Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Townsquare Media (TSQ)

Will The Company Get The Investor Respect It Deserves?

Townsquare Media Inc is an entertainment and media company offering digital marketing solutions in the United States and Canada. It owns and operates radio stations, social media properties focusing the small and mid-cap companies. Services offered to the clients include live events, local advertising, digital advertising, e-commerce offerings, few others. 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

• Q1 exceeds expectations. Revenues of $93.7 million in line with our $93 million estimate on the strength of its Digital businesses. Operating cash flow (adj. EBITDA), however, was better than our estimates at $19.5 million (versus our $17.8 million est.) and above its previous guidance of $17.5 million to $18.5 million. The results reflected the absence of its Music Festival business, which is treated as discontinued operations.  
• Digital a big piece of the company. Its Digital business, which grew a strong 20% plus in the latest quarter, now represents approximately 33% of total company revenues. This total sets Townsquare apart from its peers that average digital revenu… 

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Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Cumulus Media (CMLS)

Four Key Takeaways From The Recent Announcement.

Cumulus Media, Inc., a radio broadcasting company, engages in the acquisition, operation, and development of commercial radio stations in mid-size radio markets in the United States. It owns and operates FM and AM radio station clusters that serve mid-sized markets. The company, through its investment in Cumulus Media Partners, LLC, also operates radio station clusters serving large-sized markets. 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

• Another deleveraging transaction. The company announced plans to sell KLOS radio station
  for a favorable $43 million, an estimated multiple of an attractive 8 times
  cash flow. We believe that the net proceeds from the transaction will be
  roughly $39 million, with the proceeds to be used to pay down debt. The
  transaction is expected to close in the third quarter 2019.
• The company also announced plans to swap two of its
  Connecticut radio stations for four stations in Allentown, Pennsylvania,
  strengthening its portfolio of two existing stations in that market and
  complimenting its strong station group in Pennsylvania. The move should enhance
  cash flow margins. 

…

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Monday, March 25, 2019

1-800-Flowers.com, Inc  (FLWS)

Not resting on its florals.

1-800 Flowers.com Inc
is a United-States-based provider of gourmet food & gift baskets, consumer
floral, and BloomNet wire service. Gourmet food & gift baskets and consumer
floral jointly account for the majority of the company’s total revenue. The
company provides a broad range of merchandise, including fresh flowers,
premium, fruits, popcorn, specialty treats, cookies and baked gifts, premium
chocolates, confectionery, gift baskets, premium English muffins, steaks and
chops, and others.

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

• Investor day reinforces strategy. The company held an Investor Day on March 22nd with detailed
  presentations from key management personnel from consumer floral and the
  gourmet food brands. The overall theme, highlighted across each of the business
  segments, were centered around investments in new customer acquisition,
  technological innovations, and increase cross-brand marketing efforts. 
• Holiday revenues strong. The Company provided color on the recent February 2019
  Valentine’s Day holiday period, which displayed continued efforts to gain
  market share. As this holiday time period is primarily heavy in floral
  revenues, bot… 

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Friday, March 22, 2019

Cumulus Media (CMLS)

Raising our price target on a simple premise.

Cumulus Media, Inc., a radio broadcasting company, engages in the acquisition, operation, and development of commercial radio stations in mid-size radio markets in the United States. It owns and operates FM and AM radio station clusters that serve mid-sized markets. The company, through its investment in Cumulus Media Partners, LLC, also operates radio station clusters serving large-sized markets.

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

• Q4 over delivers. The company over delivered on its Q4 despite the
  preannouncement for the quarter. Revenues and adjusted EBITDA were better than
  expected, at $309.2 million and $66.6 million, respectively, compared to our
  revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates of $303.7 million and $57.4 million,
  respectively. The better than expected revenue grow was driven primarily on the
  strength of its digital business and a lift from political advertising. 
• Q1 shows improvement. Management indicated that advertising pacings in Q1
  2019 is improving, better than its preliminary guidance in its preannounced
  fourth quarter. Rev… 
  

  
  
  
  
  

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Thursday, March 21, 2019

E.W. Scripps (SSP)

Planned acquisition positions it among “super” broadcasters.

The E.W. Scripps Co. serves audiences and businesses through a growing portfolio of television, print and digital media brands. After approval of its acquisition of two Granite Broadcasting stations later this year, Scripps will own 21 local television stations as well as daily newspapers in 13 markets across the United States

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

• Moves up the food
  chain. The recent planned acquisition for 8 television stations for
  $580 million, positions the company as among the top tier broadcasters covering
  30% of the nation’s television households. The cash flow multiple of 8.2 times
  our estimated 2020 cash flow is viewed as reasonable given the company’s
  significant platform expansion. 
• Scale is
  important. We believe that covering 30% plus of the nation’s TV
  households is important for enhanced negotiating power with cable and satellite
  providers for Retrans…
  

  
  
  
  
  

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Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Tegna, Inc. (TGNA)

Acquisition indicates that the company is in the game.

TEGNA Inc., a media company, operates a portfolio of broadcast stations and digital sites; and provides marketing service solutions for businesses. The company operates 46 television stations in 38 markets that produce local programming, such as news, sports, and entertainment. Its marketing services business provides solutions for clients on multiple channels, including broadcast, online, and OTT. 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

• Adds a complementary mix. Today, the company announced that it plans to acquire 11
  stations for a combined purchase price of $740 million, which adds a
  complementary mix of stations to some of its top markets, including four
  stations in presidential spending battleground states. We view the move
  favorably. The transaction is expected to close in late 3Q/early 4Q
  2019.   
• Attractive multiple. The company indicated that it will pay an
  attractive 6.7 times (net of tax savings and synergies) on blended 2018/2019 average EBITDA. The transacti…
  

  
  
  
  
  

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Wednesday, March 20, 2019

E.W. Scripps (SSP)

Moves up the food chain.

The E.W. Scripps Co. serves audiences and businesses through a growing portfolio of television, print and digital media brands. After approval of its acquisition of two Granite Broadcasting stations later this year, Scripps will own 21 local television stations as well as daily newspapers in 13 markets across the United States

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

• Adds a nice mix
  of stations. The company announced plans to acquire 8 stations for a
  combined purchase price of $580 million, strengthening some of its current
  markets and enhancing its reach to near 30% of US TV households. We view the
  move favorably. Transaction expected to close late this year. 
• Multiple appears
  a little rich, but not worrisome. the company indicated that it will pay 8.1 times (net
  of tax benefits) on blended 2017/2018 EBITDA of $56 million. We believe that
  the multiple would be a little higher if based on 2018/2019 estimates. Notab…
  

  
  
  
  
  

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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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Monday, March 18, 2019

Tribune Publishing Company (TPCO)

Why Aren’t Investors Paying Attention To This Stock?

Tribune Publishing Co, formerly Tronc Inc is a print and online media company that publishes various newspapers and websites, such as The Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times, Baltimore Sun, San Diego Union-Tribune, and the Orlando Sentinel. The company creates and distribute content across its media portfolio, offering integrated marketing, media, and business services to consumers and advertisers, including digital solutions and advertising opportunities.

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

• First quarter and full year 2019
  guidance, much better than expected. Q1 revenue guidance is $235 million to $240
  million with adj. EBITDA of $18 million and $19 million, better than
  our $212.1 million and $6.5 million estimate, respectively. In addition, full
  year 2019 adj. EBITDA guidance of $100 million to $105 million is better
  than our $84.9 million estimate. The company will cycle through significant
  cost reductions, which largely began in Q4 2018.  
• Upwardly revised 2019 estimates. We raised our Q1 and full year 2019 estimates. Our first
  quarter revenue estimate has been raised from $212.1 million to $235.4 million
  and our adjusted EBITDA (cash flow) estimate has been raised fr… 
  

  
  
  
  
  

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Friday, March 15, 2019

Harte-Hanks (HHS)

A Management Team Eager To Tackle The Tasks At Hand.

Harte-Hanks is a marketing services company that provides multichannel marketing solutions as well as consulting, data analytics, and strategic assessment. The company’s offerings focus on business-to-business, retail, finance, and automotive segments through digital, social, mobile, and print media offerings. 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

• Q4 results anticipated. The Q4 revenue decline was slightly better than expected, providing
  hopeful signs that its businesses are stabilizing. Revenues were $70.2 million
  versus our $68.5 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA was in line with a loss of
  $1.57 million versus our loss estimate of $1.50 million. 
• Adequate liquidity. The company received a tax refund of $4.6 million in
  February, 2019. The company is expected to receive a second $9 million refund
  in the second half 2019. Combined with current cash on hand of $20.6 million,
  the company appears to have ade…

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Thursday, March 14, 2019

Tribune Publishing Company (TPCO)

Behind The Curtain Of The Company’s Surprisingly Good 2019 Guidance.

Tribune Publishing Co, formerly Tronc Inc is a print and online media company that publishes various newspapers and websites, such as The Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times, Baltimore Sun, San Diego Union-Tribune, and the Orlando Sentinel. The company creates and distribute content across its media portfolio, offering integrated marketing, media, and business services to consumers and advertisers, including digital solutions and advertising opportunities.

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

 

• Q4 surprises on
  the upside from previously lowered expectations. While revenues were a little softer than expected at
  $283.5 million versus our $286.6 million estimate, adjusted EBITDA was better,
  $46.5 million versus our $40.3 million estimate. 
• Encouraging print
  ad trends. The company indicated that print ad trends reflected
  significant sequential improvement from down 18% in Q3 to a more moderate down
  12% in Q4. The company anticipates that print ad trends should show moderate as
  it has largely cycl… 

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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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Thursday, March 14, 2019

Townsquare Media (TSQ)

What Will It Take For The Shares To Break Out?

Townsquare Media Inc is an entertainment and media company offering digital marketing solutions in the United States and Canada. It owns and operates radio stations, social media properties focusing the small and mid-cap companies. Services offered to the clients include live events, local advertising, digital advertising, e-commerce offerings, few others.

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

• Over-delivers on Q4.  Revenues were better than expected at $108.9 million versus our $105.1 million estimate, on the strength of its Digital businesses. Operating cash flow (adj. EBITDA) was better than expected at $23.9 million versus our $23.2 million estimate. 
• Provides favorable guidance. The company guided Q1 revenue between $92 million and $94 million (better than our $89.3 million estimate) and adj. EBITDA of $17.5 million to $18.5 million (better than our $17.0 million estimate). Full year revenue guidance of $445 million to $455 million is better than our $428.2 million estimate and adj. EBITDA guida… 

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Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Salem Media Group (SALM)

Why Investors Should Look Past The Soft Q1 Guidance.

Salem Media owns and operates radio stations in metropolitan markets, predominately with a Christian format. The company’s radio business focuses on the clustering of strategic formats, including Christian teaching and talk, contemporary Christian music, conservative news talk, and Spanish language Christian teaching and talk. 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

• Delivered on expectations.  Fourth quarter revenues and cash flow (Adj. EBITDA) of
  $67.19 million and $11.57 million were in line with our expectations of $66.5
  million and $11.55 million, respectively. 
• Soft Q1 guidance does not portend a
  trend. The company anticipates that Q1 revenues will decline between
  3% to 5% with expenses to be down 1% to up 2%. Q1 will be unfavorably impacted
  by the absence of Political advertising, the timing of book releases, the
  Easter shift toward later in the second quarter, and the absence of the full
  impact of expense savings. Subsequent quarters should reflect labor costs
  savi… 

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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Townsquare Media (TSQ)

A Premium Valuation Appears Warranted.

Townsquare Media Inc is an entertainment and media company offering digital marketing solutions in the United States and Canada. It owns and operates radio stations, social media properties focusing the small and mid-cap companies. Services offered to the clients include live events, local advertising, digital advertising, e-commerce offerings, few others.

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.  

• Fourth quarter
  upside surprise. The revenues were better than expected at $108.9 million
  versus our $105.1 million estimate, on the strength of its Digital businesses.
  Operating cash flow (adj. EBITDA) was better than expected at $23.9 million
  versus our $23.2 million estimate. 
• The Digital
  divide.  The company’s digital businesses grew revenue an impressive
  20% plus in 2018 to $120 million. Its Digital businesses represent
  approximately 28% of total company revenues, which sets the company ap… 

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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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making any investment decision.