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Will the Markets Continue to March Higher in 2022?

 

A relentless bull market, Covid variants, supply-chain issues, and inflation are likely to each have a chapter of their own when the story of the market’s strength throughout 2021 is written. With all the concern during 2021 over whether stocks would stay strong, whether disease outbreaks would crush the economic recovery, and the risks of inflation, the outcome is quite positive. Had an investor built a diversified portfolio on January 1, then ignored it the rest of the year, there is a good chance it would have outperformed the historical averages of the major indexes.

 

 

For those who diversified away from equities and decided to play it “safe” in the bond market, many U.S. aggregate bond funds were negative on the year. High yield funds tended to return a paltry return relative to stocks.

 

 

Consumer Prices

Inflation started the year as a talking point and ended as the center of attention. The U.S. economy entered 2021, with consumer prices rising at a low 1.4% year-over-year. This was below the Federal Reserve’s long-run target of 2%. If inflation concerned the Fed at all early in the year, it believed it should be a little higher.

Later in the year, supply-chain-related shortages had made it from business news to mainstream news programming. Prices became a normal dinnertime topic after the Dollar Store raised all of their prices. The weakest supply chain links were reported to be at ports where containers with imported goods waited to be put on a truck for delivery to its U.S. destination. Both available drivers and trucks are still well below the current demand level.

Stimulus

Supply and delivery problems were half of the issues that worked their way into producer and consumer prices. Another stimulus bill out of Washington worth $1.9 trillion signed by the new administration (added to the previous $900 billion package, and the $2.1 trillion Cares Act passed the prior year) put an excessive amount of money into the economy.  The Fed was supporting borrowing by purchasing Treasury securities at nearly a $1 trillion annual rate, along with nearly $500 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities, which continues to keep mortgage rates well below current inflation. The high level of cash that was pumped into the markets to offset lockdowns and slowdowns, along with the inability to deliver goods on time worked its way into prices. Inflation now stands at the end of the year at close to 7%. This is a rate not seen since 1982.

 

Easy Money

Although not counted directly in the CPI-U basket of goods, larger homes increased in price 20% or more as people working from home now felt they wanted more space. Early in the year, Fed Chairman Powell called the surge in single-family home prices a “passing phenomenon.”

Along with housing, inexpensive money seemed to drive asset prices up on much more speculative assets.  This included collectible non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Few had even heard of an NFT at the start of 2021, but by year-end the stratosphere-level prices had many investors taking notice and many companies entering the space. Low cost of money inflates the value of assets. Cheap, abundant capital can justify all manner of additions to one’s life, from electric vehicles, to stationary computerized bicycles, to speculative cryptocurrencies.

A shortage of computer chips led to a shortage of stand-alone computers and auto and marine engines that rely on these chips. This helped drive up used car and boat prices as much as 10% in one month.

  

Take-Away

In 2022, one can only guess, much of what drove prices up (new money, supply problems) will diminish. It already seems that a stimulus package that only a couple of months ago had the votes to pass, may not be even close to the expected size first envisioned. With this in mind, money management and investment selection become even more important. One cannot just put their money in a diversified fund and expect it to ride the wave.

The Channelchek platform houses current equity research and well thought out articles that are added to daily. It is a great online source to discover actionable ideas and understand what industry experts are thinking.
Register at no cost now for Channelchek to help stimulate your investor knowledge in 2022.

 

Suggested Reading:

Why Small Cap Stocks May Outperform Large Caps in 2022

Market Index Inclusion and Spikes in a Stock’s Demand

Will there be Enthusiasm for Ark Invest’s ESG ETF?

ESG Ratings Could Miss Problematic Supply Chain Issues

 

Sources:

https://www.bls.gov/

https://apps.bea.gov/itable/index.cfm

www.koyfin.com

 

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Some DiDi Chuxing Stockholders Take an Unplanned Detour

 

DiDi Chuxing (DIDI) is back in the news and confusing investors once again. The ridesharing giant that announced plans to delist its shares on the NYSE in early December, after their IPO in June, just made another surprising announcement. According to an article in the Financial Times, December 27th was the date marking the end of the lockout period for employees to be able to sell their shares; this ban on liquidating employee-owned stock has now been extended.

For DiDi employees there was a scheduled 180-day window after the June 30, 2021, IPO during which they were not permitted to sell their holdings. The company that went public at $14 per share, announced on December 2
^nd that it planned to delist from the NYSE to catch another ride on the Hong Kong Exchange. Investors theorized the abrupt turn may have resulted from pressure from China’s cybersecurity “watchdog.” The employee ban is now ongoing without an end date indicating when this class of stockholders may cash out of the sinking stock.

 

 

This new set of rules marks another change of direction for the ride-hailing company. Employees have to date lost 56% of their value, or about $ 37 billion in market capitalization, since their initial public offering in New York last summer.

The company has also been prohibited from registering new users, while at the same time, Chinese cyberspace regulators ordered the app stores to remove 25 other related apps, including apps that register new drivers.

According to the Financial Times article, DiDi’s current and former employees will not be permitted to sell their shares until the listing on the Hong Kong Exchange is successful; there was nothing mentioned about when this might be.

 

Suggested Reading:

When Stocks Like DiDi Delist, What Happens to Shareholders?

Are ADRs Riskier than Stocks?

Publicly Traded Chinese Companies Duty to Shareholders

Will the ExxonMobil Accident Impact Fuel Costs?

 

Sources:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/didi-bars-employees-selling-shares-indefinitely-ft-2021-12-27/

https://www.ft.com/content/695b5519-983f-4e44-a9c0-7e1cf1eca525

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qx1io0VIYxw

 

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enCore Energy and Azarga Uranium Receive Final Court Order Approving Plan of Arrangement and Commence Closing Process enCore Energy announced that Azarga Uranium has received a final order from the Supreme Court of British Columbia Research, News & Market Data on enCore Energy Watch recent presentation from enCore Energy

 

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Staci Bogue-Buchholz Joins Gevo as Site and Process Optimization Leader Gevo announced that Staci Bogue-Buchholz has joined Gevo as Site and Process Optimization Leader at the Luverne, Minnesota facility Research, News & Market Data on Gevo Watch recent presentation from Gevo

Cocrystal Pharma’s COVID-19 Oral and Intranasal/Pulmonary Protease Inhibitors Exhibit Powerful In Vitro Potency Against the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Cocrystal Pharma announced that in vitro studies demonstrate its oral and intranasal/pulmonary SARS-CoV-2 main protease inhibitors exhibit antiviral potency against the Omicron variant Research, News & Market Data on Cocrystal Pharma Watch recent presentation from Cocrystal Pharma

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Schwazze Closes Acquisition of Assets of Smoking Gun, Llc & Smoking Gun Land Company, Llc Schwazze announced that it has closed the acquisition of the assets of Smoking Gun, LLC and Smoking Gun Land Company, LLC Research, News & Market Data on Schwazze Watch recent presentation from Schwazze

 

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	Image Credit: 3126 Fishery (Flickr)

Small-Cap Stocks Could Enter the New Year with a Large Tailwind

 

As measured by the S&P 600, small-cap stocks are trading cheaper than they have since the early 2000s during the burst of the dot.com bubble – at least when compared to large-cap stocks. This could indicate that the investment trend to follow momentum rather than value is providing investors many overlooked opportunities in stocks with lower capitalizations.

The S&P Small-Cap 600 is an index that measures the small-cap segment of U.S. equities. When compared to the more often quoted S&P 500, which measures large-cap companies, the large-cap index stocks are on average far more expensive.  As proof, the S&P 600 price-to-earnings ratio, which was on par five years ago, is now 68% of the S&P 500. The last time the gap had been this wide was 20 years ago, as the tech bubble burst putting small companies out of favor.

 

Source: FactSet

 

As shown in the chart above, the S&P 600 index is now priced at 14.5 times expected earnings over the next year. The valuation is well below historical norms and 21.3 times the large-cap S&P 500 index, which includes FAANG stocks among others.

With smaller U.S. listed companies are priced at a steep discount to larger ones, the small-cap sector could still be considered inexpensive despite the rally they both experienced since April 2020. This disparity begs the question, “when will fund managers with full discretion look for better values?” The answer may be “soon.” It could occur after year-end window dressing subsides and equity managers are less prone to need to show the year’s biggest winners in their holdings.

The other question is, “when will the gap shrink to a more historical norm?” The answer may be, early in the first quarter of next year. The reason is this. Many fund managers are inclined toward holding stocks that have performed well during the year to show those holdings on their year-end statements. This “window dressing” is not at all uncommon in the fund management industry. Once these securities are reported on statements as part of a portfolio’s holdings (after 12/31), the fund manager may feel freer to invest using basic fundamentals and less on appearances.

 

Take-Away

The Price Earnings disparity between large-cap stocks and small-cap stocks (as measured by the S&P indexes) is glaring. The trend toward chasing stocks that have spiked up over the past 18 months, causing them to move even higher, will end one day. That day may be soon as the new year provides a clean slate for fund managers to prove themselves. The playbook that works next year will likely be different from the Covid related trading that worked this year. In the meantime, shares of companies that have done well will look appealing on a fund managers’ year-end holdings reports.

Channelchek is an investor resource for small and microcap stocks. No-cost registration allows users access to premium research and provides daily information straight to their inbox.

Sources:

https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart

https://www.ft.com/content/a894adff-7ca2-4fdc-bc85-c43bc2c53491

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-600/#overview

 

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	Image credit: Liza Summers (Pexels)

Why Investors and Stock Pickers Watch Russell Index Addition Dates

 

A sudden rise in a stock’s price is almost always demand-related. This could occur if the company beats earnings estimates, announces a breakthrough product, is being considered for acquisition from a larger company, or public policy shifts in their favor. Another reason could be inclusion in a major stock market index.

There are investors that look to determine which companies may be added to an index and which may be removed. Although being right doesn’t always mean huge gains for them, the rewards on average make this a legitimate approach for stock picking. One of the more common family of indexes that investors watch is the FTSE Russell indexes. The reason is these are more transparent than others. Russell actually puts out a calendar each year and shares its methodology for including new companies on its website.

The annual rejiggering of the Russell indexes, known as the Russell Reconstitution, is in late Spring and attracts a lot of attention.  Subscribers to Channelchek can expect to receive our notification and analysis on the small-cap Russell 2000 index reconstitution.

 

Abbreviated History of Impactful Companies Added to the Russell after their IPO

Russell updates its indexes quarterly to include new public companies to best represent the market.

 

In addition to the annual index reconstitution, FTSE Russell also has a quarterly calendar where they look at IPOs that occurred during the quarter and weigh the outcomes against their methodology for inclusion in the broad Russell 3000 index. Once in the 3000, companies may be further segmented into other indexes. These inclusions can alter the demand for the stock both immediately, as fund managers seek to mimic an index and buy the stock, and then over time, as index investor demand for the index funds ebb and flow.

 

 

As a testament to just how impactful these additions may be, a recent example involves a company called Society Pass, Inc. (SOPA). Society Pass went public via an IPO in November. On December 20^th Russell added new IPOs in order to update the indexes to reflect current markets, and SOPA was added both to the Russell 3000 broad index and the Russell 2000. The average daily trading volume for SOPA leading up to the inclusion was 1.3M, on December 20^th, 167.5M shares changed hands. The impact is indicated above in the month-to-date graph (% change). The stock opened at $4.44, traded as high as $13.48, and closed at $11.26. 

 

Opportunity in IPO Additions

Over the last ten years, there have been almost 1500 IPO additions to the Russell Indexes, and the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index has had the majority of these additions.

 

 

After the Addition

Inclusion in a major index generally results in a higher “base price” for the stock. Further price changes are then more closely tied to fundamentals like company performance.   However, the stock will experience the added transactions that have very little to do with the company and are instead index expectation related. In addition, there should be higher trade volumes and possibly an even higher level of demand because of the company’s increased visibility.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

 

Suggested Reading:

Peter Lynch Echoes Michael Burry’s Warning About Index Investments

The Russell Index Reconstitution, What to Know

Does the Russell Reconstitution Impact Small-Cap Performance During June?

Does Cathie Wood’s ESG Fund Have it Wrong?

 

Sources:

https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/final_ipo_additions_2021_4_qtr_r3000.pdf

https://www.sec.gov/fast-answers/answersindiceshtm.html

https://budgeting.thenest.com/mutual-funds-safe-against-bad-stock-crash-30572.html

https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/2021_09_russell_indexes_quarterly_ipo_update.pdf

 

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	Image credit: Liza Summers (Pexels)

Why Investors and Stock Pickers Watch Russell Index Addition Dates

 

A sudden rise in a stock’s price is almost always demand-related. This could occur if the company beats earnings estimates, announces a breakthrough product, is being considered for acquisition from a larger company, or public policy shifts in their favor. Another reason could be inclusion in a major stock market index.

There are investors that look to determine which companies may be added to an index and which may be removed. Although being right doesn’t always mean huge gains for them, the rewards on average make this a legitimate approach for stock picking. One of the more common family of indexes that investors watch is the FTSE Russell indexes. The reason is these are more transparent than others. Russell actually puts out a calendar each year and shares its methodology for including new companies on its website.

The annual rejiggering of the Russell indexes, known as the Russell Reconstitution, is in late Spring and attracts a lot of attention.  Subscribers to Channelchek can expect to receive our notification and analysis on the small-cap Russell 2000 index reconstitution.

 

Abbreviated History of Impactful Companies Added to the Russell after their IPO

Russell updates its indexes quarterly to include new public companies to best represent the market.

 

In addition to the annual index reconstitution, FTSE Russell also has a quarterly calendar where they look at IPOs that occurred during the quarter and weigh the outcomes against their methodology for inclusion in the broad Russell 3000 index. Once in the 3000, companies may be further segmented into other indexes. These inclusions can alter the demand for the stock both immediately, as fund managers seek to mimic an index and buy the stock, and then over time, as index investor demand for the index funds ebb and flow.

 

 

As a testament to just how impactful these additions may be, a recent example involves a company called Society Pass, Inc. (SOPA). Society Pass went public via an IPO in November. On December 20^th Russell added new IPOs in order to update the indexes to reflect current markets, and SOPA was added both to the Russell 3000 broad index and the Russell 2000. The average daily trading volume for SOPA leading up to the inclusion was 1.3M, on December 20^th, 167.5M shares changed hands. The impact is indicated above in the month-to-date graph (% change). The stock opened at $4.44, traded as high as $13.48, and closed at $11.26. 

 

Opportunity in IPO Additions

Over the last ten years, there have been almost 1500 IPO additions to the Russell Indexes, and the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index has had the majority of these additions.

 

 

After the Addition

Inclusion in a major index generally results in a higher “base price” for the stock. Further price changes are then more closely tied to fundamentals like company performance.   However, the stock will experience the added transactions that have very little to do with the company and are instead index expectation related. In addition, there should be higher trade volumes and possibly an even higher level of demand because of the company’s increased visibility.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

 

Suggested Reading:

Peter Lynch Echoes Michael Burry’s Warning About Index Investments

The Russell Index Reconstitution, What to Know

Does the Russell Reconstitution Impact Small-Cap Performance During June?

Does Cathie Wood’s ESG Fund Have it Wrong?

 

Sources:

https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/final_ipo_additions_2021_4_qtr_r3000.pdf

https://www.sec.gov/fast-answers/answersindiceshtm.html

https://budgeting.thenest.com/mutual-funds-safe-against-bad-stock-crash-30572.html

https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/2021_09_russell_indexes_quarterly_ipo_update.pdf

 

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Entravision Raises Over $2.1 Million for Children’s Miracle Network Hospitals Entravision Communications announced that together with Children’s Miracle Network, they successfully raised over $2.1 million in the 14th Annual Radiothon event Research, News & Market Data on Entravision Communications Watch recent presentation from Entravision Communications

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Indonesia Energy Daily Production Rate Increases Over 50% With Recently Completed “Kruh 26” Well Indonesia Energy announced that its daily oil production rate has increased over 50% as a result of the recently completed “Kruh 26” well on its 63,000-acre Kruh Block Research, News & Market Data on Indonesia Energy Watch recent presentation from Indonesia Energy

Lineage Establishes Exclusive Worldwide Collaboration With Genentech for the Development and Commercialization of OpRegen® RPE Cell Therapy for the Treatment of Ocular Disorders Lineage Cell Therapeutics announced that Lineage and its subsidiary, Cell Cure Neurosciences Ltd., have entered into an exclusive worldwide collaboration Research, News & Market Data on Lineage Watch recent presentation from Lineage

Orion Group Holdings, Inc. Announces Contract Awards of Approximately $33 Million Orion Group Holdings announced two contract awards for its Marine segment totaling approximately $33 million Research, News & Market Data on Orion Group Holdings Watch recent presentation from Orion Group Holdings

Voyager Digital Announces Brian Brooks, Former Acting Comptroller of the U.S. Currency, Joins Board of Directors Voyager Digital announced that Brian Brooks has been appointed to Voyager Digital Ltd’s Board of Directors effective immediately Voyager Digital Announces Trading of Common Shares and Variable Voting Shares Under Single Trading Symbol to Commence as of Market Open on TSX on December 23, 2021 Voyager Digital announced that its amended share structure, overwhelmingly approved at the annual general and special meeting of shareholders held on December 14, 2021, will be reflected in trading effective as of the opening of the Market on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday December 23, 2021 Research, News & Market Data on Voyager Digital Watch recent presentation from Voyager Digital

 

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	Image Source: Melania Trump Facebook

Melania Trump Moves into NFT Market to Further “Be Best” Goals

 

Melania Trump announced Thursday (December 16) that she has been eyeballing the NFT art business. She will be offering her first non-fungible token, Melania’s Vision, through December 31st on Solana. Melania joins other celebrities like Tiger Woods, Ellen DeGeneres and Snoop Dogg that have dabbled in this Blockchain medium.

In her official statement, the former first lady said, “I am proud to announce my new NFT endeavor, which embodies my passion for the arts, and will support my ongoing commitment to children through my Be Best initiative.”  She confirmed in her statement that she is starting a platform that will “release NFTs in regular intervals.

 

Trump’s first NFT will be available for purchase until Dec. 31. The NFT, titled “Melania’s Vision,” was first created in watercolor paint and depicts Mrs. Trump’s eyes. It is priced at one SOL, a cryptocurrency that runs on the Solana blockchain, currently valued at around $180. The image will also include an audio recording, a “message of hope” from Melania Trump.

A portion of the proceeds from the NFT sales will “assist children aging out of the foster care system by way of economic empowerment and with expanded access to resources needed to excel in the fields of computer science and technology,” the statement said. The former first lady introduced the Be Best initiative in 2018, during her husband’s term in office. It initially focused on three main “pillars,” well-being, social media use, and opioid abuse among children.

Some of the more high-profile NFTs after Beeple’s The First 5000 Days made headlines include: Jack Dorsey’s digital version of his first tweet, which sold as an NFT for more than $2.9 million, and the viral 2007 video “Charlie Bit My Finger” fetched more than $760,000 in May. Earlier this week, a previously unheard demo track Whitney Houston recorded at age 17, sold as an NFT for $999,999.

 

Suggested Reading:

Trump Media SPAC Merger Details

Tradestation and Trump Media aren’t the Only Hot SPAC Stories

NFT Fractional Ownership and Metaverse Museums

NFT Collectible Marketplace for DRAFTKINGS

 

Sources:

https://melaniatrump.com/eyes-nft

https://explorer.solana.com/address/7CC4YrazfBqr2FMEWEar1fmbP3kULzMfrvW8KDPtfT6W

https://twitter.com/MELANIATRUMP/status/1471468919810670603/photo/1

https://www.lofficielusa.com/pop-culture/celebrities-on-the-crypto-art-craze

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/latest-nft-art-melania-trumps-224641936.html

 

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Helius Medical Technologies, Inc. Partners with the Medical University of South Carolina in Pilot Trial on Stroke Helius Medical Technologies announced its partnership with Dr. Steve Kautz, on an investigator-initiated study, conducted at the Medical University of South Carolina Research, News & Market Data on Helius Medical Watch recent presentation from Helius Medical

 

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	Image Source: Melania Trump Facebook

Melania Trump Moves into NFT Market to Further “Be Best” Goals

 

Melania Trump announced Thursday (December 16) that she has been eyeballing the NFT art business. She will be offering her first non-fungible token, Melania’s Vision, through December 31st on Solana. Melania joins other celebrities like Tiger Woods, Ellen DeGeneres and Snoop Dogg that have dabbled in this Blockchain medium.

In her official statement, the former first lady said, “I am proud to announce my new NFT endeavor, which embodies my passion for the arts, and will support my ongoing commitment to children through my Be Best initiative.”  She confirmed in her statement that she is starting a platform that will “release NFTs in regular intervals.

 

Trump’s first NFT will be available for purchase until Dec. 31. The NFT, titled “Melania’s Vision,” was first created in watercolor paint and depicts Mrs. Trump’s eyes. It is priced at one SOL, a cryptocurrency that runs on the Solana blockchain, currently valued at around $180. The image will also include an audio recording, a “message of hope” from Melania Trump.

A portion of the proceeds from the NFT sales will “assist children aging out of the foster care system by way of economic empowerment and with expanded access to resources needed to excel in the fields of computer science and technology,” the statement said. The former first lady introduced the Be Best initiative in 2018, during her husband’s term in office. It initially focused on three main “pillars,” well-being, social media use, and opioid abuse among children.

Some of the more high-profile NFTs after Beeple’s The First 5000 Days made headlines include: Jack Dorsey’s digital version of his first tweet, which sold as an NFT for more than $2.9 million, and the viral 2007 video “Charlie Bit My Finger” fetched more than $760,000 in May. Earlier this week, a previously unheard demo track Whitney Houston recorded at age 17, sold as an NFT for $999,999.

 

Suggested Reading:

Trump Media SPAC Merger Details

Tradestation and Trump Media aren’t the Only Hot SPAC Stories

NFT Fractional Ownership and Metaverse Museums

NFT Collectible Marketplace for DRAFTKINGS

 

Sources:

https://melaniatrump.com/eyes-nft

https://explorer.solana.com/address/7CC4YrazfBqr2FMEWEar1fmbP3kULzMfrvW8KDPtfT6W

https://twitter.com/MELANIATRUMP/status/1471468919810670603/photo/1

https://www.lofficielusa.com/pop-culture/celebrities-on-the-crypto-art-craze

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/latest-nft-art-melania-trumps-224641936.html

 

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