace plan; this amount will then be indexed to inflation. The catch-up amount for people aged 50 and older has not changed for 2023 ($7,500.) There is, however, a “but.” If you earned more than $145,000 in the prior calendar year, all catch-up contributions at age 50 or older will need to be made to a Roth account in after-tax dollars. Individuals earning $145,000 or less, adjusted for inflation going forward, will be exempt from this Roth requirement.

IRAs currently have a $1,000 catch-up contribution limit for people aged 50 and over. Starting in 2024, that limit will be indexed to inflation, meaning it could adjust every year based on federally determined cost-of-living changes.

#7 – Employer Matching for Roth Accounts (Begins 2024)

Employers will be able (although not required) to provide employees the option of receiving vested matching contributions to Roth accounts. Until now, any employer match in a sponsored plan was made on a pre-tax basis. Contributions to a Roth retirement plan are made after tax, after which earnings can grow tax-free.

In 2024, Roth RMDs from an employer-sponsored plan is no longer required. This money can stay invested and even grow tax-free for as long as the account owner deems it prudent.

Take Away

The SECURE 2.0 Act provides over 90 changes that impact taxes, at the same time, could mean increased business for the firms involved in administering qualified plans. The law builds on earlier changes that increased the age at which retirees must take RMDs.

There are many small provisions in the new law; the highlights include helping younger workers save while they continue to pay off student debt, also making it easier to move accounts from one employer to another and to enable people to save for emergencies within retirement accounts.

Older Americans could feel a more immediate benefit from the increased age at which retirees must begin taking RMDs from IRA and 401(k) accounts and the increase in the size of catch-up contributions for older workers’ plans.

SECURE 2.0 provides increased opportunities to save for retirement. Everyone’s financial situation is different. As always, consult a tax professional to understand how these changes best apply to your situation. We encourage you to consult Channelchek and other trusted sources of investment information as you weigh decisions related to the investments themselves.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Secure%202.0_Section%20by%20Section%20Summary%2012-19-22%20FINAL.pdf

https://www.adp.com/spark/articles/2023/01/secure-20-act-of-2022-what-it-means-for-your-business.aspx#:~:text=Referred%20to%20as%20SECURE%202.0,improve%20retirement%20outcomes%20for%20employees.

Gold Stock’s Rise May be Just Beginning

Posted on January 11, 2023January 11, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

How High Can Gold Rise?

Gold is rising amid a weakening dollar and languishing cryptocurrencies as weaknesses in these asset classes are causing institutions and small investors alike to back off. What’s going on with gold and all the different methods for investors to gain exposure (bullion, ETF trusts, mining stocks)? And can it be believed? While several dynamics could indicate a perfect storm for exposure to gold prices, there have been a number of “head-fakes” over the past few years that have disappointed investors. Let’s look at what has been driving the recent upward march in the metal, which is still considered a store of value.

What’s Going On?

Gold futures touched an eight-month high on Wednesday, January 11 (Six-month chart below). The US dollar (shown here vs Yen and Euro) has been losing its strength in response to central bank hawkishness overseas coupled with a sizable decline in US bond yields.

The ramp up of China’s economy after a long period of Covid-related restrictions is pushing precious and industrial metal prices higher as demand is expected to escalate. Copper is also benefiting as futures contracts for this highly conductive metal reached its highest level since June.

The concerns over the global economy in 2023 also have some wealth managers allocating a larger portion to gold and silver for “investment insurance”. Gold historically has a low correlation to stock prices. Investors who were relying on a 60/40 (stocks & bonds) allocation to hedge each other against one asset class tumbling found they could have benefited from further diversification

Outlook (Bullion/Miners)

In a survey conducted before Christmas, BullionVault users forecast a gold price of $2,012.60 for the end of 2023, with nearly 38% of the 1,829 full responses pointing to the need to spread risk and diversify portfolios as the top reason for investing in bullion.

In his quarterly report on metals and mining, the Noble Capital Markets senior equity analyst, Mark Reichaman shared an outlook that sounded positive but cautious on precious metals miners. “We think precious metals prices around current levels are sufficient for mining companies to be profitable and attract new investment. Our outlook is for range-bound pricing around current levels with a modest upward bias in the first half of 2023, said Reichamn who focuses on materials and mining.

Take Away

A dollar trending upward attracts assets from across the globe. The long trend seems to have broken which has left higher demand for gold and gold mining investments. Also feeding into the demand is China reopening manufacturing that had been shuttered.

The crypto crash and current uncertainty have had the affect of causing investors in these alternative assets to move to other investments.

There has been a move by investors looking for alternative allocations to more traditional stock and bond holdings, including registered investment advisors (RIA). The 60/40 portfolio took a huge hit last year, an allocation to less correlated gold and gold stocks may be deemed prudent by those not looking to repeat.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

https://www.channelchek.com/news-channel/metals-mining-fourth-quarter-2022-review-and-outlook

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/usdx.asp

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-hits-fresh-8-month-high-on-china-reopening-hopes-11673444335?mod=markets

https://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-price-rally-51672870199

Robinhood Stockholder’s Concern if SBF’s Holdings are Being Seized

Posted on January 5, 2023January 5, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Could There be an Impact on Robinhood Shareholders with the SBF Share Seizure

Creditors and customers of FTX may be able to reclaim some assets that were wiped out as the feds have been seizing the 7.50% stake in Robinhood (HOOD) stock held by Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF). SBF faces charges of fraud and a myriad of financial crimes after the collapse of FTX in November. The impact of the collapse is having an effect on other areas of finance, including assets that had been controlled by SBF. The Robinhood shares are valued near $450 million, and while this may bring some hope or relief to those that will receive a distribution, there is a risk to HOOD investors.

Background

The FTX bankruptcy has left a line of claimants to recapture what they can from the cryptocurrency giant. Bankruptcies are seldom easy; those that could involve layers of fraud become tied up in even larger disputes and legal battles. For example, the large Robinhood holding is tied up in a dispute between FTX and bankrupt crypto lender BlockFi. The company alleges that SBF put up the shares as collateral for a loan to Alameda Research, a company he also owned.

The HOOD stake was purchased in 2022 through a holding company SBF controlled, Robinhood of course is the innovative broker specializing in self-directed individual investors. Through the DOJ, authorities are going after the shares of HOOD and accounts that are held at the bank Silvergate Capital (SI) which is a banker for the crypto industry.

Separately, court filings on January 4th brought awareness to a NY federal judge ordered last month requiring the seizure of some $93 million that an FTX arm held in accounts at Silvergate. As it relates to this seizure. The Justice Department says it believes the assets seized are not the property of the bankruptcy estate, while a lawyer for FTX maintains that the seizures were from accounts not directly controlled by the company. They were ordered in connection with the criminal case involving SBF.

FTX investors’ asset claims in the exchange, which was once valued at $32 billion, come after creditors and other rightful claimants.

How This Could Impact Robinhood Shareholders

Asset seizures and later distribution to those hurt by fraud involve liquidation of the assets seized. In the case of stocks, they will be sold and turned into cash. Imagine a sudden effort to sell 7.50% of any company. That is a large percentage to move. The stake, worth between $400 and $500 million, may serve as a dark cloud depressing share prices and slowing any planned growth of the company. It may eventually culminate in liquidation at a pace not conducive to retaining a level stock price.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.theblock.co/post/199271/doj-seizing-millions-in-robinhood-shares-linked-to-ftx-lawyer-says

https://www.wsj.com/articles/judge-ordered-seizure-of-money-from-ftx-digital-markets-accounts-at-silvergate-11672866368

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ftx-robinhood-doj-assets-51672932192?mod=hp_LATEST

Golden Rule of Successful Trading/Investing

Posted on January 4, 2023January 5, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

One Should Never feel Forced to Trade or Get Involved Because They are Bored

Most start off a New Year with great intentions. These often include saving money, starting a family, or finding a better job. A co-worker of mine is intent on skydiving before year-end – whatever. To each their own. For many involved in the markets, 2023 has become the year they want to further improve their trading. This usually begins with stepping back, reminding themselves of trading basics, then not falling into old habits weeks later. Another step is developing new understanding and new companies. It also includes not trading with the need to make back last year’s losses in a hurry.

There is one trading basic that is often ignored because it feels like it conflicts with other goals. But it doesn’t. It is knowing when being uninvolved is the best decision. Doing nothing without feeling you may be missing something takes practice for most. It may take more practice for those that have experienced the thrill of a mostly green trading account.

Trade No Stock Before its Time

Over the holidays, family members would ask, “should I buy Tesla?” or “should I be buying Apple down here?” My mom would instead ask, something that in my mind is a similar question. She’d ask, “when are you going to get married?” These are all similar because Tesla and Apple, when considering the whole universe of stocks, are probably not the best fit for the accounts of these people. Similarly, in the absence of finding a good personal fit, unless someone is holding a gun to one’s head, I believe in waiting for circumstances with a high probability of a positive outcome. Don’t get involved because you’re bored, or because you think you have to is the message.

If your win rate is over 50%, you’re doing better than average, this is as true in trading as it is in relationships. If you force either, your success rate goes down, and you’ve wasted time, money, and invited frustration. Yet so many investor/traders willy-nilly jump into something because they are bored, feel they are missing out, or are told it is what they are supposed to be doing.

Forcing trades, no matter how tempting it may be, how bored you are, or how much FOMO you’re experiencing, has a lower chance of being successful than if you wait for your perfect setup. Sitting on your hands so you can’t press the “Buy” button is preferable to being in the situation of trying to unwind a trade you spent too little time waiting to come to you. Good opportunity doesn’t always arrive on schedule, but if you have capital tied up in a mistake, you may not be able to jump at a real match for your portfolio later on.

Trading is Not Glamorous

The definition of booyah is “expressing triumphant exuberance.” If you yearn to say “booyah” or do any other kind of touchdown dance, you may find you will pull the sell trigger too early. A main key to trading is knowing what you want, then patience. Patience is one of the most important skills you can have as a trader. You need to have the control and the discipline to wait for a quality setup according to your individual strategy. It may take a while, but confidence the trades will come helps. Develop a trading strategy so you know the guidelines you will adhere to; abandoning that strategy just to be involved, over time, will cause you to be worse off.

Consistently successful traders will tell you that one of the most important things to remember with trading is that you should never let your emotions control your actions. If you can’t think rationally if you aren’t planning your trade and trading your plan, sit on your hands until you can. Really, defund your account, find another way to get your thrills. Because if you force a trade and it works out anyway, you have reinforced a bad habit. Many trading accounts of good people got fried in 2022 because they did the wrong thing in 2021, but in 2021 they were bailed out by the markets. Doing the wrong thing and succeeding is costly because you tend to repeat it.

A hail Mary pass sometimes meets the desired goal in a football game, swinging for a home run in baseball and connecting certainly can lead to exuberance and even a winning game. But most often, these are low-probability irrational plays if you actually want to win. Increase your time on base, work on your short plays, study your opponent, or whatever other kind of reference helps convey this thinking. Because saying “I do” to a stock without successful due diligence is like asking to eventually lose. If you just want excitement, then maybe you could consider skydiving.

Final Thoughts

We’re all always learning. Channelchek is a good way to discover less explored companies and to either learn or be reminded of things that may enhance your positive outcomes. Sign up now, there’s no paywall, just good info not found on more mainstream investment sites. Go here.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Why You Should Treat Your Trading Account Like a Used Car Lot

Posted on December 30, 2022December 30, 2022 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Smaller Losses and Bigger Gains Come with Mindset

I don’t think I’m a very good businessman. I act too much with the heart. – Pelé

If you treat the holdings in your trading account with any attachment, your ability to sell at the right time will be hindered, and your profit potential will suffer. Ideally, an active trading account accumulates when the selling volume reaches a peak, prices are cheap, and lightens up when prices are sufficiently above the purchase price. Or when there appears to be better used for the account’s capital — including moving to cash equivalents.

The Pelé quote above reminds me of many active traders; they enjoy the rush of playing and know they can only claim a victory when on the field and in play. These traders often stay on the field too long and accumulate losing positions. The markets are not a game where the odds of winning or losing are equal on any given day. Trading the markets is better thought of as a business that, at times should increase inventory and at times scale down.

Think of Your Trading Account as a Business

I struggled this week as I had two positions in the red that, for tax reasons, I should let go of to offset gains and the taxes that go along with those gains. These positions are not acting poorly, but they are negative, and they both are taking longer than I had hoped to pay off. Each easily allows me to immediately purchase a similar position without upsetting the IRS. But I have hesitated to sell all week.

If trading is a business, one does what is believed to net the most profit – always. I’m usually pretty good at this, but these two small positions would represent my first losses of the year in my trading account (hurray for me). I was fortunate enough to spot the market’s relentless one-direction trend in 2022, this allowed me to ride the downward waves. The trend seems to be continuing, so exiting these two holdings and getting back into something with similar attributes makes solid business management sense. But it isn’t that easy, I’m a competitive person. The “sportsman” side of me did not want to take any losses after dozens of wins. Today, the last day of the year, I woke and told myself the intelligent thing is doing what should net more money – not what will net bragging rights over win percentage.

There are many other reasons people don’t sell when the probabilities indicate they should. One is not pre-determining if the trade is behaving as expected; another is falling in love with a stock and not wanting to part with it. Another is knowing you were once up and not wanting to permanently lock in something that is now red. Another may be “addiction to the game,” this burns money; a good trader should be comfortable sitting with a large cash position for weeks or months if that is what makes the most business sense.

All of these feelings that impact behavior are part of being human. There are plenty of other outlets to act on feelings outside of the markets, but investing requires you to act as though you are running a business. Don’t fall in love with your positions, and if they aren’t treating you well, get rid of them.

Car Lot Owner Mentality

This may not work for everyone, but I think of my trading account (not retirement savings) as a used car lot. I am the manager and every one of the cars represents something I want to sell. If you look at your account in this way, stocks are just inventory. If times are good and prices are rising on my inventory, I want to slow down the pace of my selling. When times ahead look as though people may not want the kind of inventory on my lot, I can’t sell fast enough, even if at a loss. The cash then raised serves as dry powder that stands ready to be invested in cars/inventory/stocks believed to be more in demand. Inventory that will provide more of a profit.

By thinking of my account as a car lot, I avoid 95% of the mental, “acting with the heart” trading missteps that I see others get trapped by. I still have a 5% problem that includes wanting a perfect score.

Investors buying and selling on an exchange have a huge advantage over managers of a car lot. For most exchange traded securities, finding someone to close out your position with does not require someone walking in off the street that just happens to want what is on your lot. Investors of securities have sell buttons that alert the investment community that you are unloading. Even thinly traded securities will have someone take the other side of the trade at the right price. There are no other businesses in the world where unwanted inventory is this easy to unload. Traders are like car lot owners with this unique advantage.

Don’t Coddle the HODL Model

While buy and hold may be a good long-term portfolio strategy for retirement money or other long-term assets, holding without reason other than the investment community encourages you to “HODL” forever and not to throw in the towel can get you in trouble. The HODL community encourages investors of certain assets to Hold On for Dear Life; this isn’t trading; it’s a recipe for an ulcer.

When does it make sense to close out a position? In general, there are some marketplace related reasons to unwind a position. These are reasons that are related to the company, changes in the markets, or better opportunity elsewhere. Or non-market-related outside reasons. Perhaps one wishes to use some of the profit to put in a pool, or they wish to stem possible losses while waiting for better clarity. Outsiders encouraging an entire community to hold a position to help push up its price only works until greed kicks in and those sworn to HODL realize the stock is up for unnatural reasons and they should be among the first out.

Kneejerk market reactions to news or events can cause a wave of selling or buying that then settles down and reverses somewhat. This may provide an opportunity to unwind positions into the feeding frenzy and re-enter it when the market settles in at a more level-headed price.

Broaden Investment Base

If you are a used car lot owner during a recession, you may opt to only half-fill your lot and make sure the cars in inventory are affordable to the community you serve. If the economy fires up and money is then widely available, you may want to maximize your inventory and make sure they are cars that will net the most profit. It is important to know a lot about different classes of cars. This is how you run that business, minivans and crossovers some years, even if you like British sports cars.

For trading, after the pandemic plunge in early 2020, the markets had solid trends. First up with many sectors outpacing the others. Then it trended down, with many sectors outpacing the others. Understanding the sectors and companies within the sectors allows better decisions. If you have spent all your time wondering whether you should get into Apple or Tesla at the exclusion of others, while oil companies or utilities were what had a clear trend, or in Nasdaq 100 stocks because the media always talks about them, when small-caps were making their move, you may wish to broaden your focus.

Take-Away

Internal trouble exiting positions impacts more self-directed investors than will ever admit to it on social media (or actual in-the-flesh interaction). If thought of as inventory and a tool for maximizing return, the trouble is put in a place most can handle, as a “business owner,” you are buying what you feel you can sell. That is the only reason to buy. If you don’t know if you can sell it higher tomorrow, but there is something that you believe you can, then perhaps it is time to evaluate dumping, even at a loss, to pick up something else.

Cash can often be that something else. Earning 4% annually on a short t-bill isn’t sexy, but having that liquid holding when opportunity presents itself, allows you to pounce. There is nothing worse than seeing something very clearly as a winning trade and not having the capital to load up on it.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Retail Switches Tesla Stock Ownership Into Plaid Mode

Posted on December 22, 2022December 22, 2022 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Tesla Stock Attracts Retail Bottom Fishing

Cathie Wood isn’t the only one favoring Tesla (TSLA) at recent valuations. Retail accounts have just made it their favorite stock in 2022 as transactions outpace the old favorite, Apple (AAPL). Money from retail trading accounts flowing into the company founded by Elon Musk increased by 424% to $15.41 billion, versus $2.94 billion in 2021. To be fair, the iPhone maker isn’t too far behind, as retail made $15.21 billion in cumulative purchases during the same period.

Vanda is a global independent research company that provides tactical macro and strategic investment analysis to institutional investors. In the firm’s, last research note of 2022, Marco Iachini, senior vice president of research at Vanda, shed some light and data on retail’s current favorite as institutional traders are placing more and more importance on money flows from self-directed investors.

Tesla’s share price has been moving lower in recent weeks as investors and analysts have been critical of the steps the billionaire has taken at his social media company, including the level of focus he has given to his new acquisition. They also show concern of the interrelationship between Musk’s wealth, Twitter’s financial needs, and any tie-in with how Tesla may trade.

Tesla shares are headed for a 60% decline in 2022, which is the worst sell-off since its 2010 public offering. Tesla’s year-to-date loss outpaces the S&P 500’s decline of 18% and the Nasdaq 100’s drop of 31%. The old favorite, Apple stock, has given up 23% during the year.

On a wider scale, investors in Tesla, Apple, and other large-cap tech companies have been slammed this year after two years of above-average returns. Vanda underscored Tesla’s popularity, saying the stock makes up about 11% of the average retail portfolio.

On the Robinhood platform, Tesla is the ninth most popular stock of the year, with Microsoft filling the top position.

Many institutional investors have, over the years, used retail interest as a sign of what to stay away from or even short. “Given its growing importance, we view retail activity around it as a crucial signpost for what may be an eventual full-fledged capitulation in 2023,” said Iachini, who wrote the research note. This flies in the face of institutional chief investment officer and founder of ARK Invest Cathie Wood, who has purchased slightly more than 445,000 shares of the EV manufacturer since October. Over the previous year and a half, Wood has been a net seller of Tesla.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-wood-loads-tesla-amid-063957962.html

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-tsla-apple-stock-price-investors-popular-favorite-retail-markets-2022-12