Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – Introducing 2021 EBITDA Estimate and Raising Price Target

Monday, November 02, 2020

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

Introducing 2021 EBITDA Estimate and Raising Price Target

Orion Group Holdings, based in Houston, Texas, is a specialty construction company within the Marine and Industrial Construction sectors, with operations focused in the continental United States and Caribbean. Revenue is split roughly 50/50 between a Marine Construction segment that provides marine facility, pipeline and structural construction services and a Commercial Concrete segment that provides turnkey concrete services in the light commercial and structural construction markets.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    We were looking for color on the 3Q2020 call in several key areas and there were some noteworthy items discussed. Please see page two for details.

    4Q2020 EBITDA guidance of $10-$12 million in line with expectations.  Fine-tuning 2020 EBITDA estimate of $52.3 million and introducing 2021 EBITDA estimate of $52.3 million. Flat outlook, but profitability remains strong. Looking for free operating cash flow of $30.5 million ($1.01/share) in 2020 and $15.3 million ($0.50/share) in 2021. Positive free cash flow is driving leverage down, and …



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Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – Another Strong Quarter – Concrete Pours It In

Thursday, October 29, 2020

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

Another Strong Quarter – Concrete Pours It In

Orion Group Holdings, based in Houston, Texas, is a specialty construction company within the Marine and Industrial Construction sectors, with operations focused in the continental United States and Caribbean. Revenue is split roughly 50/50 between a Marine Construction segment that provides marine facility, pipeline and structural construction services and a Commercial Concrete segment that provides turnkey concrete services in the light commercial and structural construction markets.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Another strong quarter driven by solid execution, especially in Concrete. 3Q2020 gross profit of $22.5 million and adjusted EBITDA of $17.0 million easily beat our estimates of $17.7 million and $10.2 million, respectively. Revenue was 10% higher than expected, and gross margin of 11.9% and EBITDA margin of 9.0% were ~220-310 basis points better than our estimates. Concrete profitability was strong for the second consecutive quarter and Marine profitability remained elevated due to strong execution and solid equipment utilization.

    Today’s 3Q2020 call at 10am EST should be well received.  Call number is 201-493-6739 and code is Orion Group Holdings. We will be looking for color on the call in several key areas: Corpus Christi accident update, including liability insurance coverage; extent of emergency work on Pier 58 in Seattle; tone of 4Q2020 bidding activity in both sectors; low bids pending award and backlog outlook given …



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ACCO Brands Corporation (ACCO) – Post Call Commentary and Updated Models

Thursday, October 29, 2020

ACCO Brands Corporation (ACCO)

Post Call Commentary and Updated Models

ACCO Brands Corporation designs, manufactures, sources, markets, and sells office products, academic supplies, and calendar products primarily in the United States, Canada, Northern Europe, Brazil, Australia, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: ACCO Brands North America, ACCO Brands EMEA, and ACCO Brands International. The company offers office products, such as stapling, binding and laminating equipment, and related consumable supplies, as well as shredders and whiteboards; and academic products, including notebooks, folders, decorative calendars, and stationery products. It also provides private label products, as well as business machine maintenance and repair services. The company offers its business, academic, and calendar product lines under the Artline, AT-A-GLANCE, Derwent, Esselte, Five Star, GBC, Hilroy, Leitz, Marbig, Mead, NOBO, Quartet, Rapid, Rexel, Swingline, Tilibra, Wilson Jones, and other brand names. In addition, it designs, sources, distributes, markets, and sells accessories for laptop and desktop computers, and tablets comprising security products; input devices, such as presenters, mice, and trackballs; ergonomic aids, including foot and wrist rests; docking stations; and other personal computers and tablet accessories under the Kensington, Microsaver, and ClickSafe brand names. The company sells its products to consumers and commercial end-users primarily through resellers, including traditional office supply resellers, wholesalers, mass merchandisers, and retailers, as well as directly to consumers through on-line and direct mail. ACCO Brands Corporation is headquartered in Lake Zurich, Illinois.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Ongoing COVID Impacts. COVID-19 continued to make its presence felt in ACCO’s third quarter. Continuing work from home arrangements, high unemployment, and low business confidence negatively impacted the commercial side of the business in many geographies, while delayed and/or remote learning impacted the back-to-school season. In fact, management estimated that some 70% of all U.S. students were remote learning and back-to-school sales declined approximately 5% year-over-year in the second and third quarters combined.

    But New Products and Categories Continue to Shine.  Kensington saw its revenues more than double year-over-year due to a large computer accessories contract. Demand for TruSens air purifiers continues to be strong. In EMEA, shredders, air purifiers, DIY tools, and computer accessories all showed growth …



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ACCO Brands Corporation (ACCO) – A Third Quarter Beat

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

ACCO Brands Corporation (ACCO)

A Third Quarter Beat

ACCO Brands Corporation designs, manufactures, sources, markets, and sells office products, academic supplies, and calendar products primarily in the United States, Canada, Northern Europe, Brazil, Australia, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: ACCO Brands North America, ACCO Brands EMEA, and ACCO Brands International. The company offers office products, such as stapling, binding and laminating equipment, and related consumable supplies, as well as shredders and whiteboards; and academic products, including notebooks, folders, decorative calendars, and stationery products. It also provides private label products, as well as business machine maintenance and repair services. The company offers its business, academic, and calendar product lines under the Artline, AT-A-GLANCE, Derwent, Esselte, Five Star, GBC, Hilroy, Leitz, Marbig, Mead, NOBO, Quartet, Rapid, Rexel, Swingline, Tilibra, Wilson Jones, and other brand names. In addition, it designs, sources, distributes, markets, and sells accessories for laptop and desktop computers, and tablets comprising security products; input devices, such as presenters, mice, and trackballs; ergonomic aids, including foot and wrist rests; docking stations; and other personal computers and tablet accessories under the Kensington, Microsaver, and ClickSafe brand names. The company sells its products to consumers and commercial end-users primarily through resellers, including traditional office supply resellers, wholesalers, mass merchandisers, and retailers, as well as directly to consumers through on-line and direct mail. ACCO Brands Corporation is headquartered in Lake Zurich, Illinois.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    3Q20 Results. Revenue of $444.1 million declined 12.2% y-o-y with comp sales off 12.3%. GAAP net income totaled $18.8 million, or $0.20 per share, compared to $28.0 million, or $0.28, last year. Adjusted net income was $18.1 million, or $0.19 per share, versus $31.3 million, or $0.32 per share, in 3Q19. Quarterly results were negatively impacted by the COVID crisis, which reduced revenue and operating leverage. Sales were better than expected and profit was at the high end of guidance. We had forecast revenue at $405 million and adjusted net income of $0.13, while consensus was $410 million and $0.15, respectively.

    Cost Reductions.  Once again, savings from cost reductions drove profits. Cost reduction actions reduced 3Q expenses by some $20 million, above the $11 million previously anticipated, and year-to-date cost savings were $63 million as management swiftly adjusted to the COVID operating environment. In the fourth quarter, the company expects to achieve an additional $15 million of cost savings …



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Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – 3Q2020 Preview – Progress Looks On Track

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

3Q2020 Preview – Progress Looks On Track

Orion Group Holdings, based in Houston, Texas, is a specialty construction company within the Marine and Industrial Construction sectors, with operations focused in the continental United States and Caribbean. Revenue is split roughly 50/50 between a Marine Construction segment that provides marine facility, pipeline and structural construction services and a Commercial Concrete segment that provides turnkey concrete services in the light commercial and structural construction markets.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Upcoming 3Q2020 operating results and call should be well received. ORN reports tomorrow (10/28) AMC and will host a call on Thursday (10/29) at 10am EST. Call number is 201-493-6739 and code is Orion Group Holdings.

    Work on existing projects goes on with limited disruptions from COVID-19 and weather.  We have been pleasantly surprised that work in Seattle (Terminal 5 upgrade and a bridge replacement) continued, and there was a negligible impact from weather in 3Q2020. We are looking for operating results to remain solid, albeit a sequential moderation is expected after stronger than expected 2Q2020 operating …



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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – New Announcements Push 3Q2020 Awards to $417 Million

Monday, October 05, 2020

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)

New Announcements Push 3Q2020 Awards to $417 Million

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp is a provider of dredging services in the United States. The company only’s operating segments is Dredging. Dredging involves the enhancement or preservation of navigability of waterways or the protection of shorelines through the removal or replenishment of soil, sand or rock. Its projects portfolio includes Coastal Restoration, Coastal Protection, Port expansion, and others.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    3Q2020 Awards now total $416.8 million with six new awards for $59.8 million announced at the end of last week. The scope of work is broad and the awarded work includes a total of 21 projects, including six capital awards for $195.1 million, eight maintenance awards for $111.0 million, and seven coastal protection awards for $110.7 million. While awards of $452.5 million were announced in 3Q2020, three awards for $35.8 million were related to 2Q2020 awards, so the 3Q2020 award figure excludes those awards. Also, the 3Q2020 award number is even higher since there was an unquantified award in July from Bechtel for work on a LNG project.

    October Awards. On October 2nd, six awards for $59.8 million were announced. As detailed in previous research notes, several dredging awards had been posted on government web sites in September, but not yet announced. The most recent press release captures the remaining to-be-announced awards, including three maintenance awards for $26.2 million, two coastal protection awards for…




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Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – Low Bid Awarded and Limited Work Disruptions

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

Low Bid Awarded and Limited Work Disruptions

Orion Group Holdings, based in Houston, Texas, is a specialty construction company within the Marine and Industrial Construction sectors, with operations focused in the continental United States and Caribbean. Revenue is split roughly 50/50 between a Marine Construction segment that provides marine facility, pipeline and structural construction services and a Commercial Concrete segment that provides turnkey concrete services in the light commercial and structural construction markets.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Low apparent bid on Galveston work awarded.  As expected, the low apparent bid of $15.8 million on dredging work in the Galveston Harbor and Channel discussed in a mid-August research note turned into a final award. The project involves base dredging of 3.42 million CY of material for $11.3 million, and option dredging of 1.65 million CY of material for $4.5 million.

    Investigation on tragic Corpus Christi accident under way.  No impact on work with US Army Corp of Engineers (USACE). In August, the Waymon L. Boyd dredger sank in the Port of Corpus Christi after puncturing an energy pipeline and catching fire. Four crew members perished and others were injured. We offer our condolences to families of crew members who perished and hope that the injured crew members …



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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – A Victory on Jacksonville C

Thursday, September 24, 2020

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)

A Victory on Jacksonville C!

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp is a provider of dredging services in the United States. The company only’s operating segments is Dredging. Dredging involves the enhancement or preservation of navigability of waterways or the protection of shorelines through the removal or replenishment of soil, sand or rock. Its projects portfolio includes Coastal Restoration, Coastal Protection, Port expansion, and others.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Jacksonville C award of $104.98 million posted. The US Army Corp of Engineers (USACE) posted the award, which does not include options, on the DoD and government services web sites. Bids were solicited via the internet and there was only one other bidder. The project was on a Request for Proposal (RFP) basis so we don’t know the identity of other bidder nor the bid amount. The award is positive for the intermediate term outlook since the majority of the work will be completed in 2021 and 2022 given the estimated completion date is October 15, 2022.

    Two smaller awards totaling $24.4 million also posted.  The larger award named South Atlantic Regional work in four harbors (including Brunswick, Morehead City, Savannah, and Wilmington) for $16.4 million has been highlighted as a low bid pending award in several past research notes, and the smaller award of $8.0 million involves maintenance dredging on the Morehead City Harbor …



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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – Low Bids Become Awards of $119 million. More Awards Ahead

Thursday, September 17, 2020

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)

Low Bids Become Awards of $119 million. More Awards Ahead.

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp is a provider of dredging services in the United States. The company only’s operating segments is Dredging. Dredging involves the enhancement or preservation of navigability of waterways or the protection of shorelines through the removal or replenishment of soil, sand or rock. Its projects portfolio includes Coastal Restoration, Coastal Protection, Port expansion, and others.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Low bids converted into final awards of $118.8 million. A $4.3 million award was added after market closed so low bids pending award of $33.6 million remain outstanding. Yesterday, final awards of $118.8 million were announced, including several projects that we highlighted as pending at the start of the week. The awarded work includes capital work of $75.6 million, coastal protection work of $37.0 million and maintenance work of $6.2 million. The two largest projects in Charleston and Freeport represented ~$68.4 million of our low apparent bid estimate, but several low bids on other projects were not included and are pending award. The Fernandina Harbor award of $4.3 million was finalized late yesterday so we consequently estimate that low apparent bids of $33.6 million remain outstanding.

    Combined with awards announced in mid-August that totaled ~$118 million, the new awards of $119 million and low bids pending award of $38 million should help stabilize backlog in 3Q2020.  In 3Q2020, awards of $237 million have been announced, including $119 million announced yesterday and $118 million announced in mid-August. The scope of work is broad and it includes a total of six projects …



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Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – Corpus Christi Accident Late Last Week

Monday, August 24, 2020

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

Corpus Christi Accident Late Last Week

Orion Group Holdings, based in Houston, Texas, is a specialty construction company within the Marine and Industrial Construction sectors, with operations focused in the continental United States and Caribbean. Revenue is split roughly 50/50 between a Marine Construction segment that provides marine facility, pipeline and structural construction services and a Commercial Concrete segment that provides turnkey concrete services in the light commercial and structural construction markets.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Tragic accident in Corpus Christi. On Friday morning, Orion’s dredging vessel Waymon L. Boyd caught fire, broke apart and sank in the Port of Corpus Christi. According to a US Coast Guard bulletin, two crew members were rescued by a MH-65 Dolphin helicopter on Friday, the bodies of two crew members were recovered on Saturday morning, and the search for other two crew members was suspended late Saturday. We hope that the injured crew members will fully recover, and we offer our condolences to families of the crew members who perished in the accident. ORN’s management team mobilized to Corpus Christi on Friday and has offered condolences and support for the employees and families impacted by this accident.

    Investigation under way. It appears that the cause of the accident has not been determined, and several state/federal agencies, including the Port of Corpus Christi, will investigate the cause of the accident. Several news sources have reported that a natural gas/propane pipeline operated by …



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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – New and upcoming awards support 2H2020 backlog rebound

Friday, August 21, 2020

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)

New and upcoming awards support 2H2020 backlog rebound

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp is a provider of dredging services in the United States. The company only’s operating segments is Dredging. Dredging involves the enhancement or preservation of navigability of waterways or the protection of shorelines through the removal or replenishment of soil, sand or rock. Its projects portfolio includes Coastal Restoration, Coastal Protection, Port expansion, and others.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    New awards of $118 million are positive. After the market closed, several additional large awards were announced. The awards on six projects include four Maintenance for $78.6 million and two Coastal Protection for $39.2 million. While ~$48 million of the awards were discussed on the 2Q2020 earnings call, there were several new awards, including the Mississippi River work, that support our constructive view. In addition, there are other low bids pending award outstanding, including a low bid of $15.5 million on work at Freeport (TX) Harbor that was opened on August 10th.

    News expected shortly on several large opportunities and Jacksonville C in 3Q/4Q2020. 2H2020 rebound backlog appears likely. While backlog dropped for the third consecutive quarter in 2Q2020, a rebound is expected in 2H2020 due to the announced awards and several upcoming opportunities. Two larger opportunities in Louisiana remain on the immediate horizon, and Jacksonville C is still on track for …



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DLH Holdings (DLHC) – Post 3Q Call Commentary: Company Well Positioned to Capitalize on Current Trends

Friday, August 7, 2020


DLH Holdings Corp. (DLHC)

Post 3Q Call Commentary: Company Well Positioned to Capitalize on Current Trends

DLH Holdings Corp is a provider of technology-enabled business process outsourcing and program management solutions in the United States. The company offers services to several government agencies which include the Department of veteran affairs, Department of health and human services, Department of Defense and other government agencies. It operates primarily through prime contracts and also derives its revenue from agencies of the federal government, primarily as a prime contractor but also as a subcontractor to other Federal prime contractors.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Growth Across the Business.  Although a decline in “pass through” revenue was the cause of the lighter-than-projected revenue, DLH saw growth across its business segments. VA-related revenue grew to $24.8 million in the quarter, up from $23.1 million in the year ago period. HHS-related revenue grew to $23.3 million from $14.3 million in the year ago period, driven by the inclusion of S3 for the entire quarter versus a partial quarter last year. Other revenue improved to $3.4 million from $1.3 million.

    Adjusted Earnings.  On a reported basis, DLH generated net income of $2.1 million, or $0.16 per share, in the fiscal third quarter compared to $0.8 million, or $0.06 per share, in the year ago period. Adjusting for the $1.2 million of acquisition related costs in …



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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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DLH Holdings (DLHC) – 3Q Revenues Light, But EPS On Target

Thursday, August 6, 2020


DLH Holdings Corp. (DLHC)

3Q Revenues Light, But EPS On Target

DLH Holdings Corp is a provider of technology-enabled business process outsourcing and program management solutions in the United States. The company offers services to several government agencies which include the Department of veteran affairs, Department of health and human services, Department of Defense and other government agencies. It operates primarily through prime contracts and also derives its revenue from agencies of the federal government, primarily as a prime contractor but also as a subcontractor to other Federal prime contractors.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    3Q20 Results. Revenue came in at $51.5 million, up from $36.7 million a year ago when S3 was only included for three weeks, but down sequentially and the lowest level since S3 was fully incorporated last year. We had projected $55 million and consensus was $55.7 million. EPS was $0.16, up from $0.06 y-o-y, although last year’s results were impacted by $1.2 million of acquisition costs. We were at $0.15 and consensus was $0.16. EBITDA was $5.5 million versus $2.6 million in the prior year period.

    Margin Improvement. DLH reported solid margin improvement, in spite of the lower than projected revenue. Operating margin improved to 7.4% from 4.4% y-o-y. EBITDA margin rose to 10.7% from 6.7% while net margin improved to 4.1% in the fiscal third quarter up from …



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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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