Category: Financial Services

Bit Digital, Inc. (BTBT) – Into the Digital Mines

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, June 15, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Initiating Coverage. We are initiating research coverage on Bit Digital, Inc. with an Outperform rating and a $4.50 price target. Bit Digital is an asset-light, sustainability-focused digital asset mining company with mining and staking operations in the US, Canada, and Iceland. We believe the Company provides an opportunity for investors to invest in cryptocurrency mining and staking operations through two blue chip tokens in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

Asset-Light Mining. Bit Digital’s primary revenue source is through BTC mining. The Company manages to keep an asset-light model through multi-year contracts with facilities to host the Company’s miners, enabling Bit Digital to exclusively focus on mining. The Company is currently at a hash rate of 1.2 EH/s with a goal of 2.6 EH/s by the end of 2023. We believe Bit Digital is capable of reaching its goal through increased utilization of the existing fleet as well as various miner purchases.


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An Investor List of the Industries that Can be Improved With Blockchain Technology

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Blockchain Beyond Cryptocurrency: The Potential of Distributed Ledger Technology

Does blockchain have a future beyond crypto? Since its beginning as the underlying technology for Bitcoin (BTC) and later other cryptocurrencies, blockchain has been the necessary, behind-the-scenes, engine that allow these fintech currencies to function. Dogecoin (DOGE), Ethereum (ETH), and even the 18 G20 countries developing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) need blockchain to exist.  

But what non-finance industries are being impacted or will be disrupted by blockchain? It is not with exaggeration to say blockchain has the power to revolutionize various industries and redefine everyday transactions, manage data, and establish trust. Long-term investing requires knowledge of current trends and where the future may take them. Below we explore many of the possibilities of blockchain aside from cryptocurrency and delve into its promising future.

What is Blockchain?

At its core, blockchain is a decentralized (no single control) and immutable (unable to be changed) ledger that records activity across multiple computers. This distributed character replaces the need for institutional intermediaries to ensure transparency, security, and efficiency. A person or an entity can function, even across borders directly, without the need for a middleman. Verification of activity is recorded and remains a part of a blockchain ledger.

Uses beyond cryptocurrency, or the speculative investment that crypto and non-fungible tokens (NFT) have become, include health care, finance, voting, real estate titles, and smart communities.

Health Care

The HIPAA Privacy Rule sets national standards to protect individuals’ medical records and other identifiable health information. It applies to health plans, healthcare clearinghouses, and healthcare providers that conduct certain medical transactions electronically. The purpose is to keep data ownership from improperly being passed and to maintain privacy in the industry. Current centralized systems are not able to meet the many needs of patients, health service providers, insurance companies, and governmental agencies. Blockchain technology enables a decentralized system for access control of medical records where all stakeholders’ interests are protected.

Blockchain systems not only allow healthcare service providers to securely share patients’ medical records but patients may also track who has accessed their records and determine who is authorized to do so. If blockchain-driven, all transactions can become transparent to the patient.

And blockchain-powered interoperability can enable the seamless sharing of medical data between healthcare organizations, improving patient care, research, and drug development.

Supply Chain Management

Complex global supply chains involve numerous stakeholders, some sending, others receiving, and others verifying the source of food or products. Verifying the authenticity and improving traceability of products can be a challenging task. Blockchain’s ability to create an immutable record of every transaction and movement along the supply chain enables transparency and accountability. A company will be able to securely track the origin, manufacturing process, and movement of goods. Consumers can be equipped with verified information, among other benefits, this will increase trust and reduce the risk of receiving counterfeit products.

Storing information regarding movement on a blockchain improves integrity, accountability and traceability. For example, IBM’s Food Trust uses a blockchain system to track food items from the field to retailers. The participants in the food supply chain record transactions in the shared blockchain, which simplifies keeping track.

Entertainment Products

As technology has allowed greater reproduction and distribution, including music and art, blockchain may provide creators with more control over their work. The whole entertainment industry may undergo a significant transformation with blockchain technology. Artists can tokenize their efforts, creating a digital certificate of ownership that can be bought, sold, and shared on blockchain platforms. This will enable artists to have tight control over their intellectual property, receive fair compensation, and even establish a direct connection with their followers. Beyond ownership infringement, blockchain can facilitate transparent royalty distribution, this could ensure that artists receive their rightful earnings without an intermediary and the cost that comes with anyone getting in the middle of a transaction.

The Energy Sector

Blockchain is likely to play a transformative role in all forms of energy. As renewable energy sources continue their trend, blockchain can enable peer-to-peer energy trading. Individuals and organizations will be able to directly exchange surplus energy with those expecting an energy deficit. This could create a decentralized energy market.

Smart contracts executed on the blockchain can automatically verify and settle transactions, ensuring transparency. This democratization of energy, if broadly implemented, could accelerate the adoption of sustainable practices, provide energy where needed, and reduce waste.

Governments

While the government is often the intermediary that the blockchain makes less needed or unneeded, recognizing the potential of blockchain to enhance transparency and efficiency in public services may become its greatest use. Land registries, taxation, voting systems, and identity certainty can all be improved through blockchain’s tracking and tamper-resistant design. Immutable records of land ownership can reduce disputes and increase trust in property transactions. Digital identities stored on a blockchain can streamline processes such as passport verification and border control, making them more secure and efficient. Blockchain-based voting systems have the potential to eliminate voter fraud, ensuring fair and transparent elections.

Potential

Much of what is described above has either barely been implemented or has not been put to use. This is a period in any technological advancement when most long-term investors would like to be involved. Efficiencies and improved products are poised to help the industries mentioned, and pure blockchain companies, large and small, can benefit from developing uses for their technology.

Despite its potential, blockchain technology still faces challenges. Scalability, energy consumption, and regulatory frameworks require further development and refinement. However, ongoing research and collaborations among businesses, academia, industry, and policymakers are actively finding avenues around these concerns, driving the maturation of blockchain technology.

Take Away

Blockchain is still in its infancy, and industries are just becoming aware of its power to help them. As the paradigm shifts, it could become a technology businesses could not imagine doing without. Blockchain’s decentralized, transparent, and secure nature makes it a powerful tool for revolutionizing healthcare, supply chain management, entertainment, governing, and energy sectors. As the technology evolves, we can expect innovative use and widespread adoption of blockchain that serves to elevate trust, efficiency, and transparency. And maybe the now-developed cryptocurrencies will survive within these changes.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.investopedia.com/tech/forget-bitcoin-blockchain-future/

https://www.hhs.gov/hipaa/for-professionals/privacy/index.html

https://www.ibm.com/products/supply-chain-intelligence-suite/food-trust

https://www.investopedia.com/10-biggest-blockchain-companies-5213784

What Are Hedge Funds, and Why Are They Popular Among Investors?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

How Well Do You Know Hedge Funds?

There are many investment vehicles beyond just stock market investing. We hear the names of some of these enough to think we know exactly what they are, but we often realize when asked that we have a hard time defining them. I experienced this recently with a financial adviser I know that was asked what a hedge fund is. She knew that it was a pooled fund (more than one investor) and that it may involve complex strategies that require people to be an accredited investors in most cases, but the Series-7 licensed advisor doesn’t spend much time with alternative investments, so her answer was left incomplete.

There are many hedge fund types all with different strategies; in fact it is a wide-open field. Michael Burry proved this as he created his own way to sell short the subprime mortgage market for his hedge fund before the mortgage meltdown in 2008. So there is no shame in not knowing what a hedge fund is, the strategies are limitless. I referred to the SEC website and spoke with several hedge fund managers I interact with regularly to ensure there were no important gaps missing while writing a hedge fund refresher.

What is a Hedge Fund?

Hedge funds are investment vehicles that pool money from investors with the goal of generating positive returns. They differ from mutual funds in that they typically employ more flexible investment strategies. Many hedge funds aim to profit in various market conditions by engaging in practices such as leverage (borrowing to increase investment exposure), short-selling, and other speculative investment techniques that are less commonly used by mutual funds.

There are a number of different types of hedge funds, each with its own unique strategy. Some of the most common include:

•         Long-Short Equity Funds: These are funds that invest in both long and short positions, meaning they buy stocks they believe will go up in value and sell stocks they believe will go down in value. The balance of the long and short, in theory, moderates risk in the management of many long-short equity funds.

•         Market Neutral Funds: These are funds that look to generate returns for investors that are not correlated to the overall market. They do this by investing in a variety of assets, including stocks, bonds, and derivatives. A market-neutral fund that adapts to any market condition by selecting positions for what is expected in the various markets allows the manager much more leeway than most mutual funds available.

•         Volatility Arbitrage Funds: These funds take advantage of volatility arbitrage which is a trading strategy that attempts to profit from the difference between the forecasted future price volatility of an asset, like a stock, and the implied volatility of options based on that asset. Success at calling the disconnect between the two that yields a profit (arbitrage) is the goal of these fund managers.

•         Merger Arbitrage Funds: These funds trade to benefit from the common price movement experienced when a company announces a merger or acquisition of another public company. Usually, the acquiring company’s price will weaken while the company to be acquired rises. Benefiting from both sides while offsetting overall market risk being both long and short in equities, is how these funds aim to outperform the overall market.

•         Global Macro Funds: are what many investors think of when it comes to hedge funds. The manager can take a view on economic or political events and use derivatives on equities, bonds, currencies and commodities to try to profit from that view. Global macro hedge fund managers may be taking positions on the likely direction of interest rates, the outcome of a significant event, such as a vote to raise the U.S. debt ceiling or anything where they consider the market as not pricing an outcome correctly.

Depending on the size of the assets managed by a hedge fund manager, they may not be required to register or file public reports with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission). However, hedge funds are still subject to anti-fraud regulations, and fund managers have a fiduciary duty to the funds they manage.

Who Can Invest?

Hedge funds are generally only accessible to accredited investors, meaning investors who have a net worth of at least $1 million or an annual income of at least $200,000. (there are other criteria that may allow access). This is because hedge funds are considered by the SEC to be high-risk investments.

If you are considering investing in a hedge fund, it is important to do your research and understand the risks involved. You should also make sure that you are comfortable with the investment strategy of the fund.

Downsides Commonly Associated With Hedge Funds

While every fund is unique, there is much overlap in the different types when it comes to the downside associated with many of the varieties. Remember the goal for most of these funds is to make above-market returns – greater returns usually come with a cost.  

•         High Fees: Hedge funds typically charge high fees, which can eat into your returns.

•         High Risk: Hedge funds are considered to be high-risk investments. They can lose money, even in rising markets.

•         Lack of Liquidity: Hedge funds are typically illiquid, meaning it can be difficult to sell your shares if you need to.

If you are considering investing in a hedge fund, it is important to weigh the risks and rewards carefully. Hedge funds can be a good investment for investors who are looking for high returns and diversification. However, they are also high-risk investments and should only be considered by investors who can’t afford to lose their investment.

Evaluating Various Funds

If you’re considering investing in a hedge fund, there are several key areas of information you should seek:

Read the fund’s offering memorandum and related materials: These documents provide essential information about the fund’s investment strategies, its location (U.S. or abroad), risks associated with the investment, fees charged by the manager, expenses borne by the fund, and potential conflicts of interest. It is crucial to thoroughly review these materials before making an investment decision and consider consulting an independent financial advisor.

Understand the fund’s investment strategy. Hedge funds employ a wide range of investment strategies. Some may diversify across multiple strategies, managers, and investments, while others may focus on concentrated positions or a single strategy. It’s important to grasp the level of risk involved in the fund’s strategies and ensure they align with your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. Remember that higher potential returns usually come with higher risks.

Determine if the fund uses leverage or speculative investment techniques: Leverage involves borrowing money to amplify investment potential, but it also increases the risk of losses. Hedge funds may also use derivatives (such as options and futures) and engage in short-selling, which further impact potential gains or losses. Understanding these practices is crucial in evaluating the fund’s risk profile.

Evaluate potential conflicts of interest disclosed by hedge fund managers: It’s important to assess any conflicts of interest that may arise. For instance, if your investment advisor recommends a fund they manage, there may be a conflict since the advisor may earn higher fees from your investment in the hedge fund compared to other potential investments.

Understand how the fund’s assets are valued. Hedge funds may invest in illiquid securities that can be challenging to value. Some funds exercise significant discretion in valuing such securities. It’s essential to understand the fund’s valuation process and the extent to which independent sources validate the valuation. Valuation practices can affect the fees charged by the manager.

Understand that hedge funds do not follow a standardized methodology for calculating performance, and their investments may involve relatively illiquid and hard-to-value securities. In contrast, mutual funds have specific guidelines for calculating and disclosing performance data. When presented with performance data for a hedge fund, inquire about its accuracy, including whether it reflects cash or actual assets received by the fund, and whether it accounts for deductions for fees.

There are ordinarily limitations on taking money out of the fund. Unlike mutual funds, hedge funds typically impose restrictions on redeeming (cashing in) shares. These are usually monthly, quarterly, or annual redemption windows. They may also impose lock-up periods, during which you cannot redeem your shares for a year or more. These limitations mean that the value of your shares can decrease during the redemption process, and redemption fees may apply.

Why Hedge Funds are Popular

The lure of possibly finding a hedge fund manager with a crystal ball is a nice fantasy, but dreaming aside, hedge funds are popular among investors for a number of other reasons.

First, hedge funds have the potential to generate higher returns than traditional investments, such as mutual funds. Second, hedge funds offer investors the opportunity to diversify their portfolios and reduce risk. Third, hedge funds, although not as liquid as SEC-registered mutual funds, are typically more liquid than other alternative investments, such as private equity.

Take Away

Hedge funds offer accredited investors a unique opportunity to potentially earn returns through diverse investment strategies not found in traditional mutual funds. With their focus on generating profits regardless of market direction, hedge funds have become popular due to the potential for higher returns, diversification benefits, customization, and access to unique investment opportunities. However, it is important for investors to thoroughly understand the risks involved, carefully evaluate fund managers, and consider their own investment objectives before considering hedge fund participation.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Source

SEC Investor Bulletin

The Fed – Hedge Funds

Solid Evidence a Recession is Unlikely this Year

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Reliable Data, Not Emotions, are Pointing to a Growing U.S. Economy

In roughly one month, we will be halfway through 2023. While many point to the Fed’s pace of tightening and the downward sloping yield curve, as a reason to run around like Chicken Little warning of a coming recession, a fresh read of the economic tea leaves tells a different story. Just today, May 23, the PMI Output Index (PMI) rose to its highest reading in over a year. Home sales figures were also reported to show that new homes in May sold at the highest rate in over a year. These are both reliable leading indicators that point to growth in both services and manufacturing.

U.S. Composite PMI Output Index

Business activity in the U.S. increased to a 13-month high in May due in large part to strong growth in the services sector. This is a reliable indication that economic expansion has growing momentum. Despite the negative talk of those that are concerned that the Fed has lifted interest rates closer to historical norms and that the yield curve is still inverted, in part due to Covid era Fed yield-curve-control, the numbers suggest less caution might be warranted.

S&P Global said on Tuesday (May 23) its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, rose to a reading of 54.5 this month. It indicates the highest level since April 2022 and is up from a reading of 53.4 in April. A reading above 50 indicates growth, this is the fourth consecutive month it has been above 50. The consensus among economists was only 52.6.

Home Sales

One sector that is directly impacted by interest rates is real estate. However, new home sales rose in April, this is a clear sign that prospective buyers are making deals with builders.

New homes in April were sold at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 683,000, Its the highest rate since March 2022. The April data represents a 4.1% gain from March’s revised rate of 656,000,. The report was from the Census and Department of Housing and Urban Development and was reported Tuesday May 23. Economists had expected new home sales to decline to 670,000 from a March rate of 683,000. It was the largest month-over-month increase since December 2022.

Leading Indicators

PMI is forward-looking as it surveys purchasing managers’ expectations and intentions for the coming months. By capturing their sentiment on future orders, production plans, and hiring intentions, PMI offers insights into economic trends that have yet to be reflected in other after-the-fact indicators.

Home sales are considered a leading indicator because they can serve as a measure of other needs and broader economic trends. Home sales have a significant impact on related sectors, such as construction, home improvement, finance, and consumer spending. Changes in home sales can influence economic activity and indicate shifts in consumer confidence, employment levels, and overall economic health.

While many economic reports offer rear-view mirror data, these reports are true indicators of business behavior as it plans for future expectations, and consumer behavior as it is confident that it will have the resources available to purchase and outfit a new home.

The upbeat reports prompted the Atlanta Federal Reserve to raise its second-quarter gross domestic product estimate to a 2.9% annualized rate from a 2.6% pace. The economy grew at a 1.1% rate in the first quarter.

Take Away

Many economists are negative about the economic outlook later this year. Market participants have been positioning themselves with the notion that there may be a late year recession. Is the notion misguided? Recent data suggests there may be buying opportunities for those willing to go against the tide of pundits preaching recession.

No one has a crystal ball. In good markets and bad, there is no replacement for good research before you put on a position, and then for as long as the position remains in your portfolio.

Channelchek is a great resource for information to follow the companies not likely being reported in traditional outlets. Turn to this online free resource as you evaluate small and microcap stocks.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

World Economic Outlook

Barron’s (May 23, 2023)

Reuters (May 23, 2023)

Is Your Bank Prepared for a US Debt Default?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

War Rooms and Bailouts: How Banks and the Fed are Preparing for a US Default – and the Chaos Expected to Follow

When you are the CEO responsible for a bank and all the related depositors and investors, you don’t take an “it’ll never happen” approach to the possibility of a U.S. debt default. The odds are it won’t happen, but if it does, being unprepared would be devastating. Banks of all sizes are getting their doomsday plans in place, and other industries are as well, but big banks, on many fronts would be most directly impacted. The following is an informative article on how banks are preparing. It’s authored by John W. Diamond the Director of the Center for Public Finance at the Baker Institute, Rice University, and republished with permission from The Conversation.  – Paul Hoffman, Managing Editor, Channelchek

Convening war rooms, planning speedy bailouts and raising house-on-fire alarm bells: Those are a few of the ways the biggest banks and financial regulators are preparing for a potential default on U.S. debt.

“You hope it doesn’t happen, but hope is not a strategy – so you prepare for it,” Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America, the nation’s second-biggest lender, said in a television interview.

The doomsday planning is a reaction to a lack of progress in talks between President Joe Biden and House Republicans over raising the US$31.4 trillion debt ceiling – another round of negotiations took place on May 16, 2023. Without an increase in the debt limit, the U.S. can’t borrow more money to cover its bills – all of which have already been agreed to by Congress – and in practical terms that means a default.

What happens if a default occurs is an open question, but economists – including me – generally expect financial chaos as access to credit dries up and borrowing costs rise quickly for companies and consumers. A severe and prolonged global economic recession would be all but guaranteed, and the reputation of the U.S. and the dollar as beacons of stability and safety would be further tarnished.

But how do you prepare for an event that many expect would trigger the worst global recession since the 1930s?

Preparing for Panic

Jamie Dimon, who runs JPMorgan Chase, the biggest U.S. bank, told Bloomberg he’s been convening a weekly war room to discuss a potential default and how the bank should respond. The meetings are likely to become more frequent as June 1 – the date on which the U.S. might run out of cash – nears.

Dimon described the wide range of economic and financial effects that the group must consider such as the impact on “contracts, collateral, clearing houses, clients” – basically every corner of the financial system – at home and abroad.

“I don’t think it’s going to happen — because it gets catastrophic, and the closer you get to it, you will have panic,” he said.

That’s when rational decision-making gives way to fear and irrationality. Markets overtaken by these emotions are chaotic and leave lasting economic scars.

Banks haven’t revealed many of the details of how they are responding, but we can glean some clues from how they’ve reacted to past crises, such as the financial crisis in 2008 or the debt ceiling showdowns of 2011 and 2013.

One important way banks can prepare is by reducing exposure to Treasury securities – some or all of which could be considered to be in default once the U.S. exhausts its ability to pay all of its bill. All U.S. debts are referred to as Treasury bills or bonds.

The value of Treasurys is likely to plunge in the case of a default, which could weaken bank balance sheets even more. The recent bank crisis, in fact, was prompted primarily by a drop in the market value of Treasurys due to the sharp rise in interest rates over the past year. And a default would only make that problem worse, with close to 190 banks at risk of failure as of March 2023.

Another strategy banks can use to hedge their exposure to a sell-off in Treasurys is to buy credit default swaps, financial instruments that allow an investor to offset credit risk. Data suggests this is already happening, as the cost to protect U.S. government debt from default is higher than that of Brazil, Greece and Mexico, all of which have defaulted multiple times and have much lower credit ratings.

But buying credit default swaps at ever-higher prices limits a third key preventive measure for banks: keeping their cash balances as high as possible so they’re able and ready to deal with whatever happens in a default.

Keeping the Financial Plumbing Working

Financial industry groups and financial regulators have also gamed out a potential default with an eye toward keeping the financial system running as best they can.

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, for example, has been updating its playbook to dictate how players in the Treasurys market will communicate in case of a default.

And the Federal Reserve, which is broadly responsible for ensuring financial stability, has been pondering a U.S. default for over a decade. One such instance came in 2013, when Republicans demanded the elimination of the Affordable Care Act in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Ultimately, Republicans capitulated and raised the limit one day before the U.S. was expected to run out of cash.

One of the biggest concerns Fed officials had at the time, according to a meeting transcript recently made public, is that the U.S. Treasury would no longer be able to access financial markets to “roll over” maturing debt. While hitting the current ceiling prevents the U.S. from issuing new debt that exceeds $31.4 trillion, the government still has to roll existing debt into new debt as it comes due. On May 15, 2023, for example, the government issued just under $100 billion in notes and bonds to replace maturing debt and raise cash.

The risk is that there would be too few buyers at one of the government’s daily debt auctions – at which investors from around the world bid to buy Treasury bills and bonds. If that happens, the government would have to use its cash on hand to pay back investors who hold maturing debt.

That would further reduce the amount of cash available for Social Security payments, federal employees wages and countless other items the government spent over $6 trillion on in 2022. This would be nothing short of apocalyptic if the Fed could not save the day.

To mitigate that risk, the Fed said it could immediately step in as a buyer of last resort for Treasurys, quickly lower its lending rates and provide whatever funding is needed in an attempt to prevent financial contagion and collapse. The Fed is likely having the same conversations and preparing similar actions today.

A Self-Imposed Catastrophe

Ultimately, I hope that Congress does what it has done in every previous debt ceiling scare: raise the limit.

These contentious debates over lifting it have become too commonplace, even as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle express concerns about the growing federal debt and the need to rein in government spending. Even when these debates result in some bipartisan effort to rein in spending, as they did in 2011, history shows they fail, as energy analyst Autumn Engebretson and I recently explained in a review of that episode.

That’s why one of the most important ways banks are preparing for such an outcome is by speaking out about the serious damage not raising the ceiling is likely to inflict on not only their companies but everyone else, too. This increases the pressure on political leaders to reach a deal.

Going back to my original question, how do you prepare for such a self-imposed catastrophe? The answer is, no one should have to.

In the Event of an Official U.S. Bankruptcy…

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Is a U.S. Default or Bankruptcy Possible – How Would that Work?

It seems no one is talking about what would happen if the U.S. defaulted on maturing debt, yet it is within the realm of possibilities. Also not impossible is the idea of the powerful country joining the list of sovereign nations that once declared bankruptcy and survived. A retired government employee with a passion for economic history wrote a timely piece on this subject. It was originally published on the Mises Institute website on  May 12, 2023. Channelchek has shared it here with permission.

The current known federal debt is $31.7 trillion, according to the website, U.S. Debt Clock, this is about $94,726 for every man, woman, and child who are citizens as of April 24, 2023. Can you write a check right now made payable to the United States Treasury for the known share of the federal debt of each member of your family after liquidating the assets you own?

A report released by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Branch on March 6, 2023, stated a similar figure for the total known federal debt of about $31.4 trillion as of December 31, 2022. The federal debt size is so great, it can never be repaid in its current form.

Some of us have been in or known families or businesses who had financial debt that could not be paid when adjustments like reducing expenses, increasing income, renegotiating loan repayments to lender(s), and selling assets to raise money for loan repayment were not enough. The reality is that they still could not pay the debt owed to the lender(s).

This leads to filing bankruptcy under federal bankruptcy laws overseen by a federal bankruptcy court.

Chapter 7 bankruptcy is a liquidation proceeding available to consumers and businesses. It allows for assets of a debtor that are not exempt from creditors to be collected and liquidated (turned to cash), and the proceeds distributed to creditors. A consumer debtor receives a complete discharge from debt under Chapter 7, except for certain debts that are prohibited from discharge by the Bankruptcy Code.

Chapter 11 bankruptcy provides a procedure by which an individual or a business can reorganize its debts while continuing to operate. The vast majority of Chapter 11 cases are filed by businesses. The debtor, often with participation from creditors, creates a plan of reorganization under which to repay part or all its debts.

These government entities have filed for Chapter 9 federal bankruptcy:

Orange County, California, in 1994 for about $1.7 billion

Jefferson County, Alabama, in 2011 for about $5 billion

The City of Detroit, Michigan, in 2013 for about $18 billion

The Commonwealth of Puerto Rico in 2017 for $72 billion

According to the United States Courts website:

The purpose of Chapter 9 is to provide a financially-distressed municipality protection from its creditors while it develops and negotiates a plan for adjusting its debts. Reorganization of the debts of a municipality is typically accomplished either by extending debt maturities, reducing the amount of principal or interest, or refinancing the debt by obtaining a new loan.

Although similar to other Chapters in some respects, Chapter 9 is significantly different in that there is no provision in the law for liquidation of the assets of the municipality and distribution of the proceeds to creditors.

The bankruptcies of two counties, a major city, and a sovereign territory resulted in bondholders with financial losses not repaid in full as well as reforms enacted in each governmental entity. Each one emerged from bankruptcy, one hopes, humbled and better able to manage their finances.

The federal government’s best solution for bondholders, taxpayers, and other interested parties is to default, declare sovereign bankruptcy, and make the required changes to get the fiscal business in order. Default, as defined by Dictionary.com as a verb, is “to fail to meet financial obligations or to account properly for money in one’s care.”

Sovereign government defaults are not new in our lifetime with Argentina in 1989, 2001, 2014, and 2020; South Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand in 1997, known as the Asian flu; Greece in 2009; and Russia in 1998.

Possible Outcomes

Some outcomes from these defaults lead to sovereign government debt bond ratings being reduced by the private rating agencies, bondholders losing value on their holdings, debt repayments being renegotiated with lenders, many countries receiving loans with a repayment plan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), reforms being required to nations’ entitlement programs, a number of government taxes being raised, their currency losing value on currency trading exchanges, price inflation becoming more of a reality to its citizens, and higher interest rates being offered on future government debt bond offerings.

Very few in the financial world are talking about any outcomes of a U.S. federal government debt default. One outcome from the 2011 near default was Standard & Poor’s lowering their AAA federal bond rating to AA+ where it has remained.

What organization would oversee the execution of a U.S. federal government debt default, and what authorization would they be given to deal with the situation? No suggestions are offered when its scale is numerically mind-numbing since the U.S. has used debt as its drug of choice to overdose on fiscal reality.

Some outcomes would include a lowered federal bond rating by the three private bond rating agencies, where the reality of higher interest rates being offered on newly issued federal debt cannot be ignored. Federal government spending cuts in some form will be required by the realities of economic law, which includes reducing the number of federal employees, abolishing federal agencies, reducing and reforming military budgets, selling federal government property, delegating federal programs to the states, and reforming the federal entitlement programs of Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security. Federal government tax revenue to repay the known debt with interest will rise as a percentage of each year’s future federal budget.

One real impact from a federal government debt default would be that the U.S. dollar would no longer be the global reserve currency, with dollars in many national reserve banks coming back to the U.S. Holding dollars will be like holding a hot potato. Nations holding federal debt paper—like China ($859 billion), Great Britain ($668 billion), Japan ($1.11 trillion), and others as of the January 2023 numbers published by the U.S. Treasury—as well as many mutual funds and others will see their holdings reduced in value leading to a selling off of a magnitude one cannot imagine in scale and timing. Many mutual fund holders like retirees, city and state retirement systems, and 401(k) account holders will be impacted by this unfolding event.

The direction of an individual or business when they emerge from federal bankruptcy is hopefully humility—looking back with the perspective of mistakes made, learning from these mistakes, and moving forward with a focus to benefit their family and community.

However, cities, counties, and sovereign territories differ from individuals, families, and private businesses in emerging from federal bankruptcy. What the outcome of a federal government debt default will be is unknown. Yet its reality is before us.

About the Author:

Stephen Anderson is retired from state government service and is a graduate of The University of Texas at Austin. He currently lives in Texas. His passions are reading, writing, and helping friends and family understand economic history.

Tokens.com Corp. (SMURF) – A First Look into the Second Quarter

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 12, 2023

Tokens.com Corp is a publicly traded company that invests in Web3 assets and businesses focused on the Metaverse, NFTs, DeFi, and gaming based digital assets. Tokens.com is the majority owner of Metaverse Group, one of the world’s first virtual real estate companies. Hulk Labs, a wholly-owned Tokens.com subsidiary, focuses on investing in play-to-earn revenue generating gaming tokens and NFTs. Additionally, Tokens.com owns and stakes crypto assets to earn additional tokens. Through its growing digital assets and NFTs, Tokens.com provides public market investors with a simple and secure way to gain exposure to Web3.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Results. Tokens.com reported revenue of $303,217 compared to $326,320 in the prior year. Driven by a $2.6 million digital asset revaluation gain, operating income was $1.9 million compared to a loss of $3.2 million last year. Net income for the quarter was $1.7 million, or diluted EPS of $0.02, compared to $7.8 million, or $0.07. We estimated revenue of $115,000, operating loss of $482,000, and breakeven EPS.

Macro Environment. Tokens.com noted that the ETH Shapella upgrade showed an increase in staking activity, which results in lower yields but is countered with the increase in crypto prices over the last few months. We expect that staking revenue will remain volatile for Tokens.com’s ETH and DOT but will have increases quarter-over-quarter, assuming prices stay level or increase.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

What You Should Know About the Canton Network Blockchain Announcement

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

The “Who’s Who” of Tech and Finance Join Forces in Blockchain Collaboration

A new partnership between financial giants, tech behemoths, media monsters, and leaders in digitization just announced plans to launch what they call Canton. What is Canton? In a press release dated May 9, The Canton Network says it is “the industry’s first privacy-enabled interoperable blockchain network designed for institutional assets and built to responsibly unlock the potential of synchronized financial markets.” What does that mean? We’ll take it one piece at a time below.

The announcement describes the Canton Network as building toward being an interoperable blockchain with privacy features designed for the institutional asset management industry. It aims to allow “previously siloed” financial assets to be able to synchronize, making it possible to interconnect diverse financial markets.

The list of partners is a “Who’s Who” list of companies that are considered among the best in their individual specialties.

Canton Participants include, in alphabetical order:

3Homes, ASX, BNP Paribas, Broadridge, Capgemini, Cboe Global Markets, Cumberland, Deloitte, Deutsche Börse Group, Digital Asset, The Digital Dollar Project, DRW, Eleox, EquiLend, FinClear, Gambyl, Goldman Sachs, IntellectEU, Liberty City Ventures, Microsoft, Moody’s, Paxos, Right Pedal LendOS, S&P Global, SBI Digital Asset Holdings, Umbrage, Versana, VERT Capital, Xpansiv, and Zinnia.

The announcement proclaims that The Canton Network will provide “a decentralized infrastructure that connects independent applications built with Daml, Digital Asset’s smart-contract language.” The result will be “a ‘network of networks’, allowing previously siloed systems in financial markets to interoperate with the appropriate governance, privacy, permissioning and controls required for highly regulated industries.”

 The Canton Network intends to enable financial institutions to experience a safer and reconciliation-free environment where assets, data, and cash can synchronize freely across applications. The end product will be opportunities for financial institutions to offer new innovative products to their clients while enhancing their efficiency and risk management.

An example provided by Canton is asset registers and cash payment systems which are distinct and siloed systems in today’s markets. With the new Canton Network, a digital bond and a digital payment can be composed across two separate applications into a single transaction, guaranteeing simultaneous exchange without operational risk. Similarly, a digital asset could be used in a collateralized financial transaction via connection to a repo or leveraged loan application.

Bloomberg calls the new venture “a collaborative effort that could be crucial to ledger technology in the finance market.” In addition, the group is striving to integrate “disparate institution applications,” which could have a positive impact on the entire industry.

The press release expalained that until Canton, smart contract blockchain networks have not achieved meaningful adoption among financial institutions and other enterprises because of three significant shortfalls:

  • The lack of privacy and control over data: other chains have shortcomings around privacy that prevent the use of the technology by multiple regulated participants on the same network. There are currently no other blockchains that can offer data protection or control at any layer of its network.
  • Other blockchains have had to accept trade-offs between control and interoperability: other chains require operators to forfeit their full control of applications by using a shared pool of validators to gain interoperability.
  • The inability to scale: with applications competing for global network resources and the inherent capacity limitations caused by how public blockchains operate, achieving the scale and performance financial institutions need remains challenging.

The Canton Network expects to remove these obstacles by balancing the decentralization of a network with the privacy and controls needed to operate within a sound regulatory environment.

The network expects to raise the bar on safety and soundness in blockchain financial interactions by enabling network users to safeguard permissions, exposure, and interactions across Canton, to comply with security, regulatory and legal requirements.

The network can connect innovative blockchain solutions in market today, such as Deutsche Börse Group’s D7 post-trade platform and Goldman Sachs’ GS DAP™, while retaining privacy and permissioning. As more Daml-built applications go into production this year and beyond, the number of connections on the Canton Network are expected to grow exponentially. For example, one application’s monthly notional traded exceeds the most active crypto token volumes.

Canton Network participants will begin testing interoperability capabilities across a range of applications and use cases in July.

The network will bring together blockchain applications built with Daml, the smart-contract language devised by Digital Asset. The team-up is the result of years of blockchain research and development by the tech and finance industry’s giants that are involved.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230509005497/en/New-Global-Blockchain-Network-of-Networks-for-Financial-Market-Participants-and-Institutional-Assets

https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2023-05-09/new-global-blockchain-network-of-networks-for-financial-market-participants-and-institutional-assets

Fairness Opinions, Understanding a Transaction’s Full Value

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Jernej Furman (Flickr)

Why Companies Get a Fairness Opinion Before Entering a Financial Transaction

How important is a fairness opinion (FO) when a company is evaluating a merger, acquisition, spin-off, buyback, carve-out, or other corporate change of ownership? Part of the due diligence of a large financial transaction is to engage for a fee, an experienced expert to create a fairness opinion that, among other things, advises on the valuation of the proposed transaction. And possibly recommends adjusting some terms to align the transaction with what the expert sees as fair. 

Understanding Fairness Opinions

When companies are considering impactful transactions, they may be required to get an objective opinion on whether the terms of the deal are fair. If it isn’t required, it is still a good idea to help reduce risks inherent in large transactions.

A fairness opinion is a professional assessment of the fairness of a proposed transaction. An independent third-party advisor, such as an investment bank, usually provides it. The goal of a fairness opinion is to provide an impartial evaluation of whether the transaction is fair to all parties involved based on various financial and strategic factors. The analysis involves evaluations of the impact of synergies, overall asset value, current market worth, dilutive effects, structure, and other attributes that a non-experienced executive may easily overlook.

Who Provides Fairness Opinions

Investment banks are the most common providers of fairness opinions. Choosing an institution that has extensive industry-specific experience and knowledge in valuing a transaction or strategic opportunity could save the client many times the cost of the service.

For example, Noble Capital Markets, an investment banking firm with 39 years of experience serving clients in a variety of industries, provides as one of its opinion services, FOs to companies considering a transaction. Francisco Penafiel, Managing Director and part of Noble’s investment banking & valuation practice, explained why getting an opinion from a reputable investment bank can avoid expensive problems.  Mr. Penafiel said, “FO’s should be provided by independent third parties, but it’s highly recommended for companies to have the assistance of advisors with a sound reputation, credibility, and significant industry experience.”

Why should the advisor have an intimate understanding of the industry? Penafiel explained, “it’s also important for the advisors to have knowledge of the regulatory compliance factors that affect the process as well as to be fully independent to avoid any conflict of interests.” He believes most often, investment banking firms, with platforms that include many years of experience, are best suited to run analysis that is deep and thorough, and are necessary when rendering these opinions

“Noble has helped clients over the years with their valuations needs, we’re now witnessing an increased demand for FOs because of the benefits they bring to the companies involved in a transaction. It also goes a long way to demonstrate that management and boards fulfilled their fiduciary duties, reducing risks of litigation,” said Penafiel.

The SEC has shown that they approve of and, in some cases, could require an FO. Recent regulations applying to de-SPAC transactions make fairness opinions the standard as de-SPAC transactions have an inherent conflict of interest between a SPAC’s sponsor and the stockholders. The third-party FO provider allows for impartiality and transparency to benefit all parties, especially investors.

Steps in Creating an FO

To provide a fairness opinion, an investment bank will typically conduct a thorough analysis of the deal’s financial and strategic aspects. This analysis may involve evaluating the company’s financial statements, projecting future earnings, analyzing the transaction structure, and reviewing comparable transactions in the industry. The investment bank will also consider the prevailing market conditions, economic climate and the impact on interest rates and the effects of any regulatory or legal issues on the transaction.

After completing its analysis, the investment bank will issue a formal report summarizing its findings and conclusions. The report will typically contain a detailed explanation of the fairness opinion, including the methodology used, the assumptions made, and the supporting evidence. It will also provide a valuation of the company, which may be used as a reference point for negotiating the deal’s terms.

It’s worth noting that a fairness opinion is not a guarantee that the proposed transaction is fair. Rather, it’s a professional opinion based on the information available at the time of the analysis. The ultimate decision about whether to proceed with the transaction lies with the parties involved, who must consider various factors beyond the scope of the fairness opinion.

Take Away

 Obtaining a fairness opinion is a critical step for companies considering major transactions. It provides an objective evaluation of the transaction’s fairness, which can help the parties involved make informed decisions. Investment banks are well-positioned to provide fairness opinions, given their extensive experience and expertise in financial analysis and valuation. By engaging an investment bank to provide a fairness opinion, companies can gain a valuable perspective on the proposed transaction, which can help them negotiate more effectively and ultimately achieve a better outcome.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://noblecapitalmarkets.com/opinion-practice

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/160249385.pdf

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fairness-opinion.asp

http://edgar.secdatabase.com/1680/121390023011399/fs42023ex23-4_heritage.htm

Tokens.com Corp. (SMURF) – Step Towards Full Ownership of Metaverse Group

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Tokens.com Corp is a publicly traded company that invests in Web3 assets and businesses focused on the Metaverse, NFTs, DeFi, and gaming based digital assets. Tokens.com is the majority owner of Metaverse Group, one of the world’s first virtual real estate companies. Hulk Labs, a wholly-owned Tokens.com subsidiary, focuses on investing in play-to-earn revenue generating gaming tokens and NFTs. Additionally, Tokens.com owns and stakes crypto assets to earn additional tokens. Through its growing digital assets and NFTs, Tokens.com provides public market investors with a simple and secure way to gain exposure to Web3.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

An Offer. Yesterday, Tokens.com announced an agreement with the Board of Directors of Metaverse Group to acquire all issued and outstanding shares that Tokens.com does not already own. Currently, the Company owns roughly 55.2% of Metaverse Group, or 50.2% on a diluted basis, and Tokens.com will issue 24.38 million common shares for the acquisition, if approved, equal to approximately USD$3.5 million as of yesterday’s closing price.

The Offer Continued. Each minority Metaverse Group shareholder will receive approximately 0.34 Tokens.com shares per Metaverse Group share. The offer is pending approval of Metaverse Group shareholders and a meeting will take place on April 26th, 2023, as well as approval by the NEO Exchange, and is expected to close in May 2023. We expect the offer will be approved by the shareholders and the exchange.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Twitter is Now Seated with eTORO, Which is a Breakthrough Expansion for Both

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Web Summit (Flickr)

Elon Musk Announces New Financial Functionality on Twitter

Starting today, Twitter will provide tweeters the ability to buy and sell stocks and crypto on its platform via eTORO. Twitter owner, Elon Musk has been indicating he intends to turn the popular micro-blogging platform into a “super app.” Today’s move shows substantial headway in allowing financial transactions to be conducted on the social media platform. Other company goals since Musk’s purchase of the company include ride hailing, and attracting video influencers that may be disenchanted with YouTube restrictions on speech.  

What Will the Twitter eTORO Partnership Provide?

Founded in 2007, eTORO has become one of the largest social investment networks and trading platforms. According to its website, it is “built on social collaboration and investor education: a community where users can connect, share, and learn.”

Twitter will partner with the platform to allow users (known as tweeters and Twitterers) to trade stocks and cryptocurrencies as part of a deal with the social investing company.

This partnership will provide access to view charts and trade stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other investment assets from eToro via its mobile platform. Together this significantly expands real-time trading data available to users who already have access on Twitter to real-time data, however this arrangement adds all the bells and whistles a modern trading app can provide.

Twitter will be expanding its use of cashtags as well. Twitter added pricing data for $Cashtags (company ticker preceded by “$”) in December 2022. Since January, there have been more than 420 million searches using Cashtags – the number of searches averages 4.7 million a day.

eToro CEO Yoni Assia told CNBC the deal will help better connect the two brands, adding that in recent years its users have increasingly turned to Twitter to “educate themselves about the markets.”

Assia said there is a great deal of “very high quality” content available in real-time and that the partnership with Twitter will help eToro expand to reach new audiences tapping this as a source of information.

Update on Elon

After Musk’s purchase of Twitter, many advertisers stepped back and watched to see how far the company would go to allow less moderated interaction. On Wednesday (April 12) Musk said that “almost all” advertisers had returned to the app. However, Stellantis and Volkswagen, two large competitors with Musk run Tesla, said they do not yet plan to resume advertising.

Musk told a Morgan Stanley conference last month he wants Twitter to become “the biggest financial institution in the world.” This begs those that follow Musk to ask, “Why stop there, why not include Mars?”

What Else

Be sure to follow Channelchek on Twitter (@channelchek) to stay up to date on market insights, news, videos, and of course, top-tier investment analyst research on small and microcap opportunities.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.etoro.com/en-us/about/

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/13/twitter-to-let-users-access-stocks-crypto-via-etoro-in-finance-push.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2023/04/13/twitter-will-let-users-buy-stocks-and-crypto-as-elon-musk-pushes-for-everything-app/?sh=332662a26882

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2023-03-07/elon-musk-speaks-at-morgan-stanley-conference

Unexpected Adjustments Among Today’s Self-Directed Investors

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Focal Foto (Flickr)

How Decision-Making and Market Impact is Shifting for Retail Investors

Retail investors’ preferences change over time. This impacts sector strength and the overall direction of markets. Even the methods of interacting with exchanges change as newer products like trading apps, artificial intelligence, and exchange-traded products (ETP) become available.

The influence retail has is growing, and anecdotally shifting preferences happen more quickly. Within this category, there are self-directed investors with different knowledge bases and at different stages of their lives. As people move through different stages, their concerns, outlooks, and risk tolerances adjust. Nasdaq just published its second annual survey of retail investors to measure how their interests are changing and what impact that may have. The survey of 2,000 investors from Gen Z to Baby Boomers uncovered some surprising trends in decision-making, fears, comfort zones, and asset class preferences.

Generational Groupings

There were a number of commonalities exposed by the Nasdaq survey between the different generations. They all listed their greatest concerns to be inflation and recession, but while the youngest (Gen Z, born 1997 – 2012) found housing and real estate a deep concern, the oldest group (Baby Boomers, born 1946 – 1964) are more concerned about tax rate changes. The generations in the middle (Gen X born 1965 –1980) and (Millennials born 1981 – 1996) show a greater concern over interest rate changes.

The survey question sought to understand how much time investors in each generation spent researching buy and sell investment decisions. Of Gen Z, on average 48% spent less than an hour, while 3% of these younger adults evaluated the transaction for at least a month. The next age category, Millennials, spent a bit more time on diligence. Only 28% would buy or sell with less than an hour of thought put into the transaction. Of this group, 4% took a month or longer to decide. This trend toward more time researching research continued as the survey reveals the Gen X greater propensity to spend more time evaluating before a purchase. Only 15% would press the buy or sell button with less than an hour spent understanding the investment – 7% of Gen X investors say they take a month or longer.

A big difference between the youngest and the oldest, is that among the Gen Z investors, although almost half said they spend fewer than 60 minutes researching, 0% said they did not research at all. Of the Baby Boomers surveyed, 24% indicated they spend no time researching before they buy or sell. It’s unclear if this is because the older group is less tech savvy, hires a professional to do the research, or believes they have the knowledge to move without digging deeper.

Overlap in Generational Preferences

Data Sources: Nasdaq

Other Trends

Despite their top concerns listed as recession and inflation, 71% of Gen Z and 50% of Millennials say they are investing more aggressively. This is in stark difference to the 9% of Boomers and 20% of Gen X describing their strategies as more aggressive than the previous year.

The influence of Twitter, Facebook and even TikTok keeps expanding. 73% of Gen Z use TikTok as a source for investment information. This is an 18% increase from the prior year. Baby boomer TikTok investment use rose by 16% to its current 25%.

The investment themes from year-to-year show ESG and crypto interest sinking, while robotics and other autonomous technology is where the focus has increased most. Younger investors are more active in their investments than before, and more frequently conducting their own research ahead of transacting. Investors of all ages are more likely to consider alternative options than they had before, these could include options, cryptocurrencies, exchange traded products, etc.

Competition among brokerage platforms is as fierce as it is in any innovative, tech heavy industry. The availability of advanced technology and commission-free trading have made investing more accessible, especially for the younger investors.

Take Away

The second annual survey conducted by Nasdaq indicates that the retail investor growth and power we’ve experienced in recent years was not a fad, it is growing and becoming more sophisticated. They are more influential and should be understood as they are here to stay. This is expected to continue to disrupt and influence markets dramatically.

As retail trends take a higher position of importance in defining the day-to-day challenges of investing and mapping the markets’ future, these self-directed investors are finding more services to accommodate them. One source is the Channelchek platform where retail and institutional investors, of all ages can review research reports, absorb video discussions with management of interesting opportunities, expand understanding through daily articles, and, if relevant, attend a roadshow to meet a particular company’s management.  

Signup for Channelchek emails and full access here.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/retail-revival%3A-how-a-year-of-market-volatility-reshaped-investor-strategies

https://nd.nasdaq.com/GENZ

https://nd.nasdaq.com/Millennials

https://nd.nasdaq.com/GENX

https://nd.nasdaq.com/BabyBoomers

Does it Make Sense to Invest New IRA Deposits in a Confusing Market?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Marco Verch (Flickr)

With New Money Deposited Into Their IRA Accounts, Savers Are Faced With an Age-Old Question

With days until the IRS is expecting our tax filings, IRA season is in full swing. With this comes contributions to IRA accounts and individual investment decisions. This year economic uncertainty is a regular topic of conversation; the question has come up in both personal and professional conversations whether or not this money should be invested immediately or wait for a clearer sign of economic and market direction. I asked three financial professionals, each of whose opinion I respect. Did I get three different answers? You be the judge.

Robert R. Johnson, PhD, CFA, CAIA, is the former deputy CEO of the CFA Institute and was President of the College of Financial Services. Currently Dr. Johnson is a Professor of Finance, Heider College of Business at Creighton University. His credentials also include co-author of The Tools and Techniques of Investment Planning, Strategic Value Investing, Investment Banking for Dummies, and others. Overall, his response argues for not shying away from what traditionally has been better-performing investments over time.

He highlighted that investing for as long as possible should involve not waiting until a week before the tax date and making a maximum deposit. If your money is sitting in cash rather than invested, there is a cash performance drag as cash including money markets, more often than not, is a worse performer than equities.

The finance professor pointed out the statistical truth that holding significant amounts of cash ensures that one will suffer significant opportunity losses. Johnson says, “when it comes to building wealth, one can either sleep well or eat well.” He explains, “investing conservatively allows one to sleep well, as there isn’t much volatility. But, it doesn’t allow you to eat well in the long run because your account won’t grow much.”

He backs this up with data compiled by Ibbotson Associates data on large capitalization stocks (think S&P 500), which returned 10.1% compounded annually from 1926-2022. Johnson points out that during the same years, government bonds returned 5.2% annually and T-bills returned 3.2% annually. He explained, “to put it in perspective, $1.00 in invested in the S&P 500 at the start of 1926 would have grown to $11,307.59 (with all dividends reinvested).” He then compared, “that same dollar invested in T-bills would have grown to $21.23.”

What to invest in is certainly an important decision, Dr. Johnson explained, “The surest way to build wealth over long time horizons is to invest in a diversified portfolio of common stocks. Someone with a long time horizon should not have exposure to money market instruments, yet many investors do because they fear the volatility of the stock market.”

Dennie Ceelen, CFP has been part of the Noble Capital Markets Private Client Group in Boca Raton, FL since 2002. He provides wealth management services to NOBLE Clients. He’s also a committee member of The Society of Financial Service Professionals.

When asked if one should invest or wait, he apologetically answered, “it depends.”

Mr. Ceelen explains that when it comes to investments, one size does not fit all. A nineteen-year-old with little or no table income and only an extra $1,000 to put away may be better off investing in education or a car to get them to work. This idea of no IRA deposit at all could even be true of a couple saving to buy their first home. If putting the maximum away for retirement, 40 years away, prevents the purchase of a home in the next year or two, it may not make sense to fund an IRA at all for them this tax year.

For those that are regularly funding an IRA he said, “if your timeline is 30-years until you retire, invest immediately.” Ceelen explained, the general rule of thumb is that the markets over time will go up, the market will be higher in 30 years,” is the expectation based on past experience.

While talking about those with far less than 30-years until retirement, he pulled out a simple spreadsheet that shows that markets don’t always go up. A screenshot of this spreadsheet of major index performance from the close of business the last day of 2021 until March 29, 2023 is provided below.

After 15-months of market downturn, history suggests the losses are temporary

Dennie Ceelen used the spreadsheet to show why he said “it depends.” He said, “if you are retiring in the next two years, make the contribution, take advantage of the tax break but let it sit in cash, or take advantage of the high rates on money markets/short term CD’s.”

“There is no reason to partake in this volatile market if you are that close to retirement,” he cautioned for those close to retirement. Making decisions like this is why many hire financial professionals.

David M. Wright, CLU, ChFC, president and owner of Wright Financial Group, with offices in Ohio and Florida is a 36-year veteran in the financial services industry. He hosts a local radio show called Retirement Income Source with David Wright, and is a frequent guest on TD Ameritrade Insights. One of Mr. Wright’s focuses is on providing workable retirement solutions for those in or close to retirement. His upcoming book, Bonfire of the Sanities: Reset Your Retirement Portfolio for Today’s Financial Lunacy, will be available later this year.

“How you invest your IRA for the 2022-23 tax season has been and always will be a function of your time horizon and propensity for risk,” Wright was quick to point out.  

Wright’s explanation as to whether the timing is right also included what he believes would be the more suitable investment. He offered, “for individuals who are more than 10-15 years away from needing to access their cash, choosing high quality, dividend-paying companies with good cash flow are probably the best bet right now, given the economic tightening that will certainly impact more highly leveraged companies that have to refinance their debt in the future.” He cautioned that those in the age category above,  “growth stocks, in particular those that pay very small dividends will probably be the most impacted by the Federal Reserve’s mandate to fight inflation by raising rates.”

For those even closer to retirement, five to ten years, he said that a dollar-cost averaging strategy to more slowly enter the market is more prudent,  “you are systematically buying into the market without worrying about the purchase price of the investment itself,” Wright said.   

“For those individuals that are within five years or less of retirement, pushing the pause button and purchasing short duration treasuries probably makes the most sense right now due to the higher yields offered courtesy of the Federal Reserve – with 3 month yields 4.8% at the moment,” David Wright explained for those with less time before needing the account for living expenses.

Wright added one more note of advice for the current tax season,  “with the mixed signals of financial news from bank failures to reducing inflation, it probably makes sense to be more cautious right now until the financial storms subside.”

Take Away

There are many right ways to do anything. Multiply that by the different stages of life, and then there are many more. If you are making a last-minute 2022 tax year IRA deposit, hopefully, there are words of wisdom among these three professionals that have been useful.

Overall it seems time in the market is expected to outperform time out of the market, with the caveat, over the short term, anything can happen.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek