Thursday, April 28, 2021
Forbes Global Media: A Compelling Growth Story
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to end of report for Analyst Certification & Disclosures
Noblecon 18 highlights. Forbes CEO, Mike Federle, and CFO, Mike York, presented at Noblecon18, speaking on several topics, such as Forbes recent strong results and outlook for 2022, the impacts of Forbes’ brand elasticity on its growth prospects, how the company plans to leverage its in-house technology stack, a strategic investment from Binance, and when the SPAC merger is likely to close. The full video of the presentation can be found here.
2022 pacing well. Management stated that 2022 is off to a good start and expects a strong year of growth. Our full year 2022 revenue estimate is $290 million, which assumes 12% growth over 2021.
Technological advantages. During the presentation Forbes management stressed the importance of modern media companies having a strong technological foundation. Forbes has such a foundation with its analytics platform, ForbesOne, which gathers over 600 data points per user. This data allows the company to identify audience cohorts to improve content offerings as well as increase the value proposition for advertising partners.
SPAC merger update. The SPAC is expected to close by May 31. Upon the completion of the merger, shares of the SPAC (OPA) will convert to common stock of Forbes Global Media (FRBS).
Attractive valuation. Near current levels, the OPA shares trade at 9.4 times enterprise value to expected 2022 EBITDA and 7.5 times EV to expected 2023 EBITDA. Our price target of $16 represents a 60% premium to near current levels and a target EV/2022 EBITDA multiple of 16.5 times.
GENERAL DISCLAIMERS
All statements or opinions contained herein that include the words “we”, “us”, or “our” are solely the responsibility of Noble Capital Markets, Inc.(“Noble”) and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with the company mentioned in this report. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. All information provided herein is based on public and non-public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio. The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on its own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision.
This publication is intended for information purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to buy/sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any security mentioned in this report, nor shall there be any sale of the security herein in any state or domicile in which said offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or domicile. This publication and all information, comments, statements or opinions contained or expressed herein are applicable only as of the date of this publication and subject to change without prior notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Noble accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Noble. This report is not to be relied upon as a substitute for the exercising of independent judgement. Noble may have published, and may in the future publish, other research reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information provided in this report. Noble is under no obligation to bring to the attention of any recipient of this report, any past or future reports. Investors should only consider this report as single factor in making an investment decision.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or discussed to another party, without the written consent of Noble Capital Markets, Inc. (“Noble”). Noble seeks to update its research as appropriate, but may be unable to do so based upon various regulatory constraints. Research reports are not published at regular intervals; publication times and dates are based upon the analyst’s judgement. Noble professionals including traders, salespeople and investment bankers may provide written or oral market commentary, or discuss trading strategies to Noble clients and the Noble proprietary trading desk that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report.
The majority of companies that Noble follows are emerging growth companies. Securities in these companies involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Noble research reports may not be suitable for some investors and as such, investors must take extra care and make their own determination of the appropriateness of an investment based upon risk tolerance, investment objectives and financial status.
Company Specific Disclosures
The following disclosures relate to relationships between Noble and the company (the “Company”) covered by the Noble Research Division and referred to in this research report.
Company Specific Disclosures
The following disclosures relate to relationships between Noble and the company (the “Company”) covered by the Noble Research Division and referred to in this research report.
The SPAC Company in this report is a participant in the Company Sponsored Research Program (CSRP); Noble receives compensation from the Company for such participation. No part of the CSRP compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or views expressed by the analyst in this research report.
Noble is not a market maker in any of the companies mentioned in this report. Noble intends to seek compensation for investment banking services and non-investment banking services (securities and non-securities related) with any or all of the companies mentioned in this report within the next 3 months
ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE
Director of Research. Senior Equity Analyst specializing in Media & Entertainment. 34 years of experience as an analyst. Member of the National Cable Television Society Foundation and the National Association of Broadcasters. BS in Management Science, Computer Science Certificate and MBA specializing in Finance from St. Louis University.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst six times.
FINRA licenses 7, 24, 66, 86, 87
WARNING
This report is intended to provide general securities advice, and does not purport to make any recommendation that any securities transaction is appropriate for any recipient particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Prior to making any investment decision, recipients should assess, or seek advice from their advisors, on whether any relevant part of this report is appropriate to their individual circumstances. If a recipient was referred to Noble Capital Markets, Inc. by an investment advisor, that advisor may receive a benefit in respect of transactions effected on the recipients behalf, details of which will be available on request in regard to a transaction that involves a personalized securities recommendation. Additional risks associated with the security mentioned in this report that might impede achievement of the target can be found in its initial report issued by Noble Capital Markets, Inc.. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose unless authorized by Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION
Independence Of View
All views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers.
Receipt of Compensation
No part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or views expressed in the public
appearance and/or research report.
Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest
Neither I nor anybody in my household has a financial interest in the securities of the subject company or any other company mentioned in this report.
| NOBLE RATINGS DEFINITIONS |
% OF SECURITIES COVERED |
% IB CLIENTS |
| Outperform: potential return is >15% above the current price |
99% |
28% |
| Market Perform: potential return is -15% to 15% of the current price |
6% |
3% |
| Underperform: potential return is >15% below the current price |
0% |
0% |
NOTE: On August 20, 2018, Noble Capital Markets, Inc. changed the terminology of its ratings (as shown above) from “Buy” to “Outperform”, from “Hold” to “Market Perform” and from “Sell” to “Underperform.” The percentage relationships, as compared to current price (definitions), have remained the same.
Additional information is available upon request. Any recipient of this report that wishes further information regarding the subject company or the disclosure information mentioned herein, should contact Noble Capital Markets, Inc. by mail or phone.
Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
150 East Palmetto Park Rd., Suite 110
Boca Raton, FL 33432
561-994-1191
Noble Capital Markets, Inc. is a FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) registered broker/dealer.
Noble Capital Markets, Inc. is an MSRB (Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board) registered broker/dealer.
Member – SIPC (Securities Investor Protection Corporation)
Report ID: 24770
