Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Gannett Company (GCI)

Why the shares are so appealing.

Gannett Co., Inc. operates as a news and information company. It operates in three segments: Publishing, Digital, and Broadcasting. 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

• Shares up
  26%. Since Dec 31, 2018, shares of GCI are up 26%, which we believe are reflective of the unsolicited takeover bid by MNG Enterprises. Despite the rise, we believe shares of GCI are compelling, offering an attractive total return and favorable risk/reward relationship. 
• Revenue
  trends should stabilize. The secular decline of the publishing industry is well-known. We believe the pace of the revenue declines should moderate given that print advertising accounts for a modest 30.2% of total revenue in 2018 and its digital business continues to grow. We believe that revenues shou… 

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certification and important disclosures included in full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Friday, March 8, 2019

The McClatchy Company (MNI)

Why meeting expectation really doesn’t matter.

The McClatchy Co is
the third-largest newspaper publisher in the United States, operating 30
dailies and approximately 50 nondaily publications in 29 markets nationwide. 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

• Q4 results were largely in line. After adjusting for one week less in this period and real
  estate sales in the prior year quarter, the company met expectations, with cash
  flow down 8.2%, in line with its previous cash flow guidance of down 8% to down
  12%. The bright spot was that Digital only advertising increased a healthy 10%,
  an acceleration from the rate of growth in the year earlier quarter. 
• Crossing into the Digital divide. Management stated that it expects
  digital only advertising to surpass newspaper print advertising in 2019, which
  should help moderate revenue trends. In addition, management expects additional
  saving in operating expenses, bene…
  

  
  
  
  
  

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*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Monday, March 5, 2019

E.W. Scripps (SSP)

Cutting through the noise.

The E.W. Scripps Co.
(www.scripps.com) serves audiences and businesses through a growing portfolio
of television, print and digital media brands. After approval of its
acquisition of two Granite Broadcasting stations later this year, Scripps will
own 21 local television stations as well as daily newspapers in 13 markets
across the United States

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

• Q4 results
  largely in line with raised expectations. The company overachieved revenues with the largest
  upside variance in its lower margin National Media division. The influx of
  Political advertising was already baked in. As such, Q4 adjusted EBITDA was
  slightly lower than expected. 
• First quarter
  guidance is slightly better than our expectations. Reflecting the company’s acquisition of Triton, we are
  raising our Q1 2019 revenue and cash flow estimate to $286.5 million and $27.2
  million from $276.1 million and $25.5 million, respectively. The biggest
  variance to our es…GO TO FULL REPORT

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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Monday, March 4, 2019

Tegna, Inc. (TGNA)

Subscribers count; why this matters.

TEGNA Inc., a media
company, operates a portfolio of broadcast stations and digital sites; and
provides marketing service solutions for businesses. The company operates 46
television stations in 38 markets that produce local programming, such as news,
sports, and entertainment. Its marketing services business provides solutions
for clients on multiple channels, including broadcast, online, and OTT. 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

• Better than
  expected. The company reported fourth quarter results in line
  with previous guidance, exceeding our recently lowered expectations, which
  anticipated an impact from refunds in one of its subsidiaries. Revenues were up
  31% and cash flow was up a strong 63%, above our 29% and 43% growth
  expectations, respectively. Revenues would have been up a stronger 33% without
  the revenue impact of the refunds.
• Stronger
  subscription revenue. Total revenues of $642.1 million came in 1.2% higher
  than our $634.4 million estimate, with cash flow (EBITDA) 4.3% higher, at
  $273.1 million versus our $261.7 million estimate. Subscription revenue was an
  unexpected surprise at $218.5 million versus our $207.3 million estimate, as
  total subsc… 
  
  
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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Friday, March 1, 2019

Gray Television (GTN)

Politically speaking.

Gray Television, Inc.
operates as a television broadcast company in the United States. As of April 6,
2010, it operated 36 television stations in 30 markets, including 17 affiliated
with CBS Inc.; 10 affiliated with the National Broadcasting Company, Inc.; 8
affiliated with the American Broadcasting Company (ABC); and 1 affiliated with
FOX Entertainment Group, Inc. (FOX). 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

 

• Record quarter. The company exceeded our Q4 adj. cash flow (EBITDA)
  expectations on record revenues, bolstered by higher than expected political
  revenues of $83.2 million versus our $81.6 million estimate. The company also
  highlighted the Raycom acquisition, expected cost synergies, and provided 1Q
  2019 guidance. 
• Q4 Revenue and EBITDA
  come in strong.  Record revenues in Q4 2018 of $328.2 million exceeded
  our estimates of $321.1 million. Full year 2018 revenues were $1.084 billion.
  Q4 Adj. EBITDA of $163.5 million beat expectations by 5.4% compar…
  
  
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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Tegna, Inc. (TGNA)

A strong quarter expected, but with a caveat.

TEGNA Inc., a media
company, operates a portfolio of broadcast stations and digital sites; and
provides marketing service solutions for businesses. The company operates 46
television stations in 38 markets that produce local programming, such as news,
sports, and entertainment. Its marketing services business provides solutions
for clients on multiple channels, including broadcast, online, and OTT. 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

RATING: OUTPERFORM

• Q4 preview. The company is expected to report a strong quarter, with revenues up an estimated 29% and cash flow up 43%, a reflection of very strong Political advertising. The results, however, are expected to be shy of the company’s guidance which anticipated 30% to 32% revenue growth. The company will report Q4 results on Friday, March 1st. 
• Q4 impact from Premion. We believe that the quarter will be adversely impacted by refunds at its Premion subsidiary, which did not deliver ads correctly. The company indicated that the issue affected up to 17% of the division’s total revenue, or  $12.8 million, based on our estimates. Our revised Q4 revenue and cash flow estima… 
  
  
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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Cumulus Media (CMLS)

An encouraging preview.

CUMULUS MEDIA, Inc. (NASDAQ: CMLS) is a leading audio-first media and entertainment company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. CUMULUS MEDIA engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 428 owned-and-operated stations across 87 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, the Olympics, the GRAMMYS, the American Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across nearly 8,000 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. CUMULUS MEDIA provides advertisers with local impact and national reach through on-air, digital, mobile, and voice-activated media solutions, as well as access to integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, and live event experiences. CUMULUS MEDIA is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees.

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

RATING: OUTPERFORM

• A Surprising Preview. The company indicated that it plans to report full year 2018 revenues between $1.139 to $1.141 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $232.7 million to $234.7 million, well above our expectations. We believe that high margin Political advertising likely accounts for a big portion of the upside variance. The company plans to report March 18th. 
• Beats our expectations. We conservatively estimated 3.3% revenue growth to $303.6 million for Q4 and $1.134 billion for the full year revenues. Our adjusted EBITDA estimate for Q4 was $57.4 mill… 
  
  
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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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making any investment decision. 

Thursday, February 21, 2019

Gannett Company (GCI)

Still finding ways to cut costs; generating a lot of cash.

Gannett Co., Inc.
operates as a news and information company. It operates in three segments:
Publishing, Digital, and Broadcasting. 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

RATING: OUTPERFORM

• Hits close to the mark. The company largely delivered on Q4 expectations despite weaker than expected Publishing revenue, which was down 14%. The consolidation of three production facilities in 2018, along with labor savings, and concentration on higher margin business, all contributed to the company’s ability to achieve our cash flow estimate. 
• Okay, but, what about this year? We believe that the company has significant flexibility to manage costs again this year, through the benefit of recent voluntary staff cuts and the prospect of the consolida… 
  
  
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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Thursday, February 14, 2019

Cumulus Media (CMLS)

A win,win.

CUMULUS MEDIA, Inc. (NASDAQ: CMLS) is a leading audio-first media and entertainment company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. CUMULUS MEDIA engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 428 owned-and-operated stations across 87 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, the Olympics, the GRAMMYS, the American Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across nearly 8,000 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. CUMULUS MEDIA provides advertisers with local impact and national reach through on-air, digital, mobile, and voice-activated media solutions, as well as access to integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, and live event experiences. CUMULUS MEDIA is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees.

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

RATING: OUTPERFORM

• Strengthening its position. Two transactions were announced that will 1) reduce debt and 2) strengthen its market position. The company sold 6 stations for a combined price of $103.5 million, at an estimated 17 times cash flow. Separately, it swapped stations with Entercom (ETM: Not Rated) to have a developed radio cluster in Indianapolis. 
• Moves viewed favorably. The company has a significant number of under penetrated markets. As such, swapping out of those markets for developed station clusters should increase total company margins. Furthermore, asset…
  
  
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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Monday, February 4, 2019

1-800-Flowers.com, Inc  (FLWS)

On a roll.

Michael Kupinski, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

RATING: MARKET PERFORM

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Friday, February 1, 2019

1-800-Flowers.com, Inc  (FLWS)

Coming up roses.

1-800 Flowers.com Inc
is a United-States-based provider of gourmet food & gift baskets, consumer
floral, and BloomNet wire service. Gourmet food & gift baskets and consumer
floral jointly account for the majority of the company’s total revenue. The
company provides a broad range of merchandise, including fresh flowers,
premium, fruits, popcorn, specialty treats, cookies and baked gifts, premium
chocolates, confectionery, gift baskets, premium English muffins, steaks and
chops, and others.

Michael Kupinski, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for rating. 

• Over delivers quarter. The fiscal second quarter revenues of $571.3 million beat our $552 million estimate and adjusted EBITDA was higher expected ($103.1 million versus our $96.1 million estimate). The standout, for a second straight quarter, was BloomNet, its wire service business, which increased revenues 15% and a strong 7.3% increase in adj. EBITDA.  
• Raised full year guidance. Management raised its fiscal year end 2019 full year guidance from a range of $1209.5 million to $1232.6 million in revenues to $1232.6 million to $1244.1 million in revenues. And, it raised adjusted EBITDA guidance from a range of $77 million to $80 million to a range of $80.0 million to $82.0 million, with E…
  
  
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certification and important disclosures included in full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Tuesday, November 06, 2018

Media Industry Report

Quarterly Newsletter: A better 2019 expected..

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Listen to the Analyst

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