Thursday, May 23, 2019

The McClatchy Company (MNI)

Is The Slide Over?

The McClatchy Co is the third-largest newspaper publisher in the United States, operating 30 dailies and approximately 50 nondaily publications in 29 markets nationwide. 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

• Option value. We are raising our rating on the MNI shares to
  Outperform for speculative investors based on the prospect of an acceleration
  in debt pare down, stabilizing cash flow and improving debt leverage ratio. 
• Q1 review. Q1 results were below our expectations on both revenues and
  cash flow. The results reflected strategic decisions to increase paywalls for
  its Digital businesses and restructurings. Notably, there were signs of…

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Can we really call videogamers professional athletes?

(Note: companies that could be impacted by the content of this article are listed at the base of the story (desktop version). This article uses third-party references to provide a bullish, bearish and balanced point of view; sources listed in the “Balanced” section)

He’s making about $300,000 a month, he has a fan base numbered in the millions, and he spends at least 12 hours a day playing on his computer. Tyler Blevins, better known by his Fortnite handle “Ninja”, is a superstar in the world of organized, competitive videogaming or eSports. eSports fans tune in via online streaming services to watch professional gamers like Ninja play their favorite videogames in real time. Certain tournaments can attract audiences in the tens of millions attending via live-streaming platforms like YouTube or Amazon’s Twitch to watch gamers compete for cash prizes of up to $25 million. The global appeal of this new form of entertainment has put eSports well on its way to becoming a billion-dollar industry this year. But can videogames really take market share away from traditional sports?

Friday, May 17, 2019

Entravision Communications (EVC)

What We Learned From The Investor Call.

Entravision Communications Corporation is a diversified Spanish-language media company utilizing a combination of television and radio operations to reach Hispanic consumers across the United States, as well as the border markets of Mexico. 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

• Strong cost controls. The quarter benefited from cost cutting which began in April 2018 and which continued through 2019. Importantly, audit fees were $1.2 million in the quarter, a large portion which may be viewed as non recurring. Finally, Direct Operating Expenses and SG&A expenses are expected to be down for 2019.  
• Company provides Q2 pacings. Management indicated that second quarter revenues were pacing up 5% for Television, down 11% for Radio and down 6% for its Digital businesses. While Q2 revenue trends are slightly lower than our expectations, the compa…
  
  

  
  
  

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Thursday, May 16, 2019

Entravision Communications (EVC)

Back On Schedule!

Entravision Communications Corporation is a diversified Spanish-language media company utilizing a combination of television and radio operations to reach Hispanic consumers across the United States, as well as the border markets of Mexico.

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

• Some noise in the first quarter. The Q1 revenues of $ 64.7 million were lighter than our $66.8 million estimate, largely due to softer revenues in its Digital and Radio businesses. TV outperformed our expectations. Cash flow, however, was better than expected even factoring in the one-time costs for auditors of $1.3 million, ($8.1 million versus our $6.7 million estimate). 
• Revenue trends should improve. We believe that the company’s Digital revenues should show some moderation in coming quarters as the company executes on its profitable revenue growth strategy. In addition, Television appears to be doing pretty well. We expect more co… 

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Tuesday, May 14, 2019

E.W. Scripps (SSP)

Resetting Expectations.

The E.W. Scripps Co. serves audiences and businesses through a growing portfolio of television, print and digital media brands. After approval of its acquisition of two Granite Broadcasting stations later this year, Scripps will own 21 local television stations as well as daily newspapers in 13 markets across the United States.

 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

• First quarter results below
  expectations. We chocked up much of the miss to the timing of acquisitions and the confusion over proforma results, something which the company tried to clarify with the recent release of proforma numbers for its Local Media division. Based on our read, expenses seem to be higher than we expected even after adjusting for the timing of acquisitions.
• Second quarter guidance. Proforma second quarter revenues are expected to be slightly lower than our expectations and expenses are expected to be higher. As such, we are lowering our second quarter revenue estimate from $345.5 million to $339.7 million and our adjusted EBITDA estimate from $50.2 mil… 

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Monday, May 13, 2019

Salem Media (SALM)

Revenue Pacings Appear To Improve.

Salem Media Group is America’s leading multimedia company specializing in Christian and conservative content, with media properties comprising radio, digital media and book and newsletter publishing. Each day Salem serves a loyal and dedicated audience of listeners and readers numbering in the millions nationally.

 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

• First quarter comes in as expected. First quarter 2019 revenues and cash flow (Adj. EBITDA) of $60.5 million and $7.6 million, respectively, were in line with our expectations of $61.0 million and $7.3 million, respectively.  
• Second quarter revenue trends improve.  Following favorable management guidance for the 2Q19, we are upwardly revising our revenue estimate and maintaining our second quarter cash flow estimate. We are raising our Q2 revenue estimates from $64.8 million to $65.9 million, and maintaining our adjusted EBITDA estimate at $11.2 milli…
  

  
  
  
  
  

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Friday, May 10, 2019

Cumulus Media (CMLS)

It’s Expected To Get A Little Noisy.

CUMULUS MEDIA, Inc. (NASDAQ: CMLS) is a leading audio-first media and entertainment company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. CUMULUS MEDIA engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 428 owned-and-operated stations across 87 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, the Olympics, the GRAMMYS, the American Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across nearly 8,000 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. CUMULUS MEDIA provides advertisers with local impact and national reach through on-air, digital, mobile, and voice-activated media solutions, as well as access to integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, and live event experiences. CUMULUS MEDIA is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees.

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

• First quarter over delivers. The company over delivered on first quarter 2019 results. Revenues and adjusted EBITDA were better than expected, at $267.5 million and $41.8 million, respectively, compared with our revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates of $264.1 million and $36.7 million, respectively. The favorable growth in revenue was driven primarily on the strength of its digital business.
• Q2 Likely Will Be Noisy. The company indicated that pacings are down slightly in the second quarter in line with our expectations. Notably, the earlier announced radio transact… 

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Friday, May 10, 2019

Tegna, Inc. (TGNA)

Eye on 2020.

TEGNA Inc., a media company, operates a portfolio of broadcast stations and digital sites; and provides marketing service solutions for businesses. The company operates 46 television stations in 38 markets that produce local programming, such as news, sports, and entertainment. Its marketing services business provides solutions for clients on multiple channels, including broadcast, online, and OTT. 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

• First quarter results better than
  expected. Revenues were in line with expectations, $516.7 million versus our estimate of $514.7 million, while cash flow (EBITDA) was better than expected at $149.2 million versus our $143.6 million estimate. The results benefited from stronger than expected Subscription revenue, up a strong 17.5% to $241.6 million. 
• Q2 guidance better than expected. Total company revenue is expected to increase low single digits with total company expenses to be up mid single digits. We are raisin… 

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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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Thursday, May 9, 2019

The McClatchy Company (MNI)

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The McClatchy Company publishes news and information in the United States. Its publications include the Miami Herald, The Kansas City Star, The Sacramento Bee, The Charlotte Observer, The (Raleigh) News and Observer, the (Fort Worth) Star-Telegram, and The (Durham, NC) Herald-Sun. 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

…

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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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making any investment decision. 

Thursday, May 9, 2019

Tribune Publishing Company (TPCO)

Closing The Valuation Gap.

Tribune Publishing Co, formerly Tronc Inc is a print and online media company that publishes various newspapers and websites, such as The Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times, Baltimore Sun, San Diego Union-Tribune, and the Orlando Sentinel. The company creates and distribute content across its media portfolio, offering integrated marketing, media, and business services to consumers and advertisers, including digital solutions and advertising opportunities.

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

• First quarter better than expected. Revenues of $244.5 million came in higher than our $235.4 million estimate, with better than expected print advertising. Notably, print advertising declines moderated from Q4. Cash flow (adj. EBITDA) of $21.3 million also surpassed our $18.3 million expectations. 
• Underlying trends better than expected. Management provided Q2 and full year 2019 guidance that is better than expected. Q2 revenue guidance is $240 million to $245 million, better than our $231.5 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA guidance is $20 mill…

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Thursday, May 9, 2019

Harte-Hanks (HHS)

Not Good, But Not Bad Either.

Harte-Hanks is a marketing services company that
provides multichannel marketing solutions as well as consulting, data
analytics, and strategic assessment. The company’s offerings focus on
business-to-business, retail, finance, and automotive segments through digital,
social, mobile, and print media offerings.      

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

• Q1 Results Within The Zip Code. The first quarter revenues were $59.2 million versus our $57.5 million estimate. Operating cash flow, excluding one time charges, was a negative $4.7 million, in line with our $4.6 million loss estimate. 
• Revising vendor agreements. Management indicated that it is revising vendor agreements, which we view is an important step toward returning the company to positive cash flow and to profitability. In addition, the 

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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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Thursday, May 9, 2019

Gray Television (GTN)

Why Didn’t The Stock Go Up?

Gray
Television, Inc. operates as a television broadcast company in the United
States. As of April 6, 2010, it operated 36 television stations in 30 markets, including 17 affiliated with CBS
Inc.; 10 affiliated with the National Broadcasting Company, Inc.; 8 affiliated
with the American Broadcasting Company (ABC); and 1 affiliated with FOX
Entertainment Group, Inc. (FOX).  

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

• Exceeds Q1 Expectations. The company exceeded our revenue and cash flow expectation by 4.7% and 8.0% respectively, but the results were clouded by one-time items. Retransmission revenue was the largest upside variance, benefiting from some true-ups and OTT platform subscriber growth.
• Q2 Outlook Disappoints. While Q2 revenue and expense guidance is in line with our expectations, we believe that it was lower than current Street consensus. Our Q2 revenue estimate is $504 million in line with the company’s guidance range of $502 million to $512 million, but bel… 

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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Entravision Communications (EVC)

Oh, What A Relief It Is.

Entravision Communications Corporation is a diversified Spanish-language media company utilizing a combination of television and radio operations to reach Hispanic consumers across the United States, as well as the border markets of Mexico. 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

• In line Q4. Fourth quarter cash flow of $20.7 million was in line with our $21.4 million estimate, on lighter than expected revenues at $82.1 million (versus our $87.1 million estimate). The $5 million revenue variance was all from the company’s Digital media business and reflected a management decision to focus on profitable revenue growth. 
• No material accounting issues. The company explains away the late quarterly filing and the non material nature of the new auditors findings. The company appears wil… 

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making any investment decision.