Category: Personal Finance

Professional Investment Managers Do This, Are You?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

The Basics of Creating an Investment Plan

One investment tool used by professionals far more often than self-directed investors could prove beneficial to individual retail investors to prevent their portfolio from chasing stocks that may have already had their run, or holding for too long, or even selling just as the company is about to rise. And it’s created by the investors themselves, at times with the help of a wealth advisor. A written Investment Policy Statement (IPS) even at the most basic level, can go a long way to commit to building a portfolio to fit one’s purpose and in ways true to that purpose.

What is an IPS?

An Investment Policy Statement (IPS) is a detailed framework that outlines an individual’s approach to investing to achieve their financial goals. Put another way, it’s a compass that helps investors keep their bearings and make sober decisions about their investments based on their risk tolerance, time horizon, financial objectives, and other relevant factors.

What’s Included in an IPS?

Financial Goals: Clearly define short-term and long-term financial objectives, such as saving for retirement, buying a home, funding education, or starting a business is the best starting point.

Risk Tolerance: Everyone wants the best of both worlds, but risk can work against you. Assessing one’s risk appetite or willingness to tolerate market volatility and potential losses should be an honest conversation with oneself. It should then be defined and adhered to when determining the proportion of investments exposed to higher-risk versus lower-risk assets.

Asset Allocation: Asset allocation can help the investor balance risk using non-correlated assets so the positions don’t all tend to move together, up and especially down. Determining the optimal mix of asset classes like stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, or cash based on risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial goals is just the beginning. A person with long-term goals may wish to review the history of small-cap stocks to large-cap stocks and allocate more of their stocks to the more historically volatile, but better performing small-caps. Similarly, someone with a short time horizon may determine a larger allocation of bonds suits their financial goals best, and then perhaps choose shorter duration or higher quality bonds.

Diversification: Spreading investments across different asset classes, industries, geographies, and investment vehicles to reduce risk and enhance portfolio stability. Diversification minimizes the impact of adverse events on the overall investment performance.

Investment Selection: Identify specific investments, such as individual stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), or bonds, that align with the chosen asset allocation and meet the criteria for risk, return, and other preferences. Resources available to individuals today, including from retail brokers and online research and data from sources like Channelchek can provide insights into risk and reward.

Monitor and Review: The IP document should define how often you’ll assess the investment portfolio’s performance, making adjustments as needed while staying true to your stated financial goal. Staying informed about changes in market conditions and investment opportunities along the way will help the review.

Benefits and Importance of IPS for Individuals

Clarity and Focus: An IPS takes the fuzziness out of investing in a world with so many options. It helps individuals define and articulate their financial goals and align their investment decisions with those objectives. It may not be a precise roadmap, but it can serve as a compass helping to reduce costly impulsive or emotional investment decisions.

Risk Management: By assessing risk tolerance and designing an appropriate asset allocation, an IPS helps individuals manage risk effectively and avoid overexposure to any single investment or asset class. Risk management can include rebalancing your portfolio, selling a bond if it drops below a certain investment grade, and making sure any stock you purchase trades with ample volume for better execution and timing.

Consistency and Discipline: An IPS encourages individuals to maintain a long-term perspective and stay committed to their investment strategy, even during periods of market volatility or short-term fluctuations.

Maximizing Returns: An IPS may even help remind you that you have too much money sitting in low yielding bank accounts. Through diversification and thoughtful investment selection, an IPS aims to optimize investment returns while minimizing unnecessary risks that don’t match your goals.

Adaptability: An IPS is not a static document. It should be periodically reviewed and adjusted to accommodate changes in personal circumstances, market conditions, and financial goals.

Downside Risk of an IPS

The problem with the idea of creating an IPS is that so few take the time to actually write one. It requires thinking through your goals, and determining what expected returns are in different asset classes, and then breking those down further for security selection. While this may seem like a lot of work, if it improves the outcome toward meeting a goal, or provides confidence one will meet the goal, it is worth the investment in time.

If it seems overwhelming, don’t get lost in too many details to start, just include the basics. The following may help take the mystery out of what a basic Investment Policy Statement can look like:

Financial Goals:

Short-term goal: Save $35,000 for a down payment on a house within the next three years.

Long-term goal: Build a retirement nest egg of $1 million over the next 30 years.

Risk Tolerance:

Moderate risk tolerance: Willing to accept some market volatility in pursuit of higher returns.

Asset Allocation:

Equities (stocks): 60% of the portfolio for long-term growth potential.

Fixed Income (bonds): 30% of the portfolio for stability and income generation.

Cash and Cash Equivalents: 10% of the portfolio for liquidity and emergency funds.

Diversification:

Within equities: Include 60% index large-cap funds, 20% large-cap individual stocks (no more than 5% of portfolio each). Include 20% small-cap stocks, 10% in a small cap index fund and 10% in individual stocks diversified across different sectors (technology, healthcare, finance, etc.). All equities U.S. based companies.  

Within fixed income: Ladder maturities evenly out to seven years maturity. Include bonds rated BB or above, no municipal bonds.  

Monitoring and Review:

Regularly review the portfolio’s performance and make adjustments as needed. Seek to rebalance quarterly beginning September 15, 2023.

Stay informed about market trends, economic indicators, and any changes in the individual investments. Subscribe to trsuted news sources like no-cost Channelchek daily emails.

Reassess the investment strategy periodically to ensure it remains aligned with financial goals and changing circumstances.

Please note that this example is generalized and should not be considered personalized investment advice.

Take Away

Overall, a written investment policy can provide individuals with a structured approach to investing, increase their chances of achieving their financial objectives, and help them navigate the complexities of the investment landscape more effectively.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

New SEC Rules Could be Costly for Investors

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Do New SEC Rules Bubble Wrap Money Market Funds?

What if you bought a new home in what has historically been a trouble-free neighborhood? You are not one to take big risks with your family or belongings so you also pay extra for what are expected to be the best locks, install a security camera, motion detector lights, and build a state-of-the-art fence behind which sits your German shepherd named Patton. The first week after you move in, a town representative comes by and tells you that they are worried about your safety, so you and everyone else in town must also spend a little money each month on an alarm system they approve of. To you, even this small amount of money is a waste as Patton is generally always on the job, you have ample protection in other ways, and the extra money is better spent on dog food. 

This is what many investors feel the SEC has just done by changing the already extremely low-risk rules for money market funds this week. These investors believe they already had ample safety in the “cash” allocation and may have already given up return in order to secure that safety. So the forced added layer of protection to MM funds, which have in over five decades only seen two funds in the asset class inch down in value, is an example of a regulator forcing them to pay for the protection they don’t need.   

Money Market Fund Background

Money market funds are governed by the SEC under rule 2a-7 of the Investment Company Act of 1940. These rules are very specific in defining the underlying assets in the fund. The most common use of MM funds, and the restrictions governing the holdings, is to provide a very liquid alternative that can be viewed as cash among your other investments. Fund families at times use their MM funds as a funnel or gateway investment from which they hope to have investors venture beyond to other higher fee offerings.

Money market funds, typically purchased through a broker, are not insured, but the extremely high credit quality of underlying securities required by the SEC, along with the very short average maturity required by the SEC, along with the amount each fund is required by the SEC to hold in overnight investments, has provided investors with a very low-risk harbor for balances that may be used as savings, or as a parking place while waiting for more aggressive investment opportunities.

Unlike other mutual funds, where investors buy shares and over time the share price changes, money market funds shares are valued at $1.00. When the underlying investments accrue or pay interest, the non-fee portion of income is credited to account holders as a share dividend, always valued at $1.00. In this way it is designed to feel like a bank savings account. This minimal risk, savers to the tune of trillions of dollars, endure in exchange for higher returns than available in a bank passbook account, and the convenience of transferring money to purchase other investments.

What is the risk of a 2a-7 money market fund breaking the buck? You can count on two fingers. Since the first money market fund came to market in 1971, it has briefly occurred in two funds, and no investors lost money.  

The first time a MM fund broke the buck was in 1994, a fund named Community Bankers U.S. Government Money Market Fund saw it’s NAV plummet from $1.00 to $0.96. This was after financial engineers at top Wall Street investment banks created derivative instruments that were far from liquid, and stopped accruing interest if markets didn’t perform as expected. Imagine being the first MM fund manager in history to drop below $1.00 because you disregarded prudence.   

The second time was in 2008. The Reserve Primary Fund held Lehman Brothers commercial paper (very short-term notes). On September 16th of that year the fund company announced it had suffered losses in the fund to the extent that assets fell below $1.00 per share to $0.97.

The U.S. Treasury Department guaranteed the $1.00 share price in 2008 to prevent a run on MM funds. And in both occurrences, fund companies, in order to restore faith in their other products, made sure money fund holders were whole by redeeming shares when requested at $1.00.

SEC New Rules for Money Funds Beginning October 2023

In 2010 The SEC created new rules to enhance transparency, liquidity, and bolster the credit quality of MM funds. Despite having only experienced two brief brushes with breaking the buck.

The new rules for 2a-7 SEC-regulated money funds (any fund with “money” in the title is regulated under 2a-7) included that daily maturities must equal at least 10% of the fund. And further, each week at least 30% of the fund notes need to mature. The weighted average maturity of all holdings in any non-government MM fund can not extend longer than 60 days, down from 90 days. The rules essentially were a safe cash alternative and made it super safe, and along the way, they rduced average return to the investors.

A reminder, there has not been an incident since the new rules, but there was some concern in 2020 as the financial system took measures in response to the novel coronavirus.

On July 12, 2023 the SEC announced it has decided that investors in MM funds need to be protected even better. Or perhaps it is better protecting the fund industry by adding extra safety measures that they all have to play by, giving none a real competitive advantage, and increasing their competitiveness against FDIC insure bank money funds. Either way, it is sure to lower, once again, the interest rates paid on the average MM fund. Considering interest rate compounding and the time value of money, investors this coming October will begin “paying” more for protections than they are probably worth.

The SEC explained its reasons for the added protection.“Money market funds – nearly $6 trillion in size today – provide millions of Americans with a deposit alternative to traditional bank accounts,” said SEC Chair Gary Gensler. “Money market funds, though, have a potential structural liquidity mismatch. As a result, when markets enter times of stress, some investors – fearing dilution or illiquidity – may try to escape the bear. This can lead to large amounts of rapid redemptions. Left unchecked, such stress can undermine these critical funds. I support this adoption because it will enhance these funds’ resiliency and ability to protect against dilution. Taken together, the rules will make money market funds more resilient, liquid, and transparent, including in times of stress. That benefits investors.”

The SEC finalized the most recent amendments to Rule 2a-7 on July 12, 2023. The amendments are designed to improve the resilience and transparency of money market funds by:

  • Requiring money market funds to impose a mandatory liquidity fee of 2% when daily net redemptions exceed 5% of total assets.
  • Increasing the minimum daily liquid asset requirement from 10% to 15% of total assets
  • Increasing the minimum weekly liquid asset requirement from 30% to 35% of total asset
  • Giving money market fund boards the discretion to impose a liquidity fee if daily net redemptions exceed 2.5% of total assets.

Beginning in October 1, 2023, money market funds will also disclose more information about their liquidity risk, including the daily and weekly liquid asset requirements, the amount of liquidity fees imposed, and the reasons for imposing liquidity fees.

What Could the Impact Be?

In economics, everything has an impact. To address redemption costs and liquidity concerns, the amendments will require institutional prime and institutional tax-exempt money market funds to impose liquidity fees when a fund experiences daily net redemptions exceeding 5 percent of net assets, unless the fund’s liquidity costs are de minimis. This alone could cause investors to try to be first to the door if trouble is perceived thereby increasing the number of runs on these low-risk funds. The shorter average maturity, and higher percentage of holdings held maturing in one day and seven days will also reduce earnings in a normal sloping yield curve environment.

In addition, the amendments will require any non-government money market fund to impose a discretionary liquidity fee if the board determines that a fee is in the best interest of the fund. This could be perceived as the funds management punishing investors for expecting a MM fund to provide liquidity on demand. It could also have the impact of funds taking more chances, as the fund manager knows that if a sudden withdrawal spree occurs and a large percentage of their holdings have gone down in value, they can charge customers for wanting their money. 

Take Away

When it comes to investing, risk versus return is a top consideration. Many investors know this and are concerned that regulatory bodies try to protect investors from the downside of risk. By doing this they shield investors from the benefits of risk. It can be argued that some IPOs may not be suitable for every investor, but should ultra-safe money market funds be further shored up at an ongoing cost in return, to reduce the unlikely day when they may lose 3 cents a share? Write to me and let me know what you think.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2021/ic-34441-fact-sheet.pdf

https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/money-market-fund

Will the AI Revolution Eliminate the Need for Wealth Managers?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Can Investment Advisors and Artificial Intelligence Co-Exist

Are investment advisors going to be replaced by machine learning artificial intelligence?

Over the years, there have been inventions and technological advancements that we’ve been told will make investment advisors obsolete. This includes mutual funds, ETFs, robo-advisors, zero-commission trades, and trading apps that users sometimes play like a video game. Despite these creations designed to help more people successfully manage their finances and invest in the markets, demand for financial advisors has actually grown. Will AI be the technology that kills the profession? We explore this question below.

Increasing Need for Financial Professionals

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), “Employment of personal financial advisors is projected to grow 15 percent from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations.” Some of the drivers of the increased need include longevity which is expanding the years and needs during retirement, uncertain Social Security, a better appreciation toward investing, and an expected wealth transfer estimated to be as high as $84 trillion to be inherited by younger investors. As birthrates have decreased over the decades in the US, the wealth that will be passed down to younger generations will be shared by fewer siblings, and for many beneficiaries, it may represent a sum far in excess of their current worth.

With more people living into their 90s and beyond, and Social Security being less certain, an understanding of the power of an investment plan, and a lot of newly wealthy young adults to occur over the next two decades, the BLS forecast that the financial advisor profession will grow faster than all other professions, is not surprising.

Will AI Replace Financial Planners?

Being an investment advisor or other financial professional that helps with managing household finances is a service industry. It involves reviewing data, an immense number of options, scenario analysis, projections, and everything that machine learning is expected to excel at within a short time. Does this put the BLS forecast in question and wealth managers at risk of seeing their practice shrink?

For perspective, I reached out, Lucas Noble of Noble Financial Group, LLC (not affiliated with Noble Capital Markets, Inc. or Noble Financial Group, Inc. – creator of Channelchek). Mr. Noble is an Investment Advisor representative (IAR), a Certified Financial Planner (CFP), and holds the designations of Accredited Estate Planner (AEP), and Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC). Noble believes that AI will change the financial planner’s business, and he has enthusiastically welcomed the technology.

On the business management side of running a successful financial advisory business, Noble says, “New artificial intelligence tools could help with discussions and check-ins so that clients are actually in closer touch with his office, so he becomes aware if they need anything.” He has found that it helps to remind clients of things like if they have a set schedule attached to their plan, he added, “the best plan in the world, if not implemented, leaves you with nothing.” AI as a communications tool could help achieve better results by keeping plans on track.

On the financial management side of his practice, he believes there will never be a replacement for human understanding of a household’s needs. While machine learning may be able to better characterize clients, there is a danger in pigeonholing a person’s financial needs too much, as every single household has different needs, and the dynamics and ongoing need changes, drawn against external economic variations, these nuances are not likely to be accessible to AI.

Additionally, he knows the value of trust to his business. People want to know what is behind the decision-making, and they need to develop a relationship with someone or a team they know is on their side. He knows AI could be a part of decision making and at times trust, but doesn’t expect the role of a human financial planner is going away. Lucas has seen that AI  instead adds a new level of value to the advisor’s services, giving them the power to provide even more insightful and personalized advice to help clients reach their financial goals. Embracing proven technology has only helped him better serve, and better retain clients.

AI Investing for IAs

Will AI ever be able to call the markets? Noble says, it’s “crazy to assume that it is impossible.” In light of the advisors’ role of meeting personally with clients, counseling them on their own finances, and plans, perhaps improving on budgets, and deciding where insurance is a preferred alternative, AI can’t be ignored in the role of a financial planner.

Picking stocks, or forecasting when the market may gain strength or weaken, doesn’t help without the knowledge to apply it to individuals whose situation, expectations, and needs are known to the advisor.

Take Away

Artificial intelligence technology has been finding its way into many professions. Businesses are finding new ways to streamline their work, answer customers’ questions, and even know when best to reach out to clients.

The business of financial planning and wealth management is expected to grow faster than any other profession in the coming decades. Adopting the technology for help in running the communications side of the business, and as new programs are developed, scenario analysis to better gauge possible outcomes of different plans, could make sense to some. But this is not expected to replace one-on-one relationships and the depth of human understanding of a household’s situation.

If you are a financial advisor, or a client of one that has had an experience you’d like to share, write to me by clicking on my name below. I always enjoy reader insight.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

A special Thank you to Lucas J. Noble, CFP®, ChFC®, CASL®, AEP®, Noble Financial Group, Wakefield, MA.

Sources

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/business-and-financial/personal-financial-advisors.htm#:~:text=in%20May%202021.-,Job%20Outlook,on%20average%2C%20over%20the%20decade.

https://money.usnews.com/careers/best-jobs/financial-advisor#:~:text=with%20their%20clients.-,The%20Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics%20projects%2015.4%25%20employment%20growth%20for,50%2C900%20jobs%20should%20open%20up.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2023/03/09/the-great-wealth-transfer-will-radically-change-financial-services/?sh=e7f9e7c53393

https://www.cerulli.com/press-releases/cerulli-anticipates-84-trillion-in-wealth-transfers-through-2045

What Can You Learn From the Short Interest in a Stock?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Using Short Interest as an Evaluation Tool

Not everyone involved in the stock market are buying stocks in expectation of them rising. Some market participants are selling, in the expectation that the price will fall. This selling is one of many factors impacting a stocks current price – and could influence future moves. Understanding short interest in a stock that you are active with may provide trading ideas or send warning signs.  Below we define short interest, its impact on stock prices, where to look to find the short interest on a particular company, how the information is used, and of course, risks.

What Short Interest Is

Short interest refers to the total number of shares of a particular stock that have been sold short by investors. In simple terms, when an investor “shorts” a stock, they borrow shares from a broker and sell the borrowed shares in the stock market. If all goes well, they buy the shares back in the future, then return them to the broker along with the interest cost (rebate rate) of the borrowed amount.  

Short interest is expressed as a percentage or a number, indicating the total shorted shares relative to the stock’s total float or outstanding shares.

What it May Do to the Stock Price

There is more than one possible meaning of a stock having high short interest. One is that the high percentage of short stock outstanding could mean that there is a large number of investors betting against the stock’s performance. This suggests a bearish sentiment and potential bearishness regarding the stock’s future price moves. If many market players continue to remain bearish, the high or escalating short interest can put downward pressure on the stock’s price.

Conversely, a low short interest might suggest a positive sentiment among investors or confidence in the stock’s future performance. It shows the stock has limited potential for a short squeeze, where short sellers are forced to cover positions and the buying causes the price to rise.

How to know the Short Interest of a Stock

Investors can find short-interest information through many sources, online brokerage platforms, financial news websites, and some stock market research portals. Notable financial websites often provide this data alongside other relevant stock information. Additionally, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires institutional investors to disclose their short positions in certain cases, making this information publicly available.

Example of Short Interest Reported on a Popular Brokerage Platform

The short interest of GameStop (GME) on this day was 20.78% of outstanding float (Source: TD Ameritrade)

Trading With Short Interest Information

Knowing if the short-interest in a company is trending higher, lower, or is stagnant is more helpful than a snapshot of one day’s percentage.

The short interest data can be traded on in a few ways. High short interest can serve as a contrarian indicator. If an investor believes the company has good prospects and it has a high short interest, a price-moving short squeeze could occur if positive news unfolds or strong financial performance triggers buying. This scenario can push short sellers, that are perhaps faced with margin calls, to cover their positions rapidly, resulting in a sharp upward movement in price.

The use as a gauge in market sentiment toward the company, and which way it is trending, can allow you to understand investor behavior over a period of time toward the stocks. Combine this with other fundamental and technical analysis, and short interest data can aid in improving your probability of either a successful trade or successfully avoiding a potential problem.

Short Interest Not Definitive

While short interest can provide valuable insights, it is crucial to understand the risks involved. Short interest data alone is rarely enough to be the sole basis for an investment decision. It is important to conduct or gather comprehensive research and analysis of the stock’s fundamentals, industry trends, and market conditions. Evaluating short interest comes after higher level filtering of a company’s prospects.

Remember, short interest size and trend might not always accurately reflect the actual market sentiment. Market dynamics can change rapidly, and short sellers might cover their positions quickly, resulting in a shift in the stock’s performance. Therefore, investors should consider short-interest data as just one piece of the puzzle and not solely rely on it for investment decisions.

Take Away

Short-interest statistics hold a role in providing insights into market sentiment and potential investment probabilities. Investors can find short-interest information through various sources, enabling them to assess market sentiment and potential short squeezes. However, it is best to use short-interest data in conjunction with comprehensive research and analysis, as it should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. More informed investment choices, it stands to reason, lead to a higher likelihood of success or avoiding failure. By understanding short interest and its implications, investors can enhance their understanding of either a stock, or even the market in the aggregate.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Traders that Find They No Longer Can Monitor the Markets All Day, Might Try This

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Should You Use Stop-Limit Orders?

Would you have better results if you used stop-limit orders in your stock market transactions?

Retail traders are finding there are fewer hours where they can watch stock prices. If you aren’t always monitoring your portfolio, but you have predefined entry and exit scenarios, and you aren’t yet using this order type, you may want to consider it. Novice to advanced investors enter potential trades this way for a number of reasons including to automate trading, locking in profits, and minimizing losses.

Stop-Limit Order Characteristics

 Stop orders become automatically triggered as a live order once a set price has been reached. It is then a market order and is expected to be filled at the current market price. The stop order is filled in its entirety, even if that means there are different prices for various pieces of the order.

Limit orders are orders that are set at a target price. The order is only executed when the stock hits the limit price or at a price that is considered even more preferred than the account holder’s limit price. If price movements cause the price to move against the initial limit price, even after it receives a partial fill, the order will stop executing.

By combining the two orders, stop orders and limit orders, the investor doesn’t place as much control in the market, instead they retain some level of precision to help follow their plan.

Stop-Limit Order Usage

The primary reason a trader will enter a stop-limit order is to have precise control over when the order should be sent out to be filled. A possible downside with all limit orders is that the trade may never get executed if the stock does not reach the stop price during the specified time period.

A stop-limit order requires the setting of two price points, both the stop price and the limit price. This makes sense for those that don’t wish to get filled in a volatile market at a price in the opposite direction of the stop. The trader first sets a stop price, which is the price they want the trade to be triggered. Then, the limit price they want to execute at is set. This price is used to limit the maximum price they will pay or the minimum price they will receive if the trade is executed.

A time frame must also be set during which the stop-limit order is considered executable.

The stop-limit order will be executed at a specified price, or better after a given stop price has been reached. Once the stop price is reached, the stop-limit order becomes a limit order to buy or sell at the limit price or better. This type of order is an available option with nearly every online broker.

Downside

It’s important to note that stop-limit orders do not guarantee that your trade will be executed. If the price of the security drops quickly or there is a gap in trading, the order may not be filled at the desired limit price or at all. This may result in missed opportunities for profit should the appropriate prices not be targeted.

Opportunity cost can be another downside. There is no guarantee that the stock will ever reach the price of execution. In the meantime, you may not be acting on other opportunities as you wait to see if the market will go your way.

And, what does happen from time to time, if the price gaps or moves quickly, the order may not be executed at all. This can be especially problematic in fast-moving markets where prices are volatile.

There are retail and professional traders that know about stop-limit orders, would benefit, yet get lazy, or figure they are watching it trade by trade so they’ll just pull the trigger when need be. This leaves open the chance they may not execute their strategy.  

Upside

With a stop-limit order, you control the price at which you enter or exit a position. This means that you can set a limit price that is higher or lower than the stop price, depending on whether you are buying or selling. This gives investors greater control over the execution price and allows the order to go in before the stock reaches it, which makes it more likely their order will be closer to the front of the line.

You need not watch it. The orders will automatically be sent when the stop price is reached. This means that you don’t have to monitor the market constantly and can let the order execute on its own. This is useful for more passive investors.

More sophisticated strategies can also benefit. Stop-limit orders can be used in a variety of trading strategies, including day trading, swing trading, and position trading. They can be used to enter or exit a trade, and they can be used for both long and short positions. This flexibility makes stop-limit orders a versatile tool for traders regardless of the style of trading that investor wants to adopt.

Take Away

Many self-directed investors found they had ample time to monitor their trade orders during the Covid lockdowns and they now are trying to continue to be active in the markets. The characteristics of the stop-limit order may help them stay active.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Unhyped Information to Improve Investment Success

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Retail Traders Looking in the Right Place, Never Had it So Good

Do you feel like every time you buy a stock, it goes down? You’re not alone, it’s a common complaint. Yet there’s a large universe of industries, companies, and ideas to choose to invest in. And at the same time, a flood of people who make a living telling you where you should invest. So why do so many investors buy after a run-up, perhaps even at the high, then watch their holdings languish?

Part of the problem may be in how the self-directed investor, consumes information. Watching investment news, digesting a fast-talking influencer’s words, or being told which moving average to rely on is, at best a good start to knowing what the masses are seeing, but taking time away from the hype, and absorbing well-presented material, data, and other information will provide a better look at companies in a way that could help prevent the late-in-the-trade buys that retail investors are known for.

Multiple Sources of Investment Information

When it comes to making investment decisions, the probability of success should increase if you take a look from different angles by using a few sources of trusted information. Beginner investors learn quickly that, if success was as easy as just buying your favorite TV stock pickers love of day, viewers of shows like Mad Money on CNBS would all be rich. It clearly doesn’t work that way.

But if you’re not prone to acting on hype, watching stockpickers fall in and out of love, every show is entertaining. If you are prone to hype, as most humans are, you have to be suspicious of anyone who has to come up with a stock or two for each show (or article). Then speak or write about it with a convincing and engaging style. Keep in mind, viewers or readers are their customers, they lose customers if they’re boring, they gain customers by instilling hope. Yet, as a person who managed billions in institutional funds, I can attest to you that most days, it is best to sit on your hands, monitor your current holdings, and keep scouring resources for high-probability stocks to watch.

Celebrity CEOs

Another problem with mainstream media’s financial news is the coverage universe is typically only familiar household names. You can turn on Fox Business, read the Wall Street Journal, or even Yahoo Finance and expect that on any given day there will be information on Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft, and they’ll be highlighting celebrity CEOs of similar companies. As mentioned earlier, there is a large universe of stocks to choose from. If the only stocks that have your attention are the huge names, largely held by funds and transacted by Wall Street’s most powerful, you could be in the same position you’d be in if you came down from the stands at a pro basketball game and played for a couple of quarters. You’re considered lucky if you put any points on the board.

Broadening your watchlist stocks to include companies that you have to search for, because they aren’t hyped, may include making a few additions to your stock market news, information, and analysis regimen.

News Information and Analysis

In addition to the traditional sources for investment ideas, including TV market analysts, stock picking columnists, and any paid-for advertorial seen on even big name financial websites and publications. You may wish to explore lesser-known companies and review emotionless equity investment research. Outside of stock research, you may find an appealing company you never heard of by viewing videos that invite you to “Meet the CEO” and listen to someone who knows the company better than anyone. If you’re in a metropolitan area, you may get on an email list to see what roadshows are within driving distance so you can attend and better understand an opportunity. Investors who aren’t near financial hubs that attract roadshows can still benefit from face-to-face presentations, including questions and answers at an investor conference geared toward their interests.

Investment Research

Receiving up-to-date research from analysts that never forget they have a reputation to maintain used to be difficult for retail investors. It was expensive to subscribe to financial firms’ research, and with good reason. Large investor’s could afford it because they stood to benefit most from the insights, justifying the cost. And the firm doing the research and setting the price was justified because maintaining a staff of analysts is expensive. But it kept a lot of good info from smaller players. This has evolved recently and become more fair.

The availability of quality stock research began to fall off last decade as regulatory bodies began making rules on who can provide valuable research, based on financial licenses, company registrations, and compensation arrangements.

Equity research that was once paid for by subscribers, has now taken a similar path as “free” trading apps. Retail customers, or institutional are not the ones paying for it, in many cases, the company that wants to be evaluated is. This is called company-sponsored research or CSR.

There are a number of firms that now provide this investor service, Channelchek, with the expertise of the equity analysts at Noble Capital Markets, is the largest provider of CSR in North America.

So no hype investment research is available, and more companies are recognizing how it helps interest in their stock if investors have trusted sources evaluating their business.

Video Presentations

While it isn’t hard to find the CEO of Tesla or many other mega-cap companies talking about their plans, the CEO’s of the thousands of less celebrated, often higher potential, companies have to be sought out and there has to be a means to understand their plans, ideas, and expectations. Technology has helped solve some of this. In fact YouTube and similar platforms has opened the floodgates to information on everything from fixing your air conditioner, to how to braid hair. While there are many video presentations best avoided, presentations direct from company management, in a six months or younger video, can provide tremendous insight, and confidence to pull the buy trigger, or even confidence to decide not to.

A large selection of content of this type can be found in Channelchek’s Video Library.  

In-Person Roadshows

A roadshow is essentially management of a company, getting out of their office and meeting in different towns with investors. This could be done individually, perhaps at a financial institutions office, or in a reserved area in a public restaurant or other venue. This is particularly interesting as not only do investors get to look the person presenting directly in the eye, they benefit from questions being asked from all the other interested investors – they often have a great question you hadn’t thought of.

While every firm that conducts road shows has its own way of getting the word out, Noble Capital Markets organized roadshows list their calendar of roadshows on Channelchek.

Investment Conferences

While roadshows are great if it’s a company you want to hear from, and if it is convenient, a conference with many interesting companies, and perhaps in a vacation destination, can really help investors in a few short days hear many management presentations, ask questions and listen to other’s questions, and meet and network with investors of all levels. These events tend to be held in vacation destinations, so self-directed investors tend to bring family members, and professionals can spend a productive day of work enjoying a beautiful change of scenery.

I won’t even try to hide that I have a favorite conference.

Each year Noble Capital Markets puts on a popular two or three day investor event called NobleCon. Now in its 19th year, it attracts companies with interesting stories and business models from various industries, and professional and retail investors from three continents.

Now in its 19th year, NobleCon19 will be held in Late Fall 2023. The plans are pretty hush, but the opportunities for presenting companies and those looking to enhance their portfolios, I’m told, will be even greater than previous NobleCons. That’s a high hurdle.

Take Away

Understanding that the person on TV saying a stock is a buy, sell, or hold is, in a way, part of a reality TV show that needs to entertain to retain an audience, could improve your investment performance. Much of what is written is the same. Frankly, most days, there is little or nothing worth acting on, but they aren’t going to tell you this – it’s just not in their best career interest.

Alternative sources of ideas and information involve less hype and include, company- sponsored research, management discussions on video, roadshows, and investment conferences.

Most years there are many opportunities, most of these are under the radar companies that, even after they do well, are still under the radar. The ability to find these companies is becoming easier to all investors, but not if they are not looking for it.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Why a Recent Housing Survey Returned Such Extreme Results

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Home Buying Versus Home Selling Conditions

The underlying dynamics of the housing market are not what one might expect. Especially with home prices still near its peak after mortgage rates more than doubled over the past year and a half. One of the unique nuances of today’s housing market is what some are calling the “golden handcuffs” that may apply to anyone who has a home with a mortgage of 3.5% or lower. These owners are slow to sell; this is keeping a supply of homes off the market. The lack of homes for sale is keeping prices up despite the higher cost of borrowing. As witnessed in a monthly survey conducted by Fannie Mae, the attitudes of adults in the U.S., as it relates to buying, or selling, are fairly extreme, with many of the survey responses hit all-time highs and lows in terms of expectations.

Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey

The National Housing Survey (NHS) is a monthly temperature check of attitudes among the general population related to home-owning, renting, household finances, and confidence in the economy. Each respondent is asked more than 100 questions; this makes the survey far more detailed than other measures of housing attitudes or expectations. Six of the questions are used to derive the Home Purchasing Sentiment Index (HPSI).

The overall economy typically benefits from housing turnover, as new buyers decorate and make a house, or condo, a home.

Below is the noteworthy response data from the six questions Fannie Mae uses for its index.

Home Purchase Sentiment Index  (HPSI)

Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased in May by 1.2 points to 65.6. The HPSI is down 2.6 points compared to the same time last year.

Below are the May statistics on some of the most relevant questions.

Good/Bad Time to Buy:

The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 23% to 19%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 77% to 80%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased by 7 percentage points month over month.

Good/Bad Time to Sell:

The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home increased from 62% to 65%, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell decreased from 38% to 34%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell increased 8 percentage points month over month.

Source: Fannie Mae NHS Data Release

Home Price Expectations:

The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months increased from 37% to 39%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down decreased from 32% to 28%. The share who think home prices will stay the same increased from 31% to 33%. As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up increased 6 percentage points month over month.

Mortgage Rate Expectations:

The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 22% to 19%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from 47% to 50%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same remained unchanged at 31%. As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months decreased five percentage points month over month.

Job Loss Concern:

The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from 79% to 77%, while the percentage who say they are concerned increased from 21% to 22%. As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job decreased three percentage points month over month.

Household Income:

The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased from 24% to 20%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from 11% to 12%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same increased from 64% to 67%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased five percentage points month over month.

Spring is typically a time when people look to buy homes. With summer less than two weeks away, many who might have purchased a new home opted to wait, or could not find what they were looking for. “As we near the end of the spring homebuying season, the latest HPSI results indicate that affordability hurdles, including high home prices and mortgage rates, remain top of mind for consumers, most of whom continue to tell us that it’s a bad time to buy a home but a good time to sell one,” said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist.

“Consumers also indicated that they don’t expect these affordability constraints to improve in the near future, with significant majorities thinking that both home prices and mortgage rates will either increase or remain the same over the next year. Notably, the same factors impacting affordability may also be affecting the perceived ease of getting a mortgage. This was particularly true among renters: 81% believe it would be difficult to get a mortgage today, matching a survey high,” according to Palim.

Take Away

Consumers don’t expect housing affordability to improve anytime soon. At the same time, and for related reasons, rents have increased. As with most markets, one would expect if the buyers step back, prices might come down in response. An odd dynamic at play now, though, is that many people that are in a home, are staying put because moving might mean saying goodbye to a mortgage rate near 3% and then having to secure one that is nearly five percentage points higher.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

When Shorting a Stock Becomes Illegal

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Crossing the Line into Naked Short Selling

Shorting a stock by itself is not illegal and can even be thought of as helping the liquidity in the company’s shares as many more continuously change hands (volume). Brokers and institutional investors can also reap additional benefits. For all participating investors, it allows the opportunity for money to be made as long as the stock is moving up or down. However, among the legal shorts, there are illegal short positions being made. This has been the subject of controversy, Volkswagen in 2008, GameStop 2021, and AMC which has worked to end attempts of this kind of activity in its stock.

The Upside-Downside of Legal Short Selling

Selling a stock that you don’t own puts you, the seller at a greater risk than buying a stock. The reason is simple, stocks can theoretically go up by an infinite amount, however, they can only go down by their current value. If your shorts go up, you are losing value in your position. With this risk in mind, selling shares you don’t own, or a shorting strategy, certainly can work in your favor if your risk management short-circuits are in place and the stock’s value erodes.

A legal short position involves your broker borrowing shares on your behalf, perhaps from a large institutional holder, paying them a daily accrual rebate rate (interest) during the period that you hold the short position. The strategy is to buy them back at a lower price in the future than what you sold them at today.

Crossing the Line to Naked Short Selling

The word “naked” when it comes to most investments, suggests that you are without that which you are trading. If the same amount of shares has been borrowed on your behalf or by you as part of your short transaction, you are not naked in the position.

Naked shorting is the illegal practice of short selling shares that have not been affirmatively determined to exist. This can happen when there are so many market players thinking shares will decline in value that more shares are sold than obtainable to back up each trade.

Despite the SEC making this illegal after 2008 in response to some failing investment banks that had been sold beyond the number of shares in existence, naked shorting still goes on today.

One example still fresh in many self-directed investors’ minds is GameStop (GME) shares. In 2021, traders reportedly sold short around 140% of GME shares outstanding. This meant a substantial amount of shares of the company were sold that didn’t exist. What allowed these trades go through was something called ‘phantom’ sales, the tool of naked short selling.

Phantom Sales?

The term “phantom sales” sounds even more nefarious than “naked shorts.” What it means, is that the naked short sellers deposited digital IOUs into buyers’ accounts, promising that they will locate shares and make good delivery to the buyer as soon as possible. Unfortunately, it can become impossible when more shares are sold than exist. That creates a failure to deliver or simply “FTD” which is used in a hashtag that most that follow AMC Theatres (AMC) are familiar with.

When a stock gets oversold to the point of more shares sold than exist, it can be very bullish for the holders. This is because the short sellers desperately need to make good on their IOUs held by buyers.

If buying demand picks up in the stocks, the short positions are considered to be getting “squeezed” –  a “short squeeze” is taking place.

In the case of GME, communication made better through social media channels and stock message boards allowed individual investors to loosely coordinate and heighten the squeeze on short sellers, including large institutional hedge funds that may have had naked short positions.

Naked Shorts Banned

Imagine the problems and stress that occurs when trades don’t settle on time due to naked short-selling delivery failures.

The SEC banned the practice of naked short-selling in the United States in 2008 after the financial crisis. The ban applies to naked shorting only and not to other short-selling activities. Prior to the ban, in 2007 the regulator amended a 2005 rule called Regulation SHO. The amendment limits possibilities for naked shorting by removing loopholes that existed for some broker-dealers in 2007. Regulation SHO requires lists to be published that track stocks with unusually high trends in failing to deliver (FTD) shares.

These lists are available to investors and often used to determine where activity may become frantic.

A variant that is not banned, or in violation of SEC is rules is an FTD where the shares were located, but there is a legitimate failure to deliver. That is the short seller contacted a holder (usually through a broker) and they both agreed to terms of the short-seller borrowing authentic shares of the company.

Take Away

Short selling is a normal function of trading and not frowned upon by the regulators. However you have to be in touch with shares that are available for you to borrow at an agreed-upon interest rate. Otherwise you may find you are naked selling because you don’t own the shares, and can not make delivery.  

These rules apply to stocks that trade on a national exchange. For those stocks not listed on a major securities exchange, the SEC may require more disclosure from the transacting broker.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Stocks 101: The Basics of Investing in the Stock Market

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Need-to-Know for Those Starting to Dip Their Dough into the Stock Market

Maybe you’ve saved a little and know you ought to invest, or maybe school is finally out and you have time and a few dollars to build your future, but you don’t think you know enough about the world of stock market investing. It’s easy to feel overwhelmed by the abundance of information? It’s a big decision with many mysteries and unknowns for both newcomers, and veterans. This article aims to remove much of the mystery for new investors so you can be more confident in building a portfolio that can enhance your life plans.

Whether you become interested in small-cap stocks, growth stocks, or even IPOs, understanding key concepts such as valuing a stock, risk tolerance, investment goals, investment style, risk management, and portfolio strategy is crucial. Let’s dive in!

Set Investment Goals

Clearly defining your investment goals is essential so you can make decisions after comparing them to those goals. Are you investing for retirement, saving for a down payment on a house, or aiming for short-term gains? Your goals will influence the investment strategies you use. For example, if you’re investing for retirement and have decades of working years left, it may mean to buy and mostly hold for a long period stocks that have more potential given a long time horizon. This wouldn’t totally exclude mature companies with large market capitalizations but may include far more small and microcap opportunities than someone that is just a few years from retirement. If you are closer to retirement and don’t have as long for the growth to play out, the strategy may be to invest in large companies with stable dividends. If they throw off enough income, then an allocation of more speculative growth opportunities may make sense. This portfolio portion can allow for further growth.

Define Your Risk Tolerance

Before swimming in the deep end of investing, it’s important to assess your risk tolerance. Ask yourself how comfortable you are with potential fluctuations in stock prices. Small-cap stocks and microcaps, which represent companies with smaller market value, often offer greater growth potential, but they also come with increased volatility. Growth stocks, however, are known for their potential high returns over time, of course this could come with the cost of more volatility (sharp price moves) than established “blue-chip” stocks. Knowing your risk tolerance, or uneasiness with losing, or riding out drawdowns, versus gaining more than the potential loss (risk/reward tolerance) will help you make investment decisions aligned with your comfort level.

Determine Your Investment Style

After assessing your risk tolerance and setting goals, determine your investment style. Some investors prefer a more hands-on approach, engaging in frequent trading and closely monitoring stock market trends and evaluating stocks through websites like Channelchek. Others may prefer a more passive approach, investing in broad-based index funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that provide diversification across various stocks. Understanding your investment style will help shape your overall investment strategy.

Minimizing Risk

Investing inherently involves risk, but there are strategies to help minimize potential losses. One approach is to conduct thorough research on companies you’re considering for investment. This includes analyzing company-sponsored research, equity research reports, and equity analysis provided by reputable sources. Understanding the financial health, competitive advantages, and growth prospects of a company can help you make informed investment decisions.

Developing an Investment Portfolio Strategy

Diversification is considered key when it comes to building an investment portfolio. Investing in a variety of stocks across different sectors and market capitalizations, including small-cap stocks and growth stocks, can help spread risk and potentially increase returns. Consider allocating a portion of your portfolio to IPOs if you have a higher risk appetite. However, it’s important to exercise caution as IPOs can be volatile shortly after their public debut.

Stay Informed

Keeping up with investment news is vital for any investor. Stay updated on market trends, company announcements, and economic indicators that may impact the stock market. Many financial news outlets provide lists of “stocks to watch” or provide insights into market trends. Regularly reviewing investment news and equity research can help you stay informed, make timely investment decisions, and expose you to opportunities you may not have discovered otherwise.

Take Away

Knowing it is time to start building an investment portfolio is a good first step. Now may be the when you should implement, especially if you have a long road ahead of you and financial security is important. It will require careful consideration of your risk tolerance, investment goals, investment style, risk management techniques, and portfolio strategy. Be prepared to conduct research, analyze equity reports, and stay informed about market developments. Investing is ordinarily long-term, patience, discipline, and a well-structured portfolio are key to achieving your financial objectives.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

What Investors in Stocks Can Learn from Index Investors

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Why Aggregate Portfolio Return is More Important than Any Single Holding

Have you ever agonized over a stock in your portfolio that is not performing as you had hoped? While it’s the nature of investing to not bat 1000, it can be hard not to think of the decision to have bought it as a mistake. It probably isn’t. Here is a better way to look at it that uses a recent example (June 1, 2023).

On the first day of June, investors in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) found themselves up 1.17%. That’s a decent run in one day, and since they are focused on the indexed fund that they are invested in as one investment (not 100), they are content and confident.

But what if they owned the underlying 100 stocks in the fund instead? They might be kicking themselves for having bought Lucid (LCID), or 22 other holdings that are down. Using Lucid as an example, it is lower by 15.6% (June 1); the day before it closed at $7.76, and it is only worth $6.55 today.

Ouch? Or no big deal?

The overall blend of the portfolio is up, yet at the same time, 23 holdings are down – no big deal – this is the way portfolio investing works. In fact ten of the stocks in the NDX declined by more than the 1.17% the overall portfolio is up. Most index fund investors just look at one number and don’t look under the hood for reasons to feel remorse (or glee).

Aggregate Return

There are many reasons investors, even professional financial advisors, avoid building a portfolio with individual stocks, but choose index funds. One is not taking responsibility. If you own, or if an investment manager buys a mix of stocks that are in total up a respectable amount, yet some are underperformers, laggards and drags on the overall portfolio performance, there is a feeling of responsibility for the holdings that are down, the dollar amount lost, and the drag on return that is staring them in the face possibly causing sleepless nights.

On this one day, almost 25% of the Nasdaq 100 was down while the index was up 1.17%. The biggest gainer, PDD Holdings (PDD), is only up by half the percentage of LCID’s is selloff. Yet those looking at the aggregate return and not individual return are feeling mighty good about themselves. And that’s good.

If you hold a portfolio of stocks and did your research, whether it be fundamental analysis, technical analysis, industry trends, etc., and understand why every stock is in your portfolio, you could easily be better off if you learn not to agonize over losers. The returns in most of the last five years in index funds have come because of the weighting of the stocks that have gained, not by having more winners. It has become normal for an index that is up on the year to have been carried by just a dozen or so stocks that are in the mix.

Don’t Undermine Your Portfolio

Investors can negatively impact their performance by focusing too much on one stock. When this happens, they can make bad decisions, some of these decisions might be pain-related, others ego, either way, rational decisions are based on investment probabilities, not human emotions, or overthinking; these can ruin good decisions that would have led to improved returns.

Other investors undermine their portfolio differently, by not wanting the responsibility. They buy the index, and they are done – its out of their hands. If average returns are their goal, they’ve succeeded. Or if they are a financial professional and separating themselves from responsibility is the objective, index funds allow them to blame “the market”; it isn’t their fault – they have succeeded.

If an investor can overcome both of these, they can manage their own holdings and be as or more content than an index fund investor. If they follow good portfolio management strategies including, diversification, analysis, research, etc., and then mainly focus on aggregate return, they can make bette decisions and lose less sleep. Individual stocks don’t matter as much when you are purposeful when choosing holdings. Most large indexed funds aren’t purposeful, they aren’t intended to be investments, there makeup is formulaic and meant to mimic the market, not provide stellar returns.  

Take Away

No investor bats 1000. Even top portfolios may have more losers than winners, the key is to have bigger winners and not overreact or over focus on a few holdings. For investors, a portfolio of individual companies can lead to more mental highs and lows as each stock is a personal decision with great expectations. Avoid this by thinking differently. If those one or two stocks don’t perform as expected, think of all the down stocks in all the index funds that the owners aren’t even paying attention to. All these investors are looking at is one number, aggregate return on all the holdings. Maybe you should too.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Source

Nasdaq Market Activity

Should Investors Expect Ongoing Monetary Policy Tightening Through 2023?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Is the Fed Falling Behind on Slowing the Economy?

Is the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy losing out to inflationary pressures? While supply chain costs have long been taken out of the inflation forecast, demand pressures have been stronger than hoped for by the Fed. One area of demand is the labor markets. While the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to keep prices stable and maximize employment, the shortage of workers is adding to demand-pull inflation as wages are a large input cost in a service economy. As employment remains strong, they have room to raise rates, but if strong employment is a significant cause of price pressures, they may decide to keep the increases coming.

Background

The number of new jobs unfilled increased last month as US job openings rose unexpectedly in April. The total job openings stood at 10.1 million. Make no mistake, the members of the Fed trying to steer this huge economic ship would like to see everyone working. However, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reporting “unemployed persons” at 5.7 million in April as compared to 10.1 million job openings, creates far more demand than there are people to fill the positions. Those with the right skills will find their worth has climbed as they get bid up by employers that are still financially better off hiring more expensive talent rather than doing without.

This causes wage inflation as these increased business costs work their way down into the final cost of goods and services we consume, as inflation.

Where We’re At

The 10.1 million job openings employers posted is an increase from the 9.7 million in the prior month. It is also the most since January 2023. In contrast, economists had expected vacancies to slip below 9.5 million. The increase and big miss by economists’ forecasting increases in job opportunities is a clear sign of strength in the nation’s labor market. This complicates Chair Jerome Powell’s position, along with other Fed members. 

It isn’t popular to try to crush demand for new employees, but rising consumer costs at more than twice the Fed’s target will be viewed as too much.

The Fed says that it is data driven, this data is unsettling for those hoping for a pause or pivot.


The Investment Climate

These numbers and other strong economic numbers that were reported in April, create some uncertainty for investors as most would prefer to see the Fed stimulating rather than tightening conditions.

But the market has been resilient, despite the Feds’ resolve. The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate ten times in the last 14 months. Yet jobs remain unfilled, and the stock market has gained quite a bit of ground in 2023. The concern has been that the Fed may overdo it and cause a recession. While even the Fed Chair admitted this is a risk he is willing to take, he also added that it is easier to start a stalled economy than it is to reel one in and the inflation that goes along with expansion.

So the strong labor market (along with other recent data releases) provides room for the Fed to tighten as there are still nearly two jobs for every job seeker. Additional tightening will eventually have the effect of simmering inflation to a more tolerable temperature. If the Fed overdoes it on the brake pedal, according to Powell, he knows where the gas pedal is.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Demystifying Enterprise Value: Unlocking Opportunities in the Stock Market

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Why Some Investors Evaluate a Stock Using Enterprise Value vs. Market Cap

Stock selection between different companies is always an apples to oranges comparison – even when the companies are in the same industry. But uncovering comparative value among the universe of stocks and other investment options is fundamental to successful investing. So successful stock market investors must sift for certain criteria, these filters are often financial measures. While data such as Earnings Per Share and P/E ratio get a  lot of attention, other metrics may help investors sort and filter to create their watch list, as some companies move toward the investor’s buy list. One of these is Enterprise Value in comparison to Market Capitalization.

Understanding Enterprise Value

Enterprise value (EV) is the total value of a company, defined in terms of its financing. It includes the current market capitalization (share price x shares outstanding) and compares it to the cost to pay off debt, then adds in asset values. The below calculation results in establishing  the company’s enterprise value, indicating what one might think should be the minimum needed to buy the company.

EV=Market Cap+Debt-Cash

The result can be thought of as the potential cost to acquire a business based on the company’s capital structure. As a concept, enterprise value gives you a realistic starting point for what one would need to spend to acquire a public company outright.  In reality, it typically takes a premium to EV for an acquisition offer to be accepted.

Trading Below Enterprise Value

When a company is trading below its enterprise value, it suggests that the market is valuing the company at a price lower than what its underlying assets would be worth if sold separately. In some circumstances, This situation presents investors with potential opportunities and indicates that further research and investigation may be prudent.

A popular example of a company that has traded below EV, or less than the net of its assets and debt, is Apple. The company has had on its books massive amounts of cash, along with longer-term assets, the value less any debt is higher than the market cap (Outstanding Shares x Price Per Share). 

Looking for Potential Buys

There are times when it may be worth considering an investment in a company that is trading below its enterprise value:

Temporary Market Pessimism: Companies may experience short-term setbacks, negative market sentiment, or sector-wide pessimism that leads to their stock price trading below enterprise value. It is important to assess whether the company’s fundamental strengths remain intact despite these challenges. If the negative sentiment appears temporary and the company is expected to rebound, it could be a window of opportunity.

Mispricing and Market Inefficiencies: The stock market is less than perfectly efficient, and mispricings do occur. Investors who identify stocks trading below enterprise value due to market inefficiencies can potentially capitalize on these pricing discrepancies. The investor may have to roll up their sleeves to do more analysis to determine whether the undervaluation is based on actual fundamental weaknesses or if it is a result of temporary market inefficiencies.

Asset-Rich Companies: Companies with significant tangible or intangible assets, such as real estate, patents, or intellectual property, may trade below enterprise value. Investors may find these stocks attractive as the underlying assets can provide a margin of safety and potential upside. Assessing the value and potential monetization of these assets is crucial before considering an investment.

In the case of Apple above, cash is easier to evaluate than real estate, patents, or other assets.

Considering Sellling

While stocks trading below enterprise value can present attractive opportunities, there are circumstances when it may be wise to consider selling.

Fundamental Deterioration: If a company’s underlying financials are weakening, for example, declining sales, increasing debt levels, or increased costs of doing business could indicate a problem. It is important to evaluate whether the company’s operational challenges are likely to persist, as this could impact its ability to sustain value.

Industry Decline or Structural Issues: Some companies trade below enterprise value due to broader industry decline or structural issues specific to the company. If the industry’s prospects are exoeriencing prolonged weakening, or the company faces inherent challenges that limit its growth potential, it may be prudent to sell the stock, even if it appears undervalued based on enterprise value alone.

Take Away

Understanding enterprise value and using it while sifting through opportunities could help bring stocks to the surface that one may not have considered.  

Using EV as an evaluation tool is not a slam dunk, if investing was that easy we’d all be wealthier. However it is a good starting point to isolate stocks and then evaluate why they may be trading below EV. Is it warranted, is it unwarranted?

Let Channelchek be your data source for small and microcap stocks, many of which can be found to be trading below enterprise value. Sign-up for a no-cost account and gain access to information to over 6,000 less talked about companies as well as insightful daily emails.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/enterprisevalue.asp

Young Investor’s Skills are Apparently Well-Suited for Today’s Markets

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

The CFA Institute and FINRA Study on Gen Z Investors Would Put Smiles on Their Parent’s Face

Google’s AI chatbot Bard defines Generation Z, or Gen Z, as “the demographic cohort succeeding Millennials and preceding Generation Alpha.” Broadly, the media use the mid-to-late 1990s as starting birth years and the early 2010s as ending birth years as Gen Z. If one looks at the dates, most had internet in their homes on the day they arrived from the hospital after birth. Technology has advanced since then, and the generation that never knew life without is well-equipped to make it work for them.

Generation Z is considered more proactive about their money than their parents or their parents  parents. A survey by the CFA Institute and FINRA Investor Education Foundation  determined that 60% or 6 out of 10 of the Gen Z population owned at least some investments. Some 41% said they were investing in individual stocks, and 35% in mutual funds. The most popular investment? Crypto.  It was reported that 20% are invested in cryptocurrency and/or non-fungible tokens.

The report clarified that these investors are not yet retirement focused, but instead growing assets to have enough money for traveling or saving for unexpected expenses.

Why Gen Z’s Interest

The FINRA/CFA Institute report gave multiple reasons why young people are getting into investing. These include the ability to learn about investing through social media and other online platforms, the existence of apps that let them invest small amounts, such as through fractional shares, as well as the underlying fear of missing out on a more passive way they could make money.

Top Challenges to Meeting Financial Goals

Source: FINRA Foundation

With many sources easily accessible to this connected generation, Generation Z literally have a world of information in their hand, some of it very good, and some of it is probably worthless or damaging. Social media and internet searches take up the top means of learning about investing for this generation. Still on the subject of learning, they are least likely to talk to a financial professional.

Sources of Information Gen Z Use to Learn About Investing

Source: FINRA Foundation

The FINRA/CFA study drilled down deeper to discover the most popular online sources used by Gen Z  for investor information. The highest on the list is YouTube followed by internet searches. Lowest on this list is Facebook.

Source: FINRA Foundation

Portfolio Size and Nature

The median investor from this generation has an account worth $4,000. The women had smaller accounts averaging $3,000 versus Gen Z men, whose accounts averaged $5,000. 

Investing began very early for some as 25% of Gen Z investors said they began investing before they turned 18. The report indicated that starting at a relatively young age is common in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K.  The technology of today allows investors to start small and trade incrementally, even fractionally. This along with curiosity and comfort with technology, is the driver to the first step.

Source: FINRA Foundation

The report was based on a survey of 2,872 investors and non-investors who were aged 18 to 25, as well as millennial and Generation X investors in the U.S., Canada, U.K., and China.

When first starting out, Gen Z most of these investors (44%) gravitated toward cryptocurrencies, according to the report. The median average they first began investing with is $1,000.

Take Away

The youngest adults are finding themselves motivated to invest, more so than any generation before. The top reason is it is easier for the generation to be involved in the markets. Many trade crypto, and own individual stocks. Video content as well as online searches are the primary sources of investment information.

As an aside, this article prompted me to look at the age demographics provided by Google Analytics for Channelchek. Channelchek provides investor information in both written and video formats. Out of the six age groups that Google tracks, 14% of our site traffic since the beginning of the year is attributable to the Gen Z age group.

Should you have any requests for content, or if you are well-versed in a topic that you think Channelchek readers may benefit from, click my name below to send an email, I’d enjoy speaking with you.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

CFA/FINRA Report (May 2023)

Bard, from Google AI Provided Minor Cross-reference Information

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_of_Generation_Z