Information Services Group (III) – No Signs of Slowing Down


Monday, August 07, 2023

ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For additional information, visit www.ISG-One.com

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Still Seeing Demand. ISG is continuing to experience increasing demand for its services, evidenced by the record second quarter revenue of $74.6 million. As noted in our previous report, recurring revenues now represents more than 40% of Company revenue and we anticipate the number to climb due to further demand from verticals such as consumer services, life sciences, and the public sector for the Company’s cost optimization services.

Balance Sheet. ISG reported a cash balance of $19.6 million as of June 30, 2023 compared to $23.7 million at March 31, 2023. The Company’s debt outstanding was at $79.2 million, unchanged from the first quarter, with the Company’s debt-to-EBITDA ratio remaining at 1.8x. 


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Haynes International (HAYN) – Third Quarter Earnings Were Modestly Above Our Expectations; Outlook Remains Favorable


Monday, August 07, 2023

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Third quarter financial results.  Haynes International reported third quarter fiscal 2023 net income of $8.8 million, or $0.68 per share compared to $15.6 million, or $1.24 per share, during the prior year period and $12.3 million, or $0.96 per share, during the prior quarter. We had forecast net income of $8.5 million or $0.67 per share. Revenues of $143.9 million increased 10.6% on a year-over-year basis but declined 5.8% compared to the prior quarter. A cybersecurity incident negatively impacted net revenues by an estimated $18 to $20 million. Lower production compressed gross margin and earnings were also impacted by costs associated with the investigation and restoration efforts. In total, the company estimates the impact of the event to be $0.40 to $0.45 per diluted share. Earnings were also negatively impacted by raw material fluctuations, primarily for cobalt, which resulted in a $0.09 per share impact.

Updating estimates. Management expects shipments, net revenues, and earnings during the fourth quarter to be the highest of the fiscal year. Anticipating a negative fourth quarter impact from fluctuations in raw materials prices, we have adjusted our 2023 EBITDA, net income, and EPS estimates to $82.0 million, $42.1 million, and $3.30 from $82.6, $43.2 million, and $3.40, respectively. We forecast 2024 EBITDA, net income, and EPS of $106.8 million, $59.1 million, and $4.65.


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Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) – Eagle reports results slightly below expectations, goes all in on shipping improvement


Monday, August 07, 2023

Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (“Eagle”) is a US-based drybulk owner-operator focused on the Supramax/Ultramax mid-size asset class, which ranges from 50,000 and 65,000 deadweight tons in size; these vessels are equipped with onboard cranes allowing for the self-loading and unloading of cargoes, a feature which distinguishes them from the larger classes of drybulk vessels and provides for greatly enhanced flexibility and versatility- both with respect to cargo diversity and port accessibility. The Company transports a broad range of major and minor bulk cargoes around the world, including coal, grain, ore, pet coke, cement, and fertilizer. Eagle operates out of three offices, Stamford (headquarters), Singapore, and Hamburg, and performs all aspects of vessel management in-house including: commercial, operational, technical, and strategic.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Eagle reported 2023-2Q results that were slightly below expectations. Top-line results were slightly above expectations on higher-than-expected TCE rates (increased premium to index prices), but higher TCE reveues were offset by higher than expected operating costs. Adjusted net income/EPS ($16.7m/$1.13) was above our estimate of $7.7m/$0.47, but that was due to an $11.6m gain on the sale of ships. Absent that gain, earnings would have been $5.2m or $0.32 per share.

Management is betting on the shipping market. During the quarter, the company upgraded its fleet by acquiring two scrubber-fitted ships and selling two non-scrubber ships. It also repurchased 3.8m shares (28% of outstanding) at a cost of $221 million and increased its borrowing capacity by $175m.


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Bit Digital, Inc. (BTBT) – July Production Up Sequentially


Monday, August 07, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

July Production. In July, Bit Digital produced 133.0 BTC, up 12% from 119.1 BTC in June. The increase in production was primarily driven by a higher average active hash rate and was partially offset by an increase in network difficulty. The active hash rate was approximately 1.78 EH/s as of the end of the month, flat with the end of June.

Ethereum. The Company had approximately 12,708 ETH actively staked in native and liquid staking protocols as of July 31, 2023, up from 11,716 at the end of the prior month. Approximately 10,304 were natively staked and 2,404 ETH were deployed in liquid staking protocols. Additionally, Bit Digital had 576 ETH deposited but in queue to be activated on the Ethereum staking network. Bit Digital earned a blended APY of approximately 4.5% on its staked ETH position for the month.


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The Week Ahead –  Oil Prices, Consumer Prices, and Consumer Sentiment

This Trading Week Markets Will See if CPI Confirms Decelerating Inflation

After last week’s employment figures came in lower than expectations, this week the potential catalyst for a shift in monetary policy is inflation measures. July Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release on Thursday. The June report allowed for optimism that inflation was not only moving in a favorable direction but that a sustainable downward trajectory was emerging. However, the upcoming July figures might not live up to the market celebration that followed the previous CPI report. This is because rising energy costs are likely to contribute to an increase in the year-over-year all-items CPI rate. If the core CPI annual rate does not exhibit substantial progress in its declining trend, this could set the stage for another interest rate hike as early as the September 19-20 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Monday 8/7

•             3:00 AM ET, Consumer credit is expected to increase $14.1 billion in June versus a smaller-than-expected increase of $7.3 billion in May.

Tuesday 8/8

•             6:00 AM ET, The Small Business Optimism Index has been well below the historical average of 98 for 18 months in a row. July’s consensus is 91.5 versus 91.0 in June.

•             8:30 AM ET, An International Trade in Goods and Services deficit of $65.4 billion is expected in June for total goods and services trade. This would compare with a $69.0 billion deficit in May. Advance data on the goods side of June’s report showed a $4.0 billion narrowing in the deficit.

•             10:00 AM ET, Wholesale Inventories preliminary number (second estimate) is expected down 0.3 percent, unchanged from the first estimate.

Wednesday 8/9

•             10:30 AM ET,  The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the US, whether produced here or abroad. The inventory level impacts prices for petroleum products.

Thursday 8/10

•             8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise 0.2 percent, which would match June. Annual rates, which in June were 3.0 percent overall and 4.8 percent for the core, are expected at 3.3 and 4.8 percent, respectively. Core prices in July are expected to hold steady at a modest monthly increase of 0.2 percent which would match June’s showing.

•             8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims for the August 5 week are expected to come in at 230,000 versus 227,000 in the prior week, which was 6,000 higher than expected.

•             4:30 AM ET, The Fed’s Balance Sheet is expected to have decreased by $36.580 to $8.207 trillion. Market participants and Fed watchers look to this weekly set of numbers to determine, among other things if the Fed is on track with its stated quantitative tightening (QT) plan.

Friday 8/11

•             8:30 AM ET, Producer Prices in July are expected to have risen 0.2 percent on the month versus a 0.1 percent increase in June. The annual rate in July is seen as rising 0.7 percent versus June’s gain. July’s ex-food and ex-energy rate is seen at 0.2 percent on the month and 2.3 percent on the year versus June’s 0.1 percent on the month and 2.4 percent yearly rate.

•             10:00 AM ET, Consumer Sentiment in August, which in July jumped more than 7 points to 71.6, is expected to edge back .3 to 71.3.

What Else

Crude Oil futures rose to around $83 per barrel, hovering at the highest levels in four months. The main reason is the Saudi Arabia and Russia’s announcement that they would extend voluntary supply cuts through next month to bolster oil prices. Saudi Arabia said on Thursday it would extend its 1 million barrels per day production cut for another month, while Russia said it will also reduce its oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September. Saudi Arabia also said its production cuts could be extended beyond September or deepened, catching markets off guard.

Most industries are impacted by energy prices, we whether it is all conasumer prices, or core, crude oil trading impacts consumer prices.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm

https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us

Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – Some Good Contract News


Friday, August 04, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Awards. Orion has been the recipient of two significant awards from the Army Corps of Engineers in the last two days, according to the DoD. Together, the new awards represent some $58 million of new dredging business, which typically has had an outsized impact on profit. We are encouraged by the recent awards and are hopeful proposal and award activity from the Corps ramps up to more historic levels.

Contract One. Last night, the DoD, in its daily contract awards press release, noted that Orion Marine Construction Inc., Tampa, Florida, was awarded a $40 million firm-fixed-price contract for Atchafalaya Basin, Gulf Intracoastal Waterway dredging. Work locations and funding will be determined with each order, with an estimated completion date of July 27, 2025. 


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Maple Gold Mines (MGMLF) – A Significant Discovery in the Making?


Friday, August 04, 2023

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Douay first phase deep drilling program. Maple Gold Mines released complete gold assay results from the first phase of deep drilling at the Douay Gold Project which is held in a 50/50 joint venture between the company and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE: AEM). During the first half of 2023, the joint venture completed a total of 5,793 meters of drilling in three new holes and two extension holes. The deep drilling program is intended to test the potential for a much larger gold system at Douay while demonstrating continuity of mineralization beneath the currently defined mineral resource.

All five drill holes intersected gold mineralization. All five drill holes intersected gold mineralization greater than 1 gram of gold per tonne, with 10 intercepts greater than 2.5 grams of gold per tonne and several broad low-grade intervals averaging 0.1 to 0.3 grams of gold per tonne. The drilling affirmed the continuity of the gold system down to at least approximately 1,600 meters vertical depth or up to four times deeper than Douay’s currently defined mineral resources.


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Lee Enterprises (LEE) – Its Digital Business Outperforms The Industry


Friday, August 04, 2023

Lee Enterprises, Incorporated provides local news, information, and advertising primarily in midsize markets in the United States. It publishes 49 daily newspapers, as well as offers 300 weekly newspapers and specialty publications in 23 states. The company also provides online advertising and services; and online infrastructure and online publishing services for approximately 1,500 daily and weekly newspapers and shoppers. In addition, it offers commercial printing services. The company has a strategic alliance with Yahoo!, Inc. to provide its classified employment advertising customer base the opportunity to post job listings and other employment products on Yahoo!�s HotJobs national platform. Lee Enterprises, Incorporated was founded in 1890 and is based in Davenport, Iowa.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q3 results. The company reported fiscal Q3 revenue and adj. EBITDA slightly below our expectations. Revenue was $171.3 million and adj. EBITDA was $23.2 million, compared with our estimates of $174.0 million and $25.6 million, respectively. Revenue was impacted by self induced cuts in its print business, the savings of which will flow through fiscal 2024 as well. While Q3 results were slightly lower than our estimates, we view the quarter favorably given strong digital revenue growth of 14.8% and improved print margins. 

Strong digital growth. The company’s digital business had another strong quarter, with total digital revenue growing a strong 14.8%, comprising 41% of total company revenues. Notably, the company has been leading the industry in digital subscriber growth for the last 14 quarters, growing at a CAGR of 44%. Digital subscribers reached 606,000 and subscription revenue grew 43% from the prior year period. In our view, its goals of 900,000 Digital subscribers and $100 million in Digital subscription revenue by 2026 appears well within its reach. 


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Information Services Group (III) – 2Q23: Another Record Revenue Quarter


Friday, August 04, 2023

ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For additional information, visit www.ISG-One.com

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Record 2Q23 Top Line. Record 2Q revenue of $74.6 million, up 5.5% y-o-y. Currency translation negatively impacted reported revenue by $0.1 million. By geography, Americas revenue rose 7% to $42.3 million, Europe was up 5% on a reported basis to $24.4 million, and Asia-Pacific revenue of $8 million was flat to the prior year. We were at $75 million.

Increasing Recurring Revenues.  Strong demand for research and platform services in the second quarter led to 21% growth in recurring revenues, which now represent more than 40% of Company revenue. ISG’s mix of portfolio solutions and services around cost optimization and digital transformation continues to resonate with clients.


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Haynes International (HAYN) – Third Quarter Earnings Were Modestly Above Our Expectations


Friday, August 04, 2023

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Third quarter financial results. Haynes International reported third quarter fiscal 2023 net income of $8.8 million or $0.68 per share compared to $15.6 million or $1.24 per share during the prior year period and $12.3 million or $0.96 per share during the prior quarter. We had forecast net income of $8.5 million or $0.67 per share. Revenues of $143.9 million increased 10.6% on a year-over-year basis but declined 5.8% compared to the prior quarter. A June cybersecurity incident negatively impacted net revenues by an estimated $18 to $20 million and earnings per share by $0.40 to $0.45. Earnings were also negatively impacted by raw material fluctuations, primarily for cobalt, which resulted in a $0.09 per share impact. The prior year period benefited from a raw material tailwind of $0.25 per diluted share.

Growing order backlog. Orders during the quarter resulted in a record backlog of $468.1 million as of June 30th and represented a 4.8% increase compared to the prior quarter and a 38.4% increase on a year-over-year basis. Backlog pounds increased 3.2% during the third quarter to approximately 14.6 million pounds and increased 20.7% compared to the prior year period driven by strong demand in the aerospace and industrial gas turbine markets.


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Entravision Communications (EVC) – Trying to Rope a Bull By Its Horns


Friday, August 04, 2023

Entravision Communications Corporation is a diversified Spanish-language media company utilizing a combination of television and radio operations to reach Hispanic consumers across the United States, as well as the border markets of Mexico. Entravision owns and/or operates 53 primary television stations and is the largest affiliate group of both the top-ranked Univision television network and Univision’s TeleFutura network, with television stations in 20 of the nation’s top 50 Hispanic markets. The Company also operates one of the nation’s largest groups of primarily Spanish-language radio stations, consisting of 48 owned and operated radio stations.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Mixed Q2 results. While revenues beat expectations ($273.4 million versus our $262.9 million estimate), adj. EBITDA was 13% lower than expected ($14.2 million versus our $16.4 million estimate). The revenue variance was due to its Digital revenue, $10 million above our expectations. Notably, the biggest adj. EBITDA variance was due to lower margins in its Digital Media segment. 

A Facebook faceplant. The company’s Digital Media margins going forward will be adversely affected by Meta (Facebook) is reducing Entravision’s commission revenue, from 10% to 7%. We estimate that this will adversely affect the company by over $8 million in adj. EBITDA in the second half 2023. While margins will take a hit, the company’s Digital Media revenue growth appears favorable and adj. EBITDA is expected to grow strong double digits in 2024. 


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FAT Brands Inc. (FAT) – Second Quarter Post Call Commentary


Friday, August 04, 2023

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2Q23 Results. FAT Brands reported 2Q23 revenue of $106.8 million, up 3.9% y-o-y from $102.8 million in the year ago quarter. System-wide sales growth was 1.7%. Same Store Sales were up 1.9%. FAT reported adjusted EBITDA of $23.1 million in the quarter, compared to $29.5 million in 2Q22. Net loss for the quarter was $7.1 million, or $0.53/sh, compared to a net loss of $9.8 million, or $0.60/sh last year. Adjusted net income for the quarter was $3.0 million, or EPS of $0.08/sh, compared to a net loss of $3.1 million, or a loss of $0.29/sh, last year. We had projected revenue of $106.8 million and a net loss of $26 million, or a loss of $1.57/sh.

Development Continues. YTD, FAT has opened 66 restaurants, including 25 in 2Q and the Company remains on track to open 175 locations in 2023. YTD, over 150 new franchise agreements have been signed, bringing the total pipeline to over 1,100 signed agreements.


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DLH Holdings (DLHC) – Post Call Commentary: Ready to Pounce


Friday, August 04, 2023

DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Standing Ready. With its acquisitions of S3, IBA, and, most recently GRSi, DLH has truly morphed into a one stop shop platform to address a broader range of client’s solution needs with expertise in science, research and development, systems engineering, and integration.

Promising Pipeline. Although the contract award environment continues to experience some headwinds, there does appear to be some movement both with anticipated proposals from previously won ID/IQ contracts as well as normal ongoing business. Overall, we believe there is significant demand from its clients for the services DLH provides.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.