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Alvopetro Energy (ALVOF)(ALV:CA) – Results On Recently-Initiated Company Meet Expectations, Dividend Increase Sooner Than Expected

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Monday, March 21, 2022

Alvopetro Energy (ALVOF)(ALV:CA)
Results On Recently-Initiated Company Meet Expectations, Dividend Increase Sooner Than Expected

Alvopetro Energy Ltd is a Canada based resource company engaged in the exploration, acquisition, development, and production of hydrocarbons in Brazil. The company holds interests in the Cabure and Gomo natural gas assets, two oil fields (Bom Lugar and Mae-da-lua) and seven other exploration assets in the Reconcavo basin onshore Brazil.

Michael Heim, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Alvopetro reported fourth quarter and 2021 results that were very much in line with our modeling. Production volumes for 2021 were 2,432 BOE/d versus 1,950 last year and slightly above our 2,370 estimate. Revenues of $35.0 million were in line with our $36.7 million estimate and up more than 200% versus 2020 revenues of $11.3 million. Funds flow from operations was $24.6 million versus our $22.7 million estimate and up 290% from 2020 levels of $6.2 million. All in all, it was a very good quarter and year for the company, albeit not unexpected.

    The board raised the annual dividend 33% to $0.32 per share, sooner than we had expected.  In our initiation report last week, we highlighted the tremendous amount of free cash flow that ALVO will be generating due to an increase in the price it will receive for gas sales. We indicated we believe the company would raise the dividend level that it set last fall. However, we did not expect the board …

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

 

Item 9 Labs (INLB) – Further Expansion into Colorado

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Friday, March 18, 2022

Item 9 Labs (INLB)
Further Expansion into Colorado

Item 9 Labs Corp. (OTCQX: INLB) is a vertically integrated cannabis operator and dispensary franchisor delivering premium products from its large-scale cultivation and production facilities in the United States. The award-winning Item 9 Labs brand specializes in best-in-class products and user experience across several cannabis categories. The company also offers a unique dispensary franchise model through the national Unity Rd. retail brand. Easing barriers to entry, the franchise provides an opportunity for both new and existing dispensary owners to leverage the knowledge, resources, and ongoing support needed to thrive in their state compliantly and successfully. Item 9 Labs brings the best industry practices to markets nationwide through distinctive retail experience, cultivation capabilities, and product innovation. The veteran management team combines a diverse skill set with deep experience in the cannabis sector, franchising, and the capital markets to lead a new generation of public cannabis companies that provide transparency, consistency, and well-being. Headquartered in Arizona, the company is currently expanding its operations space by 650,000+ square feet on its 50-acre site, one of the largest properties in Arizona zoned to grow and cultivate flower. For additional information, visit item9labscorp.com.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    The Acquisition. Hot on the heels of the announced Reg A offering, Item 9 Labs’ is acquiring The Herbal Cure, a medicinal and recreational dispensary and cultivator in Denver. Herbal Cure had revenues of $5.4 million in 2021, and will be transitioning over the Unity Rd. brand over the next six months, pending approval from Colorado’s Marijuana Enforcement Division (the “MED”) and the City of Denver. Terms of the deal were not released.

    A Path for Item 9 Products.  With a 3,000 square-foot medicinal and recreational cultivation facility, The Herbal Cure will enable Item 9 Labs to introduce its award-winning cannabis products to the Colorado market in the year ahead. Item 9 will have a built-in base of three dispensaries through which to sell its product and the potential to penetrate non-Unity Rd. dispensaries …

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

 

Pangaea Logistics (PANL) – Post Call Update – Weakness Not Warranted

Posted on by Admin

Friday, March 18, 2022

Pangaea Logistics (PANL)
Post Call Update – Weakness Not Warranted

Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd and its subsidiaries provide seaborne drybulk transportation services. It transports drybulk cargos including grains, coal, iron, ore, pig, iron, hot briquetted iron, bauxite, alumina, cement clinker, dolomite and limestone. The firm’s services include cargo loading, cargo discharge, vessel chartering, voyage planning and technical vessel management. The company derives all of its revenues from contracts of affreightment, voyage charters and time charters. Its strategy depends on focusing on increasing strategic contracts of affreightment, expanding capacity and flexibility by increasing its owned fleet and increasing backhaul focus and fleet efficiency.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Logistics, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Call highlights. Favorable dry bulk market fundamentals, especially the low order book, intact despite the ongoing market reset due to Russian sanctions. No concerns about counter party risk even though expanding receivables triggered $1.5 million increase in doubtful accounts. Bunker fuel prices have moved up, but typically hedging 75% of fuel consumption helps temper impact.

    No change in 2022 EBITDA estimate of $98.0 million based on TCE rates of $24.8k/day.  Well positioned after positive developments last year. Strong 2021 results make comps tough, but this year should be solid and TCE rate on 1Q2022 forward cover approximates $26.5k/day. Positive outlook based on a consistent commercial strategy that adds value in different market environments, a leading Ice Class …

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

 

Sierra Metals (SMTS)(SMT:CA) – Strong Finish to a Challenging Year

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Friday, March 18, 2022

Sierra Metals (SMTS)(SMT:CA)
Strong Finish to a Challenging Year

As of April 24, 2020, Noble Capital Markets research on Sierra Metals is published under ticker symbols (SMTS and SMT:CA). The price target is in USD and based on ticker symbol SMTS. Research reports dated prior to April 24, 2020 may not follow these guidelines and could account for a variance in the price target.

Sierra Metals Inc is a precious and base metals producer in Latin America. The company acquires, explores, extracts, and produces mineral concentrates consisting of silver, copper, lead, zinc and gold in Mexico and Peru. Its activity includes the operation of the Yauricocha Mine in Peru, and the Bolivar and Cusi mines in Mexico. Yauricocha is an underground polymetallic mine using the sublevel block caving and cut-and-fill mining methods. Bolivar is a copper-silver-zinc-gold underground mine using room-and-pillar mining method. The majority of the revenue is earned by selling of the mineral concentrates to its customers in Peru.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst of Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Full year financial results. Sierra Metals reported 2021 adjusted net income attributable to shareholders of $21.6 million, or $0.13 per share, compared with $30.8 million, or $0.19 per share, in 2020. Adjusted EBITDA increased 1.8% to $104.7 million compared to $102.8 million in the prior year. Our EPS and EBITDA estimates were $0.06 and $89.7 million. Variances to our estimates include higher revenue, differences between actual and modeled net income to non-controlling interests, and various add backs that closed the delta between a GAAP loss of $(0.17) per share and adjusted EPS, including a $35 million asset impairment. In light of 2021 operational challenges, financial and operating results exceeded our expectations.

    2022 Guidance.  Management forecasts 2022 EBITDA in the range of $90.0 to $105.0 million based on copper equivalent production in the range of 79.5 million to 89.7 million pounds. Completion of mine development at Bolivar should drive stronger financial results in the second half of the year. We think the company’s growth outlook is supported by expansions at existing operations, the addition of an …

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

 

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – New 1Q2022 Awards Announced

Posted on by Admin

Friday, March 18, 2022

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)
New 1Q2022 Awards Announced

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp is a provider of dredging services in the United States. The company only’s operating segments is Dredging. Dredging involves the enhancement or preservation of navigability of waterways or the protection of shorelines through the removal or replenishment of soil, sand or rock. Its projects portfolio includes Coastal Restoration, Coastal Protection, Port expansion, and others.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Logistics, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    New Awards of $132.3 million announced. 

    Six projects were awarded, ranging in size from $11.5 million to $37.2 million. Four of the awards totaling $94.9 million relate to Coastal Protection, one award of $25.9 million relates to Maintenance and one award of $11.5 million relates to Capital.

    Two awards of $37.3 million is related to 4Q2021 activity and the other four awards of $95.0 million relate to 1Q2022 activity. All of the work is shorter term in nature and will enhance 2022 equipment utilization.

    Combined with 4Q2021 backlog of $552 million, but a large amount of 4Q2021 low bids pending award, the outlook looks solid this year. Also, it appears that the prospects for one of the LNG projects in low bids pending award has improved with FID on the horizon, which would push $100-$150 million of the low bid pending award number into backlog.

    Recovery expected this year and no change to 2022 EBITDA estimate.  With moderating COVID- 19 costs, we estimate that 2022 EBITDA will recover to $144.2 million. More than 80% of current backlog should be converted to revenue this year and the announced 4Q2021/1Q2022 awards are shorter term. The awards help temper three factors that represent headwinds this year, including dry docking activity …

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

 

Release – Item 9 Labs Corp. to Acquire The Herbal Cure in Denver, Colorado

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Item 9 Labs Corp. to Acquire The Herbal Cure in Denver, Colorado

Research, News, and Market Data on Item 9 Labs

 

  • Future Flagship Corporate Location Generated $5.4 Million in Revenue in 2021
  • Second Colorado Acquisition Fuels Market Expansion for the Company’s Dispensary Franchise, Unity Rd.
  • Acquisition Includes Cultivation License, Complementing the Company’s National Retail and Product Expansion Efforts

DENVER, March 17, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Item 9 Labs Corp. (OTCQX: INLB) (the “Company”) — a vertically integrated cannabis dispensary franchisor and operator that produces premium, award-winning products — announced today that it has signed an Asset Purchase Agreement (the “APA”) with The Herbal Cure, a medicinal and recreational dispensary and cultivator operating in Denver, Colorado.

The Herbal Cure was founded in 2010 and generated revenues of $5.4 million in 2021. Located in the desirable and central neighborhood of Washington Park in Denver, the 1,500 square-foot medicinal and recreational dispensary will be the Company’s future flagship location for the brand. Item 9 Labs Corp. anticipates the dispensary to be transitioned over to its cannabis dispensary franchise brand, Unity Rd., within six months of closing the acquisition, which is currently awaiting regulatory approval by Colorado’s Marijuana Enforcement Division (the “MED”) and the City of Denver.

The acquisition includes the current 5,000 square-foot facility, which has 3,500 square feet of space for on-site cultivation operations, corporate offices, team training and more. Item 9 Labs Corp. has room to expand the sales floor with additional point-of-sale terminals and expanded product assortment, in addition the potential to offer delivery services through one of the Company’s social equity partners.

On the cultivation side, the APA also consists of a 3,000 square-foot medicinal and recreational cultivation. The Company anticipates introducing its award-winning cannabis products from Item 9 Labs to the Colorado market in the year ahead. With nearly 30 podium finishes in Arizona marijuana competitions, Item 9 Labs is a trusted source for premium cannabis products with a catalog that spans 100-plus products across five core categories, including several active cannabis strains, cannabis vape products, premium concentrates and Orion vape technology.

“The Herbal Cure acquisition represents an accretive opportunity for the Company and is well-positioned with our national retail and product expansion strategy,” said the Company’s Chief Strategy Officer, Jeffrey Rassas.

Unity Rd. is the growth vehicle that will bring Item 9 Labs products to new markets. The Company is focusing product expansion efforts on states such as Colorado, where there are two to three Unity Rd. shops in operation to ease new market product entry and focus operations. In Colorado, Unity Rd. currently has a franchise shop located in Boulder as well as a corporate shop opening in the next few months in Adams County that will later be sold to a Unity Rd. franchise partner. This expansion strategy gives the Company’s dispensary franchise partners front-of-the-line access to a reliable, award-winning product supply chain. The Unity Rd. brand also benefits from the national product consistency that consumers have come to expect from franchise brands.

“With The Herbal Cure dispensary ideally located in South Denver, we anticipate seeing accelerated brand penetration in the market thanks to heightened exposure amongst daily commuters as well as high traffic from tourism, especially during the summer months,” said the Company’s Vice President of Mergers and Acquisitions, Mark Busch. “This flagship location is a tremendous value-add for the Unity Rd. brand as we develop in the Colorado market and is a premier avenue for our plan to bring our Item 9 Labs products to the state.”

In addition to Colorado, Item 9 Labs Corp. is actively seeking acquisitions of cannabis dispensaries in key markets in Arizona, Michigan and Oklahoma to convert into the Unity Rd. brand. Currently, the dispensary franchise has multiple agreements signed with nearly 20 entrepreneurial groups who are in various stages of development nationwide. It offers entrepreneurs the tools, resources, systems and training needed to successfully run a cannabis dispensary in their market, meanwhile maintaining full ownership of their business and dispensary license.

More Information on Item 9 Labs Corp. and its brands:
Visit https://item9labscorp.com/

Cannabis Operators Interested in Selling Their Dispensary License:
Contact Mark Busch at acquisitions@item9labs.com

About Item 9 Labs Corp.
Item 9 Labs Corp. (OTCQX: INLB) is a vertically integrated cannabis operator and dispensary franchisor delivering premium products from its large-scale cultivation and production facilities in the United States. The award-winning Item 9 Labs brand specializes in best-in-class products and user experience across several cannabis categories. The company also offers a unique dispensary franchise model through the national Unity Rd. retail brand. Easing barriers to entry, the franchise provides an opportunity for both new and existing dispensary owners to leverage the knowledge, resources, and ongoing support needed to thrive in their state compliantly and successfully. Item 9 Labs brings the best industry practices to markets nationwide through distinctive retail experience, cultivation capabilities, and product innovation. The veteran management team combines a diverse skill set with deep experience in the cannabis sector, franchising, and the capital markets to lead a new generation of public cannabis companies that provide transparency, consistency, and well-being. Headquartered in Arizona, the company is currently expanding its operations space by up to 640,000-plus square feet on its 50-acre site, one of the largest properties in Arizona zoned to grow and cultivate flower. For additional information, visit https://investors.item9labscorp.com/.

Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, risks and effects of legal and administrative proceedings and governmental regulation, especially in a foreign country, future financial and operational results, competition, general economic conditions, proposed transactions that are not legally binding obligations of the company and the ability to manage and continue growth. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual outcomes may vary materially from those indicated. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements we make in this news release include the introduction of new technology, market conditions and those set forth in reports or documents we file from time to time with the SEC. We undertake no obligation to revise or update such statements to reflect current events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.

Media Contact:
Item 9 Labs Corp.
Jayne Levy, VP of Communications
Jayne@item9labs.com

Investor Contact:
Item 9 Labs Corp.
800-403-1140
Investors@item9labscorp.com

SOURCE Item 9 Labs Corp.

Release – Alvopetro Announces 33 Increase In Quarterly Dividend To US$0.08 Per Share Year-End 2021 Financial Results

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Alvopetro Announces 33% Increase In Quarterly Dividend To US$0.08 Per Share, Year-End 2021 Financial Results, Filing Of Annual Information Form And An Operational Update

Research, News, and Market Data on Alvopetro Energy

 

CALGARY, AB, March 17, 2022 /CNW/ – Alvopetro Energy Ltd. (TSXV:ALV) (OTCQX: ALVOF) announces a US$0.08 per common share dividend, our year-end 2021 financial results, filing of our annual information form and an operational update.

All references herein to $ refer to United States dollars, unless otherwise stated and all tabular amounts are in thousands of United States dollars, except as otherwise noted.

President and CEO, Corey Ruttan commented:

“With ongoing strong performance from our Caburé project, along with the recent increase in our realized natural gas pricing to US$11.28/Mcf, we are pleased to announce a 33% increase in our quarterly dividend.  We continue to target a balanced and disciplined stakeholder return and organic growth model and on March 2, 2022, we commenced our 2022 drilling campaign targeting the first of two, high-impact, conventional natural gas exploration prospects.”

Dividend

Alvopetro announces that our Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.08 per common share, payable in cash on April 14, 2022, to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 31, 2022. This dividend is designated as an “eligible dividend” for Canadian income tax purposes.  Alvopetro’s cash flows are linked to US dollars and as such, dividends are being paid in US dollars.

Dividend payments to non-residents of Canada will be subject to withholding taxes at the Canadian statutory rate of 25%.  Shareholders may be entitled to a reduced withholding tax rate under a tax treaty between their country of residence and Canada.  For further information, see Alvopetro’s website at  https://alvopetro.com/Dividends-Non-resident-Shareholders.

Operational Update

Our average daily sales have continued at consistent rates following our fourth quarter 2021 average of 2,432 boepd, averaging 2,509 boepd in January 2022 and 2,479 boepd in February 2022.  Effective February 1, 2022, our natural gas price increased 48% to BRL1.94/m3 ($11.28/Mcf based on our average heat content and the average February 2022 BRL/USD foreign exchange rate of 5.1966).  Our new contracted price is effective for all natural gas sales from February 1 to July 31, 2022.

On March 2, 2022, we spud our 182-C1 well on Block 182, the first of two conventional natural gas exploration wells planned for 2022.  We anticipate the well will take approximately 42 days to drill and thereafter the rig will move to the 183-B1 well on the adjacent Block 183. Following these two wells, we plan to drill our first fit-for-purpose Murucututu development well. 

We have now completed construction of our Murucututu pipeline and are currently installing field production facilities.  We expect our 183(1) well to be tied-in and on production in the second quarter.

December 31, 2021 Reserves and Net Asset Value

On March 8, 2022, Alvopetro announced its December 31, 2021 reserves based upon the independent reserve assessment and evaluation prepared by GLJ Ltd. (“GLJ”) dated March 7, 2022 with an effective date of December 31, 2021 (the “GLJ Reserves and Resources Report”). The GLJ Report assigned total proved plus probable (“2P”) reserves of 8.7 MMboe and a before tax value discounted at 10% of $297.0 million.  Following this evaluation and based on updated year-end 2021 financial results, the Company’s net asset value based on its 2P reserves is $299.6 million, reflecting CAD$11.18 per common share. The GLJ Reserves and Resources Report also included an assessment of the Murucututu natural gas resource which has not been reflected in the table below, with risked best estimate contingent resource of 3.5 MMboe and risked best estimate prospective resource of 12.1 MMboe (before tax net present value, discounted at 10% of $60.7 million and $208.7 million, respectively).

 

 

Base Net Asset Value (in $000s, other than per share amounts)

 

 

Total Proved

 

Total Proved plus Probable

Total Proved plus Probable plus Possible

Before Tax Net Present Value(a), discounted at 10%

173,759

297,000

416,723

Working capital, net of debt – as of December 31, 2021(b)

2,552

2,552

2,552

Total Base Net Asset Value (b)(c)(d)

176,311

299,552

419,275

CAD$ per basic share(e)

6.58

11.18

15.65

(a)

See “Oil and Natural Gas Reserves” section within this new release

(b)

See “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” section within this new release

(c)

Alvopetro has reflected the contractual obligations pursuant to our September 2018 Gas Treatment Agreement with Enerflex, including the equipment rental component of the agreement which is treated as a right of use asset and reflected as a capital lease obligation on our financial statements. As the future capital lease payments reduce the forecasted future net revenue in all reserves categories, the capital lease obligation as reflected on the Company’s financial statements has not been included in the table above.

(d)

The net asset value reflected above includes the present value of before tax cash flows from the Company’s reserves only. No amounts have been included with respect to contingent or prospective resource volumes.

(e)

Converted to CAD$ based on the exchange rate on March 17, 2022. The per share calculation is computed based on 33.9 million common shares outstanding as of March 17, 2022.

Financial and Operating Highlights – Fourth Quarter of 2021

  • Our daily sales averaged 2,432 boepd in Q4 2021, a 25% increase from the Q4 2020 average of 1,950 boepd and a 1% decrease from the Q3 2021 average of 2,459 boepd. In Q4 2021, 95.7% of our sales volumes were from natural gas with 4.2% from NGLs from condensate and the remainder from crude oil sales.
  • Our operating netback of $36.38 per boe in Q4 2021 improved 30% from Q4 2020 due to an increase in our realized natural gas price and improved commodity prices overall, offset by increased royalties. The current quarter’s netback was consistent with Q3 2021.
  • We reported net income of $2.6 million, compared to $2.8 million in Q4 2020 and $1.5 million in Q3 2021.
  • We generated funds flow from operations in Q4 2021 of $6.5 million ($0.19 per basic share and $0.18 per diluted share) and cash flows from operating activities of $7.1 million ($0.21 per basic share and $0.20 per diluted share).
  • Capital expenditures totaled $1.5 million, focused on our Murucututu/Gomo pipeline extension.
  • We declared our second dividend of $0.06 per share to shareholders of record on December 30, 2021. Total dividends of $2.0 million were paid on January 14, 2022.
  • As at December 31, 2021, we had a net working capital surplus of $9.1 million, including $11.5 million in cash and cash equivalents. The Company’s working capital net of our credit facility balance of $6.5 million improved to $2.6 million, compared to $0.3 million as of September 30, 2021. In February 2022, we repaid an additional $1.5 million of our Credit Facility, bringing the outstanding balance to $5.0 million.

Financial and Operating Highlights – Year-End 2021

  • Our annual sales averaged 2,358 boepd (95.5% natural gas, 4.4% NGLs from condensate and marginal crude oil production).
  • We recognized net income of $6.6 million, compared to $5.7 million in 2020.
  • We generated funds flow from operations of $24.6 million ($0.74 per basic share on $0.71 per diluted share) compared to $6.2 million in 2020 ($0.19 per basic share and $0.18 per diluted share).
  • Capital expenditures totaled $4.5 million, focused on our Murucututu pipeline extension and our initial costs for our planned 2022 exploration program.
  • We completed a share restructuring in September 2021, involving a share repurchase and a consolidation resulting in a reduction in our common shares outstanding from 99.8 million to 32.9 million immediately following the restructuring.
  • We commenced quarterly dividend payments of $0.06/share, with dividends declared to shareholders of record on September 29, 2021 and December 30, 2021.

The following table provides a summary of Alvopetro’s financial and operating results for periods noted. The consolidated financial statements with the Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) are available on our website at www.alvopetro.com and will be available on the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval (SEDAR) website at www.sedar.com.

As at and Three MonthsEnded December 31,

Year EndedDecember 31,

2021

2020

Change (%)

2021

2020

Financial

($000s, except where noted)

Natural gas, oil and condensate sales

9,896

5,887

68

34,980

11,308

Net income

2,575

2,754

(6)

6,614

5,706

      Per share – basic ($)

0.08

0.08

–

0.20

0.17

      Per share – diluted ($)(1)

0.07

0.08

(13)

0.19

0.16

Cash flow from operating activities

7,088

3,124

127

24,291

3,061

      Per share – basic ($)

0.21

0.09

133

0.73

0.09

      Per share – diluted ($)(1)

0.20

0.09

122

0.70

0.09

Funds flow from operations (2)

6,480

4,252

52

24,637

6,216

      Per share – basic ($)

0.19

0.13

46

0.74

0.19

      Per share – diluted ($)(1)

0.18

0.13

38

0.71

0.18

Capital expenditures(3)

1,470

452

225

4,513

3,814

Total assets

81,231

80,388

1

81,231

80,388

Cash and cash equivalents

11,469

5,159

122

11,469

5,159

Net working capital surplus (2)

9,097

5,539

64

9,097

5,539

Working capital, net of debt (net debt)(2) 

2,552

(9,884)

126

2,552

(9,884)

Weighted average shares outstanding (000s)

      Basic

33,824

33,086

2

33,103

32,871

      Diluted (1)

35,986

33,557

7

34,928

35,145

Operations

Natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids sales:

      Natural gas (Mcfpd)

13,966

11,163

25

13,517

5,346

      NGLs – condensate (bopd)

103

89

16

103

44

      Oil (bopd)

2

–

–

2

5

      Total (boepd)

2,432

1,950

25

2,358

940

Average realized prices(2):

      Natural gas ($/Mcf)

7.07

5.36

32

6.50

5.36

      NGL – condensate ($/bbl)

84.36

46.97

80

75.89

46.57

      Oil ($/bbl)

76.47

–

–

63.61

36.81

      Company total ($/boe)

44.22

32.82

35

40.64

32.88

Operating netback ($/boe) (2)

      Realized sales price

44.22

32.82

35

40.64

32.88

      Royalties

(4.22)

(1.51)

179

(3.61)

(2.15)

      Production expenses

(3.62)

(3.39)

7

(3.64)

(3.88)

      Operating netback

36.38

27.92

30

33.39

26.85

Notes:

(1)

The weighted average number of diluted common shares outstanding in the computation of funds flow from operations and cash flows from operating activities per share is the same as for net income per share.

(2)

See “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” section within this news release.

(3)

Includes non-cash capital expenditures of $0.4 million for the year-ended December 31, 2020.

2021 Results Webcast

Alvopetro will host a live webcast to discuss the 2021 financial results at 8:00 am Mountain time on March 18, 2022. Details for joining the event are as follows:

DATE: March 18, 2022TIME: 8:00 AM Mountain/10:00 AM EasternLINK: https://zoom.us/j/99386897923 DIAL-IN NUMBERS: https://zoom.us/u/aixrWbAbO WEBINAR ID: 993 8689 7923

The webcast will include a question and answer period. Online participants will be able to ask questions through the Zoom portal. Dial-in participants can email questions directly to socialmedia@alvopetro.com.

Corporate Presentation

Alvopetro’s updated corporate presentation is available on our website at:

http://www.alvopetro.com/corporate-presentation. 

Social Media

Follow Alvopetro on our social media channels at the following links:

Twitter – https://twitter.com/AlvopetroEnergy Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/alvopetro/ LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/company/alvopetro-energy-ltd

Alvopetro Energy Ltd.’s vision is to become a leading independent upstream and midstream operator in Brazil. Our strategy is to unlock the on-shore natural gas potential in the state of Bahia in Brazil, building off the development of our Caburé natural gas field and our strategic midstream infrastructure.

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.

All amounts contained in this new release are in United States dollars, unless otherwise stated and all tabular amounts are in thousands of United States dollars, except as otherwise noted.

Abbreviations:

2P

=

proved plus probable reserves

boepd

=

barrels of oil equivalent (“boe”) per day

bopd

=

barrels of oil and/or natural gas liquids (condensate) per day

BRL

=

Brazilian Real

CAD$

=

Canadian dollars

m3

=

cubic metre

Mboe

=

thousand barrels of oil equivalent

MMboe

=

million barrels of oil equivalent

Mcf

=

thousand cubic feet

MMcf

=

million cubic feet

MMcfpd

=

million cubic feet per day

NGLs

=

natural gas liquids

Q3 2021

=

three months ended September 30, 2021

Q4 2020

=

three months ended December 31, 2020

Q4 2021

=

three months ended December 31, 2021

Oil and Natural Gas Reserves

The disclosure in this news release summarizes certain information contained in the GLJ Reserves and Resources Report but represents only a portion of the disclosure required under NI 51-101. For additional details, see our news release dated March 8, 2022. Full disclosure with respect to the Company’s reserves as at December 31, 2021 is contained in the Company’s annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2021 which has been filed on SEDAR (www.sedar.com). All net present values in this press release are based on estimates of future operating and capital costs and GLJ’s forecast prices as of December 31, 2021. The reserves definitions used in this evaluation are the standards defined by the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (COGEH) reserve definitions and are consistent with NI 51-101 and used by GLJ. The net present values of future net revenue attributable to the Alvopetro’s reserves estimated by GLJ do not represent the fair market value of those reserves. Other assumptions and qualifications relating to costs, prices for future production and other matters are summarized herein. The recovery and reserve estimates of the Company’s reserves provided herein are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be recovered. Actual reserves may be greater than or less than the estimates provided herein. Possible reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than probable reserves. There is a 10% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the sum of proved plus probable plus possible reserves.

Contingent Resources

This news release discloses estimates of Alvopetro’s contingent resources and the net present value associated with net revenues associated with the production of such contingent resources as included in the GLJ Reserves and Resources Report. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of such contingent resources and the estimated future net revenues do not necessarily represent the fair market value of such contingent resources. Estimates of contingent resources involve additional risks over estimates of reserves. For additional details with respect to Alvopetro’s contingent resources evaluated as at December 31, 2021, see our news release dated March 8, 2022 and additional details contained in the Company’s annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2021 which has been filed on SEDAR (www.sedar.com).

Prospective Resources

This news release discloses estimates of Alvopetro’s prospective resources included in the GLJ Reserves and Resources Report. There is no certainty that any portion of the prospective resources will be discovered and even if discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion. Estimates of prospective resources involve additional risks over estimates of reserves. The accuracy of any resources estimate is a function of the quality and quantity of available data and of engineering interpretation and judgment. While resources presented herein are considered reasonable, the estimates should be accepted with the understanding that reservoir performance subsequent to the date of the estimate may justify revision, either upward or downward. For additional details with respect to Alvopetro’s prospective resources evaluated as at December 31, 2021, see our news release dated March 8, 2022 and additional details contained in the Company’s annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2021 which has been filed on SEDAR (www.sedar.com).

Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures

This news release contains references to various non-GAAP financial measures, non-GAAP ratios, capital management measures and supplementary financial measures as such terms are defined in National Instrument 52-112  Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures Disclosure.  Such measures are not recognized measures under GAAP and do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and might not be comparable to similar financial measures disclosed by other issuers. While these measures may be common in the oil and gas industry, the Company’s use of these terms may not be comparable to similarly defined measures presented by other companies. The non-GAAP and other financial measures referred to in this report should not be considered an alternative to, or more meaningful than measures prescribed by IFRS and they are not meant to enhance the Company’s reported financial performance or position. These are complementary measures that are used by management in assessing the Company’s financial performance, efficiency and liquidity and they may be used by investors or other users of this document for the same purpose. Below is a description of the non-GAAP financial measures, non-GAAP ratios, capital management measures and supplementary financial measures used in this news release. For more information with respect to financial measures which have not been defined by GAAP, including reconciliations to the closest comparable GAAP measure, see the “Non-GAAP Measures and Other Financial Measures” section of the Company’s MD&A which may be accessed through the SEDAR website at www.sedar.com.  

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Operating netback

Operating netback is calculated as natural gas, oil and condensate revenues less royalties and production expenses. This calculation is provided in the “Operating Netback” section of the Company’s MD&A using our IFRS measures. The Company’s MD&A may be accessed through the SEDAR website at SEDAR website at www.sedar.com.  Operating netback is a common metric used in the oil and gas industry used to demonstrate profitability from operations.

Net Asset Value

Net asset value is calculated as the net present value of the Company’s 2P reserves discounted at 10% (before-tax) plus the Company’s working capital net of debt as of December 31, 2021. Working capital net of debt is a capital management measure described in further detail below The Company uses net asset value as a way to reflect the Company’s aggregate value of oil and gas reserves and working capital net of debt.

Non-GAAP Financial Ratios

Operating netback per boe

Operating netback is calculated on a per unit basis, which is per barrel of oil equivalent (“boe”). It is a common non-GAAP measure used in the oil and gas industry and management believes this measurement assists in evaluating the operating performance of the Company. It is a measure of the economic quality of the Company’s producing assets and is useful for evaluating variable costs as it provides a reliable measure regardless of fluctuations in production. Alvopetro calculated operating netback per boe as operating netback divided by total sales volumes (barrels of oil equivalent).  This calculation is provided in the “Operating Netback” section of the Company’s MD&A using our IFRS measures. The Company’s MD&A may be accessed through the SEDAR website at SEDAR website at www.sedar.com.  Operating netback is a common metric used in the oil and gas industry used to demonstrate profitability from operations on a per unit basis (boe).

Funds Flow from Operations Per Share

Funds flow from operations per share is a non-GAAP ratio that includes all cash generated from operating activities and is calculated before changes in non-cash working capital, divided by the weighted the weighted average shares outstanding for the respective period. For the periods reported in this news release the cash flows from operating activities per share and funds flow from operations per share is as follows:

Three Months Ended

December 31,

Year Ended

December 31,

$ per share

2021

2020

2021

2020

Per basic share:

Cash flows from operating activities

0.21

0.09

0.73

0.09

Funds flow from operations

0.19

0.13

0.74

0.19

Per diluted share:

Cash flows from operating activities

0.20

0.09

0.70

0.09

Funds flow from operations

0.18

0.13

0.71

0.18

Net Asset Value Per Share

Net asset value is calculated as the net asset value (discussed above) divided by the total shares outstanding, which is 33,903,629 as of the date of this news release. Net asset value per share is stated in CAD$ using the March 17, 2022 USD/CAD exchange rate of 1.265.   The Company uses net asset value per share as a way to reflect the Company’s aggregate value of oil and gas reserves and working capital net of debt on a per share basis.

Capital Management Measures

Funds Flow from Operations 

Funds flow from operations is a non-GAAP capital management measure that includes all cash generated from operating activities and is calculated before changes in non-cash working capital. The most comparable GAAP measure to funds flow from operations is cash flows from operating activities. Management considers both funds flow from operations important as it helps evaluate financial performance and demonstrates the Company’s ability to generate sufficient cash to fund future growth opportunities. Funds flow from operations should not be considered an alternative to, or more meaningful than, cash flows from operating activities however management finds that the impact of working capital items on the cash flows reduces the comparability of the metric from period to period. A reconciliation of funds flow from operations to cash flows from operating activities is as follows:

Three Months Ended

December 31,

Year Ended

December 31,

2021

2020

2021

2020

Cash flows from operating activities

7,088

3,124

24,291

3,061

Add back changes in non-cash working capital

(608)

1,128

346

3,155

Funds flow from operations

6,480

4,252

24,637

6,216

Net Working Capital

Net working capital is computed as current assets less current liabilities. Net working capital is a measure of liquidity, is used to evaluate financial resources, and is calculated as follows: 

As at December 31,

2021

2020

Total current assets

17,188

8,487

Total current liabilities

(8,091)

(2,948)

Net working capital surplus

9,097

5,539

Working Capital Net of Debt (Net Debt)

Working capital net of debt is computed as net working capital surplus decreased by the carrying amount of the Credit Facility. Working capital net of debt is used by management to assess the Company’s overall financial position. As of December 31, 2021, Alvopetro’s net working capital surplus exceeds the balance outstanding on the Credit Facility.

As at December 31,

2021

2020

Net working capital surplus

9,097

5,539

Credit Facility, balance outstanding

(6,545)

(15,423)

Working capital, net of debt (net debt)

2,552

(9,884)

Supplementary Financial Measures

“Average realized natural gas price – $/Mcf” is comprised of natural gas sales as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s natural gas sales volumes.

“Average realized NGL – condensate price – $/bbl” is comprised of condensate sales as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s NGL sales volumes from condensate.

“Average realized oil price – $/bbl” is comprised of oil sales as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s oil sales volumes.

“Average realized price – $/boe” is comprised of natural gas, condensate and oil sales as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s total natural gas, condensate and oil sales volumes (barrels of oil equivalent).

“Royalties per boe” is comprised of royalties, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the total natural gas, condensate and oil sales volumes (barrels of oil equivalent).

“Production expenses per boe” is comprised of production expenses, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the total natural gas, condensate and oil sales volumes (barrels of oil equivalent).

Forward-Looking Statements and Cautionary Language

This news release contains “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The use of any of the words “will”, “expect”, “intend” and other similar words or expressions are intended to identify forward-looking information. Forward–looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties, should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of whether or not such results will be achieved. A number of factors could cause actual results to vary significantly from the expectations discussed in the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements reflect current assumptions and expectations regarding future events. Accordingly, when relying on forward-looking statements to make decisions, Alvopetro cautions readers not to place undue reliance on these statements, as forward-looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties. More particularly and without limitation, this news release contains forward-looking information concerning the plans relating to the Company’s operational activities, the expected natural gas price, gas sales and gas deliveries under Alvopetro’s long-term gas sales agreement, forecasted earnings, and the Company’s plans for dividends in the future. The forward–looking statements are based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by Alvopetro, including but not limited to equipment availability, the timing of regulatory licenses and approvals, the success of future drilling, completion, testing, recompletion and development activities, the outlook for commodity markets and ability to access capital markets, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other significant worldwide events, the performance of producing wells and reservoirs, well development and operating performance, foreign exchange rates, general economic and business conditions, weather and access to drilling locations, the availability and cost of labour and services, environmental regulation, including regulation relating to hydraulic fracturing and stimulation, the ability to monetize hydrocarbons discovered, the regulatory and legal environment and other risks associated with oil and gas operations. The reader is cautioned that assumptions used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be incorrect. Actual results achieved during the forecast period will vary from the information provided herein as a result of numerous known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors. In addition, the declaration, timing, amount and payment of future dividends remain at the discretion of the Board of Directors. Although Alvopetro believes that the expectations and assumptions on which such forward-looking information is based are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking information because Alvopetro can give no assurance that it will prove to be correct. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive. Additional information on factors that could affect the operations or financial results of Alvopetro are included in our annual information form which may be accessed on Alvopetro’s SEDAR profile at www.sedar.com. The forward-looking information contained in this news release is made as of the date hereof and Alvopetro undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless so required by applicable securities laws.

SOURCE Alvopetro Energy Ltd.

Release – Schwazze Announces Listing Of Common Shares On The NEO Exchange Under The Symbol SHWZ

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Schwazze Announces Listing Of Common Shares On The NEO Exchange Under The Symbol SHWZ

Research, News, and Market Data on Schwazze

 

DENVER, March 17, 2022 /CNW/ – Medicine Man Technologies, Inc., dba Schwazze, (OTCQX: SHWZ) (“Schwazze” or the “Company”), is pleased to announce that it has received final approval from the NEO Exchange (the “NEO”) to list the Company’s common shares onto the NEO, a tier one Canadian stock exchange based in Toronto, Ontario.  The common shares are expected to begin trading on the NEO on March 23, 2022, under the symbol SHWZ.

Schwazze is currently listed on the OTCQX and believes that the additional listing onto the NEO, enabling the Company’s common shares to be traded on a senior exchange in Canada, will provide additional exposure to an increased number of retail and institutional investors.

“The NEO listing is an important milestone for Schwazze and provides an additional platform as we bring our story to new investor audiences, and we continue to execute our proven growth playbook as an MSO with a differentiated regional position.” commented Nancy Huber, Chief Financial Officer of Schwazze. “The NEO is now setting the pace for Cannabis companies who want to attract the right institutional attention and increase their liquidity.”

Schwazze public disclosure documents are available under Schwazze’s profiles on EDGAR at www.sec.gov and on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.

About Schwazze
Schwazze (OTCQX: SHWZ) is building a premier vertically integrated regional cannabis company with assets in Colorado and New Mexico and will continue to take its operating system to other states where it can develop a differentiated regional leadership position. Schwazze is the parent company of a portfolio of leading cannabis businesses and brands spanning seed to sale. The Company is committed to unlocking the full potential of the cannabis plant to improve the human condition. Schwazze is anchored by a high- performance culture that combines customer-centric thinking and data science to test, measure, and drive decisions and outcomes. The Company’s leadership team has deep expertise in retailing, wholesaling, and building consumer brands at Fortune 500 companies as well as in the cannabis sector. Schwazze is passionate about making a difference in our communities, promoting diversity and inclusion, and doing our part to incorporate climate-conscious best practices. Medicine Man Technologies, Inc. was Schwazze’s former operating trade name. The corporate entity continues to be named Medicine Man Technologies, Inc. Schwazze derives its name from the pruning technique of a cannabis plant to enhance plant structure and promote healthy growth.

About the Neo Exchange Inc.
The Neo Exchange Inc. is Canada’s Tier 1 stock exchange for the innovation economy, bringing together investors and capital raisers within a fair, liquid, efficient, and service-oriented environment. Fully operational since June 2015, NEO puts investors first and provides access to trading across all Canadian-listed securities on a level playing field. NEO lists companies and investment products seeking an internationally recognized stock exchange that enables investor trust, quality liquidity, and broad awareness including unfettered access to market data.

Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains “forward-looking statements.” Such statements may be preceded by the words “plan,” “will,” “may,” “continue,” “predicts,” or similar words. Forward-looking statements include the Company’s expectations regarding the listing date for its common shares on the NEO and the expected benefits of listing on the NEO. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future events or performance, are based on certain assumptions, and are subject to various known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the Company’s control and cannot be predicted or quantified. Consequently, actual events and results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, risks and uncertainties associated with (i) our inability to manufacture our products and product candidates on a commercial scale on our own or in collaboration with third parties; (ii) difficulties in obtaining financing on commercially reasonable terms; (iii) changes in the size and nature of our competition; (iv) loss of one or more key executives or scientists; (v) difficulties in securing regulatory approval to market our products and product candidates; (vi) our ability to successfully execute our growth strategy in Colorado and outside the state, (vii) our ability to consummate the acquisition described in this press release or to identify and consummate future acquisitions that meet our criteria, (viii) our ability to successfully integrate acquired businesses, including the acquisition described in this press release, and realize synergies therefrom, (ix) the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, * the timing and extent of governmental stimulus programs, and (xi) the uncertainty in the application of federal, state and local laws to our business, and any changes in such lawsListing on the NEO is subject to satisfaction of the final listing conditions. The benefits of listing on the NEO depend on increased liquidity for the Company’s shareholders and exposure due to listing on a senior exchange. Such benefits may not be realized. More detailed information about the Company and the risk factors that may affect the realization of forward-looking statements is set forth in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K and its Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. Investors and security holders are urged to read these documents free of charge on the SEC’s website at http://www.sec.gov. The Company assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise its forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events or otherwise except as required by law.

SOURCE Medicine Man Technologies, Inc.

Is Cathie Woods Innovation Fund Getting a ReBoot

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  Image: Diverse Stock Photos (Flickr)


Analyst Believes Tech and Innovation are Severely Oversold

 

On Tuesday, it was reported that Cathie Wood’s Ark Innovation ETF experienced the highest amount of inflows since May of 2021. The fund returned over 10% during the week despite the Fed raising rates and guiding expectations toward continued increases. Does this mark the turnaround in the performance of innovative companies? JP Morgan’s Marko Kolanovic seems to think so.

According to a research note published on Thursday (March 17) from Marko
Kolanovic, the market segment is cheap. The thoughts of the Global Head of Macro Quantitative and Derivatives Research for the investment bank are particularly noteworthy as his recent track record in related sectors is excellent. For example, Kolanovic warned
investors in 2021 about the bubble in innovation stocks, the potential for a commodity supercycle, and even geopolitical risks in 2022. These are eye-opening credentials, considering the AARK Innovation Fund is now down more than 50%, oil is up over 50%, and an unexpected war broke out in Europe.

Here’s Why

As we step into Spring 2022, we find many innovative tech stocks that had rocketed during the pandemic, now well off their highs – some more than 80% below their peak. Stocks that investors were tripping over themselves to buy as they marched higher in late 2020 and 2021 while their businesses caught investor attention are sitting at levels Kolanovic sees as an early turning point.

In his note he indicates that he believes the sell-off overshot to the downside and a turning point will come, even though risks remain in the stock market in general, “Markets may anticipate these turning points sooner, and we think it is time to start adding risk in many areas that overshot on the downside year-to-date,” Kolanovic said.

 

What’s Included in Forecast

JPM’s quant and derivatives head believes some of the collapse has been liquidity-driven. Beaten down sectors like biotech, emerging markets, innovation, and tech were all mentioned as providing opportunities. He pointed out that many of these market segments are trading at “all-time valuation lows (including previous recessions and periods of much higher interest rates).”

Kolanovic expects “great opportunities in high-beta, beaten-down segments that include innovation, tech, biotech, emerging markets.” While investors have been focusing their concerns on inflation and a potential recession, he doesn’t believe the US is headed toward a recession – though he’s not ruling out one in Europe or a further slowdown in the US.

The caution here is that investors need to do their homework, look at professional research and know
the company.  Investors shouldn’t indiscriminately buy beaten-down tech stocks, he cautioned, as “not all assets are cheap” amid rising interest rates and a slowing US economy. “While the commodity supercycle will persist,” the strategist said, “the correction in bubble sectors is now likely finished, and geopolitical risk will likely start abating in a few weeks’ time (while a comprehensive resolution may take a few months),” Kolanovic wrote.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

 

Suggested Reading



Cathie Wood is Even More Positive About Innovative Companies with Global Turmoil

Cathie Wood Thinks if There is No Blood in Your Street, You Should Move





Michael Burry’s Public Investments in SPACs, Prisons, and Electric Hogs

IRA Investments and Small Cap Stocks

 

Sources

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-17/jpmorgan-s-kolanovic-says-market-bubble-corrections-almost-done-l0va2ffi

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/17/jpmorgans-kolanovic-says-its-time-for-investors-to-start-adding-back-risk-.html

 

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The Feds Fight Against Raging Inflation is a Process

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Why the Fed Can’t Stop Prices from Going Up Anytime Soon – But May Have More Luck Over the Long Term

 

The Federal Reserve has begun its most challenging inflation-fighting campaign in four decades. And a lot is at stake for consumers, companies, and the U.S. economy.

On March 16, 2022, the Fed raised its target interest rate by a quarter-point – to a range of 0.25% to 0.5% – the first of many increases the U.S. central bank is expected to make over the coming months. The aim is to tamp down inflation that has been running at a year-over-year pace of 7.9%, the fastest since February 1982.

The challenge for the Fed is to do this without sending the economy into recession. Some economists and observers are already raising the specter of stagflation, which means high inflation coupled with a stagnating economy.

 

This article was republished with permission from   The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of Jeffery S. Bredthauer, Associate Professor Of Finance, Banking and Real Estate, University of Nebraska Omaha.

 

As an expert on financial markets, I believe there’s good news and bad when it comes to the Fed’s upcoming battle against inflation. Let’s start with the bad.

Inflation is Worse than You Think

Inflation began accelerating in fall 2021 when a stimulus-fueled demand for goods met a COVID-19-induced drop in supply.

In all, Congress spent US$4.6 trillion trying to counter the economic effects of COVID-19 and the lockdowns. While that may have been necessary to support struggling businesses and people, it unleashed an unprecedented bump in the U.S. money supply.

At the same time, supply chains have been in disarray since early in the pandemic. Lockdowns and layoffs led to closures of factories, warehouses and shipping ports, and shortages of key components like microchips have made it harder to finish a wide range of goods, from cars to fridges. These factors have contributed to a worldwide shortage of goods and services.

Any economist will tell you that when demand exceeds supply, prices will rise too. And to make matters worse, businesses around the world have been struggling to hire more workers, which has further exacerbated supply chain problems. The labor shortage also worsens inflation because workers are able to demand higher wages, which is typically paid for with higher prices on the goods they make and the services they provide.

This clearly caught the Fed off guard, which as recently as November 2021 was calling the rise in inflation “transitory.”

And now Russia’s war in Ukraine is compounding the problems. This is mostly because of the conflict’s impact on the supply of gas and oil, but also because of the sanctions placed on Russia’s economy and the ancillary effects that will ripple throughout the global economy.

The latest inflation data, released on March 10, 2022, is for the month of February and therefore doesn’t account for the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent U.S. gas prices soaring. The prices of other commodities, such as wheat, also spiked. Russia and Ukraine produce a quarter of the world’s wheat supply.

 

Image: San Francisco, March 2022 (rulenumberone2 – Flickr)

 

Inflation Won’t be Slowing Anytime Soon

And so, the Fed has little choice but to raise interest rates – one of its few tools available to curb inflation.

But now it’s in a very tough situation. After arguably coming late to the inflation-fighting party, the Fed is now tasked with a job that seems to get harder by the day. That’s because the main drivers of today’s inflation – the war in Ukraine, the global shortage of goods and workers – are outside of its control.

So even dramatic rate hikes over the coming months, perhaps increasing rates from about zero now to 1%, will be unlikely to make an appreciable impact on inflation. This will remain true at least until supply chains begin to return to normal, which is still a ways off.

Cars and Condos

There are a few areas of the U.S. economy where the Fed could have more of an impact on inflation – eventually.

For example, demand for goods that are typically purchased with a loan, such as a house or car, is more closely tied to interest rates. The Fed’s policy of ultra-low interest rates is one key factor that has driven inflation in those sectors in recent months. As such, an increase in borrowing costs through higher interest rates should prompt a drop in demand, thus reducing inflation.

But changing consumer behavior can take time, and it’ll require more than a quarter-point increase in rates at the Fed. So consumers should expect prices to continue to climb at an above-normal pace for some time.

Higher interest rates also tend to reduce stock prices, as other investments like bonds may become more attractive to investors. This in turn may lead people invested in stock markets to reduce their spending because they feel less wealthy, which may help reduce overall demand and inflation. The effect is minimal, however, and would take time before you see the impact in prices.

The Good News

That is the bad news. The good news is that the U.S. economy has been roaring at the fastest pace in decades, and unemployment is just about down to its pre-pandemic level, which was the lowest since the 1960s.

That’s why I think it’s unlikely the U.S. will experience stagflation – as it did in the 1970s and early 1980s. A very aggressive increase in interest rates could possibly induce a recession, and lead to stagflation, but by sapping economic activity it could also bring down inflation. At the moment, a recession seems unlikely.

In my view, what the Fed is beginning to do now is less taking a big bite out of inflation and more about signaling its intent to begin the inflation battle for real. So don’t expect overall prices to come down for quite a while.

 

Suggested Reading



New Economic Variables Confound Fed’s Future Path

Money Supply is Like Caffeine for Stocks





The Detrimental Impact of Fed Policy on Savers

The importance of Dependable Energy, Even Nuclear, is Heightened in Recent War

 

Stay up to date. Follow us:

 

Release – Maple Gold Reports Updated Douay Mineral Resource Estimate Indicated Resources Increase

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Maple Gold Reports Updated Douay Mineral Resource Estimate; Indicated Resources Increase 21% To 511,000 Oz Au And Inferred Resources Increase 7% To 2,525,000 Oz Au On Limited Drilling

Research, News, and Market Data on Maple Gold Mines

 

Vancouver, British Columbia–(Newsfile Corp. – March 17, 2022) – Maple Gold Mines Ltd. (TSXV: MGM) (OTCQB: MGMLF) (FSE: M3G) (“Maple Gold” or the “Company“) is pleased to report the positive results of an updated Mineral Resource Estimate (the “2022 MRE”) for the Douay Gold Project (“Douay” or the “Project”) in Quebec, Canada, which is held by a 50/50 joint venture (the “JV”) between the Company and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited. Total contained gold ounces at Douay have increased along with further conversion from Inferred to Indicated Resources categories based on successful exploration and infill drilling, comprehensive mineralization modeling, and using higher cost and gold price assumptions compared to the RPA 2019 MRE[1].

Highlights from the 2022 MRE:

  • Pit-constrained Indicated Resources increased 21% compared to the RPA 2019 MRE1 to 511,000 ounces (“oz”) at an average grade of 1.59 grams per tonne gold (“g/t Au”) (from 422,000 oz at an average grade of 1.52 g/t Au)
  • Pit-constrained Inferred Resources increased slightly compared to the RPA 2019 MRE1 to 2,065,000 oz at an average grade of 0.94 g/t Au (from 2,045,000 oz at an average grade of 0.97 g/t Au)
  • Underground Inferred Resources increased 50% compared to the RPA 2019 MRE1 to 460,000 oz at an average grade of 1.68 g/t Au (from 307,000 oz at an average grade of 1.75 g/t Au)
  • Initial Indicated Resources in the Nika Zone (30,000 oz at an average grade of 1.13 g/t Au) and the 531 Zone (58,000 oz at an average grade of 2.85 g/t Au), resulting from significant intercepts[2] from the JV’s first drill campaign (see Figure 1 for zone locations)
  • Mineralized zones at Douay remain open for expansion and are largely untested below an average vertical drill depth of approximately 350 metres (“m”) (see Figure 2)
  • Ongoing drilling at Douay is primarily focused on exploration targets in areas with lateral and depth expansion potential that are not part of the 2022 MRE

Discovery Costs

Since the RPA 2019 MRE, the Company and the JV have incurred an aggregate of approximately US$6.1 million in direct exploration expenditures. This equates to a discovery cost of approximately US$23/oz Au for the incremental resources defined in the 2022 MRE.

“We completed two modest drill programs in 2020 amid a global pandemic and followed that up with a roughly 10,000-m maiden JV drill campaign in 2021 that, in line with our expectations, successfully converted Inferred to Indicated ounces and ultimately increased the overall gold endowment at Douay,” commented Matthew Hornor, President and CEO of Maple Gold. “Targeted infill drilling demonstrates the potential for future resource conversion within the currently defined mineralized zones and continues to de-risk the deposit; however, the updated model that underpins the 2022 MRE indicates significant room for growth. Looking ahead, the Company is targeting larger step-out and deeper drilling along the full extent of the Douay resource area.”

The 2022 MRE is based on a total Douay drill database of 674 holes (241,626 m) within the resource area, of which 38 holes (15,647 m) were completed by the Company and the JV between 2019-2021. Approximately 6,200 m of drilling has been completed by the JV since the 2022 MRE and roughly 10,000 m has been approved and permitted for future drilling, with additional step-out and deeper holes planned. For further clarity, Fall 2021 and Winter 2022 drilling results at Douay are not included in the 2022 MRE.

The 2022 MRE was independently prepared by SLR Consulting (Canada) Ltd. (“SLR”) and has an effective date of March 17, 2022. A technical report is being prepared in accordance with National Instrument 43-101 (“NI 43-101”) and will be available on the Company’s website and SEDAR within 45 days of the date of this press release.

Table 1 – Douay Resource Summary – March 17, 2022

Resource Category Tonnes
(Mt)		 Grade
(g/t Au)		 Contained Metal
(000 oz Au)
Pit-Constrained Mineral Resources (0.45 g/t Au cut-off)
Indicated 10.0 1.59 511
Inferred 68.2 0.94 2,065
Underground Mineral Resources (1.15 g/t Au cut-off)
Inferred 8.5 1.68 460
Total Mineral Resources
Indicated 10.0 1.59 511
Inferred 76.7 1.02 2,525

 

Table 2 – Douay Pit-Constrained & Underground Resource Summary by Zone

  Resource Category Domain Tonnes
(Mt)		 Grade
(g/t Au)		 Contained Metal
(000 oz Au)
Pit-Constrained Mineral Resources (0.45 g/t Au cut-off)
  Indicated Porphyry 4.4 0.98 138
 
Douay West 4.2 2.13 286
 
Nika 0.8 1.13 30
 
531 0.6 2.85 58
  Total Pit-Constrained Indicated 10.0 1.59 511
  Inferred Porphyry 48.4 0.89 1,380
 
Douay West 2.3 1.16 87
 
531 4.8 1.38 212
 
Main Zone 0.5 1.16 17
 
North West 3.1 1.12 113
 
Nika 5.1 0.87 143
 
Central Zone 0.1 0.88 4
 
Zone 10 1.2 1.21 48
 
Zone 20 2.6 0.72 60
  Total Pit-Constrained Inferred 68.2 0.94 2,065
 
Underground Mineral Resources (1.15 g/t Au cut-off)
  Inferred Porphyry 3.0 1.62 158
 
Douay West 1.4 1.77 82
 
531 1.4 1.80 79
 
Main Zone 1.4 1.63 72
 
North West 0.2 1.60 12
 
Central Zone 0.4 2.02 28
 
Nika 0.6 1.48 28
  Total Underground Inferred 8.5 1.68 460

 

Notes to Douay 2022 MRE Tables:

  1. The 2022 MRE is compliant with Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum (“CIM”) Definition ?Standards (2014) incorporated by reference in NI 43-101. The effective date for the Mineral Resource Estimate is March 17, 2022.
  2. Numbers may not add due to rounding.
  3. A minimum mining width of 3 m was applied to the Mineral Resource wireframes. The three-dimensional (3D) wireframe models were generated using a nominal 0.1 g/t Au threshold value. Prior to compositing to 3 m lengths, high gold values were cut for each zone individually.
  4. Bulk density was interpolated for Nika, Porphyry, and 531 zones on a block per block basis using assayed values. For all other zones, bulk density ranging between 2.72 t/m3 and 2.88 t/m3 was assigned to Mineral Resources based on the zone.
  5. Pit-constrained Mineral Resources are reported above a cut-off grade of 0.45 g/t Au and underground Mineral Resources are reported with constraining shapes which were generated using a 1.15 g/t Au cut-off value and include low grade blocks falling within the mineable shapes.
  6. Pit-constrained Mineral Resources are reported within a preliminary pit shell using assumed mining costs of C$3.00/t mined (rock) and C$2.30/t mined (overburden), processing cost of C$9.10/t milled, G&A cost of C$2.70/t milled, and a gold recovery of 90%.
  7. The Whittle pit shell used to estimate Mineral Resources used a long-term gold price of US$1,800/oz and a US$/C$ exchange rate of 0.80. However, the implied gold price for the Mineral Resources reported at the applied cut-off grade of 0.45 g/t would be significantly lower.
  8. Mineral Resources located outside the pit shell were reported on the basis of a potential underground mining operation at a gold cut-off grade of 1.15 g/t Au, based on a mining cost of C$63/t and the same processing and G&A cost assumptions listed above.
  9. Mineral Resources are not Mineral Reserves and have not demonstrated economic viability. There has been insufficient exploration to define the Inferred Resources tabulated above as an Indicated or Measured Mineral Resource. There is no guarantee that any part of the mineral resources discussed herein will be converted into a mineral reserve in the future.

Table 3 – Douay Pit-Constrained Indicated & Inferred Resource Sensitivity Table

Indicated Mineral Resources Inferred Mineral Resources
Cut-off Grade Tonnes Grade Contained Metal Cut-off Grade Tonnes Grade Contained Metal
(g/t Au) (Mt) (g/t Au) (000 oz Au) (g/t Au) (Mt) (g/t Au) (000 oz Au)
0.25 13.3 1.28 547 0.25 122.6 0.67 2,657
0.3 12.3 1.36 539 0.3 105.1 0.74 2,503
0.35 11.4 1.44 530 0.35 90.4 0.81 2,349
0.4 10.7 1.52 520 0.4 78.3 0.88 2,204
0.45 10.0 1.59 511 0.45 68.2 0.94 2,065
0.5 9.4 1.66 502 0.5 59.7 1.01 1,936
0.55 8.8 1.74 492 0.55 52.5 1.08 1,814
0.6 8.3 1.82 482 0.6 46.4 1.14 1,701

 

Notes to Douay 2022 MRE Sensitivity Table:

  1. Listed Au grades and tonnes are shown for comparison purposes only, and the reader should refer to Table 1 for the official Mineral Resource tabulation.

Table 4 – SLR 2022 MRE Compared to RPA 2019 MRE

Category SLR 2022 MRE RPA 2019 MRE Variance
Tonnes
(Mt)		 Au Grade
(g/t)		 Contained Metal
(000 oz Au)		 Tonnes
(Mt)		 Au Grade
(g/t)		 Contained Metal
(000 oz Au)		 Tonnes
(Mt)		 Au Grade
(g/t)		 Contained Metal
(000 oz Au)
Pit-Constrained Mineral Resources








Indicated 10.0 1.59 511 8.6 1.52 422 16% 5% 21%
Inferred 68.2 0.94 2,065 65.8 0.97 2,045 4% (3%) 1%
Underground Mineral Resources








Inferred 8.5 1.68 460 5.4 1.75 307 57% (4%) 50%
Total Mineral Resources








Indicated 10.0 1.59 511 8.6 1.52 422 16% 5% 21%
Inferred 76.7 1.02 2,525 71.2 1.03 2,352 8% (1%) 7%

 

Notes to Douay MRE Comparison Table:

  1. Listed Au grades and tonnes are shown for comparison purposes only, and the reader should refer to Table 1 for the official Mineral Resource tabulation.
  2. Pit-constrained Mineral Resources for both the SLR 2022 MRE and RPA 2019 MRE are reported above a cut-off grade of 0.45 g/t Au.
  3. Underground Mineral Resources are reported above a 1.15 g/t Au cut-off grade for the SLR 2022 MRE compared to a 1.0 g/t Au cut-off grade for the RPA 2019 MRE.
  4. The Whittle pit shell used to estimate Mineral Resources in the SLR 2022 MRE used a long-term gold price of US$1,800/oz and a US$/C$ exchange rate of 0.80 compared to a long-term gold price of US$1,500 and a US$/C$ exchange rate of 0.80 used in the RPA 2019 MRE. However, the implied gold price for the Mineral Resources reported at the applied cut-off grade of 0.45 g/t would be significantly lower.
  5. For additional details on the RPA 2019 MRE, please refer to the Company’s press release dated October 24, 2019 which can be found on the Company’s website (www.maplegoldmines.com).



Figure 1: Douay oblique view showing SLR 2022 resource block model.

To view an enhanced version of Figure 1, please visit:
https://orders.newsfilecorp.com/files/3077/117210_2b3f42bfa45b7afe_001full.jpg



Figure 2: NW-SE longitudinal section showing distribution of below-pit-shell underground blocks and resource expansion potential at depth. Other mine/project information is shown for reference only.

To view an enhanced version of Figure 2, please visit:
https://orders.newsfilecorp.com/files/3077/117210_2b3f42bfa45b7afe_002full.jpg

Qualified Person

The Mineral Resources disclosed in this press release have been estimated by Ms. Marie-Christine Gosselin, P.Geo., an employee of SLR and independent of Maple Gold Mines. By virtue of her education and relevant experience, Ms. Gosselin is a “Qualified Person” for the purpose of NI 43-101. The Mineral Resources have been classified in accordance with CIM Definition Standards for Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves (May 2014). Ms. Gosselin, P.Geo. has read and approved the contents of this press release as it pertains to the disclosed Mineral Resource estimates. Further information about key assumptions, parameters, and methods used to estimate the Mineral Resources, as well as legal, political, environmental, or other risks that may affect the Mineral Resource estimate will be included in a NI 43-101 Technical Report to be filed on SEDAR within 45 days following the date of this press release.

The scientific and technical data contained in this press release was reviewed and prepared under the supervision of Mr. Fred Speidel, M. Sc., P. Geo., Vice-President Exploration of Maple Gold. Mr. Speidel is a Qualified Person under NI 43-101. Mr. Speidel has verified the data related to the exploration information disclosed in this press release through his direct participation in the work.

Quality Assurance (QA) and Quality Control (QC)

The JV implements strict Quality Assurance (“QA”) and Quality Control (“QC”) protocols at Douay covering the planning and placing of drill holes in the field; drilling and retrieving the NQ-sized drill core; drillhole surveying; core transport to the Douay Camp; core logging by qualified personnel; sampling and bagging of core for analysis; transport of core from site to the Val-d’Or, QC, SGS laboratory; sample preparation for assaying; and analysis, recording and final statistical vetting of results. For a complete description of protocols, please visit the Company’s QA/QC webpage at www.maplegoldmines.com.

About Maple Gold

Maple Gold Mines Ltd. is a Canadian advanced exploration company in a 50/50 joint venture with Agnico Eagle Mines Limited to jointly advance the district-scale Douay and Joutel gold projects located in Quebec’s prolific Abitibi Greenstone Gold Belt. The projects benefit from exceptional infrastructure access and boast ~400 km2 of highly prospective ground including an established gold resource at Douay (SLR 2022) that holds significant expansion potential as well as the past-producing Eagle, Telbel and Eagle West mines at Joutel. In addition, the Company holds an exclusive option to acquire 100% of the Eagle Mine Property.

The district-scale property package also hosts a significant number of regional exploration targets along a 55 km strike length of the Casa Berardi Deformation Zone that have yet to be tested through drilling, making the project ripe for new gold and polymetallic discoveries. The Company is well capitalized and is currently focused on carrying out exploration and drill programs to grow resources and make new discoveries to establish an exciting new gold district in the heart of the Abitibi. For more information, please visit www.maplegoldmines.com.

ON BEHALF OF MAPLE GOLD MINES LTD.

“Matthew Hornor”

B. Matthew Hornor, President & CEO

For Further Information Please Contact:

Mr. Joness Lang
Executive Vice-President
Cell: 778.686.6836
Email: jlang@maplegoldmines.com

Mr. Kiran Patankar
SVP, Growth Strategy
Cell: 604.935.9577
Email: kpatankar@maplegoldmines.com

NEITHER THE TSX VENTURE EXCHANGE NOR ITS REGULATION SERVICES PROVIDER (AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED IN THE POLICIES OF THE TSX VENTURE EXCHANGE) ACCEPTS RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF THIS PRESS RELEASE.

Forward-Looking Statements:

This press release contains “forward-looking information” and “forward-looking statements” (collectively referred to as “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation in Canada, including statements about exploration work and results from current and future work programs. Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, uncertainties and management’s best estimate of future events. Actual events or results could differ materially from the Company’s expectations and projections. Investors are cautioned that forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. For a more detailed discussion of such risks and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, refer to Maple Gold Mines Ltd.’s filings with Canadian securities regulators available on www.sedar.com or the Company’s website at www.maplegoldmines.com. The Company does not intend, and expressly disclaims any intention or obligation to, update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

1 For additional details on the RPA 2019 MRE, please refer to the Company’s press release dated October 24, 2019 which can be found on the Company’s website (www.maplegoldmines.com).
2 Please refer to the Company’s press releases dated May 26, 2021 and September 9, 2021.

Quantifying the Pandemics Impact on Disposition

Posted on by Admin


Pandemic Mood: Much Worse than a Bad Monday

 

Peter Dizikes | MIT News
Office

The Covid-19 pandemic has been depressing, demoralizing, and stressful for people around the world. But is there any way to measure exactly how bad it has made everyone feel?

A new study led by MIT researchers attempts just that, through a massive examination of hundreds of millions social media posts in about 100 countries. The research, which analyzes the language terms used in social media, finds a pronounced drop in positive public sentiment after the pandemic set in during early 2020 — with a subsequent, incremental, halting return to prepandemic status.

To put that downturn in perspective, consider a prepandemic fact that the same kind of analysis uncovered: Typically, people express the most upbeat emotions on social media on weekends, and the most negative ones on Monday. Worldwide, the onset of the pandemic induced a negative turn in sentiment 4.7 times as large as the traditional weekend-Monday gap. Thus the early pandemic months were like a really, really bad Monday, on aggregate, globally, for social media users.

“The takeaway here is that the pandemic itself caused a huge emotional toll, four to five times the variation in sentiment observed in a normal week,” says Siqi Zheng, an MIT professor and co-author of a new paper detailing the study’s results.

The paper, “Global evidence of expressed sentiment alterations during the Covid-19 pandemic,” appears today in Nature Human Behaviour.

 

To conduct the study, the researchers examined 654 million location-identified social media posts from Twitter in about 100 countries. The posts appeared between Jan. 1, 2020, and May 31, 2020, an early phase of the global pandemic.

The researchers used natural-language processing software to evaluate the content of the social media, and examined the language of pandemic-period posts in relation to historical norms. Having previously studied the effects of pollution, extreme weather, and natural disasters on public sentiment, they found that the pandemic produced bigger changes in mood than those other circumstances.

“The reaction to the pandemic was also three to four times the change in response to extreme temperatures,” Fan observes. “The pandemic shock is even larger than the days when there is a hurricane in a region.”

The biggest drops in sentiment occurred in Australia, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Colombia. The countries least affected by the pandemic in these terms were Bahrain, Botswana, Greece, Oman, and Tunisia.

The study also revealed a potentially surprising fact about temporary lockdown policies — namely, that lockdowns did not appear to have much of an effect on the public mood.

“You can’t expect lockdowns to have the same effect on every country, and the distribution of responses is quite wide,” says Fan. “But we found the responses actually largely centered around a very small positive reaction [to lockdowns]. … It’s definitely not the overwhelmingly negative impact on people that might be expected.”

As to why people might have reacted like this, Zheng says, “On the one hand, lockdown policies might make people feel secure, and not as scared. On the other hand, in a lockdown when you cannot have social activities, it’s another emotional stress. The impact of lockdown policies perhaps runs in two directions.”

Because many factors might concurrently affect public sentiment during a lockdown, the researchers compared the mood of countries during lockdowns to those with similar characteristics that simultaneously did not enact the same policies.

The scholars also evaluated patterns of sentiment recovery during the early 2020 period, finding that some countries took as long as 29 days to erase half of the dropoff in sentiment they experienced; 18 percent of countries did not recover to their prepandemic sentiment level.

The new paper is part of the Global Sentiment project in Zheng’s Sustainable Urbanization Lab, which studies public sentiment as expressed through social media, rather than public-opinion polling.

“The traditional approach is to use surveys to measure well-being or happiness,” Zheng observes. “But a survey has smaller sample size and low frequency. This a real-time measure of people’s sentiment.”

Suggested Reading



Impact of Physical Nearness on Twitter Posts

Bond Market Understanding is Again Critical for Stock Investors





Covid-19, Scary vs. Dangerous (July 2020)

Michael Burry says COVID-19 Cure Worse than the Disease (April 2020)

 

Stay up to date. Follow us:

 

Quantifying the Pandemic’s Impact on Disposition

Posted on by Admin


Pandemic Mood: Much Worse than a Bad Monday

 

Peter Dizikes | MIT News
Office

The Covid-19 pandemic has been depressing, demoralizing, and stressful for people around the world. But is there any way to measure exactly how bad it has made everyone feel?

A new study led by MIT researchers attempts just that, through a massive examination of hundreds of millions social media posts in about 100 countries. The research, which analyzes the language terms used in social media, finds a pronounced drop in positive public sentiment after the pandemic set in during early 2020 — with a subsequent, incremental, halting return to prepandemic status.

To put that downturn in perspective, consider a prepandemic fact that the same kind of analysis uncovered: Typically, people express the most upbeat emotions on social media on weekends, and the most negative ones on Monday. Worldwide, the onset of the pandemic induced a negative turn in sentiment 4.7 times as large as the traditional weekend-Monday gap. Thus the early pandemic months were like a really, really bad Monday, on aggregate, globally, for social media users.

“The takeaway here is that the pandemic itself caused a huge emotional toll, four to five times the variation in sentiment observed in a normal week,” says Siqi Zheng, an MIT professor and co-author of a new paper detailing the study’s results.

The paper, “Global evidence of expressed sentiment alterations during the Covid-19 pandemic,” appears today in Nature Human Behaviour.

 

To conduct the study, the researchers examined 654 million location-identified social media posts from Twitter in about 100 countries. The posts appeared between Jan. 1, 2020, and May 31, 2020, an early phase of the global pandemic.

The researchers used natural-language processing software to evaluate the content of the social media, and examined the language of pandemic-period posts in relation to historical norms. Having previously studied the effects of pollution, extreme weather, and natural disasters on public sentiment, they found that the pandemic produced bigger changes in mood than those other circumstances.

“The reaction to the pandemic was also three to four times the change in response to extreme temperatures,” Fan observes. “The pandemic shock is even larger than the days when there is a hurricane in a region.”

The biggest drops in sentiment occurred in Australia, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Colombia. The countries least affected by the pandemic in these terms were Bahrain, Botswana, Greece, Oman, and Tunisia.

The study also revealed a potentially surprising fact about temporary lockdown policies — namely, that lockdowns did not appear to have much of an effect on the public mood.

“You can’t expect lockdowns to have the same effect on every country, and the distribution of responses is quite wide,” says Fan. “But we found the responses actually largely centered around a very small positive reaction [to lockdowns]. … It’s definitely not the overwhelmingly negative impact on people that might be expected.”

As to why people might have reacted like this, Zheng says, “On the one hand, lockdown policies might make people feel secure, and not as scared. On the other hand, in a lockdown when you cannot have social activities, it’s another emotional stress. The impact of lockdown policies perhaps runs in two directions.”

Because many factors might concurrently affect public sentiment during a lockdown, the researchers compared the mood of countries during lockdowns to those with similar characteristics that simultaneously did not enact the same policies.

The scholars also evaluated patterns of sentiment recovery during the early 2020 period, finding that some countries took as long as 29 days to erase half of the dropoff in sentiment they experienced; 18 percent of countries did not recover to their prepandemic sentiment level.

The new paper is part of the Global Sentiment project in Zheng’s Sustainable Urbanization Lab, which studies public sentiment as expressed through social media, rather than public-opinion polling.

“The traditional approach is to use surveys to measure well-being or happiness,” Zheng observes. “But a survey has smaller sample size and low frequency. This a real-time measure of people’s sentiment.”

Suggested Reading



Impact of Physical Nearness on Twitter Posts

Bond Market Understanding is Again Critical for Stock Investors





Covid-19, Scary vs. Dangerous (July 2020)

Michael Burry says COVID-19 Cure Worse than the Disease (April 2020)

 

Stay up to date. Follow us: